Ungleiche Narben - Verteilungseffekte der Pandemie - Deutscher Juristentag, 18. September 2020 - Europa EU
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Ungleiche Narben –
Verteilungseffekte
der Pandemie
Deutscher Juristentag,
18. September 2020
Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel
Mitglied des Direktoriums der Europäischen Zentralbank
www.ecb.europa.eu ©Starke Unterschiede in der Betroffenheit durch COVID-19
Gesamtzahl der COVID-19-Infektionen im internationalen Zahl aktiver COVID-19-Infektionen im europäischen
Vergleich (Pro Millionen Einwohner) Vergleich (Pro Millionen Einwohner)
18,000 9,000
South ES
16,000 America 8,000
14,000 7,000
North BE
12,000 America 6,000
10,000 5,000 NL
Rest of
8,000 Europe 4,000
6,000 (ex-EU) 3,000 FR
European
4,000 Union 2,000
IT
2,000 1,000
Rest of the
0 World 0 DE
Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
Source: Bloomberg.
Note: Counts are subject to change as governments survey and confirm cases. Data are based on Source: Bloomberg.
reported infection numbers as of midnight EST at each date. Sources also include Johns Hopkins Note: Active case numbers based on a 7-day moving average. Counts are subject to change as
University, World Health Organization, DXY, NHC, BNO News, China CDC, European CDC, US CDC, governments survey and confirm cases. Data are based on reported values as of midnight EST at each
Italy Ministry of Health, Hong Kong Department of Health, Macau Government, Taiwan CDC, date. Based on population data as of 3 September 2020. Sources include Johns Hopkins University,
Government of Canada, Australia Government Department of Health, and Ministry of Health Singapore. World Health Organization, DXY, NHC, BNO News, European CDC, Italy Ministry of Health.
2 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Scharfer Einbruch der Wirtschaftsleistung bei ausgeprägter Heterogenität
Reales Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP): Euroraum Jährliches Wachstum des realen BIP: Deutschland,
(Index: 2019Q4 = 100) Frankreich, Italien und Spanien (Prozent)
2019 2020 (forecast) 2021 (forecast)
10
110 8
6
105
4
100 2
95 0
-2
90 -4
85 -6
-8
80
-10
75 -12
2019 2020 2021 2022 DE FR IT ES
Source: ECB (Macroeconomic Projection Exercise, September 2020). Source: European Commission (Summer Economic Forecast, July 2020).
Note: The grey area indicates the range of ECB staff projections that cover the different pandemic
scenarios included in the Macroeconomic Projection Exercise.
3 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Unterschiede der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
aufgrund der Lockdown-Maßnahmen und struktureller Faktoren
Ausmaß staatlicher Einschränkungen vs. Prognose des Anteil Tourismus an Dienstleistungsexporten vs.
realen BIP-Wachstums in 2020 (Index, Prozent) Prognose des realen BIP-Wachstums in 2020 (Prozent)
-4 -4
-5 -5
Real GDP growth in 2020 (%)
Real GDP growth in 2020 (%)
LU MT
-6 DE -6
FI LU FI DE
NL
-7 AT -7 NL LV SI
EE LV SI LT CY AT
CY LT EE
-8 -8
EA IE IE
-9 SK BE -9 BE SK GR
GR
-10 PT -10 PT
FR FR
-11 ES -11 ES
IT IT
-12 -12
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Stringency Index (average 1 March-30 June) Travel exports in % of total services exports
Source: European Commission (Summer Economic Forecast, July 2020), University of Oxford. Source: European Commission (Summer Economic Forecast, July 2020), Eurostat Balance of
Note: The Oxford Stringency Index defines the stringency of national crisis measures between 0 (no Payments.
restrictions) and 100 (maximum level of restrictions).
4 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Abfederung der Krise durch fiskalische Maßnahmen
Anteil der Beschäftigten in den von Einschränkungen Arbeitslosenquote und Erwerbstätige in Kurzarbeit
stark betroffenen Wirtschaftssektoren (Prozent) (Prozent)
35 Unemployment rate Share of workers in job retention schemes
Unemployment rate in February
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5 5
0 0
ES IT DE FR NL BE DE FR IT ES
Source: EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), 2018. Source: Eurostat; Bundesagentur für Arbeit and ifo Institute Munich; Ministère du Travail, de L’Emploi et de
Note: The chart shows the distribution of the share of employees in lockdown sectors across 6 L’Insertion; INPS; Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones, and ECB staff computations.
largest euro area countries. Lockdown sectors are: wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor Latest observation: July 2020 for the unemployment rate; July 2020 for the number of workers in ERTE in
vehicles and motorcycles; transporting and storage; accommodation and food service activities; arts, Spain; June 2020 for the number of workers in Kurzarbeit in Germany and Activité Partielle in France; May
entertainment and recreation (sectors G, H, I and R in the Statistical Classification of Economic 2020 for the number of workers in Cassa Integrazione in Italy.
Activities in the European Community (NACE) classification).
5 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Fiskalische Spielräume begrenzen fiskalische Reaktionen
Staatsverschuldung im Euroraum: Prognose des realen BIP-Wachstums für 2020 und
2019 vs. Prognose für 2021 (Prozent des BIP) Umfang des nationalen fiskalischen Stimulus (Prozent)
2019 2021 Real GDP growth Fiscal stimulus
200
180 Germany
160
Euro Area
140
120 Italy
100
France
80
60 Spain
40
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
20
Source: European Commission (Ameco).
0 Note: Real GDP growth estimates are based on data published by the European Commission (Summer
Economic Forecast, July 2020). Fiscal stimulus estimates are based on data published by the European
SK
SI
EE
AT
EA
ES
BE
PT
FI
GR
FR
NL
IE
DE
CY
IT
LU
LT
LV
MT
Commission (Spring Economic Forecast, May 2020), the most recent harmonised projection. These
estimates therefore do not include the latest announcements of fiscal support measures. Fiscal stimulus
Source: European Commission (Spring Economic Forecast, May 2020). is calculated as the change in the primary deficit, adjusted for cyclical effects.
6 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Verhinderung einer Finanzkrise und Rückgang der Fragmentierung
durch die Geldpolitik
Indikator für systemischen Stress im Finanzmarkt Renditedifferenz zu 10-jährigen deutschen
(CISS) (Index) Staatsanleihen (Basispunkte)
Euro area US Italy Greece Portugal Spain
1.0 1.0 450
PEPP PEPP French-
0.9 0.9 400
announce- announcement German
0.8 0.8 ment 350 recovery fund
0.7 proposal
0.7 300
0.6 0.6
250
0.5 0.5
200
0.4 0.4
150
0.3 0.3
0.2 100
0.2
0.1 0.1 50
0.0 0.0 0
1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 01-Jan 01-Jun Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
Source: ECB Working Paper No. 1426. Source: Bloomberg.
Note: CISS denotes the Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (0 = No stress,1 = High stress). The Latest observation: 16 September 2020.
indicator aggregates stress signals from money, bond, equity and foreign
exchange markets.
Latest observation: 14 September 2020. 7 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Heterogene Auswirkungen der Krise auf Einkommensgruppen
Anteil der Erwerbstätigen in Lockdown-Sektoren Ausgabenkategorien und Ersparnisse nach
nach Einkommensquintilen (Prozent) Einkommensquintilen (Euro)
45 Saving Postponable spending
Spending restricted by lockdown Unaffected spending (necessities)
40 80000
35
60000
30
25 40000
20
20000
15
10 0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100
5 Source: Household Budget Survey.
Note: The chart shows the structure of household expenditures (spending) and saving across
income quintiles. Blue bars denote necessities, items unaffected by lockdown, such as food at
0 home, housing and utilities, health items, communications and education. Yellow bars denote items
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 restricted by the lockdown, such as food in restaurants, transport services, holidays, hotels and
cultural services. Red bars denote postponable spending items, such as purchases of motor
Source: EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), 2018; Ireland and Slovakia 2017.
vehicles, clothing and footwear, and furnishings and furniture. Green bars show household saving.
Note: The chart shows the distribution of the share of employees in lockdown sectors across quintiles
The chart shows an aggregate of Germany, Spain and France.
of the income distribution in the euro area.
8 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Bildung senkt Betroffenheit durch Lockdown-Maßnahmen,
Home Schooling verschärft Bildungsunterschiede
Anteil der Arbeitnehmer mit tertiärem Bildungsabschluss Leistungsnachweise je nach geschätztem Haushalts-
vs. Anteil der Arbeitsstunden im Home Office (Prozent) einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten (Index)
100% High Low Middle
% home office hours (late March)
60
Authorities announce and
80% Public services Financial enforce school closures to
Education 40 slow down the spread of
Environment,
Business COVID-19 infections
culture &
60% services 20
recreation
Transport &
communication Other 0
40% Industry
Retail
Healthcare & -20
Construction
20% Catering welfare
-40
0% -60
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May
% workers with tertiary education
Source: von Gaudecker et al. (2020), Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences (LISS), Source: Zearn, Inc., Opportunity Insights.
CentERdata/Tilburg University. Note: Average number of students using Zearn math teaching program (in a week) relative to January
Note: Data refer to survey results obtained in the Netherlands between 20 March and 31 March 2020. 6-February 7, 2020. The lines show ZIP codes in bottom 25% of income [low], 25%-75% [middle] and
Response rate: 80% (5,544 individuals). above 75% [high]. A similar chart was published by The Economist on 27 July 2020.
9 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Jüngere Arbeitnehmer und Frauen
besonders von Lockdown-Maßnahmen betroffen
Arbeitsangebot in Rezessionen nach Geschlecht
Anteil der Erwerbstätigen in Lockdown-Sektoren (Verhältnis der Arbeitsstunden weiblich vs. männlich,
nach Alter und Geschlecht (Prozent) Quartale nach Beginn der Rezession)
Male Female 0.9
45
0.88 To be formatted
40
0.86
35
0.84
30
0.82
25
Regular recession
0.8
20 Pandemic recession
15 0.78
10 0.76
5 0.74
0 0.72
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ All 0 5 10 15 20
Source: EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), 2018; Ireland and Slovakia 2017. Source: Alon, Doepke, Olmstead-Rumsey and Tertilt (2020).
Note: The chart shows the distribution of the share of employees in lockdown sectors across age and Note: Chart is based on Figure 4 in the latest available paper draft (August 2020).
gender.
10 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!
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