Uncertain recovery Developed markets outlook 2021 - TLIM - Triodos ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Uncertain
recovery
Developed markets
outlook 2021
Investment Outlook
TLIMDue to the COVID-19-related lockdown measures, 2020 will go into the record books
as the year that saw the deepest global recession in peacetime. For 2021, we expect
global economic activity to rebound, although the recovery will likely be slow amidst
recurring restrictive measures. P
re-pandemic activity levels can only be reached
once a vaccine has become widely available. Despite positive vaccine trial results,
we don’t expect this to happen before the final quarter of 2021. In the meantime,
further stimulus will be needed. Bold policy choices need to be made so that the
recovery can become sustainable and inclusive. This could be a vital first step
towards a new economic system, one that is equipped to address the challenges of
our time: climate change, biodiversity loss and inequality.Developed Markets Outlook 2021
An uncertain recovery: divided US suits the global status quo Joeri de Wilde
The US is still the largest economy in the world, with Global economy: growth rebound with unable to reach pre-pandemic activity levels before This trend may very well to continue in 2021, a worrying
over 24% of global GDP. The change of leadership in much uncertainty the final quarter of 2021, when a substantial part of realisation.
Washington could, in theory, be the spark that ignites their citizens have been vaccinated. In our outlook
the much-needed global reset of our economic system. In 2020, we project global economic activity to for 2020, we warned about the ultra-loose global For 2021, we expect global economic activity to
President-elect Joe Biden wants the US to ‘lead the contract by an astonishing 4.1%. Developed economies monetary stance that merely sustained the ongoing rebound by 4.9% and developed economies to grow
world’ to address climate change and protectionism. are expected to experience an aggregated growth inflation of asset prices and further financialisation of by an aggregated 3.7%. There is a great deal of
This could speed up the global recovery and make contraction of 5.5%, as several regions have been hit the economy. Of course, we did not envision that this uncertainty surrounding this forecast, which relates
it more sustainable. In practice this will be a very by multiple COVID-19 infection waves. Countries have would only be the tip of the iceberg. In 2020, financial to vaccine timelines and the continued need for
difficult task, however. A most likely Republican- started to recover since the first series of lockdowns, markets have become even more detached from the restrictive measures. In our baseline scenario, we
controlled Senate will have a final say in almost any supported by unprecedented monetary and fiscal real economy, floating in the air while the real, ‘earthly’ assume that several vaccines will be approved by early
of Biden’s decisions, and reluctance towards free stimulus. Nevertheless, we assume they will be economic activities are in the midst of a hurricane. 2021, with developed economies able to vaccinate
trade is also present within the Democratic Party. The
waning international dominance of the US also asks for
close cooperation with friendly nations in a search for
global compromises, but the US will find it hard to step
away from the idea of American hegemony. The result
will likely be watered down policy from the US and a
struggle to reach ground-breaking agreements with
other global powers. This suits the global status quo
and makes a sustainable and inclusive global recovery
less likely.
Environmental Social (Geo) Political
1. Extreme weather 1. Unemployment 1. Protectionism
2. Pandemics 2. Populism 2. Brexit
3. Biodiversity loss 3. Wage and wealth inequality 3. Ongoing political tensions in US and
eurozone
3Developed Markets Outlook 2021
their most vulnerable citizens in the first half of the the second half of the year, resulting in a swift return Bankruptcies, permanent job losses and trade can further pick up. Goods consumption has
year. This implies that restrictive measures will be to pre-pandemic activity levels. This would obviously sectoral divergence already recovered, partly substituting demand for
necessary until at least mid-2021. After that, reduced boost our expectations for global economic activity in services. Overall, this means that countries that are
pressure on hospitals will allow developed economies 2021. In the second half of the year, a possible relief Although economic growth in developed economies disproportionately dependent on the most impacted
to gradually return to pre-pandemic activity levels, rally could even make up for some of the incurred is set to rebound in 2021, the expected recovery will service sectors such as the hospitality sector (e.g.
with most countries reaching normal activity levels in losses in economic activity, with households spending likely be slow and unequal. Many of the negative Italy, Spain, United Kingdom) will fall further behind in
the final quarter of 2021. Economic growth rates for excessively once restrictions are permanently lifted. effects of 2020’s recession have been postponed by the first half of 2021, while goods-producing economies
the United States and Japan are expected to rebound Unrelated to vaccine timelines, the US Democrats the unprecedented fiscal and monetary measures. (e.g. Germany, several Asian countries) are better
by 3.2% and 2.9% in 2021, whereas the eurozone and gaining control of the Senate would also positively Job retention schemes have prevented significant positioned for an early recovery. Leisure-dependent
the UK are expected to report growth rates of 4.7% affect global economic activity in 2021. rises in unemployment in most developed countries, countries could potentially catch up in the second half
and 4.9%. Growth rates for the US and Japan will be and support to businesses has kept bankruptcies at of 2021 if restrictive measures are permanently lifted
somewhat lower because these countries are set to The main downside risk is slow vaccine deployment. artificially low levels. However, in the likely case that and relief spending materialises.
experience a less severe contraction in 2020, as a Vaccine approvement could be delayed and large-scale social restrictions continue to be required until at least
result of less stringent and/or shorter lockdowns. production, distribution and vaccination might not go mid-2021, even substantial additional policy measures Within countries, sectoral divergence will further
as smoothly as hoped for. A decreased willingness of might prove to be insufficient. The result would be increase inequality. Low-income households will
part of the global population to get vaccinated could solvency issues for businesses leading to bankruptcies continue to be disproportionately impacted, as they are
Risks are determined by vaccination be an important reason for delay. In this downside and job losses, leaving permanent economic scars as overrepresented in the shutdown sectors and are often
timelines scenario, we assume that developed economies will viable businesses disappear and discouraged workers hired on a temporary basis. Small to medium-sized
be unable to vaccinate their most vulnerable citizens drop out of the labour force. enterprises will also bear the brunt through tightening
The biggest risks to our outlook concern vaccination before late 2021. This will mean a full year of recurring credit conditions, as they have to rely on bank loans.
timelines Shortened vaccination timelines are a restrictive measures that prevent a return to pre- Recurring restrictions will likely enlarge the divergence Large, listed companies, on the other hand, can raise
clear upside risk. This would entail rapid approval, pandemic activity levels. Improved knowledge on between sectors and regions. The service sector has capital through bond and share issuances, which due
production, distribution and implementation of several treatment and spreading and scaled up track-and- been the main victim of social restrictions and will to implemented policies have become cheap (i.e. low
highly effective vaccines, meaning all developed trace capacity may gradually require less severe continue to bear the brunt in the first half of 2021. interest rate environment and bullish equity market
economies would be able to vaccinate most of their restrictions, however. Other downside risks, associated However, since we don’t expect the reimplementation sentiment).
citizens before mid-2021. In this positive scenario, with environmental, social and (geo-)political factors of complete lockdowns, the manufacturing sector
restrictive measures wouldn’t be necessary anymore in are depicted on the previous page. can probably continue its operations and global
4Developed Markets Outlook 2021
Figure 1 Size of the hospitality sector (% of GDP) of US tech companies in the EU will also remain a support for international engagement, however,
divisive force between the traditional allies. reducing the chances for decisive US foreign policy
Spain
actions.
Italy
Indonesia With respect to the EU-UK relationship, Biden’s
Japan election victory will put pressure on the UK to
UK
US
forge a trade deal with the EU. Biden has stated Divided US unfavourable for global
France several times that Brexit was a geopolitical mistake growth prospects
Turkey and that a UK-US trade deal would become more
Australia
unlikely if Johnson undermined the Northern Ireland Reduced chances of a Democratic majority in the
S. Korea
Taiwan peace process. The EU and UK are still miles apart Senate will likely force US president-elect Biden to
Brazil on several key issues. We expect that a deal will search for compromises. This does not favour his
Canada
eventually be reached, as this is in the best interest plans for a huge fiscal stimulus package financed by
Mexico
China of both parties, but ratification of the deal might be increased corporate and personal taxation. The result
Netherlands pushed further into the future, extending the period would likely be a less significant US-originated fiscal
Germany
of uncertainty. impulse for global growth early 2021. Later in the year,
India
Poland a more forward-looking stimulus package that focuses
Russia We expect the US to continue to oppose China’s on investments in physical and digital infrastructure
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 increasing global dominance, but the tone of voice may be agreed on, as there is also support for such
Source: Capital Economics will be more diplomatic and modest progress on the investments within the Republican Party.
precarious phase one trade deal could potentially be
Biden’s presidency reduces geopolitical allies such as the EU will be strengthened again, and made. Tensions will likely continue to dominate the For the eurozone and Japan, a more limited US
tensions trade barriers potentially reduced. However, opposition relationship. The US is also likely to become more fiscal package likely means less demand originating
from a Republican-controlled Senate and a substantial vocal regarding international conflicts, which might from their largest export partner. On top of that,
Biden’s victory in the US presidential elections will part of the population might make it difficult to result in increased tensions with Russia, Iran, Turkey widespread sympathy for protectionism in the US
change the geopolitical landscape in 2021. We expect completely step away from the current protectionism. and North Korea, although Biden did pledge to return makes it difficult for Biden to completely step away
the US to return to diplomacy and break away from Disputes on key issues such as regulation and taxation to the nuclear power agreement with Iran. A polarised from the built-up trade frictions, no matter the result
Trump’s America First agenda. Relations with Western US population will make it more difficult to find broad in the Senate. For the eurozone, this adds to the
5Developed Markets Outlook 2021
trouble within the region caused by the resurgence Low inflation and high unemployment Figure 2 Inflation expectations (five year forward rates, %)
of the coronavirus in the final quarter of 2020, where guarantee loose monetary stance
5
restrictive measures have again lowered economic
activity. Japan has been less severely impacted Although business confidence in developed
by domestic COVID-19 infections than most other economies has returned to pre-pandemic levels, 4
developed economies, but the recovery has so far consumer confidence has remained subdued. We
been rather sluggish. On top of that, Japan is still expect this discrepancy to continue in 2021, as the
3
struggling with the low-growth-low-productivity recent positive vaccine developments might trigger
paradigm from before the COVID-19 crisis. This will firms to anticipate a future without restrictions and
likely force the governments of the eurozone countries consequently increase investments. Consumers, on 2
and Japan to continue their sizable fiscal support the other hand, could remain cautious until they have
programmes well into 2021. been vaccinated, leading to weak consumer demand
1
and elevated levels of saving until at least mid-2021.
For the UK, much of its prosperity in 2021 depends on Continued restrictive measures also limit the options
the result of the UK-EU trade negotiations. However, to spend money. Moreover, an inability to return to 0
even when a trade deal arrives, the terms will be less pre-pandemic activity levels before the final quarter
favourable than they are now. In combination with of 2021 will keep developed market unemployment
-1
the recent reimplementation of severe restrictive at elevated levels, with the risk of future solvency
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
measures, this likely means that the UK will be one of issues leading to further job losses. This means a
United States United Kingdom Euro area Japan
the laggards of the developed market recovery. The UK lack of wage pressure on labour costs. As a result,
will therefore be eager to increase its trade with the for 2021 we expect inflation to stay below the Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Triodos Investment Management
US, preferably through a trade deal. In any case, trade respective developed market central bank targets
between the two countries will almost certainly benefit (around 2%). stance throughout 2021. We expect that policy interest fiscal stimulus remains absent and economic data
from a sizable US fiscal stimulus package. rates will be kept on hold, but central banks will not deteriorates. In combination with a gradual global
The combination of high unemployment and low hesitate to take additional easing measures in case recovery, the continued easing of the Fed will likely
inflation expectations guarantees that all major downside risks materialise. The US Federal Reserve weaken the US dollar. In general, if fiscal policy
central banks will maintain their ultra-accommodative (Fed) will likely lead the way in case sizable additional measures disappoint or the coronavirus causes new
6Developed Markets Outlook 2021
disruptions, central banks will likely step in with that facilitate a green and inclusive recovery, thereby Growth projections 2020-2021
additional measures. The European Central Bank catalysing the necessary transition towards a new
is already expected to expand its emergency bond economic system focused on long-term wellbeing.
buying programme (PEPP) and favourable long-term Immediate action is required. GDP growth Headline inflation
bank funding operations (TLTRO) in its last meeting 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
of 2020. Implementation of the International Monetary
Global 2.8 -4.1 4.9 3.6 3.2 2.8
Fund’s recommendations for public investment in
green infrastructure, adequate carbon pricing and US 2.2 -3.7 3.2 1.8 1.2 1.8
Green and inclusive policy choices will compensation for lower income households would Euro area 1.3 -7.5 4.7 1.2 0.3 0.9
remain scarce mean significant progress. However, even the European
Belgium 1.4 -8.1 5.1 1.2 0.6 1.2
Green Deal is way too limited to genuinely act upon
In most developed economies, policy measures have these recommendations and deliver upon the Paris Germany 0.6 -5.7 4.0 1.3 0.4 1.2
understandably focused on emergency support, Climate Agreement and SDGs. Moreover, with a divided Netherlands 1.7 -5.2 3.6 2.7 1.2 1.4
thereby putting existential threats such as climate US incapable of leading the way, we are expecting
Spain 2.0 -11.8 5.2 0.8 -0.4 0.7
change and biodiversity loss on hold. We acknowledge even less government-induced progress outside
the necessity to support the economy by all possible Europe. This urgently asks for private investments UK 1.5 -11.5 4.9 1.8 0.9 1.3
means until the recovery has gained substantial that steer towards the required transition, aiming for China 6.1 2.1 7.9 2.9 2.7 2.0
strength. This avoids unnecessary permanent impact rather than merely focussing on returns. This is
Japan 0.7 -5.6 2.9 0.5 -0.1 0.3
economic scars by losing viable businesses and jobs. precisely what we will continue to do in 2021, and we
However, current global efforts are insufficient to hope others will also find a new sense of urgency to
reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. On top of jointly address short-term and longer-term challenges.
that, the economic recession induced by COVID-19
delays progress towards the world’s 2030 Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) by a further decade. Even
before the coronavirus outbreak, it became clear that
achieving the SDGs would not happen before 2080.
This asks for targeted monetary and fiscal policies
7Investment outlook
Financial markets have shown a spectacular recovery appetite. Low inflation expectations and the COVID-19- keep European capital market rates low for longer. The collapse in economic activity is likely to trigger a rise
after the COVID-19-induced freefall. Bond and equity induced recession guarantee an ultra-loose monetary same goes for credits, where the sole focus on central in downgrades. Overall, these considerations make us
markets rallied as if a swift full-blown economic environment in 2021. Fiscal stimulus could also bank measures implies continued low corporate bond want to maintain a neutral position in bonds.
recovery was imminent, once again emphasising that support investor sentiment, although the scattered yields. In this dreadful growth environment, we prefer
financial markets have become completely detached political landscape in the US might result in smaller high-quality credits with strong balance sheets, as the
from the real economy. The driving force behind the packages then hoped.
bullish investor sentiment continues to be a reliance Figure 5 Major central banks balance sheets - total assets (x 1.000 USD billions)
on perpetual monetary stimulus. We acknowledge that Based on our fundamental approach, we remain
10
this situation can continue for quite some time but cautious and do not chase the rally. Central bank
remain cautious, as we believe a reality check is bound policies not living up to investor expectations are a 9
to happen and can have huge consequences. key risk that could lead to a turnaround in market
8
sentiment, next to substantially delayed vaccine
timelines or an increase in profit warnings and 7
Monetary dominance will continue bankruptcies. This is enough reason for us to remain
6
slightly underweight in equities and neutral in bonds.
In 2020, investor sentiment was again soothed by 5
policy makers implementing huge monetary and fiscal
4
stimulus packages. This time, there was an actual Bond yields will likely remain near
crisis to justify action. As a result, the financial asset historic lows 3
bubble became rapidly inflated, with some markets
2
even surpassing their pre-COVID-19 highs. An uncanny In 2020, the COVID-19-induced recession increased
development, considering the dire state of the global safe-haven appetite and led to unprecedented 1
economy and huge uncertainty going forward. We are central bank measures, resulting in historically low
0
still convinced that valuations matter, and therefore government bond yields. For the EU, going into 2021,
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
believe that this situation cannot hold in the long term. low inflation expectations and subdued economic
Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of Japan People’s Bank of China
We do however acknowledge that there is plenty of growth prospects might force the ECB to further
stimulus in the pipeline to satisfy short-term investor increase its quantitative easing schemes. This will Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Triodos Investment Management
8Investment outlook
Equity markets remain reliant on fund, but trade uncertainty with the UK remains a Tactical asset allocation
central banks severe risk. Going forward, the main difficulty for Japan
will be subdued confidence and weak external demand
Despite the temporary corrections in 2020, global from regions where the virus still roams around. Taking Asset class Valuation Cycle Sentiment Total
equity valuations have remained elevated. Earnings all of this into account, we remain negative about Government bonds – 0 + 0
estimates have declined, but we think that the US equity, neutral to slightly positive about European
EMU government bonds – 0 + 0
anticipated broad and firm earnings recovery in 2021 equity and positive about Japanese equity.
is unrealistic. A weak global economy combined with UK Gilts – 0 + 0
a great deal of uncertainty means negative earnings US Treasuries – 0 + 0
surprises are lurking, in which case lower equity Impact opportunities
JP government bonds – 0 + 0
prices and valuations would be entirely warranted.
The continuation of the upward trend in equity markets We continue to see opportunities in the sustainable Credits – –/0 + 0
mostly depends on additional fiscal and especially investment landscape. The European Green Deal, the Euro IG corporate credits – –/0 + 0
monetary easing measures, next to continued EU’s roadmap for making its economy sustainable,
Equities – – + –/0
good news on vaccine approval, distribution and will likely gain momentum. The related development of
implementation. a green taxonomy will enable investors to steer their Europe ex UK equities 0 – 0/+ 0
investments towards more sustainable technologies UK equities + – –/0 0
The US equity market continues to look expensive, and businesses, and the creation of an EU Green Bond
US equities – – + –
both relative to other regions and from a historical Standard will deliver a uniform tool to assess green
perspective. A divided US government reduces the bonds. The Green Deal will also force companies to Japanese equities + –/0 0/+ +
likelihood of a huge fiscal stimulus package, but become more transparent and can serve as an example Emerging equities + – + +
also restrains the Biden administration with respect for the rest of the world. Besides Europe, we expect to
to corporate tax rises and increases in regulation. continue to find sustainable investment opportunities
European and Japanese markets look cheap relative in Japan. Overall, we hope that an increased sense of + = positive 0 = neutral – = negative
to the US but are still (equally) expensive in absolute urgency facilitates a renewed focus on investments in
terms. It seems eurozone political risks have somewhat climate mitigation and adaption and the fulfilment of
diminished after EU leaders agreed on a joint recovery the Sustainable Development Goals in the next 10 years.
9Disclaimer
> This document has been carefully prepared and is > This document is not intended for distribution to About Triodos Investment Management Published
presented by Triodos Investment Management. or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or November 2020
> It does not carry any right of publication or country where such distribution or use would be With over 25 years of experience as a globally active
disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. contrary to local law or regulation. impact investor, and as a wholly owned subsidiary Text
> This document is for discussion purposes only. > All copyrights patent s and other property in the of Triodos Bank, Triodos Investment Management Joeri de Wilde,
> The information and opinions in this document information contained in this document is held by has developed deep sector-specific insights across Triodos Investment Management
constitute the judgment of Triodos Investment Triodos Investment Management and shall continue Energy & Climate, Inclusive Finance, Sustainable
Management at the time specified and may be to belong to Triodos Investment Management. No Food & Agriculture, and Impact Equities and Bonds. Design and layout
subject to change without notice, they are not to be rights whatsoever are licensed or assigned or shall Offering impact solutions through private equity, Via Bertha, Utrecht
relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution otherwise pass. debt, and listed equities and bonds, our assets under
for the exercise of judgment by any recipient. Under > All copyrights patents and other property in the management amounted to EUR 4.9 billion as per Cover photo
no circumstances is it to be used or considered information contained in this document is held by 30 June 2020. Absolutvision
as an offer to sell, or solicitation of any offer to Triodos Investment Management and shall continue
buy, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon to belong to Triodos Investment Management. No Investing in positive change
in connection with any contract or commitment rights whatsoever are licensed or assigned or shall
whatsoever or be taken as investment advice. otherwise pass. For more information about our impact investment
> The content of this document is based upon sources strategies, please contact our Investor Relations
of information believed to be reliable, but no team at:
warranty or declaration, either explicit or implicit, is +31 (0)30 694 2400
given as to their accuracy or completeness. TriodosIM@triodos.com
www.triodos-im.com/impact-equities-and-bonds
TLIM
10You can also read
