UKRAINE Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA2) - Key Findings
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UKRAINE
Rapid Damage and Needs
Assessment (RDNA2)
Key Findings
OBJECTIVES AND LIMITATIONS
The overall objective was to conduct a rapid yet consistent and robust assessment
to inform reconstruction and recovery planning
Difference with RDNA1
• Priorities for 2023 estimated
• Exchange rate adjustment per July 2022
• One year of damage February 2022-2023
Limitations
• Data availability or sensitivity of data
• Sector-level not asset-level assessment
• Damages sustained after Feb 24, 2023, are
not included
Julia Burlachenko
MACROECONOMIC AND POVERTY IMPACTS
The war has taken a severe human, social, and economic toll
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrunk by 29.2 percent in
2022, and—with the continued duration of the war
uncertain—is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent in 2023
• Tax revenue collection has deteriorated significantly, and
public expenditure increased sharply to ensure delivery of
key public services during war time
• 8.1 million people are displaced across Europe (UNHCR, Feb
2023)
• 5.4 million people were internally displaced within Ukraine
with protracted (six months+) displacement prevalent (IOM,
January 2023)
• Poverty is expected to increase from 5.5 percent to 24.1
percent in 2022 (based on the poverty line of US$6.85 per
person per day), pushing an additional 7.1 million people
Julia Burlachenko
into poverty and setting back 15 years of progress
OVERALL DAMAGE AND NEEDS
D I R EC T
Safe repair & reconstruction of
DA M AG E buildings & infrastructure to R ECO N ST R U C T I O N A N D
US$135 modern & green standards
Support recovery of public
R ECOV E RY N E E D S
services & private sector
billion US$411 billion
Julia Burlachenko
$135 BN IN DAMAGE – MOST AFFECTED SECTORS
TOTAL DAMAGE (US$ BILLION)
• Significant damage to social and infrastructure sectors
Environment and
Finance and
Foresty ; $2
• Housing represents 37 percent of total damage
Banking $0 Housing $50 (US$50.4 billion), including more than 1.4 million
Commerce and
housing units affected; with over 1/3 destroyed of
Industry $11 these beyond repair
Education $4
Agriculture $9 • Transport represents 26 percent of total damage
Health $2
US$35.7 billion), incl. 12 percent of transport damages
Municipal Services… related to bridge infrastructure, and 19 percent of
transport damage related to railway infrastructure and
Water Supply and assets
Sanitation $2
• Energy represents 8 percent of total damage (US$10.6
Telecommunications and
Digital $2
Culture and Tourism $3 billion) with largest share of damage in the power
sector (close to US$6.5 billion) – highest increase in
damage since RDNA1
Transport $36
Energy and • Commerce and industry represents 8 percent of total
Extractives $11
damage (US$10.9 billion), including both private and
Source: RDNA2. Damage covers the period February 24, 2022, to February 24, 2023.
publicly-owned enterprises
$135 BN IN DAMAGE – MOST AFFECTED REGIONS
Damage < US$ 1 bn
Damage US$ 1-5.9 bn
Damage US$ 6-9.9 bn
Damage > US$ 10 bn
Regions with highest damage
• Donetska
• Kharkivska
• Luhanska
• Zaporizka
• Khersonska
• Kyivska
$411 BN IN RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS
TOTAL RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS (US$ BILLION) • Recovery and reconstruction estimates integrated green,
Finance and
resilient, and inclusive reconstruction measures and
Irrigation and Water Management of Explosive
Resource Management $9
Banking $7
Hazards $38
consider prevailing challenges with labor and material
costs and “surge” pricing
Commerce and Housing $69
Industry $23 • Transport makes up 22 percent of total needs (US$92.1
billion), subject to assumptions about the configuration of
Education $11
Agriculture $30 Ukraine’s transport networks during reconstruction
Municipal Services… Health $16 • Housing makes up 17 percent of total needs (US$68.6
billion)
Water Supply and
Sanitation $7 Social Protection and • Energy makes up 11 percent of total needs (US$47 billion)
Livelihoods $42
• Social protection and livelihoods equals 10 percent of the
Telecommunications
and Digital $5 total needs (US$41.8 billion), including social benefits and
Culture and Tourism
services, payments to IDPs and the newly impoverished
Transport $92 $7
Energy and • Explosive hazards management (humanitarian demining)
Extractives $47
makes up 9 percent (US$37.6 billion), due to massive
Source: RDNA2. Needs relate to total estimated needs covering the period 2023– urban, agricultural and forestry areas contaminated by
2033.
land mines and explosive remnants of war
RDNA1 vs RDNA2 RESULTS
SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF THE WAR BETWEEN FEBRUARY 2022 AND FEBRUARY 2023
• Damages have increased by 38 percent February 24, 2022 – May 31, 2022 June 1- August 31, 2022
• Needs have increased by 18 percent
• The overall moderate increase in needs, albeit
with major increases for specific sectors, reflects
the trajectory of the war
o High war intensity in early months
o Control restored in some initially invaded
September 1, 2022– November 30, 2022 December 1, 2022 – February 24, 2023
regions
o Targeted attacks on critical infrastructure,
with stalemate warfare in the eastern
regions
Other factors also include devaluation of the UAH and
more precise estimates of land potentially contaminated
with explosives Data source: Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), processed by assessment team.
Note: War events includes events categorized as battles and explosions/ remote violence by ACLED methodology; Hryvnia was
devalued by the National Bank of Ukraine in July 2022. The adjusted exchange rate affected data for some sectors assessed
under RDNA2.
GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES FOR 2023
Energy infrastructure
• Restoration and repair of power transmission and
distribution lines
• Restoration and decentralization of energy generation
• Strengthening the protection of the power grid
Humanitarian demining (explosive hazard
management)
• Scaling up demining activities
Housing
• Repairs of flats and private housing
Critical and social infrastructure
• Renewal of basic housing utilities and digital infrastructure
• Repairs and reconstruction of transport connections and ports
• Repairs and restoration of social and administrative
infrastructure
Private sector
• Guarantees, first loss facilities, lines of credit
• Support to small and medium-sized enterprises and agricultural
Oleksandr Kulik
sector
US14 BN IN 2023 IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES
• Out of US$14 billion, around US$9 billion in direct government • Meeting the 2023 priorities will require US$11 billion in financing
expenditure will lay the groundwork for a safe, prioritized, beyond what the government has already addressed, including
achievable, and efficient reconstruction and recovery. This will be US$6 billion for the state budget and US$5 billion in financing to
complemented by investments by key SOEs and support to sustain support SOEs and catalyze the private sector.
the private sector, including de-risking investment and trade.
2023 IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES PER GOVERNMENT PRIORITY SECTORS 2023 IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES PER TYPE OF FUNDING
Private sector- Private sector: Government:
Energy- core lines of credit, current
Commerce and Non
infrastructure ; guarantees, and expenditures;
Industry; 2,1 Government-
2,1 insurance; $1,5 $1,5
Private sector- executed
Agriculture; 0,6
Energy- payments
to operators ; 1,2 Government-
SOE investments;
Critical and $2,1 executed
Social…
Humanitarian
Demining ; 0,4
Payments to
Critical and Social
energy Government:
Infrastructure-
operators; $1,2 capital / project
Utility Services ;…
Housing ; 1,9 expenditures;
$7,8
Critical and Social
Infrastructure-
Social & Admin ; Critical and Social
1,3 Infrastructure-
Transport ; 3,5
Source: RDNA2. Sectoral definitions used in this figure are aligned with government priorities and do not match exactly with the structure of the RDNA2. Humanitarian demining refers to
explosive hazard management in the RDNA2.DAMAGE, NEEDS, AND 2023 PRIORITIES
3.5 B 1.9 B
1.3 B
0.5 B
2.1 B
0.4 B
0.6 B
Source: RDNA2. Note: US$14bn reflects 2023 investments in government-prioritized sectors. Total 2023 implementation needs across all RDNA2 sectors is US$18 billion.Summary and full report available online in
English and soon also in Ukrainian
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