Turn the Tide Unlock the new consumer path to purchase
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Turn the Tide Unlock the new consumer path to purchase MAY 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Consumer behavior The new normal Businesses must
has fundamentally has transformed unlock the new
changed the purchase normal to help
pathway revival
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal
Great [leaders] rejoice in adversity Covid-19 is an
just as brave soldiers triumph in war unprecedented
—Lucius Annaeus Seneca
epidemic
However to win in
adversity,
companies need
to tailor
strategies to
today’s unique
context and look
through layers
Facebook company Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal
While the pandemic is far from over, signs of
recovery are starting to show
Pandemic spread in different degrees across the globe Spread of disease starting to slow down in India
As of 21 May 2020
~4.9M 188 8.6
days
Decline 13.2
days
Confirmed cases globally1 Countries with cases1
Doubling rate2
April 21 May 17
UK
of doubling cases6
France
0-3 days Spain Italy
USA China Japan
Iran
Decline
3-6 days India South
170 130
As of 29 April
Korea
6-14 days
No. of red
14-30 days zones3 April 15 May 01
2020
Days
>30 days
~0.1M ~45K ~64K Recovery
15%4
Increase
~40%5
Total no. of cases1 Recovered1 Active1 Rate
April 19 May 20
Note: Continued cases and fatalities are subject to different testing, propensity, reporting standards and hence imperfect measures
1. [ NDTV Corona Virus - Live Statistics Data - accessed on 21st May 2020] 2.[BCG Analysis, Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW) website; Press reports]; 3. Press Search [Deccan Herald] [Coronavirus:
Red zone districts reduce from 170 to 130 in a fortnight]; 4. Press Search [The Economic times] [India's COVID-19 recovery rate has improved to 24.56 pc: Niti CEO]; 5. Press Search [The Economic times] [Coronavirus in
Turn the Tide
India: Recovery rate at 40%; only 6.39% cases needed hospital support]; 6. [BCG Analysis - No. of doubling days based on 7 day CAGR, Source: John Hopkins CSSE data] Unlock the new normalThe pandemic impacts the health & socio-economic
fabric; lives of consumers will not be the same
The pandemic has created a Social distancing and structural Uncertainty around income and Consumer priorities being
never-before focus on health & interventions aimed to drive weakened demand potential in re-calibrated; certain behavior
safety faster recovery near term changes will stick long term
HEALTH & SAFETY PUBLIC POLICY ECONOMICAL SOCIAL
1 4 Public Health 7 11
Income Uncertainty Consumer Sentiment
COVID-19 Cases Measures • 60% of total household expenditure
0.1M+ total cases in India1 8 of 16 categories expected to see
Social distancing enforced via in hotspots ; 45% of consumption in
reduced spends in next 6 months11
nation-wide lockdown hotspots non-essential6
• 198M workforce employed in hotspot 12
2 5 districts7 Web Traffic trends
Web Trends Medicine and Beverages with
Industry
~120% spike in online searches on 8 highest traffic growth12
Guidelines Inflation / Price Indicators8
health & immunity in India post
COVID2 12+ industries4 got relaxation in • 70 bps drop in CPI 13
restrictions • 130 bps drop in WPI Media, Smartphone Usage
3 Globally, ~3Bn average MAUs
6 9 across Facebook, WhatsApp,
Trade / Logistics Indicators9:
Demand of health products Monetary Instagram & Messenger13; 12.5%
• 35% decline in exports and
49% consumers intend to buy Relief Measures increase in smartphone screen
29% decline in imports
more vitamins, herbs and ~$13 Bn infusion by monetary time (April vs Pre-COVID)14
supplements in the coming days3 • 14% decline in retail freight traffic
relief measures by RBI5 14
10 Mobility
Market Sentiment Indicators10: 40%+ reduction in number of visits
20% decline in Nifty index since 1st Feb to public places due to lockdown
and social distancing15
Turn the Tide
Source: 1. [ NDTV Corona Virus - Live Statistics Data - accessed on 21st May 2020] ; 2. [Online Search Trends (India)] 3. [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 30- May 03 (N = 1,327)] 4. [Ministry of Home
Affairs (MHA), Govt. of India – Guidelines released on 15th April 2020 ] 5. [RBI Notification – 17th April] 6. [BCG Analysis, Source: Nielsen-Indicus database 2017-18, Hotspot list as of 15th April (MoHFW), Press Search] 7.
[BCG Analysis, Source: Hotspot list as of 15th April (MoHFW), PLFS workforce survey 2017-18, Census 2011-12 district workforce repor] 8. [CPI (MOSPI), WPI (Office of economic advisor) – Change comparison Feb 20 vs
March 20] 9. [Import-Export movement (Ministry of Commerce & Trade), Railway Traffic (Ministry of Railways) – YoY decline in March'20] 10. [Bloomberg data - As of 23-April] 11. [Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Unlock the new normal
Sentiment Survey] 12.[BCG Analysis, Source: SimilarWeb data *www.similarweb.com] 13. [Facebook Q1 2020 Earnings Release/ Call Transcript – 2.6Bn users just on Facebook] 14. [BARC Nielsen – TV + Smartphone
consumption report during crisis, 9th April 2020] 15. [Source: COVID-19 Community Mobility Report – India – Apr 17, 2020]Social distancing has been the key to fight disease
globally and in India, making it the new way of living
Social distancing advocated as key India is actively following social
measure to control COVID spread distancing guidelines
India has observed a stark drop in number of visits
CDC across public places
RETAIL & RECREATION WORKPLACE
Johns
Reduction in Reduction in
Hopkins number of visits number of visits
University ~85%2 ~65%2
compared to compared to
baseline baseline
South Korea keeps social
South Korea Strict social distancing guidelines issued for reopening
distancing post COVID-19
-qz.com workplaces3 Non-Exhaustive
Hong Kong extends social
Hong Kong
distancing measures as cases drop Seating at
-Bloomberg Gap of 1 hr.
least 6 feet
Globally strict measures followed to ensure social between shifts
away from
distancing Up to 15 April 2020
& stagger
others on job
lunch breaks
Closed public Closed sites
10+ transportation1 19+ workplaces1
Countries Countries
Turn the Tide
1. [Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker] 2. [COVID-19 Community Mobility Report (April 17, 2020) - The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3– Unlock the new normal
Feb 6, 2020]; 3. Press Search; [Live Mint] [Coronavirus lockdown rules for offices: 6 feet apart seats, one hour gap between shifts]Even in the face of adversity, there are companies
who pro-actively find opportunities to grow
14% of US companies with at least $50M sales
Success stories - Companies successfully
improve growth & margin in downturns, while 44%
weathered historical crisis
decline in both1
AMERICAN
Increasing sales growth EXPRESS
American Express was severely threatened in the 2008
A financial crisis by rising default rates and falling consumer
14% 14% demand. The company pivoted on new partnerships
and embraced digital technology. Its stock price has
risen by >1,000% in the decade since2
Shrinking
Expanding Uniqlo – a retail brand in Japan – grew from 5% to 30%
EBIT
EBIT margin market share in 2 years of downturn (1999-2000) while
margin
B growing margins – by pivoting their business model
towards the white space of consumer need created by
44% 28% the crisis3
UNIQLO
Falling sales growth
Turn the Tide
1. [Average across last four U.S. downturns since 1986; based on performance compared to three-year pre-downturn baseline for U.S. companies with at least $50M sales;. Annualized revenue growth during the Unlock the new normal
downturn period; Compared to three-year average pre-downturn EBIT margin, Source: S&P Compustat and Capital IQ, BCG Henderson Institute, BCG Valuescience, BCG analysis, Analyst reports, Annual Reports] 2.
BCG Article [Advantage in adversity: winning the next downturn] 3. [BCG Analysis, Source: BCG Valuescience, Analyst reports, Annual Reports]As the current crisis unfolds in India, near term potential
exists in pockets. Need to look at the de-averaged picture
More than 22 states have less than 20% cases1 Avenues may lie in different pockets
Data as of 23 Apr District classification as per MoHFW 218
Very High : >=10% of
80% pan India cases
guidelines on 15 Apr Non - infected districts
45
cases Non - hotspot districts
Population (Millions)3
High : >=3%,Spending sentiment translating differently across
categories; marketers need to react accordingly
Right strategic actions needed to win disproportionate share Marketers will need to identify pockets of opportunities
“Growing” Categories Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 'Shrinking' Categories Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
Categories with net increase in spends 23-26th Mar 17-20th Apr 30 Apr-03th May Categories with net decrease in spends 23-26th Mar 17-20th Apr 30 Apr-03th May
Fresh foods Vacation/leisure travel
Staples Business travel
Travel Public transport
Household care products
Daily Spas, theme parks, concerts
essentials Personal care products
Restaurants
OOH
Utilities (electricity, water)
Entertainment Movies at cinema hall
Mobile services Luxury brands/products
Home wifi connection Cosmetics, makeup, perfume
Apparel/fashion
Paid OTT subscription Discretionary
At-home
entertainment spends Tobacco & smoking supplies
DTH services
Alcohol
Toys & games
Food delivery
Savings Sports equipment & clothing
Saving/
Investments Insurance Non-mobile consumer electronics
Electronics
Preventive diagnostics/test Mobile electronics
Home construction/renovations
Vitamins, herbs, supplements
Home Home furnishings and décor
Health Medical procedures
Scooters/bikes
First-aid
Auto Cars
Education Packaged food & beverage
Education
Consumer sentiment Positive Neutral Negative
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Categories with Top 2 Box > (5% more than average) classified as winning categories. Categories with Turn the Tide
Bottom 2 Box > (5% more than average) classified as losing categories. Categories neutral across waves: Baby/children's food, Non prescription medications, Prescription medicines, House rent, Home purchase & Unlock the new normal
home loans.
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 23-26, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,106, N = 2,324, and N=1,327 respectively)Overall older & higher SEC consumers
have relatively positive outlook
Spends
Amidst the Income
growing income % expecting lower % expecting higher % expecting decrease % expecting increase
uncertainty, income in the next
6 months
income in the next
6 months
in total spends in next in total spends in next
6 months 6 months
opportunity to 52 22 SEC A 42 34
identify and 60 14 SEC B 47 24
sharply target 61 14 48 28
least impacted
18-25 yrs.
52 23 41 34
micro-segments 26-35 yrs.
51 21 36-45+ yrs. 41 34
Question text: "How do you expect your overall spends to change in the Next 6 months as compared to
before lockdown?" Note: Self-employed includes professions like doctors, CAs, yoga instructors, etc.
Turn the Tide
Small business includes businesses withThe most
fundamental
change from
this crisis is the
change in
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
consumer
behavior
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normalOur research points to fundamental themes
impacting consumer behavior
SOCIAL DISTANCING: HEALTH AND HYGIENE: INCOME UNCERTAINTY:
The new normal Top of the mind Here and now concern
~85%
Reduction in number
49%
Consumers intend to
54%
Consumers expect
Retail & of visits to public buy more vitamins, overall household
places compared to herbs and income to reduce in
recreation
baseline1 supplements in the the next 6 months3
coming times2
1. . [COVID-19 Community Mobility Report (April 17, 2020) - The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020] 2. Question text: “How do you expect
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal
your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327)] 3. “How do you expect your overall available household income to
change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?"[BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327)]These themes will create different types of changes in
consumer behavior, some more long lasting than others
REVERSAL OF ACCELERATION OF NEW HABITS
PAST TRENDS EXISTING TRENDS
Wild cards; likely to be High potential Stickiness of change is
temporary surges permanent shifts in behavior yet to be determined
These are complete reversal of how Consumer behavior was already Entirely new habits developed during the
consumers were behaving in the past moving towards these trends pandemic and while social distancing
These changes have mostly risen out of a With the pandemic, the trends have Consumers who gain positive
constraint or fear vs convenience or gained momentum and accelerated reinforcement out of the habits may
choice retain them
These trends will likely last in line with Positive reinforcement is essential for Ecosystem facilitating and feeding these
recovery period consumers to adopt them in the long term changes can make it last longer
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal11 trends of consumer behavior emerge
This will deeply impact purchase pathways in the new normal
REVERSAL OF ACCELERATION OF NEW
PAST TRENDS EXISTING TRENDS HABITS
1 5 Embracing digital 9
Bringing the
services & Remote way of living
Outside Inside
experiences
Social 6 Accelerated adoption
10
Distancing of e-commerce and 'D'o 'I't 'Y'ourself
O2O
7 11 Superior hygiene &
Strive for Health &
clean living: a new
Wellness
norm
Health &
Hygiene
2 8
Trust in brand Rise of 'Smart
above all else shopper'
3
Trading down &
bargain hunting
Income
Uncertainty 4
Shopping for Utility
Wild cards: likely to be temporary High potential permanent shifts: Stickiness of change is yet to be
surges in line with recovery period linked to positive reinforcement determined
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal11 trends of consumer behavior emerge
This will deeply impact purchase pathways in the new normal
REVERSAL OF ACCELERATION OF NEW
PAST TRENDS EXISTING TRENDS HABITS 60%
51% consumers
saw an increase increase in
in payment via Instagram
1 5 94
Embracing digital digital wallets Live views
Bringing the
Remote way of living in a week
6
services &
Outside Inside
experiences
Social 79% consumers are not 50% 10 Spike in new
6 Accelerated adoption
of all consumers
Distancing going out of house, hobbies and
except work1 of e-commerce and expect to increase 'D'o 'I't 'Y'ourself habits
O2O e-commerce spend
in next 1 month 5
7 11 Superior hygiene &
63% consumers are Strive for Health & 91% Indian
paying more attention to clean living: a new households
Wellness
origin of product2 norm washing
40+% may increase
Health & spend on Health &
hands more
often7
Hygiene Wellness8
2 8
Trust in brand Rise of 'Smart
above all else shopper'
43% consumers are Informed purchase
3 expecting decrease in decision; High
Trading down & overall spend in next 6 salience of digital
bargain hunting months3 research
Income
Uncertainty 4
Purchase triggers expected
Shopping for Utility to become more "functional"
Wild cards: likely to be temporary High potential permanent shifts: Stickiness of change is yet to be
surges in line with recovery period linked to positive reinforcement determined
1. Question text: “What is your likely behavior for following activities once the Lockdown is lifted?"[BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327)] 2. [KANTAR – COVID-19 Barometer India Research report – Turn the Tide
3rd April 2020] 3. "How do you expect your overall spends to change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?" [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327 respectively)] 4.“How would you Unlock the new normal
describe your usage behavior in past 1 month?" [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 17-20 2020 (N = 2,324)] 5. BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey (India), March 23-26 2020 6. [Facebook India Data - Week ending
March 28 vs Week ending March 17] 7. [KANTAR – COVID-19 Barometer India Research report – 3rd April 2020], 8. [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327)]1
Bringing
the
Outside
With social distancing, indoor is becoming the new
Inside
outdoor with experiences moving inside home
Pre-COVID, consumers showed inclination Outdoor movement will likely continue to be
towards experiences restricted; consumers trying alternatives3
77% consumers indulged in experiences1 Immediately Within a Within a few In 1 year or
Never
after few weeks months more
% respondents who experienced
61 this last year
49 Movies in
12% 31% 38% 14% 5%
theatre
33 29
20
Travel Entertainment Indulgence Adventure Personal Eating out 14% 33% 39% 13% 1%
Development
With lockdown, consumers are being forced to
stay indoors2
RETAIL &
Trying to avoid Keeping a distance Not going out of RECREATION WORK SOCIALIZE
public places in crowds house, except work
'Old hobbies become
Working from home4 'Social Bonding in
survival mantra for
Physical Distancing'
85% 87% 79% many during 79% - Indian Express
lockdown' - TOI
Turn the Tide
1. Question: In last 1 year, did you indulge in the mentioned experiences at least once? [BCG – Emerging consumer trend report, 2019] 2. Question text: “What is your likely behavior for following activities once the
Lockdown is lifted?" [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327)] 3. Question text: “If coronavirus were to be under control, after how long do you think your spending would return to
normal i.e., similar to before the Coronavirus outbreak?" [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 ( N = 1,327)]; 4. % respondents who selected "I'm working from home now instead of going to
office/ work place [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 ( N = 1,327)]; Unlock the new normal
Source: Press Search1
Bringing
the
Outside
Opportunity for brands to customize offerings and
Inside
communication for in-home consumption
In India, the ‘Stay Home’ & times on
‘Ghar Pe Raho’ sticker was used over
6M Instagram1
1 Brands adapting campaign
messaging around 'Stay at home' 2 Brands offering interesting
things to do while ‘Stay at home’ 3 Brands delivering outdoor
services inside your homes
Zee5 Global
Telecom players launched the 'stay SBI launched
used Facebook home, stay #GharSeBanking
to drive entertained' campaign on
awareness for campaign and Facebook to
staying safe at leveraged maximize the
home and Facebook to scale adoption of digital
promoting their subscription banking products in
online program, catering the wake of the
transactions for to entertainment country wide
recharge at home seeking consumers lockdown
in lockdown
Source: Facebook case studies; 1. Facebook Internal Data
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal2
Trust in
brand
above all
Consumers gravitating to Opportunity for all brands
else
brands they can trust to deepen relationships
Consumers focusing on origin of product and Limited co-relation between brand
brand's response to the crisis; loyalty to trusted awareness and trust across categories
brands continue (25-50%)3
Believe that brand's response to crisis would have impact Thus fair game for large / small /
65% on future purchase likelihood1 established / new brands to establish
trust
Paying more attention to origin of
63%
products2 Opportunity to build deeper
customer relationships by
59% Continuing to purchase same brand as always2 responding to the crisis and
being their "lockdown and
Focus on product origin is much more pronounced transition partner"
in India than other countries2
Opportunity for "Made In
USA 35%
India" play in messaging for
India 63%
categories where consumers
UK 25% will care more about local
South Korea 46% sourcing / product origins
Italy 40%
Germany 20% 1. [Edelman trust Barometer,2020 (Global number; report
Turn the Tide
France 34% includes India)] 2. [KANTAR – COVID-19 Barometer India
Research report – 3rd April 2020]; 3. Data of only urban Unlock the new normal
consumers [Source: CCI Survey & BCG analysis]2
Trust in
brand
above all
Both established and niche players are stepping up to
else
deepen consumer relationship by building trust
Responding to crisis and being "lockdown Pivoting on "Made in India"
and transition partner" themes
Facebook’s ‘I For India’ concert to
FB raise funds for GiveIndia COVID-19
Give relief
India Top Indian Raised for
85+ and Global 60+ Cr COVID-19 Launched 'Swadeshi Sankalp', to
stars relief ZOHO
provide online platform for classes
and free classes to govt. schools.
Launched Ola Emergency service Also providing free customer
OLA to help citizens who are in need of support software to govt. &
taking medical trips amidst meeting spaces.
lockdown
Launched #RadissonCares across
J&J
social media platforms to bring J&J & Tulips are going to supply
Radisson Tulips
insights in housekeeping, F&B, "Made in India' nasal and throat
elderly, health & wellness care swabs for testing COVID
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal
Source : Company website; Press/ Social Media search; Facebook Case Studies3
Trading
down &
bargain
Markets may witness trading down in the short term;
hunting
micro-market opportunities will emerge
Income uncertainty creating mixed Expectation of deals/discounts is Majority of those who reduce
sentiment; both planned reductions & one of the key reasons to increase spends will prefer to buy a cheaper
increased spends expected across spends2 brand/variant3
categories1
Overall SEC SEC 18-25 26-35 36-45+
A B yrs. yrs. yrs.
32 34 24 28 34 34
35%+ 70%+
43 42 47 48 41 41
% expt. increase in total spends in the next 6 months Expecting discounts across Planning to buy cheaper brand/
% expt. decrease in total spends in the next 6 months categories variant
Target micro- segments with Explore value for money offers Prop up value for money
more resilience (affluent, (e.g. discounts on volume / variants in portfolio and
older) in targeted campaigns loyalty etc.) to attract this proposition to win this segment
segment
1.Question Text: "How do you expect your overall spends to change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?" 2. Average % of respondents across select categories expecting deals/ promotions/
discounts (as a % of consumers who are planning to increase spends) 3. Min % of respondents planning to buy a cheaper brand/ variant across select categories from consumer sentiment survey (as a % of Turn the Tide
consumers who are planning to reduce spends) Unlock the new normal
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 1,327 )4
Shopping
for utility Value consciousness will lead to more utility led
shopping; right triggers can induce purchase
Purchases across many categories have been driven Marketers are designing their brand
by more celebratory/experimental needs1 messaging around in-demand use cases3
Pre-Covid
Eat-out 15 20 22 30 12
Eat out restaurants like
Dominos are highlighting
additional utility around
15 42 12 12 20
Apparel ordering home delivery like
reduced work around
Functional Celebratory Spontaneous Experimental Ritualistic Upgradation cleaning dishes etc.
With growing income uncertainty purchase triggers
expected to become more 'functional'
Post-Covid Japanese creative
54% Consumers are expecting lower income in
the next 6 months2 agency Whatever collaborat
ed with Japanese fashion
Transition in purchase triggers designer Akihiko Kimura to
create WFH Jammies, an
"I must plan a party for "I am too tired working the whole week, outfit that looks formal on
Friday evening should probably order home delivery
video, but is loose & comfy
"Let me experiment with "I need to replace my jeans outside the frame
this new style of jeans because these don't fit me
1. Question Text: Now I want you to think about the last time you purchased XYZ, what was the occasion/reason for your purchase? Data of only urban consumers [BCG Analysis, Source: CCI Survey]; 2. Turn the Tide
Question text: “How do you expect your overall available household income to change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?" [Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April Unlock the new normal
30-May 03 2020 (N = 1,327 respectively) 3. Press/ Social Media search5
Acceleration in digital led by social media; more
Embracing
digital
services &
consumption across news, games & entertainment
experiences
Social media growing in importance as one stop for staying connected, entertained and well-informed
Increasingly wide reach – 3 Bn Increased preference for virtual connects -
consumers actively using Facebook, Voice and video calling more than doubled
Instagram, WhatsApp or across Messenger and WhatsApp in
Messenger each month1 hardest hit places by COVID1
INCREASED DEMAND FOR MORE TIME SPENT PLAYING INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION
DIGITAL CONTENT ONLINE GAMES OF ONLINE NEWS
Content producers New Players are Engagement Social gaming apps COVID-19 serves a Consumers are
are turning towards entering the OTT observed across the are gaining popularity3 blow to print media planning to
OTT segment day2 "Activity on social features COVID-19 hits print media continue behavior
Producers court OTT Snapdeal enters the OTT “The most interesting of WinZo Games such as hard-ads as circulation dip,
platforms to cash in on race, partners with thing is that while our usage of video and audio editions see major digital
summer movie season Hungama play to offer user peak was while playing the game push 63%
- The HINDU video streaming content between 8 pm and have also doubled" - The Print
- Business Insider midnight, we now see a – Co-Founder WINZO
relatively flatter (and games % new users likely
higher) engagement to continue in
throughout the day – future4
Founder, Rein Games
1. Facebook Q1 2020 Earnings Release/ Call Transcript 2. Press Search [YourStory] [Online gaming startups see a surge as India locks down to fight coronavirus]; 3. Press Search [Economic Times] [For Indian Turn the Tide
gaming startups, Covid-19 lockdown is a boon for business]; 4. Question Text: "Willingness to continue in next 6 months" [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 17-20 2020 (N = 2,324)] Unlock the new normal
Source: Press/ Social Media searchEmbracing
5
digital
services &
experiences
Consumers embracing digital in historically offline
categories like Education & Health and Fitness
Traditional learning models faced an unprecedented Social distancing and increasing health awareness led
setback and digital emerged to interest in digital health services
32 Cr. 90 Mn 24 K
Students hit by COVID-19 as schools and colleges are shut1 Health conscious individuals3 Gyms and Studios across India impacted3
Kendriya Vidyalayas go COVID-19 : COVID-19 lockdowns: Theaters, gyms to be Locked gyms due to
Coronavirus is making
digital to impart IIT Roorkee resumes AICTE releases list of 41 shut in Mumbai, 5 other Coronavirus outbreak!
India's gyms and dance
education during teaching through digital free digital resources for cities in Maharashtra How fitness industry sees
studios sweat
lockdown mode students over coronavirus innovation and growth
- Yahoo Finance
- NDTV - HT Media - HT Media - HT Media - Financial Express
Unacademy Sadhguru Yoga Cure Fit
Increase in time spent2 Increase in time spent2 Increase in time spent2
101% 202% 120%
Unacademy launched 20,000 free live classes4 Online Yoga Practice sessions to Cult fit started online classes to support
help immunity consumers to workout from home5
1. Press Search: [ThePrint] [In India, over 32 crore students hit by Covid-19 as schools and colleges are shut: UNESCO]; 2. [BCG Analysis, Source: App annie data (Time spent data) – Change comparison Turn the Tide
March 4th Week vs March 1st Week] 3. Press Search: [LiveMint] [How India pays for fitness]; 4. [Unacademy Blog – 12th March 2020]; 5. Press Search [Business Insider] [Cult.fit goes online to support Unlock the new normal
people to workout from home amidst Corona shutdown]Embracing
5
digital
services & Digital payment platforms
experiences
become more important in
Sharp rise across digital With strong likelihood to
the customer purchase payments in the last 1 month… continue in the next 6 months
journey Digital wallets
% consumers1 % consumers2
RBI pushes digital payments in the
time of COVID-19 51% 25% 25% 60% 22% 18%
- Economic Times
Net banking/online banking
NPCI urges India to use digital
payments to reduce social contact
and contain Covid-19 outbreak
- NPCI Press release 46% 30% 25% 50% 30% 20%
Increased Same Decreased More than usual Same Less than usual
FinTech to the rescue: Rural India There is a 15% increase in incoming We are seeing an uptick in our switch partners
requests from offline merchants to from whom our users can buy essentials/staples
turns to digital modes of payment partner with Paytm3 such as groceries, medicine and food3
- The Banking & Finance Post – PAYTM spokesperson – PhonePe Spokesperson
1. Question text: "How would you describe your usage behavior in past 1 month" [BCG COVID-19 Consumer
Sentiment Survey, April 17-20 2020 (N = 2,324)] 2."How do you expect your usage behavior to change in the
Turn the Tide
next 6 months" [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 17-20 2020 (N = 2,324)]; 3. Press Search Unlock the new normal
[LiveMint] [COVID-19: Digital payments see uptick in user base]5
Brands have started using digital extensively to
Embracing
digital
services &
attract and engage consumers
experiences
Exploring new digital models and service innovations
Cult.fit BMW Penguin eat shabu
Launched telemedicine services & is Launched an immersive shopping Promoted to-go boxes with Facebook
offering 80+ online sessions daily, experience online with a touch of posts & customers could order through
with over 25k+ members personalization Messenger – achieved 350 sales in one
min
Use of digital marketing to deliver broader brand communication goals
Swiggy MAX Health Insurance Nykaa
Using app, Social media & blog for Vernacular video led campaign on Launched Nykaa Network, an online-
Digital PR, safety standards and OTT for #IgnoreNahiInsureKaro only beauty forum to share beauty
thought leadership tips and strengthen brand persona
Leveraging digital to engage with consumers
WHO Asian Paints UpGrad
Launched the #SafeHands Initiated the Collaborated with influencers on
challenge on social media platforms #HarGharKuchKehtaHai Instagram to promote upskilling
like Instagram, partnering with campaign on Instagram to interact campaign #rahoambitious
celebrities with the consumers in lockdown
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Unlock the new normal
Source: Press/ Social media search, Company website, Facebook case study6
Surge in preference for online channel sharper in
Accelerated
adoption of
E-commerce
India
and O2O
Household Personal Fresh Packaged Health
care (%) care (%) food (%) food (%) supplements (%)
China 19 22 7 9 7
India 33 44 31 34 43
Brazil 4 5 0 2 3
Indonesia 18 33 12 13 47
Thailand 9 11 -16 3 26
Philippines* -6 -7 -12 -17 14
*The reduction in e-commerce was caused by a shortage of delivery staff due to a strict lockdown
Turn the Tide
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, 2020 (N = 1,255 Brazil; 2,532 China; 2,106 India; 1,528 Indonesia; 1,017 Thailand; 1,015 Philippines). Unlock the new normal
Note: Question was “In the next one month, how do you expect your online spend for the following types of products to change?” (Focus on income segments middle class and higher.)6
Indian consumers may spend higher on E-com, even
Accelerated
adoption of
E-commerce
for traditionally offline categories
and O2O
~50% of all consumers expect to increase E-com spend in next one month
38% 37% 34% 35%
45% 42% 38% 39% 39% 45%
64% 64%
53% 55% 55% 54%
44% 44% 48% 47% 46% 43%
30% 31%
Apparel/ fashion Mobile phones Household Personal Cosmetics, Packaged Non- Fresh foods Consumer durables Home appliances First aid Vitamins,
care care makeup, food & prescription supplements
products products perfume beverages medications
High online Historically Low online
propensity moderately online propensity
Same More than usual
Note: Question text: “In the next one month, how do you expect your online spend for the following types of products to change?”
Source: BCG Analysis - BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey (India), March 23-26 2020
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal7
Strive for
health and
wellness
Consumers increasingly becoming This presents an
more health conscious interesting opportunity for
brands across categories
Spike in online searches on
120%
health & immunity1 Opportunity for H&W players
to emerge as category
44-52% respondents may increase spends across leaders and demonstrate
sub- categories2
thought advocacy
23
25 23 17
Opportunity for brands from
26 29 27
other categories to enter
25
lucrative adjacencies in
H&W
Opportunity to engage and
Preventive Vitamis, Medical First-aid attract consumers with
diagnostics/test herbs, procedures
supplements tailored messaging around
A lot more Somewhat more health and wellness
1. [BCG Analysis: Online trend data (India) – April 1st week vs Jan last week]; 2. Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in Turn the Tide
the next 6 months across the following areas?” [BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327)]; Press search, Unlock the new normal
trends analysis, BCG Analysis7
Brands are demonstrating leadership, entering lucrative
Strive for
health and
wellness
adjacencies & highlighting benefits around Health & Wellness
Demonstrate category Expand Engage and Attract with
leadership into adjacencies messaging around H&W
Launched Tulsi Drops
Turned their Instagram page
immunity booster packs to
FirstCry launched a Dabur capitalize on the preventive
Kiehl's into a virtual mental health and
Thought Leadership wellness centre
healthcare trend
campaign using FB Live to
engage and help new
parents through Live
Online sessions during GCPL expects shift in consumer
Partnered the initiative
COVID-19 habits with a greater focus on
'Muskurayega India' to help
Godrej health, hygiene - evaluating Star build hope & mental wellness in
launch of new products in the
these times
category
Practo partnered
with Thyrocare to
Launched ‘Haldi doodh’ Launched a digital film on
conduct Covid-19
Practo detection tests to cater
Amul (turmeric latte) known for Fastrack Athletics day & fitness
immunity boosting properties challenges in collaboration with
to surging demand in
HealthifyMe
test
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal
Source: Press/ Social media search; Company website; Facebook case study8
Rise of
'Smart
shopper'
We expect salience of research and 'smart shopping'
to become even more important post the pandemic
Pre-COVID, Indian urban consumers
With more health awareness and more caution around spending,
were trending towards 'smart'
shopping research before shopping will become more critical
Consumers check 2+
85% data points during Coronavirus has made people more Locally produced products may fast become a necessity for
retailers and consumers concerned about products originating
purchase1 conscious of the journey
from countries where novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
-Inc42 has spread
-Nielsen
Top info checked across categories2
Manuf/Exp Features
Manuf.
Reviews Importance of certain decision criteria will increase
Place
Vehicles 48% 30%
Gadgets 32% 30% 31% 30%
Apparel 31% 37%
63%
Features Manufacturing place Reviews
Food
Most checked Frequently checked
Critical for brands to create a consumer pathway conducive for this 'smart shopper'
Consumers conduct online
40% research before /during a
Enable frictionless digital
discovery; transparent and
Seamless mixed
pathways to allow an
purchase3 clear info around decision involved buying
making criteria experience
Turn the Tide
1. [Source: BCG - Emerging consumer trends report] 2. [BCG Analysis - % respondents who checked info during purchases last year for select categories, Source: BCG Unlock the new normal
Emerging consumer trends report] 3. Urban consumers – [Source: BCG CCI Digital influence study] Source: Press Search; BCG Analysis9
Remote
way of
living
Social media 700M daily actives
use WhatsApp and
Globally, ~3Bn
average monthly
active users
ever so
WHO Health Alert
Messenger globally (MAUs) across Instagram Live
service has
for calling, Facebook, views increased
reached 12M+
doubled since WhatsApp, more than 60% in a
important in
people via
COVID-19 Instagram & week3
WhatsApp1
outbreak in many Messenger, with
countries2 2.6Bn MAUs just on
Social Facebook 2
distancing
Snapchat
launched a
Dedicated Twitter
new AR lens to connect
Twitter handle for COVID-19 Snapchat with WHO's 'Covid-19
updates4
Solidarity Response
Fund'5
1. Press Search [LiveMint] [Report as on 15 Apr 2020] 2. [Facebook Q1 2020 Earnings Release/ Call Transcript] 3.
[Facebook Data - Week ending March 28 vs Week ending March 17]; 4. Press Search [Economic Times] [Government
launches dedicated Twitter handle for COVID-19 updates]; 5. Press Search [HT Media] [Snapchat rolls out AR lens for Turn the Tide
WHO’s Covid-19 response fund] Unlock the new normal9
Remote
way of
living
Brands have started leveraging the need for virtual
connect in their brand messaging
Brands are centering product Brands are leveraging consumer's
messaging around WFH need to socialize virtually
Peter England Budweiser
pushing their summer spring
organized a 3-day virtual party to
collection as 'WFH clothing' through
engage with consumers
brand sites
Airtel Xstream Shein
fiber highlighted consumers can enjoy organized a global streaming event
office-like internet at home in their with celebrities and influencers to
product messaging support COVID relief
Spotify
has centered its communication on Globally, every day 800 Mn+ daily
Instagram around ''WFH' – asking actives are engaging with
consumers how their work desks are livestreams across workout classes,
looking like concerts etc. on Facebook platforms1
1. [Facebook Q1 2020 Earnings Release/ Call Transcript]
Source: Press/ Social media search
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal10
'D'o 'I't
'Y'ourself From Do It For Me to Do It Yourself: Social distancing
has triggered a new habit
Consumers have picked up new Leading to increasing traction Opportunity for brands to innovate
chores / hobbies during lockdown on social media platforms & engage via moment marketing
Interest in India (Dec '19-Apr '20)1
100 Allen Solly
Mar 19: Janata Launched a campaign for
Curfew first the kids line, asking
announced consumers to create
something with their kids
50 and tag them
Borosil
Initiated a contest for the
Dec 2019 Mar 2020 consumers to cook their
favorite recipe and tag them
How to make How to cook to win
Increasing media coverage on DIY
topics
Apple
Started
#TheAtHomeSeries on
Instagram promoting
consumers to share
pictures clicked on IPhone
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal
1. Online Trends Data (India)
Source: Press/ social media search; Company websiteSuperior 11
Hygiene is here to stay: Superior practices
hygiene &
clean living
a new
norm
getting embedded in consumer DNA Stickiness observed in
China in the aftermath of
the pandemic5
Increased focus Penetration
on hygiene increasing every week
Still buy masks and
83% disinfect for storage at
Interest over time in India1 > 2 lakh users added every week home
+525% Janata
100 Hand Sanitizers4
Curfew first 16.3
(New triers %
announced Penetration build 13.3
up)
9.5
50 Disinfectant 6.3 Turn wearing
Hand wash 4.4 65% masks into a daily
Sanitizer habit
Mar Wk1 Mar Wk2 Mar Wk3 Mar Wk4 Apr Wk1
Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
Indian Households washing hands > 1.5 lakh users added every week
91% more often now2
Hand Wash4 16.4
(New triers %
Couldn't purchase a hygiene 14.2
Pay more attention to
17% category that they were looking for
Penetration build
up) 9.5 76% the sterilization and
because of emptying shelves3 8.0
disinfection
5.1
41% Bought a new hygiene category3
Mar Wk1 Mar Wk2 Mar Wk3 Mar Wk4 Apr Wk1
1. [BCG Analysis, Source:Online trends data], 2. KANTAR: COVID-19 Barometer India Research Webinar (3rd April); 3. [KANTAR: COVID-19 Barometer India Research Turn the Tide
Webinar (3rd April) – World Panel Division]; 4. [KANTAR Report - 10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 23rd April 2020 - Urban India Data (March: Week 1, 1st to 7th; Unlock the new normal
Week 2 8th to 14th; Week 3, 15th to 21st; Week 4, 22nd to 28th; April: Week 1, 29th to 4th; Week 2, 5th to 11th)] 5. [KANTAR: COVID-19 Impact on Indonesian Attitudes and
Behaviours report (14th April)]Superior 11
hygiene &
clean living
a new
Brand are responding with category extensions or
norm
benefit articulation around hygiene themes
Established brands While service sector is Innovations in hygiene &
are entering into the inculcating hygienic sanitization space to
hygiene category practices as key cater to evolving demand
differentiator
Marico is foraying into the
hand sanitizer category with Swiggy introduced 'safety Nippon Paint (Japan) developed
the launch of sanitizer, as part badges' for restaurants Antivirus Surface Coating to
of it's Mediker brand best complying with highest safeguard against viruses from
known for anti lice shampoos standards of hygiene (e.g. adhering to surfaces
temp. checks, masks, 4 hr
sanitation, safe packaging) Baidu developed an open source
ITC has launched 2 products AI model to detect whether
in hygiene space – 'Savlon individuals in a crowd are
Surface Disinfectant Spray' wearing masks (97.3% accuracy)
and a new hand sanitizer & a non contact infrared
'Savlon Hexa' PVR is planning alternate temperature monitoring system
seating in movie theaters &
HUL recently acquired hygienic practices in F&B AEON Big, a Malaysian
feminine hygiene brand serving supermarket retail chain
Vwash from Glenmark to undertook major sanitization &
expand its portfolio in the cleaning initiatives to continue
hygiene segment operations during the COVID crisis
Indian Railways will likely
reintroduce the 5x hike in Starbucks China set up safety
Cavin Kare is launching hand
platform ticket prices from pre stations at entrances to do
sanitizers under Chic and
lockdown in Mar to deter temperature checks &
Nyle brands including
overcrowding sanitization – 95% of its stores
sachets and bulk packs
have reopened by March
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normal
Source: Press/ social media search; Company websiteThe purchase
pathway is
undergoing a
fundamental
change
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
What will it
take for you to
win?
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normalThe new pathway is changing and filled with opportunities: fast movers will win
Portfolio & Messaging Value Focus Presence & Influence
Strengthen Brand
PURCHASE
Positioning
Tweak messaging
PRE
Digital proliferation and changing and portfolio focus
choice drivers present opportunities to play in targeted, Tap Here
emerging and Now
adjacencies opportunity:
Induce and Adjust to the
Incentivize new normal of
Channel & purchase to engagement:
Engagement
deliver value
PURCHASE
Significantly
Delivering targeted, seamless redesign your
shopping experience will be key to Capture the digital
expanding online engagement
win
wallet with customers
Win
disproportionate
share of new online
adopters and
PURCHASE
aggressively retain
POST
customers
Opportunity to retain and develop
brand advocates in the new normal
Turn the Tide
Unlock the new normalDigital proliferation and changing choice drivers present opportunities
Bringing the Embracing Remote way Rise of Trading Shopping for Strive for Trust in Superior DIY
Outside digital of living “Smart down and Utility Health & brand above hygiene & Do It
Inside services and shopper” bargain Wellness else clean living: Yourself
experiences hunting a new norm
Relook Media Mix
Build Social Connect in Optimize Create
Model
Social Distancing Portfolio personalized
to build
1 for Value efficiency in engagement @
Engage with consumers in their creation
context acquisition scale
PRE-PURCHASE FUNNEL
• Build surround with branded 4 5
content from creators & • Segmenting
• Align to new 6 Moment
media
publishers consumers marketing
landscape
• Use in-home creative solutions to drive • Use social
• Accelerate
differential d role of media for
value regional campaigns
Focus on Hyper-Localisation • Showcase • Catalogues on trending
value for for themes and
2 Connect with consumers where money: prospecting build
they are discounts, saliency
customers
• Hyperlocal solutions for bundles in adjacent
targeting, optimization, lead
categories
management & communication
Win consumer trust
Bring alive Experiences with digital access 7
3 Sequential messaging by cohort
New product launches, in-person demos
• Interactive & engaging story-telling on
• Virtual launches and product demos
• Conversational solutions with chat bots for safety and wellbeing
personalized recommendations
Turn the Tide
Medium Term Short Term Unlock the new normalDelivering targeted, seamless shopping experience will be key to win
Accelerated adoption Bringing the Embracing digital Trading down &
of e-com and O2O Outside Inside services & experiences bargain hunting
8 Replicate In-Person experiences, from trials to conversion
Create Financial
Convert trials to sales Access
• Digital innovations like AR/VR/Filters to solve "touch-and-feel” barrier 11
• Payment / financing
options e.g. EMI,
PURCHASE FUNNEL
Build Online presence spot loans
9 • Segmented
communication
Own Platforms and Influencing
Marketplaces
• Direct to Consumer models
• Collaborative Performance Ads
Partner with online retail partners
• Conversational Commerce with
Messaging tools
Create cohorts for deep customer connect
10
• Micro targeting
• Custom audiences to gain scale
Turn the Tide
Medium Term Short Term Unlock the new normalOpportunity to retain and develop brand advocates in the new normal
Remote Rise of Trading down &
way of living “Smart shopper” bargain hunting
Strengthen CRM solutions
12
• Messaging for post sales communication and other digital CRM tools
POST PURCHASE FUNNEL
Drive Value by repeat purchase and consumer up-trade
13
• Remarket with customized offers for
up-trade or repeat purchase
• Incentivize social peer
recommendation
to create post purchase advocacy
Turn the Tide
Medium Term Short Term Unlock the new normalAccelerated Bringing the Embracing Remote Rise of Trading Shopping Strive for Trust in Superior DIY
adoption Outside digital way of “Smart down and for Utility Health & brand hygiene & Do It
of e-com Inside services living shopper” bargain Wellness above else clean living: Yourself
and O2O and hunting a new norm
experiences
1 4 6
5
Build social connect in social distancing Relook Media
• Build surround with branded content Optimize Create
Portfolio for Mix Model
Personalized
PURCHASE
• Use in-home creative solutions
Value creation • Align to new engagement at
2 • Segmenting media scale
PRE
Focus on hyper localization landscape • Moment
consumers
• Hyperlocal solutions for targeting, • Accelerated marketing -
to drive
optimization, lead management & role of regional Use social
communication differential 7
• Catalogues for media for
value
3 • Showcase prospecting Win Consumer Trust campaigns on
Bring alive experiences with digital access trending
value for customers in Sequential messaging by cohort
• Virtual launches and product demos • Interactive & engaging story- themes and
money adjacent build saliency
• Conversational solutions with chat bots for personalized telling on safety and wellbeing
categories
recommendation
8
Replicate In-Person experiences, from trials to 11
conversion
PURCHASE
Create
• Digital innovations like AR/VR/Filters to solve Financial
"touch-and-feel” barrier Access
9 • Payment /
Build Online presence financing
• Own Platforms & Influencing options e.g.
Marketplaces via D2C models, EMI, spot
collaborative performance ads loans
• Segmented
& Conversational Commerce
communicat-
10 ion
Create Cohorts for deep
Customer Connect
• Micro targeting
• Custom audiences to gain 12
PURCHASE
scale Strengthen CRM solutions
• Messaging for post sales communication and other
POST
digital CRM tools
13
Drive Value by repeat purchase
and consumer up-trade Turn the Tide
• Remarket with customized offers
Medium Term Short Term • Incentivize peer recommendation
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