TOURISM ITALIA 2020 LEADERSHIP, WORK, SOUTH - STRATEGIC PLAN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM IN ITALY - Tourism Generis
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TOURISM ITALIA 2020 LEADERSHIP, WORK, SOUTH STRATEGIC PLAN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM IN ITALY ROME – 18 January 2013
Prepared by the Working Group of the Ministry for Regional Affairs, Tourism and Sport chaired by Piero Gnudi comprising of: Massimo Bergami (coordinator), Andrea Babbi, Pier Luigi Celli, Marco Di Luca, Mauro Di Dalmazio, Calogero Mauceri, Gabriele Morandin, Nicola Pianon, Roberto Rocca, Ignazio Rocco di Torrepadula. Contributors: Antonio Achille, Alessandro Costamagna, Andrea Falessi, Marco Fanfani, Piero Gallo, Giulio Leporatti, Marcello Maria Mariani, Gian Luca Marzocchi, Francesco Millo, Francesco Nicotri, Chiara Orsingher, Antonia Postorivo, Enrica Sighinolfi, Vincenzo Nunziata, Marco Visentin. This document is based on an elaborate project from The Boston Consulting Group, the contents of which will be made available on the Goverment website (www.governo.it) and on the institutional websites of the Department for Regional Affairs, Tourism and Sport. © 2013 – Presidency of the Council of Ministers, Department for Regional Affairs Tourism and Sport. 2
1. INDEX 1. Index 3 2. Foreword 5 PART ONE: ANALYSIS OF THE TOURISM SECTOR IN ITALY 3. The role and placement of Italy in Tourism 7 3.1 The growth of international tourism 3.2 Tourism: an opportunity that cannot be missed 3.3 The competitive position of Italy within international tourism 3.4 The structure and placement of the Italian offer 4. The fundamental elements of a tourism industry policy in Italy 29 PART TWO: ACTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM 5. Collective vision of strategic actions 35 5.1 Holistic approach to action definition 5.2 Guidelines and potential impact of the Strategic Plan 5.3 Priorities definition 6. Rethinking the Governance of the sector 38 7. A new role for the Italian State Tourist Board 45 8. Organising a modern offer 53 9. Bringing the accommodation facilities up to the standard of 59 international competitors 10. Transport and infrastructures 63 11. Developing skills at every level of the sector 67 12. Attracting international investments 71 13. Summary of the actions timing 77 PART THREE: THE BEGINNING OF A JOURNEY 14. Government’s priorities and short-term actions 83 15. Conclusions 85 16. Sources 17. Methodotological appendix 89 3
2. PROLOGUE Tourism is one of the economic sectors that have registered a considerable increase globally in the last ten years. In fact, tourists’ expenditure for travel abroad has doubled and it is forecast that it will increase by 50% in the next ten years. In 2011, more than a billion people have travelled abroad on holiday. Italy still retains a prominent role in international tourism, but finds it increasingly difficult to keep pace with the speed of growth in the sector and tends to lose its market share to its traditional European competitors, showing an evident loss of competitiveness. However, tourism represents for our country a significant sector, with an important role in the national economy and it generates more employment opportunities in comparison to industrial sectors that are considered as priority. The contribution of tourism to Italy’s gross national product amounts to over 130 billions of euros (about 9% of the national production) and the number of people employed in this sector are about 2,2 millions (one in 10 workers). Tourism is also an expression of a relevant potential in terms of communication and cultural integration, two important elements in a world that is ever more global. Furthermore, tourism offers great opportunities to enhance our extraordinary historic and artistic heritage, both in terms of the communication of territorial identities and also in terms of attracting new investments for its conservation and revaluation. The studies clearly show the critical points of the Italian tourism industry, just to cite some: governance problems of the sector, extremely fragmented promotional activity abroad and gradual marginalizing of Enit, small operating companies, limits in being able to offer competitive tourism products, insufficient infrastructures, inadequate personnel training for the global market, difficulty in attracting international investments. In the face of these critical points, the strategic plan proposes some guidelines and pinpoints a relevant number of actions to take that could rapidly improve the competitiveness of our national tourism sector. Necessary prerequisite of the re-launch of this sector is a radical change in the approach to the problems of tourism that no Government has ever put at the centre of its agenda. Tourism has never been considered as an investment for the development of the Country. A glaring example: tourism never had a relevant role in the various plans for the development of Southern Italy presented by various governments. It is necessary, therefore, to initiate a cultural shift, starting by considering tourism a great opportunity for the Country and coordinating the necessary efforts to bring to the surface this hidden potential. The unrivalled wealth of “tourist resources” of the Country should not induce a naïve conviction that international tourists will continue to arrive spontaneously; in fact, as demonstrated by numerous researches, international travelers look for an organized offer and, even if Italy represents for many reasons the most desired destination, often the final choice rewards other destinations seen overall as more affordable or more “easy”. To compete in the international tourism market, it is necessary then to comprehend what tourists really want and be able to offer modern products, taking into account that the tourist experience starts well before the booking and terminates well after returning home. 4
This strategic plan constitutes the first step to address this evolution with the aim to consolidate the competitive advantage of Italy and to contribute to the economic development and the creation of new jobs. According to some conservative forecasts, the actions to be taken outlined in this plan can result in an increment of approx.30 billions of euros of GDP in 500.000 new jobs within 2020. It is an opportunity that the Country cannot afford to miss and an imperative responsibility for the future generations. In addition to the proposed activities, the plan also proposes a new methodology through identifying a clear direction in which to go using a coordinated approach by all parties, unavoidable pre-condition to operate efficiently in a global market. Tourism cannot be viewed anymore as a matter of exclusive interest of merely the sectors directly involved in it. This plan will be adjourned every two years, its scope encompassing five years, the aim is for it to become an essential tool for both government institutions and individual operators. Tourism can give a concrete contribution to our Country to return on the road of profitability and growth, on condition that the necessary resources will be assigned to this sector and both public and private operators show a firm involvement in it. PIERO GNUDI 5
PART ONE ANALYSIS OF THE TOURISM SECTOR IN ITALY 6
3. THE ROLE AND POSITIONING OF ITALY IN TOURISM 3.1 Growth of international tourism International tourism is experiencing an assertive, constant and over a long period trend of growth. This trend was already evident since the 1980s and growth is expected to be sustained also for the next twenty years to come. In 2011 World Tourism Organization estimated that in 2030 passengers flows will double the amount of tourists so far achieved – from 280 millions passengers in 1980 they raised to 900 millions in 2010 – to reach 1.8 billions per year. This implies an expected average growth rate of 4% in the 50 year period (1980-2030). (Figure 1). Figure 1 – International tourism, world International tourists (Mln) 2,000 1,500 +4% 1,000 500 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020F 2030F Source: WTO Furthermore, it is necessary to observe that the described growth was spread out all over the globe, both in terms of inbound and outbound tourism (Figure 2). By focusing the attention on outbound tourism, it is however possible to see different growth rates among areas. In particular, with reference to the most relevant areas by dimensions such as Europe and Asia-Pacific, it is notable that the average growth rate of outbound travelers of the Asian region for the period 1980-2030 is approximately two times the European one (6% yearly vs. 3%), hence representing a population of assured interest for the strategies of our country. 7
Figure 2 – International outbound tourism by region of origin Outbound tourists(Mln) 1,000 800 600 400 1980 200 1995 2010 2030F 0 Africa America Asia & Pacific Europe Middle East CAGR 6% 3% 6% 3% 5% '80 – '30 Source: WTO, The Boston Consulting Group analysis 3.2 Tourism: an essential opportunity for Italy Tourism constitutes a fundamental sector for the economy of the Country for two main reasons: primarily has a strong incidence both in terms of GDP (about 9%) and employment (about 10%); it is also a sector, perhaps the only one, where Italy has a strong and durable competitive advantage in the years to come. However, in other Countries (such as France and Spain for instance) the contribution of tourism to the economy is larger both in relative and absolute terms. (Figure 3). 8
Figure 3 – Tourism impact on GDP and employment Tourism impact on GDP, 2011 Tourism contribution to employment Tourism GDP / GDP (%) Jobs in Tourism / Overall jobs (%) 20 20 14.9% 15 15 12.7% 10.4% 9.7% 10 9.3% 8.6% 10 5 5 0 0 Sp Fr It Sp Fr It Tourism total Tourism impact1 del 160 185 136 2.3 2.8 2.2 contribution Tourism (Milions of jobs) (€ Billion) 1. Total impact of Travel & Tourism (includes direct, indirect and induced impact) Source: World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) –Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2012 In addition, in the past years the Italian tourism sector has lost its market share in the global scenery: from prime position within the European countries at the beginning of the 1980’ and carried up to the half decades of the 1990’, today holds only the third position (behind Spain and France). A certain decrease of the market share can be considered acceptable, especially in relation to the growth of the extra European markets, but for Italy the decrease has been higher if compared to its direct competitors. (Figure 4). 9
Figure 4 – Inbound tourism market share evolution Inbound tourism market share (Tourism expenditure) for major European countries, %, 1982 - 2010 10 ∆ market share 2010 vs. 1982 8 % Spain (1.3) 6 France (1.9) Italy (3.7) 4 Germany (1.1) UK (2.3) 2 0 1982 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: "Quindici anni di turismo internazionale dell'Italia" – Bank of Italy When talking about this sector it is important to remember that the trend of International tourism will continue to be positive because it is dragged by demand of those economies with a high growth rate, whose role will be even more significant for both outbound and inbound. The role of Europe in the sector is therefore destined to reshape and it is today very important for Italy to defend its own market share and win over shares of international travellers coming from Countries in rapid expansions. and, even though at present their figures are not yet significant, they are destined to be within a short period of time, growing together with the economies of their Countries. With this foreword, it is important that the Government decides to put at the centre of its agenda a series of selected strategies for the development of tourism, by recognising its top role for the growth of the Country. The realization of this Strategic Plan represents, as a consequence, a unique occasion for the entire sector and in particular for the South of Italy. Italy has in fact an enormous unexpressed potential, mainly in the South. For instance, by comparing the tourism development of the Balearics with Sicily, some concerning evidences emerge. The two territorial realities have a coast extension in Km very similar but the Balearics generate a number of European night stays eleven times higher than Sicily. The data is even more disconcerting if we consider the historic, artistic, cultural and gastronomic heritage of Sicily compared with the Spanish Islands (Figure 5). With this data, given as an example, it is possible to realize the number of occasions lost by Italy and so the necessity to recover the competitiveness, without further time to be wasted. 10
Figure 5 - European international tourists in Baleari Islands and Sicily Baleari Island Sicily Millions of nights Millions of nights 50 50 41.2 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 3.7 0 0 2010 2010 Shoreline km ~1.430 Shoreline km ~1.500 Source: INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica) Encuesta de ocupaciòn hotelera 2000 e 2010; ISTAT; The Boston Consulting Group analysis Figure 6 - Low cost flights from Germany to Spain or Italy during an average summer week (July 2012) Low cost flights from Germany to Spain Low cost flights from Germany to Italy Week:16th-22nd July 2012 Week:16th-22nd July 2012 Overall low cost flights: 522 Overall low cost flights: 260 3 4 40 3 3 30 3 36 86 13 12 4 6 3 12 19 10 4 191 3 2 20 Baleari 15 51 14 16 6 11 12 21 28 2 Overall flights to 10 Baleari: 6 25 223 13 3 Canarie 28 Overall flights to 6 8 Sicily: 17 Note: included carriers are: RyanAir, easyJet, AirBaltic, Belle Air, Flybe, Germanwings, IcelandAir, Intersky, Jet2, JetAirfly, NIKI, Norwegian Air Shuttle, OnurAir, PegasusAirlines, SmartWings, SunExpress, Transavia, TUIfly, Vueling, Wizzair, XLairways, Air Arabia Egypt, WindJet. Source: OAG database, The Boston Consulting Group analysis Continuing with the example, in order to evaluate the structural weakness factors of the Italian tourism industry, it is interesting to further analyze the differences between Sicily and the Balearics, considering the flights connections (Figure 6); well, by considering a “typical week” in the summer season, low cost flights from Germany (the most relevant European nation for outbound tourism) directed to the Balearics are about 13 times higher that those directed to Sicily. 11
International travellers are extremely important for the Italian tourism sector because represent the engine for growth as internal demand is destined, in the best case scenario, to remain stable or to grow at very contained rates. It is a trend that has already happened in the past: if considering the number of nights bought in hotel as an indicator for tourist demand, in the period 2005-2010 the number of nights bought in Italy by Italian travellers have grown by 0,3% year on year, whilst those bought by international travellers have grown by an annual rate of 2,2% (Istat, 2012). This potential growth rate is very high when considering the intentions of purchasing tourism in Italy; a recent study shows how a large sample of international buyers has on average expressed a high intention to increase the business volume in Italy and to intensify the efforts for developing business relations with Italy. At the same time the same sample of buyers has highlighted a series of difficulties in the purchasing process of the Italian tourist product, due primarily to an insufficient organization of the offer. 3.3 The competitive position of Italy in the international tourism scenario 3.3.1. The market context In order to evaluate the competitive position of Italy it is first of all necessary to define the boundary of the tourist market in which the Country operates; in this context a competitive arena has been identified and includes the western European and Mediterranean Countries (Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Croazia, Cyprus). Having considered that in 2010 about 900 millions of international travellers have been recorded on a global scale, of those about 400 millions have stayed in the competitive arena of Italy, generating a total expenditure equal to €286 billions (if we remove the expenditure of Italians abroad the total equals to €270 billions). For the period 2010-2020 the expected growth of international tourism in Italy’s context market is 2,9% yearly in terms of number of travellers and 4,8% yearly on expenditure. (table 7). It is relevant to observe how about half of this growth in terms of expenditure should relate to medium to long haul travellers named geographically speaking, emerging Countries (in particular the BRIC Countries and from the Gulf) that in the last decade have expressed only 30% of growth. 12
Figure 7 – International tourism expenditure towards competitive arena 2000 – 2010 2010 – 2020F Region of origin 2000 2010 2020F ∆ CAGR ∆ CAGR (M) (M) (M) (M) (% tot) (%) (M) (% tot) (%) Western Europe & Med.1 265 305 365 40 53% 1.4% 60 46% 1.8% Short Eastern Europe 11 25 45 14 18% 8.4% 20 15% 6.0% haul Short haul 276 330 410 54 72% 1.8% 80 62% 2.2% Russia 2 11 30 10 13% 20.3% 18 14% 10.1% Gulf (GCC) 1 2 4 1 1% 7.3% 2 1% 7.2% Medium BIC2 3 6 17 3 4% 7.0% 11 9% 11.0% - long North America 21 21 25 (0) -1% (0.2%) 4 3% 1.8% haul Japan 5 4 3 (2) -2% (3.7%) (0) 0% (1.2%) Rest of the world 15 25 40 10 13% 5.3% 15 12% 4.9% Medium – long haul 47 69 119 22 28% 3.9% 50 38% 5.6% Total ~323 ~400 ~528 ~75 100% 2.1% ~129 100% 2.9% Italy - outbound 18 23 28 5 7% 2.5% 5 4% 2.0% Overall Total ~305 ~376 ~500 ~70 93% 2.1% ~124 96% 2.9% 51% From emerging countries 1. Mediterranean area includes: Egypt, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Cyprus. 2. Brazil, India e China. Source: WTO, The Boston Consulting Group analysis When planning the strategy for the Italian tourism sector it is also necessary to consider not only how much the travellers of different countries will contribute to the growth of the competitive arena context, but also the different habits of spending when varying the countries of origin. Table 8 clearly shows the existence of strong differences in terms of expenditure among tourists of different ethnic and geographic origin. From the tourist average spending point of view, calculated in the ratio between “outbound expenditure” and “outbound departures” stand out tourists from the Gulf area (about €2500), the Brazilians (over €2000) and the Chinese (nearly €1500 – excluding the travelling between Cina, Hong Kong and Macao). As it has been already highlighted, Italy is only the third in its arena context, with a market share of international travellers of 11% (44 millions), behind France (19% share) and Spain (13% share). An evaluation of Italy’s competitive position among other countries can be done by comparing arrivals, even though it is clearly an improper estimate, does not include spending and finally do not consider travellers in transit. In this calculation, as you can see in table 9, Italy is never a leader, not for the short haul number of travellers (western Europe) nor for the long haul (even when including the memorable markets such as Japan and United States and also the emerging markets such as Russia, China and from the Gulf area). The emerging picture is that of a situation of relative leadership and most of all, independently from possible arguments on the punctual interpretation of single indicators, of a situation of real vulnerability in the short term, against very significant opportunities. 13
Figure 8 – International tourism expenditure in western Europe and Mediterranean Average expenditure / Tourist (€)1 Without travelling expenses to reach foreign countries (2010) 3.000 Overall tourists expenditure Gulf2 (€ 50 B) 2.000 Brazil China India Japan 1.000 North Germnay Mediterranean Area3 Russia Eastern UK International Western Europe5 Europe outbound 0 travellers 0 50 100 150 200 (2010, millions) Short haul Medium/Long haul N 1. Defined as ratio between "Outbound expenditure" and "Outbound Departures”. 2. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), includes Saudi Arabia, EAU, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait. 3. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Cyprus. 4. Includes USA and Canada. 5. Includes Scandinavia. Note: China does not include flows between China, Hong Kong and Macao; fixed exchange rate for 2010 (€/$ = 1.3252), nominal values. Source: WTO Barometer 2012; The Boston Consulting Group analysis Figure 9 – Italian market share on international tourists in western Europe and the Mediterranean area Destination coutries market share2 West Eur. Region of origin Italy & Med.1 #1 #2 #3 Italy (Millions) (Millions) West Europe Affluent3 13% Affluent Short 305.2 33.0 21% 15% 11% West Europe Others4 10% haul East Europe 24.9 4.3 21% 17% 8% 17% Russia 11.3 0.6 27% 25% 5% 5% Gulf (GCC5) 1.8 0.1 35% 16% 12% 8% Brazil 1.8 0.2 29% 14% 13% 13% Medium India 1.5 0.2 25% 19% 13% 13% -Long haul China 2.9 0.1 31% 17% 11% 5% North America 20.7 2.9 19% 16% 14% 14% Japan 3.6 0.3 17% 17% 10% 10% Rest of the world 24.9 1.4 6% Total ~400 ~44 19% 13% 11% 11% Note: Russian citizens do not need VISA to go to Turkey 1. West Europe and Mediterranean are includes Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Cyprus. 2. Market share considering travelers (considering the total amount of international travelers within each region of origin). 3.Families owning at least 250 €k managed by banks (Equities, Bonds, Cash & Deposits, ...). 4. Adults, Seniors and Young people. 5. Gulf Cooperation Council (EAU, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait. 6. Brazil, India and China Source: WTO; The Boston Consulting Group analysis 3.3.2. Global trends 14
In order to understand the competitive reason just described it is also opportune to consider some trends on an international level. The last decade has in fact highlighted major changes that have indiscriminately engaged tourism worldwide; they are some global socio-economic “mega trend” that influence and will continue to influence tourism demand on a global scale. Our analysis has identified seven of them, grouped in two macro categories: A) Evolution in the composition of demand 1. Growth of the global economy and increase of flights connections - New tourist demand from the average emerging class of the RDEs (Rapid Developing Economies) - Multiplications of routes and frequencies of short and long haul flights also thanks to the low cost carriers 2. Increase of the senior European tourism - European population is ageing and needs a targeted, advanced and innovative offer B) Evolution in the consumer behaviour 3. polarization of expenditure - The affluent component of the worldwide population is increasing; consumptions of the affluent segment of travel and tourism are typically significant and trading-up type, which means with a willingness to spend much in order to satisfy a certain need. - In the short haul there is as effect that we may define trading-down and trading-up. In other words demand for low cost flights increases and at the same time the demand for high level placement also increases; hence it is needed a very targeted offer (BCG Global Consumer Sentiment Survey 2012). 4. Wellness- Self health - Fitness, self health and psychological well being are increasing 5. Increase of Internet connections - Online sales of the unsold, particularly hotels rooms at “unmissable” prices (even at peak season) - More disintermediation of physical agencies and tour operators in favor of direct purchases - Consumer opinion/judgement has become crucial for the success of a Product - The vast penetration of smart phones has amplified the possibility to access the contents (“always connected”) - Online and social networks presence is crucial to direct the choice 6. Faster lifestyles - More weekends on the short haul - Necessity of faster connections - Shorter tourist stays 15
7. Looking for the authentic experience - custom-tailored trip - in search of a tailor made offer, in line with the consumer specific interests’(such as golf, wine and gastronomy, wellness) There are three main phenomena on a global scale worth giving particular attention to and that demand to be monitored in the future: the increase sensitivity to risks (safety and healthcare), the reaction to the increasing costs of fuel energy, the attention to environmental conservation and the respectability of the cultural sites. 3.3.3. Segmentation In order to define the action plans it has been necessary to identify a strategic segmentation with the aim to better target the efforts e the resources at disposal. Such segmentation has been implemented on the context market for Italy in two specific ways: primary and secondary1. A) Primary segmentation Primary segmentation has been realized following three referral points: the region of origin, the age group and wealth. Based on this scheme, 10 main segments have been identified, grouped in two main bands; short haul and medium-long haul. The primary segmentation obtained is synthetically described in Table 1. 1The presented analysis presented in this section has been carried out by The Boston Consulting Group using data provided by the following sources: WTO, Euromonitor, Economist Intelligence Unit, BCG Global Wealth Research – May 2012, “The Future of Luxury Travel” – Horwath ILTM, American Express Platinum Survey 2012. 16
Table 1. Primary segmentation % Expenditure Relevant characteristics of Segment Under-segment Over Over (€ billion) tourists segment total They know Italy and it is important to provide them a European Western affluent 61 30% 23% specific reason-why for their return Adults 85 42% 32% Other They hardly use tour operator Western Senior 23 11% 9% (apart from Senior), and rather Short Haul European Young 12 6% 4% choose Internet Total 120 59% 45% Medium-low spending budget, but with an increasing level of Eastern European 8 4% 3% income. They still have a positive image of Italy Others short Haul 15 7% 6% Total short haul 204 100% 76% Russia 8 13% 3% They are primarily newcomer, BIC 9 14% 3% with specific needs to be Rapidly Gulf 4,4 7% 2% satisfied. They still often use tour Developing operators. They are attracted by Economies Italy but they know little about it. Total 21 33% 8% Their attention is particularly Medium-long devoted to shopping Haul North America 15 23% 6% They know Italy and visit it once Mature Japan 3,4 5% 1% or more during the course of Far away Total Medum- 18 28% 7% their lifetime. L. Others Lond Haul 24 38% 9% Total medium-long haul 64 100% 24% Total 268 100% Soon after having presented a definite picture through this first segmentation, the analysis has focused on the market share held by Italy on the key segments. The analysis proved how in the short haul Italy has a market share in line with its average one. Differently, on the medium-long haul Italy appears to be late on the priority RDEs (Gulf and BRIC), with the risk to lose the opportunity of fully taking advantage of their future growth. It is instead satisfactory, at the moment, Italy’s positioning on the mature economies (Japan and North America). In order to have important indication in terms of priority segments, it is effective to intersect the market share 2010 for every considered segment with the growth in value expected in the period 2010-2020. From figure 10 it is clear that, for dimension, average expenditure and growth expected for 2020, the priority segments are European affluent, Russians, Chinese, Indians, Brazilians (“BRIC”) and Gulf. Evidently, in the definition of actions in the Plan it is necessary to keep in mind the needs and the criteria of selection specific for each priority segment. 17
Figure 10 – Tourism expenditure expected growth and current Italian market share1 on primary segments towards West Europe and Mediterranean area Expenditure growth '10-'20F (CAGR%) 15 15 Indian Chinese 26 Russian 4 10 10 Gulf3 East 17 European West Europe North 5 Senior West Eur. Americans 96 Affluent4 32 22 West Europe 14 101 West Eur. Japanese Young people Adults 4 Italian market share 0 (expenditure) 2010 (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Short Haul Expected total epxenditure towards the Italian competitive arena 2020F (€20 Bn) Medium-Long Haul 1. Market share on international tourism expenditure. 2. West Europe and Mediterranean area includes Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Cyprus. 3. Gulf Cooperation Council (EAU, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait). 4. Families owning at least 250 €k managed by banks (Equities, Bonds, Cash & Deposits, ...). Source: WTO; The Boston Consulting Group analysis B) Secondary segmentation The objective of secondary segmentation, focused on segments of the short-medium haul (European and Russian in particular) is that of analysing products and specific cross primary segments. The basic idea is that the majority of travelers in the medium and long-haul purchase substantially the "Italy product" (in some cases the "Europe product"), while the short-haul travelers are able to express more differentiated interests and purchase tourism products in a manner much more selective. Alongside the more traditional products of the tourist industry (sea, mountains, lakes and art cities), in the course of the study some significant demand segments emerged, defined on the basis of specific interests and needs. Some of these are clearly supported by international mega-trends, such as "fitness and active sports" (golf, skiing, cycling, etc.), "well-being", "religious tourism", "gastronomy" and "shopping". With regard to the analysis carried out aimed to assess these new segments, by way of example we report some relative information on: i) fitness and active sports, ii) well-being and self-care, iii) religious and iv) shopping. i) Fitness and active sports. In this tourism segment it is necessary to further distinguish the different categories, because the diverse categories under sport generate different markets in which Italy has a heterogeneous position. Hereunder we outline, for example, golf, skiing and cycling. • Golf tourism in Western Europe generates a market share of € 3.6 billion, of which Italy shares only 7%. The principle cause for this can be traced back to the inability to attract international tourist-golfers, with an average expenditure per traveler in line with the European average. It also takes into account, for example, that the cost for international tourists-golfers per golf course in Italy is equal to one-eighth as 18
compared to the Portuguese. The reason for this weakness in a sector which is certainly interesting in relation to expenditure per capita depends on the small number of golf courses compared to its main European competitors, their low prevalence in the territory (mainly in the South, where it would a necessity to develop products Golf + Ocean) and the lack of cluster of golf courses (it is known that golf tourists prefer destinations where there are concentrated numerous golf courses that allow a certain degree of selection on the trip). • Ski tourism in the Alps creates a market of ~ € 16 billion, of which Italy captures only 5% due to an offer which is dated (very few young internationals in Italy) and mainly orientated towards national tourism. • The market for cycling in central and southern Europe is estimated at around € ~ 2 billion, of which 20% in Italy, so this is an area of strength that would necessitate specific investments in order to consolidate a position of leadership. ii) Well-being and self-care. In Western Europe and in the Mediterranean wellness centres (SPA) registered revenues of about € 4 billion from international tourism, 6%. This low market share is due to an average expenditure per international traveler much lower than the European average (~ 120 € vs ~ 270 € per traveler) and depends on an offer certainly not at the level of the leading countries of the segment (eg Austria). Even the spas which in Italy could attract a significant share of this segment of tourism often are not equipped to realize their potential. iii) Religious tourism. A first assessment of the religious tourism market in Western Europe is estimated at € 7.5 billion. Italy attracts 30% of this segment, but it is second behind France. These findings are surprising considering the number of major destinations for pilgrims and religious tourists present in Italy. iv) Shopping for many tourists originating from medium-long haul destinations, shopping has an extremely significantly higher rating than that of European tourists, for example, according to the survey "Chinese consumer travel survey" by The Boston Consulting Group, Chinese tourists allocate 40% of their travel spend in this activity2. Italy, representing excellence in fashion and style, must fully exploit this opportunity. 3.4 The structure and positioning of the Italian offer 3.4.1 The general framework The tourism market in Italy generates 375 million overnight stays. Of these, approximately 55% is generated by coastal areas and art cities and about 44% (165 million overnight stays) is produced by international tourists (Figure 11). 2 Excluding travel costs. Source: BCG Chinese Consumer Travel Survey, July 2010. 19
Figure 11 – Domestic and international nights in Italian accommodation establishments ~55% Region of overall Total % 116 94 49 27 14 13 63 origin (31%) (25%) (13%) (7%)(4%)(4%) (17%) 100 5 1 1 1 1 4 Non – Eur. 35 22 165 M 34 18 14 Eur. ~44% 4 130 7 34 19 50 78 44 30 8 Italians 210 38 6 6 375 0 millions, Sea side Art cities Mountain Lake Hill Others1 year 2010 Termal bath 1. Includes cities not otherwise classified, and minor towns. Note: Europeans include West Europe, East Europe and Mediterranean area; Extra-Eu. includes North America (USA and Canada), Japan, Russia and BIC, GCC (EAU, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) and other minor European or non European countries (RoW). Source: Istat, The Boston Consulting Group analysis As already pointed out, during the last decade nights purchased by foreigners increased most significantly compared to those purchased by Italians. Specifically, from 2000 to 2010, overnight stays by foreign tourists increased at a rate nearly three times more than those of Italians, rising from 140 million to 165 million overnight stays, with a growth rate of 1,6% compared to 0.6 % of those of Italians (table 2). It is a further confirmation of the fact that the strategic choices of the tourism sector must on the one hand aim to strengthen domestic demand, but on the other hand must point towards growth in international demand. Table 2. Nights spent by tourist in Italian accommodation establishments Absolute value (millions) Percentage 2000 2010 Cagr ‘00 – ‘10 2000 2010 Italian tourists 198 210 0,6% 59% 56% Foreign tourists 140 165 1,6% 41% 44% Total tourists 339 376 1,0% 100% 100% As shown in Figure 9, the most attractive tourism product for foreign travellers is art cities, a true global magnet of the Italian tourist offer. In this category, the U.S. is the first customer with 8.1 million overnight stays, followed by Germany (7.6) and France (4.3). With regard to other classic components of the Italian offer (sea, lakes and mountains), the Germans are always the first customers (Figure 12). 20
Figure 12 - Top-10 visitor countries by nights in Italian accommodation establishments (2010) Art cities Sea side Lakes Mountain Country Nights Country Nights Country Nights Country Nights (Mln) (Mln) (Mln.) (Mln) USA 8.1 Germany 11.7 Germany 9.1 Germany 9.7 Germany 7.6 Austria 4.0 Netherland 3.7 Poland 1.2 France 4.3 Swiss 2.8 UK 1.6 UK 0.9 UK 4.2 France 2.5 Austria 1.0 Czech Rep. 0.9 Spain 3.6 Netherland 2.3 Swiss 0.8 Netherland 0.8 Japan 2.0 UK 1.9 Denmark 0.7 Belgium 0.7 Netherland 2.0 Russia 1.6 Belgium 0.6 Swiss 0.7 Swiss 1.5 Czech Rep. 1.5 France 0.5 Austria 0.6 Russia 1.5 USA 1.1 USA 0.3 France 0.5 Austria 1.3 Poland 1.0 Ireland 0.2 Russia 0.3 Subtotal 36.0 Subtotal 30.2 Subtotal 18.5 Subtotal 16.3 Others 19.8 Others 8.4 Others 1.8 Others 2.5 Total 55.8 Total 38.7 Total 20.4 Total 18.8 Source: ISTAT, The Boston Consulting Group analysis Tourism offer analysis cannot be disregarded by the characterization of regional type. This provides a very important perspective, because it allows the observance of how five regions (Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige, Tuscany, Lazio and Lombardy) develop independently ~ 70% of overnight stays by of the foreigners. This is because these regions offer three of the strongest products of our country: the "Four Top Cities" (Rome, Venice, Florence and Milan), Lake Garda and the Dolomites. Aggregating the regional data it is also possible to achieve an analysis which synthesizes the structure of the Italian offer, considering three different supra-regional groups: • the top five regions (Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige, Tuscany, Lazio, Lombardy) • the five major Regions of the South (Campania, Puglia, Calabria, Sicily and Sardinia), • the other ten Regions. Figure 13 shows this aggregation highlighting two useful informative categories to help comprehend the strong asymmetry that characterizes the tourism sector in the country: • the first five regions have generated 91% of the growth in the period 2000 to 2010, • the Southern regions, while possessing invaluable historical assets - cultural or scenic, weigh only 12% of the total and in the decade and captured only 5% of the total Italian growth. 21
Figure 13 – International nights1 in Italy Millions of nights1 CAGR2 '00-'10 +1.6% Weight 200 25 165 1(4%) 150 140 23 (91%) 27 Other Regions 16% 26 1 (5%) 100 118 Top 5 Regions 75% 95 50 19 20 5 big Southern Regions 12% 0 2000 2000-2010 2010 growth 1. In accommodation establishments. 2. Compound Annual Growth Rate. Note: accomodation establishments include hotels, complimentary (camping, rent house, resorts, agricultural acocmodation, youth hostels, holiday homes, alpine hut, other accomodation establishments) and Bed & breakfast. Source: ISTAT, The Boston Consulting Group analysis In addition, in a decade of strong growth in the European market, ten Italian regions have declined or grew less than 1%. To this is then added an important data of general characterization: in the last ten years the number of nights of international tourists in Italy grew by only ~ 1.6% per year, while in the market referred to the annual growth rate was 7.8% (loss of market share in Italy reflects the combined effect of these two elements). 3.4.2 The sea The Italian “sea” product is in deep crisis due to the lack of attraction it nurtures towards international tourism. The main reason is the presence of an alternative offer which is extremely aggressive, more modern and less expensive in different areas of the Mediterranean Basin (Spain and then, but with growing trends, other countries such as Turkey and Croatia). Figure 14 clearly shows that in the period 2000-2010 the number of travelers in the countries of the Mediterranean Basin is growing at a very strong rate (8.2%), while in Italy the sea product has even registered a slight decline. 22
Figure 14 – International inbound travellers dynamic towards Mediterranean countries Country 2000 2010 ∆ '10 vs '00 CAGR (M) (M) (M) (%) Turkey 7.8 26.8 19.0 13.2 Egypt 5.3 13.8 8.5 10.1 Tunisia 5.0 6.8 1.8 3.1 Morocco 2.3 4.9 2.6 7.8 Cyprus 2.6 2.2 (0.5) (1.9) Croatia 5.8 9.0 3.2 4.5 Mediterranean Area1 28.8 63.5 34.7 8.2 % +120% Notti in Italia 39.2 38.7 (0.6) (0.1)% Prodotto Mare ~0% 1. Includes Croatia, usually considered within West Europe Source: World Tourism Organization, The Boston Consulting Group analysis Another aspect deserving of attention is the average size of Italian hotels, which are much reduced, especially considering that the hotel industry is undergoing a global trend that sees the development of large-scale structures, mostly concentrated in large hotel chains. The phenomenon is very clear observing how, against almost 34,000 Italian hotels, Spain and France (our direct competitors) we have respectively 15,000 and 17,000. In addition, focusing on the aspect of dimensions, the average capacity of an Italian hotel is 66 beds, compared with 94 for a Spanish one and 71 for a French one. But the most significant comparison is perhaps that which concerns the average number nights per bed, an index of “productivity” per bed. Italy has an average number of nights per bed equal to 109 compared to France 190. Table 3 focuses on the analysis of marine structures, highlighting the lack of capacity of the structures in Southern Italy, when compared with, for example, those in Spain. Table 3. Comparison between average capacity of sea hotels (year 2010) Italy Spain Top-3 regions product Campania 68 Andalucia 102 sea3 Calabria 75 Canaries 417 Sardinia 116 Baleari 259 Average per country 66 94 3 In terms of nights of Italians and foreigners in accommodation establishments. For the Italian Regions, Campania 6.5M nights, Calabria with 4.8M Sardinia with 4.8M (followed by Sicily with 4.4M and an average capacity of 95 beds per exercise. Abruzzo with 4.3M and an average capacity of 48 beds, Puglia with 3.5M nights and an average capacity of 91 beds). For Spain, the Comunidades autónomas. 23
Finally, always with respect to accommodation, the development of the market for a second home is already mature: the total number of nights in the second home (about 670 million) is about twice that in hospitality establishments. 3.4.3 Italy’s position Considering the size of international demand, Italy's position still remains very strong. This finding is confirmed by a study of Isnart (2011) which showed that in general terms Italy is still the most popular destination by far, followed by France and Spain. With regard to "BRIC", Italy is the country most in demand in Russia, India and China, while it is in second place for Brazilians, preceded only slightly by France. A detailed analysis of the reasons for this success is provided by the study "Buy Italy", University of Bologna, carried out on ~ 350 international buyers. The study reveals how Italy has in the relationship between quality-price (value for money) in infrastructure and hospitality, major weaknesses with respect to global competitors (Figure 15). Figure 15 – Comparison between Italy, Spain and France1 on relevant features for tourists (according to a worldwide survey) Nature 5 4,5 Quality/Price Art & Culture 4 3,5 3 2,5 Infrastructure Infrastrutture e Food&Wine Ricettivo Italia Shopping Francia Hospitality Spagna opportunities 1. Worldwide survey: Europe represents 61% of the sample, North America 20%, Asia 12%, South America 3% and Oceania 3% (~ 350 buyer) Source: "Acquistare Italia", Paper by Department of business of the University of Bologna, in collaboration with the Department for development and competitiveness of Tourism However, it is worth considering that Italy is well positioned with regard to art, history, gastronomy, natural attractions and shopping. This very strong positioning in the mind of the international tourist is all the more true for tourists from BRIC. It is evident, therefore, that Italy needs to exploit its strong brand and its perceived value and enhance it to the fullest. 3.4.4. Districts and priority tourist destinations 24
In Italy there are about 150 districts or tourist destinations, of these, about 40 appear to have a significant growth potential and attraction, especially in terms of the ability to attract international tourists. In order to make a scale of first priorities it is necessary to evaluate individual districts along two axes: the first is the total number of nights, the second is their potential. In doing so, they emerge as important and to be “cultivated” the so-called Global Magnets (Rome, Venice, Milan, Florence), the “Best Sellers” (Lake Garda and Alto Adige), the major sea products in difficulty and about thirty districts of medium-small with high potential (Figure 16). This is clearly a first prioritization exercise of the districts, the most important from the point of view of methodology, and not of actual choices; in this regard it is necessary to deepen the analysis in order to be able to launch pilot projects for the development of these destinations Figure 16 – Italian tourist districts by dimension and development potential Potential for international tourism 1° prioritization MAX E.g.: Global 1° prioritization Medium-little • Costiera Amalfitana districts with high "Magnet" • Rome Average • Naples+Pompei+Gulf Best Sellers • Venice • Smeralda Coast potential expenditure • Milan • Cortina, Cinque Terre • Florence increase • Pisa, Siena, Chianti Medium-little 4 ~60 ~45 MED districts with 30 ~110 ~40 average Big seaside • Alto Adige development products to • Garda lake potential defend and revamp 2 ~50 ~30 30 ~70 ~20 Little districts1 with low developmetn • Romagna seaside potential • North-East seaside 70 ~30 ~5 MIN Nights 2 ~50 ~20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 60 65 (Mln 2010) xx # Districts Nights (Mln) Inbound nights (Mln) 1. Includes almost every district hosting less than 0.3Mln international tourists in 2010 Note: Potential is defined through a quali-quantitative analysis, according to district dimension, foreign/ Italian tourists ratio, international tourists growth and qualitative elements (e.g.: uniqueness, natural or artistic assets, growth enablers presence, ...) Source: ISTAT, Working Group of the Ministry Clearly, the analysis of the products with the greatest potential is not sufficient to be able to develop new districts of attraction internationally in a competitive and crowded market. In order to be able to move from analysis to projects, it is necessary to firstly prioritize the destinations or districts on which to focus their efforts, and secondly to place the identified products accurately, in terms of responding to the needs of the segments of demand most interesting for Italy (affluent Europeans and travelers from BRIC). The development of these products will depend then on the effectiveness of the system of offer in terms of promo- marketing, also through digital channels. It is quite evident that this approach opens up the issue of coordination between the subjects, in particularly among policy makers and the need 25
to find a new way of defining and managing development policies that involve the central State and the Regions (which will in turn find new ways of integrating the offer). 26
4. CRITICAL ELEMENTS FOR TOURISM POLITICS IN ITALY Based on the analysis, research, interviews and consultation of all the available documentation, some critical issues have been identified for the definition of a policy for the development of tourism in Italy. These challenges relate to the assets of the country from the point of view of tourism, distinguished between "permanent assets" and "temporary assets", whereby "permanent" means the Italian areas with recognized prestige and notoriety (religious, naturalistic, gastronomic and artistic-cultural assets) and where "temporary" means the current positioning of the country (for example, lifestyle and fashion), the socio-political context and the large events or exhibitions that take place there (Figure 17). Figure 17 – Italian context: strong assets, but critical elements on intervention levers Areas of Lifestyle, strength Gastronomic fashion, Sales channels assets shopping, ... "Religious" Communication Asset Products and promotion "Permanent" Governance "Temporary" assets of Tourism assets Areas of Socio-political Regulatory context strength Accomodation framework (stability, Worldwide safety ...) artistic-cultural events Training and historical (Olimpic games, and skills assets exhibitions, Expo, ...) Areas of Investments Transportation improvement and infrastracture Critical elements on all intervention levers Source: Working Group of the Ministry The following is a breakdown of the level of criticality that emerged, grouped by single intervention lever. a) Governance of Tourism • This is the most critical principle appraisal that all the operators of the sector report. In terms of a lack of a strong central governance, necessary to make things happen in a cross-sector. • Marginality in the tourism sector in the development policy of the country and fragmentation of the decision-making between Government and regional/provincial/municipal authorities • Minister without portfolio, with few levers and economic resources necessary to guide in an effective manner the development of tourism. • Lack of capability to affect the local offer within global competitiveness. 27
• Lack of a reliable database and efficiently updated and the difficulty in reading tourism data. • Lack of structured mechanisms of co-ordination between Government, Regions and Associations oriented to “make things happen”. • Difficulty in monitoring ongoing actions (or launch), of investments and expenditure linked to the development of tourism. b) Communication and promotion • Role of the Agenzia Nazionale del Turismo (ENIT) insufficient. • Lack of coordinated promotion at the level of “Sistema Italia”. • Lack of digital strategy of the country in terms of tourism. • Absence of a “Sales Management Italy” to take care of setting priorities and develop key products (support to the Regions in product development, including interregional, and in the definition of economic targets that must be met. • Insufficient use of international cinema to promote tourism in Italy in countries that are less familiar with the Italian culture. • Low sensitivity towards the consequences of misconduct and opportunistic for the tourism sector (e.g. fraud). • Passivity in communication and Public Relations (e.g. during crisis management). c) Sales channels • Insufficient use of digital sales channels. • Lack of structured accord at a national level with tour operators outbound international. • Discrepancies between the rating systems of hotels (e.g. the “stars” system”). • Strong fragmentation of the product offer and services for incoming. d) Products • Lack of central co-ordination with Regions on what products to develop and promote on the segments of priority of demand. • Absence of a plan or central thrust in terms of the structuring and promotion of a calendar of events in support of tourism. • No “APP” service for smartphone/tablet aimed at foreign tourists.. • Lack of priority and focus on products/tourist districts to be developed and offer not aligned to the needs of the target segments. • Lack of focus on key target segments in terms of size and expense (affluent Europeans, BRIC e Gulf). • Cultural heritage undervalued both in terms of tourism (number of visitors) and economically (revenue per tourist) with respect to all international benchmarks. • Lack of innovation in tourism products. • Accommodation and infrastructure scarcely adequate to accommodate international conferences. . e) Accommodation • High proportion of outdated and obsolete structures. • Low average size of hotels (especially in the segment family/sea product) the result of investments developed in the fifties and sixties. • Quality and standards vary widely and low reliability of classification systems. 28
f) Transport and infrastructure • Weakness in the infrastructure necessary to accommodate and host the increasing flow of tourists arriving in the next ten years in the “4 Top Cities” (Rome, Venice, Milan, Florence). • Connections “last mile” between the airport and final destination (e.g. Quality Fiumicino train, slow train Malpensa, absence of metro at Linate, etc.) inadequate for standard set for international tourists, in particular for medium- high level. • Amount of direct flights with countries with strong growth inferior with respect to competitor countries (Germany, France, Spain, UK etc.), with regard to national airline companies and foreign companies. • Number of low-cost flights to Europe less than with respect to competitors. • Valorisation incomplete with regard to destinations with potential for low-cost carriers. • Quality rail infrastructure focused only on the axis TO-SA. • No segmentation and taxi service standard. g) Training and skills • General problem of image and low attraction for the tourism profession for the young. • Lack of professional schools at the level of Directorship and tourism management (e.g. École Hôtelière de Lausanne). • Level of professional institutes for Tourism not in line with the needs of the sector. • Combined effect: professionalism in decline, with negative impact on international travellers. h) Investments • Lack of key requirements to attract foreign investment. International investors ask for three main things: fiscal stability, low risk country and structured approach in order to define a “reason why” to invest. • Low confidence of investors in relation to “partner Italia”. • Fiscal pressure and difficult access to credit determine a potential hold on the development of investment in the sector by existing companies. • Absence of a structured approach and co-ordination in order to attract tourism investment, both Italian and foreign. Regulatory framework • Timing and process for issuing visas is problematical in the face of the number of requests in arrival from strong growth countries. • Failure to exploit asset and public location destined for tourism investment.. • Bureaucracy perceived as an obstacle to the development of new tourism districts. • High bureaucracy in the operational management of tourism enterprises. • Margins of the actual tax refund mechanism not addressed to the specialized operators of the tourism industry sector. • Weight of taxation is not consistent with a view to tourism development (e.g. penalty coming from VAT rate not in line with competitors). • Absence of efficient mechanisms to encourage the creation of enterprise networks even in the presence of the phenomena of spontaneous aggregations. 29
These nine areas represent critical scenarios on which it is necessary to dedicate the highest attention in order to establish a coordinated set of actions to requalify the Italian tourist offer as a whole. 30
PART TWO ACTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM 31
5. OVERVIEW OF STRATEGIC ACTIONS 5.1 Holistic approach in defining actions Any action implemented to effectively impact development needs to take into account that tourism and its products are the result of working on all nine levers of intervention illustrated in the previous Chapter, bar none, which is to say: Governance, Communications and promotion, Sales channels, Product range, Hospitality, Transportation and infrastructure, Training and skills, Investments, Regulatory framework. Italy’s assets certainly represent a competitive advantage because they exert a strong attraction for national and international tourists, but the success of tourism products increasingly relies on the ability to act simultaneously on all the levers. For example, there are recent cases of major tourism investment in Southern Italy (for instance some hotels in Sicily), which did not reach its desired goals because of the weakness of some of the identified targets and, conversely, there are positive examples such as Salento (The heel of Italy), where effective efforts were made on all important levers. Furthermore, it is crucial to think of the tourist’s experience as an end-to-end process, i.e. from the moment the potential tourist develops a desire to depart until when, upon returning home, the memory of the trip feeds the desire to revisit the place. This way of thinking about a touristic experience is important particularly for Europeans week-enders, who often go back to favorite destinations that bring to mind important memories. In analytical terms, it is possible to divide the experience of a hypothetical tourist in five main steps: i) The desire to leave based on preferences and needs (individual, socially defined or constraints based on external stimuli); ii) The gathering of information needed to make a decision (taking into consideration that different people use different channels and are sensitive in different measure to the several elements of the tourist offer, such as hotel, transportation, etc.); iii) The decision of how to purchase and the trend to forgo intermediaries thanks to the popularity of search engines and specific digital applications; iv) The experience in its many facets, which is not solely based on the product but all the components of the offer: product, total travel time, quality of transportation, quality and services of accommodation, hospitality, etc. (for example, the quality of the relationship with the first cab driver that drives the tourist to the hotel to the farewell of the flight attendant of the airline that flies the tourist back home); v) The memory and the desire to leave again for a trip, which implies the need to keep alive all positive aspects of the experience, while trying to communicate with the tourists and to provide to them new reasons to return. This set of steps offers a comprehensive approach to the tourist experience. The guidelines of the Strategic Plan, which are explained in the section below, were identified on the basis of these steps. 5.2 Guidelines and potential impact of the Strategic Plan 32
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