Tourism and our regions- the long haul PROFESSOR DAVID G SIMMONS LINCOLN UNIVERSITY NEW ZEALAND - ChristchurchNZ.com
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Tourism and our regions –
the long haul
PROFESSOR DAVID G SIMMONS
LINCOLN UNIVERSITY CHAIR EARTHCHECK RESEARCH INSTITUTE
NEW ZEALAND
Agenda • Explore the global coronavirus outbreak in the context of New Zealand tourism, • Highlight the nature, extent and potential of domestic recreation and tourism (including the inability of New Zealanders to travel overseas), for our region. • Explore how regions and businesses can adapt to a domestically focused market.
Coronavirus ~ A most unwelcome hitch-hiker
Google : international
aviation (24hrs) 2018
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu
/map.html
21:35: 31 Mar, 2020
And so on, onto to New Zealand
Connectedness not distance predicts the spread
of a pandemic
Brockman and Helbing (2013) Science 342, 1337
NZ Herald ; 0904; 20 Apr 2020
Flattening the curve
Virus rolls to more remote regions
Rolling national and
regional outbreaks
vaccine
manufacture @scale
Isolation strategies (level 4) distribute /administer
4 weeks ??
8 weeks : Wuhan
13 weeks UK (BBC)
Outlook for international arrivals • Bleak • My estimate recommence Q1 or Q2, 2022 • Shamubeel Eaqub : 2023 (60 minutes : 19th Aprril) • Best estimate 20 - - 50 percent down But what of domestic travel and tourism?
Tourism: economic impact in New Zealand 58% of tourist expenditure in New Zealand is generated by domestic visitors … includes day trips of more than 40km one way AND 3.01 mn overseas trips were made by New Zealanders last year .. 78% were leisure tips (2.34mn trips) Their take out’ expenditure from NZ is estimated at $6.5bn
Domestic Expenditure
%
REGION Domestic tourism spend
of regional total (2019)
Manawatu-Whanganui 82%
Gisborne 79%
Taranaki 78%
Northland 76%
Hawke's Bay 74%
Waikato 74%
Bay of Plenty 70%
Nelson 68%
Wellington 67%
Marlborough 67%
Tasman 62%
Southland 60%
Canterbury 59%
West Coast 48%
Auckland 45%
Otago – Q Lakes 45%SI Visitation by TLA
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight
(40km)
International
International Day OvernightVisitation … recreation, excursions, tourism
% dom of
TLA total
Waimakariri 96%
Hurunui 92% Domestic Day Domestic Overnight
Timaru 91% (40km)
Ashburton 89% International
Selwyn 88% International Day Overnight
Kaikoura 74%
Christchurch 73%
Buller 69%
Grey 67%
Westland 39%
SI TOTAL 71%% Dom
visitation
TLA of total
Visitation Waimakariri
Hurunui
Timaru
96%
92%
91%
Ashburton 89%
Selwyn 88%
Kaikoura 74%
Canterbury TLA visitation (2018) Christchurch 73%
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Waimakariri Hurunui Timaru Ashburton Selwyn Kaikoura Christchurch
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight Internat'l Day Internat'l OvernightVisitation
West Coast TLA Visitors (2018)
600
500
400 % Dom
visitation
300
TLA of total
200
Buller 69%
100
Grey 67%
Westland 39%
0 TOTAL SI 71%
Buller Grey Westland
Domestic Day Domestic Overnight Internat'l Day Internat'l OvernightFlattening the curve and regional dependencies
Lincoln University 5th April, 2020
2015’ 19th, April, 2020
https://covid19map.co.nz/The outlook
Significant break in international arrivals (across all categories)
Treasury Scenario 1 : 1 year
Vaccine : Q1, Q2 2022… or longer
Potential for an Australian NZ bubble … Pacific
Reduced demand ~ especially for long haul
Domestic travel
IS significant ~ but variable across sectors and activities
Will be supressed along with economic activity
Potential substitution for NZers offshore travel
Post Earthquakes we saw considerable empathy for people and places
A bounce “back” or a long-haul to a new future
Governments work : Respond: reimagine: kick startAction : focus on what we can see and manage Business • Reshaping businesses to a domestic market • accommodation, travel and tours, attractions • Prepare for a staged lifting of pandemic levels Products • Developing new products for the local and domestic traveller • Maori, tours, … Destinations • Reframing local destination visitor strategies and promotional campaigns • Directing to places of need (and opportunity)
Remember 1984!
https://www.ngataonga.org.nz/set/item/173Thank you for your attention David G Simmons Professor of Tourism David.Simmons@Lincoln.ac.nz
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