TOP TRENDS IN FRESH: PERISHABLES ROLES IN A PANDEMIC RETAIL LANDSCAPE - Hosted with thought leadership from FMI associate member March 3, 2021 - IRI
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TOP TRENDS IN
FRESH: PERISHABLES
ROLES IN A PANDEMIC
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
Hosted with thought leadership from FMI associate member
March 3, 2021
Today’s Speakers
Rick Stein, Vice President, Fresh, FMI
Sally Lyons Wyatt, EVP, IRI Center-of-Store & Produce Vertical
Jonna Parker, Principal, IRI Fresh Center of Excellence
www.fmi.org 2
This presentation and any opinions expressed
therein are not created, sponsored or endorsed by
FMI – The Food Industry Association
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Top Trends in Fresh BRIGHT LIGHTS AND KEY LEARNINGS FROM 2020 March 3, 2021
– 2020 –
the Year That Continues
to Change Everything
57% of children and 60% of teens are in
online-only school situations
84% of all shoppers’ meals are made and
eaten in the home; in 2019 48% of
all shoppers’ meals were made and
eaten in the home
38% of shoppers plan to eat healthier
and/or start a new diet – the most
popular 2021 resolution, with another
29% saying spend less money
Sources: IRI Shopper Survey January 2021;
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
The Top Trends in Affordability
Fresh are as relevant
today as when we
launched this series Localization
Holistic
six years ago. Health Customization
to Consumerism
This report focuses Premiumization
New Supply
on the impact these Chains
trends are making Atomization of
Personalization
in the industry.
Convenience
Fresh Food Transparency
Prepared Connected
Consumer
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Fresh Remains Important; However, COVID-19
Drove Grocery and Frozen 2020 Sales Higher
Dollar Share, 2020 54.4%
Dollar Sales % Change
(Sorted Top to Bottom by Total $ Sales)
Calendar Year 2020
38.5%
General Food 13.7%
Meat 19.2%
Beverages 12.1%
Refrigerated 14.0%
Produce 11.4%
7.0%
Frozen 21.8%
Liquor 16.6%
Adult Fresh Foods Grocery, Frozen, Deli 1.8%
Beverages RFG/Dairy
Bakery 6.2%
Share of Incremental Dollars Sold vs. 2019
Seafood 25.7%
8% 34% 58%
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, including both fixed and random weight,52 weeks ending 12-27-20
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
As We Progress Through 2021, Emphasis on
At-Home Meal Making Will Continue to Drive Growth
Top 15 Dollar Sales Change vs. YA / Calendar Year Ending 12-27-20
BEEF $5.8B
CHICKEN $1.8B
PORK $1.2B
BACON $1.1B
FRESH BERRIES $903.M
FRESH SHELLFISH $822.2M
CENTER STORE BREADS $815.5M
DINNER SAUSAGE $815.2M
DELI SPECIALTY CHEESE $753.2M Ground Beef
CENTER STORE BUNS & ROLLS $642.2M Would be #1 (+$2.1B)
DELI GRAB & GO LUNCHMEAT $632.1M
FRESH TOMATOES $625.3M Chicken Breasts, Beef Ribeye and Beef
FRESH POTATOES $608.2M Loins all added more Dollars Than
FRESH FINFISH $548.4M Produce’s Top Category (Fresh Berries)
PACKAGED LUNCHMEAT $501.5M
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, Perishables excluding Refrigerated, including both fixed and random weight, Dollar Change vs. Year Ago 8-16-20 to 10-4-20
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
2020 Changed Affordability
Consumers’ Mobility
and the At-Home /
Out-of-Home Localization
Holistic
Balance; These Health Customization
Trends Were Drivers to Consumerism
of Category Choices Premiumization
New Supply
Chains
Atomization of
Personalization
Convenience
Fresh Food Transparency
Prepared Connected
Consumer
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 102020 Growth in Fresh Food Categories Was a Result of the
Variety of Roles Fresh Plays, Especially in Meal Making
Growth Levers
NEW BUYERS FREQUENCY SPENDING
Shoppers purchased Shoppers had bought The amount they are
for the first time this before, but now paying in each
they had not are buying more often transaction (due to
purchased 2019 volume, units or price)
is more this year
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11As COVID-19 Disrupted Normal Eating /
Actions to
Location / Availability Patterns, Shoppers
Turned to Different Fresh Categories They Consider
Had Not Previously Purchased New Product
Buyers
Top Categories with 2020 Sales Growth Driven by New
Product Buyers, Sorted by Largest Share of Sales Growth
Targeted digital
Bagels & Bialys: RFG,
advertising to
Lamb, Fowl, Exotic Meats Fresh Produce Rinses Pre-Pack, Perimeter incent repeat
purchases
Refrigerated Tortilla / Unsliced
Deli Pre-Sliced Cheese Egg Roll / Wonton Wraps Lunchmeat Chubs
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Shopper Loyalty Supermarket FSP Data, 52 WE 12-27-20
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12Drive Frequency of Fresh Purchases As a
Actions to
Way to Align With the Different Roles
Perishables Play in Meal Making Consider
Frequency
Top Categories with 2020 Sales Growth Driven by
Frequency, Sorted by Largest Share of Sales Growth
Out-of-store
Fresh Cruciferous
promotions to
Fresh Salads, Leafy Vegetables (Broccoli, Fresh Tropical and win trips; bright,
Greens (Pkgd, Bulk, etc.) Cauliflower, etc.) Specialty Fruit
well-stocked
displays in high
traffic areas to
Aisle, Packaged Aisle, Packaged Fresh Snacking /
incent even more
English Muffins Buns and Rolls Salad Vegetables trip frequency
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Shopper Loyalty Supermarket FSP Data, 52 WE 12-27-20
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13As You Increase Trips, Then Promote in
Actions to
Ways to Increase Spend as Well
Consider
Top Categories with 2020 Sales Growth Driven by
Spending, Sorted by Largest Share of Sales Growth
Spending
Meat Department Perimeter
Meals and Side Pastries / Danish /
Dishes Coffee Cakes
Price promotions
of these pandemic
era staples can
Fresh Stone Fruit Refrigerated Condiments Perimeter Bagels sway shoppers
between stores;
utilize TPR, feature
as well as online
In-Aisle Packaged Breads Fresh Chicken
e-commerce deals
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Shopper Loyalty Supermarket FSP Data, 52 WE 12-27-20
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14Discussion Question:
Growth Levers and Actions to Consider
How are retailers capitalizing on the growth in fresh foods during 2020?
NEW BUYERS FREQUENCY SPENDING
Out-of-store Price promotions
promotions to win trips; on staples to build
Targeted digital advertising
to incent repeat displays in high traffic market share; utilize
areas to incent even TPR, feature & online
more trip frequency e-commerce deals
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15These Top Trends Affordability
are Also Changing
the Fresh Foods
Retail Landscape Localization
Holistic
Health Customization
to Consumerism
Premiumization
New Supply
Chains
Atomization of
Personalization
Convenience
Fresh Food Transparency
Prepared Connected
Consumer
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16Unlike Earlier in the Pandemic, Fresh
29.9
Trip Frequency and Channel Share Are
Similar to YA, But Store Trips Are About
In/Out and Stock-Up On the Essentials average minutes in the
store; down >5 minutes
Fresh Foods
pre-pandemic
(FW / RW) CY CY Share %$
flat
Channels Share 2019 2020 Change Change
Traditional
41.5% 42.0% 0.5pts 12.6%
Grocery
trips to any outlet
Mass &
Supercenter
15.5% 15.1% -0.4pts 8.4% change 4 WE 1/24/21
Club 9.8% 10.6% 0.8pts 20.4%
Discount
Grocery
8.0% 7.8% -0.3pts 7.7% 14%
Health/Specialty avg basket size with fresh,
4.0% 3.5% -0.5pts -2.5% change 4 WE 1/24/21
Grocery
Dollar 0.5% 0.4% 0.0pts 6.9%
Sources: IRI Shopper Survey January 2021; IRI Household Panel data including FW/RW
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17E-Commerce Has Also Made Massive
Impact – Opening Fresh Opportunities
Shopper Demand for Online Groceries Has Fast-
Forwarded into 2025, Especially for Perishables
16%
of households use online as their
primary way to buy groceries
throughout the Pandemic
81%
of online grocery shoppers expect to
do this more or about the same even
after vaccinated or restrictions lifted
$9B 2020 Fresh Foods eCommerce Sales
Fresh Foods 2020 eCommerce sales
87% growth, 10 points higher than center
and frozen foods/beverages
Source: IRI eMarket Insights CY 2020 and IRI Shopper Survey, Wave 24 January 2021
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18Shoppers Seek Fresh Foods Differently Online than in Other
Foods and Non-Foods with Retailers’ Websites Driving 6 of 10 Orders
Filter: Dollar Sales
27% of Fresh B&M
42% eCommerce
4% 59% Sales
7%
Total Brick&Mortar Site
Total Brick&Mortar Specialty Site
4% 84%
is Pick-up at
Total Online Specialty
2% Retailer
Total Online Multi-Category 53% 34% 8%
Total Delivery
and 16%
30% Retailer Delivery
20%
10%
Total Store- Food & Non- Center & Frozen Food Perishables (eCommerce
Edibles Tracked)
Source: IRI eMarket Insights CY 2020
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19As the SNAP Online Pilot Became Available, More
SNAP Households Started to Shop Online, and
Fresh Offering Is More Crucial Than Ever
% HHs Purchasing Food & Beverage on the Internet / Total U.S.
14.2 14.0 14.2 14.2
13.4 13.6 13.2
13.3 12.6 12.5
13.0 13.0
12.5 12.7 12.6
10.0 12.1 11.9 11.8 12.2 12.2
9.0 9.0
8.3
7.8 7.7
8.9
7.9 7.9
7.2 7.5 7.5
SNAP Households Non-SNAP Households
Source: IRI Consumer Network™, Total U.S. – Internet 4 WE Feb 23,2020- 4 WE Dec 27,2020
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20SNAP Households Purchase $77B of Total Food & Beverage Annually,
and Typically Shop More Frequently Across a Variety of Channels
SNAP Recipients Represent
12% of the total F&B Spend, and
13% of total U.S. population
A SNAP Shopper on Average Makes
3% more trips* than
total population
SNAP Recipients
F&B Generated Dollars*
12.4%
$77B
Fresh Foods (ex. Dairy) Account for
36% of SNAP shoppers’ annual
food and beverage spend
SNAP
Non-SNAP
Source: IRI Consumer Network™, Total US – All Outlets, 26 WE 12/27/20 / *Total F&B excludes Produce, Deli, Bakery / 52 WE 12/27/20 /.
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21Within Each Fresh Department, SNAP Shoppers Gravitate Towards
Key Categories with Meal Making, Convenience and Comfort Top of Mind
SNAP Recipient 2020 Top Indexed Fresh Categories by Share of Dept. Spend, Compared to Non-SNAP
MEAT PRODUCE DELI BAKERY SEAFOOD
Pork Ingredient Specialty Root Veg Center Store Fresh
Sandwiches
Cuts & Cooking Greens Sweet Rolls Crab
Chicken Wings Deli Entrees Perimeter Fresh
Mangoes
& Legs (esp. Chicken) Sheet Cakes Pollock
Meat Cheese Fresh Mixed Meat / Bakery Fresh
Cracker Kits Veg Pkgs Cheese Tray Cupcakes Catfish
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Shopper Loyalty Supermarket FSP data, 52 weeks ending 12-27-20, full list in appendix
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22Despite 2020’s Affordability
Changes, the Top
Trends in Fresh Still
Guide Consumers Localization
Holistic
Health Customization
to Consumerism
Premiumization
New Supply
Chains
Atomization of
Personalization
Convenience
Fresh Food Transparency
Prepared Connected
Consumer
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23Ideas to Guide the
Future of Fresh
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24Despite All This Growth in Grocery,
Fresh Foods Are Increasingly Ubiquitous
All Types of Stores Are Seen as Solutions
for Fresh Spending by Shoppers
• Supermarkets
• Supercenters
• Club Stores
• Health and Specialty Grocers
• Discount Limited Assortment Grocers
• Independent and Co-Ops
• Local Bakeries, Delis, Butchers, Produce Stands
• Convenience Stores
• Dollar Stores
• Farmer’s Markets
• Coffee Shops
• Fast Casual Dining
• Take-Out and Delivery Services
…and many, many more with similar offerings
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25So How Can Your Store
or Product Win When
Fresh is Everywhere?
Leveraging Fresh Uniquely,
Anchored in What
Consumers Want and Need
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26Long-Term Success Amid an Increasingly Complex Share Game
Requires New Ways of Thinking and Measuring Success
Rethinking Fresh Opportunities for Each Department
MUST HAVE MEAL MAKERS
What triggers a trip to your store over other competitors when every
type of chain markets on the freshest produce and best-value, but
highest quality, meat?
FRESH DIFFERENTIATION FACTORS
What specifically sets your store apart when chains large and small
offer hot / ready baguettes, mixed salad bowls and low-priced
rotisserie chickens?
PREMIUM BASKET BUILDERS
What makes shopping your store (online or in person) a
brag-worthy experience?
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27Potential
Meal Makers Anchor the Shopping
List and the Plate; Must Be Easy to
Find, With Easy to Find Ideas for Marketing
Once You Get Home
Fresh Vegetables – Salad and snack
making staples, fresh ingredients, side
dishes and herbs
In media, out-of-store
trip driving promotions
Deli / Bakery – Grab-and-go luncheon touting pricing
meats and cheeses, prepared meats and
refrigerated side dishes, perimeter breads In-store secondary
signage or multi-item
Meat Department – Ground meats price promotions to build
traditional beef, chicken and pork cuts bigger baskets
bacon, dinner and breakfast sausages
Online ideation via
Seafood – Salmon, shellfish (shrimp social and shopping
and crab) channels as anchor
ingredients to recipes
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28Potential
Differentiation Drivers in Fresh
Should Extend Image and Set Tone,
But Be Unique to Stand Out and Marketing
Appeal to Your Core Shopper
Made-in-store fresh tortillas and tortilla chips
in Southwestern divisions or fresh-from-the-
bakery superfood power granola bars
In targeted social media
activities with targeted
Theme weeks in the perimeter – unicorns, advertising, influencers
“passport to the UK,” local sports, etc. tying in and hashtags
multiple departments such as bakery, cheeses,
wine and produce Décor throughout store
setting the theme,
Online and in-store signage across aisles driving interest to the
noting specific foods preferred for a type of diet event department(s)
such as Keto, Mediterranean, plant-based, etc.
Displays and signage
prominently showcasing
these items that set
YOUR store apart
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29Potential
Set Yourself Apart by Using Fresh
Premium Experiences in Impulse-
Driving Ways Added to Perishables Marketing
and Center-Store Staples
Wide variety of types and sizes of berries
“limited time only” seasonal fruit like
winter citrus, summer melons, cherries
In media, out-of-store
by telling your story –
Specialty cheese programs and charcuterie why you carry, how they
board-ready sliced meats – with assistance or
in-store signage to help pair with meals and
got to your store
activities
In-store secondary
Restaurant-quality steaks, roasts recipe- promotions –
based meal kit programs / claim-based buy this, try that
programs (if aligned with your shopper)
Online shopping
Cart-stopping WOW factor baked goods suggestions as basket
in variety of “event” sizes from one to a builders that correlate
small group to a celebration with staple foods
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30Discussion Questions:
The Future of Fresh
1 | Which fresh foods might
be overlooked for their power,
especially during the pandemic?
2 | With the increase in eCommerce, what
recommendations do you have for
retailers to communicate fresh foods
to their shoppers?
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31The Top Trends Affordability
in Fresh Series
May 5, 2021 Localization
Holistic
Health & Wellbeing Health Customization
to Consumerism
July 21, 2021 Premiumization
New Supply
Sustainability Chains
and Food Waste Atomization of
Personalization
Convenience
October 19, 2021
Transparency Fresh Food Transparency
Prepared Connected
Consumer
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32xxx © 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33
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© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34Mark Clouse Stuart Aitken Vivek Sankaran
President and CEO, Campbell Soup Company Chief Merchant & Marketing Officer, The Kroger Co. President & CEO, Albertsons Companies
November 10, 2020 September 3, 2020 August 25, 2020
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 35IRI’s Latest CPG and Retail Insights Reports to Manage
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© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36CPG Economic Indicators
Access IRI’s industry-standard metrics for consumer product demand and supply
during the pandemic, our CPG inflation tracker and the latest data on category
trends, out-of-stock levels, consumer sentiment and more.
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Demand Index™
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© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38Sally Lyons Wyatt
Sally.LyonsWyatt@IRIworldwide.com
Jonna Parker
Jonna.Parker@IRIworldwide.com
© 2021 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39IRI Global Headquarters
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