THE RISE OF INTELLIGENT VOICE ASSISTANTS: WAVESTONE

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THE RISE OF INTELLIGENT VOICE ASSISTANTS: WAVESTONE
The rise of intelligent voice
                                             assistants:
                                             new gadget for your living room or
                                             window of opportunity to reshuffle
                                             the cards in the web economy?

contacts
                                             O n l y 2 0 ye a r s a g o , s e a rc h e n g i n e s we re d o m i n a t e d by Ya h o o ! . T h e
                                             Californian company was dethroned by a Silicon Valley start-up, Google,
                                             which has since become the undisputed leader of written web search
                                             and related services. The market now seems to be undergoing a new
                                             revolution with the emergence of voice control and intelligent assis-
                                             tants, a revolution that could upset the established competitive order
Philippe Pestanes
philippe.pestanes@wavestone.com
                                             and transform the way that users consume services…
Benjamin Gautier
benjamin.gautier@wavestone.com
                                             G oogle , t h e u nd i sp u t ed l ea d er i n sea r c h eng i nes fo r ov e r
                                             1 5 ye ars
This publication has been created with the
                                             Founded in 1998, in Silicon Valley, Google quickly imposed itself as the leader in search
assistance of Hugo Lemoine and Diane         engines. In 2016, 92% of searches worldwide were made using its platform, compared
Vanderstegen.                                with 2.8% for Bing and 2.6% for Yahoo!.
THE RISE OF INTELLIGENT VOICE ASSISTANTS: WAVESTONE
Google’s dominance is a fact in almost                      number of searches conducted via smart-                                             Market shares of web searches via computer
every country around the world, with the                    phones or tablets has, for the first time,                                          and mobile devices by search engine in 2016
exception of China, where Baidu enjoys a                    overtaken that of searches using a com-                                             (%)
76.5% market share (as opposed to 2.0%                      puter (51% vs. 49%)4.
for Google), and Russia, where Yandex has                                                                                                                                                                               89
                                                                                                                                                   Google
a position equivalent to that of Google                     Changes in the market shares of global web                                                                                                                       95
(respectively 45.4% and 49.1% market                        searches according to connection terminal (%)
share in the final quarter of 2016)1.                                                                                                              Yahoo!          3
                                                            100
                                                                                                                                                                   2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Vancouv
Global market shares of search engines in 2016                                                                                                       Baidu        1
                                                            80
(%)                                                                                                                                                               1                         Computer

                                                            60
                                                                                                                                                                                            Mobile device
                                                                               Computer                                                                                                                       Innovia
             92                            Google                                                                                                    Bing - Expo4 Line
                                                                                                                                                  Vancouver                                                     métro
                                                                               Smartphone and tablet                                                              1
                                  2.8      Bing             40
                                  2.6
                                  1        Yahoo!                                                                                               Yandex RU       1
                                  0.4      Baidu             20                                                                                                0
                                  1.2                                                                                        Innovia
                                           Yandex RU          Vancouver - Expo Line                                            métro            Source: Statcounter; Analyses: Wavestone
                                                             0
                                           Others             T4 ’09    T4 ’10    T4 ’11     T4 ’12     T4 ’13    T4 ’14     T4 ’15    T4 ’16
Source: Statcounter; Analyses: Wavestone                    Sources: Merkle, StatCounter; Analyses: Wavestone                                   Mobile share
                                                                                                                                                          ATM of organic
                                                                                                                                                                    Keolis search
                                                                                                                                                                               Sercoengine visits
                                                                                                                                                                                           TL
                                                                                                                                                in the United
                                                                                                                                                        BCRTC States   in Q1 2017TBM(%) TRTC
                                                                                                                                                                  SNC Lav.                                                        Part
                                                                                                                                                             GTT          RATP             Tisséo            VAG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  utilis
Global leadership of search engines in Q4 2016
                                                                         ATM            Keolis            Serco              TL
                                                                       BCRTC          SNC Lav.             TBM             TRTC                              56
                                                                         GTT             RATP            Tisséo             VAG
                                                                           92                                               Google                                                 49
                                                                                                       2,8                  Bing
                                                                                                       2,6                                                                                                   18
                                                                                                       1                    Yahoo
                                                                                                       0,4                  Baidu                        Google               Yahoo!                         Bing
                                                                                                       1,2
                                                                                                                            Yandex RU           Sources: Merkle; Analyses: Wavestone

                                                                                                                            Autres
                                                                                                                                                In less than 20 years, Google has become
                                                                                                                                                the leading player in search engines on
                                                                                                                                                the web. Nevertheless, it would seem that
                                                                                                                                                it is no longer the only channel favored by
                                                                                                                                                the younger generation for finding infor-
                                                                                                                                                mation. Social media and mobile applica-
                                                                                                                                                tions are beginning to compete with the
Source: Statcounter; Analyses: Wavestone           Google     Yandex RU                    Baidu                                                search engines with shares of 35 and 27%
                                                                                                                                                respectively in the 16 to 24-year-old age
                                                                                                                                                group, who claim that these are the chan-
A simple search index at the outset,                        The trend towards mobile devices has
                                                                                                                                                nels they most frequently use for their
Google has since then greatly expanded                      benefited Google as it has further rein-
                                                                                                                                                web searches7.
its range of services, making the most                      forced its dominance with over 95%
of the rise of digital marketing. Online                    market share in 2016 (compared with 89%
advertising now represents 88% of the                       on computer)5. In fact, 56% of ‘googlers’
                                                                                                                                                The most popular web search channels in
group’s revenue2 and Google captures 1/3                    prefer to use a mobile device for searches
                                                                                                                                                the world according to the users in Q3 2015 (%)
of global net spending on online advertis-                  as opposed to just 44% for computers6.
                                                                                                                                                     Search                                     49
ing3. Its revenue comes mainly from the                     Conversely, the transition to “mobile first”                                            engines                                43
advertising space on its search engine                      for Bing seems to be more reluctant with
(e.g. AdWords, AdSense) and the ten-                        only 18% of the volume of its searches                                                                               30
                                                                                                                                                Social media                                           All
dency towards paid indexing.                                being conducted on mobile devices and                                                                                     35
                                                                                                                                                                                                       16 to 24 years old         Vancouv
                                                            a global market share of 1.2% of total
The last decade has seen strong growth in                                                                                                            Mobile              19
                                                            searches, which makes it the 4th search                                             applications
the use of mobile terminals, such strong                                                                                                                                      27
                                                            engine for mobile devices behind Yahoo
growth that, at the end of 2016, the
                                                            and Baidu.                                                                          Source: Global webindex; Analyses: Wavestone

1- Source: Statcounter                                      4- Sources: Merkle, StatCounter
2- Source: Alphabet, Rapport annuel 2016                    5- Source: StatCounter
3- Source: Statista                                         6- Source: Merkle                                                                   7- Source: Global webindex

                                                                                                   2
THE RISE OF INTELLIGENT VOICE ASSISTANTS: WAVESTONE
The rise of intelligent voice assistants: new gadget for your living room or window
                                                                    of opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the web economy?

Voi ce s earc hes , a rap id ly                                      Attracted by a rapidly expanding market                                       (of which 4 million in the final quarter
                                                                     (1.8 billion IPA users forecast by 2021)11, a                                 alone) and a forecast of more than 60
e xpanding market                                                    number of players have followed Apple                                         million units in 202213. This new object
                                                                     by jumping into the race to develop an                                        includes the intelligent personal assistant
Intelligent personal assistants,
                                                                     IPA. In 2015, the market contained four                                       technology (the same as that in smart-
the spearhead for voice-based web
                                                                     major players: Siri by Apple, Google                                          phones) in a speaker connected to the
searches
                                                                     Now by Google (now known as Google                                            house Wi-Fi, equipped with microphones
In 2011, by integrating Siri into the iPhone,                        Assistant), Cortana by Microsoft and                                          that the user can use to give instructions
Apple became the pioneer in terms of                                 Alexa by Amazon. Competition is about                                         by voice control.
intelligent personal assistants (IPA). These                         to become more intense with the forth-
                                                                                                                                                   With more than 88% of the units sold in
applications are based on two comple-                                coming arrival of the intelligent assistants
                                                                                                                                                   the world in 2016, Amazon Echo is the
mentary technologies: voice recognition                              Bixby by Samsung and M by Facebook,
                                                                                                                                                   undisputed market leader, well in front of
and artificial intelligence. They allow the                          as well as new entrants from the world
                                                                                                                                                   Google who started selling Google Home
user to conduct a web search in the form                             of telecoms (Djingo by Orange etc.). All
                                                                                                                                                   in the US in November 2016 and has just
of a conversation.                                                   of them hope to capture a share of this
                                                                                                                                                   launched its product in France, a market
Searches by voice control have gradu-                                market that could generate revenues of
                                                                                                                                                   where Amazon is still absent 14. Other
ally become part of our daily lives: 65%                             close to 16 billion dollars in 2021, among
                                                                                                                                                   players will soon be entering the market:
of smartphone users in the United States                             others from e-commerce, the sale of user
                                                                                                                                                   Apple with HomePod, Microsoft with
had used an IPA in 2015, two times more                              data and advertising12.
                                                                                                                                                   Invoke, Alibaba in China with Tmall Genie,
than in 2013 8. Frequency of use would                                                                                                             and Orange with its Djingo IPA that will
also seem to be on the increase as 36                                Changes to the numbers of virtual assistant                                   include a version in the form of a speaker.
million Americans will use a personal                                users around the world
assistant at least once per month in                                                                                                               US market shares for smart speakers –
                                                                     Modelling including users of Siri, Google Now, Cortana, and Alexa,
20179, and 50% of searches could be by                               but excluding business use                                                    April 2017 (%)       Moteurs de                                             49
voice by 202010.                                                                                                                                                                   recherche                              43
                                                                                                       +29%                               1,831                6
                                                                                                                                1,642                                               Réseaux                     30
US market shares for smartphone owners using                                                                         1 , 3 76                                                        sociaux                         35                  T
                                                                                                                                                     24                                          Amazon Echo
an intelligent personal assistant (%)                                                                   1,016
                                                                                             71 0                                                                                Applications    Google Home
                                                                                                                                                                                                         19
                                                                      3 90        5 04                                                                                               mobiles                27
                                                                                                                                                                            71                   Others                             Vancouv
                                                                       2015       2016       2017        2018         2019      2020      2021
                                                    65
                                                                     Source: Tractica; Analyses: Wavestone                                                Part des propriétaires de smartphone aux US
                                  56                                                                                                                      utilisant un assistant personnel intelligent (en %)
                                                                                                                                                   Source: eMarketer Analytics; Analyses: Wavestone

                                                                     Changes
                                                                       Vancouver to  theLineglobal market for intelligent
                                                                                 - Expo
                                                                                                                   Innovia
                                                                                                                     métro
               30                                                    personal assistants ($ billions)                                              Consumers prefer the most functional
                                                                                                                                                   and least intrusive smart speakers65(listen-
                                                                                                                                                                 Modélisation incluant l’usage de Siri, Google Now, Cortana, Alexa et excl
               2013               2014          2015                                                                                      1 5. 8   ing and collection         of conversations etc.).
                                                                                                                                                                 l’usage professionnel
                                                                                                                                                                                     56
Source: KPCB; Analyses: Wavestone                                                                       +46%                                       Perception of functionality depends on the
                                                                                                                                12.1
                                                                                                                                                   ease and quality
                                                                                                                                                                  30       of interactions          + 29between
                                                                                                                                                                                                          %                            18
Which among the following intelligent personal                                                                        8.5                          the user and the speaker (language, voice 1 642
                                                                                  ATM            Keolis        Serco               TL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                1 3 76
assistants do you use on your device?                                                                    5. 2                                      recognition and understanding of                      requests,
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1 016
                                                                                BCRTC          SNC Lav.         TBM              TRTC
(% of positive answers; survey conducted                               1. 6       2.GTT0      3.0
                                                                                                   RATP       Tisséo              VAG
                                                                                                                                                   relevance of2013the results)     2014
                                                                                                                                                                                          71 0 the 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                          and             number
                                                                                                                                                                              50 4
in the United States)                                                  2015      2016e       2017p      2018p     2019p         2020p     2021p
                                                                                                                                                                   390
                                                                                                                                                   of native or optional          functions offered on
                                                                     Source: Tractica; Analyses: Wavestone                                         a downloading   2015platform.
                                                                                                                                                                              2016       The
                                                                                                                                                                                          2017 latter,2018 known 2019       2020        20
        Siri                                             25                                                                                        as “Skills” by Amazon Echo and “Actions”
                                                                                                                49
                                                                                                                                                   by Google Home, are equivalent to appli-
Google Now                                     19                                      43
                                                                     An upcoming explosion   of the IPA
                 92                                      Google                                                                                    cations designed exclusively for use by
                                         2,8             Bing        market thanks to smart speakers?                                              voice with smart speakers. Fully aware of
    Cortana                   4                                                       30
                                         2,6                                                        Tous
                                         1               Yahoo       Limited until now35to mobiles, the battle                                     this challenge of functionality, Amazon has
     Alexa                2              0,4                                                        16 à24 ans into
                                                                     for the IPA market has now moved                                              opted for an open source model of plat-
                                                         Baidu
                                         1,2                                      19
   EasilyDo               2                              Yandex RU   the homes of consumers. Introduced into                                       form, and has thus been able to multiply
                                                                                     27
                                                         Autres      the American market in November 2014                                          by 10 the number of skills offered by Alexa
     Others           1                                              with Amazon Echo, smart home speak-                                           in less than one year, breaking the symbolic
                                                                     ers represent a very promising emerging                                       10,000 function barrier in the first quarter
Source: Forester’s North American Consumer Technographics;
Analyses: Wavestone                                                  market with 5.9 million units sold in 2016                                    of 2017.

8- Source: KPCB
9- Source: eMarketer
10- Source: Comscore                                                 11-12- Source: Tractica                                                       13-14- Source: Strategy Analytics

                                                                                                          3
THE RISE OF INTELLIGENT VOICE ASSISTANTS: WAVESTONE
Number of skills available on Alexa                                          Voice, a more practical means of                                         whereas we can write about 40 words
                                                                             interaction than writing in certain                                      per minute, we are capable of speaking
                                                            10,000           situations                                                               around 150 during the same period of
                                                                                                                                                      time15. In this respect, the ability of per-
                                                                             So how to explain this enthusiasm for
                                                                                                                                                      sonal assistants to accurately recognize
                                                                             the voice based web? The first source of
                                                                                                                                                      spoken words is a prerequisite for them
                                                                             explanation could be the growing usage
                                                                                                                                                      to be adopted by consumers.
                                                                             of mobile devices. As we have seen,
                                                                                                                                                      Furthermore, in certain cases, voice
                                                                             mobile devices are now used more than
                                              5,000                                                                                                   searches prove to be more practical for
                                                                             computers to conduct searches on the
                                                                                                                                                      users. This is the case when on the move,
                                                                             Internet, and mobile devices tend to be
                                                                                                                                                      but also in situations in the home during
                               3,000                                         well suited to voice searches, for several
                                                                                                                                                      which the user is busy doing something
                                                                             reasons.
                                                                                                                                                      (for example, cooking or watching the
   135            1,000                                                      One of the main advantages of voice                                      television). Therefore, the situations in
  Q1 ’16           Q2 ’16      Q3 ’16          Q4 ’16        Q1 ’17          searches is their rapidity. In fact, voice                               which voice assistants are the most used is
Sources: Amazon, Presse spécialisée; Analyses: Wavestone                     is reputed to be four times faster than a                                in the home (43%), the car (36%) and when
                                                                             written search:                                                          walking or on public transport (19%)16.
For the time being, Skills/Actions are
free-of-charge, but over time they will
almost certainly depend on the same
                                                                             Main reasons for using voice control in the                               Situations where voice control was used most
business models as smartphone applica-
                                                                             United States in 2016 (% of positive answers)                             in the US in 2016 (%)
tions (advertising models, freemium, paid                                    Useful when the eyes or hands
services etc.) with Amazon and Google                                                             are busy                                    61                 In the home                                          43
taking a percentage of the revenues                                                  Produces results faster                     30
generated.                                                                          Difficult to use written                                                        In the car                                   36
                                                                                commands on some devices                    24
The latter also hope to monetize their
model via sales of speakers and compati-                                                    Pleasure to use                 22                          In public transport or
                                                                                                                                                               when walking                       19
ble connected objects, and positive exter-                                    To avoid complex scroll-down             12
                                                                                                     menus
nalities on their ecosystem: e-commerce,                                                                                                                              At work       3
multi-media services, sales of user data,                                                            Others        1
advertising etc.                                                             Source: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers; Analyses: Wavestone

Our vision of the Amazon Echo business model and its ecosystem

                                                        I n t e r n a l ecosyst e m o f A mazon Ech o                                               Exter nal ecosyst em of Amazon Echo

                                        • Sales of speakers and related                                                               • S ales of partners’ compatible equipment devices (connected objects, home
                                                                                                                                         automation etc)
                                            Echo          Echo Tap                         Echo Look           Echo Show
               Device                                                     Echo Dot

                                        • e-commerce on amazon.com                                                                    • Hosting of third party applications and other online services for partners
                                        • Subscription to Amazon Prime and related services                                          • Commissions on the revenues from Skills
                                           (videos, music, e-books etc.)
      Transact i o na l
         s e rv i c e s

                                        • Sales of the collected user data                                                            • Revenue from advertising and related services (SEA etc.) for partners
                                        • Targeted advertising                                                                        • Commissions on the advertising revenues from Skills

           Adv e rt i s i ng

Source: Wavestone
                                                                                                                                                      15-16- Source: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, 2016 Internet
                                                                                                                                                      Trends

                                                                                                               4
The rise of intelligent voice assistants: new gadget for your living room or window
                                                              of opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the web economy?

Finally, the decisive factor that drives                            four years18, a trend that is expected to                            … and which constitutes the key to
users to prefer voice searches is not so                            continue and is a godsend for the voice-                             entering the lucrative market for
much the fact of being on the move as                               based web.                                                           advertising on the web
having their eyes and hands tied up with
                                                                                                                                         The market for digital advertising on
other domestic tasks, which represent a                             Personal data, a much-prized
                                                                                                                                         the Internet is also experiencing strong
not insignificant part of our active time.                          business that is currently
                                                                                                                                         growth. It reached €162 billion in 2015
                                                                    monopolized by the GAFA…
                                                                                                                                         and could be worth more than €330 bil-
                                                                    The market for personal data collected                               lion in 202020. As the market leader with a
Ve ry luc rative unde rlyin g                                       on the Internet has also become particu-                             market share of almost a third, here again
m ar k ets                                                          larly lucrative. In Europe alone, it was esti-                       Google benefits from its near monopoly in
The explosion in the number of users of                             mated to be worth €60 billion in 2016, and                           the area of search engines, as the adver-
virtual assistants is far from insignificant.                       could reach €80 billion in 202019.                                   tising revenues generated via the search
Underlying web searches, whether written                            This market is monopolized to the tune                               channel (also called paid indexing or SEA
or voice, lies the challenge of their mon-                          of 95% by the GAFA (Google, Apple,                                   for Search Engine Advertising), account
etization; and the forms of monetization                            Facebook, Amazon), starting with Google                              for more than 50% of the global market
are many (e-commerce, sales of personal                             which makes the most of its dominant                                 for digital advertising21.
data, advertising, paid indexing and so                             position in search engines and its as yet
on), and can be rolled out on both fixed                            majority share of users who conduct                                  Changes to the global market for digital
and mobile media.                                                   written searches... a situation that could                           advertising ($ billions)
                                                                    change with the rise in voice control.
The market for e-commerce,                                                                                                                    Advertising via search
                                                                    The stakes in the battle for control over
1st source of revenues on the web                                                                                                             Advertising via other
                                                                    input data are high as this represents                                    means                         +16%                           335
The leading source of revenues on the                               the raw material for another even more                                                                                    3 04
                                                                                                                                                                                   2 70
web is, not surprisingly, e-commerce.                                                                                                                               229
                                                                    lucrative business: that of web-based                                              195
                                                                                                                                          162
This market, which began to emerge at                               advertising.                                                          52%
the end of 1990s with companies such as
                                                                                                                                          48%
Amazon, eBay and AOL, still enjoys sus-                             The trend for personal data
                                                                                                                                          2015        2016p        2017p           2018p      2019p       2020p
tained growth. In 2016, it was estimated to
                                                                                                                                         Source: Statista; Analyses: Wavestone

                                                                    @
be worth more than $1,900 billion and will
probably reach more than $4,000 billion                                                                 Col l ect i on and sal e         Google enjoys a 55% share of the SEA
by 202017.
                                                                    @                               Private data collected on the
                                                                                                    Internet via sites, applications,
                                                                                                                                         market which constitutes a potentially
                                                                                                                                         lucrative opportunity for players on the
                                                                                                    social media etc.                    voice web. The advertising-spend on key
Changes to the global market for e-commerce
($ billions)                                                                                                                             words reached almost $80 billion in 2015
                                                                                                                                         and is expected to continue to grow at an
    e-commerce                                                                                              Sto rage and                 average rate of 12% per annum over the
    m-commerce                              +20%                                                            st ruct ur i ng              next four years, a rate that is driven, as for
                                                           4,05 8
                                                 3 , 418                                                                                 e-commerce, by mobile tools, well suited
                                                                                                    Integration, hosting, and
                +21%                   2 , 860                                                      database management                  to using virtual assistants22.
                               2,352
                       1,915
1 ,336    1,5 4 8              1,499                                                                                                     Changes to the global market for digital
                       1,264
1,0 36    1,118                                                                                            Analysi s and                 advertising via Search ($ billions)
 300                            853
(22%)      430          651    (36%)                                                                       i ntel l i genceE
 2014      2015        2016    2017p   2018p       2019p   2020p                                                                              Advertising via search on mobile devices
                                                                                                    Exploration (datamining) and
                                                                                                    data processing (data science)            Advertising via Search
                e-commerce: +13%                                                                    in order to extract exploitable           on computers
 CAGR 2014-17                                                                                                                                                              +10%                          142 . 5
                m-commerce: +42%                                                                    information                                                                               13 3 . 7
                                                                                                                                                                                      123.8
                                                                                                                                                                           113.7
Sources: eMarketer, Paypal / Ipsos; Analyses: Wavestone                                                                                                        102.5                                      83 . 9
                                                                                                                                                    90.7                                       75.6      (5 9 % )
                                                                                                                                          78 . 3               44.6        56.3        66.1
                                                                                                                                           23.4     33.6
It is, however, interesting to note that                                                                  Ci r culati on and             ( 30%)
this growth has been driven more by the                                                                        tar geti ng                54.9                                                            5 8. 6
                                                                                                                                         ( 70%)     57.1       57.9        57.4        57.7    5 8. 1    (4 1 % )
m-commerce performance (purchases                                                                   Use of compiled data to increase
made via a mobile device) which has                                                                 the effectiveness of ad targeting,    2015      2016p      2017p       2018p      2019p    2020p      2021p
grown three times faster than traditional                                                           artificial intelligence software,
e-commerce (purchases made on the                                                                   and other business services                             Advertising via Search on mobile devices: +24%
                                                                                                                                            CAGR 2015-21
                                                                                                                                                            Advertising via Search on computers: +1%
Internet via a computer) over the last                              Source: adapted from Le Monde
                                                                                                                                         Source: Statista; Analyses: Wavestone

                                                                    18- Sources: PayPal/Ipsos
17- Source: eMarketer                                               19- Source: IDC                                                      20-21-22- Source: Statista

                                                                                                    5
Nevertheless, SEA will have to evolve to
adapt to voice searches. It focuses above
all on key words, sometimes to the detri-
ment of good syntax or natural language.
The future market leaders will therefore
be those who are able to best process
voice requests. Indeed, the indexers make
no mistake: they have put voice searches
in their top 5 priorities for 201723.

The 5 priorities of professional indexers in 2017 (%)
When questioned by SEO Camp, 471 professional indexers
had to choose their priorities for 2017 from a list

            User experience                                             62

                  WebPerf                                         55

        Semantic analysis                                        53

                                                                               Source: image extracted from the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQn6aFQwBQU)
                 Netlinking                          41

             Voice searches                         38

Source: JDN; Analyses: Wavestone
                                                                               K e y s u ccess fac to r s fo r a                               of a conversation in order to grasp the
                                                                                                                                               references and nuances. Not all assis-
                                                                               p ot e n t ia l t r a nsfo r m at i o n o f                     tants have reached the same degree of
Deep underlying markets, robust and                                            t h e w e b sea r c h m a r k et                                development in this respect. After asking
favorable growth drivers…all the con-                                                                                                          Siri: “What is the best Italian restaurant
ditions seem to be in place for the                                            Technical improvements needed                                   near me?”, it is not possible to also ask
market for virtual assistants to explode.                                      To create a real enthusiasm among users,                        it: “What time is it open till?”; Siri will not
Furthermore, some people are already                                           voice assistants still have to fulfill certain                  understand what this question is referring
predicting an exponential growth in the                                        technical criteria.                                             to. On the other hand, Google’s assistant is
advertising spend via virtual assistants:                                                                                                      capable of holding this type of sustained
                                                                               First, they must be capable of recogniz-
according to Juniper Research, the spend                                                                                                       conversation; but it cannot process a
                                                                               ing the words pronounced as accurately
could increase from nearly $400 million in                                                                                                     command such as “Book a table in one of
                                                                               as human intelligence does. The assistants
2016 to over $12 billion in 2021.                                                                                                              my favorite restaurants”. Its level of intel-
                                                                               have made considerable progress in this
                                                                                                                                               ligence is not yet sufficiently developed
Changes in advertising-spend via virtual                                       area over the past few years: Google’s
                                                                                                                                               to be able to understand what “favorite”
assistants ($ billions)                                                        voice assistant has improved from a rec-
                                                                                                                                               means. The improvement of contextual
                                                                               ognition rate of less than 80% in 2013 to
                                                                                                                                               understanding is the key to making a con-
12                                                                             a rate that was slightly greater than 90%
                                                                                                                                               versation with an assistant comparable to
10                                                                             in 201524. Similarly, in October 2016, the
                       12 billion                                                                                                              human interaction. New developments in
 8                                                                             teams at Microsoft have announced that
                       expected                                                                                                                this field would open up major opportuni-
 6                      in 2021                                                their voice assistant has reached a level of
                                                                                                                                               ties for ‘conversational’ commerce.
                                                                               voice recognition comparable to that of
 4
                                                                               human language25.                                               Inherent limits for the use of voice
 2
 0                                                                             Otherwise, for a user to be able to hold                        However, voice interaction is subject to
     2015      2016e     2017p      2018p   2019p        2020p         2021p   a real conversation with its assistant, it is                   limits that are inherent to it. Thus, in the
Source: Juniper Research; Analyses: Wavestone                                  essential for the latter to have developed                      United States, only 6% of users ques-
                                                                               a high level of contextual understanding.                       tioned in a panel declared that they used
                                                                               Contextual understanding means the abil-                        a voice assistant in public. It would seem
                                                                               ity to retain and remember the elements                         that they are not yet comfortable using

                                                                               24- Source: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers
23- Sources: SEO Camp / JDN                                                    25- Source: Bing IProspect

                                                                                                            6
The rise of intelligent voice assistants: new gadget for your living room or window
                                                  of opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the web economy?

a voice assistant in public, partly because
it is still not very natural to communi-
cate orally with a smartphone, and partly
because people do not necessarily wish to
share their searches or the content of their
messages with the general public.
Nevertheless, behaviors are changing
quickly, and few people would have imag-
ined only a few decades ago how normal
it has become to communicate en masse
via social media or the intensive use of
smartphones to carry out all sorts of tasks
(communication, music, Internet searches,
online purchases etc.).

The winning strategy: creating a
revolutionary type of user experience
Faced with this inherent limit in the use of
voice, the winning strategy for voice tech-
nology players should consist of adapt-         Source: image extracted from the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0iLfAV0pIg)

ing to the situations in which users find
themselves.
                                                which are strictly personal objects that                          ble range of applications. Nevertheless,
As seen previously, Internet connections
                                                have to be carried from one room to                               for the time being, Google and Amazon
using mobile devices (smartphone, tablets)
                                                the next to be used. On the other hand,                           have mainly developed voice applica-
are constantly increasing and have over-
                                                Amazon Echo and Google Home have                                  tions in their traditional areas of excel-
taken connections using a computer. Even
                                                been designed to be static, but omnipres-                         lence. The owners of an Amazon Echo are
in the home, consumers now tend to use
                                                ent and family objects, which can hear the                        therefore very easily able to place orders
their smartphones for Internet searches,
                                                voice of a user and obey their commands                           using e-commerce and have meals deliv-
while using their computers for other things.
                                                wherever they are located in the house,                           ered (via dedicated applications such
The voice technology players therefore
                                                and which can be used by all members of                           as Domino’s, Just Eat, Pizza Hut etc.),
need to try to capture the moments when
                                                the household. In this respect, these smart                       whereas Google Home offers an optimal
the user is not in front of their computer,
                                                speakers constitute a real revolution in the                      user experience for streaming, video and
while capitalizing on the private sphere, as
                                                user experience.                                                  music, but it is not yet possible to order
use in public is not currently in vogue.
                                                                                                                  the delivery of a meal or reserve a taxi
It is in rising to this challenge that Amazon   However, to be as attractive as possible,
                                                                                                                  using Google Home, and Amazon Echo is
and Google launched their smart home            these smart speakers need to be con-
                                                                                                                  not interfaceable with Netflix.
speakers. These connected objects,              stantly expanding their ecosystems of
intended for installation in the home,          applications, particularly in the universe of                     The opening up of ecosystems to outside
combine the functionalities of a musi-          the connected home. And the developers                            developers will be the cornerstone for
cal speaker and an intelligent assistant.       have fully understood this: Amazon Echo                           enriching the application environments of
Equipped with a very advanced voice             and Google Home already offer multiple                            home speakers.
recognition system, they are capable of         possibilities of interfacing with connected
                                                                                                                  Finally, to acquire real competitive advan-
hearing the user’s voice up to a distance       objects in the home, including via voice
                                                                                                                  tage, connected speakers will have to go
of about six meters, and they can recog-        control of the most widespread home
                                                                                                                  further than just a wide choice of func-
nize the voices of the different members        automation platforms (or smart hubs):
                                                                                                                  tions by providing the most personalized
of the family thus being able to offer ser-     Samsung SmartThings, Philips Hue and
                                                                                                                  user experience possible. To do so, the
vices appreciated by each of them.              Insteon Hub.
                                                                                                                  developers must place their emphasis
Smart speakers are different from the           Beyond interaction with connected                                 on machine learning in order to reinforce
other common digital objects in the home        objects, these two speakers are also com-                         the contextual understanding capacity of
that are computers and smartphones,             peting to offer users the widest possi-                           intelligent assistants.

                                                                              7
One might imagine, for example, that         nologies are pulling out all the stops to
in the future one of the decisive criteria   keep up with the pioneer and current
when choosing to buy a home speaker          leader in the market for smart home
will be its ability to filter advertising    speakers, Amazon.
based on a good understanding of the
overall context of the searches con-         Web searches conducted via mobile
ducted by the user.                          devices have only just overtaken those
                                             carried out using a computer, and the ana-
                                             lysts are already predicting that 50% of
A w e b revo lutio n is                      searches will be via voice by 2020. Taking
un de rway…                                  a position in voice searches has therefore
                                             become a key challenge for players on the
In 2016, Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft,    web who dream of threatening Google’s
said: “Natural language is the new user      crushing dominance, built essentially on
interface. Bots are like apps and digital    control of written searches. All of them
assistants are like metas apps, or new       are hoping to capture market share that
Internet browsers”. A new war over intel-    could generate tens of billions of dol-
ligent assistants, and in general for the    lars within five years through the many
mastery of voice interactions between        underlying possibilities: sales of devices,
consumers and web services, would there-     commissions on e-commerce sales and
fore seem to be well and truly underway.     revenues from voice applications, digital
The GAFA and other titans of digital tech-   advertising etc.

                                                                                                                          www.wavestone-advisors.com

                                                                            Wavestone is a consulting firm, created from the merger of Solucom and Kurt Salmon’s
                                                                                   European Business (excluding retails and consumer goods outside of France).
                                                                                The firm is counted amongst the lead players in European independent consulting.
                                                                                           Wavestone’s mission is to enlighten and guide their clients in their most
                                                                                    critical decisions, drawing on functional, sectoral and technological expertise.

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