THE RISE OF INTELLIGENT VOICE ASSISTANTS: WAVESTONE
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The rise of intelligent voice assistants: new gadget for your living room or window of opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the web economy? contacts O n l y 2 0 ye a r s a g o , s e a rc h e n g i n e s we re d o m i n a t e d by Ya h o o ! . T h e Californian company was dethroned by a Silicon Valley start-up, Google, which has since become the undisputed leader of written web search and related services. The market now seems to be undergoing a new revolution with the emergence of voice control and intelligent assis- tants, a revolution that could upset the established competitive order Philippe Pestanes philippe.pestanes@wavestone.com and transform the way that users consume services… Benjamin Gautier benjamin.gautier@wavestone.com G oogle , t h e u nd i sp u t ed l ea d er i n sea r c h eng i nes fo r ov e r 1 5 ye ars This publication has been created with the Founded in 1998, in Silicon Valley, Google quickly imposed itself as the leader in search assistance of Hugo Lemoine and Diane engines. In 2016, 92% of searches worldwide were made using its platform, compared Vanderstegen. with 2.8% for Bing and 2.6% for Yahoo!.
Google’s dominance is a fact in almost number of searches conducted via smart- Market shares of web searches via computer every country around the world, with the phones or tablets has, for the first time, and mobile devices by search engine in 2016 exception of China, where Baidu enjoys a overtaken that of searches using a com- (%) 76.5% market share (as opposed to 2.0% puter (51% vs. 49%)4. for Google), and Russia, where Yandex has 89 Google a position equivalent to that of Google Changes in the market shares of global web 95 (respectively 45.4% and 49.1% market searches according to connection terminal (%) share in the final quarter of 2016)1. Yahoo! 3 100 2 Vancouv Global market shares of search engines in 2016 Baidu 1 80 (%) 1 Computer 60 Mobile device Computer Innovia 92 Google Bing - Expo4 Line Vancouver métro Smartphone and tablet 1 2.8 Bing 40 2.6 1 Yahoo! Yandex RU 1 0.4 Baidu 20 0 1.2 Innovia Yandex RU Vancouver - Expo Line métro Source: Statcounter; Analyses: Wavestone 0 Others T4 ’09 T4 ’10 T4 ’11 T4 ’12 T4 ’13 T4 ’14 T4 ’15 T4 ’16 Source: Statcounter; Analyses: Wavestone Sources: Merkle, StatCounter; Analyses: Wavestone Mobile share ATM of organic Keolis search Sercoengine visits TL in the United BCRTC States in Q1 2017TBM(%) TRTC SNC Lav. Part GTT RATP Tisséo VAG utilis Global leadership of search engines in Q4 2016 ATM Keolis Serco TL BCRTC SNC Lav. TBM TRTC 56 GTT RATP Tisséo VAG 92 Google 49 2,8 Bing 2,6 18 1 Yahoo 0,4 Baidu Google Yahoo! Bing 1,2 Yandex RU Sources: Merkle; Analyses: Wavestone Autres In less than 20 years, Google has become the leading player in search engines on the web. Nevertheless, it would seem that it is no longer the only channel favored by the younger generation for finding infor- mation. Social media and mobile applica- tions are beginning to compete with the Source: Statcounter; Analyses: Wavestone Google Yandex RU Baidu search engines with shares of 35 and 27% respectively in the 16 to 24-year-old age group, who claim that these are the chan- A simple search index at the outset, The trend towards mobile devices has nels they most frequently use for their Google has since then greatly expanded benefited Google as it has further rein- web searches7. its range of services, making the most forced its dominance with over 95% of the rise of digital marketing. Online market share in 2016 (compared with 89% advertising now represents 88% of the on computer)5. In fact, 56% of ‘googlers’ The most popular web search channels in group’s revenue2 and Google captures 1/3 prefer to use a mobile device for searches the world according to the users in Q3 2015 (%) of global net spending on online advertis- as opposed to just 44% for computers6. Search 49 ing3. Its revenue comes mainly from the Conversely, the transition to “mobile first” engines 43 advertising space on its search engine for Bing seems to be more reluctant with (e.g. AdWords, AdSense) and the ten- only 18% of the volume of its searches 30 Social media All dency towards paid indexing. being conducted on mobile devices and 35 16 to 24 years old Vancouv a global market share of 1.2% of total The last decade has seen strong growth in Mobile 19 searches, which makes it the 4th search applications the use of mobile terminals, such strong 27 engine for mobile devices behind Yahoo growth that, at the end of 2016, the and Baidu. Source: Global webindex; Analyses: Wavestone 1- Source: Statcounter 4- Sources: Merkle, StatCounter 2- Source: Alphabet, Rapport annuel 2016 5- Source: StatCounter 3- Source: Statista 6- Source: Merkle 7- Source: Global webindex 2
The rise of intelligent voice assistants: new gadget for your living room or window of opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the web economy? Voi ce s earc hes , a rap id ly Attracted by a rapidly expanding market (of which 4 million in the final quarter (1.8 billion IPA users forecast by 2021)11, a alone) and a forecast of more than 60 e xpanding market number of players have followed Apple million units in 202213. This new object by jumping into the race to develop an includes the intelligent personal assistant Intelligent personal assistants, IPA. In 2015, the market contained four technology (the same as that in smart- the spearhead for voice-based web major players: Siri by Apple, Google phones) in a speaker connected to the searches Now by Google (now known as Google house Wi-Fi, equipped with microphones In 2011, by integrating Siri into the iPhone, Assistant), Cortana by Microsoft and that the user can use to give instructions Apple became the pioneer in terms of Alexa by Amazon. Competition is about by voice control. intelligent personal assistants (IPA). These to become more intense with the forth- With more than 88% of the units sold in applications are based on two comple- coming arrival of the intelligent assistants the world in 2016, Amazon Echo is the mentary technologies: voice recognition Bixby by Samsung and M by Facebook, undisputed market leader, well in front of and artificial intelligence. They allow the as well as new entrants from the world Google who started selling Google Home user to conduct a web search in the form of telecoms (Djingo by Orange etc.). All in the US in November 2016 and has just of a conversation. of them hope to capture a share of this launched its product in France, a market Searches by voice control have gradu- market that could generate revenues of where Amazon is still absent 14. Other ally become part of our daily lives: 65% close to 16 billion dollars in 2021, among players will soon be entering the market: of smartphone users in the United States others from e-commerce, the sale of user Apple with HomePod, Microsoft with had used an IPA in 2015, two times more data and advertising12. Invoke, Alibaba in China with Tmall Genie, than in 2013 8. Frequency of use would and Orange with its Djingo IPA that will also seem to be on the increase as 36 Changes to the numbers of virtual assistant include a version in the form of a speaker. million Americans will use a personal users around the world assistant at least once per month in US market shares for smart speakers – Modelling including users of Siri, Google Now, Cortana, and Alexa, 20179, and 50% of searches could be by but excluding business use April 2017 (%) Moteurs de 49 voice by 202010. recherche 43 +29% 1,831 6 1,642 Réseaux 30 US market shares for smartphone owners using 1 , 3 76 sociaux 35 T 24 Amazon Echo an intelligent personal assistant (%) 1,016 71 0 Applications Google Home 19 3 90 5 04 mobiles 27 71 Others Vancouv 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 65 Source: Tractica; Analyses: Wavestone Part des propriétaires de smartphone aux US 56 utilisant un assistant personnel intelligent (en %) Source: eMarketer Analytics; Analyses: Wavestone Changes Vancouver to theLineglobal market for intelligent - Expo Innovia métro 30 personal assistants ($ billions) Consumers prefer the most functional and least intrusive smart speakers65(listen- Modélisation incluant l’usage de Siri, Google Now, Cortana, Alexa et excl 2013 2014 2015 1 5. 8 ing and collection of conversations etc.). l’usage professionnel 56 Source: KPCB; Analyses: Wavestone +46% Perception of functionality depends on the 12.1 ease and quality 30 of interactions + 29between % 18 Which among the following intelligent personal 8.5 the user and the speaker (language, voice 1 642 ATM Keolis Serco TL 1 3 76 assistants do you use on your device? 5. 2 recognition and understanding of requests, 1 016 BCRTC SNC Lav. TBM TRTC (% of positive answers; survey conducted 1. 6 2.GTT0 3.0 RATP Tisséo VAG relevance of2013the results) 2014 71 0 the 2015 and number 50 4 in the United States) 2015 2016e 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p 390 of native or optional functions offered on Source: Tractica; Analyses: Wavestone a downloading 2015platform. 2016 The 2017 latter,2018 known 2019 2020 20 Siri 25 as “Skills” by Amazon Echo and “Actions” 49 by Google Home, are equivalent to appli- Google Now 19 43 An upcoming explosion of the IPA 92 Google cations designed exclusively for use by 2,8 Bing market thanks to smart speakers? voice with smart speakers. Fully aware of Cortana 4 30 2,6 Tous 1 Yahoo Limited until now35to mobiles, the battle this challenge of functionality, Amazon has Alexa 2 0,4 16 à24 ans into for the IPA market has now moved opted for an open source model of plat- Baidu 1,2 19 EasilyDo 2 Yandex RU the homes of consumers. Introduced into form, and has thus been able to multiply 27 Autres the American market in November 2014 by 10 the number of skills offered by Alexa Others 1 with Amazon Echo, smart home speak- in less than one year, breaking the symbolic ers represent a very promising emerging 10,000 function barrier in the first quarter Source: Forester’s North American Consumer Technographics; Analyses: Wavestone market with 5.9 million units sold in 2016 of 2017. 8- Source: KPCB 9- Source: eMarketer 10- Source: Comscore 11-12- Source: Tractica 13-14- Source: Strategy Analytics 3
Number of skills available on Alexa Voice, a more practical means of whereas we can write about 40 words interaction than writing in certain per minute, we are capable of speaking 10,000 situations around 150 during the same period of time15. In this respect, the ability of per- So how to explain this enthusiasm for sonal assistants to accurately recognize the voice based web? The first source of spoken words is a prerequisite for them explanation could be the growing usage to be adopted by consumers. of mobile devices. As we have seen, Furthermore, in certain cases, voice mobile devices are now used more than 5,000 searches prove to be more practical for computers to conduct searches on the users. This is the case when on the move, Internet, and mobile devices tend to be but also in situations in the home during 3,000 well suited to voice searches, for several which the user is busy doing something reasons. (for example, cooking or watching the 135 1,000 One of the main advantages of voice television). Therefore, the situations in Q1 ’16 Q2 ’16 Q3 ’16 Q4 ’16 Q1 ’17 searches is their rapidity. In fact, voice which voice assistants are the most used is Sources: Amazon, Presse spécialisée; Analyses: Wavestone is reputed to be four times faster than a in the home (43%), the car (36%) and when written search: walking or on public transport (19%)16. For the time being, Skills/Actions are free-of-charge, but over time they will almost certainly depend on the same Main reasons for using voice control in the Situations where voice control was used most business models as smartphone applica- United States in 2016 (% of positive answers) in the US in 2016 (%) tions (advertising models, freemium, paid Useful when the eyes or hands services etc.) with Amazon and Google are busy 61 In the home 43 taking a percentage of the revenues Produces results faster 30 generated. Difficult to use written In the car 36 commands on some devices 24 The latter also hope to monetize their model via sales of speakers and compati- Pleasure to use 22 In public transport or when walking 19 ble connected objects, and positive exter- To avoid complex scroll-down 12 menus nalities on their ecosystem: e-commerce, At work 3 multi-media services, sales of user data, Others 1 advertising etc. Source: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers; Analyses: Wavestone Our vision of the Amazon Echo business model and its ecosystem I n t e r n a l ecosyst e m o f A mazon Ech o Exter nal ecosyst em of Amazon Echo • Sales of speakers and related • S ales of partners’ compatible equipment devices (connected objects, home automation etc) Echo Echo Tap Echo Look Echo Show Device Echo Dot • e-commerce on amazon.com • Hosting of third party applications and other online services for partners • Subscription to Amazon Prime and related services • Commissions on the revenues from Skills (videos, music, e-books etc.) Transact i o na l s e rv i c e s • Sales of the collected user data • Revenue from advertising and related services (SEA etc.) for partners • Targeted advertising • Commissions on the advertising revenues from Skills Adv e rt i s i ng Source: Wavestone 15-16- Source: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, 2016 Internet Trends 4
The rise of intelligent voice assistants: new gadget for your living room or window of opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the web economy? Finally, the decisive factor that drives four years18, a trend that is expected to … and which constitutes the key to users to prefer voice searches is not so continue and is a godsend for the voice- entering the lucrative market for much the fact of being on the move as based web. advertising on the web having their eyes and hands tied up with The market for digital advertising on other domestic tasks, which represent a Personal data, a much-prized the Internet is also experiencing strong not insignificant part of our active time. business that is currently growth. It reached €162 billion in 2015 monopolized by the GAFA… and could be worth more than €330 bil- The market for personal data collected lion in 202020. As the market leader with a Ve ry luc rative unde rlyin g on the Internet has also become particu- market share of almost a third, here again m ar k ets larly lucrative. In Europe alone, it was esti- Google benefits from its near monopoly in The explosion in the number of users of mated to be worth €60 billion in 2016, and the area of search engines, as the adver- virtual assistants is far from insignificant. could reach €80 billion in 202019. tising revenues generated via the search Underlying web searches, whether written This market is monopolized to the tune channel (also called paid indexing or SEA or voice, lies the challenge of their mon- of 95% by the GAFA (Google, Apple, for Search Engine Advertising), account etization; and the forms of monetization Facebook, Amazon), starting with Google for more than 50% of the global market are many (e-commerce, sales of personal which makes the most of its dominant for digital advertising21. data, advertising, paid indexing and so position in search engines and its as yet on), and can be rolled out on both fixed majority share of users who conduct Changes to the global market for digital and mobile media. written searches... a situation that could advertising ($ billions) change with the rise in voice control. The market for e-commerce, Advertising via search The stakes in the battle for control over 1st source of revenues on the web Advertising via other input data are high as this represents means +16% 335 The leading source of revenues on the the raw material for another even more 3 04 2 70 web is, not surprisingly, e-commerce. 229 lucrative business: that of web-based 195 162 This market, which began to emerge at advertising. 52% the end of 1990s with companies such as 48% Amazon, eBay and AOL, still enjoys sus- The trend for personal data 2015 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p tained growth. In 2016, it was estimated to Source: Statista; Analyses: Wavestone @ be worth more than $1,900 billion and will probably reach more than $4,000 billion Col l ect i on and sal e Google enjoys a 55% share of the SEA by 202017. @ Private data collected on the Internet via sites, applications, market which constitutes a potentially lucrative opportunity for players on the social media etc. voice web. The advertising-spend on key Changes to the global market for e-commerce ($ billions) words reached almost $80 billion in 2015 and is expected to continue to grow at an e-commerce Sto rage and average rate of 12% per annum over the m-commerce +20% st ruct ur i ng next four years, a rate that is driven, as for 4,05 8 3 , 418 e-commerce, by mobile tools, well suited Integration, hosting, and +21% 2 , 860 database management to using virtual assistants22. 2,352 1,915 1 ,336 1,5 4 8 1,499 Changes to the global market for digital 1,264 1,0 36 1,118 Analysi s and advertising via Search ($ billions) 300 853 (22%) 430 651 (36%) i ntel l i genceE 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p Advertising via search on mobile devices Exploration (datamining) and data processing (data science) Advertising via Search e-commerce: +13% in order to extract exploitable on computers CAGR 2014-17 +10% 142 . 5 m-commerce: +42% information 13 3 . 7 123.8 113.7 Sources: eMarketer, Paypal / Ipsos; Analyses: Wavestone 102.5 83 . 9 90.7 75.6 (5 9 % ) 78 . 3 44.6 56.3 66.1 23.4 33.6 It is, however, interesting to note that Ci r culati on and ( 30%) this growth has been driven more by the tar geti ng 54.9 5 8. 6 ( 70%) 57.1 57.9 57.4 57.7 5 8. 1 (4 1 % ) m-commerce performance (purchases Use of compiled data to increase made via a mobile device) which has the effectiveness of ad targeting, 2015 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p grown three times faster than traditional artificial intelligence software, e-commerce (purchases made on the and other business services Advertising via Search on mobile devices: +24% CAGR 2015-21 Advertising via Search on computers: +1% Internet via a computer) over the last Source: adapted from Le Monde Source: Statista; Analyses: Wavestone 18- Sources: PayPal/Ipsos 17- Source: eMarketer 19- Source: IDC 20-21-22- Source: Statista 5
Nevertheless, SEA will have to evolve to adapt to voice searches. It focuses above all on key words, sometimes to the detri- ment of good syntax or natural language. The future market leaders will therefore be those who are able to best process voice requests. Indeed, the indexers make no mistake: they have put voice searches in their top 5 priorities for 201723. The 5 priorities of professional indexers in 2017 (%) When questioned by SEO Camp, 471 professional indexers had to choose their priorities for 2017 from a list User experience 62 WebPerf 55 Semantic analysis 53 Source: image extracted from the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQn6aFQwBQU) Netlinking 41 Voice searches 38 Source: JDN; Analyses: Wavestone K e y s u ccess fac to r s fo r a of a conversation in order to grasp the references and nuances. Not all assis- p ot e n t ia l t r a nsfo r m at i o n o f tants have reached the same degree of Deep underlying markets, robust and t h e w e b sea r c h m a r k et development in this respect. After asking favorable growth drivers…all the con- Siri: “What is the best Italian restaurant ditions seem to be in place for the Technical improvements needed near me?”, it is not possible to also ask market for virtual assistants to explode. To create a real enthusiasm among users, it: “What time is it open till?”; Siri will not Furthermore, some people are already voice assistants still have to fulfill certain understand what this question is referring predicting an exponential growth in the technical criteria. to. On the other hand, Google’s assistant is advertising spend via virtual assistants: capable of holding this type of sustained First, they must be capable of recogniz- according to Juniper Research, the spend conversation; but it cannot process a ing the words pronounced as accurately could increase from nearly $400 million in command such as “Book a table in one of as human intelligence does. The assistants 2016 to over $12 billion in 2021. my favorite restaurants”. Its level of intel- have made considerable progress in this ligence is not yet sufficiently developed Changes in advertising-spend via virtual area over the past few years: Google’s to be able to understand what “favorite” assistants ($ billions) voice assistant has improved from a rec- means. The improvement of contextual ognition rate of less than 80% in 2013 to understanding is the key to making a con- 12 a rate that was slightly greater than 90% versation with an assistant comparable to 10 in 201524. Similarly, in October 2016, the 12 billion human interaction. New developments in 8 teams at Microsoft have announced that expected this field would open up major opportuni- 6 in 2021 their voice assistant has reached a level of ties for ‘conversational’ commerce. voice recognition comparable to that of 4 human language25. Inherent limits for the use of voice 2 0 Otherwise, for a user to be able to hold However, voice interaction is subject to 2015 2016e 2017p 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p a real conversation with its assistant, it is limits that are inherent to it. Thus, in the Source: Juniper Research; Analyses: Wavestone essential for the latter to have developed United States, only 6% of users ques- a high level of contextual understanding. tioned in a panel declared that they used Contextual understanding means the abil- a voice assistant in public. It would seem ity to retain and remember the elements that they are not yet comfortable using 24- Source: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers 23- Sources: SEO Camp / JDN 25- Source: Bing IProspect 6
The rise of intelligent voice assistants: new gadget for your living room or window of opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the web economy? a voice assistant in public, partly because it is still not very natural to communi- cate orally with a smartphone, and partly because people do not necessarily wish to share their searches or the content of their messages with the general public. Nevertheless, behaviors are changing quickly, and few people would have imag- ined only a few decades ago how normal it has become to communicate en masse via social media or the intensive use of smartphones to carry out all sorts of tasks (communication, music, Internet searches, online purchases etc.). The winning strategy: creating a revolutionary type of user experience Faced with this inherent limit in the use of voice, the winning strategy for voice tech- nology players should consist of adapt- Source: image extracted from the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0iLfAV0pIg) ing to the situations in which users find themselves. which are strictly personal objects that ble range of applications. Nevertheless, As seen previously, Internet connections have to be carried from one room to for the time being, Google and Amazon using mobile devices (smartphone, tablets) the next to be used. On the other hand, have mainly developed voice applica- are constantly increasing and have over- Amazon Echo and Google Home have tions in their traditional areas of excel- taken connections using a computer. Even been designed to be static, but omnipres- lence. The owners of an Amazon Echo are in the home, consumers now tend to use ent and family objects, which can hear the therefore very easily able to place orders their smartphones for Internet searches, voice of a user and obey their commands using e-commerce and have meals deliv- while using their computers for other things. wherever they are located in the house, ered (via dedicated applications such The voice technology players therefore and which can be used by all members of as Domino’s, Just Eat, Pizza Hut etc.), need to try to capture the moments when the household. In this respect, these smart whereas Google Home offers an optimal the user is not in front of their computer, speakers constitute a real revolution in the user experience for streaming, video and while capitalizing on the private sphere, as user experience. music, but it is not yet possible to order use in public is not currently in vogue. the delivery of a meal or reserve a taxi It is in rising to this challenge that Amazon However, to be as attractive as possible, using Google Home, and Amazon Echo is and Google launched their smart home these smart speakers need to be con- not interfaceable with Netflix. speakers. These connected objects, stantly expanding their ecosystems of intended for installation in the home, applications, particularly in the universe of The opening up of ecosystems to outside combine the functionalities of a musi- the connected home. And the developers developers will be the cornerstone for cal speaker and an intelligent assistant. have fully understood this: Amazon Echo enriching the application environments of Equipped with a very advanced voice and Google Home already offer multiple home speakers. recognition system, they are capable of possibilities of interfacing with connected Finally, to acquire real competitive advan- hearing the user’s voice up to a distance objects in the home, including via voice tage, connected speakers will have to go of about six meters, and they can recog- control of the most widespread home further than just a wide choice of func- nize the voices of the different members automation platforms (or smart hubs): tions by providing the most personalized of the family thus being able to offer ser- Samsung SmartThings, Philips Hue and user experience possible. To do so, the vices appreciated by each of them. Insteon Hub. developers must place their emphasis Smart speakers are different from the Beyond interaction with connected on machine learning in order to reinforce other common digital objects in the home objects, these two speakers are also com- the contextual understanding capacity of that are computers and smartphones, peting to offer users the widest possi- intelligent assistants. 7
One might imagine, for example, that nologies are pulling out all the stops to in the future one of the decisive criteria keep up with the pioneer and current when choosing to buy a home speaker leader in the market for smart home will be its ability to filter advertising speakers, Amazon. based on a good understanding of the overall context of the searches con- Web searches conducted via mobile ducted by the user. devices have only just overtaken those carried out using a computer, and the ana- lysts are already predicting that 50% of A w e b revo lutio n is searches will be via voice by 2020. Taking un de rway… a position in voice searches has therefore become a key challenge for players on the In 2016, Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, web who dream of threatening Google’s said: “Natural language is the new user crushing dominance, built essentially on interface. Bots are like apps and digital control of written searches. All of them assistants are like metas apps, or new are hoping to capture market share that Internet browsers”. A new war over intel- could generate tens of billions of dol- ligent assistants, and in general for the lars within five years through the many mastery of voice interactions between underlying possibilities: sales of devices, consumers and web services, would there- commissions on e-commerce sales and fore seem to be well and truly underway. revenues from voice applications, digital The GAFA and other titans of digital tech- advertising etc. www.wavestone-advisors.com Wavestone is a consulting firm, created from the merger of Solucom and Kurt Salmon’s European Business (excluding retails and consumer goods outside of France). The firm is counted amongst the lead players in European independent consulting. Wavestone’s mission is to enlighten and guide their clients in their most critical decisions, drawing on functional, sectoral and technological expertise. 2017 I © wavestone
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