The Report 2021 - SURROUNDS - Jellis Craig
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The Report
2021
RICHMOND
& SURROUNDS
Welcome Welcome to our 2021 edition of The Report – your exclusive insight into the factors shaping the residential property market in Richmond and its surrounds, and the wider metropolitan Melbourne region. There’s no doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant impact on the property market in Melbourne. While border closures, job losses and harsh stage four restrictions presented challenges none of us could have imagined, our real estate market has defied expectations and proven to be very resilient. Since we emerged from the extended lockdown in October 2020, the property market has experienced tremendous capital growth in Richmond and its surrounding suburbs. With Melburnians spending more time in their homes, there has been a sharp increase in buyers looking to upsize to larger properties offering more lifestyle amenity and accommodation. As a result, we have experienced our strongest market in 30 years, with exceptional price growth and multiple bidders at auction. Latest REIV statistics for the June ’21 quarter show house prices across the Richmond region increased an average of 3.1% on the March ’21 quarter. Low interest rates and stronger than expected economic conditions have resulted in increased demand from first and second homebuyers. Coupled with a low volume of stock, looking for that next property has been a challenge for some, creating a bottleneck in certain sectors. Despite the strong growth in house values, we have seen rental values dip, then stabilise over this time. Investors have been cautious, leaving owner-occupiers to take up the slack. As we work our way through the second half of 2021, with people returning to their workplaces and Melbourne opening up again, the rental market is
improving and vacancy rates are decreasing across
Richmond and surrounding suburbs. Developers are starting E L L I OT G I L L
to re-engage with shelved planning permits and there is a Di r e c t o r
strong pipeline of new projects featuring updated designs to
accommodate larger spaces and home offices for a more agile
living environment.
We expect the property market in the Richmond area to
continue in the same trend, with two very distinct gears
– growth in value in the owner-occupier market and a
stabilisation of the investor and smaller apartment market.
In this year’s Report, we examine the market in your area
and investigate the infrastructure improvements that will
add to liveability in Richmond and its surrounds. Macquarie
Group economist Martin Lakos looks into the factors driving
price growth, and Jellis Craig CEO Nick Dowling makes his
predictions about what is next for the property market.
We hope you enjoy our 2021 edition of The Report and we
look forward to guiding you through the sale or purchase of
your next home.
CONTENTS
2 What is really happening in Melbourne's property market | 4 An update on the economy
6 Melbourne's big shift | 8 How we live in our homes is changing | 10 Infrastructure and local insights
11 The Jellis Craig Foundation | 12 In numbers | 13 Exceptional sold property
J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 1
What is really
happening in
Melbourne’s
property market
Nick Dowling What a difference a year makes.
CEO, Jellis Craig
In fact, the results from when we emerged from our
extended lockdown in November 2020 have been nothing
short of astounding. A 90% average weekly clearance rate
for the majority of 2021 across the Jellis Craig group,
After the record-breaking year Melbourne's median house price climbing over
$140,000 in 12 months^.
we have experienced, it is easy
to forget the position we were In the period from January to August 2021, we saw
in 12 to 18 months ago. Picture attendance at our open for inspections increase by 32%
compared to the same period the year prior.
August 2020: lockdown
fatigue had set in and global More than ever before, it is emotion that is driving the
economists and commentators demand and soaring price growth.
were predicting dire economic
The pandemic has led to expats returning home to
conditions, with significant falls Australia earlier than they may have initially intended.
in property prices.
2 Wh a t i s r e a l l y ha p p e n i n g i n Me l b ourn e 's p rop er ty m arket ^Source: Domain
Additionally, the pandemic has seen By contrast it has been a turbulent There is no doubt we are in the midst
people prioritising home by bringing 12-months for the metro-Melbourne of a record high growth period.
to light the ease with which they can rental market due to the impact of
work from home and allowed people COVID-19 on overseas migration and Inevitably these record highs will
to question where and how they the casual work force, combined with rebalance, as the property cycle
want to spend their time. the significant changes in law always does.
introduced through the amendment
There has certainly been a sense of to the Residential Tenancies Act.
‘FOMO’ with buyers getting priced
Inevitably these record
out of suburbs or property types in a highs will rebalance, as the
matter of months. property cycle always does.
Melbourne Median House Price
My predictions for the property
$1,000,000
market for the next 12-months are
$900,000 steeped in learnings from the
$800,000 previous 18-months. Most
consequential is that in our industry,
$700,000
activity builds rather than dissipates.
$600,000
Jun 16
Dec 16
June 17
Dec 17
June 18
Dec 18
June 19
Dec 19
June 20
Dec 20
June 21
Source:
In the short term, I predict that the
CoreLogic disruption to the market during
late winter may result in a reduced
level of available stock in spring.
There has certainly The disparity between the sales and
However, the past has told us that
rental market is highly unusual, given
been a sense of ‘FOMO’ with they typically run in parallel with one after a period of lockdown and
buyers getting priced out of another. reduced activity, prices and demand
tend to surge strongly once life does
suburbs or property types in
However, these disparities are starting return to a semblance of normality.
a matter of months.
to align. Vacancy rates continue to
decrease in Melbourne and there are According to the Government's COVID
Finally, there is the hotly discussed early indications that investors are Response Plan, towards the end of
‘regional boom’, where a huge number returning – a positive sign for the 2021 and into 2022, lockdowns
of Melburnians continue to drive rental market. will be less likely and borders will
growth in regional locations by reopen. For the property market,
purchasing both main and secondary Across the Jellis Craig network, our this will mean that investors will
residences outside of the city. skilled team of agents have once again return to the market,
Similarly, the rental market has adapted very well. With 18-months as will, with the possibility of
increased by up to 20% over a of going in and out of lockdown, we international immigration, overseas
12-month period in some regional have learnt to take the uncertainty buyers. Both of these factors will act
towns with the trend of Melburnian’s that comes with the pandemic in as positive tailwinds. These positive
fleeing the city to work from home our stride. By taking advantage of changes could lead to tweaks
in regional areas. However, these our suite of tools and technologies, from the Government to level the
factors alone have not caused the our teams are able to continue surging prices. This may be done
staggering price increases. Perfect presenting our clients' properties by increasing interest rates, more
economic conditions thanks to to the market and transacting with restrictions on lending, or hiking
consistently low interest rates, confidence. Similarly, we have found stamp duty fees.
government budget initiatives and an that both buyers and vendors are
increase in household savings, willing to commit to decisions whilst
combined with the above emotional in lockdown and through non-
factors are what have led to a 16%* traditional channels.
annual price growth in houses in
Melbourne.
*Source: REIV J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 3
An update on
the economy
Martin Lakos, The doom and gloom predictions, and the discussion
Division Director
of a prolonged recession that we thought would be
Macquarie Group
brought about by the pandemic, have not eventuated.
Globally and locally the economic conditions look strong
thanks to low rates, fiscal support, consumer sentiment
and vaccination progress.
When you look at the data, it is
no wonder Melbourne's median Recent activity data has been significantly better than
house prices have increased expected in Australia. GDP growth is now forecast to be
4.75 % over 2021 and 3.5%* over 2022.
roughly 16%* compared to this
time last year: Employment has also been strong. In fact, not only has
$200 billion stockpiled on Australia’s unemployment rate tumbled to its lowest
level since the start of the pandemic, dropping by 2.4%
Australian personal and with 303,700 more jobs created in only 12 months, but
business balance sheets, $36 it is now also sitting at a record historical low of 4.9%*.
billion released from Australian
At the same time, job vacancies are continuing to rise.
superannuation accounts,
Macquarie Division Director and commentator Martin
record low interest rates and Lakos says these statistics are evidence of an improving
government financial support employment position: ‘A lot of job vacancies are not
being filled, and at the same time hours worked around
for hundreds of thousands of
the country are increasing.'
Australians unlike anything we
have seen before. Various social assistance measures such as JobKeeper
played a crucial role in boosting household income over
the past year. Whilst largely these programs have wound
down, growth in employment has cushioned the effect
of the programs expiring.
4 A n u p d a t e on th e e c onomy *Source: AFR, REIV, ABS
Australia's Unemployment Rate
According to the RBA, household Economic outlook, jobs growth However, several banks have
wealth has increased strongly of late, and household savings were already begun factoring tightening
mostly because housing prices have contributing to a feeling of monetary policy and an increase in
risen, but also because households confidence amongst Australians. RBA interest rates into their pricing
accumulated an unusually large This confidence was reflected in decisions, with longer term home
amount of additional savings demand. However, the situation loan fixed rates on offer rising to
through 2020 due in large part to a in Sydney and other parts of the more than 2%* for the majority in
reduction in discretionary spending eastern seaboard in late winter are the market.
throughout the pandemic. For somewhat starting to dampen this
In addition, there have been some
example, in 2018–19 more than confidence.
early signs of the banks taking
10 million Australians took overseas
In the established home market, we more of a risk averse approach
trips, the majority of which were for
know that prices are rising rapidly, to home lending and factoring
holiday purposes and equivalent to
and demand is high. Martin Lakos in a potential increase in RBA
$43.2 billion. With overseas trips not
says the market will continue to be rates over the coming years in
possible since early 2020, this
buoyant for a few years yet: their credit assessments, with the
discretionary spending has ended up
Commonwealth Bank of
in consumers’ pockets. Aside from
You can’t underestimate the demand. Australia (CBA) increasing its
consumption spending rebounding
In broad terms, the conditions for serviceability floor rate by 0.15%*
rapidly as restrictions have eased,
housing are positive: construction in June, 'to ensure that CBA
Martin Lakos says there are other
is rising, housing turnover has continues to lend responsibly in
signals of confidence:
increased, and many properties are the current record-low interest rate
only on the market for a short time environment'.
Businesses and households are once
before being sold.
again servicing their debts and Victoria’s population growth has
we’re forecasting the strongest been significantly impacted by the
These strong figures and continued
earnings recovery since the 1980s. pandemic. According to Martin
growth beg the question: At what
Lakos the state that was once the
point will there be any macro
Further, as at 30 June 2021, the strongest in terms of population
intervention to slow the escalating
Australian sharemarket broke new growth is the one that has thus far
prices? In terms of interest rates,
ground and claimed a historical been impacted most by the closure
the RBA reaffirmed that interest
record high, closing at more than of the international borders and
rates were remaining steady in
7,500* points. This was more than a internal migration to Queensland,
the short-term and that they were
50% increase on its lowest point in but Victoria will benefit once the
committed to 'maintaining highly
2020 at the start of the pandemic. borders are permanently reopened.
supportive monetary conditions to
support a return to full employment
in Australia'*.
*Source: ASX, AFR, Mortgage Business, ABS - 4th May 2021 J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 5
Melbourne's
big shift
Bernard Salt,
Author and
Demographer
The coming of the Events of this scale force a change in the way of life, and
Victorians have form when it comes to fleeing the city and
coronavirus pandemic is the state during calamitous times.
the most significant event During the early 1990s, in response to the last recession,
to have impacted the state Victoria recorded a net annual outflow of up to 7,000.
of Victoria and its capital Comparatively, in the December ’20 quarter (ABS), Greater
Melbourne recorded a net outflow of 8,000.
since WWII. And it isn’t
over yet. The impact isn’t And it makes sense: diminished employment opportunities
prompted city-folk to look for a cheaper cost of living (and a
so much in the tragic loss better lifestyle) in the country.
of life but in the profound It is worth noting too that more people are likely to be
change in behaviour that it leaving Melbourne for the regions than are leaving the state
has prompted. entirely. I have called these Melbourne-exiters the VESPAs:
Virus Escapees Seeking Provincial Australia.
The rise of the VESPA movement is only part of the
pandemic’s impact. The main game, the big shift, has been
the rise of the work-from-home movement.
6 M e l b o u r n e 's b i g shi f t
I have tracked working from home The same thing happened in the Similarly, uncertainty in the supply
as a lifestyle choice since the 1996 Shire of Mitchell comprising Kilmore chain caused by recent trade
Census when barely 5% of employees and surrounds (9% ABN growth rate), difficulties will surely lead to a
worked from home. That proportion the City of Ballarat (6% ABN growth renewed interest in securing locally
did not shift for 25 years until the rate) and the Shire of Baw Baw (6% manufactured product. Indeed,
pandemic, which, combined with ABN growth rate). this drive for supply chain security
broadband internet access via the is likely to expand into agribusiness
Here is evidence that Victoria’s
NBN, enabled, by my reckoning, up through the 2020s, which could
biggest provincial cities and
to 45% of Melbourne’s workforce to also result in heightened demand
communities are attracting (or
work from home. for industrial space in regional cities
cultivating) a significant
and towns throughout Victoria.
And while there is evidence for an entrepreneurial community.
underlying flee-the-city narrative
during any calamity, the requirement
for as many workers as possible to
work from home (because of the
pandemic) has accelerated the move
to the regions.
New data released by the ABS in
February tracking this trend across
Australia in 2020 shows that it
is the 25–44 (mostly Millennial)
cohort that is leading the escape
to regional Victoria. By contrast, in
2019 the largest outflow from
It is important to note that there is The coming of the coronavirus
Australian cities was the 55-and-over
evidence of a long-term appetite by pandemic hasn’t so much been
tree-changer cohort.
government departments for about access to cheap money
Indeed, I think there is something of decentralisation from the Melbourne and to government support – as
a Goldilocks Zone attracting VESPAs CBD. Consider for example the important as these prompts to
working from home of up to a transfer of the Transport Accident everyday survival may have been
150km radius from Collins St. Commission from Exhibition St to – it has also been about change
And so, if there is indeed a flee-the- Geelong in 2006. This was followed in the everyday behaviour of
city movement underway, enabled by the shift of Victoria’s Workcover Melburnians.
by the work-from-home movement, Authority from Melbourne to Geelong
then it prompts two questions. in 2014. With more people exiting The coming of the
Which places are most likely to be inner-Melbourne for outer suburbia, coronavirus pandemic hasn’t
transformed by newcomers? And what this begs the question, could more so much been about access to
government departments and big
are the implications for businesses cheap money and to government
and towns in these localities? businesses follow suit? Perhaps to
support – as important as these
create a new work-near-home
Over the two years to June 2020 movement where workers gravitate
prompts to everyday survival may
(including the first three months of to suburban regional hubs? have been – it has also been about
lockdown) the number of net new change in the everyday behaviour
But there are other property-related
businesses (ie, ABNs) added to, or of Melburnians.
operating out of, the City of Greater impacts flowing from the pandemic.
Geelong increased by 9%. This The rise in the popularity of online
And at the end of the day, that’s
compares with an Australian average shopping will drive demand for
what really drives the property
business (or ABN) growth rate of 5% industrial, warehousing and logistics
market: it responds to the way that
for this period. facilities both within greater
we locals want to live, work and
Melbourne and in some regional
play in our state, and in our beloved
centres.
capital Melbourne, and I don’t think
we Victorians would have it
any other way.
J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 7
How we live
in our homes
is changing
Lucy Feagins
Editor, The Design Files
Home Offices
The concept of ‘home’ looks very Dr Nichola Powell, chief economist from Domain,
different to this time two years ago. researched the data on how our lifestyle changes in 2020
In the last 18-months we have seen influenced a rapid change in what we were searching for in
our next homes:
the entire world bunker down in
their homes. What has come out Prior to the pandemic, the use of the search term 'home
of this is a re-evaluation of how office' was infrequent. This search term skyrocketed in
popularity during the height of the pandemic, with the use
and with whom we spend our of 'home office' to tailor a property search soaring by 605% in
time, that has in turn allowed us the June quarter, compared to the March quarter of 2020*.
to consider our domestic spaces The importance of a dedicated workspace has hit the home
wish list.
in more careful detail than ever
before. The pandemic has led When we first entered lockdown last year, working from
to a reassessment of how the home for most people consisted of a dining room table or
a simple desk set-up. In the future, spatial organisation will
design, layout, and location of our
change. For some, the home office will be a separate room
homes contributes to our sense with large windows, blackout curtains, and comfortable,
of comfort and community. Here, ergonomic furniture.
we investigate the post-pandemic In addition to being a place of sanctuary during this time
future of how we live in our homes. of global instability, our homes have also become multi-
functional, hard working spaces, quickly adapting to
accommodate online learning and working from home. Long
term, home design will shift to reflect these ongoing needs.
We’ll see a return of the dedicated home office (rather than
'study nook'), and a shift away from totally open-plan living, to
more carefully 'zoned' floorplans, where work life and family
life can co-exist comfortably under one roof.
8 H o w w e l i v e i n our home s i s c ha ng i ngSpace properties (not too cold in winter, Home Improvements
not too hot in summer) and, ideally,
The pandemic has also spotlighted some connection to the outdoors. With our homes becoming our
the importance of having a hard- These factors will push some sanctuaries more than ever before,
working home. One that can stretch homebuyers out of their 'wish list' and with plenty of time to get to the
to accommodate adult children suburbs, further afield and potentially renovations we’ve been meaning to
moving back home, or a kitchen and into new neighbourhoods, if it get to, our homes are improving with
dining area that doubles as an office means a more comfortable, spacious an eye toward making them serve
desk, classroom and cafe. Extra space and feel-good home. more people and more purposes
in homes is now a highly sought- now and into the future. With house
after commodity, with many buyers Natural Light prices surging, and more time than
upsizing earlier than they ever & the Outdoors ever being spent within the family
intended, or downsizers opting for home, home improvements and
new developments with an emphasis After the keyword search ‘study’, renovations have become a high
on space, greenery and light. ‘outdoor’ had the second-highest priority for many Australian
year-on-year growth in the second homeowners.
Beyond being house proud, the way half of 2020*.
we live in our homes now is about
For many, the prolonged impact that The experience of the last 18-months
creating a feeling of health and
staying inside had on our physical will no doubt have a lasting impact
happiness through ample space and
and mental wellbeing, meant that on us and our homes. Many are
light.
people increasingly prioritised rethinking the kind of life they want
natural light and access to nature. to live post-pandemic, as well as the
Now more than ever, we’re looking
role their homes play in this. One
for homes that don’t just look good The pandemic gave us a heightened thing is certain, our homes are
– but homes that genuinely feel good appreciation for the natural world. looking lighter, brighter and more
to be in. So, what makes a home Whether through a backyard, balcony, spacious than ever before.
feel good? Generous proportions, rooftop, or even parks and green
natural light, good ventilation, good spaces, the best cure for cabin fever
acoustic insulation, stable thermal is the great outdoors.
*Source: Domain, RealEstate.com.au J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 9Infrastructure
and local insights
Strong investment continues to spur
property market performance across
Richmond and surrounds, which has long
been sought after for its superb location
and outstanding local amenity.
Richmond and its surrounding Swan St, the heart of Richmond’s The $3 million upgrade of Jack Dyer
suburbs continue to thrive as a retail, dining and entertainment precinct, has Pavilion at Citizens Park is underway
commercial, employment and leisure hub been earmarked for a major streetscape and expected to be finished later this
of inner Melbourne, boosting property overhaul. Improved public spaces year.
market performance and liveability. from Punt Rd to Birrarung Marr will
feature trees and landscaping, outdoor The attraction of being on the doorstep
Significant investment in new dining and seating, public art and of the city’s major sports precinct, with
lifestyle developments is bringing better public transport connections. Olympic Park, the MCG, AAMI Park, John
a heightened level of amenity and Cain Arena and Rod Laver Arena all
driving demand in the vibrant inner- Highly sought-after schools are a within walking distance of thriving Swan
city area. hallmark of the area, with homes in St, contribute to Richmond being one
coveted government enrolment zones of the most popular areas for
attracting premiums. Richmond High Melburnians to live.
Peppers Richmond is on track to open
School has opened a $43 million second
in mid-2022. Located on historic
campus, while Collingwood College and With developers starting to re-engage
Bridge Rd, the highly anticipated,
Melbourne Girls’ College have both with planning permits shelved during
80-room hotel will elevate the
undertaken significant recent building the pandemic, a strong pipeline of new
accommodation scene and offer an
and school improvements. projects are coming to market. The
incredible rooftop bar overlooking
updated designs will accommodate a
the city skyline, Melbourne Cricket
Ongoing improvements in local new way of living, with larger living
Ground and the Botanic Gardens.
facilities are cementing the area’s spaces and home offices to allow a
reputation as an exceptionally liveable more agile working from home
Cremorne’s transformation continues
location. Yarra Council will invest in environment.
apace, with the $1 billion Malt District
a new park in Cremorne, playground
development now a hive of activity
upgrades at Citizens Park and Golden This strong investment across Richmond
as new cafes, shops and startups flock
Square, and spend $3.9 million on and its surrounding suburbs continues
to the area. Melbourne’s thriving tech
new and improved cycling and to spur property market performance
hub – encompassing Domain, REA,
pedestrian links. across the municipality, which has long
Seek and CarSales – around Church
been sought after for its convenient
St and Cremorne will eventually welcome
location, outstanding local amenity and
thousands of new residents and workers.
excellent lifestyle options.
10 In f r a s t r u c t ure a nd l oc a l i n si g htsAwareness. Support. Impact
The Jellis Craig
Foundation
A dedication to active community As with everything we do at Jellis Each office will have the opportunity
service has been central to the culture Craig, we’re looking forward to what to volunteer with The Big Umbrella by
here at Jellis Craig since our inception. is next for the Foundation. creating and distributing meals.
This commitment to giving back to the
community was formalised through We are delighted to be continuing
the establishment of the Jellis Craig our relationship with Headspace.
Foundation in 2013. Since then, the Our donations allow Headspace to
Foundation’s reach has been felt far continue to run critical programs for
and wide, having made a significant young people experiencing mental ill
impact on communities both locally health. Over the next 12 months, the
and internationally. partnership will also fund education
projects for young people, as well
as a mentor program that will see
our employees matched to youths
suffering with mental ill health.
Introduced in 2019, the Community
Contribution Fund allows each of our
offices to apply for a grant from the
Foundation to fund a local community A particularly exciting development
In the eight years since its inception, project that will make a positive impact for the Foundation is our new
the Foundation has raised over $1.6 in their area. partnership with The Resilience Project,
million and worked with four key which provides evidence-based
partners (Headspace, Very Special practical wellbeing strategies to build
Kids, Hands Across the Water, resilience through its emotionally
Breast Cancer Network Australia) engaging programs. Through our
and several other beneficiaries. partnership with The Resilience
Project, Jellis Craig will fund mental
Achieving this has been a collective health and resilience education
effort by all our staff, our leaders programs in up to six primary and
across the network and our board. In a Foundation first, we are delighted secondary schools within our office
Together, we have proven that to be supporting The Big Umbrella network areas each year.
through hard work, local office efforts, this year. The Big Umbrella is a charity
a generous income model from our that provides meals for vulnerable The achievements of the Foundation
property sales, and getting behind Australians experiencing homelessness, thus far encourage us to reflect and
important charities and projects, we and as such it is very close to our hearts. celebrate what we have achieved
can make a huge impact. already, and to look forward to what
we can continue to achieve together.
The J ellis Craig Fou ndatio n 11Richmond & surrounds
in numbers
S C AN TO S EE H OW YOUR
S U B U RB C OMPAR ES
Median Property Prices Dwelling Type
HOUSES TOWNHOUSE UNIT
12%
ABBOTSFORD
54% 34%
BURNLEY
CREMORNE
SEPARATE HOUSE
EAST MELBOURNE SEMI DETACHED
UNIT/APARTMENT
RICHMOND
$0 $0.5M $1.0M $1.5M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M
Source: Property Data Online sold results
Aug 1 '20 - July 31 '21 Ownership
21%
Feature Property
The generous proportions and Edwardian façade of this beautiful period 53%
21%
residence made it a sought-after option for buyers. This home sold for
$1,330,000 in May this year.
OWN
PURCHASING
RENT
OTHER 5%
6 Bell Street
RICHMOND
12 R i c h mo n d & surround s i n numb e rsExceptional
Sold Property
S C AN FOR MOR E
S O L D PR OPER TIES
8 Bennett Street
RICHMOND $2,120,000
407/1 Palmer Street 63 Lyndhurst Street
RICHMOND RICHMOND
193 Mary Street 36 St Phillips Street
RICHMOND $1,961,000 ABBOTSFORD
The Repor t 20 21 13@jelliscraig
Facebook – Instagram
jelliscraig.com.au
Richmond
‘The Report’ has been prepared by Jellis Craig in good faith, as a general guide to the performance and outlook for particular areas of the
Victorian real estate market. The data and information provided in ‘The Report’ is provided by third parties for information purposes
only and does not constitute advice or recommendations. It does not intend to predict future performance of particular suburbs, areas,
properties or property types. You should consider your personal circumstances and obtain independent professional advice before making
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