The Report 2021 - NORTH EAST - Jellis Craig
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Welcome Welcome to our 2021 edition of The Report – your exclusive insight into the factors shaping the residential property market in the North East and the wider metropolitan Melbourne region. There’s no doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant impact on the property market in Melbourne. While border closures, job losses and harsh stage four restrictions presented challenges none of us could have imagined, our real estate market has defied expectations and proven to be very resilient. We have seen a renewed interest in larger homes and acreage properties in the North East as families move from inner city suburbs to secure something spacious and tranquil. As a consequence of remote working, home offices and rumpus rooms have increased in popularity. This trend has seen a number of our suburbs outperform the wider market as they have grown in popularity. Buyer interest has barely waned from the post extended lockdown bonanza that began in October 2020, and prices have held in positive territory. Our current auction clearance rate is 95% on or before auction day. As a result, we have experienced our strongest market in 30 years. Latest REIV statistics for the June '21 quarter show substantial price growth from between 7.5% to 24% over the last financial year within the suburbs we proudly service. Contrary to most of metro Melbourne, the North East experienced tightened vacancy rates over the previous 12 months, more akin to regional locations. This is due to the fact our area has more spacious blocks, larger homes and is close to plenty of parks, reserves and community spaces.
The demand for rental properties in the North East soared K I E RA N WH A L E Y during the pandemic and has remained strong, and we are Di r e c t o r now seeing a supply shortage of available properties in our rental markets. Homes became important to people, and D A N I E L O ' RE G A N apartments were less sought after than they once were. Di r e c t o r Overall, the resilience of the North East market has been remarkable and it is not showing signs of slowing. The J A M I N S I L L UZI O impact of low interest rates, shortage of supply and strong M a n a gi n g Di r e c t o r demand indicates prices will continue to grow over the next 12 months. S C OT T N UG E N T Di r e c t o r In this year’s Report, we examine the market in your area and investigate the infrastructure improvements that C H R I S C H A M PA N will add to liveability in the North East. Macquarie Group Di r e c t o r economist Martin Lakos looks into the factors driving price growth, and Jellis Craig CEO Nick Dowling makes his predictions about what is next for the property market. TO M K UR T S C H E N K O Di r e c t o r We hope you enjoy our 2021 edition of The Report and we look forward to guiding you through the sale or purchase of A A R O N Y E AT S your next home. Di r e c t o r VIRGINIA SIER Di r e c t o r CONTENTS 2 What is really happening in Melbourne's property market | 4 An update on the economy 6 Melbourne's big shift | 8 How we live in our homes is changing | 10 Infrastructure and local insights 11 The Jellis Craig Foundation | 12 In numbers | 13 Exceptional sold property J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 1
What is really happening in Melbourne’s property market Nick Dowling What a difference a year makes. CEO, Jellis Craig In fact, the results from when we emerged from our extended lockdown in November 2020 have been nothing short of astounding. A 90% average weekly clearance rate for the majority of 2021 across the Jellis Craig group, After the record-breaking year Melbourne's median house price climbing over $140,000 in 12 months^. we have experienced, it is easy to forget the position we were In the period from January to August 2021, we saw in 12 to 18 months ago. Picture attendance at our open for inspections increase by 32% compared to the same period the year prior. August 2020: lockdown fatigue had set in and global More than ever before, it is emotion that is driving the economists and commentators demand and soaring price growth. were predicting dire economic The pandemic has led to expats returning home to conditions, with significant falls Australia earlier than they may have initially intended. in property prices. 2 Wh a t i s r e a l l y ha p p e n i n g i n Me l b ourn e 's p rop er ty m arket ^Source: Domain
Additionally, the pandemic has seen By contrast it has been a turbulent There is no doubt we are in the midst people prioritising home by bringing 12-months for the metro-Melbourne of a record high growth period. to light the ease with which they can rental market due to the impact of work from home and allowed people COVID-19 on overseas migration and Inevitably these record highs will to question where and how they the casual work force, combined with rebalance, as the property cycle want to spend their time. the significant changes in law always does. introduced through the amendment There has certainly been a sense of to the Residential Tenancies Act. ‘FOMO’ with buyers getting priced Inevitably these record out of suburbs or property types in a highs will rebalance, as the matter of months. property cycle always does. Melbourne Median House Price My predictions for the property $1,000,000 market for the next 12-months are $900,000 steeped in learnings from the $800,000 previous 18-months. Most consequential is that in our industry, $700,000 activity builds rather than dissipates. $600,000 Jun 16 Dec 16 June 17 Dec 17 June 18 Dec 18 June 19 Dec 19 June 20 Dec 20 June 21 Source: In the short term, I predict that the CoreLogic disruption to the market during late winter may result in a reduced level of available stock in spring. There has certainly The disparity between the sales and However, the past has told us that rental market is highly unusual, given been a sense of ‘FOMO’ with they typically run in parallel with one after a period of lockdown and buyers getting priced out of another. reduced activity, prices and demand tend to surge strongly once life does suburbs or property types in However, these disparities are starting return to a semblance of normality. a matter of months. to align. Vacancy rates continue to decrease in Melbourne and there are According to the Government's COVID Finally, there is the hotly discussed early indications that investors are Response Plan, towards the end of ‘regional boom’, where a huge number returning – a positive sign for the 2021 and into 2022, lockdowns of Melburnians continue to drive rental market. will be less likely and borders will growth in regional locations by reopen. For the property market, purchasing both main and secondary Across the Jellis Craig network, our this will mean that investors will residences outside of the city. skilled team of agents have once again return to the market, Similarly, the rental market has adapted very well. With 18-months as will, with the possibility of increased by up to 20% over a of going in and out of lockdown, we international immigration, overseas 12-month period in some regional have learnt to take the uncertainty buyers. Both of these factors will act towns with the trend of Melburnian’s that comes with the pandemic in as positive tailwinds. These positive fleeing the city to work from home our stride. By taking advantage of changes could lead to tweaks in regional areas. However, these our suite of tools and technologies, from the Government to level the factors alone have not caused the our teams are able to continue surging prices. This may be done staggering price increases. Perfect presenting our clients' properties by increasing interest rates, more economic conditions thanks to to the market and transacting with restrictions on lending, or hiking consistently low interest rates, confidence. Similarly, we have found stamp duty fees. government budget initiatives and an that both buyers and vendors are increase in household savings, willing to commit to decisions whilst combined with the above emotional in lockdown and through non- factors are what have led to a 16%* traditional channels. annual price growth in houses in Melbourne. *Source: REIV J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 3
An update on the economy Martin Lakos, The doom and gloom predictions, and the discussion Division Director of a prolonged recession that we thought would be Macquarie Group brought about by the pandemic, have not eventuated. Globally and locally the economic conditions look strong thanks to low rates, fiscal support, consumer sentiment and vaccination progress. When you look at the data, it is no wonder Melbourne's median Recent activity data has been significantly better than house prices have increased expected in Australia. GDP growth is now forecast to be 4.75 % over 2021 and 3.5%* over 2022. roughly 16%* compared to this time last year: Employment has also been strong. In fact, not only has $200 billion stockpiled on Australia’s unemployment rate tumbled to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic, dropping by 2.4% Australian personal and with 303,700 more jobs created in only 12 months, but business balance sheets, $36 it is now also sitting at a record historical low of 4.9%*. billion released from Australian At the same time, job vacancies are continuing to rise. superannuation accounts, Macquarie Division Director and commentator Martin record low interest rates and Lakos says these statistics are evidence of an improving government financial support employment position: ‘A lot of job vacancies are not being filled, and at the same time hours worked around for hundreds of thousands of the country are increasing.' Australians unlike anything we have seen before. Various social assistance measures such as JobKeeper played a crucial role in boosting household income over the past year. Whilst largely these programs have wound down, growth in employment has cushioned the effect of the programs expiring. 4 A n u p d a t e on th e e c onomy *Source: AFR, REIV, ABS
Australia's Unemployment Rate According to the RBA, household Economic outlook, jobs growth However, several banks have wealth has increased strongly of late, and household savings were already begun factoring tightening mostly because housing prices have contributing to a feeling of monetary policy and an increase in risen, but also because households confidence amongst Australians. RBA interest rates into their pricing accumulated an unusually large This confidence was reflected in decisions, with longer term home amount of additional savings demand. However, the situation loan fixed rates on offer rising to through 2020 due in large part to a in Sydney and other parts of the more than 2%* for the majority in reduction in discretionary spending eastern seaboard in late winter are the market. throughout the pandemic. For somewhat starting to dampen this In addition, there have been some example, in 2018–19 more than confidence. early signs of the banks taking 10 million Australians took overseas In the established home market, we more of a risk averse approach trips, the majority of which were for know that prices are rising rapidly, to home lending and factoring holiday purposes and equivalent to and demand is high. Martin Lakos in a potential increase in RBA $43.2 billion. With overseas trips not says the market will continue to be rates over the coming years in possible since early 2020, this buoyant for a few years yet: their credit assessments, with the discretionary spending has ended up Commonwealth Bank of in consumers’ pockets. Aside from You can’t underestimate the demand. Australia (CBA) increasing its consumption spending rebounding In broad terms, the conditions for serviceability floor rate by 0.15%* rapidly as restrictions have eased, housing are positive: construction in June, 'to ensure that CBA Martin Lakos says there are other is rising, housing turnover has continues to lend responsibly in signals of confidence: increased, and many properties are the current record-low interest rate only on the market for a short time environment'. Businesses and households are once before being sold. again servicing their debts and Victoria’s population growth has we’re forecasting the strongest been significantly impacted by the These strong figures and continued earnings recovery since the 1980s. pandemic. According to Martin growth beg the question: At what Lakos the state that was once the point will there be any macro Further, as at 30 June 2021, the strongest in terms of population intervention to slow the escalating Australian sharemarket broke new growth is the one that has thus far prices? In terms of interest rates, ground and claimed a historical been impacted most by the closure the RBA reaffirmed that interest record high, closing at more than of the international borders and rates were remaining steady in 7,500* points. This was more than a internal migration to Queensland, the short-term and that they were 50% increase on its lowest point in but Victoria will benefit once the committed to 'maintaining highly 2020 at the start of the pandemic. borders are permanently reopened. supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia'*. *Source: ASX, AFR, Mortgage Business, ABS - 4th May 2021 J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 5
Melbourne's big shift Bernard Salt, Author and Demographer The coming of the Events of this scale force a change in the way of life, and Victorians have form when it comes to fleeing the city and coronavirus pandemic is the state during calamitous times. the most significant event During the early 1990s, in response to the last recession, to have impacted the state Victoria recorded a net annual outflow of up to 7,000. of Victoria and its capital Comparatively, in the December ’20 quarter (ABS), Greater Melbourne recorded a net outflow of 8,000. since WWII. And it isn’t over yet. The impact isn’t And it makes sense: diminished employment opportunities prompted city-folk to look for a cheaper cost of living (and a so much in the tragic loss better lifestyle) in the country. of life but in the profound It is worth noting too that more people are likely to be change in behaviour that it leaving Melbourne for the regions than are leaving the state has prompted. entirely. I have called these Melbourne-exiters the VESPAs: Virus Escapees Seeking Provincial Australia. The rise of the VESPA movement is only part of the pandemic’s impact. The main game, the big shift, has been the rise of the work-from-home movement. 6 M e l b o u r n e 's b i g shi f t
I have tracked working from home The same thing happened in the Similarly, uncertainty in the supply as a lifestyle choice since the 1996 Shire of Mitchell comprising Kilmore chain caused by recent trade Census when barely 5% of employees and surrounds (9% ABN growth rate), difficulties will surely lead to a worked from home. That proportion the City of Ballarat (6% ABN growth renewed interest in securing locally did not shift for 25 years until the rate) and the Shire of Baw Baw (6% manufactured product. Indeed, pandemic, which, combined with ABN growth rate). this drive for supply chain security broadband internet access via the is likely to expand into agribusiness Here is evidence that Victoria’s NBN, enabled, by my reckoning, up through the 2020s, which could biggest provincial cities and to 45% of Melbourne’s workforce to also result in heightened demand communities are attracting (or work from home. for industrial space in regional cities cultivating) a significant and towns throughout Victoria. And while there is evidence for an entrepreneurial community. underlying flee-the-city narrative during any calamity, the requirement for as many workers as possible to work from home (because of the pandemic) has accelerated the move to the regions. New data released by the ABS in February tracking this trend across Australia in 2020 shows that it is the 25–44 (mostly Millennial) cohort that is leading the escape to regional Victoria. By contrast, in 2019 the largest outflow from It is important to note that there is The coming of the coronavirus Australian cities was the 55-and-over evidence of a long-term appetite by pandemic hasn’t so much been tree-changer cohort. government departments for about access to cheap money Indeed, I think there is something of decentralisation from the Melbourne and to government support – as a Goldilocks Zone attracting VESPAs CBD. Consider for example the important as these prompts to working from home of up to a transfer of the Transport Accident everyday survival may have been 150km radius from Collins St. Commission from Exhibition St to – it has also been about change And so, if there is indeed a flee-the- Geelong in 2006. This was followed in the everyday behaviour of city movement underway, enabled by the shift of Victoria’s Workcover Melburnians. by the work-from-home movement, Authority from Melbourne to Geelong then it prompts two questions. in 2014. With more people exiting The coming of the Which places are most likely to be inner-Melbourne for outer suburbia, coronavirus pandemic hasn’t transformed by newcomers? And what this begs the question, could more so much been about access to government departments and big are the implications for businesses cheap money and to government and towns in these localities? businesses follow suit? Perhaps to support – as important as these create a new work-near-home Over the two years to June 2020 movement where workers gravitate prompts to everyday survival may (including the first three months of to suburban regional hubs? have been – it has also been about lockdown) the number of net new change in the everyday behaviour But there are other property-related businesses (ie, ABNs) added to, or of Melburnians. operating out of, the City of Greater impacts flowing from the pandemic. Geelong increased by 9%. This The rise in the popularity of online And at the end of the day, that’s compares with an Australian average shopping will drive demand for what really drives the property business (or ABN) growth rate of 5% industrial, warehousing and logistics market: it responds to the way that for this period. facilities both within greater we locals want to live, work and Melbourne and in some regional play in our state, and in our beloved centres. capital Melbourne, and I don’t think we Victorians would have it any other way. J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 7
How we live in our homes is changing Lucy Feagins Editor, The Design Files Home Offices The concept of ‘home’ looks very Dr Nichola Powell, chief economist from Domain, different to this time two years ago. researched the data on how our lifestyle changes in 2020 In the last 18-months we have seen influenced a rapid change in what we were searching for in our next homes: the entire world bunker down in their homes. What has come out Prior to the pandemic, the use of the search term 'home of this is a re-evaluation of how office' was infrequent. This search term skyrocketed in popularity during the height of the pandemic, with the use and with whom we spend our of 'home office' to tailor a property search soaring by 605% in time, that has in turn allowed us the June quarter, compared to the March quarter of 2020*. to consider our domestic spaces The importance of a dedicated workspace has hit the home wish list. in more careful detail than ever before. The pandemic has led When we first entered lockdown last year, working from to a reassessment of how the home for most people consisted of a dining room table or a simple desk set-up. In the future, spatial organisation will design, layout, and location of our change. For some, the home office will be a separate room homes contributes to our sense with large windows, blackout curtains, and comfortable, of comfort and community. Here, ergonomic furniture. we investigate the post-pandemic In addition to being a place of sanctuary during this time future of how we live in our homes. of global instability, our homes have also become multi- functional, hard working spaces, quickly adapting to accommodate online learning and working from home. Long term, home design will shift to reflect these ongoing needs. We’ll see a return of the dedicated home office (rather than 'study nook'), and a shift away from totally open-plan living, to more carefully 'zoned' floorplans, where work life and family life can co-exist comfortably under one roof. 8 H o w w e l i v e i n our home s i s c ha ng i ng
Space properties (not too cold in winter, Home Improvements not too hot in summer) and, ideally, The pandemic has also spotlighted some connection to the outdoors. With our homes becoming our the importance of having a hard- These factors will push some sanctuaries more than ever before, working home. One that can stretch homebuyers out of their 'wish list' and with plenty of time to get to the to accommodate adult children suburbs, further afield and potentially renovations we’ve been meaning to moving back home, or a kitchen and into new neighbourhoods, if it get to, our homes are improving with dining area that doubles as an office means a more comfortable, spacious an eye toward making them serve desk, classroom and cafe. Extra space and feel-good home. more people and more purposes in homes is now a highly sought- now and into the future. With house after commodity, with many buyers Natural Light prices surging, and more time than upsizing earlier than they ever & the Outdoors ever being spent within the family intended, or downsizers opting for home, home improvements and new developments with an emphasis After the keyword search ‘study’, renovations have become a high on space, greenery and light. ‘outdoor’ had the second-highest priority for many Australian year-on-year growth in the second homeowners. Beyond being house proud, the way half of 2020*. we live in our homes now is about For many, the prolonged impact that The experience of the last 18-months creating a feeling of health and staying inside had on our physical will no doubt have a lasting impact happiness through ample space and and mental wellbeing, meant that on us and our homes. Many are light. people increasingly prioritised rethinking the kind of life they want natural light and access to nature. to live post-pandemic, as well as the Now more than ever, we’re looking role their homes play in this. One for homes that don’t just look good The pandemic gave us a heightened thing is certain, our homes are – but homes that genuinely feel good appreciation for the natural world. looking lighter, brighter and more to be in. So, what makes a home Whether through a backyard, balcony, spacious than ever before. feel good? Generous proportions, rooftop, or even parks and green natural light, good ventilation, good spaces, the best cure for cabin fever acoustic insulation, stable thermal is the great outdoors. *Source: Domain, RealEstate.com.au J ellis Craig - The Repo r t 9
Infrastructure and local insights The North East continues to thrive as an idyllic family destination, with investment in road and rail infrastructure and a program of parks and recreation regeneration set to further boost property market performance and liveability. Major transport projects will soon The $11 billion Metro Tunnel will cut government zones attracting transform the way people live up to 10 minutes off rail journeys to premiums. Macleod College, Charles and commute in the North East, Parkville and around five minutes to La Trobe P-12 College, Viewbank reducing congestion and enhancing St Kilda Rd, with a new underground College, Thornbury High School and connectivity across the region. station proposed at Heidelberg as part Ivanhoe Grammar have all undertaken of the $50 billion Suburban Rail Loop. recent major redevelopments, adding Victoria’s largest ever road project, to the strong educational choices North East Link, will significantly Construction on a new residential available in the region. reduce travel times to the city and development at the Bellfield Project take 15,000 trucks off local roads will start in 2022, further revitalising The North East’s enduring appeal each day when it opens in 2027. the former Banksia La Trobe to families will also be intensified Secondary College site. The council with major community sporting The project is also responsible for has already started its impressive facility upgrades. Diamond Creek upgrading many local parks and $11.70 million community hub, Netball Courts will be resurfaced and amenities in the area, such as Ford which will be home to a range of upgraded as part of a $2.16 million Park in Bellfield, Binnak Park in services, plus a community garden investment, while $1.6 million will Watsonia North, and the Koornung and a social enterprise cafe. be spent improving the Eltham Lower Creek reserve in Bulleen. Park front oval, Bridge Street Reserve, Nillumbik Council has finished the Hurstbridge East Oval, Diamond Hills Plans are taking shape for the first stage of the Diamond Valley Trail Reserve in Greensborough, and the Hurstbridge Line redevelopment, extension. When complete, the 55km Diamond Creek Netball Courts. which will duplicate around 3km of trail will run from Hurstbridge to the track between new stations at CBD, linking with the Main Yarra Trail This strong infrastructure and at Eltham. development investment continues Greensborough and Montmorency, to drive fresh interest and demand and 1.5km between Diamond Creek The Fitzsimons Lane intersection in the North East, ensuring the local and Wattle Glen. When completed upgrade is now underway, which will property market is perfectly placed next year, the duplication will improve help relieve traffic congestion when for continued growth. reliability and enable trains every seven completed in August 2022. minutes from Greensborough, and Schools in the North East continue to every 10 minutes from Montmorency draw buyers and strong competition, and Eltham in the morning peak. with homes in sought-after 10 In f r a s t r u c t ure a nd l oc a l i n si g hts
Awareness. Support. Impact The Jellis Craig Foundation A dedication to active community As with everything we do at Jellis Each office will have the opportunity service has been central to the culture Craig, we’re looking forward to what to volunteer with The Big Umbrella by here at Jellis Craig since our inception. is next for the Foundation. creating and distributing meals. This commitment to giving back to the community was formalised through We are delighted to be continuing the establishment of the Jellis Craig our relationship with Headspace. Foundation in 2013. Since then, the Our donations allow Headspace to Foundation’s reach has been felt far continue to run critical programs for and wide, having made a significant young people experiencing mental ill impact on communities both locally health. Over the next 12 months, the and internationally. partnership will also fund education projects for young people, as well as a mentor program that will see our employees matched to youths suffering with mental ill health. Introduced in 2019, the Community Contribution Fund allows each of our offices to apply for a grant from the Foundation to fund a local community A particularly exciting development In the eight years since its inception, project that will make a positive impact for the Foundation is our new the Foundation has raised over $1.6 in their area. partnership with The Resilience Project, million and worked with four key which provides evidence-based partners (Headspace, Very Special practical wellbeing strategies to build Kids, Hands Across the Water, resilience through its emotionally Breast Cancer Network Australia) engaging programs. Through our and several other beneficiaries. partnership with The Resilience Project, Jellis Craig will fund mental Achieving this has been a collective health and resilience education effort by all our staff, our leaders programs in up to six primary and across the network and our board. In a Foundation first, we are delighted secondary schools within our office Together, we have proven that to be supporting The Big Umbrella network areas each year. through hard work, local office efforts, this year. The Big Umbrella is a charity a generous income model from our that provides meals for vulnerable The achievements of the Foundation property sales, and getting behind Australians experiencing homelessness, thus far encourage us to reflect and important charities and projects, we and as such it is very close to our hearts. celebrate what we have achieved can make a huge impact. already, and to look forward to what we can continue to achieve together. The J ellis Craig Fou ndatio n 11
North East in numbers S C AN TO S EE H OW YOUR S U B U RB C OMPAR ES Median Property Prices HOUSE TOWNHOUSE UNIT B AN Y U LE D A R E BIN BELLFIELD ALPHINGTON BRIAR HILL BUNDOORA EAGLEMONT FAIRFIELD HEIDELBERG MACLEOD HEIDELBERG HEIGHTS THORNBURY IVANHOE IVANHOE EAST $0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 LOWER PLENTY MONTMORENCY ROSANNA ST HELENA VIEWBANK WATSONIA WATSONIA NORTH YALLAMBIE $0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 Feature Property NI LLUM BI K This divine family home in a prestigious street in Eltham sold for $3,300,000 in May this year. ARTHURS CREEK BEND OF ISLANDS CHRISTMAS HILLS COTTLES BRIDGE DIAMOND CREEK DOREEN ELTHAM ELTHAM NORTH GREENSBOROUGH HURSTBRIDGE KANGAROO GROUND NORTH WARRANDYTE PANTON HILL PLENTY RESEARCH SMITHS GULLY ST ANDREWS WATTLE GLEN YARRAMBAT 37 Lavender Park $0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 ELTHAM 12 N o r t h E a s t i n numb e rs Source: Property Data Online sold results Aug 1 '20 - July 31 '21
Exceptional Sold Property S C AN FOR MOR E S O L D PR OPER TIES 31a Beaconsfield Rd BRIAR HILL 14 Marino Way 14 Redesdale Road DIAMOND CREEK $1,670,000 IVANHOE $3,000,000 20B Outlook Drive 42 Osborne Road EAGLEMONT $2,725,000 NORTH WARRANDYTE $1,810,125 The Repor t 20 21 13
@jelliscraig Facebook – Instagram jelliscraig.com.au Eltham | Greensborough | Ivanhoe | Rosanna ‘The Report’ has been prepared by Jellis Craig in good faith, as a general guide to the performance and outlook for particular areas of the Victorian real estate market. The data and information provided in ‘The Report’ is provided by third parties for information purposes only and does not constitute advice or recommendations. It does not intend to predict future performance of particular suburbs, areas, properties or property types. You should consider your personal circumstances and obtain independent professional advice before making any financial or investment decisions.
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