COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CONFERENCE - 2019 CCIM "Evolving Trends in CRE: Can It Be Different This Time?" - Florida CCIM ...
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2019 CCIM
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Coral Gables Country Club
“Evolving Trends in CRE:
Can It Be Different This Time?”
WELCOME FROM OUR SPONSORS
Grand Sponsor
Platinum Sponsor
Gold Sponsors
Silver Sponsors
Bronze Sponsors
Florida CCIM Chapter
Miami-Dade/Monroe District
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference
Table of Contents
Today’s Program 5
Speakers’ Biographies 6, 7, 8
Panel Speakers - Development Trends / Opportunity Zones 9
2019 CCIM Florida Chapter Education Schedule 11
CCIM Miami-Dade/Monroe District Board 13
CCIM Course Scholarship Program 16
CCIM Miami-Dade/Monroe District Membership 18, 19, 20
Important PPT Slides
2019 Economic Forecast – K.C. Conway 24
Industrial Market – Stephanie A. Rodriguez 26
Retail Market – Josh Rodstein 28
Capital Market – Andrea Molina 30
Multifamily Market – Calum Weaver 32
Office Market – Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBA 34
3 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 4
2019 CCIM Commercial Real Estate
Outlook Conference Program
Mitash Kripalani, CCIM, President of Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Registration
Colliers International South Florida, LLC
Buffet Breakfast Coral Gables Country Club
Presentation of Colors
Pledge of Allegiance Coral Gables High School JROTC Cadets
National Anthem
Welcome Announcements Maria Agon McCarthy, CCIM, Vice President CCIM Miami District, Comreal
Sponsor Recognition Mitash Kripalani, CCIM, President of Miami-Dade / Monroe District, Colliers
International South Florida, LLC
Grand Sponsor Welcome Gary Fitzgerald EVP , City National Bank
Platinum Sponsor Welcome Bill Papagno, Hunt Companies
Host Introductions Stephen Rigl, CCIM, Immediate Past President, Binswanger-Gateway Partnership
Introduction of Keynote Speaker Eddie Blanton, CCIM, President Elect for CCIM Institute (National) - Tradd
Commercial, Charlotte, NC
K.C. Conway, MAI, CRE, CCIM Institute Chief Economist and
2019 Economy Forecast Director of Research and Corporate Engagement at the Alabama Center for Real
Estate (ACRE)
Industrial Market Stephanie Rodriguez, Duke Realty
Retail Market Josh Rodstein, NAI Miami
BREAK Networking
Capital Market Andrea Molina, Aztec Group
Multifamily Market Calum Weaver, Cushman & Wakefield
Office Market Maria Juncadella, Fairchild Partners
BREAK Networking
Panel Discussion Louis P. Archambault, Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr LLP , Moderator
New Development Trends Kobi Karp, KOBI KARP Architecture & Interior Design
in Miami Gerard Yetming , Colliers International
Ryan Shear, Property Markets Group
Opportunity Zones Adam Yormack, Escalante Yormack Law
Mitash Kripalani, CCIM, President of Miami-Dade / Monroe District,
Closing Remarks/Raffle Colliers International South Florida, LLC
Malbelys Gonzalez, CCIM Miami District Secretary, BGI Capital
5 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
Stephen R. Rigl, CCIM, SIOR
Host
Stephen R. Rigl, SIOR, CCIM is Senior Director at Binswanger-Gateway Partnership and has
been active in the commercial real estate industry since 1984. He is currently Vice President of
Finance for the Florida CCIM Chapter and immediate past president of Miami Dade/Monroe
CCIM district. Mr. Rigl is the chair of the 2019 CCIM Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Conference and was for the 2018 Outlook Conference as well.
His real estate career experience includes numerous office lease transactions on behalf of both
property owners and tenants, investment property sales and purchases for clients including
industrial and multifamily properties, as well has holding ownership interests in various real estate projects.
In addition to holding the CCIM designation, Mr. Rigl holds the SIOR designation from the Society of Industrial
and Office Realtors. He is currently serving on the Board of Governors for Miami Commercial, the commercial
real estate section of the Miami Association of Realtors and is a mentor for the Florida International University
Alumni Association.
Mitash Kripalani, CCIM
Co-Host
An active commercial real estate professional and vice president of Colliers International
South Florida, Mitash Kripalani, CCIM serves as the 2019 President of the Miami Dade/
Monroe District of the Florida CCIM Chapter. Kripalani has been a member of the CCIM
chapter since 2014 and has been actively involved on the Board, also previously serving as
Education Chairman for the Miami Dade district.
As a Vice President in the Miami office of Colliers International South Florida. A key member
of Colliers International South Florida’s capital markets team, Kripalani brings more than
a decade of industry experience. At Colliers, his team services the core South Florida markets, specializing in
capital markets with a focus on multifamily, land deals and investment sales.
K.C. Conway, MAI, CRE
2019 Economy Forecast
CCIM Institute Chief Economist Kiernan “K.C.” Conway is the director of research and
corporate engagement at the Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) housed within the
University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce. Conway is a frequent speaker for
the Federal Reserve, FDIC, FHLB, state bank commissioners, academic groups, professional
organizations, and industry associations. He previously served as chief economist for Colliers
International – US. In addition to being a frequent lecturer at international conferences,
Conway has consulted with major governmental agencies, most notably briefing former
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Board of Governors on the burgeoning subprime lending and
housing crisis and its impact on the commercial real estate industry.
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 6
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
Stephanie A. Rodriguez
Industrial Market
As Vice President of Leasing, Stephanie is responsible for leasing 7.5 million square feet of
industrial properties in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. Prior to her current
position, Stephanie spent three years as Vice President of Asset Management and Customer
Service, responsible for the overall operation of the company’s entire South Florida portfolio,
including asset management, supervision of personnel, communication, and client retention
functions.
Prior to joining Duke Realty, Stephanie was Real Estate Manager and Associate Director for CB
Richard Ellis and Property Manager for Trammell Crow, Glenborough Realty Trust, and Washington Real Estate
Investment Trust.
Josh Rodstein
Retail Market
Josh has over 30 years of experience in commercial real estate. His areas of concentration
is multi-fold; he specializes in the leasing, sales, and development of retail and office
properties. Representing local and national property owners as their Landlord representative
or representing national or regional tenants as their exclusive broker selecting new locations
is the basis of Josh’s commercial real estate experience. He has been involved in the sale of
developed retail properties and office buildings, as well as, been involved with over 2,000,000
square feet of commercial transactions.
Andrea Molina
Capital Market
Andrea Molina is a Director at Aztec Group, a boutique firm specializing in Investment
Banking for the Real Estate industry. Molina works closely with her clients to provide
strategic capital solutions for acquisitions, redevelopment, construction, refinance, joint
ventures, and programmatic partnerships. Molina brings over a decade of commercial real
estate experience to the Aztec Group team. Her clients include emerging sponsors of private
real estate as well as well-seasoned owner/operator/developer teams seeking recapitalization
and access to programmatic capital.
Ms. Molina most recently served as a Director at a major South Florida based institution with a portfolio in
excess of $1 billion where she was responsible for leading all financing and equity executions, as well as portfolio
oversight including acquisitions, dispositions, and recapitalization initiatives. Prior to that, Molina was a Senior
Analyst with CBRE’s National Retail Partners team based in Miami, where she underwrote the investment sale of
over 60 commercial properties, ranging in transaction size from $6 million to $425 million.
The PowerPoints from today’s presentations will be available
on the CCIM Miami-Dade/Monroe District website at
www.flccim.com on Monday morning.
7 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
Calum Weaver
Multifamily Market
Calum is an Executive Managing Director for Cushman & Wakefield’s Multifamily Group in
Florida. He leads the firms private capital group which is a team dedicated to serving the needs
of private capital investors throughout South Florida. Calum has sold over 120 apartment
properties totalling over $1 billion on behalf of his clients. Transaction experience includes
all multifamily asset classes, tax-exempt bond deals, fractured condominiums, and land sales.
Calum is part of a 15 person team that provides a fully integrated platform for selling and
financing multifamily properties. Based in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, the Cushman &
Wakefield team has completed in excess of $20 billion in transactions, representing over 900 apartment buildings
and 250,000 units throughout South Florida. The Cushman & Wakefield Multifamily team is consistently ranked
#1 in multifamily sales in South Florida.
Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBA
Office Market
Maria Juncadella is Managing Principal of Fairchild Partners, one of South Florida’s top-
rated commercial real estate firms. As co-qualifying broker, she has been involved in all
aspects of management and brokerage activities since 2005 when she and her husband,
Jose I. Juncadella, founded the firm. As a real estate advisor, Maria specializes in the sale and
leasing of commercial properties in Miami-Dade’s most active submarkets.
In 2016, Maria spearheaded over ten million dollars in lease transactions, accounting for
74,000 of the 600,000 sq. ft. Downtown Doral office park. She participated in the broker
team that achieved a record sale price on a two-acre parcel in Miami’s Edgewater district. As lead broker at five-
building Kendall Summit, she has leased 174,000 sq. ft. and achieved a 33% rate increase during the three years
Fairchild has had the listing. In 2015, Maria had an active role in Baptist Health South Florida’s land purchase for
a build-to-suit distribution center.
Maria is actively involved in multiple office and medical office lease transactions in Coconut Grove, Coral Gables,
South Miami, Kendall and Doral. She represents several new-to-market retail tenants.
Maria was 2016 President of the Realtors Commercial Alliance (RCA Miami); its membership reached 2,000-
plus commercial agents under her leadership. She has served on the Miami Association of Realtors’ Board of
Governors since 2013.
5 DRAWINGS!!!
At the conclusion of today’s conference, there will be five drawings to give away:
FIVE $100 Gift Cards You must be present to win!
GOOD LUCK!!!
(Speakers, vendors and members of the CCIM Miami Board of Directors are not eligible.)
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 8
PANEL DISCUSSION
NEW DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
IN MIAMI
Louis P. Archambault Kobi Karp Gerald Yetming Ryan Shear
Saul Ewing Arnstein & KOBI KARP Colliers Property Markets
Lehr LLP Architecture & International Group
Moderator Interior Design
OPPORTUNITY ZONES
The Opportunity Zones program provides a tax incentive for investors to re-invest their
unrealized captial gains in Opportunity Funds that are dedicated to investing into Opportunity
Zones. About 8,700 Opportunity Zones have been indentified throughout the country.
Adam Yormak
Partner
Escalante Yormack Law
9 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 102019 Education Schedule
Dates Class District Location
Jan. 15-18 CI-101 Southwest Naples
Feb. 11-14 CI-102 West Tampa
Feb. 25-29 CI-103 Central Orlando
Mar. 11-14 CI-104 Broward NSU
Mar. 18-21 CI-101 Panhandle Pensacola
Apr. 15-18 CI-101 West Tampa
May 6-9 CI-101 Miami-Dade Miami
Jun. 3-6 CI-104 Southwest Naples
Sept. 9-12 CI-103 East Palm Beach
Oct. 7-10 CI-102 Central Orlando
Oct. 22-25 CI-104 West Tampa
Nov. 4-7 CI-103 Miami-Dade Miami
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 12Florida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
2019 Board of Directors
Mitash Kripalani Maria Agon McCarthy Malbelys Gonzalez Michael D Hinton Stephen R. Rigl
CCIM CCIM MSIRE CCIM CCIM
President Vice President Secretary Treasurer Past President
Colliers International ComReal Miami-Gables, LLC. BGI Capital Apex Capital Realty Binswanger-Gareway
South Florida, LLC 305.775.0982 786.496.5685 305.970.0262 Partnership
786.271.5598 magonmccarthy@comreal.com mgonzalez@bgicg.com michael@apexcapitalrealty.com 305.546.6933
Mitash.kripalani@colliers.com srigl@gatewaycoc.com
Louis P. Archambault, Esq. Jorge Napoles, CCIM Edward Schmidt, CCIM
Arnstein & Lehr, LLP Sperry Commercial Global Affiliates NAI Miami
305.428.4510 786.258.3127 786.260.0401
lpa@arnstein.com jorge.napoles@sperrycga.com eschmidt@naimiami.com
Ed L. Boen, CCIM Andres Navarrete Jose Maria Serrano, CCIM
Kerdyk Real Estate Aboslut Financial Resources New Miami Realty
305.799.6693 786.439.8921 305.635.5000
EdLBoen@gmail.com Andy@absolutfinancial.com jserrano@newmiamirealty.com
John Dohm, CCIM Omar Ojeda Doris Suttin
Infinity Commercial Real Estate/ Professional Bank doris b. suttin realty, inc.
Florida Transatlantic Holdings, LLC. 786.483.1742 305.308.7061
954.557.3646 oojeda@professionalbankfl.com DBSuttin98@gmail.com
john@jdohm.com
Elias G. Patsalos, CCIM Yulia Vargas
Isabel Fine, CCIM
Casal Group VETA Group | AG Commercial
Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC
305.804.9154 Real Estate Advisors
305.785.4758
epatsalos@casal.com 786.780.3344
isabel@realmiamicommercial.com
yulia@veta.group
Simona Kogan Carlos Rodriguez Jr. Paul L. White, CCIM
Finite Real Estate Corporation Waronker & Rosen, Inc. KW Commercial
954.647.0910 786.449.4670 305.270.0710
simona@finiterealestate.com crodriguezjr@outlook.com paulwhite@plwa.biz
Jonathan C. Lay CCIM, MSIRE, MSF Frank Rodriguez Melo, CCIM Joshua Young, Esq.
Fairchild Partners / Commercial Cedano Real Estate Raisal
Real Estate Services 305.814.0137 305.505.5079
786.390.5927 melo@cedanocre.com josh@raisal.com
jlay@fairchildpartners.com
John C. Lonardo, CCIM Rafael Romero, CCIM Danny Zelonker
ComReal Miami - Gables, LLC JLL Real Miami Commercial Real Estate
305.213.4050 305.767.5294 305.542.0189
jlonardo@comreal.com rromerore@gmail.com danny@realmiamicommercial.com
Maruta (Marti) Mang, SVP Britt J. Rosen, CCIM
City National Bank Brittex Appraisal Services, Inc.
305.476.6272 305.663.7334
Maruta.Mang@citynational.com britt@brittexusa.com
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2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 14The Power of
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15 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceCCIM Core Course Scholarship Program
FLORIDA CCIM CHAPTER
The Florida CCIM Chapter believes strongly in the value of the CCIM designation.
Granting scholarships assists those qualified to start, or continue the CCIM program.
The CCIM Florida Chapter and Miami-Dade/Monroe District offers the following
scholarships for any CI Core Course, CI101, CI102, CI103, CI104, and may be
attended at any location in Florida or the U.S.
1. CCIM Education Foundation Scholarship – Paul L. White Endowed Scholarship:
$1,000, one per year
2. Florida Chapter Course Scholarship: $1,000, one per year
3. Bob Ward Scholarship: $1,000 for any CI Core Course, one per year
4. Cynthia Shelton Scholarship: $1,000 for CI103 only, one per year
5. Miami-Dade/Monroe District Scholarship: $500 each, three per year
The Florida Chapter and its District Award Scholarships to high caliber, qualified
individuals in the commercial real estate profession who:
A. Will benefit from the CCIM education
B. Are active members of the State Chapter (through the District)
C. Will continue the CCIM education which will give them most of the requirements
needed to achieve the prestigious CCIM designation.
Go to CCIM.COM to see the 2019 course descriptions and scheduled offerings
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT:
John C. Lonardo, CCIM
305.213.4050 or e-mail at: jlonardo@comreal.com
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 16www.gtlaw.com
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17 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceFlorida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Membership List
Display Name Company City
Maria Agon McCarthy, CCIM ComReal Miami-Gables, LLC. Coral Gables
Mark Alexander, CCIM Medical Office Brokerage Miami
Rolando Alvarez, CCIM Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Coral Gables
David Amiel, CCIM Invest Capital Group Aventura
Juan V. Antunez, CCIM The Keyes Company Miami
Clara E. Arango ACE International Realty Miami
Louis Paul Archambault Saul, Ewing, Arnstein & Lehr, LLP Miami
Kenneth Baboun BGI Capital Miami
David G. Baitinger Apex Capital Real Estate, LLC Hialeah
Kirenia Balan Balan Realty, Inc. Miami
Justin Barth Windsor Realty Partners Miami
Robert Barthelmess BGI Capital Miami
Lisette Beraja Magasi, LLC Miami
Thomas J. Blazejack, CCIM, MAI Blazejack & Company Pinecrest
Ed L. Boen, CCIM Kerdyk Real Estate Coral Gables
Bette Brown Centerstate Bank, NA Homestead
Brian T. Carter Douglas Elliman Commercial Miami
Henry Castelo Keller Williams Realty Miami
Lea Cerdido, CMP Corevents Coral Gables
Jose Cestero Valbridge Property Advisors Coral Gables
Jacqueline Cruz-Bustillo TotalBank Miami
Salvatore J. Davide Davide Realty, Inc. Miami
Ariel O. Diaz Trajan Investments, Inc. Miami
Carlos A. Diez, MAI, CCIM Capstone Valuation Advisors Miami
John Dohm, SIOR, CCIM Infinity Commercial Real Estate Miami Lakes
Connie Doumenis, CCIM MRG Commercial Group Miami
Agustin Duarte, CCIM RE/MAX 360 Real Estate Coral Gables
Kent Ducote, CCIM Truman & Co Key West
Aran Dunlop NAI Miami Miami
Frank Fernandez CenterState Bank Homestead
Jorge Fernandez-Pla, CCIM KW Commercial Miami
Isabel Fine, CCIM Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Coral Gables
Eugene Font Apollo Bank Miami
Augusto J. Fonte, CCIM AJF Properties, Inc. Coral Gables
Jim Fried Sandstone Realty Advisors Miami
Jose Garcia KW Coral Gables - Coconut Grove Miami Lakes
Stephen E. Gaunt, CCIM JLL Miami
Eduardo Gesio FBDC Miami
Sandra Goldstein, CCIM Sandra Goldstein Commercial Real Estate Miami
Vladimir F. Golik, CCIM Keller Williams Realty Premier Properties Miami
Rodrigo E. Gomez AG Real Estate Advisors, LLC Miami
Luis Gonzalez CenterState Bank Homestead
Malbelys Gonzalez BGI Capital Miami
Michelle Gonzalez Floridian First Realty Coral Gables
Roberto Gonzalez Gonzalez and Partners CPAs, LLC Coral Gables
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 18Florida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Membership List
Winston Grace Brokers Real Estate Investment Management Aventura
Laura Graves BrokerNation RE North Miami
Daniel Heisler, CCIM, CPM Adler Realty Services Miami
Douglas Hill American Caribbean Real Estate Key Largo
Michael Hinton, CCIM Apex Capital Realty Miami
Manuel Huerta Bear Finance, LLC Coral Gables
Juan Huice Primetime Realty Group, Inc. Miami Lakes
Elias Jabech Keller Williams Commercial Miami
Doris B. Suttin Doris B. Suttin Realty, Inc. North Miami Beach
Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM Fairchild Partners, Inc. Coral Gables
Laura Kefalidis Realty World Executive | Commercial Division Miami
Simona Kogan Finite Real Estate Corporation North Miami
Ronald Kohn, CCIM Kohn Commercial Real Estate, Inc. Miami
Pierre Kopec Archipelago Properties Doral
Matthew Kramer Weinberg Wheeler Miami
Mitash Kripalani, CCIM Colliers International Miami
Jeremy S. Larkin NAI Miami Miami
Gregory J. Laskody, CCIM DISTRICT Realty Advisors Miami
Jonathan Lay, CCIM Fairchild Partners Coral Gables
Krystelle Lay, CCIM Ten-X Miami
Diego Leiva KW Commercial Coral Gables
Neal J. Lipner Miami
LaWanda Loftus First Citizens Bank Coral Gables
John C. Lonardo, CCIM ComReal Miami-Gables, LLC. Coral Gables
Marti Mang TotalBank Miami
Juan M Martinez Metro Consulting & Management, Inc. Miami
Thomas C. Marvin, CCIM Tremont Properties, LLC Miami
John McNally McNally Environmental Law Miami
Steve J. Medwin, SIOR, CCIM Newmark Knight Frank Miami
Louis R. Melara, CCIM Keyes Company/Realtors Homestead
Niko Micin, CCIM AGM Net Lease Miami Beach
Lisa Miller Keller Williams Elite Properties Aventura
Francisca Miranda Keller Williams Coral Gables
Andrea Montejo, CCIM Flagler Global Logistics Coral Gables
Alex Morcate Colliers International Miami
W. Allen Morris, CCIM, SIOR The Allen Morris Company Coral Gables
Andreina Moyssidis Keller Williams Realty Premier Properties Miami
Jorge Napoles, CCIM Sperry Commercial Global Affiliates Miami
Marc A. Napolitano, CCIM Napolitano Commercial Properties Miami
Andres Navarrete Absolut Financial Resources Miami
Michael Navarro MMG Equity Partners Pinecrest
Patricia A. Nooney, SIOR, CCIM CBRE, Inc. Miami
JM Padron, CCIM RE/MAX Commercial Associates Weston
Thomas Panos P.A. Panago CRE Group / The Keyes Company Homestead
Elias G. Patsalos, CCIM Casal Group Miami
Manuel Perez The Keyes Company Coral Gables
19 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceFlorida CCIM Miami-Dade / Monroe District
Membership List
Ed Perez-Heydrich, CCIM Portfolio Real Estate Services Coral Gables
Christian Perlini Total Real Estate Consultants, Inc. Coral Springs
John Perrone Legacy Realty Services, LLC Coral Springs
John L. Petricola, CCIM Rockefeller Group Development Corp. Miami
Wendy Pierre, CCIM BAWONS Properties, Inc. Miami
Billy Planes, CCIM RE/MAX 360 Real Estate Coral Gables
Alejandro Puente ACP Appraisals, LLC Miami
Tony Puente, CCIM Fairchild Partners, Inc Coral Gables
Patricia Quintana, CCIM Comreal Miami, Inc. Doral
Roza H. Radkiewicz Astor Companies Coral Gables
Karen Reiter Keller Williams Elite Properties Aventura
David Restainer, CCIM Douglas Elliman Commercial Real Estate Miami
Albert D. Rey, CCIM Miami
Stephen R. Rigl, SIOR, CCIM Binswanger-Gateway Partnership South Miami
Carlos A. Rodriguez, Jr. Waronker and Rosen, Inc. Miami
Grace C. Rodriguez, PA AB Realty, LLC Miramar
Frank Rodriguez Melo, CCIM Cedano Realty Advisors Miami
Britt J. Rosen, CCIM Brittex Appraisal Services, Inc. Miami
Matthew O. Rotolante, CCIM, SIOR Lee & Associates Miami Miami
Daniel Salcedo, CCIM CRE Global Miami
Kevin Joseph Sanz, CCIM Orion Investment & Management Miami
Edward Schmidt, CCIM NAI Miami Miami
Jose Serrano, CCIM New Miami Realty Corp. Miami
Keiti Silva Optimar International Realty Miami
Paul Silverstein, P.A. Florida Commercial Team LLC Miami
Arnaud Sitbon, CCIM ESJ Asset Management Aventura
Paul Skoric, CCIM Soundvest Properties, Inc. Miami
Claudia Splinter Trajan Commercial Real Estate Brickell
Everett Stonebraker Steinbauer Associates, Inc. Miami
Chris Suarez Lincoln Property Company Miami
George Theodore, PhD Address Real Estate, LLC Miami
Otto Travieso, CCIM Real Capital Partners LLC Miami
Donald Trombly Risk Strategies Miami
Victor Vargas CorEvents, Inc. / Brittex Appraisal Services, Inc. Miami
Yulia Vargas VETA Group of AG Advisors Sunny Isles Beach
Paul L. White, CCIM CPM CSM RPA KW Commercial Miami
Mark Wohl Tiktin Real Estate Investment Services North Miami Beach
Jennifer Wollmann EWM Realty International, Inc. Coral Gables
Milena Wood Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Coral Gables
Joshua Young Raisal Coral Gables
Nicolas Zelaya Key Biscayne
Danny Zelonker, SIOR, CCIM Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Coral Gables
Gabriel Zelonker, CCIM Real Miami Commercial Real Estate, LLC Miami
Jay Ziv, CCIM Avison Young Miami
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 20CLASS-A WAREHOUSE
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21 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 22
23 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference
2019 Economic Outlook by K.C. Conway
Main PowerPoints
4 Fed Rate Hikes, Gov. Shutdown, Tariffs, etc.
Yogi Berra had a Quote to put Anything in Perspective.
2
Forget the “r” word for 2019 … but
Get used to the “v” word (Volatility)
Just when things were
going so well,
“V” remerged.
What lies ahead?
3
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 242019 Economic Outlook by K.C. Conway
Main PowerPoints
The Big Story will be in
Logistics & Industrial R.E.
4
Jobs & Workforce: LinkedIn MSA-level Skills Analyses
Amazon HQ2 Issue:
Is Amazon going to pick a
HQ2 where it starts out
with a Skills Gap?
KC forecast is a Co-
working/WeWork option
for Amazon HQ2 5
25 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceIndustrial Market by Stephanie A. Rodriguez
Main PowerPoints
SOUTH FLORIDA INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
MARKET SIZE
Palm Beach 62.7M
Broward 132M
Miami-Dade 245M
TOTAL SFL 439M SF
*Source: CoStar 3Q 2018
MIAMI INDUSTRIAL MARKET STATISTICS
Submarket Inventory Direct Ave. YTD
(SF) Vacancy Asking Absorption Key Submarket Absorption
Rate (%) Rent 700,000
($/psf)
Airport/Doral 80,464,770 3.5% $10.84 194,653 600,000
Central Dade 3,291,044 2.5% $11.63 45,103 500,000
Hialeah 31,066,424 2.8% $8.70 166,908 400,000
S Central Miami 13,133,536 7.1% $22.32 (90,735) 300,000
Medley 35,417,833 5.2% $9.46 665,758 200,000
Miami Lakes 12,056,257 1.4% $8.62 171,183 100,000
N. Miami Beach 37,257,803 4.8% $9.07 (50,772) 0
E Miami 4,273,653 7% $17.19 (30,538) -100,000
S Dixie Hwy 8,910,257 2.6% $12.09 (56,714) -200,000
SW Dade 10,295,706 1.9% $12.26 (73,213) -300,000
W Miami 4,677,002 2.2% $15.49 (26,402) -400,000
Airport Medley/Hialeah N. Miami
MIAMI 242,828,846 3.8% $10.59 2,674,465 1Q 2Q 3Q
Source: CoStar 3Q 2018
2
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 26Industrial Market by Stephanie A. Rodriguez
Main PowerPoints
DEVELOPMENT – MIAMI-DADE INDUSTRIAL
• 3.1 million square feet under construction at
the end of 2018 Historical Deliveries & Net Absorption
• 2017 deliveries totaled 3.7 million square feet 4
• 2018 deliveries through 3Q totaled 3.1 million
3.5
square feet
• Submarkets with highest volume of 3
development are:
2.5
• Medley/Hialeah
Million SF
• Miami Lakes 2
• N. Central Dade 1.5
• Airport West/Doral
1
• Developers:
0.5
• Flagler
• ProLogis 0
• Bridge Development Partners -0.5
• Liberty Property Trust YE 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018
Period
• East Group
• Panattoni Net Absorption Deliveries
3
MARKET DRIVERS & TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2019
4
27 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceRetail Market by Josh Rodstein
Main PowerPoints
RETAIL IN MIAMI
LAST 12 MONTHS
INVENTORY (SF) 137 M
TOTAL SPACE NET ABSORBTION
DELIVERED (SF) IN SF
1.7 M 618 K
VACANCY RENT
RATE GROWTH
4.0% 2.9%
2019 CCIM OUTLOOK CONFERENCE SLIDE 2
RETAIL IN FORT LAUDERDALE
LAST 12 MONTHS
INVENTORY (SF) 108 M
TOTAL SPACE NET ABSORBTION
DELIVERED (SF) IN SF
864 K 245 K
VACANCY RENT
RATE GROWTH
3.9% 0.4%
2019 CCIM OUTLOOK CONFERENCE SLIDE 3
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 28Retail Market by Josh Rodstein
Main PowerPoints
RETAIL IN PALM BEACH
LAST 12 MONTHS
INVENTORY (SF) 80.5 M
TOTAL SPACE NET ABSORBTION
DELIVERED (SF) IN SF
182 K -354 K
VACANCY RENT
RATE GROWTH
4.6% 3.8%
2019 CCIM OUTLOOK CONFERENCE SLIDE 4
AVAILABILITY IN SOUTH FLORIDA
LAST 12 MONTHS
AVAILABILITY MIAMI FT. LAUDERDALE PALM BEACH NATIONAL INDEX
Market Rent/SF $38.50 $24.67 $27.29 $20.94
Vacancy Rate 4.0% 3.9% 4.6% 4.4%
Vacant SF 5.5 M 4.2 M 3.7 M 503 M
Availability Rate 5.5% 5.6% 6.4% 6.3%
Available SF 7.7 M 6.1 M 5.2 M 727 M
Sublet SF 177 K 98.5 K 105 K 25 M
Months on Market 8.4 9.1 8.9 10.7
2019 CCIM OUTLOOK CONFERENCE SLIDE 5
29 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceCapital Market by Andrea Molina
Main PowerPoints
Sources of Capital
Commercial Real
Estate Lending 101 On a scale of 1 to 10, respondents rated local and regional
banks as the most significant source of capital to the
commercial real estate sector at a 6.7
Investor (often a business entity):
-Purchases a property, leases out space and
collects rent from the businesses that
operate within the property.
-The investment is intended to be an
income-producing property.
Lender’s basic considerations:
-Loan’s collateral (i.e. the property itself)
-Creditworthiness of the entity (or
principals/owners), including three to five
years of financial statements and income
tax returns
-Financial ratios, such as the loan-to-value
ratio and the debt-service coverage ratio.
Source: Investopedia
Source: National Real Estate Investor
-Late-cycle sentiment offset by competition
Availability of -$4.17 trillion in CRE debt held by all lenders,
with 52.4% held by banks
Real Estate
-$266 billion of private investor “dry powder”
Capital targeting real estate
2018 vs. 2019 -Depth of capital pool vs. ability to draw on it
-Pattern of decelerating transaction volume
since 2015.
-Federal Reserve’s April 2018 Senior Loan
Officers’ survey showed, for the first time in
three years, an easing of credit standards on
commercial real estate
-Underwriting standards such as loan-to-cost
ratios and maturities holding steady.
-Larger loans for development projects, and
to expand the geography of construction
lending.
-Expectation of deregulation (Dodd-Frank)
Sources: PWC Emerging Trends in Real Estate Survey, Based on U.S. Respondents only; Fed Reserve; data firm Trepp LLC
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 30Capital Market by Andrea Molina
Main PowerPoints
Impact of Rising Interest Rates
Cap rates
How will rising interest rates impact each aspect of the CRE market?
expected to
rise –
mitigated by
flight to
quality
Negative
impact on
new
construction
financing
* Source: National Real Estate Investor
South Florida:
Average Cap Rate by Tier
Primary Market
Stability in 2019
CRE values – especially in top-tier markets –
are at all-time highs and cap rates are as
tight as ever
Late cycle compressed yields led investors to
secondary markets – 75 to 100 bp spread
Investment activity shifting back to Primary
Markets
Income stream coupled with high-quality
assets that will be best-positioned to go
through different economic cycles
* Source: Trepp LLC
31 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceMultifamily Market by Calum Weaver
Main PowerPoints
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 32Multifamily Market by Calum Weaver
Main PowerPoints
33 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferenceOffice Market by Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBA
Main PowerPoints
2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference 34Office Market by Maria G. Juncadella, SIOR, CCIM, MBA
Main PowerPoints
35 2019 Commercial Real Estate Outlook ConferencePresident & CEO Jorge Gonzalez
Business and Personal Banking Executive Mara Suarez
Chief Business Development Officer Chris Damian
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