The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise

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The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
The New Silk Road
The BRI Project

                    DEKRA Claims and Expertise B.V.

                    Maup Hoppzak
                    Huib Ort
                    Laurens Leppers
The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
Table of contents

1  Preface										3

2  Introduction									4

3  History of the Overland Silk Road							9

4  History of the Maritime Silk Road							12

5  The Six Corridors									15

6  The new Overland Silk Roads								16

7  The new Maritime Silk Roads								20

8  Financing of the BRI-project								25

9  Comparison of the various modalities 							                           27

10 The risks										28

11 The position of the European Union with regard to the BRI-project				  31

12 The advantages for the Netherlands							35

13 What are the critics afraid of?								36

14 Recent developments that may have a consequence on the BRI-project				 38

15 Liability aspects of synchromodal transport						43

16 Concluding remarks									45

17 References used									46

© 2019 – DEKRA Experts and ASA Legal Assist, both branches of DEKRA Claims and Expertise B.V.

All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the publisher.

This book is written in due care. The correctness of the content is partly due to information received from third parties. In case this information is not correct DEKRA Experts, ASA Legal Assist,
DEKRA Claims and Expertise B.V. and the authors cannot accept liability for this.

www.DEKRA.nl

                                                                                                                                                                                                      1
The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
2
The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
1        Preface

We have all grown up knowing off the term Silk Road. A term which makes us think of Marco Polo, rough
trade voyages and adventures. The last few years the term “New Silk Road” has made an appearance, and
because we think it is an important development for the insurance branch, we have done some research on
this subject. This resulted in a duo-presentation on October 16th, 2017, held in the “VNAB Kenniscentrum”
in Rotterdam. And following that presentation, we have decided to share our intel and knowledge with our
business connections in the transport world, a branch in which we as experts work with pleasure and deal
with the occasional hectic situations. We did this in the form of a booklet.

The information used to write this booklet, has been collected up until mid-October 2018. For a long
period of time, the amount of information about the BRI project given by the Dutch media was scarce. An
exception to this was for instance the article “De Nieuwe Zijderoute is een veelvraat” in the daily newspaper
AD on Saturday October 13th, 2018. Due to the scarcity of information on the subject, we hope you
appreciate our initiative to share this recently obtained knowledge with you.

November 2018

Maup Hoppzak, senior h&m surveyor, consultant and arbitrator
Huib Ort, senior cargo surveyor and Manager Marine
DEKRA Experts

Laurens Leppers, lawyer
ASA Legal Assist

DEKRA Claims and Expertise B.V.
Business Unit Marine
P.O. Box 85107
NL-3009 MC Rotterdam
+31 10 2077260

marine.experts.nl@dekra.com

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The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
2         Introduction                                                In the year 221 BC the country became an empire ruled by the
                                                                          emperor Qin Sui Huang. He built the famous mausoleum that
                                                                          was discovered in 1974 by three farmers and which was listed
    China is a country with a rich history. Its first documentations      on the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage site in 1987. This
    started 7,000 years ago.                                              mausoleum holds approx. 8.000 live-size terracotta sculptures of
                                                                          warriors, horses, chariots and weapons.
                                                                          Before this period, between 1,700 and 1,300 BC, the art of
                                                                          writing was invented and around 2,000 BC the art of moulding
                                                                          of bronze.
                                                                          In 605 AD the Emperors channel was built in order to connect
                                                                          the Capital Lyoyang with the Yangtsekiang river. A channel still
                                                                          in use to this day.
                                                                          In the period of 475 BC/1644 AD the famous Chinese Wall,
                                                                          length approx. 6,000 kilometres was built.

                                                                          In 1912 the last Emperor Xuantong, resigned at the age of six
                                                                          years and after a period of over 2,000 years, the Republic China
                                                                          was declared, with Sun Yat-sen as its president.

                                                                          In 1921 the Chinese Communist Party was established. In
                                                                          1925 a civil war between this party and the Nationalist Party
                                                                          started. This was the start of a bloody battle. Mao Zedong (1893
                                                                          – 1976) became popular as the communist leader during the
                                                                          “Long Communist March” in 1934/1935. A march of over 9,600
                                                                          kilometers in length, often through inhospitable terrain. Approx
                                                                          86,000 communists started the march and only about 7,000 of
                                                                          them finished. Amongst them was a large number of people
                                                                          who were, later in 1949, rewarded with high ranking positions
                                                                          (amongst others Deng Xiaoping).

                                                                          In 1946, after the Japanese invasion (1937-1945), the civil war
                                                                          started again. In 1949 the Red Army of Mao Zedong defeated
                                                                          the Nationalist Army of Chiang Kai-shek in the city of Nanjing
                                                                          and on October 1st, 1949, Mao Zedong declared the People’s
                                                                          Republic of China.

                                                                          A land-reforming campaign started immediately after in which
                                                                          poor farmers were given the land of rich owners, whom were
                                                                          branded as the “enemies of the people”.
    These two small sculptures prove that China’s culture, a long         The collectivism of the agriculture was a total disaster and
    time before our Christian era, was much richer than the               around 20 million Chinese citizens died, mainly due to famine.
    European culture.                                                     Furthermore, many farm-landowners were executed.

    The first sculpture is the Venus of Willendorf, one of the            In 1957 Mao introduced a new campaign: “The Great Leap
    highlights of the Natural History Museum of Vienna (Austria).         Forward”.
    In Europe, approx. 60 Venus sculptures were found. All of them        This caused a complete deterioration of the society. As a result,
    were rough and with big breasts, but lacked expression, feet,         the Soviet Union stopped their aid to China in 1960.
    hands and often they would not have arms.                             The famous Cultural Revolution(1966-1976), based on the
    The sculptures, made out of lime sandstone or mammoth ivory,          notorious “small Red Book” written by Mao, started in 1966 as
    are between 20,000 and 2,000 years old and no male figures            millions of Red Books were printed and distributed. This was
    were found.                                                           happening while Deng Xiaoping (1904-1997) started to become
                                                                          more and more important. China had still been completely cut
    The second sculpture is exhibited in the Shanghai Museum in           off from the rest of the world at this point and Deng Xiaoping
    Shanghai (China). It is the oldest male sculpture ever to be found.   was a big believer of strong relationships with other countries
    It dates back to the Longshan Culture and is approx. 2,600 years      like the former Soviet Union, the USA and other possible
    old. The material used, is jade and the sculpture is finished very    important trade partners.
    nicely, with facial expressions, arms, hands, feet etc.
                                                                          He summarized his reforms in the quote: “It is not important
    History and culture have played an important role in the New          that the cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice”, by which
    Silkroad project and are mentioned by the Chinese president Xi        he meant: the political system itself is not that important, what
    Jinping in almost all his speeches.                                   matters is that it results in the desired effects.

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The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
In 2001, China became a member of the World Trade
                                                                       Organization (WTO) and since December 1st, 2015, the Chinese
                                                                       Yuan is part of the SDR (Special Drawing Right), see paragraph 8.

                                                                       From 1992 the yearly growth of the Chinese Gross Domestic
                                                                       Product has been at an average of 10%, although this started to
                                                                       decrease in 2012 to a grow of around 5 to 7%.
                                                                       The “Open Door Politic” of Deng Xiaoping has clearly been
                                                                       successfully for China as recorded in the following table showing
                                                                       the growth of the share of China in the world import and export.

                                                                              Year            Import            Export
                                                                              2000              3%                4%
                                                                              2004              6%                6%
                                                                              2008             6,5%              8,5%
Deng Xiaoping                                                                 2012             9,5%              11%
                                                                              2014             10%               12%
    In Time May 1997, the question was asked
    “The next China Will Deng’s heirs turn Beijing
    into a superpower the world can love?”                             In 2017 the share of China in the world export was 12.8%, by
                                                                       which China became number one in the world ranking. Their
                                                                       share in the world import was 10.2%, earning them a second
Deng Xiaoping took power in 1977. This happened after the death        place in the world ranking.
of Mao in 1976 and the arrest of the famous “Gang of Four” that
occurred that year as well. The “Gang of Four” was a group of          The Chinese presidents Jiang Zemin (period 1993 – 2003) and
followers of the Cultural Revolution, including Mao’s widow Jiang      Hu Jintao have continued Deng’s inheritance.
Qing. Two members of the gang were sentenced to life in prison         On March 14th 2013, Xi Jinping (born 1953) was chosen to be
and the other two got a very long time in jail.                        the ninth president after Mao Zedong and as a result of that, he
It is assumed that the new Chinese leaders intervened just in time     became the tenth president of the People’s Republic of China.
as certain findings suggest that the “Gang of Four” was planning
a coup in the near future. They received help from the People’s
Militia of Shanghai, leaded by Wang Dongxing. Who in the end
turned out to become an important member of the Communist
Party.
Deng Xiaoping immediately introduced the so called “Open Door
Politic”, to promote trade with foreign countries.
This was the initiative that started the so called “New Silk Road”.

Party secretary general Hu Yaobang, became very popular as a
result of his support to the political reforms and freedom of press.
His death in 1989 resulted in the Tiananmen incident on June
4th, 1989. A peaceful protest of approx. one million students
and civilians on the largest square in the world, the “Square of
Heavenly Peace”(Tiananmen Square). The protest was put down
harshly by the army; the square was cleared with the aid of tanks,
resulting in approx. 2.000 (or more) deceased.
This happened after a first protest led by students on April 17th,
1989 turned into a bloody massacre, resulting in 1,500 to 3,000
deceased.

In 1990, the Chinese government started to partly privatize and/
or upgrade the efficiency of various state-owned companies. And        Xi Jinping
after 40 years, the Shanghai Stock Exchange was re-opened in
1990.
                                                                       In 2013 he announced that China had the intention to re-use the
In 1992, Deng Xiaoping declared the necessity of an acceleration       old Silk Road, for a project to be named:
of the economic developments (“Slow growth is not socialism”).
Fast growth more or less meant a reform to a veiled capitalism. In
July 1997 the former British colony Hong Kong was handed over          “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR)
to China and in December 1999 Portugal handed over Macao.

                                                                                                                                           5
The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
He introduced the OBOR project as an ambition to build strong                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           D - Geostrategic expansion, by improving relationship with
    relations with neighboring countries. According to him the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  former Soviet Republics and other East European countries,
    project consisted of two parts:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             including various Islamitic countries.

    -                 The economic Silk Road;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               E - Solving the need for energy; China is the world’s largest
    -                 The twenty first century maritime Silk Road.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              consumer and the biggest importer of energy. China and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Russia have already constructed various pipelines for this
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                purpose.
        The Belt and Road Initiative creates a global infrastructure network
        China uses, acquires and builds railroads, ports and pipelines
                Akureyri

                                                                                                 Arkhangelsk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The BRI-project is the most important state project and is being
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            controlled by:
                                                                     Klaipéda

                                        Rotterdam
                                        Antwerp
                                  London

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -   NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission)
                                      Dunkirk
                                  Le Havre

                Montoir-de-Bretagne                                                                                                                                                    Ulan B

                                                                    Venice                    Yuzhne                                                                                                                                                                                   Planned /
                                  Bilbao
                                                           Vado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Existing   under construction
                                                     Marseille                             Ambarli                                                                                                                                           Vladivostok
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rason                                              Railroads
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Chongjin
                                                Valencia
                                                                                    Piraeus
                                                    Cherchell                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oil pipeline
                            Tanger                                                                                                                                                                                                       Busan
                                                                Malta

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -   The Ministry of Foreign Affairs
                     Casablanca                                                               Ashdod                                                                                                                           yungang
                                                                                                              Baghdad                                                                                                                                                                        Gas pipeline
                                                                                           Suez
                                                                                                                                     Gwadar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Port
                                                                                                                                                                       Dhaka                                                Quanzhou
                                                                                                                                           Karachi                                                                    Guangzhou
                                                                                                                               Abu Dhabi                         Calcutta      Payra                 Beihai       Zhanjian
                                                                                                                                                                          Sittwe                                 Haikou                                                                      Silk Road Economic Belt
        Nouakchott                                                                                                                                                                Kyaukphyu             ntiane
          Ndiago                                                                                  Massawa
           Dak                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Maritime Silk Road

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            -   The Ministry of Trade
                                                                                                         Djibouti       Aden
                                           ko                                                                                                                                                   Laem Chabang
                                                                                             A
             Conakry
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sihanoukville
                                            Lagos
                                                                                                                                                       Colombo                                                                                                                               Economic Corridor
                                                                                                                                                                  Hambantota
                              Abijan                                                                                                                 Malé
                                          Lomé                                                                                                                                 K                     Kuantan
                                Aboadze Tema Kribi
                                                                                                                                                                                   Malacca                                                                                                   AIIB member states
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Singapore
                                           São Tomé
                                                           Libreville                                            Lamu
                                                                                Bujumbur                        Mombasa
                                                                                                               Bagamoyo                                                                       Jak
                                                                                                               Dar es Salam

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Overarching control is done by the State-Council, the most
                                                                                                                Mtwara                                                                                                                   Darwin

                                                                                                       Beira

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            important Chinese administrative body.
                                                       Walvis Bay

                                                                                                     Maputo

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Newcastle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       © merics, May 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Melbourne

    The project did not appear to come out of the blue. During a
    meeting in 2011, the Chinese minister Wen Jiabo had mentioned
    that China had already been investigating OBOR projects in
    2010. This meeting was with the Central and East European
    Countries (CEE Countries), made out of former communist
    states in Europe such as Poland, the Baltic States, Hungary,
    Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Albania, etc. Ukraine and Russia are
    both not permanent member states, but are regularly present at
    the meetings.
    In our opinion, based on the size of various projects, the OBOR
    idea must have been worked on in China way before 2010.
    The more or less failed BRI projects: Shanmei oil refinery
    project in Kyrgyzstan (2009) and the Kunming-Kyaukpu oil and
    gas piping project in Myanmar (2010), conform our suspicion.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Contribution to global growth.

    Both the name New Silk Road and “One Belt, One Road” are                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The next table compares the economic growth of China, with
    wrong.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the economic growth of the world, the USA and the EU:
    There are six corridors (belts) and at least six roads.
    Also the old Silk Road was not one road, but a number of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in %.
    different roads.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            World       China        USA         EU
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2013             3.5          7.8         1.7        -0.3
    China realized that the name OBOR did not cover the cargo and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2014             3.6          7.3         1.6         1.6
    changed the name to BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) in 2016.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2015             3.5          6.9         2.9        2.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2016             3.2          6.7         1.5         1.9
    The BRI project is the official Chinese politics that pursues five                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2017             3.8          6.8         2.3        2.8
    targets:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2018             3.9          6.6         4.2        2.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (till Q3))

    A - Economic expansion, for the Chinese inland as well.

    B - Financial expansion and recognition of the Yuan as an                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The most important causes for the GDP growth in China are:
        international important currency, like the USD, GBP, Euro
        and Japanese Yen.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   - large scaled investments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            - Rapid grow of productivity
    C - Technological expansion, by development of new techniques,
        innovations and standardization.

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The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
Xi Jinping knows his classics. In the famous book “The Art of                The BRI-project is the most ambitious and expensive project
War” written in the sixth century BC by the Chinese general                  ever.
Sun Tzu it is mentioned:                                                     China invests 150 billion US Dollar each year and strives to
                                                                             complete the project in 2049 (the centenary of the People’s
“Everybody can notice the tactic of my victory, but nobody can               Republic of China).
notice the strategy behind this tactic”.
                                                                             The question is: Will this project, in which 65 states are
                                                                             involved, many of them political instable and 2/3 of them with
                                                                             enormous state debts, succeed and how much time will they
                                                                             actually need to complete the project?

                                                                             Is this really the economical reformation the traditional big
                                                                             players (the USA and Russia) have been waiting for? One of Sir
                                                                             Winston Churchill’s famous quotes was: “the price of greatness is
                                                                             responsibility”.

                                                                             We cannot answer these questions.
                                                                             But we can give you as much background information
                                                                             as possible, which makes it easier for you to follow the
                                                                             developments the upcoming few years.

                                                                             One thing is clear. The world is going through a time of
                                                                             transformation and turbulence, now more than ever. This is
                                                                             caused by the following five factors:

                                                                             -   Climate change.
Xi Jinping - Chinese President                                               -   Population growth.
                                                                             -   Shortage of raw materials.
    “The Belt and Road and the AIIB are both open initiatives. We welcome
                                                                             -   Rapid development of information technology.
    all countries along the routes and in Asia, as well as our friends and
    partners around the world, to take an active part in the endeavors”
                                                                                 “Information technology is a queer thing. It brings you great
                                                                                 gifts with one hand, and it stabs you in the back with the
                                                                                 other” C.P. Snow – New York Times – 15.03.1971)
See chapter 8 for an explanation regarding AIIB.                             -   Power shift from West to East.

In the following paragraphs we will deal with the following                  In China there are 1.4 billion consumers, just a little bit more
subjects:                                                                    than in India but over four times as much as in the USA.
                                                                             At this moment a rapidly growing middle class is emerging in
- The history of the Overland Silk Road and the Maritime Silk                China. Right now, seven of the ten largest ports are situated in
  Road.                                                                      China (this figure is based on total transshipment, containers,
                                                                             ore, oil products , etc.). Rotterdam, Singapore and Port Hedland
- The six corridors.                                                         are the only ports still maintaining a spot in the top ten.

- The new routes.                                                            It is clear that the current developments are of great importance
                                                                             for both China and the rest of the world and that Xi Jinping
- The BRI project, infrastructure projects.                                  has perfectly understood the importance of the quote of the
                                                                             Buddhist philosopher Lao-Tse: “a 1,000 miles journey starts with
- The financing of the BRI-project.                                          the first step”.

- The risks.                                                                 Taoism, developed in the fourth century BC by Lao-Tse, has an
                                                                             important role in the Chinese culture.
- The EU point of view.

- The advantages for the Netherlands.

- The fear of the critics.

- The various developments that may have consequences to the
  project.

- A juridical consideration with regard to synchromodal
  transport.

                                                                                                                                                 7
The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
China – country and population                        Remarks:

    Land area                             9,563,000 km²   1. After Russia (17,098,000 km²), Canada (9,985,000 km²) and
    Sea area                              4,730,000 km²      the USA (9,832,000 km²) China is the fourth largest country
                                                             in the world, land and area wise. India is the seventh country
    Mainland coastline                        18,000 km      with a total land area of 3,287,000 km².
    Islands coastline                         14,000 km
    Number of islands                          5,400      2. China has the largest population of the world. India, with a
                                                             population of 1.324 billion is second on this list. The third
    Population (2017)                   1,403 billion        place is for the USA with 0.322 billion.
    Life expectancy men (2017)              75 years
    Life expectancy women (2017)           78.1 years        It is to be expected that in 2030 India will have the largest
                                                             population (1.510 billion) in the world, pushing China to
    Time Zone                       GMT + 8 hours            second place (1.441 billion).
                              (summertime +9 hours)          The number of population in the largest country in the
                                                             world, Russia, was 0.144 billion in 2017. This made them
                                                             ninth on the list of largest populations in the world.

8
The New Silk Road The BRI Project - DEKRA Claims and Expertise
3         The History of the Overland Silk Road

The name Silk Road has been thought of more recent than many          The overland Silk Road was not just one route but was roughly
might think. The German geographer and explorer Ferdinand             made up out of three different routes.
von Richthofen came up with the name in 1877. He could have           - The eastern route from Changan to the Pamir mountains
easily named the route the Tea Road, Porcelain Road, Incense             (Tajikistan)
Road, Musk Road or the Satin Road, as those products were
also prominent in the trade on that route. But von Ferdinand          -   The central Asia route through the Pamir mountains to
Richthofen went with the name Silk Road.                                  Samarkand (Uzbekistan).

                                                                      -   The western route through Persia to the Mediterranean Sea.

                                                                      Important trading centers were Bactria and Samarkand. Both
                                                                      centers had congested shops, where the Chinese tradesman
                                                                      exchanged products with local tradesman.

                                                                      Often, there would be trades along the routes, making it
                                                                      common for the entire route to not always be travelled by the
                                                                      same convoy.

                                                                      The overland Silk Road, with its convoys of camels, sparked a
                                                                      booming trade and cultural exchange between East and West.
                                                                      From Changan (the current Xian) in China to Constantinople
                                                                      (the current Istanbul) in Turkey.

                                                                      There were various products coming from China. Besides the
                                                                      silk, there was also a huge trade in porcelain, tea, incense, musk,
Ferdinand von Richthofen                                              satin etc. They were traded in trading centers along the route for
                                                                      medicine, jade and Roman gold.
                                                                      The cultural exchange was also a very important aspect of the
Although not all historians agree, it is believed that the overland   Silk Road.
Silk Road originates from the year 138 before Christ. In that         Buddhism found its way to China in the first century and had a
time, during the Han Dynasty, emperor Wudi sent out a mission         huge influence on religion, art and philosophy.
to the current Tajikistan, under command of Zuang Qian. The           The Chinese Buddhism, different to the traditional Buddhism,
goal of the mission was to build economic relations, but it ended     started to develop and became very important in the Chinese
in the imprisonment of the expedition members. After 13 years,        culture. This was way before Christianity and the Islam were
Zuang Qian managed to escape. In 115 before Christ, Zuang             first introduced in China through the Silk Road in the seventh
Qian went on a new mission, heading for the western region this       century.
time. After reaching South-East Uzbekistan, he sent out several
men to countries like Afghanistan, Iran and India. This was the
beginning of the overland trade between China and Persia.

The Silk Road

                                                                                                                                            9
Both in Buddhism and the Islam, the doctrine of the famous           In 1291, he sailed a fleet of Chinese junks over the South China
     Chinese philosopher Confusius (551-479 before Christ) was            Sea to Kanton and thereafter via Sumatra, Java and Ceylon
     significantly present.                                               through to Hormoz (Iran). He went ashore in Hormoz and
                                                                          continued his travels via Constantinople in 1295 back to Venice
                                                                          (24 years after he left Venice).

                                                                          Voyages of Marco Polo
     Confusius
                                                                          During the Venice and Genoa war, Marco Polo got captured. He
                                                                          was a prisoner of war from September 1298 until July 1299.
     The most important elements in the doctrine of Confusius were:

     -   The recovery of traditional norms and values as a cure for
         the social and political chaos in the time Confusius was alive

     -   Honest care for others

     -   Social and political loyalty and loyalty to your family

     -   Courage and trustworthiness

     -   The compliance of various traditional norms and values

     -   Responsibility for the social position of others (family,
         officials, etc.)

     These themes are written down in the Loen-Ju, his profound
     testament.

     A very important development in the history of the overland
     Silk Road, is the voyage of Marco Polo (1254-1324). Marco Polo       Marco Polo in jail
     was a tradesman and explorer from Venice, and he was the first
     ever European to write about and map the Far East.
     In 1271 he left for Chambalig (Peking) through Bagdad as an          In his cell he met Rustichello of Pisa. Rustichello was writing
     official envoy of Pope Gregorius X. He reached Chambalig after       novels of chivalry about King Arthur. Together they wrote the
     four years and was introduced at the court of Buklai Khan, this      famous book “Il Milione”, translated to English as “The Travels
     resulted in Khan admitting him to his following.                     of Marco Polo”. This book contained the unique intel Marco
     Kublai Khan provided Marco Polo with several assignments for         Polo had been gathering while in service of Kublai Khan and
     missions both in and outside of China.                               the book had a huge influence on the Mediterranean world and
     In the 17 years Marco Polo was working for Kublai Khan, he           geographical knowledge at that time.
     gathered both geographical knowledge and intel on the morals
     and customs in the various regions he visited (Tibet, Burma,
     Cochin, Nanking, Central China, etc.).

10
There has been some doubt about the credibility of the book,
                                                                   for instance by Frances Wood in her book “Did Marco Polo go
                                                                   to China?” (1995), but according to most historians, the volume
                                                                   of correct and verifiable information is proof that the book is
                                                                   indeed unique and truthful.

                                                                   The overland Silk Road came to its end due to several causes:

                                                                   -   In 522 two monks smuggled silkworms in hollow canes to
                                                                       the West, slowly starting the rise of silk manufacturing in
                                                                       the western world

                                                                   -   The end of the Mongolian Empire in the thirteenth century
                                                                       made the trading routes unsafe due to an increasing number
                                                                       of robbers.

Il Milione                                                         -   In the fourteenth century the immensely rapid spread
                                                                       of the plague through the Silk Road scared numerous of
                                                                       tradesman.

The knowledge in this book, especially the intel on the various    -   During the fifteenth century, the overland Silk Road was
trading routes and various coasts (Marco Polo was the first ever       overshadowed by the way more intensive maritime traffic,
to write about Japan), became a welcome source for explores            in which the V.O.C. (Verenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie)
like Vasco da Gama and Christoffel Columbus and was even the           played an important role. Between 1602 and 1682, 16
foundation for part of the famous Da Mauro world map which             million porcelain pieces were shipped from China to the
was published in 1459.                                                 Netherlands. This worked out to be about 200,000 a year.
                                                                       The Silk Road turned into the Porcelain Road after all.
The original manuscript of “Il Milione” has been lost and there
are about 150 different handwritten copies all with different
content due to writers leaving things out or making things up
themselves.

Gangs of robbers

                                                                                                                                     11
4          The history of the Maritime Silk Road                    The Chinese diplomat, adventurer, East-West trade networker
                                                                         and explorer Zheng He (Cheng Ho) made seven big voyages
                                                                         from China to South India and East Africa in the period of 1405
     Just like the overland Silk Road, the maritime Silk Road did        - 1433, he visited over thirty countries on these expeditions.
     not just focus on trade, but also on the exchange of culture and    He had been a Muslim eunuch ever since he was ten and even
     religion.                                                           became the confidential eunuch of the emperor Yongle when
     The maritime history of China started in the period of 221 - 111    he was fourteen. Zheng He also oversaw the building of the
     before Christ when they founded trading posts in the south-         forbidden city in Beijing for the emperor.
     easterly kingdoms. These posts were reached by traditional          He was an impressive individual with his two meters height and
     Chinese junks.                                                      weight of a hundred kilogram.
     In the third century, Zhu Ying and Kan Tai started the East-
     West route when they first sailed to South-East Asia. This voyage   From 1405 to 1411 he went on three voyages in South- and
     is seen as the start of the maritime Silk Road.                     South-East Asia, including the Persian Gulf, and he reached
                                                                         Calcutta in India.
     The Arabian and Persian sailing vessels acquired an important
     part in the West-East route in the seventh century.                 During his fourth trip in 1413, his fleet reached the Arabic cities
     In 1284, Kublai Khan enacted the “Official Ship Policy”, with the   Aden and Mecca. He also reached Egypt and discovered the
     intention to increase trade by the State.                           African East Coast (Somalia and Kenya) all the way through to
     The State funded the ships and in return received 70% of the        the coast of Mozambique.
     profit made by the tradesman. This made the shipping industry       During his fifth expedition from 1417 to 1419, he mapped the
     a state monopoly.                                                   entire of the African East Coast.
     In 1320 they abolished this system and from 1323 private trade      The goals of his sixth (1421-1423) and seventh (1431-1433)
     by sea flourished. This ended in 1435, when the trade was           expeditions were to map the world. The fleet got split up in
     forbidden.                                                          four squadrons, which all had the task to execute a part of this
                                                                         assignment.
     The extent and the duration of the expeditions of Zheng He
     arranged by the state (1371-1433), were unheard of in that time,    Zheng He had a fleet of 208 ships with a crew of 28,640 people,
     and they went on until the death of Zheng He in 1433.               consisting of astrologists, cartographers, military, doctors, chefs,
                                                                         carpenters, etc. His flagship was, tonnage wise, ten times as
     These expeditions had a long-term impact on the cultural            big as the De Santa Maria, the ship Columbus used to discover
     relations between East and West. They formed the base of the        America in 1492 with his crew of 150.
     improved maritime Silk Road and even of current the BRI-
     project as expressed in the following quote in the magazine
     ‘Geschiedenis Magazine’, which translates to History Magazine,
     by Gijsbrecht Oonk written in May 2016:

     “The current political and economic rise of China has stimulated
     a renewed interest in the story of Zheng He.”

                                                                         Ships Zheng He and Columbus

                                                                         Zheng He had no maritime background, but managed to cover
                                                                           a total distance of around 200,000 kilometers. He established
                                                                           an advanced marine base in Malesia.

                                                                         Zheng He’s fleet was made out of six types of ships

                                                                         -   The flagship with nine masts, each with nine sails and a
     Routes of Zheng He                                                      length of more than 100 meters.

                                                                         -   Fast supply vessels.

12
-   Grain vessels with seven masts, each vessel 92 meters long and
    39.6 meters wide, used for storage of provisions, horses, etc.

-   Water-storage vesels, with the exact same measurements
    as the grain ships, meant for the storage of fresh drinking
    water. This is the first time in history that water tankers were
    built.

-   Battleships, 90 x 31 meters with six masts. These vessels
    were used for the transportation of military staff. They also
    functioned as the command center during a time of crisis
    and were equipped to act as a military base when on the
    mainland.

-   Warships with five masts, 59 x 22.3 meters. They were built
                                                                       Fra Mauro map of the world
    to be very light and were therefore extremely fast. The ships
    were provided with advanced weapons like iron cannons
    and bullets, gunpowder, burning darts, explosives, stabbing        After Zheng He’s death in 1433, the fleet was put to rest. This is
    and striking weapons, etc. These ships were to protect the         mainly due to the fact that, despite the products that the fleet
    fleet if needed.                                                   imported to China (ivory, spices, exotic wood, creams, and even
                                                                       giraffes, zebra’s and ostriches), the expeditions were heavily loss
                                                                       making and they were a big strain on the treasure chest.
                                                                       In 1435, the new emperor Xuande forbad foreign trade by sea
                                                                       and ordered the destruction of the entire fleet. The ban on the
                                                                       trade went on until the second half of the sixteenth century,
                                                                       but it did not stop the trade completely, it just made it more
                                                                       dangerous.
                                                                       From the moment the ban was lifted, up until the start of the
                                                                       nineteenth century, China became yet again an important
                                                                       trading power when it came to the trade with Indonesia, India
                                                                       and Afrika.

                                                                       The influence of Zheng He on the world trade was very big. This
                                                                       was partially thanks to his personality and diplomacy.
                                                                       Zheng He’s goal, which Xi Jinping has frequently identified to
                                                                       be one of the pillars of the current BRI-project, was worldwide
Navigational methods Zheng He
                                                                       collaboration, based on:

The navigational methods used were:                                    A - No interventions and no colonization; instead there should
                                                                           be friendship and peaceful coexistence, like good neighbors
-   Maps of already known and mapped areas                                 should strive for.

-   Nautical compendia written by Zheng He’s predecessors.             B - Free world trade to compliment local trade.

-   Hourglasses.                                                       C - Cultural exchange; living in harmony and peace and the
                                                                           stimulation of humanism.
-   A Chinese compass, invented between 300/200 before                     The humanism in China was based on the doctrine of
    Christ.                                                                Confusius, which was very important in the fifteenth
                                                                           century (organization and righteousness).
-   Kamal, a navigation method based on studying stars which
    was invented in the ninth century in Arabia. It allows you to      D - Equality of partnership between states; with the purpose of
    estimate the geographical latitude.                                    enabling a harmonious world.

On the Fra Mauro world map of 1459, mentioned earlier in               E - Exchange of religions; Buddhism from China and Islam
chapter three, a ship was displayed just south of Africa. It is            from the Middle East. The Islam rose considerably late in
believed that this ship is meant to be one of the Chinese junks            China, long after the expeditions of Zheng He.
from Zheng He’s fleet.
Some theories say that even Amerika (70 years before
Columbus), the Antarctic and Australia were discovered during
these voyages, but there is no solid proof to support these
theories.

                                                                                                                                             13
Voyage of Vasco da Gama

     After the destruction of the fleet in 1435, 500 years of European
     hegemony started. The Europeans had completely different
     goals than Zheng He. One of the first explorers that sailed from
     Portugal to India via the Cape of Good Hope (the West-East
     route) was Vasco da Gama (1469-1524). He delivered the famous
     words on his departure on the 8th of July 1497:

     “May God assist us to complete this voyage”

     The time of peaceful, humanistic expeditions was over. This
     was shown by Vasco da Gama when he raided an unarmed ship
     (a so-called dhow) named Miri in 1502. The ship carried 380
     pilgrims and was on its way back from Mecca. After raiding
     the ship, Vasco da Gama set fire to the ship and let it go down
     with the pilgrims still aboard. Even in that day of age, this was a
     ruthless act of piracy.                                               Vasco da Gama

14
5         The six corridors

China has identified six corridors for the BRI-project:

A - The China, Mongolia, Russia corridor.                          D - The China – Pakistan corridor.
    The trade between these three countries has been very              This corridor is based on the construction of 3,000
    strong for a long time.                                            kilometers of railway from Kashgar in China (North) to
    The possibility to establish a common company for a                Gwadar Port in Pakistan (South).
    rail link (High Speed Rail) is being investigated. (2,100          Right now, this is China’s biggest investment project, with a
    kilometers of electrical railway of which 1,100 would lay in       total time span of 10 to 12 years.
    Mongolia).

                                                                   E - The Bangladesh – China – India – Myanmar corridor.
B - The New Euro-Asia continental corridor.                            These four countries have started a study-work group
    In this corridor from Kazakhstan and Poland, various               together, but so far no concrete projects have been formed.
    already existing railways from China to West-Europa lay
    and several new railways will be constructed.
                                                                   F - The China – Indonesian Peninsula corridor.
                                                                       This concerns six countries (Cambodia, China, Laos,
C - The China – Central Asia – West Asia corridor.                     Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam). The first projects have
    This corridor would start in Xinjiang in China and would           been finished already.
    go through the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea and
    the Arabic Peninsula to the five Central Asian countries       There is a clear difference between the corridors (Belts) and the
    (Kazakhstan, Kirgizia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and              routes (Roads) as some corridors are reached by railway, others
    Turkmenistan) and to Iran and Turkey in West Asia.             by ship and some are even multimodal (by railway and ship).

                                                                                                                                       15
6         The new Overland Silk Roads                               In 2007, the project carried 237,000 passengers per day. In
                                                                         2014 this has grown with a solid 10% per year to 2.9 million
     The BRI project is not just based on railways and maritime          passengers a day.
     shipments, but on different infrastructure projects as well,
     such as airports, telephone networks, roads, oil and gas piping     From the records of this study, the Chinese HSR railway system
     networks, electricity, I.T., healthcare and other social projects   appears to be the most efficient system in the world. The costs
     (schools, housing, potable water, etc.).                            are 1/3 to 2/3 of the costs of similar projects in other countries.

     We have however, chosen to just focus on the railway and            Reasons for this are:
     maritime routes in our research.
                                                                         -     standardization of the design of various construction
     Right now, there are 4 known routes:                                      elements.
                                                                         -     development of innovative and competitive capacity for the
     A - China – Europe via Central Asia and Russia (the North                 construction of equipment.
         route).
                                                                         After the fusion of CSR (China South Rail) and CNR (China
     B - China – Europe via Kazakhstan or Turkey (the Central- and       North Rail) in CRRC (China Railway Construction Corp.
         Southern route).                                                Ltd.) in 2015, the construction of HSR materials and the
                                                                         infrastructure itself became considerately more efficient and
     C - China – Persian Gulf via Central Asia.                          therefore it became a big competition on the international scale.
                                                                         CRRC has around 180,000 people working for them. Kenya
     D - China – South East Asia and the Indian Ocean coast.             (Nairobi – Mombassa railway, 485 km) and Thailand are also
                                                                         working with the Chinese technology and the new Budapest
     The strength of this part of the BRI project is the Chinese High-   to Beograd (Hungary – Servia) railway will be built with the
     Speed Rail (HSR).                                                   Chinese technology as well.

     China started the development and the building of high-speed        Russia is planning a fast development of the new high-speed
     passenger trains in 2004. At that time the average speed on the     cargo train system on the northern route, but it is not a top
     Chinese railway was 48 km/hour.                                     priority. It concerns a total of 7,000 kilometers of rail, of which
     China started much later then her competitors:                      770 kilometers (Moscow – Kazan) has been put out to tender
                                                                         already.
     -   Japan		         1964      Shinkansen                            Even though this route is the shortest distance between China
     -   France          1981      T.G.V.                                and Europa, a quick development is not expected.
     -   Germany         1991      ICE                                   The central and southern route started in 2011 when the first
                                                                         container train went from China to Europe (Congoing –
     But, in less than ten years time, China developed an HSR            Duisburg). They were followed by ten more trains that year.
     passenger system with a length of 0 to 19,000 kilometers and
     minimum train speed of 180 km/hour.
     This resulted in enough experience to convert passenger trains      In 2015 there were eight important routes from China to
     into trains that can transport cargo as well.                       Europe:

     By now they are even working on the development of trains with          Year       Route                      Duration       Distance
     speeds of 380 km/hr (CRH 380-A).                                                                              (days)         (km)
     The current trains, 8 to 16 carriages, can reach speeds from 250        2011       Chongqing-Duisburg         15             11,179
     to 350 km/hr.                                                           2012       Wuhan-Prague               15             11,000
     To build the trains and to put the new infrastructure in, China         2013/4     Chengdu-Lodz               14             9,826
     has collaborated with various international partners:                   2013/7     Zhengzhou-Hamburg          15             10,214
                                                                             2013/9     Suzhou-Warsaw              15             11,200
     -   Bombardier (Canada)                                                 2014/12    Yiwu-Madrid                18             13,053
     -   Alstom (France)                                                     2015       Changsha-Duisburg          13             11,808
     -   Siemens (Germany)                                                   2015       Hefei-Poland               18             9,820
     -   Kwasaki Heavy Industries (Japan)

     According to the study “China Transport Topics no. 8 – January
     2013” by the World Bank, the HSR has had a big contribution to
     the regional and industrial growth.
     The Chinese HSR network currently makes up 55% of the
     worldwide network and covers almost all of the 33 regions in
     China.

16
It is expected that Tilburg will become an important
                                                                     intersection for transport to and from Belgium, France and
                                                                     Spain. The same goes for Rotterdam, where the Overland and
                                                                     Maritime Silk Road come together.

                                                                     In April 2018, a new connection between Austria and China
                                                                     (Vienna – Chengdu) was created. This passed the border
                                                                     crossing in Kazakhstan, Khorgos – Atijnkol and it went
                                                                     noticeably quicker than the border crossing in Poland.

                                                                     One of the biggest players in the various railway projects is DB
                                                                     Schenker, the company that received the yearly AFLAS Award
                                                                     (Asian Freight, Logistic and Supply Chain) in Shanghai in 2018,
                                                                     for the third time in a row.
Train Zhengzhou – Europe – Copyright Deutsche Bahn
                                                                     Problems are:
                                                                     - The limited return freight (west – east). This has become
In 2016 the Chengdu – Tilburg – Rotterdam Express started.              less of a problem since a middle class has formed in China,
11,000 kilometers, 14 days via the southern route. It started           wanting to buy products from the west. This middle class is
with about 250 trains a year travelling this route, but these           growing and so is the goods flow to China (cars, car parts,
numbers rapidly increased. At that time, around 1.000 trains a          medicine, dairy products, luxury products, vegetables, fruit,
year would make its way to Duisburg vice versa. By now, trains          etc.).
go from Tilburg to Changsha v.v. via the Chinese border town
Manzhouli (traveltime 17 days) and from Tilburg to Chengdu           -   More and more construction materials, machinery and
v.v. via the border town Khorgos (Kazakhstan – China)                    its spare parts, and raw industrial materials like plastic,
(traveltime 14 days) very regularly.                                     aluminum and lubrication oil are exported to China.
The logistics company GVT Group has built a Holland Pavilion
(1,500 m²) in Chengdu in China with 22 exposition rooms,
which was opened in November 2018. Dutch products are
                                                                     				                              from China
promoted in this pavilion. The goal is to increase the number of
transports from Tilburg to China.

In 2017 the first train from Yiwu arrived in London (12,000          				                              to China
kilometers, 18 days).

On the 26th of April 2018, the first train to Antwerp left China.    -   The differences in the rail gauges, which creates the issue of
The plan is to have trains going travelling this route once or           having to transship cargo two, or even three times when it
twice a month. The train arrived on the 12th of May 2018.                has to go to/through Spain or Portugal.

The Dutch company ProRail and Baltic Rail and join                   Rail gauges:
forces to stimulate transport of cargo. They want to reach a         - China and Europe			                               1,435 mm
maximum travelling time of 22 hours for cargo trains from the        - CIS countries, (former Sovietcountries)           1,520 mm
Netherlands to the Baltic ports (1,800 km).                          - Spain and Portugal			                             1,668 mm

Various other new developments are happening as well:                -   The lack of infrastructure.
- Italy to China v.v. via Turkey
- Spain to China v.v. (Sinkiang Region); total of 24 days            -   Delays at the border crossing due to for instance;
- Finland (Helsinki) to China v.v. via Russia and Kazakhstan             administration, the language barrier, shunt problems
                                                                         (shunting of locomotives which are a possession of the
Due to several technical improvements, electronic documents,             owner of the carriages). Furthermore, the border security
etc., the crossing of the Chinese and Kazakhstani border has             stop in Poland (Malaszewicze) is 900 meters long, which
become a lot faster.                                                     causes the need to split up trains of 1,200 meters.

According to China Railway the total number of trains was:               In August 2018, the Polish P.K.P. Cargo send word out that
                                                                         the problems at Malaszewicze had been fixed and that it
- in 2011                     17                                         could handle 40% more capacity. This was contradicted by
- in 2016                   1702                                         several transporters, claiming that the hold at the border
- in 2017                   3673                                         was still often between four to six days. The P.K.P. says the
                                                                         capacity will be quadrupled in 2020.
For these results, 27 cities in China and 29 cities in Europe were
the start and finish points.

                                                                                                                                          17
The current overland transport from China to Europe is less         Right now, there are three propositions that are being
     than one percent of the total transport, but according to China     investigated which would connect Kunning (South West China)
     it has to grow up to 5% in 2020. To try and reach this goal,        with Singapore:
     the Chinese local authorities have started sponsoring the rail
     transport.                                                          -   East route via Vietnam;
                                                                         -   Central route via Laos;
     The subsidies differ in the various regions and are estimated to    -   West route via Myanmar (this route of 690 kilometers was
     be between USD 1,000 and USD 2,500 per TEU (Twenty Foot                 already under construction, but Myanmar pulled the plug
     Equivalent Unit) resulting in approx. USD 100,000 per train             on the project in 2011).
     (20 to 60% of the total operational costs). As a result of the
     present growth of the number of transports, it is to be expected    The economic interest to build the other two routes are
     that those subsidies will be reduced in the short term.             significant enough.

     The most used rail route is the China – Kazakhstan – Russia –       A Chinese-Indonesian joint venture was established in Jakarta
     Poland route, for which in Kazakhstan (Khorgos) and Poland          on the 16th of October 2015, with the goal to build the Jakarta
     (Malaszewicze) ultra-modern border terminals have been built.       – Bandung HSR line (256 kilometers). This line connects the
                                                                         cities with a commute of 40 minutes compared to the previous
                                                                         3 hours.
                                                                         This project mostly serves as a prestige project for China, to
                                                                         show how fast and reasonably priced you can build a quality
                                                                         HSR line.

                                                                         This project definitely has advertising purposes for the Chinese
                                                                         HSR export too, especially seeing as the difference in height is
                                                                         600 meters over a length of 20 kilometers.
                                                                         Indonesia has considered the Japanese proposal as well. But due
                                                                         to the longer time of completion (one or two years), the Chinese
                                                                         offer turned out to be cheaper in interest wise.
                                                                         The project has been contracted by now and will cost Indonesia
                                                                         USD 5.1 million and should be built in 2.5 to 3 years.
     Khorgos terminal

                                                                         By now, many Chinese companies have relocated from the coast
     The China - Central Asia – West Asia route is economically          to the inland. This is due to:
     doubtful due to the difficult accessibility of the territory and
     the low population density of the Central Asian countries           -   shorter transport time to Europe via rail;
     Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.                  -   cheaper labor.
     The Ankara-Istanbul (530 kilometers) HSR railway line is the
     most significant project in this route.                             For instance, Hewlett Packard. They moved from Shanghai to
                                                                         Shongqing (approx. 1,500 km west of Shanghai), where each year
     The China – Pakistan Railway (750 kilometers) is currently          20 million laptops and 15 million printers are made.
     being built and two other projects are under investigation. These
     two other projects would create direct connections, between         By now, Djibouti and Addis Abeba in Ethiopia have been
     China and Gwadar Port and China- Arabic Sea.                        connected by the Chinese HSR technique as well. The African
                                                                         Unity Organization is supporting an equatorial African railway
     The Indian rail project is one of the most successful Chinese       to promote national and international trade and China has
     HSR projects.                                                       already gotten involved.
     Indian Rail currently has one of the largest rail networks in the
     world. 115,000 kilometers of rail with over 23 million passengers   Several Asian countries are included in the BRI-project and
     a day and 1,060 million tons of cargo every year (2015).            some are considerably resistant:
     India and China have a public – private cooperation, in which
     five HSR lines are being studied at the moment.                     -   In Laos, 400 kilometres of railway will connect the Chinese
                                                                             border with the capital city Vientiane. They started building
     Due to the natural border between China and India, the                  the track in 2016 and it is estimated to be finished end 2021.
     Himalaya mountains, a direct line between the two countries is          The cost of the construction is paid by China for now and
     impossible.                                                             paying them back is going to be very difficult.

     Myanmar stopped their relations with China when it comes to         -   Sri Lanka has got a new international airport in Mattala,
     railways, making a connection through Myanmar not possible              this was funded by China. Due to a lack of passengers it is
     either.                                                                 nearly impossible to settle their debt to China, which in
                                                                             return has resulted in China taking over the Sri Lankan port
                                                                             of Hambantota.

18
-   Indonesia finished the HSR line Jakarta – Bandung but is       of 53,85 kilometres, it lies 100 metres under the seabed and 240
    struggling with the increasing Chinese influence in their      metres under the sea level. The second longest is the Channel
    country. This is even though Indonesia is the country most     Tunnel, with a length of 50,5 kilometres, laying 37,9 metres
    reoccurring in the BRI-projects.                               under the sea level. The Channel Tunnel took 7 years to be built
                                                                   and was opened in 1994.
As mentioned before, they have also started BRI-projects in
Africa. On the 20th and 21st of July 2018, Xi Jinping visited      The challenges of building the Bering Strait Tunnel, which
Senegal, where it turned out that the country wants to play an     should take 15 years, are expected to be as follows:
active role in the BRI-project:
                                                                   -   The extreme length, resulting in very serious requirements
-   A trans-African highway from Dakar to Djibouti.                    regarding fire-safety and ventilation.

-   A railway from Dakar to Bamako.                                -   The characteristics of the soil, which is dominated by
                                                                       permafrost. This results in a permanently frozen bottom,
-   A highway from Mali to Conakry.                                    even at large depths. Good isolation of the tunnel and
                                                                       possibly even the injection of a liquid nitrogen in the tunnel
-   Dams in Guinea and Ivory Coast.                                    construction might be necessary.

There are two more routes which are under consideration;           -   The variety in the characteristics of the soil, from soft
                                                                       sandstone to hard granite, in combination with various
A - From China to the East-West coast of the USA. This would           fracture lines, makes drilling difficult.
    be by train, going through Siberia, Alaska and Canada and
    it would save about 7 days of travelling time and the Panama   -   The construction will have to be adapted to regular
    Canal passage costs (USD 350,000 per passage of a large            earthquakes, mostly light, as a result of the clash of two
    container vessel).                                                 earth plates (average twice a year with a minimum force 7
                                                                       on Richter’s Scale).

                                                                   -   The lack of infrastructure on both sides, resulting in
                                                                       construction of approx. 6,000 kilometres of new railway

                                                                   -   The difference in rail gauge on both sides (Siberia 1,520 mm/
                                                                       Alaska 1,435 mm).

                                                                   The total costs for the project are predicted to be ca. 100 billion
                                                                   US Dollar. For comparison, the costs to construct the Channel
                                                                   Tunnel were USD 15 billion.

                                                                   Plans for a bridge or dam between Siberia and Alaska have been
                                                                   investigated as well but were found to be infeasible.

Railway China – USA                                                B - From China to Rotterdam by train, then on to the West
                                                                       Coast of the USA by ship and thereafter by train to the East
                                                                       coast of the USA. This too, will be a fair cost saver.
An important detail is that Siberia and Alaska are separated
by the Bering Strait, a sea strait of 85 kilometers wide and 50
meters deep. Back in 1905 already, the Russian Tsar Nicolas II     The transport of cargo by train in the Netherlands grew from
had intentions to connect Siberia and Alaska by road or by a       37 to 41 million tonnes in 2017. This is namely international
railway sea tunnel.                                                transport, as the inland transport decreased from 5.5 million
                                                                   tonnes in 2007 to 2.7 million tonnes in 2017.
On the 17th of October 2007, Russia announced that they
wanted to construct the Bering Strait Tunnel in cooperation        On the 26th of August 2018, the ten thousandth train between
with the USA. The total length of the tunnel was to be 113         China and Europa completed its journey. This had huge media
kilometres, as at both sides the tunnel would have to lie a bit    coverage in China. At the end of August 2018, 48 Chinese cities
past the shore edges.                                              had been connected to 42 European cities by railway.
This has been nothing more than a plan for a long time, but
Russia did start the work process for the Northern part of the
Trans-Siberian railways.

The longest undersea tunnel at the moment is the 1988 built
Seikantunnel which connects the Japanese islands Honshu and
Hokaido. This tunnel took 17 years to be built and has a length

                                                                                                                                         19
7           The New Maritime Silk Roads                                   stability characteristics, the machinery systems, navigation,
                                                                               maintenance, systems and the safety equipment;

     7.1         General                                                   -   Topside icing, bringing a potential reduction of stability and
                                                                               equipment functionality with it;
     China has identified two new maritime routes for the BRI-
     project:                                                              -   Low temperatures, as it affects the working environment
                                                                               and human performance;
     -     The route from China to the Mediterranean harbours in
           Europe (Piraeus and Venice/Trieste/Koper) via the South         -   Extended periods of darkness or daylight, as it may affect
           China Sea and the Indian Ocean.                                     navigation, human performance, etc.;

     -     The route from China to the coastal harbours in Asia via the    -   High latitudes, as it affects navigation systems and
           Pacific Ocean and the South Chinese Sea.                            communication systems;

     Other routes to the east coast of Africa or to the Netherlands        -   The possible lack of accurate and complete hydrographic
     (Rotterdam), Belgium (Zeebrugge) and South America via the                data and the limited search and rescue facilities;
     Mediterranean Sea are under investigation.
                                                                           -   Potential lack of experience in polar operations amongst the
     And on top off all of that, there is a completely new                     ship crew, increasing the chances for human error;
     development; the route from China to Europe via the Northern
     Ice Sea.                                                              -   Potential lack of suitable emergency response equipment;

                                                                           -   Rapidly changing and severe weather conditions;
     7.2         The Northern Ice Sea Route
                                                                           -   The environment, with its sensitivity to harmful substances
     As a result of the melting of the Arctic ice cap by climate change,       and other environment impacts and its need for longer
     this route will probably turn into an easily navigable route              restoration.
     within the next ten years. The route saves about 30% on time
     and it saves on the Suez Canal costs (approx. USD 470,000 for         Various classification agencies issue certificates based on the
     large container vessels per passage; for instance, Maersk Line        Polar Code.
     with 1,430 passages each year, pays almost USD 700 million to
     the Suez Canal authorities on a yearly basis).                        Begin June 2018, the USA approved off two shipping lanes in the
                                                                           Bering Strait; a northern and a southern route.
     In September 2013, COSCO’s heavy cargo vessel YONG SHENG
     was the first vessel that sailed from China to Rotterdam via this     In June 2018, the authoritative science-magazine Nature
     route, without the aid of any ice breaking vessels.                   published that the Antarctic ice cap is melting rapidly as well.
                                                                           This has resulted in a 7 mm rise of the sea level in the last 25
     The northern passage had already been used 370 times in 2013,         years, of which 3 mm in the past 5 years (40%).
     with approval of the Russian authorities, and was mainly used         For a long time, it was assumed that only the Arctic was causing
     for the provision of cargo to the Siberian ports. The number          a rise in the sea level, but as it turns out, the Antarctic (which
     of transports is still at a yearly increase. The number of Bering     has a completely different structure) contributes to that a lot too.
     Strait passages was at 485 in 2016 and grew to over 800 in
     September 2018. The growth of the volume of cargo via the polar       According to the Allianz Safety and Shipping Review 2018, 30%
     route is approx. 35% per year.                                        of all shipping accidents happen in the South China Sea (also
     The distance from East Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal is           known as the New Bermuda Triangle). It concerns 252 accidents,
     approx. 21,000 km while via the polar route it is only approx.        which resulted in 30 total loss vessels (2017). Although 75% of
     13,000 km, resulting not only the saving om the Suez Canal cost       all accidents were the result of human failure, a number of new
     but also in the saving of 8,000 km.                                   risks were also defined in the review

     IMO (International Maritime Organisation) has set                     -   Increase of the number of technological claims as result of
     some compulsorily rules for navigating polar ice (not just                new technics.
     requirements to the design of the vessel, but requirements            -   Political risks in the Middle East and South Chinese Sea.
     regarding the crew as well).                                          -   Climate; a record high of heavy storms and the increase of
     The Polar Code (Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters) was             shipping via the Arctic route.
     brought to live in 2014 and is a framework of protection for both     -   Automatically sailing ships.
     polar areas; the North Pole (Arctic) and South Pole (Antarctic).
                                                                           On the 23rd of August 2018, the first containership with ice
     The following risks are taken into account:                           class, the Venta Maersk (3,600 TEU), sailed from Vladiwostok
                                                                           via the Northern Ice Sea route to St. Petersburg. The ship had
     -     Ice, as it may damage the hull structure of the ship, its       an ice breaking vessel escorting it in case of an emergency. The

20
Venta Maersk was the first loaded containership to sail this               project is USD 3,5 billion. It makes Djibouti the entrance to
route, 8,000 kilometres shorter than the Suez Canal. The vessel            one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world,
passed the Bering Strait on the 6th of September 2018 and                  including Ethiopia, the fastest growing economy in the
arrived at her destination on the 28th of September 2018 (during           whole of Africa.
this trip just two stops were made, Vostochny and Busan).                  Over 90% of the Ethiopian import and export passes
According to shipping company Maersk, this was a test run on               through Djibouti. This generates 70% of the GDP of
collection scientific data and sailing an unknown route with a             Djibouti.
container ship, without the help of an icebreaker.                         The construction of the Djibouti – Addis Ababa railway,
In 2017, the Russian LNG tanker Christoffe de Mangerie was the             opened in 2017, has played an important part in this. The
first merchant vessel to sail from Sabetta in Russia to Jiangsu            railway with a length of 752 km reduces the transport time
Rudong in China without an icebreaker. The journey took a                  of 3 days via road to 12 hours via rail.
mere 19 days, instead of the 35 days it would have taken via the
Suez Canal.                                                           -   The port of Piraeus in Greece is the biggest receiver.
                                                                          COSCO, China’s largest shipping company and logistic
The IUMI (International Union of Marine Insurance) has issued             provider, started modernizing parts of the port of Piraeus
a warning for the insurance of ships that sail via the Arctic             in 2008 and took over 51% of the shares of the Piraeus Port
route. This warning is mainly based on the constant change of             Authority in April 2016, under the condition that COSCO
ice conditions, the shortage of emergency harbours and “search            will receive another 16% of the shares in 2021.
and rescue” facilities. Furthermore, the maps of the region               As a result of this, Piraeus became one of the largest
should be extended and updated. The experience of the crew,               container ports in Europe. In 2018, Piraeus was probably
the design and the condition of the ship have to be carefully             the fifth largest port in Europe, even though ten years before
examined according to IUMI.                                               it did not even secure a spot in the top fifteen largest ports.
Due to the lack of historic details, marine insurers have to make         The presence of COSCO in Piraeus is part of the BRI-project
detailed risk-analyses.                                                   because it offers the possibility to transport cargo via
                                                                          Piraeus to Central and South East Europe.

                                                                      COSCO is forth in the ranking of shipping companies which
                                                                      transported a total of 21 million TEU at the end of June 2018.
                                                                      This number increases each year with an average of one million
                                                                      TEU.
                                                                      The top ten shipping companies that transported a total of 18
                                                                      million TEU in 2017, were:

                                                                      No Shipping Company                      Capacity in      Number
                                                                                                               million TEU      of ships
                                                                      1     APM-Maersk                         4.1              742
                                                                      2     Mediterranean Shipping             3.3              525
                                                                            Company (MSC)
                                                                      3     CMA-CGM Group                      2.5              505
                                                                      4     COSCO Shipping                     2.0              366
                                                                      5     HAPAG Lloyd                        1.6              227
                                                                      6     Ocean Network Express (ONE)        1.5              232
                                                                      7     Evergreen Marine Corp.             1.1              197
Northern Ice Sea Route                                                8     Orient Overseas Container          0.7              100
                                                                            Line (OOCL)
China and Finland are currently discussing how Finland could          9     Yang Min Marine                    0.65             103
be involved in this route, but the contact between China and          10    Pacific International Line (PIL)   0.45             135
Latvia is very good as well.
                                                                      The take-over of OOIL, including OOCL, by COSCO in 2018 for
                                                                      a total amount of USD 6.3 billion, changed this ranking.
7.3         Important ports in the maritime Silk Roads
                                                                      The fact that the Long Beach Container Terminal in the USA
The past years China has invested a large amount of money in          was owned by OOCL has caused commotion for some time.
various ports:                                                        This quieted down after COSCO announced to transfer this
                                                                      ownership to a separate foundation and to search for a buyer for
-     The port of Djibouti is China’s only overseas base/navy base.   this foundation in July 2018.
      In July 2018, Djibouti opened the first part of the largest
      free customs zone in Africa. This Djibouti International        The top six container shipping companies are in control of
      Free Trade Zone (DIFTZ) project has an area of 4,800            70% of the total market, and they hold this control with the
      hectare and is financed by Djibouti Ports, together with        permission of the European, American and Chinese anti-
      three Chinese partners. The total investment in this ten-year   monopoly authorities.

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