The New Normal? A 7-country comparative study on the impacts of COVID-19 on trust, social cohesion, democracy and expectations for an uncertain ...
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The New Normal? A 7-country comparative study on the impacts of COVID-19 on trust, social cohesion, democracy and expectations for an uncertain future. FR GER IT NL PL UK US 1
About More in Common More in Common is an international initiative set up in 2017 to build societies that are stronger, more united, and more resilient to the increasing threats of polarization and social division. We work with a wide range of groups in civil society, politics, government, business, faith, education, philanthropy and the media to connect people across lines of division. More in Common’s teams in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States work together and share a commitment to advancing our mission. For more information please visit www.moreincommon.com or contact us at contact@moreincommon.com 2
About this Study COVID-19 has upended the lives of people across the world, causing untold suffering and dislocation, with a death toll expected to soon exceed one million. The impact of the pandemic on our health, economy and society will reshape the world of the 2020s. It could result in societies becoming more deeply divided along existing fault lines, but that is not inevitable. This study shows that COVID-19 has unleashed hopes for change, especially in countries that have struggled most with the virus. It has also made us more aware of our shared humanity, of the value of strong local communities, and of the importance of our connection to nature. Many choices lie ahead as we grapple with the fallout of the pandemic. The decisions being made in the months ahead – in families, communities and nations – will have consequences for a generation. This is why More in Common has compiled this snapshot of public opinion in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States, with key findings on: • The impact of the pandemic on personal health, family life, employment and finances • How COVID-19 has impacted our societies – and people’s feelings of togetherness, solidarity, empathy, trust and loneliness • Whether people want a return to normal or wish to see significant change in the aftermath of the pandemic • Views on political priorities and support for policies on issues such as the economy, jobs, the environment and taxation • Hopes and fears for the future Our snapshot combines a mix of country-specific and cross-country questions. We hope that the findings presented here, as well as the detailed national studies that form part of this project, will provide valuable insights into this once-in-a-generation moment. Most of all, we hope they will strengthen efforts to build more united and resilient societies. 3
Scope and Methodology Scope France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, United Kingdom, United States Methodology N=2,000 per country; margin of error +/- 2%; some figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Research partners § France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and Poland: Kantar § UK and US: YouGov Fieldwork dates § France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and Poland: July 1-8, 2020 § UK: June 19-28, 2020 § US: June 19-22, 2020 Method: Online survey using representative demographic quotas Note: Due to space constraints, not all questions were asked in every country 4
Findings at a Glance (1) The pandemic has generated a mix of compassion, isolation and anxiety. • Majorities in all countries feel reminded of our shared humanity; significant numbers also sense that people’s level of concern for each other has improved. • Perceived commitment to social distancing measures varies widely between countries and trust in each other has fallen, in some cases by a daunting margin. • About half report feeling alone in this crisis, and many perceive growing levels of division. • In every country, majorities fear a second wave of COVID-19 infections and lockdowns, greater division and political instability, and severe economic depressions. • The United States is markedly worse off: Americans are profoundly concerned about the division in their country, report worsening trust in their government, and are most likely of all nationalities to want the country to become more united. • In all 7 countries, medical staff, frontline workers, emergency personnel and medical researchers are seen as deserving the most praise for how they performed during the first phase of the pandemic 5
Findings at a Glance (2) Germany and The Netherlands do well where others struggle, but all governments face skepticism of their handling of information. • In the UK, US, France, and Poland, people tend to feel deeply disappointed by their government’s handling of the crisis so far, while Germans and the Dutch feel greater levels of pride. • Correspondingly, confidence in the government’s ability to tackle future crises is low everywhere except for Germany and the Netherlands. • Across countries, people are split on whether the government is hiding information from the public, while significant minorities report believing that the crisis is being exaggerated to pursue an agenda. • Everywhere studied, trust in government is higher at the local level. 6
Findings at a Glance (3) Big appetites for change, but modest expectations it will happen. • In countries hardest hit by the pandemic—Italy, UK, US, France—most have hopes for profound change. However, only Americans anticipate “significant changes will happen” after the pandemic. • Far from dampening commitment to a greener future, majorities in 6 of 7 countries say the government is not doing enough on climate, and show broad support for policies such as a Green New Deal. • Most countries want their government to focus on healthcare, employment and the environment in the aftermath of this crisis. • In the US, between 17% and 37% say they would not get vaccinated against COVID-19. • While there are mixed views on the EU’s handling of COVID-19 (and negative views in Italy), there is broad support for stronger European and multilateral cooperation to weather this and future storms – including taking on common debt. • Many see rescue funds as an opportunity to shift norms on corporate accountability, better wages, and environmental protection. 7
Table of Contents I. The Impact of COVID-19 on People’s Personal Lives 9 II. Collective Experience under COVID-19 15 III. Power, Institutions and the Media 25 IV. After COVID-19 42 V. Views on the European Union, European Policies and Social 55 Cohesion in Europe VI. Message Testing 62 8
I. The Impact of COVID-19 on People’s Personal Lives 9
People in all countries feel their mental health has worsened more than their physical health. Physical Health Mental Health Has worsened Has not changed Has improved Has worsened Has not changed Has improved 19 71 10 22 70 8 14 77 8 24 69 8 22 67 12 26 64 10 17 72 11 20 69 11 28 63 9 37 57 7 27 60 13 36 57 7 21 72 7 35 60 4 Numbers in % Numbers in % Question: To what extent are the following aspects of your life different due to the COVID-19 pandemic? 10
Everywhere, people’s financial situations have worsened significantly, while impacts on family life are mixed. Family Life Financial Situation Has worsened Has not changed Has improved Has worsened Has not changed Has improved 14 73 14 30 63 7 14 73 13 25 68 7 21 65 14 48 45 7 10 75 15 21 69 10 24 62 14 45 47 8 33 54 13 31 55 14 22 67 12 32 59 10 Numbers in % Numbers in % Question: To what extent are the following aspects of your life different due to the COVID-19 pandemic? 11
The personal impacts of COVID-19 vary greatly between countries. "Do you personally know someone who…?" Has been ill with COVID-19 Has died from COVID-19 Who has lost their job or employment due to COVID-19 45 Agree % Agree % 39 Agree % 31 33 33 30 33 29 28 18 15 13 21 11 14 11 17 16 13 5 5 Question: Do you personally know someone who…? 12
Financial difficulties are a greater concern than job security. Worried about... Loss of job or employment* Financial difficulties Worried % Worried % 55 46 42 42 39 42 34 35 32 28 27 24 21 20 Question: To what extent are you currently worried or not worried that….? *Note that these percentages exclude respondents who responded “Does not apply to me”. 13
There are high levels of concern about a second wave. Worried... That someone among their friends & That there will be future waves of COVID-19 family will get ill with COVID-19 infections and lockdown in their country 77 69 72 69 72 64 63 60 Worried % Worried % 59 56 58 57 48 40 Question: To what extent are you currently worried or not worried that….? 14
II. Collective Experience under COVID-19 15
People say they have followed social distancing rules. How closely did people abide by COVID-19 rules? Not closely Not very at all closely Somewhat closely Very closely 1 5 39 54 2 7 40 52 1 5 40 54 2 10 48 41 3 12 47 39 3 4 36 58 6 7 35 52 Question: When it comes to the COVID-19 social distancing rules that have been put in place in your area (wearing a mask, staying home, etc.), would you say that you have followed the rules…? 16
Most people feel duty-bound to follow the rules but differ on whether others adhere to them. “I feel that it is my duty as a citizen to follow Most people have been respecting Most people have not been social distancing and other rules.” the rules and doing their share to following the rules and have done fight the virus together. too little to fight the virus together. 87 90 85 37 63 82 81 79 77 23 Agree % 65 35 71 29 41 59 59 41 Agree % Question: Which of the following statements do you agree with more?; To what extent do you agree with the following statement? 17
People are most likely to have expressed thanks to essential workers in recent months. Participation in COVID-19 relief activities 75 FR GE 50 IT NL 25 PL UK US 0 Expressed thanks to health care Chose to spend more than usual Made a donation to a COVID-19 Volunteered to help those most or essential workers at a local business to support it cause or group affected during COVID-19 Question: In which of the following activities have you participated since the COVID-19 pandemic began, if any? 18
People appreciate those who are on the frontlines of combatting COVID-19. Groups that deserve particular praise for their actions 100 FR GE 75 IT 50 NL PL 25 UK US 0 aff l ) St rkers n ne hers ople n ers hers Ital y d ers ie nts only ople alis ts d ers ra nts ople l o o arc e w ac in a ip d e rn a g e dic a ew Pers se er P ss o Te ties nt le R ec lan g er P ou ss le m mi thyP e in y e ld e i e o J e I l M ntl en c al R O us in un rnm far e s (P ou n us in ea Fro erg d ic a ll b om m v e e l ou p Y b W Em Me ec lG o W Gr Big Sm s n a Q h ine atio BT C N LG Question: When you think of how different people have acted in the COVID-19 pandemic so far: Please indicate whether the following groups of people deserve particular praise for their actions, deserve particular blame for their actions, or whether they deserve neither 19 particular praise nor particular blame for their actions.
Blame is directed at the powerful. Groups that deserve particular blame for their actions 100 FR GE 75 IT 50 NL PL 25 UK US 0 ly) l f d ers ople list s o ple on ra nts d ers Italy ients hers o ple ners hers nne rkers S taf a a c rc t le y Pe urn rP e and m ig s lea esi n ecip Tea rP e s ow ea erso wo ica l n lth J o g e l Im s ti R d e s es P e d nme ea oun s (Po s ine un i a re Ol s ine alR n cy n tlin Me r W p u m lf u c e o ve Y rou b om e b i erg Fr l go G Big c W ma ll M ed m a e S E tion BTQ in es Na LG Ch Question: When you think of how different people have acted in the COVID-19 pandemic so far: Please indicate whether the following groups of people deserve particular praise for their actions, deserve particular blame for their actions, or whether they deserve neither 20 particular praise nor particular blame for their actions.
In all countries, trust in others has worsened more than it has improved. How has people’s trust in others changed during the crisis? Worse than before Has not changed Better than before 34 60 6 26 68 6 42 49 9 21 70 9 43 51 6 31 63 7 41 56 2 Numbers in % Question: To what extent are the following aspects of your life different due to the COVID-19 pandemic? 21
The crisis has reminded us of our shared humanity. “The COVID-19 pandemic has made me “The COVID-19 crisis has reminded us that no more aware of the living conditions of matter where we are from, as humans we are other people in this country.” fundamentally the same.” 77 74 77 76 77 73 73 70 59 58 57 57 Agree % 56 56 Agree % Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? 22
Many feel that people’s concern for one another has improved. People’s concern for others… Has worsened Has not changed Has improved 14 65 22 10 58 32 9 57 34 8 49 43 15 49 36 9 38 53 28 45 28 Numbers in % Question: Since this pandemic began, how have the following things changed in [COUNTRY], if at all? People’s concern for each other 23
About as many Europeans feel supported in this crisis as feel alone. In this crisis, I have felt In this crisis, I have felt “The COVID-19 pandemic has shown me that most like I am mainly on my own. the support and care of others. people in our country care about each other" 45 55 51 49 48 52 62 57 57 53 59 42 47 40 Agree % 53 47 39 61 Agree % Question: Which of the following statements do you agree with more?; To what extent do you agree with the following statement? 24
III. Power, Institutions and the Media 25
In all countries, people perceive a stronger sense of division than unity, especially in the US. More divided or united since COVID-19? Much more Somewhat more Neither more Somewhat more Much more divided divided divided nor more united united united 6 23 54 14 3 5 23 51 19 2 6 23 46 20 4 4 24 48 21 3 10 30 42 14 4 8 24 42 23 3 26 38 30 4 1 Numbers in % Question: Since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged, how have your perceptions of [COUNTRY] changed, if at all? Is it…? 26
Pride or Shame: Perceptions differ about each country’s handling of the crisis. My country’s handling of the crisis has My country’s handling of the crisis has made me feel prouder of my country. left me disappointed in my country. 39 61 68 32 54 46 65 35 42 58 39 61 29 70 Agree % Question: Which of the following statements do you agree with more? 27
On their handling of the crisis, only Germany and the Netherlands do well. Perception of governments’ handling of the crisis. Democratic Undemocratic Competent Incompetent Fair Unfair 47 54 41 59 46 54 70 31 72 28 69 31 54 46 53 47 57 43 60 40 70 30 68 32 42 58 41 59 42 58 55 46 39 60 59 41 37 64 40 59 Agree % Agree % Agree % Question: When you think of how the [NATIONALITY] government has managed the COVID-19 situation so far, which of the following opposing terms describes government action better? Please note: first question was not asked in the United States. 28
Most people feel that COVID-19 restrictions have been reasonable. The COVID-19 restrictions on our The COVID-19 restrictions on our lives have been completely lives have been completely reasonable and proportional. unreasonable and disproportional. 74 26 82 18 72 28 74 26 64 36 82 18 65 35 Agree % Question: Which of the following statements do you agree with more? 29
Only a minority of people are confident their government is able to deal with future crises. "I am confident in our current government's ability to tackle the challenges ahead of us." 67 60 Agree % 47 45 41 35 35 Question: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? 30
Everywhere, trust in local government has suffered much less than trust in national government. Trust in National Government Trust in Local Government Has worsened Has not changed Has improved Has worsened Has not changed Has improved 40 50 10 13 73 14 19 53 28 13 69 18 36 43 21 24 55 21 18 55 27 14 75 12 49 39 13 24 63 12 45 42 14 22 66 11 54 41 5 25 60 15 Numbers in % Numbers in % Question: Since this pandemic began, how have the following things changed, if at all? 31
Trust in the health system has increased more than trust in the welfare system, with some outliers. Trust in the Health System Trust in the Welfare System Has worsened Has not changed Has improved Has worsened Has not changed Has improved 22 58 20 19 65 16 12 52 36 17 58 25 16 45 39 19 51 31 10 52 38 18 64 18 29 54 17 29 58 13 9 48 44 18 61 20 35 52 13 33 60 7 Numbers in % Numbers in % Question: Since this pandemic began, how have the following things changed, if at all? 32
Heads of State: Germany, Italy and the Netherlands stand out in their approvals. Approval of Head of State 77 65 64 49 Approval in % 40 39 41 Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the way [HEAD OF GOVERNMENT / STATE] is doing his/her job? 33
In several countries, we see a desire for a strong leader, willing to break rules. “To put our country in order, we need a strong leader who is willing to break the rules.“ 78 71 70 58 59 55 47 Agree % Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? 34
Most believe government cares too little about essential workers and the vulnerable. Groups that government cares too little about… 75 FR GE 50 IT NL 25 PL UK 0 US e ff ly rs s e n s ts s s e P eopl al Sta El der o rk e wn er i kem hildre o ritie ig ran g c iti e w ner P eopl r dic w o l c in i o Poo Me The n tli ne s iness e opl e lage c ial m Imm le in b iness e alth y u P o a p u s Fro a ll b sc h o c or r Peo ig b W S m ith ni B lies w Eth i Fa m Question: Please indicate how much the [NATIONALITY] government seems to care about the following groups in its response to the 35 COVID-19 situation…
People believe their government cares too much about big business and the rich. Groups that government cares too much about… 75 FR GE 50 IT NL 25 PL UK 0 le rs s s s ren rs er l y ple ta f f rs me US eop w ne g rant o ritie c iti e il d wne l d eo l S orke ke P mi h E P a i lth y ess o Im l mi n n bi g g ec ess o The oor edic new p le l a n a i a P li o We si ra c i le oo l sin M ro n t Pe g bu o r e op c h ll bu F Bi nic P ith s S ma Et h w s m ilie Fa Question: Please indicate how much the [NATIONALITY] government seems to care about the following groups in its response to the COVID-19 situation… Not shown for the US: the unemployed, younger people, state government leaders, town government leaders, journalists, teachers, religious 36 leaders, long-haul truck drivers, farmers, postal workers.
More people believe the tone of public debate has worsened rather than improved. How has the tone of public debate changed during the crisis? Has worsened Has not changed Has improved 31 62 7 29 57 14 37 54 9 25 56 19 47 46 8 38 48 15 59 34 7 Numbers in % Question: Since this pandemic began, how have the following things changed in [COUNTRY], if at all? 37
People trust their relatives, experts and their doctor for information on COVID-19. Who do people trust for reliable information on COVID-19? 100 FR 75 GE IT 50 NL 25 PL UK 0 r ) US nds cin e c to nly um e ac t s ent der s ent ade rs dia d f r ie e di a l d o , PL o o n s c o nt er n m s l e a er n m l e i a l me an m on T c v es v n c i v es e an d ers p e (I ia y ou s an d ca l go us in na l go U nio o n so t c r p Po d d o B o e s ur r e la sc i en Yo u T he sm e rien you rl at i T ra d nce r Yo m e w e dia f o f th en l u e fro n ial m s es o f In f p e rts T he o c t a ti v e t i v Ex S e n t a ep res r es en R Re p Question: Please indicate to what extent, if at all, you trust these groups of people or institutions when it comes to accurate and reliable 38 information on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Citizens suspect their government of hiding things about COVID-19 and distrust the media’s motives. “The government is making this crisis “The government knows things about “The media seem to be pursuing their seem bigger than it is to push through COVID-19 that it is hiding from the own agenda rather than simply their own agenda.” public.” reporting the facts.” 75 63 65 65 65 Agree % Agree % Agree % 59 61 57 60 55 51 51 49 41 45 46 38 38 33 30 24 Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statements? 39
Few people publicly protested their government’s COVID-19 policies. Participation in Anti-Government Protest Attended a protest against COVID- Posted on social media against related government policies. COVID-19 government policies. Agree % Agree % 10 10 11 5 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 Question: In which of the following activities have you participated since the COVID-19 pandemic began, if any? 40
On mobile tracing apps, opinions vary on privacy more than on necessity. 100 Implementing a tracing app is a 80 necessary step. 60 Agree % 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 I trust that my privacy will be protected. Question: Many governments are debating or rolling out mobile tracing apps to manage and reduce the spread of COVID-19. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 41
Around 30% of people in most countries would not take a COVID-19 vaccine. Willingness to get vaccinated Not at all likely Not very likely Somewhat likely Very likely 12 21 35 32 12 18 31 40 13 16 36 35 9 16 34 42 16 21 33 31 6 11 28 54 17 13 25 45 Numbers in % Question: If a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 is developed, how likely would you be to get vaccinated? 42
IV. After COVID-19 43
Coming out of the crisis, most people fear greater division and an economic downturn. Worried that... 89 90 87 85 81 82 77 77 77 79 79 79 75 74 70 71 70 66 68 67 66 63 Numbers in % 61 59 57 55 55 51 Country will become less Citizens' freedoms will be The country will become further The economy will enter a severe politically stable permanently limited or reduced divided depression Question: To what extent are you currently worried or not worried that….?
People are concerned about the stability of their nation as well as the welfare of minorities. Worried that... 63 58 Numbers in % 54 52 55 50 49 50 47 46 60 59 42 56 53 38 52 47 Ethnic, racial or religious minorities will There will be rioting and looting in my There will be new conflicts between my suffer more than others from this crisis country country and others Question: To what extent are you currently worried or not worried that….? 45
Policy priorities: healthcare, employment and environment. Improving our health system 38 24 36 46 56 41 33 Reducing unemployment 34 19 48 30 35 30 26 Protecting climate and environment 33 31 20 24 25 28 15 Supporting individuals and families in greatest need 18 28 28 28 24 25 21 Supporting small business 28 21 29 20 23 20 19 Reducing immigration and refugee intake 26 23 21 20 12 21 17 Reducing economic inequality 22 19 23 16 15 18 15 Fighting crime and violence 20 23 13 20 11 25 27 Improving our education system 11 22 17 10 14 14 11 Protecting democratic rights and freedoms 9 14 8 12 18 10 19 Addressing racism in our society 8 17 5 13 7 19 25 Reducing terrorism 12 11 5 12 4 13 9 Improving cooperation between countries 6 10 5 9 8 8 Reducing political division 3 8 6 6 16 5 12 Strengthening European integration 4 7 7 5 8 Working towards gender equality 7 4 7 3 5 2 3 Protecting ethnic, racial and religious minorities 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 Question: Besides containing the COVID-19 pandemic, which of the following issues should the government prioritize addressing in the months ahead? Please select the top 3. 46
Populations in the hardest hit countries want change, but majorities do not expect that change to materialize. I mostly just want things to We should seize the I doubt that much will I think that significant changes return to normal, to how opportunity of COVID-19 to change in our country after will happen in our country they were before the make important changes to the pandemic is over. after the pandemic is over. pandemic. our country. 38 62 70 30 50 51 61 39 42 59 65 36 54 46 62 38 60 40 62 38 36 64 55 45 46 54 47 52 Agree % Agree % Question: Which of the following statements do you agree with more? 47
There is strong support for policies to bring jobs back from overseas and for a Green New Deal. Support for Visionary Policies 84 85 81 81 77 74 74 72 69 71 71 62 59 Numbers in % 57 56 54 52 48 49 42 44 Developing a “Green New Deal” that makes Introducing a “Universal Basic Income”, in Developing a plan to bring back large-scale government investments to which the government pays every citizen a manufacturing industries and jobs that have make our economy more environmentally monthly income without any further been moved overseas in recent decades. friendly. conditions. Question: When it comes to your actions during and after the crisis, would you personally be willing or not to do the following…
People are willing to make personal sacrifices for the recovery, to varying extents. 71 68 66 64 62 59 Numbers in % 58 58 53 54 54 47 49 49 44 46 46 44 43 42 41 40 35 37 33 34 33 30 30 31 28 23 24 21 19 Pay higher income taxes to Pay higher taxes on Pay higher prices for Accept restrictions on my Join a voluntary service help finance the economic gasoline or car ownership products made in country freedom of movement to program to help recovery of country to help protect the to save jobs in country protect the health of communities recover from environment others COVID-19 Question: When it comes to your actions during and after the crisis, would you personally be willing or not to do the following…
Nearly all believe that packages to rescue the private sector should be conditional. Conditions on Rescue Packages for the Private Sector 95 93 95 93 93 91 89 91 91 91 91 91 91 87 88 87 87 84 83 84 83 Support % Stop using overseas tax havens and pay the proper Guarantee fair wages for all their workers Commit to shifting jobs back from overseas to taxes in [COUNTRY] [COUNTRY] Question: The government is currently working on measures to help the economy and support businesses. What do you think: To what extent would you support or oppose requiring companies to fulfil the following criteria if they are to receive government aid? 50
Conditions on packages include environmental responsibility, tax havens and fair wages. Conditions on Rescue Packages for the Private Sector 89 90 91 90 88 86 87 85 82 78 78 73 69 Support % 64 Make commitments to reduce their carbon Put a ceiling on pay for senior executives emissions and protect the environment Question: The government is currently working on measures to help the economy and support businesses. What do you think: To what extent would you support or oppose requiring companies to fulfil the following criteria if they are to receive government aid? 51
People aspire to have their country be safer, fairer and more environmentally-friendly. The country should become more… Environmentally-friendly 38 31 26 24 31 22 Fair 33 21 28 36 19 18 Safe 25 22 32 25 21 18 Healthy 14 13 32 23 27 20 Democratic 17 20 22 31 12 10 United 14 23 11 26 18 29 Tolerant 19 10 18 25 19 14 Equal 8 15 21 12 20 25 Educated 13 22 6 13 21 21 Family-oriented 26 16 8 10 12 16 Hard-working 4 26 9 11 19 19 Patriotic 7 11 12 9 12 18 Traditional 11 7 14 6 8 10 Compassionate 10 3 10 3 17 22 Prosperous 3 12 9 10 9 9 Self-confident 13 10 6 8 5 3 Christian 5 7 6 7 5 13 52 Question: Which of the following qualities do you think [COUNTRY] should focus on the most? [COUNTRY] should become more…
Drops in emissions show the potential of climate policy, but most worry momentum will falter. “The drop in carbon emissions that was seen during “Commitment to protecting the the COVID-19 lockdown shows that we can reduce environment will slow down or stop.” our impact on the environment if we really want to.” 81 81 76 75 74 74 75 Worried % 67 Agree % 60 57 51 52 Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement?; To what extent are you currently worried or not worried that…? 53
Most people feel their government is not doing enough on the environment. On the environment, the government is doing… Not nearly Not doing Doing the right amount Doing too much Doing far too enough enough much 16 41 25 12 5 12 41 36 8 5 20 44 30 5 2 10 31 38 15 6 29 37 28 5 2 20 39 36 4 1 32 24 30 8 6 Numbers in % Question: Thinking about the current situation, which of the following statements do you agree with most? On the environment, the government is… 54
Views on welcoming migrants are mostly unchanged, but some have become more opposed since the pandemic began. Change in views on migration since COVID-19 Much more Slightly more No change, No change, Slightly more Much more in opposed opposed generally opposed generally in favor in favor favor 11 14 37 28 7 3 11 17 26 39 6 2 14 15 27 33 7 4 10 16 30 33 7 2 15 19 28 29 7 3 10 9 31 44 4 3 Numbers in % Question: Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, how have your views changed about accepting migrants into [COUNTRY], if at all? 55
V. Views on the European Union, European Policies and Social Cohesion in Europe This section includes data from France, Germany, Italy, Poland and The Netherlands and, where relevant, the United Kingdom, but not the United States. 56
EU membership is viewed in neutral or positive terms by most people. EU Membership is… A bad thing Neither a good nor a bad thing A good thing Don’t know 21 32 38 9% 16 27 50 7% 28 32 33 7% 20 29 42 10% 9 25 59 8% Numbers in % Question: Generally speaking, would you say that [COUNTRY’s] membership of the EU is…? 57
EU’s importance is expected to increase in the future. EU Membership will be… Less important Just as important as before More important 19 62 19 11 56 34 29 46 25 19 59 22 18 59 23 Numbers in % Question: In the coming years, [COUNTRY]’s membership in the EU will be... 58
Since the pandemic began, views of the EU have worsened rather than improved, especially amongst Italians. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, trust in the EU… Has worsened Has not changed Has improved 31 60 9 25 64 12 44 42 14 27 64 10 22 64 14 23 65 12 Numbers in % Question: Since this pandemic began, how have the following things changed in [COUNTRY], if at all? 59
But most agree that more European cooperation is the best way out of this crisis. Within the European Union, we Demands for solidarity between For our country, more For our country, more now need to do everything we European countries are European cooperation is the national control over our can to help countries in need. currently being pushed too far. best way out of this crisis. decision-making is the best way out of this crisis. 64 36 59 41 66 33 63 36 67 32 57 43 53 47 53 45 71 29 68 31 Agree % Agree % Question: Which of the following statements do you agree with more? Numbers for “do not know” not indicated 60
The largest group in every country supports taking on common European debt to fund the recovery. "A European Reconstruction Fund to help economic recovery in the European Union, for which the European Commission takes on common debt to be paid back by member states." Support Do not support Don’t know 61 15 24 50 26 24 66 15 19 48 31 21 52 21 27 Numbers in % Question: There is currently debate about different political measures. Would you support or oppose the following proposals? 61
Most people see the need for international cooperation to solve this and future crises. This crisis shows we need to work more This crisis shows we can’t rely on other closely with other countries and international countries and international institutions for institutions to address major challenges like support when we face major challenges like pandemics and climate change. pandemics and climate change. 64 36 75 25 62 38 71 29 73 27 67 33 Agree % Question: Which of the following statements do you agree with more? 62
VI. Message Testing 63
Different Approaches to Governance A message of duty and penalties resonates better than appeals to freedom and personal responsibility. This crisis should be fought like we are in a war. Everyone has a duty to follow the rules, and those 69 61 72 60 67 70 58 who do not should be penalized at once. In this crisis, we should have faith in people’s sense of responsibility. That means that we should not use 60 54 63 56 66 54 58 coercion to enforce the rules. Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? (One message tested per respondent.) Average agreement on a scale from 0 (no agreement) to 100 (full agreement) 64
Health vs. Economy Prioritizing health and life above all else appeals more than prioritizing the economy to any degree. In this crisis, we cannot put a price tag on human life; each life deserves every possible protection— whether young or old, healthy or sick, citizen or 79 79 81 74 81 83 immigrant. In this crisis, we cannot bankrupt our entire economy in order to keep a small number of people from getting ill. It’s impossible to save everyone. 54 51 48 63 62 59 In this crisis, we have a responsibility to all groups: those at risk of disease as well as those at risk of poverty. We must strike a balance. 71 73 78 71 75 77 Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? (One message tested per respondent.) Average agreement on a scale from 0 (no agreement) to 100 (full agreement) 65
Environment vs. Economy Enacting both environmental and economic reform receives more support than either alone. In an emergency like this, we should take care of our economic interests, instead of burdening ourselves with costly environmental rules and regulations that 56 53 57 60 55 51 will destroy jobs. The future climate crisis will be much worse than this pandemic. We should seize the moment now to speed up our action on climate change, even if there 66 61 68 59 67 66 are short-term costs. As we recover from the economic impact of COVID- 19, we should build up a better economy that does less harm to the environment. 74 74 80 69 75 77 Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? (One message tested per respondent.) Average agreement on a scale from 0 (no agreement) to 100 (full agreement) 66
Environment: Now vs. Later Saving businesses from collapse gets support with or without environmental considerations. As the government currently works to help restore the economy, it should most of all make sure that 64 63 74 62 71 68 money is spent to make our economy greener in the long run. As the government currently works to help restore the economy, it should most of all make sure that 75 69 79 68 75 71 money is spent to save our current businesses and industries from collapse. As the government currently works to help restore the economy, it should make sure that money is spent to save our businesses and to make them 74 66 75 62 71 72 greener in the long run. Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? (One message tested per respondent.) Average agreement on a scale from 0 (no agreement) to 100 (full agreement) 67
Recovery Funds: Local vs. National People want economic recovery funds to be shared between local and national governments. Economic recovery funds should be managed by the national government, not local governments, because the national government will be more 53 54 57 63 46 56 effective at saving jobs. Economic recovery funds should be channeled to local governments, who will be more effective than the national government in saving jobs. 65 61 64 58 67 59 Economic recovery funds should be allocated in a shared effort between national and local levels of government. 66 68 71 63 73 69 Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? (One message tested per respondent.) Average agreement on a scale from 0 (no agreement) to 100 (full agreement) 68
European Cooperation There is not a universal view on how EU nations should balance their internal and external needs. In our handling of COVID-19, we should not act alone. We should work with our European neighbors to help the people with the greatest needs, wherever 65 65 68 61 72 they may be. In our handling of COVID-19, we must protect our own people first. Our government should serve us, not other Europeans. 68 60 71 67 67 In our handling of COVID-19, we can look after our own people while also being a responsible member of the European community. We should do both at 68 67 64 59 73 the same time. Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? (One message tested per respondent.) Average agreement on a scale from 0 (no agreement) to 100 (full agreement) 69
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