THE LOCAL STATE WE'RE IN PWC'S ANNUAL LOCAL GOVERNMENT SURVEY 2018 - JUNE 2018 - WWW.PWC.CO.UK/LOCALGOV
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Contents Executive summary 1 Introduction 4 Continued austerity: council resilience and commercial acumen 5 Making the most of new technologies: digital disruption and the use of data 9 Reforming and transforming local public services 15 Place based growth: collaboration, barriers and the impact of Brexit 19 The new local government landscape: is devolution stalling? 23 Agenda for action 27 Methodology 28 About us 29 The Local State We’re In – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018
Executive summary Key findings Fears of failure rising: a need for Making the most of new There is a sense in this year’s survey organisational resilience and technologies: digital disruption that, while there has long been a commerical acumen and data analytics ‘cliff edge’ approaching for council Austerity continues but seven in ten There is a strongly felt opportunity finances, expectations of crisis and (72%) of council respondents to our of an intelligent digital dividend, failure are close to a tipping point. survey remain confident of delivering which extends beyond saving costs: savings next year without impacting nine in ten survey respondents expect Our latest ‘Local State We’re In’ on quality of service or outcomes. digital will enable them to engage survey of Local Authority Chief However, a cliff edge remains in sight communities in new ways and 80% Executives and Leaders shows that in the medium term as confidence expect digital to enable improvements while councils have coped well in the plunges to one third (33%) when to service delivery. face of continuing austerity and the considering the three year outlook, and uncertainty of Brexit, there are now one fifth (19%) when considering the But there are challenges to deliver real fears of failure looking ahead. next five years. this dividend with a new realism from councils on their capability to make The scale of the challenge is indeed There is also a much increased fear the most of new digital technology. significant but also with every of failure, with almost three quarters Only 3 in 10 survey respondents threat comes an opportunity. Digital (74%) of respondents expecting that feel that their council is confidently disruption, Artificial Intelligence some councils will get into serious embracing new technologies like AI (AI) and robotics have the potential financial crisis in the next year (54% and robotics (similar to the public’s to transform local public services last year). view). There is a particular gap in data even if they equally also pose threats and analytics with only half of our such as from cyber attacks. Given these pressures, there is a greater survey respondents confident in their than ever need to build organisational councils’ capabilities in this area. The In response, councils need not only resilience: respondents pinpoint pace of technological change and the greater organisational resilience particular gaps in supply chain complexity of implementation means and agility, but also enhanced management and commercial that the potential of new technologies capabilities to exploit the potential acumen. With further closures or is not being maximised. of data and analytics and a focus service reductions likely in many on partnership working in order areas, engaging the public on the In addition, more needs to be done to to deliver place based growth and reasons, and addressing their concerns, shift behaviour to enable people to get public service reform. is another pressing issue. Over half the most from the technology available. (56%) of the public we surveyed were This includes moving more of the public concerned about the impact that online: almost two thirds (62%) of the service reductions and closures will public polled had not interacted with have on them personally and 61% were their council digitally in the past month concerned about the impact on their and 20% were not aware of any council local community. services being available digitally. These proportions have hardly changed from last year suggesting a major challenge for councils to encourage their service users to make the digital shift. There is also work to be done to make council staff more cyber savvy, with only 41% of our survey respondents confident that council employees exhibit robust cyber security behaviours at work. This highlights a continuing potential area of vulnerability for councils. 1
Reforming and transforming Delivering good, place based The new local local public services growth with Brexit around government landscape: is Beyond technology, place based the corner devolution stalling? transformation is seen to involve Collaboration is also a feature of With so much dealmaking in collaboration across a place with place based growth, especially with government focused out towards the a need to focus on, and measure, Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs). EU, it may seem that there has been outcomes and the related costs. Council priorities for place based too little focus and capacity to deliver Councils feel they are making progress growth focus on the key enablers the next stage of the much promised in this area. Six out of ten survey – skills, infrastructure (housing ‘devolution revolution’. respondents agree that councils should and transport) as well as inward be more responsible for facilitating investment. However, significant This appears to be confirmed in our outcomes rather than delivering barriers remain in each of these survey where there is a perception services, and a similar proportion areas, with 72% of our respondents that devolution has stalled, with now feel able to measure outcomes identifying lack of investment in only 13% of respondents agreeing and assess impact which is key to infrastructure as a key barrier, 61% a that their council will have more delivering place based transformation. lack of influence over skills and 60% a powers and responsibilities in 2022, lack of affordable or suitable housing. similar to 12% last year and well However, taking the example of down from 33% in May 2015 when health and social care integration, With Brexit next year, respondents the Conservative government led by while appetite for reform remains, see high impacts on their councils David Cameron came into power. barriers to integration are apparent for trade, Foreign Direct Investment when seeking to deliver joined up (FDI) and funding. Yet only 12% public services across a place with of respondents see their council mixed views on engagement e.g. on proactively promoting city-to-city the Sustainability and Transformation links overseas to find investment Partnership (STP) process. The and promote trade for their local barriers to further integration economies. In addition, 74% are not centre on institutional, strategic and confident that central government cultural differences between the will engage with cities and local NHS and councils. government in reshaping regional investment and regeneration funds beyond Brexit. The impact of Brexit is also a source of uncertainty for the public: almost half (46%) of the public neither agree nor disagree that their local area will benefit from leaving the EU. The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 2
Expectations of further devolution It is crucial that councils now respond to six key challenges: have hit rock bottom, with only one in ten respondents expecting Defining, developing and delivering sustainable, inclusive place based to be part of a Combined Authority growth strategies and securing a clearer economic identity to attract, and by 2021. Barriers to further retain, talent and investment. devolution are seen to be jointly the mayoral model and local political Working across places and securing the right public service reforms to relationships as well as a lack of underpin place based transformation and the delivery of key outcomes by potential powers to be gained. redesigning services and building new partnerships. The new cohort of metro mayors Focusing on building the skills, capabilities and processes to secure may yet give devolution a jump start organisational resilience, being prepared to manage key risks but as their collective impact starts to also being agile to respond to, and recover from, unforeseen events be felt but this will take time as the and challenges. public increasingly understands the role of a mayor and can see the Developing commercial skills and business acumen, being prepared to impact that they can have. work outside council organisational boundaries and seamlessly across the public and private sectors in order to achieve better returns on investments Key areas of focus for and better value from public/private sector arrangements. the future As councils look to the next Embracing the value of data as an asset and investing in data analytics Spending Review in 2019 and capabilities to inform decision-making and generate insight, drive smarter, beyond, there are new opportunities, earlier interventions and influence behaviours, manage demand and such as AI and digital, as well as reduce cost. risks to manage, from cyber to the Harnessing digital disruption and new technologies such as AI to change shift away from grant funding. traditional ways of working, creating new value and better serve the needs Councils have proved their ability to of communities. deal with significant challenges in the past and will need to continue to adapt and innovate as they enter a post-Brexit world. 3
Introduction In early 2018, we conducted our eighth annual survey of local This report presents our survey authority Chief Executives and Leaders across the UK. We also findings and focusses on a number of key themes for local government over commissioned online polling of a representative sample of over the next year: 2,000 members of the UK public to find out their views on their council’s performance, role and purpose. • Continued austerity and the need for resilience and greater Our aim with these surveys is to However, the financial sustainability commerical acumen: What is the explore how councils are dealing with of councils is under real pressure. scale of the challenge for the next the changing circumstances in which As the National Audit Office (NAO) year and into the next decade? Do they find themselves. This includes highlights,1 councils face continuing councils have the capabilities they continuing financial pressures and an acute pressures. There has been a need for the future? ever evolving political and economic near halving in real terms of central • Digital and data: To what extent landscape but also new opportunities government funding between are councils embracing digital – tapping into the power of data and 2010/11 and 2017/18 and a real term to engage citizens and/or make analytics, riding the digital wave reduction of nearly a third (28.6%) savings? Will AI and robotics offer a and embracing place based growth in local authority spending power route to transforming services and and transformation. over the same period (when including lowering costs? Do councils have Council Tax). With a fundamental the skills they need to make the Context shift also forthcoming in the way most of data, and to keep it secure? Our annual local government local government is financed, councils Is cyber a growing worry? surveys have tracked the remarkable must continue to be resilient and more • Public service reform and transformation of local government commercial to be fit for the future. transformation: What progress over the past eight years. Whereas is being made on health and in our first Local State. We’re In There are also uncertain economic social care integration? What survey confidence in the future was times ahead, not least due to Brexit are the barriers to wider public at a low, over the years councils have which will impact on regions to varying service reform? demonstrated their resilience in the degrees depending on the nature of the • Place based growth: What are face of deep austerity and their ability future UK-EU relationship. Yet there the key priorities for local growth? to innovate and transform in the face of are also grounds for optimism. The UK What impact is Brexit having on their changing circumstances. economy has not stalled and indeed is local economies? What will be projected to continue to grow across all the impact of the shift to business regions over the next year.2 rate retention? • The new local government landscape: Where next for mayors and Combined Authorities? What are the prospects for further devolution, including fiscal powers? 1 ‘Financial sustainability of local authorities 2018’, NAO, 8 March 2018 2 ‘UK Economic Outlook’, PwC, March 2018 https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-outlook.html The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 4
Continued austerity: council resilience and commercial acumen Fiscal austerity continues but local authorities remain relatively confident in the short term. Indeed, 72% of respondents agree that they will be able to make the necessary financial savings without seriously impacting the quality of service delivery and outcomes over the next year (a slight increase compared to 68% last year). However, a cliff edge remains in sight Figure 1: Confidence in making savings without impacting quality of services in the medium term, as confidence delivered or outcomes plunges to one third (33%) when considering the three year outlook, 100 and one fifth (19%) when considering 90 the next five years. There is also a 80 much increased fear of failure, with 70 three quarters (74%) of respondents 60 72 expecting that some councils will get % 50 into serious financial crisis in the next 40 year (54% last year). 30 Given these pressures, there is a 20 33 greater than ever need to build 10 19 organisational resilience: respondents 0 Next year Next 3 years Next 5 years pinpoint particular gaps in supply chain management and commercial acumen. With further closures or service reductions likely in many Over a quarter of councils lack Longer term, the outlook is more areas, engaging the public on the confidence about the year ahead challenging with only 33% of reasons, and addressing their concerns, While the majority of all respondents respondents feeling confident about the is another pressing issue. Over half to our survey remain confident about next three years and, in the next five (56%) of the public we surveyed were the year ahead, over a quarter (28%) years, only 19% confident that they will concerned about the impact that service lack confidence that they will be be able to make the necessary savings reductions and closures will have on able to make the necessary savings without seriously impacting the quality them personally (similar to last year, at while delivering quality services and of service delivery and outcomes. 53%) and 61% were concerned about outcomes over the next year (Figure 1). the impact on their local community While this is slightly lower than last This follows a similar pattern to our (consistent with 60% last year). year (32%), it is still a concern that surveys in recent years, where the ‘cliff such a significant proportion have fears edge’ always seems to be three to five about their ability to continue to deliver years away (see Figure 2). services in the next year without impacting on quality of services or outcomes. 5
Figure 2: ‘Cliff edge’ constant over time We are confident that we will be able to make the necessary financial savings without seriously impacting the quality of services delivery and outcomes in the (% agree) 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Next Year Next 3 years Next 5 years The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 6
Financial failure is anticipated Figure 3: Confidence in the sector by most in the next year Some councils will get into serious financial crisis in the...(% agree) To date, councils have managed to find a way through the challenges they face, 100 although there now seem to be growing 90 concerns when it comes to considering 95 93 80 the sector as a whole rather than their 70 own council. 60 74 % The proportion of all respondents who 50 believe that some councils will get into 40 serious financial difficulty in the next 30 year has leapt from just over half last 20 year to almost three quarters (74%) 10 this year (Figure 3). Meanwhile over half (53%) think that some councils 0 Next year Next 3 years Next 5 years will fail to deliver the essential services residents require over the next year (Figure 4). Figure 4: A fear of failure Some councils will fail to deliver essential services in the...(% agree) Following a similar pattern to before, confidence in the sector over the next 100 three and five years falls notably, with 90 almost all of our respondents fearing 80 that some councils will get into serious 84 70 79 financial crisis in the next three to five 60 years, and 84% believing that some % councils will fail to deliver essential 50 services in the next five years (similar 40 53 to last year). 30 20 Taken together, this is a stark reminder 10 of the significant challenges ahead for councils, with austerity still casting a 0 Next year Next 3 years Next 5 years long shadow over the sector. 7
The view of the public Furthermore, less than a fifth (19%) In particular, only 41% of respondents Our public polling indicates that of the public surveyed think that their feel that their council is well equipped there is also continuing opposition to council has become more efficient with supply chain management cuts with almost half (48%) of those over the past five years – the same capabilities (although this is higher surveyed opposing the idea that their proportion as last year. A similar than last year’s 33%), while just local council needs to reduce or close proportion (16%) think that their over half feel they are well equipped services or facilities (compared to 45% council has become more effective over with commissioning and contract last year). A similar proportion (49%) the same time period. management capabilities and feel that their council has not kept them commercial acumen (e.g. driving well informed about the reasons for Building organisational resilience commercial income and realising the closures or service reductions over the and commercial acumen full value of owned assets). past 12 months. With significant challenges ahead, councils need to build organisational Investing in capabilities in these Despite low levels of awareness, there resilience and develop new skills areas will be important in building are concerns about the impact of and commercial acumen in order to council resilience and developing council closures or reductions. Over be effective. While council survey the commercial acumen that will be half (56%) of the public surveyed respondents are confident of their essential for success in future. were concerned about the impact that capabilities in areas such as leadership reductions and closures will have on (95%) and strategic financial them personally (similar to last year, at management (96%), they appear to 53%) and 61% were concerned about feel under-equipped in a number of the impact on their local community significant areas that will be essential (consistent with 60% last year). With for their effective operation in the further closures or reductions still future (Figure 5). likely in many areas, engaging the public on the reasons for these changes and addressing their concerns remains an ongoing issue. Figure 5: Commercial capabilities My council is well equipped with the following capabilities Commercial acumen 56 23 22 Tough questions on organisational resilience Information, governance and records managemen 71 20 9 1. Is your council confident in its approach to reducing costs, 56 37 7 developing innovative solutions Contract management to commissioning and supply chain management? Talent management 59 32 9 2. Are you building the right skills, capabilities and processes to Leadership 95 4 1 secure organisational resilience and manage key organisational risks? 3. Does your council have the Commissioning 53 33 14 commercial skills and acumen needed to optimise revenue and Supply chain management 41 39 20 realise the value of your assets? 4. Do you have a plan for attracting, developing and retaining a Risk and portfolio management 74 21 5 workforce with the skills and capabilities that you will need Financial management 96 2 1 in future? 5. How well is your council engaging with residents and communities on 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 service reductions, closures and the % future shape of the council? Strongly agree/agree Neutral Strongly disagree/disagree The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 8
Making the most of new technologies: digital disruption and the use of data There is a strongly felt opportunity in this year’s survey of an intelligent digital dividend, which extends beyond saving costs: nine in ten survey respondents expect digital will enable them to engage communities in new ways and 80% expect digital to enable improvements to service delivery. But there are challenges to deliver Figure 6: The digital dividend – engagement and service delivery this dividend with a new realism from Digital will enable us to (% agree) councils on their capability to make the most of new digital technology. 100 Only 3 in 10 survey respondents feel that their council is confidently 90 embracing new technologies like AI 80 85 87 83 80 80 and robotics (similar to the public’s view). There is a particular gap in 60 63 data and analytics with only half of % 58 survey respondents confident in their 54 40 councils’ capabilities in this area. The pace of technological change and the 20 complexity of implementation means that the potential of new technologies is not being maximised. 0 2016 2017 2018 In addition, more needs to be done to Significantly reduce costs Improve service delivery Engage in new ways with communities and residents shift behaviour to enable people to get the most from the technology available. This includes moving more of the public online: almost two thirds (62%) of the Delivering the intelligent There is also an opportunity to use public polled had not interacted with digital dividend digital to engage staff, suppliers their council digitally in the past month This year we are seeing the and residents in new ways, as we’ve and 20% were not aware of any council continuation of a trend that has found in our work with the London services being available digitally. These been notable over recent years with Borough of Waltham Forest (see Box). proportions have hardly changed from a further shift in the expectations of However, whether we are at a tipping last year suggesting a major challenge what digital can deliver. While council point in the delivery of the vision of for councils to encourage their service respondents still agree that digital will smart cities is less clear, with only 25% users to make the digital shift. enable them to reduce costs (63%) and of respondents planning to become a improve service delivery (80%), there smart city. There is also work to be done to is growing recognition that digital will make council staff more cyber enable them to engage in new ways savvy, with only 41% of our survey with communities and residents, up respondents confident that council from 54% in 2016 and 83% in 2017 to employees exhibit robust cyber 90% in 2018 (Figure 6). security behaviours at work. This highlights a continuing potential area of vulnerability for councils. 9
Figure 7: Embracing new technologies 3 My council is confidently embracing the opportunities new technologies offer for better local public services (% agree) 80 70 76 60 61 50 % 40 30 30 20 25 26 23 10 0 2016 2017 2018 Survey respondents Public A digital divide? Indeed, for the first time, there is Digital disruption and new alignment between the confidence technologies like AI and robotics of council respondents and that of are enabling local government to the public, with only about a quarter transform everything from the in both cases agreeing that their back office to how they engage council is ‘confidently embracing’ the with residents and communities. opportunities that new technologies This year, it appears that council offer (Figure 7). This may also leaders are recognising this and, reflect a growing realisation by as a consequence, are also much councils that digital embraces many less confident that they are fully challenges such as AI and robotics embracing the potential to improve which have increasingly come to the Intelligent Digital: an local services using new technology. forefront when the potential of new innovation challenge technologies is discussed (see Box). As part of their new digital strategy Waltham Forest Council Robotics in Haringey is planning to enhance their use of digital to work smarter and Like all Councils, the London Adjustment process and adding improve residents’ lives. Borough of Haringey needs to make capacity to the Benefits Department savings. The Council was therefore by freeing up the staff from the To help, the council utilised looking for a solution where staff repetitive, time consuming Rent PwC's Innovation Crowdsourcing would be freed up from the basic Adjustments process. service to ask their people, 'How tasks to focus on the increasingly can digital improve our ways complex cases that were causing a The results included processing of working and enhance our backlog across the Council. time reduced from over 10 minutes residents' lives?'. In the space of a per previous staff interaction to a three week competition, one fifth We helped the Council identify robot that processes the claims in of their workforce submitted 90 where it was possible for Robotic less than a minute, 24 hours a day ideas and voted on which they Process Automation (RPA) to and an equivalent saving of c5 Full- thought were the best ones. make a difference e.g. by reducing Time Equivalents over a period of 4 error rates and increasing staff months which is now re-allocated to This insight and ideation not productivity. This included more complex assessments. only enhanced the content of designing and implementing an the strategy – it empowered automated robotic solution for the their people to have a say on the Council’s Housing Association Rent council's plans for digital. 3 This year the question was changed from recent years with the italicised text added in the following statement: “My council is confidently embracing the opportunities new technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics offer for better local public services.” As such, results are not directly comparable to previous years. The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 10
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Digital interaction with There is still, however, a growing public Figure 9: Channel shift the public appetite to have more council services We also asked the public about the available online, particularly among ways in which they currently engage those who already use digital services I would prefer with their council (Figure 8). Over a (Figure 9). Almost half (48%) say they more council 48% services to be fifth accessed information on services would prefer more online services, available online online (up slightly from 18% last year) with a clear preference among younger while 10% have used digital platforms people (59% of 18-34 year olds) to pay for services (9% last year). compared to older generations (39% of 55+ years). However, almost two thirds (62%) had not interacted with their council A notable proportion of respondents I prefer to interact with my council digitally in the past month and a fifth to our public poll also still prefer to 31% in person (20%) are not aware of any council interact with their council in person services being available digitally. These (31%) or by telephone (28%) although proportions have hardly changed from both are lower than last year (35% and last year suggesting a major challenge 30% respectively). for councils to encourage their service users to make the digital shift. I prefer to interact with my council by 28% telephone Figure 8: Digital interaction with the public Accessed information on services digitally (e.g.website, app etc.) 21% 10% Used a digital platform to pay for public None of these sector services (e.g. council tax) 62% 8% Used a digital platform to interact with the customer service department 7% Gave feedback on services via a digital platform 6% 5% 2% Engaged with others members of the public (e.g. on an online forum) Other (please specify) Engaged with your local council vis social media (e.g. Twitter, Facebook etc.) Respondents were able to select multiple responses for their use of online services The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 12
Doing more with data Indeed, our survey also suggests that Figure 10: Data and analytics Transformation of public services there is a capability gap in terms of data requires not only new digital processes analytics. While councils feel relatively but also the ability to create new confident in their business intelligence Say their council insights from data generated. It is and information governance is utilising data therefore significant to note that data capabilities, at 64% and 71% 46% analysis to inform and analytics is another key area that respectively, only 48% are confident of decision-making councils are beginning to tap into their capabilities when it comes to data and strategy and one where there is growing use analytics, although this has increased (Figure 10). from 32% last year (Figure 11). Almost half of all council survey Of course, the new General Data respondents (46%) agree that their Protection Regulation (GDPR) also council uses data analytics effectively poses additional challenges for to inform decision-making and councils, although only one in twenty strategy, up from a third (33%) last (5%) of the respondents surveyed felt year. However, this also highlights unprepared for its introduction. that there is still significant scope for councils to interpret and use data more effectively in areas such as anticipating and managing demand. Figure 11: Data and information capabilities My council is well equipped with the following capabilities Information, governance and records management 71 20 9 Data analytics 48 37 15 Business intelligence 64 32 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Strongly agree/agree Neutral Strongly disagree/disagree 13
Cyber risks In response to cyber threats, over Clearly, new digital and data half (58%) of council respondents to Tough questions on digital approaches offer great opportunities our survey are confident that their disruption and data 1. Do you have a clear vision of for local authorities, but it is important approach to digital security will cope how new digital technologies can to put in place the relevant safeguards with cyber threats (Figure 12). Almost engage residents and communities for privacy and also to ensure cyber two thirds (63%) say they actively and enable the delivery of outcomes and information security. monitor people-related cyber security (including becoming a ‘smart city’)? risks, but only 41% are confident 2. Are you harnessing emergent digital This is a concern for the public, with that their employees exhibit robust technologies to create new value, only around a third of our public cyber security behaviours at work, experience and insight? 3. Are you investing in your capability polling respondents trusting their highlighting a continuing potential around data, insight and predictive council to manage and share their data area of vulnerability for the majority analysis and using this to drive and information appropriately (35%) of councils. smarter, earlier interventions? and to protect their personal data and 4. Have you the business intelligence information from cyber attacks (37%). and real time information you This is perhaps unsurprising given need to manage demand and recent high profile examples such as the resource deployment? 5. Do you have the appropriate NHS ransomware attacks in 2017. governance and controls in place to safeguard data and respond to cyber risks? Figure 12: Cyber security Considering cyber security, my council... Actively monitors people-related cyber security risks 63 26 11 Is confident that our employees exhibit robust cyber security behaviours at work 41 44 15 Is confident that its approach to 58 33 9 digital security will cope with cyber threats 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Strongly agree/agree Neutral Strongly disagree/disagree The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 14
Reforming and transforming local public services Beyond technology, place based transformation is seen to involve collaboration across a place with a need to focus on, and measure, outcomes and the related costs. Councils feel they are making progress in this area. Six out of ten survey respondents agree that councils should be more responsible for facilitating outcomes rather than delivering services, and a similar proportion now feel able to measure outcomes and assess impact which is key to delivering place based transformation. However, taking the example of health and social care integration, while the Figure 13: Delivering outcomes appetite for reform remains, barriers to integration are apparent when seeking to deliver joined up public services 70 across a place with mixed views on engagement e.g. on the STP process. 60 The barriers to further integration 58 58 60 centre on institutional, strategic and 50 51 cultural differences between the NHS 40 44 and councils. % 30 Delivering and measuring outcomes 20 25 Councils recognise their role in 10 facilitating outcomes, and feel they are becoming better at measuring 0 them and the related costs. The same Councils should be We fully understand We fully understand the more responsible for how to measure cost of securing outcomes proportion of respondents (58%) facilitating outcomes outcomes and assess (on a multi-organisational agree that councils should be more rather than delivering the impact we have basis) across our area service solutions responsible for facilitating outcomes rather than delivering service solutions 2017 2018 as last year (Figure 13). 15
In terms of delivering public service In terms of delivering place based reform, a similar proportion (60%) transformation, perhaps unsurprisingly feel they now understand how to the key partners are predominantly measure outcomes and assess the seen to come from the public sector, impact they have while a half (51%) including other local public service feel their council fully understands the providers in education and health cost of securing outcomes on a multi- (see Figure 14). organisational basis across their area. However, over half of respondents It’s worth noting that there is less also see Small and Medium-sized expectation that structural change will Enterprises (SMEs) and third sector drive the reform agenda. Only about organisations as part of the approach, a third (35%) of respondents expect perhaps building on the so-called that significant reorganisation of two Preston model supporting procurement tier local government will happen by from locally based organisations. In 2020 (compared to 43% in last year’s contrast, fewer respondents see their survey) although since we completed councils looking to collaborate with big this survey the Minister has stated that business or trade bodies. "there is a clear space and scope for unitary authorities." Figure 14: Key partners in transformation The following are key partners to collaborate with the council and deliver place based transformation 80 70 75 60 65 63 59 59 58 50 53 51 50 % 40 41 38 30 20 10 0 s s s ns s es / C ers Es s or r e ip ge e er ie th ct iti ni tio SM BI nc sh rtn ce b le O se rs pa er m sa ge er ol pa ve m ha m ird C ni rtn ta ni co om . C a or n Th Pa U rg en io ct e C .g O at nm at se e of s e uc S is or ic H er pr e Ed rp N bl di ov er co Pu bo er nt G e rth lE s rg s ca Fu ne La Lo si Bu The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 16
Health and social In terms of the future of integration, a care integration much higher proportion of respondents The transformation of public services this year feel confident that the locally can be seen in the case of health extension of the social care precept will and social care integration. Four fifths help address the social care funding (81%) of our survey respondents agree challenge (38% compared with 13% that integration will have a positive last year), 32% believe their council impact on health outcomes, but only will be part of an accountable care 28% think it will support economic organisation within the next three growth or generate council savings years (same as last year), while 39% (Figure 15). (up from 32% last year) agree that their council has been fully engaged in the In terms of moving the health and STP process (Figure 16). social care agenda forward, in this year’s survey only 19% of respondents (compared to 25% last year and 60% in 2016) said that a devolution deal is part of their strategy for health and social care integration. This perhaps reflects how the pipeline of devolution deals has stalled over the past year. Figure 15: Integrating care – a case study in reforming local public services Further integration of health and social care will... Support economic growth 28 35 37 Generate savings for my council 28 25 47 Have a positive impact on health 81 17 1 outcomes for the local population 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Strongly agree/agree Neutral Strongly disagree/disagree Figure 16: The future health and care integration The extension of the social care precept will help address our social care funding challenge 38 20 42 My council will be part of an accountable 32 26 42 care organisation within the next 3 years My council has been fully engaged in the STP process 39 26 35 A devolution deal is part of our strategy for 19 27 54 health and social care intergration 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Strongly agree/agree Neutral Strongly disagree/disagree 17
Views on barriers to integrating care, however, highlight the ongoing conflict Making money work better in the NHS of approaches to strategy and delivery PwC recently worked with the Healthcare Financial Management in the health and adult social care Association (HFMA) to consider future financial flows within systems and a perceived lack of focus the health and care system in England. We spoke to NHS finance within the NHS system on outcomes professionals, non-executive directors and NHS leaders across the and prevention (see Box). country and, with the help of the HFMA, we surveyed over 200 finance professionals to understand what they think about the way money works in the healthcare system and how it could be improved. 76% felt the current funding structures in the NHS are not fit for purpose. We found an integrated model of care is undoubtedly the right direction for the UK healthcare service and made several recommendations, aimed at re-aligning financial flows with the emerging place based architecture of the system, giving systems better long term line of sight over their funding envelope, and ensuring that money is directed towards incentivising better patient outcomes. For more information, visit www.pwc.co.uk/healthcare “Institutional “A realistic view on “The STP Footprint “The focus of parochialism and need not one assessed does not relate to the discussions continues a lack of focus on on the basis of local communities to be about acute outcomes in the NHS” available finance” it should be there to health and social care serve” issues rather than preventative policies such as better housing, improved leisure offer” “Self-interest of “Lack of a strategic “I am not convinced “The continuing individual CCGs and approach by NHS it'structural focus on funding the NHS Trusts” partners who can only integration that's acute part of NHS plan forward for a needed. We need to healthcare, at the year at most” reset the objectives expense of community of our health and based/preventative care systems and services” incentivise radical shifts to keep people well and at home in vibrant communities” Tough questions on public service reform 1. Do you have a good 3. To what extent do you need understanding of the business to consider reorganisation, and operating models needed to for example, creating deliver key economic and social new unitary authorities or objectives and outcomes across combined authorities? organisational boundaries in 4. Are your delivery models fit your place? for purpose, including being 2. Is your council fully engaged tax efficient? in health and social 5. How well are you collaborating care integration? with other public sector partners to manage, rationalise and share your property and other assets across a place? The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 18
Place based growth: collaboration, barriers and the impact of Brexit Collaboration is also a feature of place based growth, What should a good especially with Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs). Council local industrial strategy priorities for place based growth focus on the key enablers – comprise?4 skills, infrastructure (housing and transport) as well as inward A successful local industrial investment. However, significant barriers remain in each of these strategy, like the national one, areas, with 72% of our respondents identifying lack of investment needs to be based on a consistent long term approach to policy in infrastructure as a key barrier, 61% a lack of influence over aimed at improving the local skills and 60% a lack of affordable or suitable housing. economic conditions affecting businesses across all sectors – a With Brexit next year, respondents Collaboration for growth so called ‘horizontal’ approach. see high impacts on their councils Delivering growth requires the It also needs to set out how for trade, FDI and funding. Yet only interaction of councils with many places will choose their priorities 12% of respondents see their council local partners. In terms of working for investment to deliver local proactively promoting city-to-city with others to deliver place based economic success. links overseas to find investment growth, LEPs and other public sector and promote trade for their local agencies are both identified as key In addition, the outcomes from economies. In addition, 74% are not partners by just over three quarters of key policies need to be delivered confident that central government survey respondents. efficiently and effectively so that will engage with cities and local economic benefits are realised government in reshaping regional Indeed, for the first time LEPs are in a timely fashion, particularly investment and regeneration funds marginally the most important, when it comes to infrastructure beyond Brexit. perhaps reflecting their now central (given the long lead times). This role in formulating Local Industrial means identifying interventions The impact of Brexit is also a source Strategies in non-mayoral areas. and making sound evidence- of uncertainty for the public: almost A large majority of those surveyed based investment decisions which half (46%) of the public neither agree (84%) see their council working with deliver value, realise economic nor disagree that their local area will their local LEP(s) to develop a local and social impacts and outcomes benefit from leaving the EU. industrial strategy (spanning skills, as well as manage risks. infrastructure, innovation and business growth) and deliver a joined up Drawing on PwC’s submission approach to local growth (see Box). on the Industrial Strategy Green Paper,5 any local industrial strategy needs to span at least three key dimensions: skills and education; infrastructure; and innovation and business growth. 4 Drawn from‘Good Growth for Cities 2017’, PwC/Demos, November 2017 https://www.pwc.co.uk/ industries/government-public-sector/good-growth.html 5 A modern industrial strategy to underpin UK economic success', PwC, 2018 www.pwc.co.uk/industries/ governmentpublic-sector/insights/modern-industrial-strategyfor-economic-success.html 19
Universities 63% In addition, about two thirds of our Figure 17: Key partners for growth respondents view universities further education (FE) colleges and SMEs as key partners (Figure 17). FE colleges Local Enterprise Partnerships Barriers to growth 77% 61% In terms of specific barriers to economic growth, lack of investment in infrastructure (72%), lack of influence over skills policy (61%) and lack of affordable or suitable housing (60%) continue to be the top three concerns Public sector SMEs (Figure 18). Noticeably, however, all partners 76% 61% of these concerns are lower than for last year. Universities 63% FE colleges 61% Figure 18: Barriers to economic growth 70 Lack of affordable or suitable housing 60 Lack of investment in digital connectivity / broadband 47 SMEs 50 61% 79 Lack of investment in infrastructure 72 Lack of influence over skills policy 67 61 42 Lack of capacity within the local authority 38 17 Difficulty in agreeing collaborative arrangements with private sector partners 18 Difficulty in agreeing collaborative arrangements 31 with public sector partners 26 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 % 2017 2018 The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 20
The impact of Brexit Figure 19: The impact of Brexit With growing clarity on the Thinking about the potential consequences of leaving the EU, to what extent will the parameters of a likely future Brexit following factors impact on our council? deal, particularly with the transitional agreement, there has been an increase Foreign direct investment into your area 44 28 28 in the respondents to our survey who felt that the areas of greatest impact International trade of 51 26 22 on their councils would be on trade, businesses in your area foreign direct investment (FDI) and funding (Figure 19). Funding received 49 21 29 But only 12% of respondents say Your human resources 31 31 38 their councils are proactively going abroad on a city-to-city basis to find Policy and regulations 38 38 24 investment, develop trading links Revenue from business rates and and promote exports. In addition, any other local taxes / duties 41 31 28 74% are not confident that central 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 government will engage with cities % and local government in reshaping regional investment and regeneration High impact Neutral Low impact funds beyond Brexit. These are both important areas for action. The public view on the impact of Brexit on the local economy Tough questions on place In terms of the impact on local based growth economies, the impact of Brexit is also 1. How ‘investor ready’ are you in a source of uncertainty for the public: terms of having stakeholders almost half (46%) of the public neither aligned behind a shared vision and identity for your area and the agree nor disagree that their local area priorities for good growth? will benefit from leaving the EU. 2. Do you have a deliverable strategy and feasible plans to meet your infrastructure needs, including housing, transport and skills? 3. How well are you engaging with the private sector to boost productivity and meet local employers’ needs? 4. How will your local economy fare in terms of trade, FDI and investment on leaving the EU? 5. Can you do more to help local businesses by proactively going abroad on a city-to-city basis to find investment, develop trading links and promote exports? 21
The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 22
The new local government landscape: is devolution stalling? With so much dealmaking in government focused out towards the EU, it may seem that there has been too little focus and capacity to deliver the next stage of the much promised ‘devolution revolution’. This appears to be confirmed in our Figure 20: Prospects for further devolution survey where there is a perception By the end of the parliament, my council will have significantly more powers and responsibilities that devolution has stalled, with only 13% of respondents agreeing that their council will have more powers March 2015 22 26 52 and responsibilities in 2022, similar to 12% last year and well down from 33% May 2015 33 13 55 in May 2015 when the Conservative government led by David Cameron March 2016 20 35 45 came into power. March 2017 12 32 56 Expectations of further devolution have hit rock bottom, with only one in March 2018 13 23 64 ten respondents expecting to be part of a combined authority by 2021. Barriers 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 to further devolution are seen to be % jointly the mayoral model and local Strongly agree/agree Neutral Strongly disagree/disagree political relationships as well as a lack of potential powers to be gained. The new cohort of metro mayors may Where next for devolution? Since 2015 our survey has charted the yet give devolution a jump start as Our polling shortly after the 2015 rise and, until last year, slight decline their collective impact starts to be felt General Election showed that 33% of in those who believe that their council but this will take time as the public survey respondents believed that their will be part of a combined authority increasingly understands the role of council would have greater powers and by the end of this Parliament, peaking a mayor and can see the impact that responsibilities by 2022, which fell to at 69% in March 2016 and down to they can have. only 12% in last year’s Survey. 47% last year. Our survey this year, however, shows how dramatically This year shows a continuing low level opinion has change with a sharp of expectation for increased devolution decline to only one in ten (11%) of (Figure 20). Only 13% of respondents those surveyed who think they would think their council will have more be part of a combined authority by the powers and responsibilities by the end end of this Parliament. It appears that of this Parliament, similar to last year confidence in further devolution has hit but with a hardening of the undecided rock bottom. and with two thirds disagreeing or strongly disagreeing. 23
Why has devolution stalled? Figure 21: Barriers to devolution It is little surprise that the mayoral model is still identified as a key barrier to devolution, with 74% of respondents Lack of potential powers gain 63 17 20 citing this as an issue. However, local Increase in potential financial risk 34 31 35 political relationships are now of almost equal importance at 73% (up Lack of potential funding gain 53 21 26 from 62% last year) with concerns on the lack of potential powers to be The mayoral modelling requirement 74 9 17 gained not that far behind (Figure 21). Difficulty agreeing economic geography 58 15 27 Fiscal devolution: shifting to business rates and more Local political relationships 73 12 15 radical options 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 On the subject of being prepared for % the shift from grant funding to business Strongly agree/agree Neutral Strongly disagree/disagree rate income, there has been a step jump from last year (when just over half of respondents said they were prepared): almost three quarters (73%) of respondents say their council is ready (Figure 22). Figure 22: Readiness for business rates My council is prepared for the shift from grant funding to business rate income 2016 46 36 17 2017 54 28 18 2018 73 16 11 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Strongly Neutral Strongly agree/agree disagree/disagree The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 24
IFS on business rates retention • Respondents from councils that fiscal devolution have been relative gainers from the The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) existing BRRS are more optimistic used recent surveys from the Local about the local impact of a 100% Government Intelligence Unit BRRS. Those from areas where (LGIU) and last year’s Local State recent economic growth is higher We’re In survey to examine council are also more optimistic, although decisionmakers’ views on the impact of this optimism may be misplaced: business rates retention scheme (BRRS) other research suggests there is on revenues and incentives across little relationship between economic England. Key findings included: growth and business rates revenue growth, at least during the period • Two-thirds of survey respondents between 2010 and 2015. say that it is impossible to work out whether their council has gained • Those expecting to gain from a financially from the current BRRS. 100% BRRS are also more likely This may be because they are to say that such a scheme would unsure what the funding system provide an incentive to councils would otherwise have looked like. more generally to promote economic growth. However, like last year there remains Looking at other options for greater a divide over how funds should be fiscal devolution, almost all of our redistributed, with a third (36%) council respondents (96%) want greater agreeing that the incentive for growth freedom over the structure and level of should have precedence while two Council Tax while nine in ten want to thirds (64%) agreeing that revenues have greater freedom over the structure should be largely redistributed to ensure and level of business rates and to be able that all areas can provide services to a to retain 100% of right to buy receipts. reasonable standard. In comparison, more radical options had less support including being assigned We asked a similar question of the public a proportion of income tax (58%) and and received very similar responses having control over a locally variable to last year: 26% agreed that councils income tax (54%). should be able to keep all of the revenue raised by local taxes regardless of need, 36% thought there should be a balance between being able to keep revenue while ensuring that every area had enough to meet their needs, and 19% agreed that local taxes should be allocated to whichever areas need them most. 25
Figure 23: The public’s view on devolution Ministers should have less power over local services such as hospitals and policing and local government 16 43 41 More directly elected mayors should be 24 46 30 introduced to run our towns and cities The current balance of power between central 32 49 18 and local government is about right I am confident that local councillors and officials are 34 45 21 up to the job of having more power over local services 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Strongly disagree/disagree Neutral Strongly agree/agree The public’s view on devolution Does this mean a bleak future for Tough questions on devolution Our public polling suggests that public mayors? Not in our view. For instance 1. How can local leaders in appetite for devolution remains, with in London, where the Mayor has been public, private and third sector only 18% agreeing or strongly agreeing established for some time, there is a organisations work better together that the current balance of power more positive view with 30% of our across your place to deliver a between central and local government polling respondents agreeing that the devolution dividend? 2. How prepared are you for the is right (the same as last year) and 41% Mayor of London has had a positive shift to business rates and the (similar to 43% last year) agreeing or impact and only 22% disagreeing. Our financial freedoms and incentives strongly agreeing that Ministers should local authority survey respondents you will need to deliver place have less power over local services and in councils with elected mayors also based growth? local government should have more on balance see a positive impact 3. Can you provide evidence to power (Figure 23). (although the numbers who responded central government of the case for to this question are too low to be further devolution or for setting up a combined authority? There also seems to be an appetite for statistically representative). 4. Do you have the governance more local accountability and control arrangements in place to be through the mayoral model with nearly This confirms our wider research that held account for the delivery a third (30%) of the respondents to our once the public understands the role of outcomes? public poll believing that more directly of a mayor and can see the impact that 5. Do you understand the risks elected mayors should be introduced to they can have, they generally become inherent in taking on additional run our towns and cities. more in favour of the mayoral model. powers, services or funding and how are you managing these? So if the metro mayors elected last However, only 21% of the public polled year can make their mark and prove are confident that local councillors their worth to their electorates, over and officials are up to the job of time their collective impact can have a having more powers (the same as last wider impact. year’s poll). In addition, in areas with directly elected mayors only a fifth (20%) of the respondents to our public polling feel that their mayor has had a positive impact on their local area in the past year. The local state we’re in – PwC’s annual local government survey 2018 26
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