THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP CONTEST - Cicero Group
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THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP CONTEST
Chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs, Sir Graham Brady, has reportedly received close to the threshold of 48 Tory MPs who have
submitted letters of no confidence in the leader. In the event Sir Graham receives 48 or more letters, Theresa May must win a vote of confidence in her
leadership to keep her job. As our chart (below) demonstrates, there is no clear front-runner to succeed May. This is surely part of the reason why she has
been able to survive each set back since the snap General Election in June 2017. Amidst a rising tide of discontent in the Parliamentary Conservative Party,
pressure on the Prime Minister is growing. But pressure isn’t new for Theresa May, who has come under fire from different factions in her party throughout
her premiership.
But what seems unique about this moment is that the grumblings of discontent are coming from many sides at the same time and are less veiled than ever.
With little indication of what the Brexit end-state will look like, and a third major Brexit speech scrapped, Tory MPs are trying to influence the Government’s
position. That has created an environment in which jockeying, leaking and vocal calls for clarity from the Prime Minister have become a daily occurrence.
With 19 months having passed since the referendum, the longer Theresa May waits to finally outline her Brexit vision and what post-Brexit Britain might look
like, the louder the calls for fresh leadership and direction will become. Yet in laying out a clear vision, she risks alienating a significant proportion of her party.
It’s a tricky tightrope to walk.
RUNNERS AND RIDERS
A leadership contest will be viewed through the prism of Brexit. However, MPs will be looking for someone with bold proposals for public services too,
knowing that this could be the leader fighting the next election, facing Jeremy Corbyn. Familiar faces will throw their hats into the ring. We might see Boris
Johnson, Andrea Leadsom and David Davis running for the leadership again. Jacob Rees-Mogg is often mentioned but MPs may be wary of choosing such an
polarising candidate. While a Leaver seems the inevitable choice, we can’t rule out a handful of Tories who campaigned for Remain but could still present
themselves as a unity candidate – the likes of Amber Rudd, Tom Tugendhat or Jeremy Hunt (who now backs Leave). However, with no clear frontrunner, the
race could yet open up for a surprise candidate to emerge through the middle – something that has happened repeatedly in the past.
WILL THEY WON’T THEY?
A contest is not inevitable. But if it does happen, it may be the Conservative Party members who have the final say. The last two candidates go to a membership
vote. In Conservative Home polling of party members, only 26% of respondents think Mrs May should resign now. 45% think she should resign before the
next election (due in 2022) and 26% don’t think she should resign at all. Brexit-backing Tory MPs know they want a true Brexit, but they’re unsure how to go
about securing it. Getting over the 48-letter threshold to the 1922 Committee represents the next great hurdle, with a leadership contest the obvious
opportunity to vote for a leader that truly backs Brexit. They may be on the precipice of enough numbers to force a no confidence vote, but in the Party there
is no clear alternative candidate that could command the support in parliament to deliver a hard Brexit. Mrs May, pressured by a resurgent European Research
Group, might yet be their best bet.
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THE PROCESS TO ELECT A NEW LEADER 2
Once the threshold is
A leadership contest is reached, Theresa May faces
triggered when 15% of the a vote of no confidence by
her Parliamentary Party. If Candidates seeking to
parliamentary Conservative The incumbent is barred
a vote of no confidence is contest the election need
Party – 48 MPs – write from standing,
passed, the Chair of the the support of at least two
letters of no confidence in guaranteeing a new Party
1922 Committee will MPs to get onto the ballot
the Prime Minister to Sir Leader and Prime Minister.
announce the start of the paper.
Graham Brady MP (Chair of
the 1922 Committee). leadership contest and
invites nominations.
If more than two MPs are
nominated, a secret ballot
of Conservative MPs is held
A new leader is ‘anointed’ on the Tuesday Those two nominees are
if only one candidate puts immediately following the then put to a ballot of the
The result is then
their name forward. Given closing date for wider Conservative Party
announced, and the winner
the current fractures in the nominations. The person membership. Party
becomes Party Leader and
Conservative Party, a single who receives the fewest members vote, on a one
Prime Minister.
unity candidate seems votes on each occasion is member one vote basis for
highly unlikely. eliminated and subsequent their preferred candidate.
ballots are held on
Thursdays and Tuesdays
until two names remain.
@CiceroElectionsLikelihood of becoming next Conservative leader
JACOB REES-MOGG
DOMINIC RAAB
TOM TUGENDHAT
GAVIN WILLIAMSON
REMAIN
DAVID DAVIS
JEREMY HUNT
BORIS JOHNSON
THE RACE TO REPLACE: RUNNERS AND RIDERS
ANDREA LEADSOM
LEAVE
AMBER RUDD
MICHAEL GOVE
SOMEONE FRESH!
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THE RACE TO REPLACE: RUNNERS AND RIDERS
NONE OF THE BELOW!
What does it tell you about a party when ‘Other’ frequently ranks as the most popular candidate for future leader amongst members? The lack of a clear and
obvious candidate to replace Theresa May is often cited as a reason for her to stay. Given the structure of a Tory leadership contest, a stalking horse candidate
isn’t possible; the ‘put up or shut up’ period is instant. So with no natural candidate to succeed the Prime Minister but a growing wave of momentum behind
fresh leadership, the field could be clear for an unexpected candidate to come down the middle to victory. There is no natural platform for this, in the same
way that David Cameron’s speech to the 2005 Conservative Party conference crowned him as leader in all but name. But an open leadership contest could
provide emerging young Tories the air time to prove themselves. The backbenches, junior ministerial roles and party posts and stacked with young
Conservative talent – Rishi Sunak, Ranil Jayawardena, Bim Afolami, Victoria Atkins, Kemi Badenoch and a long list of others. With Conservative Party members
hardly enamoured with the current front-runners, a surprise candidate could yet emerge and take the establishment runners and riders all the way.
JACOB REES-MOGG – 2010 INTAKE / NORTH EAST SOMERSET / 10,235 MAJORITY / LEAVE
• Brexit credentials: 5/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 21%
• Most likely to: Stick to his word and not run, but use his influence as Chair of the ERG to endorse a Brexiteer candidate
The darling of the right and the truest of true believers in Brexit, where Rees-Mogg went at Conservative Party conference huddled masses followed. Since
then, he has pursued a twin-track approach – on the one hand pledging total loyalty to the Prime Minister, but on the other beginning to suggest the
Government’s commitment to the cause is fading. He has accused the red lines set out in the Lancaster House and Florence speeches of beginning to look a
little pink, and as leader few would doubt his willingness to walk away from Brexit talks if a bad deal was offered. But delivering a clean Brexit and going into
the next election as leader are different tasks. Mogg’s views on a range of social issues are at odds with much of the country. Would Conservatives risk
choosing a leader who embodies Brexit but deters the centre-ground voters needed to win a general election? It would represent a short-term decision
steeped in long-term risk.
DOMINIC RAAB – 2010 INTAKE / ESHER AND WALTON / 23,298 MAJORITY / LEAVE
• Brexit credentials: 5/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 5%
• Most likely to: Throw his hat into the ring, but pull out and back another Brexiteer
@CiceroElectionsTHE RACE TO REPLACE: RUNNERS AND RIDERS 5
If there is a leadership contest any time soon, don’t discount Raab. A Brexiteer who is able to articulate his views on camera, Raab is a rising star in the party.
Promoted in successive reshuffles, he has had an early taste of junior ministerial experience at Justice and now at the revamped Housing, Communities &
Local Government ministry. Some may consider him too inexperienced, but remember David Cameron only spent time as a Shadow Health Secretary before
assuming the role of party leader (albeit in opposition).
TOM TUGENDHAT – 2015 INTAKE / TONBRIDGE AND MALLING / 23,508 MAJORITY / REMAIN
• Brexit credentials: 1/5
• ConHome polling favourability: N/A
• Most likely to: Run as the pragmatic centrist candidate
The prevailing wisdom is that a future leader must be a Brexiteer. Tugendhat doesn’t fit into that mould having campaigned for Remain, but if the Tory Party
is willing to overlook that litmus test then the Member for Tonbridge and Malling will be in with a chance. Tugendhat made a statement of intent by becoming
the first MP in the 2015 intake to win a select committee chairmanship. In that victory, he proved his support from across the Conservative Party having
carried endorsements from Owen Paterson, Tracey Crouch, Michael Gove and Jacob Rees-Mogg. His appeal to the right of the membership can’t come from
supporting Leave, but Tugendhat is a proud veteran of 15 years in the Army. Active service in Iraq and Afghanistan means this his credentials as a patriot can’t
be questioned. Tipped for the top in a September 2017 profile by Conservative Home, don’t discount Tugendhat just because he isn’t a Brexiteer.
GAVIN WILLIAMSON – 2010 INTAKE / SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE / 22,733 MAJORITY / REMAIN
• Brexit credentials: 2/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 3%
• Most likely to: Suffer from being portrayed as opportunist by ‘allies’ of other candidates who fear him
The Secretary of State for Defence is undoubtedly on manoeuvres. Meteoric rise is a tired phrase in politics, but Williamson has ascended from backbench
MP to Defence Secretary in just seven years. Few would have seen such a rise coming, proof that Williamson knows how to create allies and leverage them
at just the right moment. He could suffer from appearing too close to the current leadership, a toxic accusation if a leadership contest takes place and the
Tory members are able to openly air their distaste for Mrs May. The Prime Minister trusted him enough to ask him to negotiate the Tories’ deal with the DUP
after the 2017 general election. Nevertheless, he has faced criticism recently and revelations about his private life have taken some of the sheen off
Williamson. Famous for keeping a tarantula on his desk in the Commons, an open campaign will be the only measure of whether Williamson has the support
to match his undoubted ambition. The onus will be on the owner of Cronus to generate support.
@CiceroElectionsTHE RACE TO REPLACE: RUNNERS AND RIDERS 6
DAVID DAVIS – 1987 INTAKE / HALTEMPRICE AND HOWDEN / 15,405 MAJORITY / LEAVE
• Brexit credentials: 5/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 4%
• Most likely to: Back another Leaver, under the condition that he keeps his job as Secretary of State for Exiting the EU
David Davis is a man of many monikers – knuckle duster, bruiser, brawler. They were arguably all qualities that Theresa May admired in the man affectionately
known as DD when she appointed him to lead the Department for Exiting the EU. Since entering parliament in 1987, Davis has been one of the stalwarts of
the Tory right but with a libertarian streak which has often put him into conflict with party policy. Twice defeated in races for the party leadership, the
environment now amongst the Tory grass roots and MPs is different. It favours the bold, the brave and the pro-Brexit. Questions will linger about how much
Davis might want the top job – would he not be content with seeing another Brexiteer become leader provided he keeps his job spearheading DExEU? Perhaps
not, given the alarming rate of staff turnover in the department and a power grab in the Brexit handling process by Number 10 and Olly Robbins’ unit in the
Cabinet Office. Becoming leader might be the elevation Davis seeks to truly shape the Brexit end state, with experience as lead negotiator with Michel Barnier
at the top of his CV.
JEREMY HUNT – 2005 INTAKE / SOUTH WEST SURREY / 21,590 MAJORITY / REMAIN
• Brexit credentials: 2/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 5%
• Most likely to: Cite his time as Health Secretary as proof he’s ‘done the hard yards’
The Health Secretary recently announced that he has changed his mind on Brexit. Owing to better than expected economic performance, Hunt revealed he
would vote to Leave if another referendum were held – the clearest indication yet that he is considering a future leadership bid. An MP since 2005 and Health
Secretary for approaching five and half years, Hunt has unquestionably put in the legwork traditionally required for a party leader by doing a long stint in a
tough job. As a Remain campaigner, some might be surprised that Hunt polls at 5%, sandwiched in between the Leavers Dominic Raab and David Davis. As a
born-again Brexiteer, Leavers may see Hunt as a preferable option to a more centrist candidate like Amber Rudd. Given the NHS is a public priority but a
polling weakness for the Tories, the Party will need to consider the long-term electoral implications of promoting a Health Secretary to leader.
@CiceroElectionsTHE RACE TO REPLACE: RUNNERS AND RIDERS 7
BORIS JOHNSON – 2015 INTAKE / UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP / 5,034 MAJORITY / LEAVE
• Brexit credentials: 5/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 14%
• Most likely to: Be the frontrunner, but do a better job of keeping Michael Gove on side this time
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson played a central role in the Leave campaign, and as such would be considered an early favourite in any future leadership
contest. In Johnson’s favour is the personality and authenticity that has become sought after in modern politics. For the Tory right, he ticks the box as a true
believing Brexiteer. Perhaps most importantly for the party membership, Johnson has been the lead articulator for the positive vision of Britain post-Brexit.
Looking further ahead to the next election though, some Conservatives may fear that Johnson has the potential to be toxic in Remain-voting areas if he took
over the leadership. The Labour Party would campaign relentlessly around Johnson’s claim that Brexit will free up an extra £350m per week for the NHS,
while highlighting the missteps he has made as Foreign Secretary. Considered the biggest Brexiteer amongst Tory Party members in a YouGov poll, Johnson
could be a smart short-term decision but too divisive in the long-term to lead the Conservatives to a majority in the next general election.
ANDREA LEADSOM – 2010 INTAKE / SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE / 22,840 MAJORITY / LEAVE
• Brexit credentials: 4/5
• ConHome polling favourability: N/A
• Most likely to: Trade her endorsement for the promise of a top job
Andrea Leadsom pushed Theresa May all the way to the final run-off in the 2016 leadership contest, before a controversial interview led her to withdraw and
clear the path to victory. Leadsom nevertheless remains ambitious far beyond her current role as Leader of the House of Commons. A previous backer of
Boris Johnson, Leadsom’s ambition could well be exchanged for a promise of one of the great Offices of State; allies of Leadsom have previously made little
secret of her desire to become the first female Chancellor. Having run unsuccessfully once before, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her run again, only to throw
her support behind another true Brexit candidate with the promise of the keys to 11 Downing Street a key part of the deal.
AMBER RUDD – 2010 INTAKE / HASTINGS AND RYE / 346 MAJORITY / REMAIN
• Brexit credentials: 0/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 6%
• Most likely to: Portray herself a bridge between warring factions of the Conservative Party
@CiceroElectionsTHE RACE TO REPLACE: RUNNERS AND RIDERS 8
In a similar bracket to Gavin Williamson, Amber Rudd is another Conservative who has ascended the ranks of government rapidly. From election to parliament
to Home Secretary in six years. She has held a great Office of State, which burnishes her credentials. She may come to be seen as a unity candidate (in the
mould of Theresa May) who is able to bridge gap between ideologically warring factions in the Conservative Party and keep the peace. Despite that appeal,
Rudd has two significant issues holding her back. First, she unapologetically backed Remain and has shown none of the Jeremy Hunt or Lizz Truss style remorse
since then (but is nevertheless the highest ranked Remainer in the Conservative Home poll). Second, her majority in Hastings and Rye is just 364 votes, making
the seat a super-marginal that Labour grass roots campaigned have already targeted with leaflets and door-knocking. Looking ahead to a general election,
Conservatives will be terrified that their Prime Minister could suffer from the humiliation of losing their seat, prompting yet another leadership contest.
MICHAEL GOVE – 2005 INTAKE / SURREY HEATH / 24,943 MAJORITY / LEAVE
• Brexit credentials: 5/5
• ConHome polling favourability: 16%
• Most likely to: Be referred to as the ‘dark horse’ candidate
Few Conservative Cabinet members appear to be enjoying themselves as much as Michael Gove at the moment. At first thrown to the wayside by Theresa
May in her first reshuffle as Prime Minister, Gove has made a surprise return to frontline politics as Environment Secretary. He has become the standard-
bearer for creating positive, forward-looking policy despite Brexit sapping almost all the political oxygen out of Westminster and capacity out of the civil
service. As a result, his popularity amongst Conservative members has risen consistently. Gove now ranks third behind Jacob Rees-Mogg (whose candidacy
we doubt) and ‘Other’, creating at least a visible path to victory. An unfashionable Education Secretary and seen as a real moderniser as Lord Chancellor,
Gove certainly ruffled plenty of feathers long before he created one half of a formidable pro-Leave force with Boris Johnson. His support behind the scenes
could be crucial for a future leader, but don’t discount Gove making a second run at the top job himself. The ‘dark horse’ candidate could yet surprise us all.
Ben Roback – Account Manager, UK Public Affairs
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