NFU Cymru Brexit Update - September 2019
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NFU Cymru Brexit Update – September 2019
“All out for six…no not the cricket,” writes NFU’s Chief EU Exit and International Trade Adviser Gail Soutar,
but rather what our Prime Minister’s voting results record looked like as he shut down Parliament for 5
weeks earlier this month. In a month when we have seen the Brexit saga move from the Parliament to the
Courts as well as the most exciting Ashes series in recent years– one thing is sure - the Supreme Court’s
ruling on the legality of the Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament can’t end in a draw.
It has been a bruising month for Boris Johnson; losing every vote in Parliament so far under his
premiership, his brother Jo Johnson resigning from his cabinet and being empty-podiumed by the
Luxembourg Prime Minister. It is little wonder he feels he will need the strength of the Incredible Hulk to
deliver on his commitment to leave the EU on the 31st October – “do or die.” With less than 6 weeks to go
to Exit Day, the NFU continues to take every opportunity to ensure that our departure from the EU is
orderly.
Key Developments – View from the UK
MPs pass law to stop no-deal Brexit in October
After returning from summer recess and almost immediately taking control of parliamentary business, MPs
proceeded to pass a new law that seeks to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31st October 2019. It was passed
with 21 “rebel” Conservative MPs voting for it, and in the process losing their right (“the whip”) to represent
the party as MPs. The new law requires that the Prime Minister request an extension to the Article 50
negotiating period – and therefore the UK’s membership of the EU – before 31st October, unless MPs
approve one of two other options by 19th October. One option is that the government presents a Brexit deal
to MPs, which they then approve and the UK leaves the EU on the terms of the deal. The second option is
that MPs explicitly vote in favour of a motion that supports the UK leaving without a deal on 31st October. It
is incredibly unlikely such a no-deal motion would be successful, therefore unless a deal is approved, the
Prime Minister will be forced to extend the negotiating period; something he has stated numerous times he
refuses to do. Nevertheless, the law compels the Prime Minster to request an extension to run until 31 st
January 2020 – a request that would require the unanimous agreement of the EU. For the farming sector,
the law does provide some protection against a damaging no-deal Brexit in October. Crucially however, and
notwithstanding the government finding a way around it, the law does not fully rule out a no-deal Brexit, but
rather pushes the potential timing for one to a later date.
Johnson loses votes to trigger General Election
After failing to prevent the “rebels” from passing their new no-deal law, the Prime Minister then decided that
the best course of action to deliver Brexit on the 31st October, would be to hold a snap General Election –
pencilled in for the 14th October. However the Prime Minister’s plans were thwarted by a united opposition,
who once again managed to defeat the Prime Minister, not once but twice in votes over the timing of a
General Election. Why? So that the Prime Minster be forced (by law) to ask the EU for an extension –
something that he has said he would “rather die in a ditch than do!”
Parliament “prorogued” and the Courts rule
Hours after the new law compelling the Prime Minister to request an extension came into effect, the House
of Commons was “prorogued” –suspending the work of Parliament until the 14th October – the longest
period of prorogation since the 1930s. During this period of suspension, Parliamentary Committees will not
take evidence and MPs will not be able to scrutinise or make laws. The decision to prorogue Parliament has
generated a number of court cases challenging the government’s decision and its underlying motives.
Scotland’s highest civil court – the Court of Session –ruled that “the Prime Minister’s advice to the Queen
was unlawful if its purpose was to stymie parliamentary scrutiny of the executive.” The case was then
appealed and the UK Supreme Court’s ruling on the matter is expected imminently.
The voice of Welsh farming
Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, neither the NFU
nor the author can accept liability for errors and or omissions. © NFU
Prorogation and the fate of the “Brexit” Bills
The suspension of Parliament means that the legislative Bills that were passing through the Houses of
Parliament on their way towards enactment will be affected. None of the current Brexit Bills including the
Agriculture Bill, Trade Bill and the Immigration Bill will be carried over to the next session of Parliament. This
means that the government will have to reintroduce those (or a variation) of those Bills from the start of their
next legislative session – meaning that that they begin right back at the beginning of the decision making
process. The upside is that reintroducing a Bill gives the NFU the opportunity to influence the wording of it
before it is formally brought back to MPs for debate and amendment. In the meantime the current EU rules
relating to the CAP, specifically the BPS, CS, HLS and RDPE rules will continue as they are.
The fact that the Agriculture Bill is not being carried forward also has implications for the Welsh Government
as the whole legislative underpinning for their future agricultural policy (currently being consulted upon)
derives from the Agriculture Bill.
Operation Yellowhammer: government’s no-deal planning assumptions
Before the suspension of Parliament MPs managed to force the government to release further details of its
no-deal planning known within Whitehall as “Operation Yellowhammer”. In response, the government
published a six page summary of this work, which outlines the worst case planning assumptions in such an
event. In this scenario, the UK is treated like any other country that the EU has no trade deal with and the
relationship between the two is considered “unsympathetic”. No bilateral deals are concluded directly with
EU member states and public and business readiness is assumed to be at a low level, although larger
businesses are thought to be better-prepared.
One of the major impacts for the agri-food industry will be disruption and delays at the UK-EU frontier, in
particular the Dover-Calais crossing. Extra checks on HGVs will lead to only 40-60% of the current flow rate
being achieved, with lorries facing delays between 1.5-2.5 days. Such disruption could last up to three
months. There will not be an overall food shortage, but choice and variety of food – particularly fresh food –
will decrease and push food prices up. Government estimates that stocks of veterinary medicines will not be
high as in March, when 4-12 weeks’ worth was stockpiled. This could lead to a shortage of some medicines,
with possible impacts on farm animal health and welfare. The government’s plan to operate no border
checks on goods entering over the land border of Northern Ireland is judged to be “unsustainable”, with
threats to the Northern Irish economy and biosecurity risks. The lack of border checks is also seen to
threaten the trust in the UK’s agri-food sector, with an illegitimate economy for agri-food likely to develop
across the border. Read an NFU summary of operation Yellowhammer here.
Certainty for farmers and growers as Home Office clarifies immigration policy
In August, the Home Secretary, Priti Patel, announced she planned to end Freedom of Movement on 1st
November, meaning that EU citizens would only be able to come to the UK for short term visits post-Brexit,
unless they had settled or pre-settled status. This created huge uncertainty for the thousands of EU
employees in the agri-food industry, as previous policy was seemingly withdrawn. The NFU reacted
immediately, sending an urgent letter to the Home Secretary seeking clarifications and reassurances as well
as arranging two meetings with the Home Secretary. Off the back of the NFU’s efforts, the Home Office
clarified that EU nationals would be able to come to the UK to live and work from the 31st of October in a no-
deal Brexit.
This will be possible for a transition period of 14 months until 31 st December 2020. There will be some
changes for EU nationals arriving in the UK under the new system such as tougher criminality checks.
Citizens would still be able to enter the UK on their passports or on a national identity card. EU workers
arriving after a 31st October no-deal who wish to remain in the UK beyond 2020 will have the option to apply
for the Temporary Leave to Remain scheme. If successful, individuals will be able to stay in the UK with the
right to live and work for up to 36 months. If they wish to remain in the UK beyond this 36 month period they
will have to apply under the new immigration policy, anticipated to be a points-based system which will come
into force from January 2021. EU nationals in the UK before October 31 st will still be able to apply for settled
or pre-settled status: a full explanation of these two schemes can be found here.
The voice of Welsh farming
Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, neither the NFU
nor the author can accept liability for errors and or omissions. © NFUUK Government’s spending plans for 2020/2021
The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid’s announcement for the largest increase in public
spending in more than 15 years, committing the government to a 4.1% increase in expenditure from 2019-20
to 2020-21, in a bid to draw a line under the era of austerity, was somewhat drowned out by the
Parliamentary Brexit drama.
NFU Cymru has expressed relief that the UK Government has committed to securing the Welsh farming
budget for the years 2020-2022.This announcement comes as part of the UK Government’s response to the
Lord Bew Review into the allocations of CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) convergence funding across the
UK. NFU Cymru is however concerned about the impact that a significant additional cash boost to the
Scottish farming budget will have on the competitiveness of farmers in the rest of the UK.
The UK Government pledged a one off payment of £160 million to Scottish farmers, along with an
announcement today of an additional £51.4 million per year for the next two years. Wales will see an
increase of £5.2 million per year for the next two years, with the budgets in England and Northern Ireland
remaining unchanged. The UK Government has said in its response that the farm support budget is fixed
until the end of this parliament.
The NFU wrote to the Chancellor in advance of his decision setting out a number of farming priorities for the
year ahead, including those related to Brexit and was encouraged to see that the government will provide
additional funding for Brexit, but in our response we reiterated that it is absolutely crucial that any exit from
the EU is smooth and orderly to enable this money to be used to help build a productive and profitable food
and farming industry, rather than trying to mitigate the serious damage a no-deal would have on British food
production.
Is there an alternative to the Irish Backstop?
The main reason Theresa May’s deal failed to pass muster with enough UK MPs was the “Irish Backstop.” It
was a plan that would see the UK remain in a “single customs territory” and Northern Ireland remaining
aligned with many of the EU’s single market rules – until such point as a future relationship that guaranteed
no hard border on the island of Ireland is agreed. The UK government has said the Backstop must go – but
to be replaced by what? Rumours are circulating that the government is looking seriously at the possibility of
“Ireland-specific” arrangements for checking goods away from the border for customs purposes and a single
“all Ireland” zone for food safety rules (also known as SPS rules). Such an approach would allow the UK to
leave both the EU’s customs union and single market, but it is unclear, with no written plans as yet
published, what the rules would mean in effect and whether the ideas behind them will be robust enough to
convince the EU (and crucially the Irish) to move away from its resolute determination for the Irish backstop
as currently drafted.
Key Developments – View from the EU
EU commission to mobilise its disaster relief funding for No-Deal Brexit
Meanwhile, the EU has published an updated preparedness communication setting out its final preparations
for a potential no-deal Brexit on 31st October. The EU says that it will use the “full spectrum of existing
instruments for market support and direct financial support to farmers to mitigate the worst impact on agri-
food markets.” It will extend the scope of the European Solidarity Fund to cover serious financial burden
inflicted on Member States imputable to a disorderly exit, and it will ensure that the European Globalisation
Adjustment Fund is made available to support EU workers made redundant as a consequence of the UK
leaving without a deal.
NFU and NFU Cymru Activity
NFU Cymru urges government to review no-deal applied tariffs
NFU Cymru called on the UK Government to ensure that imports of agri-food products to the UK are subject
to the same tariffs customs as those that will be applied to exports from the UK. Whilst NFU Cymru
The voice of Welsh farming
Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, neither the NFU
nor the author can accept liability for errors and or omissions. © NFUcontinues to lobby tirelessly for an orderly Brexit, it is clear that planning within the UK Government has
dramatically intensified for a ‘No deal’ Brexit. As a result, NFU Cymru has written to the Secretary of State
for Wales Alun Cairns MP to ask that the applied tariffs rates published by the previous UK Government on
13th March are revisited as a matter of urgency.
NFU Cymru President John Davies said: “When these tariff rates were first published NFU Cymru expressed
concern for the impact on many sectors of agriculture with tariff rates either fully or partly removed. This will
leave Welsh farmers exposed to the full effects of competition from countries whose standards of production
are often considerably lower than our own. NFU Cymru is of the view that tariffs on agri-food products
should be levied on a reciprocal basis, that is to say the tariff charged by the UK on goods entering the
country matches the tariff charged on our exports of such goods. We have requested, through Secretary of
State Alun Cairns MP, that these tariff rates are urgently reviewed with a view to ensuring that tariffs are
applied on a reciprocal basis to provide some level of protection to the world leading standards our farmers
adhere to here in Wales and throughout the rest of the UK.”
NFU Cymru writes to Welsh Government seeking consultation suspension
NFU Cymru has written to the Minister for Environment, Energy and Rural Affairs calling for the suspension
of the current ‘Sustainable Farming and Our Land’ consultation on proposals for future agricultural policy in
Wales, while the possibility of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit remains ‘uncomfortably hihg’
In the letter, NFU Cymru President John Davies told the Minister “NFU Cymru has been holding roadshows
up and down the country seeking members’ views on Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming and Our
Land Consultation. One of the overriding themes coming through from those meetings is that farming
businesses are struggling to give such an important consultation, that is likely to shape Welsh agriculture for
many years to come, the attention it deserves when they are also facing the continued threat that a ‘No deal’
could have on their businesses.
No deal remains a very distinct possibility, whilst the prospect of a General Election adds further to the Brexit
uncertainty. The prorogation of Parliament, and the decision of the UK Government not to carry forward the
Agriculture Bill to the next Parliamentary session means that there is not now a legislative basis on the
horizon for the Welsh Government’s future policy for agricultural support. NFU Cymru strongly believes
that it is only right for Welsh Government to temporarily postpone the consultation process. Such action
would allow Welsh farmers to prepare as best they can for the possibility of leaving the European Union –
Welsh agriculture’s biggest marketplace – without a deal.
NFU Cymru consultation roadshows
In the second week of September the NFU Cymru team took to the road as part of a series member
roadshows to consider the Welsh Government’s ‘Sustainable Farming and Our Land’ consultation. The
meetings held in Welshpool, Llysfasi, Glynllifon, Brecon, Cowbridge and Clunderwen sought to gather
member views on the Welsh Government’s proposals for future agricultural support. NFU Cymru will be
responding to the consultation which closes at the end of October in due course, but in the meantime we are
encouraging members to make their own response as well, and a consultation portal to facilitate member
responses is live on the NFU Cymru website
The voice of Welsh farming
Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, neither the NFU
nor the author can accept liability for errors and or omissions. © NFUPrime Minister Johnson visits a farm in Wales
NFU Cymru were pleased to be able to facilitate a
farm visit for the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, early
on in his term of office. The visit which took place at
Victoria Shervington-Jones’ farm near Newport was Mr
Johnson’s first visit to Wales since taking office at the
end of July. NFU Cymru welcomed the fact that the
Prime Minister had chosen to visit a Welsh family
farming business today is welcome recognition of the
importance of the farming and food industry to Wales.
Secretary of State urged to back up assurances to uphold production standards with actions
NFU President has written to the Secretary of State for Defra, Theresa Villiers, asking her once again to
establish a trade and standards commission to ensure the UK’s future trade policy does not undermine
British farming’s high environmental and animal welfare standards. Such a group would bring together
government officials, industry representatives, environmental and welfare groups, and experts in food and
farming. It would be charged with producing a report making recommendations on how future trade policy
should be developed while respecting and upholding the UK’s high standards of production. The
government would need to act on these recommendations. The letter read “British farmers are proud to
produce to some of the highest standards of animal welfare, environmental protection and food safety in the
world. Yet, even if we leave the EU with a deal, there is a very real risk that we will have to compete with
food imports that have been produced using methods and products that would be illegal on British farms.
This would not only be a betrayal of our values but of British farmers whose businesses would be undercut,
as with lower standards comes lower costs of production.”
NFU no-deal Brexit hub updated with government guidance
Last month the team published the NFU’s no-deal Brexit Hub, which brings together in one place all of the
information on a no-deal Brexit that members need to know about. The latest addition is a page detailing all
of the in-depth guidance that the government has published on specific Brexit issues related to agri-food,
known as “technical notices”. Topics include farm payments, labour and trade to name a few. The hub is still
being added to, so staff and members are encouraged to check back regularly for the latest information.
Back British Farming Day – 50 Vital Questions
Back British Farming Day 2019 (11th September) marked 50
days until the 31 October Brexit deadline, and with the threat of a
no-deal exit still in place, the NFU put forward 50 vital questions
for the government to answer to provide certainty for the future of
British food and farming. The questions cover issues surrounding
trade and welfare standards, taxes on imports and exports,
immigration policy, additional red tape, and what will happen to
farm payment rules when the UK is no longer part of the
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The NFU’s Director General,
Terry Jones and Deputy President, Guy Smith also met the
Prime Minister on Back British Farming Day to set out the NFU’s
key concerns and considerations for our members.
The voice of Welsh farming
Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, neither the NFU
nor the author can accept liability for errors and or omissions. © NFUYou can also read
