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Vaccine hunt Asia’s lost generation Flashback 2020
MCI(P) 053/04/2020 December 2020
US-ASIA
The Great Reset
With Biden ditching ‘America First’,
will opportunities arise for a reset
in ties between the US and China,
and others in the region?
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Can US revive relations with step forward for the region
REACH OUT TO US:
China and others?
Circulation & subscription:
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Louis Koh Biden set to walk tightrope Special Feature
Senior Executive with China
louiskoh@sph.com.sg Will Covid-19 create a ‘lost
generation’ in Asia?
Beijing prepares to match
WE WELCOME YOUR FEEDBACK Biden measure for measure
AND VIEWS Young Asians work on
Letters can be sent to
personal development amid
stasianinsider@sph.com.sg Pyongyang stays mum
pandemic challenges
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Spotlight
Flashback 2020
33 Southeast Asia Watch
Malaysia, land of the young
led by Atoks and Abahs 44 People in the news
Suu Kyi’s landslide win
Jokowi’s son’s run for mayor
sparks talk of newest Indonesian
35
dynasty
Country Report
Pakistan’s army in an unfamiliar
47
place – the spotlight Travel
Malaysia’s largest budget may Life’s not a beach for Boracay’s
not be enough to ease pain amid tourism vendors
pandemic
Pandemic set to worsen Japan’s
dismal birth rates
Winners & losers in China’s
48 Letter from Seoul
So you want to date an oppa...
single-day sales
40 Business Trends
When China’s fintech
50 Life: Food
Options growing for
plant-based diet
‘mistress’ was brought to heel
52 Big Picture
Passage to a season of
colours
3
Cover Story
THE GREAT RESET
Can US revive
relations with
China and others?
Beijing awaits President Joe Biden’s
administration while Tokyo waits to see if talk
about alliances is for real. Pyongyang has
fallen silent while Delhi wonders if Biden will
raise a few uncomfortable questions.
NIRMAL GHOSH
Biden set to walk
US Bureau Chief
tightrope with China
GONE WILL BE THE “CHINA VIRUS” AND
“kung flu” slurs that United States
President Donald Trump deployed
to wildly cheering crowds at his
rallies; public rhetoric and
megaphone diplomacy will be
nirmal@sph.com.sg
dialled back.
Conventional diplomatic
dialogue will be put together
again, in areas where the Joe
Biden administration would
like to work with China,
While there notwithstanding deeper and
will be a wider strategic competition.
Arms sales to Taiwan
marked shift will continue but there will
in tone, there be no senior-level visits to
unnecessarily provoke China, Mr
will be more Biden’s advisers say.
continuity Yet, while the temperature will be
lowered, those looking for signs of a reversal
than change in the US’ approach to China will be disappointed.
in US policy What a Biden administration will do is to refine
and moderate the style, but the substance of the
towards the US pushback against China will continue, with
ST ILLUSTRATION:
MANNY FRANCISCO,
Asia-Pacific the administration also ratcheting up pressure on
human rights issues.
CEL GULAPA in general, Mr Biden has already signalled a less strident
say Biden’s approach. Asked about punishing China for allowing
the Covid-19 pandemic to break out of the country,
advisers. he said: “It’s not so much about punishing China,
4 AsianInsider December 2020
it’s about making sure China understands they’ve
got to play by the rules. It’s a simple proposition.” Mr Biden will have to
In the meeting with a bipartisan group of contend with an erosion of
governors in his hometown in Wilmington,
Delaware, he said that is one of the reasons his
trust in America abroad
administration is going to rejoin the World Health in general, and in Asia,
Organisation and, on day one as well, the Paris some wariness over hard
climate accord. positions on democracy
“And we have to make sure the rest of the world
and we get together and make sure there are certain
and human rights.
right lines the Chinese understand.
“We have to not only deal with this pandemic,
we have to deal with the next one,” he added.
Certainly, there is a consensus in the US strategic solidifying. The Quadrilateral Dialogue
community that the Chinese Communist Party grouping – India, the US, Australia
(CCP) – described by Mr Dan Blumenthal, director and Japan – held its first joint naval
of Asian studies at the conservative American exercises in November, featuring all
Enterprise Institute, as a “Leninist empire” – is the four powers.
primary strategic threat to the US. Essentially, Mr Biden’s advisers
A State Department strategy paper titled The say, while there will be a marked
Elements Of The China Challenge warns in its shift in tone, there will be more
preamble: “The CCP aims not merely at pre- continuity than change in US policy
eminence within the established world order... towards the Asia-Pacific in general.
but to fundamentally revise world order, placing “Strategy is stronger than
the People’s Republic of China at the centre and politics. China policy will continue
serving Beijing’s authoritarian goals and hegemonic unchanged under Biden,” foreign
ambitions.” policy guru and China expert
The paper lays out 10 ways the US should Edward Luttwak predicted.
approach China, some of which are not different
from what Mr Biden’s advisers prescribe. COMPETITION WITHOUT
They include, for instance, strengthening CATASTROPHE
its alliance system, which foreign policy It is about “competition
strategists have always seen as the US’ without catastrophe”, said
inherent advantage, whether against Dr Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific
Russia or China. security chair at Hudson Institute.
The US must “in cooperation “The Biden administration aims to put a
with the world’s democracies floor beneath the US-China relationship
and other like-minded as a basis for moving forward.”
partners” reform international Apart from investing in US fundamentals
organisations where possible – working with allies and partners, advancing
and, where necessary, network security – there will be two added
build new ones “rooted elements, Dr Cronin told The Straits Times.
in freedom, democracy, “One of them is a renewed strategic dialogue
national sovereignty, human to avoid inadvertent escalation, to basically
rights and the rule of law”, the reinforce coexistence and avoid non-existence,”
strategy paper says. he said.
And it should “promote “The other is areas of cooperation. And there may
American interests by looking be more hope than reality, but from the pandemic
for opportunities to cooperate with to climate change to other issues, clearly there’s
Beijing, subject to norms of fairness greater scope for cooperation than we’ve seen under
and reciprocity”. the Trump administration.”
Long-time Biden aide Antony Blinken said at
STRONG HAND an event in October that the Biden administration
Mr Biden will inherit a strong suite of measures would actually reassert American leadership but
against China, including tariffs, curbs on technology act with some humility and confidence.
and investments, curbs on visas for Chinese media, “America, at its best, still has a greater capacity
and increased scrutiny of students from China for than any country on earth to mobilise others in
state links. positive, collective action,” he said.
The US Navy is also flexing its muscles. Its Battle “When we’re not engaged, when we’re not
Force 2045 plan envisages adding around 200 ships leading, then one of two things (happens): Either
to its fleet. A strategic partnership with India is some other country is and tries to take our place,
5
but probably not in a way that advances our interests On Nov 19, climate and environmental groups,
and values; or, maybe just as bad, no one is, and along with New York City congresswoman
then you’ve got chaos, a vacuum that tends to be Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and other progressive
filled by bad things before it’s filled by good things, lawmakers, held a demonstration at the party’s
and, either way, bad for America.” offices in Washington, decrying Mr Biden’s hiring
of staff with connections to the oil and gas industry.
TEST FOR BIDEN In the case of China, much depends on how
Mr Biden will have to contend with an erosion of Beijing responds and whether it tests Mr Biden.
trust in America abroad in general, and in Asia, “Broad diplomatic engagement with China might
some wariness over hard positions on democracy have a prayer if we had a different China, but we
and human rights. don’t,” said Dr James Carafano of the conservative
At home, he has to deal with a deadly pandemic Heritage Foundation.
and a severely fractured body politic. Differences “If there is a Biden administration and they try
even within the Democratic Party have surfaced this, (China’s President) Xi Jinping will eat their
already. lunch.”
Biden’s picks for Cabinet signal
shift away from ‘America First’
US PRESIDENT-ELECT JOE BIDEN’S PICKS FOR intelligence nominee Avril Haines, who would be
CHARISSA YONG
the top foreign policy and national security spots the first woman to lead the intelligence community,
US Correspondent
in his administration sent a clear message: the days and his nominee for secretary of the Department
In Washington
of “America First” are over and America will take up of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, who
the mantle of global leadership again. would be the first Latino and immigrant to lead
“America’s back. We’re at the head of the table the department.
once again,” said Mr Biden in an interview with NBC, “It’s a team that reflects the fact that America is
aired hours after he introduced six top officials he back. Ready to lead the world, not retreat from it.
wants in his Cabinet on Nov 25, the most senior Ready to confront our adversaries, not reject our
among them being his nominee for secretary of allies. And ready to stand up for our values,” said Mr
state Antony Blinken. Biden in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.
charyong@sph.com.sg His picks, who will have to be confirmed by the “They embody my core belief that America is
Senate next year, will build coalitions and work with strongest when it works with its allies.”
allies to counter terrorism and extremism, deal with Their selection reflects a return to a more
the climate crisis, and combat nuclear proliferation traditional multilateralism, but Mr Biden was
and other threats, said Mr Biden. also careful to note in his NBC interview that his
They include Mr Jake Sullivan – Mr Biden’s former administration would not be “a third Obama term”,
It’s a team that adviser when he was vice-president – for national pointing out that the world they faced now was
security adviser; former diplomat Linda Thomas- different than in 2009 to 2017, when he served as
reflects the fact Greenfield for ambassador to the United Nations; vice-president under then President Barack Obama.
that America is and former secretary of state John Kerry as special Political watchers said the selection made clear
back. Ready to presidential envoy on climate, making it the first time that Mr Biden would be a liberal internationalist
lead the world, America may have a full-time climate change czar. president, a departure from the more isolationist
Mr Biden also unveiled his director of national foreign policy of the incumbent Donald Trump.
not retreat
from it.
– PRESIDENT-ELECT
JOE BIDEN
US President-elect Joe
Biden introduced six top
officials he wants in his
Cabinet, in Delaware, on
Nov 24. PHOTO: AFP
6 AsianInsider
Beijing
prepares to
match Biden
measure for
measure
President Xi Jinping with
Vastly differing values Taiwan, Tibet and the disputed South China Sea.
“If Biden wants to talk, we are willing to sit down
then US Vice-President
Joe Biden in Beijing on
between both mean it would for talks. If he wants to continue Trump’s fight, we Dec 4, 2013. Mr Xi and
President-elect Biden are
be difficult, if not impossible, are not afraid of a fight,” a Communist Party insider
told The Straits Times.
expected to spar over
the next four years over a
for Mr Biden to totally reset He was referring to Mr Trump’s threats to decouple plethora of issues.
PHOTO: REUTERS
bilateral relations the world’s two biggest economies, declare a financial
war, delist Chinese companies in the US and slap
further sanctions over Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
WHEN MR XI JINPING VISITED WASHINGTON AS “Biden will be respectful and reasonable
China’s vice-president on Valentine’s Day in 2012, compared with Trump, but US policy towards China
BENJAMIN KANG LIM
there was no brewing bromance. will not change 180 degrees overnight,” the source
Global Affairs
His counterpart from the United States then, Mr said, requesting anonymity.
Joe Biden, feted him at a welcoming banquet, but There is a consensus in the two houses of Correspondent
pressed him on human rights. It was tantamount Congress, and between Democrats and Republicans,
to a diplomatic slap, as Beijing prefers talking about that China is a strategic competitor that needs to
the issue behind closed doors. be dealt with.
Without singling out any country, a composed Mr The Chinese and Americans’ vastly differing
Xi retorted at the banquet: “There is no best human values mean it would be difficult, if not impossible,
rights in the world, only better human rights.” for Mr Biden to totally reset bilateral relations
The rebuttal was measured. But it may have been which Mr Trump plunged to their lowest ebb since
blim@sph.com.sg
lost in translation. normalisation in 1979. China and the US will have
The unmixed message: The US has no business their own wish list in upcoming negotiations.
lecturing China as America’s own record is not the Trade is the lowest hanging fruit. China can
best in the world. On the other hand, China’s record import more US farm products, but would want
has become better since the Communist Party swept Mr Biden to scrap tariffs imposed by Mr Trump.
to power in 1949. The US was conspicuously absent when 15
The US may see the world in binary opposites, Asia-Pacific countries, including China, formed
but for China, there are multiple shades of grey. the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
The US may not agree with Mr Xi’s view on human – the world’s largest free trade bloc – at a virtual
rights, but he was not factually wrong. regional summit in Hanoi.
For decades, China’s definition of human rights China has further opened its financial market,
has been subsistence rights – feeding and clothing to the delight of Wall Street, US banks and insurers.
more than one billion people. But Mr Biden will find it difficult to undo Mr
China embarked on economic reforms and gave Trump’s tech war and lift a ban on selling chips
its citizens economic rights to enrich themselves to telecoms giant Huawei, or give up seeking the
only four decades ago. China aims to eradicate rural extradition of Meng Wanzhou, daughter of Huawei
poverty by the end of this year. founder Ren Zhengfei, from Canada.
Mr Xi, who became president in 2013, and Mr It is a given that Mr Biden will press China on
Biden, who narrowly defeated incumbent President human rights. But Xinjiang and Hong Kong are
Donald Trump in the presidential election on Nov 3, sovereignty issues for Beijing and backing down is
will spar over the next four years over a plethora of not an option. China argues that the tough measures
issues – from human rights abuses in Xinjiang and are needed to restore stability in the two territories.
Hong Kong to the Covid-19 pandemic, trade, tech, Uighur Muslims were blamed for three terrorist
7
Topping Beijing’s wish attacks between 2009 and 2014 that left about 230
list is likely to be the people dead and more than 1,900 people wounded,
US stopping military
incursions into China’s mostly Han Chinese. Hong Kong was rocked by
airspace and territorial months of rioting last year.
waters near Taiwan and Topping Beijing’s wish list is likely to be the US
in the disputed South stopping military incursions into China’s airspace
China Sea.
PHOTO: REUTERS
and territorial waters near Taiwan and in the
disputed South China Sea.
“When these happened during the presidential
election, we could understand and have been
restraining ourselves. But these provocative actions
must stop after Biden takes over,” a second source of democracies – a move that would be seen by
with ties to the Chinese leadership said, requesting China as vindication of its suspicions that the US
anonymity. is determined to not just contain it, but also bring
Taiwan and the South China Sea are also down the Communist Party.
sovereignty issues for Beijing, which refers to them On the security front, China sees the Quadrilateral
Mr Biden will as “core interests”. Security Dialogue – which consists of Australia,
continue to During Mr Trump’s four-year presidency, America’s India, Japan and the US – as a Nato-like military
sell weapons relations with Taiwan became too close for China’s alliance against it.
comfort. He sent the health secretary and an A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman belatedly
to Taiwan even congratulated Mr Biden on Nov 13, but President
undersecretary to the self-governed democratic island,
though it is an which Beijing has claimed as its own since 1949. Xi sent this congratulations only almost two weeks
open secret Mr Biden will continue to sell weapons to Taiwan later.
that the island’s even though it is an open secret that the island’s China also does not want to give the impression
ruling party preferred Mr Trump over Mr Biden. it is desperate and overeager to please Mr Biden.
ruling party At the recent Bloomberg New Economy Forum,
Some Chinese party insiders are optimistic China
preferred and the US can cooperate on climate change and former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger urged
Mr Trump over non-proliferation. the incoming Biden administration to move quickly
Mr Biden. But Mr Biden will have a lot on his plate after to restore lines of communication with China.
assuming the presidency in January, grappling “Unless there is some basis for some cooperative
with the Covid-19 pandemic, healing the wounds action (between China and the US), the world will
of a politically and racially divided America, and slide into a catastrophe comparable to World War I.”
worrying about economic recovery. He could also At the same forum, China’s No. 2 securities
face a Senate dominated by Republicans. regulator Fang Xinghai also urged the US to take a
Adding to his woes, Mr Trump, who garnered more patient approach, saying that the superpower
about 73.7 million votes, just six million shy of Mr was pushing too fast for change from the world’s
Biden’s tally, appears unwilling to concede defeat second-largest economy.
and could give Mr Biden grief. He hoped for better relations under Mr Biden
Mr Biden could try to regain the moral high and said China and the US need each other.
ground lost by Mr Trump and form an alliance The ball is now in Mr Biden’s court.
India uneasy over whether new US
leadership will raise thorny issues
NIRMALA PM Modi may prove adept at Against the backdrop of perception that Prime
GANAPATHY Minister Narendra Modi was far too cosy with Mr
India Bureau Chief cultivating US President-elect Trump, India has been recalling President-elect Joe
In New Delhi Joe Biden, say observers, but Biden’s long-time support for closer ties with Delhi.
In a phone call with Mr Biden on Nov 17, Mr
some expect initial turbulence Modi “warmly recalled” his earlier interactions with
the President-elect during his visits to the US in
A SENSE OF QUIET CONFIDENCE PERVADES 2014 and 2016.
New Delhi, that ties with Washington will retain External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has
the heft acquired under United States President underlined that Mr Biden is no stranger to India.
Donald Trump, but uncertainty lurks over whether He said: “As vice-president, we dealt with him.
gnirmala@sph.com.sg
the Biden presidency will raise some uncomfortable I happened to be the ambassador during the last
questions. phase of the Obama administration. We knew
8 AsianInsider December 2020Concerns that US may be more
conciliatory towards China
THE PROSPECT OF MR JOE BIDEN IN THE WHITE surveillance from next year, the Nikkei reported.
WALTER SIM
House has eased Japan’s worries over their security It will also tighten inspection procedures in
Japan Correspondent
alliance but there are ripples of trepidation that issuing visas for Chinese students and researchers
In Tokyo
the United States may become more conciliatory over foreign interference fears, the Yomiuri reported
towards China. in October.
Tokyo suffered four years of apprehension as On the other hand, given how inexorably linked
President Donald Trump took a transactional view the Chinese and Japanese economies have become,
of their defence treaty, and his impending departure Tokyo cannot afford to entirely decouple from a
has stirred expectations of a likely return of the US country it views as its greatest security threat.
to multilateral institutions and greater respect being Amid the US’ waning global influence – a
shown to bilateral alliances. trend that Japanese media said began under Mr
But there is a silent minority which sees Mr Obama, who noted that “America is not the world’s waltsim@sph.com.sg
Trump as better for the region, given his hardline policeman” – Japan has sought to build closer ties
posture towards China. This conservative section with Europe, Australia and Asian nations.
thinks the engagement policy pursued by former There are calls for Japan to be the “sixth eye” in
US president Barack Obama, under whom Mr Biden the Five Eyes intelligence alliance that comprises
served as vice-president, was a disaster. Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the US.
Citing discussions with former diplomats, Dr As the US and Japan successfully test-fired a
Kiichi Fujiwara, who teaches international politics jointly developed intercontinental ballistic missile,
at University of Tokyo, says: “Facing China’s rise is a Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga welcomed his
high priority for Japan and there is a fear of a return Australian counterpart Scott Morrison in Tokyo.
to an Obama-era policy of engagement. Trump is The two leaders agreed on a bilateral defence
tough and unpredictable but some believe that a pact to allow their troops to work more closely, in
mad man is better than a soft guy.” what is the first such arrangement for Japan since
Still, there is hope that even as Mr Biden moves the 1960 status of forces deal with the US.
to mend ties with Beijing, he will put more faith in Dr Tosh Minohara, who chairs the Research
the US’ alliance with Tokyo. Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs, says it is a “cat-
In part emboldened by a more hawkish and-mouse game” with a risk of China, North Korea
Washington, Japan has pursued tougher policies and Russia aligning together even more closely.
against China. Tokyo has, in its recent annual This reinforces the importance of Japan building
defence reviews, cited China as a greater security partnerships and beefing up its own defence
threat than North Korea. capabilities, he adds. “Unlike the US, Japan has
Japan will effectively ban the procurement of no option of falling back (given its geographical
Chinese-made drones for defence and infrastructure location),” he says.
him when he was in the Senate Foreign Relations An artist working on a
Committee as the ranking Democratic member, poster of US President-
elect Joe Biden and
and then as the chairman.” running mate Kamala
Still, Delhi wonders whether the Biden presidency Harris in a street in
will have something to say about India’s domestic Mumbai on Nov 8. With
issues, ranging from the Citizenship Amendment the view that Prime
Minister Narendra Modi
Act – a law critics say goes against the secular was far too cosy with
traditions of the country as it grants religion-based President Donald Trump,
citizenship – to alleged human rights abuses in India has been recalling
Kashmir. Mr Biden’s long-time
support for closer ties
India has traditionally protested against any
with New Delhi.
comments on its internal policies, but this is a PHOTO: REUTERS
bigger issue for Mr Modi, whose politics revolve
around nationalism and the idea of a strong India.
The Prime Minister may prove adept at cultivating
Mr Biden, said Professor Harsh Pant, director of “Mr Modi has been nimble in his outreach to
studies and head of the Strategic Studies Programme both (Barack) Obama and Trump. He dealt with
at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. them very differently. With Trump, the approach
9Modi decided to take was to develop a personal Professor Shankari Sundararaman at Jawaharlal
relationship, massage his ego, which I think paid Nehru University said that she did not envisage a
dividends for India. With Biden, the idea is to go major shift. “The pivot to Asia and rebalancing came
back to the basics of the Obama administration and under Obama, and the free and open Indo-Pacific
to use that as a launching point.” vision under Trump. I don’t see Biden changing the
India has positioned itself strategically closer to US approach to maintaining the normative order.”
the US amid its worst border clashes in over four Still, some expect initial turbulence. Retired
decades with China, which saw Delhi throw off naval commodore C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the
hesitation in inviting Australia to join the Malabar independent think-tank Society for Policy Studies,
naval exercises involving Japan and the US. said: “There is certain baggage from the Trump period.
The grouping is viewed as adversarial by Beijing. India had in a way aligned itself with the Trump
The growing presence of China in the Indian presidency in a more visible manner than is the norm.”
Ocean is a worry as well, and will likely remain a He added: “There will be some turbulence in the
point of convergence for India and the US. early stages, but continuity will remain.”
Pyongyang stays mum
CHANG MAY CHOON Whatever a Biden administration pursues, North Korea’s bottom
South Korea
Correspondent In Seoul
line on nuclear arms will remain unchanged, say experts.
THE SILENCE IS DEAFENING IN PYONGYANG preoccupation with the Covid-19 pandemic.
after Mr Joe Biden’s victory in the United States What is clear, however, is that it will be carefully
presidential election. watching the leadership transition in Washington
Perhaps, not surprisingly, as political watchers and recalibrating its position in dealing with its
are already speculating about a shift in US policy biggest “enemy”.
towards North Korea – towards tighter sanctions Whatever a Biden administration pursues,
changmc@sph.com.sg and less personal diplomacy. Pyongyang’s bottom line remains unchanged –
Experts say Pyongyang’s reaction could be a signal sanctions relief, economic aid and cancellation of
of its solidarity with President Donald Trump, whom joint military exercises with South Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has met three On top of this, it wants to keep its arsenal of
times since 2018, or perhaps indicates the regime’s nuclear warheads and missiles intact.
Some observers say North Korea may fire a
missile some time around Mr Biden’s inauguration
ST ILLUSTRATION: to test waters, but others feel the regime may not
MANNY FRANCISCO
make any move in the next few months.
Mr Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat
who defected to the South and is now a member of
the National Assembly in Seoul, believes Pyongyang
is sending two messages with its current stance.
“First of all, the most important thing for Kim
Jong Un now is not to protect North Korea from
external military threats, but to protect it from the
coronavirus invasion, so if the US does not touch
him first, he will remain quiet during Biden’s policy
review period,” said Mr Tae.
“Next, North Korea wants to convey the message
that sanctions policies such as Obama’s ‘strategic
patience’ will not be effective in the future, given
its own self-containment policy.”
‘THUG’ AND ‘RABID DOG’
One can only make an educated guess of how the
“thug”, as Mr Biden has called Mr Kim, and “rabid
dog”, as North Korean media labelled Mr Biden,
may interact.
10 AsianInsider December 2020Dr Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute in negotiating for arms reduction with the former
think-tank noted that Mr Biden has “consistently Soviet Union means that he would be interested
stuck to the view that a summit with Kim would in such discussions with North Korea too, said the
only be possible if certain conditions were met”, and former North Korean diplomat.
that his “apparent scepticism towards a summit... He added that Pyongyang’s interest in arms
stems fundamentally from his view of Kim as a reduction negotiations, as opposed to abandoning
‘dictator’, ‘tyrant’, ‘butcher’ and ‘thug’.” all of its nuclear weapons, was apparent from a
This means a Biden administration will “likely statement on July 10 by Mr Kim’s sister Yo Jong,
rely on pressure and even stronger sanctions” who is now widely regarded as a powerful figure in
against the North Koreans, said Dr Cheong. the North Korean hierarchy, perhaps second only to
Mr Kim has kept mum for now but Mr Tae said her brother. She said “it would be easier and more
North Korea has been “analysing Biden for a very favourable for the US to rack its brains to make
long time”. our nukes no threat to them, rather than for us to
The US President-elect’s previous experience dispose of our nukes”.
What Biden
means for Asia
TIES BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ASIA ARE SET TO
improve under US President-elect Joe Biden, ushering in a
period of greater predictability and stability for the region,
according to Singapore’s veteran diplomats Tommy Koh
and Chan Heng Chee. They were speaking at ST’s webinar,
Geopolitical Reset 2021, part of a series that aims to help
readers make sense of what might lie ahead.
Here are some excerpts from the webinar.
What do you anticipate will be the Biden
administration’s top foreign policy
priorities?
Prof Chan Heng Chee: “If you read everything that
Biden has written or said, he hasn’t banged up China that
much. There’s not much he can do but he hasn’t added oil
to the fire. So I think you will see some nuancing. I think the
decibels will be toned down. And that’s plenty. The world is
rooting for that.
Prof Tommy Koh: Biden will elevate, as Obama did, the From left: Ambassadors-
importance of South-east Asia and Asean to US policy. And How will the Biden administration at-large and former
I expect either President-elect Biden or Vice-president- approach the Taiwan issue? ambassadors to the United
elect Kamala Harris to attend the annual Asean summit and Prof Chan: At one point, I thought, is the Trump States Tommy Koh and
related summit. administration trying to provoke a conflict over Taiwan? Chan Heng Chee with
panel moderator Vikram
It’s sending secretaries, Cabinet secretaries to Taiwan. The Khanna, Straits Times
Do you think Biden’s team will lift the package that they are offering – the arms package – is more associate editor, at The
existing trade tariffs on China? than any other administration would have offered. So are Straits Times’ inaugural
Prof Koh: The Trump administration appeared to want to they provoking China? I think that’s one place where you will Geopolitical Reset 2021
find the decibels lowered, the temperature lowered. webinar on Nov 19.
decouple the two economies. It would be extremely painful
PHOTO: ST FILE
to both sides and makes no economic sense. I expect the
Biden administration to stop this, to stop the attempt to What about Hong Kong?
decouple the two economies. There are trade problems Prof Koh: There will be an impasse. I think that
between them for sure, but these can be settled bilaterally neither side has room to give away. For the Chinese, it’s
through negotiation or through WTO. They need not be a sovereignty issue. They have every right under their
turned into a national strategic issue. Constitution (to introduce) this national security law in Hong
Prof Chan: The United States and China at this point, Kong. The British said the Chinese have broken their treaty
there’s an opportunity... they may not reset, but they may commitment, the Chinese don’t agree. The US sees this as an
rethink. And you can go down a slightly different pathway, oppression of democracy and human rights in Hong Kong.
though I fully agree with what everyone has said that it’s So there’s an impasse, they will never agree. On this, the best
very hard for the United States to walk away from this firm we can expect is an agreement to disagree.
stance... I sort of feel right now, it’s very hard for the United Watch The Great Reset webinars here: https://str.sg/JESf
States to do any economic transaction or activity with China – Aw Cheng Wei
without thinking about national security.
11Special Report
Professor Sarah Gilbert,
a leader of the team
working on Britain’s Oxford
University-AstraZeneca
vaccine, says a lot of
Nations step up hunt for
vaccines for the world
need to be made quickly.
PHOTO: REUTERS suitable vaccines
MAGDALENE FUNG With vaccine distribution set to initially receive less of the precious commodity and
at later stages than their American and European
Assistant Foreign
Editor
start soon, some worry that clinical counterparts. Richer and more powerful countries,
trials have been too rushed. as well as those that helped in testing or producing
the vaccines, may also gain access to them sooner.
Upon receiving the vaccines, governments will
THE HOTLY ANTICIPATED COVID-19 VACCINES have to get them into their citizens’ arms as soon
are almost here. Now for the issue of how to dispense as possible to bring a swift end to the pandemic.
them to the masses. Pertinent issues include who among the populace
Across the globe, governments are gearing up to will be entitled to a spot at the front of the queue.
roll out nationwide inoculation campaigns, as the Priorities will differ from country to country.
magfung@sph.com.sg development of a handful of experimental vaccines Malaysia, for one, has said it will focus on inoculating
inches closer to the finish line. They are set to face only adults, as the experimental vaccines have yet to be
a host of challenges and judgment calls to be made tested on children under the age of 12. The US-Germany
in their vaccination strategies. team working on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has only
With several vaccines having proved effective in just begun testing on teenagers.
large clinical trials, regulators may grant approval Indonesia intends to cover two-thirds of its
for use very soon, and distribution is set to start people aged 18 to 59 who are deemed fit and
immediately afterwards. without pre-existing health conditions, as most
“We need to be able to make a lot of vaccine for of the vaccine trials have excluded people outside
the world quickly… (so) diversity is going to be this age bracket. Healthcare and emergency services
good here,” said Professor Sarah Gilbert, a leader of workers will get the shots before everyone else. The
the team working on Britain’s Oxford University- elderly can get vaccinated on a voluntary basis.
AstraZeneca vaccine, in an Associated Press report. Japan, meanwhile, plans to grant its elderly
priority over those with chronic diseases, as research
WHO GOES FIRST, AND WHY? shows older people face significantly higher risks of
With most of the vaccine frontrunners involving contracting severe Covid-19. The country has the
Western developers, Asian nations are expected to world’s highest elderly population, with nearly 29
12 AsianInsider December 2020per cent – more than one in every four people – EXPERIMENTAL SHOTS
aged 65 or older. In Russia and China, large numbers of people have
India is likely to give its healthcare and frontline already received experimental vaccine shots.
workers topmost priority as “they are at maximum Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine has been administered
risk of exposure to the virus”, a senior health to at least tens of thousands of volunteers outside
ministry official said. The strategy makes sense clinical trials, including medical workers and school
as it is paramount for India – with the world’s teachers.
second-highest number of Covid-19 cases after Geography teacher Leonid Perlov, 60, told the
the United States – to keep its healthcare system Washington Post that he declined a vaccination
up and running to deal with its flood of infections. offer as “it has not passed all of the necessary stages
Malaysia and India are looking into offering free of testing”.
vaccinations, while Japan has already confirmed it “The biology teachers are (also) not in a hurry
will do so for all its residents. Indonesia is covering to get vaccinated,” Mr Perlov noted of the response
vaccinations for 30 per cent of those in its target among his peers. “They’re more cautious. But the Mandatory
vaccination group, while the others have to pay for history teachers are the ones ready to volunteer.” vaccination is
their own shots. In China, about a million Chinese people have rarely justified.
Speed is not a key concern for all, though. South been inoculated with a Sinopharm vaccine – one of
Korea is in no hurry to ink deals despite having
The successful
the country’s frontrunners – despite the state firm
been offered over 30 million doses of vaccines by having yet to show solid late-stage clinical data of
roll-out of
pharmaceutical firms. its efficacy. Two doses will cost under 1,000 yuan Covid-19
“What’s important is to choose the safest and (US$150, S$200). vaccines will
most effective vaccine and to acquire them at an
acceptable and reasonable price,” Health Minister
“Among construction personnel, diplomats, require time,
and overseas students who have travelled to more
Park Neung-hoo said. South Korean drugmakers than 150 countries in the world, there has not
communication
such as SK Bioscience and Celltrion are also been a single case of infection after inoculation,” and trust.”
developing their own Covid-19 vaccines. Sinopharm said this month.
“There’s no reason to bear the risk and rush
to pre-order vaccines when you can maintain a ATTITUDES TOWARDS VACCINES
(comparatively) low number of cases,” Dr Chul- — DR VAGEESH JAIN,
Chinese citizens have among the world’s highest University College
woo Rhee, a research scientist at the International Covid-19 vaccine acceptance rates, according to
Vaccine Institute in Seoul, told the Wall Street London Institute for
an Ipsos survey conducted jointly with the World Global Health.
Journal in a report. “South Korea is not in an urgent Economic Forum, which polled more than 18,000
situation like the US or Europe.” adults from 15 countries last month.
Some 85 per cent of Chinese respondents
A DELICATE BALANCE said they would definitely get inoculated when a
A recent US study has suggested that prioritising Covid-19 vaccine is available. Indians were the most
vaccinating seniors aged above 60 would have the willing to do so, at 87 per cent, with South Koreans
biggest impact in lowering Covid-19 deaths, while in the third spot at 83 per cent. The French were
vaccinating young adults first would have a greater the most resistant to the idea, at just 54 per cent.
impact on lowering transmission rates. In that light, Those who said they did not want to receive a
most countries’ vaccination strategies appear aimed coronavirus vaccine were chiefly concerned about
first and foremost at preventing deaths. side effects – with respondents in Japan and China
In Europe, Britain is taking a largely age-based among those most worried – or that the clinical
approach, with elderly care home residents and trials had been too rushed. A recent US study points
people aged over 80 on top of its list. Staff in care To be sure, vaccine makers will need a lot more to most countries’
homes and healthcare settings are also prioritised data on how well their products perform in different vaccination strategies
to minimise the risk of transmitting the disease being aimed first and
age and ethnic groups and among people with health foremost at preventing
to their charges. Getting inoculated will cost £25 conditions, before regulators can give them the deaths.
(US$33, S$45) for a two-dose regimen. green light for public use. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
France’s inoculation guidelines also include
prioritising its five million workers in high-risk
jobs, such as shop employees and transport workers
with frequent public contact. This came after public
consultation to ensure enough people would choose
to get vaccinated.
In the US, its National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering and Medicine have proposed a five-
phase plan with healthcare workers and first
responders on top of the list followed by people
with high-risk underlying conditions and older
adults in densely populated settings.
13For now, no country has announced plans to make are considering ways to implement mandatory
Covid-19 vaccination mandatory. Some governments vaccination policies.
have already ruled this out, including France, Britain “The less burdensome it is for an individual to do
and Japan, though they stressed that citizens would something that prevents harm to others, and the
be strongly encouraged to get the shots. greater the harm prevented, the stronger the ethical
“Mandatory vaccination is rarely justified,” reason for mandating it,” said Dr Alberto Giubilini
said Dr Vageesh Jain from the University College from The Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics
London Institute for Global Health. “The successful and author of the book, The Ethics of Vaccination.
roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines will require time, Immunologists agree that countries would
communication and trust.” have to inoculate around 60 to 70 per cent of their
Other health experts have argued the case for populations to achieve herd immunity against the
compulsory inoculation for some groups as it could coronavirus. Exactly how to do so will be a key
significantly lower the risk of seriously harming or challenge for governments around the world in
even killing others. Several airlines and employers the year to come.
Vaccine rush
There are at least 48 Covid-19 vaccine candidates in clinical trials. Vaccine efficacy is the extent
Here are some of those ahead in the race or cited as front runners in their respective regions. to which a vaccine achieves
its intended effect under
ideal circumstances, such as
VACCINES in a randomised clinical trial,
while its effectiveness is its
Company Type Doses Days between Efficacy* Storage Price/ performance in real-world
doses temperature dose conditions.
US$ EFFICACY RATE
Oxford University- Viral vector Regular refrigerator
AstraZeneca 28 62% to 90% $4
(genetically modified temperature
United Kingdom virus) If a vaccine is
said to have a
Moderna RNA 28 -20 deg C $25-$37 90%
United States (part of virus genetic 95% efficacy rate,
up to 6 months
code) it means that the rate of
Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 cases was reduced in
United States/ RNA 28 95% -70 deg C $20 the vaccinated population by
90 per cent, compared with
Germany those who received the
Gamaleya placebo.
Viral vector 21 Regular refrigerator $10
(Sputnik V) 95% temperature
Russia
There is no data yet on whether the
Sinopharm 14-21 – Regular refrigerator $76 illness was milder in those who were
China Inactivated virus temperature vaccinated but nonetheless
developed Covid-19.
Sinovac 14 – Regular refrigerator $14-$30 The three vaccine front runners can
China Inactivated virus
temperature stop people from getting sick with
*Based on preliminary trial results; China and Russia have yet to provide solid efficacy data Covid-19 but they may still be able
to transmit the disease to others.
COVID-19 VACCINES SECURED IN ASIA NOTES: *Assuming plan to
Country Type(s) of vaccines secured Doses secured Doses needed* Estimated roll-out cover 70 per cent of population
in a two-dose regimen.
Singapore Govt is working to secure a portfolio of vaccines Not available 8 million Unknown **Indonesia plans to cover only
Malaysia A five-year deal for Chinese vaccines, Pfizer At least 12.8 million 46 million Q1, 2021 two-thirds of its target
vaccination group and cater for
Indonesia AstraZeneca, Sinopharm, Sinovac, a Covax deal 189 million 247 million** End-Jan an extra 15% of spare supply.
Thailand AstraZeneca 26 million 93 million Mid-2021
Japan AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Novavax, Moderna, Shionogi Over 540 million 177 million H1, 2021 Sources: LIM POH LIAN, BBC,
GAVI, MOH, NYTIMES, WHO,
South Korea Covax deal to secure vaccines for 10 million people 20 million 60 million Q2, 2021 IPSOS, WORLD BANK,
China Private deals with AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Gamaleya. Not available 1.96 billion End-2020 COMPANIES, GOVERNMENTS,
Vaccines from state-owned firms Sinopharm, Sinovac NEWS REPORTS PHOTOS:
India REUTERS
Australia AstraZeneca, Sputnik V Not available 1.9 billion Feb/March
STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS:
AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Novavax, CSL 135 million 36 million Jan/Feb LEE HUP KHENG, LIM KAILI
14 AsianInsider December 2020Where vaccines are made
As a few vaccine candidates show promise in the race to find a solution for the
Editor Says coronavirus pandemic, global attention is now turning to where the drugs can be
manufactured, how quickly they can be made and whether the world’s vaccine
factories even have the capacity to produce them. Here’s a visual snapshot.
Why the roll-out of Covid-19
vaccines faces difficult questions LOCATIONS OF THE WORLD’S VACCINE MANUFACTURERS*
The race to disseminate the Covid-19 vaccine is • The vaccine makers fall into two broad categories – makers of Number of vaccine
on. While it is a tremendous feat to have several drug substances (DS) and those that make drug products (DP). manufacturers surveyed
Covid-19 vaccines emerging from trials within • Drug substances are also known as active ingredients, 2 36
a year, it’s time to take a sober look at the while drug products typically refer to the final marketed dose.
difficult questions, says editor-in-chief of The NORWAY SOUTH KOREA 5
Straits Times, Mr Warren Fernandez. CANADA 5 BRITAIN 4
FINLAND
Who should get the vaccine first, and RUSSIA
FRANCE 8 RUSSIA
why? Will getting a jab be a choice or a
responsibility? Who should bear the cost? How UNITED
can it be made at scale, and safely? Find out STATES SPAIN 2 UKRAINE CHINA JAPAN 7
more in this episode of Editor Says here: 36 GERMANY POLAND
11
https://str.sg/JbyU SENEGAL INDIA VIETNAM 3
MEXICO 5 16
Editor Says is a ITALY 2 THAILAND
new weekly video SAUDI
BRAZIL ARABIA INDONESIA
series where Mr NOTE: Numbers on map 2 2
Fernandez discusses reflect only quantity of AUSTRALIA
the top story of the vaccine manufacturers
and not how many ARGENTINA 2 SOUTH BANGLADESH
week, why it matters facilities each operates. AFRICA 2 2
and what’s next.
Global capacity
for Covid-19 vaccines 16.3 billion according to British research firm
Airfinity in October. Actual viable
doses may be only a third of that
doses
Will there be enough
through 2021: after factoring in failure risks.
vaccines? DRUG-SUBSTANCE
MANUFACTURERS*
DRUG-PRODUCT
MANUFACTURERS*
Projected available capacity from Q4 2020 Projected available capacity from Q4 2020
GIVEN A GLOBAL POPULATION OF 7.8 BILLION through 2021 through 2021
and with the World Health Organisation putting the Total in thousand litres Total in million doses
Covid-19 herd immunity threshold at around 70 India China
per cent, about 11 billion doses of vaccine would be North America
required if any of these candidates prove effective. Europe
The figure has yet to factor in wastage from North America Rest of Asia/
potential challenges in producing, transporting, Oceania
Rest of Asia/ Europe
storing and handling them. Oceania
The world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, the South America India
Serum Institute of India, has already warned that China South America
there will simply not be enough Covid-19 vaccines Africa Africa
to go around until the end of 2024 at the earliest.
“It’s going to take four to five years until everyone 0 1,200 2,400 0 5,000 10,000
gets the vaccine on this planet,” its chief executive NOTE: Data reflects Covid-19 vaccine production NOTE: Data takes into account recent manufacturing
Adar Poonawalla told the Financial Times in capacity based on microbial or yeast expression discussions and publicly announced deals that have
September as he warned that companies were not systems, recombinant protein from suspension cells reduced projected manufacturing capacity.
and insect cells, viruses and DNA. *Data was collected from 113 vaccine manufacturers
increasing capacity quickly enough. between May and June 2020.
The most recent estimate on global Covid-19
vaccine manufacturing capacity has British research WORLD’S BIGGEST VACCINE MAKERS
firm Airfinity putting it at more than 16 billion by
the end of 2021. BY VOLUME BY CAPACITY RANK
Actual viable doses may fall by as much as two- India’s China GlaxoSmithKline
thirds, though. Furthermore, 9.5 billion doses of boasts the world’s largest
1 (Headquartered in
Serum Institute is
the Covid-19 vaccine have already been reserved the world’s biggest vaccine manufacturing capability. London, Britain)
by the world’s richer nations. vaccine manufacturer by Merck & Co
The US could have access to over a billion doses the number of doses made The country has about 2 (New Jersey, US)
from just Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech next year,
and sold globally. 5,300 to 7,000 Sanofi
more than is needed for the country’s 330 million small vaccine producers
in a vast, fragmented market.
3 (Paris, France)
residents. – Magdalene Fung
It is boosting capacity to make
Pfizer
1 billion BY REVENUE 4 (New York, US)
World’s
Covid-19 vaccine doses Novavax
through 2021.
five biggest 5 (Maryland,
vaccine makers 15US)
Source: COALITION FOR EPIDEMIC PREPAREDNESS INNOVATIONS, AIRFINITY STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICSThe vaccine – reported as being as more than 90
per cent effective at preventing Covid-19 – must
be used in a few weeks or stored in an ultra-cold
freezer for up to six months.
Private companies like Ford Motor have also
ordered specialised freezers to ensure its factory
workers – considered essential in most states – have
access to vaccines, reported Reuters.
Meanwhile, Germany, which has recorded around
16,000 deaths and over one million cases, plans to
set up 60 special vaccination centres equipped with
ultra-low-temperature freezers.
German firm va-Q-tec, which specialises in cold
storage, is expanding its fleet of rental containers
An employee loading a Vac-Q-Case into a refrigerated shipping container marked with
“minus 70 deg C” in Wurzburg, Germany, on Nov 18. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG to transport vaccines.
Britain’s Department of Health and Social Care
has provided general practice clinics with an
Surge in demand globally for additional £150 million (S$268 million) to support
the vaccine roll-outs in coming months.
ultra-cold freezers ahead of Logistics companies UPS, FedEx and DHL are
also getting ready to handle vaccines that need
Covid-19 vaccine roll-out
cold storage. DHL has opened a new cold facility
in the US, while FedEx has been adding freezers
and refrigerated lorries to its fleet.
UPS has built two freezer farms – in the
Netherlands and the US – to house a total of 600
Speciality freezer makers warn of deep-freezers that can reach temperatures as low
TAN TAM MEI as minus 80 deg C. It will also start making dry ice
months-long waits for units, as at its US facilities and distribute ultra-cold freezers
governments place orders as part to doctors’ offices, pharmacies and urgent-care
facilities that might store vaccines.
of vaccine distribution chains Mr Gian Gandhi, of the Unicef supply division,
the world’s largest buyer of vaccines, said Unicef
RIGOROUS COLD STORAGE REQUIREMENTS and the World Health Organisation have installed
for housing Covid-19 vaccines have ignited global more than 40,000 fridges to store vaccines in low-
demand for specialised freezers as nations gear up income countries, mostly Africa, in recent years,
for the fight to suppress the virus. reported The Guardian.
tammei@sph.com.sg Much of the focus is on the Pfizer-BioNTech Unicef has also bought hundreds of millions
vaccine. It needs complex and ultra-cold conditions, of syringes ready to be shipped once vaccines are
below minus 70 deg C or more, for long-term storage, available.
which could hinder its distribution to areas lacking Logistics hurdles associated with the cold-supply
proper facilities. chain pose challenges to vaccine delivery. Research
This is forcing countries to step up cold storage by DHL and consultancy firm McKinsey found that
infrastructure and delivery logistics in readiness for insufficient “last-mile” cooling facilities in the final
The vaccine the vaccine roll-out, possibly in the coming months. delivery stages and a lack of storage at clinics in
large parts of Africa, Asia and South America would
– reported as Pfizer plans to supply 50 million doses this
hinder the distribution of vaccine, reported The
being more year and a further 1.3 billion next year, with 100
million going to the United States, 200 million to Financial Times.
than 90 per the European Union and 40 million to Britain. DHL also warned that two-thirds of the world’s
cent effective Countries in South America and the Asia-Pacific
population are unlikely to have easy access to
any vaccine that needs to be stored at freezing
at preventing have also pre-ordered the vaccine, reported The
temperatures.
Covid-19 – must Guardian. Some speciality freezer makers have
Other potential vaccines, such as the candidate
already warned of months-long waits for units as
be used in a few governments worldwide place orders as part of
from US firm Moderna – said to be 94.5 per cent
weeks or stored vaccine distribution chains, which involve complex
effective in clinical trials – will be easier to roll out
in warm climates and resource-poor settings.
in an ultra-cold and costly deep-freeze warehouses, refrigerated The Moderna candidate can be kept at minus
freezer for up to vehicles and vaccination points. 20 deg C, similar to home freezers, and other
six months. In the US, with over 270,000 deaths and around vaccines developed by Johnson & Johnson of the US,
13.5 million cases, the authorities are preparing AstraZeneca in partnership with Oxford University,
to ship 6.5 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and one from France’s Sanofi and British drugmaker
vaccine by mid-December using special coolers GlaxoSmithKline, are expected to be stored and
packed with dry ice. shipped in an unfrozen state.
16 AsianInsider December 2020You can also read
