The Future Of Public Transport - Investing in a frontline service for frontline workers
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The Future Of Public Transport Investing in a frontline service for frontline workers
public transport to get into work, while others
Contributions and
INTRODUCTION are depending on public transport to access
acknowledgements healthcare, shop for food, or care for elderly
relatives. While social distancing means our public
transport can carry fewer people than in
C40 Public transport, like so many other sectors, has
pre-pandemic times, the need for the service
Daniel Firth, Kate Laing, Mariana Berganton, been severely impacted by restrictions put in
remains. Public transport workers themselves are
Markus Berensson, Honorine van den Broek place to contain the spread of COVID-19.
frontline workers and get other key workers to
d’Obrenan, William Roderick, Simon Roberts Although these restrictions have varied from
their jobs. In a crisis, we are all depending on
month to month and from city to city, they have in
public transport, whether we are direct users or
WSP almost all cases resulted in reduced movement.
not.
Blair Underhill, Adrian Lightstone, Paul People who can work from home have been
Tétreault, Anika Muhammad, Alec Knowles asked to do so and we have all been required to
Public transport will help get us out of this crisis,
reduce trips to meet family and friends or for
as part of a green and just recovery
Goudappel leisure and shopping. At the same time, urban
Dirk van Amelsfort, Vincent Wever, Lamar public transport is based on large numbers of
The pandemic has caused a rise in
van Frederikslust people gathering in restricted spaces. This is
unemployment. As society starts to re-open,
precisely the kind of environment we have been
public transport can play a major role in
International Transport Workers Federation asked to avoid to stop the spread of COVID-19.
(ITF) supporting a green and just economic recovery
Alana Dave, Claire Clarke, James and help people back into work. A strong public
Fewer people using public transport means fewer
Bartholomeusz, Luke Menzies transport system increases access to employment
ticket sales and reduced revenues. In other
and education opportunities without increasing
sectors, lower revenues would be addressed
The International Association of Public costs.
Transport (UITP) through cost cutting. These may include closures,
Philip Turner, Dionisio Gonzalez reduced service standards, job losses and delayed
Contents investments.
While technology means many employees will
continue to work from home, the need for
Christina Lumsden, Independent Modelling workers to travel to reach employment will
Consultant, Heather Allen, Independent Public transport isn’t like other sectors. It has
1. Introduction 3 continue. A strong public transport system
Consultant on Gender and Urban Transport played and continues to play a key role in keeping
increases employers’ access to a large number of
Valentina Montoya Robledo, Director of society moving even during this current crisis.
2. Public transport will 6 qualified workers. Public transport doesn’t only
Invisible Commutes Angie Palacios, Principal Public transport is a vital tool in getting us out of
mobilise the green and just get people to work, it creates jobs too. There are
Executive for Gender and Transport at CAF the crisis and promoting a green and just
recovery a wealth of good, green, long-term jobs within the
Julien Vincelot, Urban95 Coordinator at recovery. In the longer term, investment in public
transport sector, including opportunities to
Bernard Van Leer Foundation Ankita transport will help to avert future crises resulting
3. What has been the impact 12 strengthen women's employment 1, while city
Chachra, Knowledge for Policy Director at from global heating.
of COVID-19 on Public initiatives to expand public transport networks
Bernard Van Leer Foundation Ramya Vijaya, will create construction jobs as we ‘build back
Transport? Public transport keeps society moving while the
Professor of Economics and Global Studies better’. Further, public transport reduces drags on
at Stockton University Naomi Mwaura, crisis is still ongoing
4. Why do we need to 18 the economy like congestion, poor air quality and
Executive Director of Flone Initiative unreliable journey times for deliveries, and
protect public transport? While some people can work from home in the
reduces the overall costs of doing business in a
current crisis, the fact remains that a significant
5. Why protecting and 28 city, leading to new jobs across a range of sectors.
percentage are still having to travel into the
championing public workplace. These include doctors and nurses
transport is the Public transport is key to the #futurewewant
working in hospitals, carers looking after older
#futurewewant people, teachers educating our children and
Strong public transport networks are crucial to
workers making sure there is food on our shop
6. Conclusion: Invest in 44 social justice and equality. They enable affordable
shelves to buy. Many of them will be relying on
public transport for a green
and just recovery
References 48 3
access to the economic, social and cultural have connected people to jobs and education,
opportunities offered by cities especially for those aren’t being built. Cities are
who cannot afford to own a vehicle. They also missing out on new jobs across all kinds of
underpin all ambitious climate action in urban sectors that are created when employers are
transport. better connected to a large pool of skills.
Yet public transport is under threat The reduction in public transport ridership since
the COVID-19 crisis does not signal that the value
Without revenues to cover operational costs, of these systems has decreased. On the contrary,
public transport system operators are forced to cities struggle to function without a
introduce service cuts. This results in less frequent well-resourced public transport system. Further,
transport services, a loss of night time and reductions in public transport service levels and
weekend services, or routes cut altogether. Transit coverage will impact many users and reduce
workers - frontline workers - are losing their jobs accessibility – resulting in decreased access to
and their livelihoods. This creates a domino opportunities, jobs, and services for workers,
effect as other essential workers - such as along with decreased access to workers for
hospital staff, carers and teachers - find it harder employers. The functions and benefits of living in
and more expensive to get to their work. cities will disappear if we reduce reliable public
Alongside cuts, public transport expansion is transport services.
being delayed. The expansion of transport
infrastructure creates jobs in construction,
meaning many potential jobs are not being
realised. New public transport links that would
Image Source: Getty Images
4 5
CHAPTER 2
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in immense crisis of COVID-19. They call on national and
PUBLIC TRANSPORT WILL
suffering and hardship in our cities. It has exposed regional governments, financial institutions,
and exacerbated wider social and economic unions, youth, businesses and city dwellers to
inequalities and is fundamentally altering societies join and support their efforts. The taskforce shows
MOBILISE THE GREEN AND everywhere. We will feel the reverberations in our
cities for years to come.
how in their roles as city leaders, mayors can
ensure the world turns this tragedy – which has
JUST RECOVERY The measures taken to contain the spread of
caused so much hardship and pain – into an
opportunity for a better tomorrow.
COVID-19 are estimated to have wiped out 400
million full-time jobs in the second quarter of C40 mayors envision a future with jobs and an
2020 alone, resulting in a 14% contraction in inclusive economy for all. They want resilient
working hours compared with pre-crisis levels 2. and equitable communities, healthy people and
As a consequence of the pandemic, an estimated a thriving planet.
100 million people living in cities could fall into
poverty, with as many as 71 million falling into Fundamental to this vision is a sustainable,
extreme poverty 3 with urban women, minority efficient and safe public transport system.
and vulnerable groups being most at risk 4.
Governments must use stimulus funds to make
The pandemic has not affected people equally. public transport more accessible, reliable,
COVID-19 has exposed the existing stark frequent, affordable, well integrated, safe and
inequalities in our cities and in different parts of resilient to future crises in order to keep our cities’
the world. It has visited greater destruction on air clean and to prioritise the health of city
those with the least means to adapt. These residents.
include low income communities, isolated elderly
people, women and carers, under represented Working with the private sector, governments
communities, or those living in informal must also make it easier for cities to procure
settlements. If we are to emerge from COVID19 in electric buses while reallocating road space to
a just and sustainable way, we must act now to public transport, alongside developing and
change the systemic, underlying causes of investing in cycling and pedestrian infrastructure,
inequality. and electric-vehicle charging infrastructure. This
investment will help cities maintain and enhance
Overall, the crisis has exposed how vulnerable we some of the successful air quality, climate and
are to major global shocks. This is a critical road safety improvements introduced during
warning. The global consequences of climate lockdown and support the transition of all
breakdown and the breach of other planetary remaining road vehicles to zero emissions.
boundaries are set to become an even more
severe threat than the COVID-19 pandemic. We
must do much more to adapt our cities to meet Collaboration is key to realising the mayors’
the challenges of health and climate crises to vision for a green and just recovery.
come and to increase the resilience of our
fundamental services and infrastructure. In our call for action on public transport, C40 is
partnering with The International Transport
The C40 Mayors Taskforce For A Green And Just Workers’ Federation (ITF), uniting transport
Recovery was convened in 2020 to make workers’ unions in 150 countries and representing
recommendations on how cities and city-dwellers more than 20 million transport workers.
can recover swiftly from the health and economic
7
2.1 Jobs and an inclusive economy: pathway is greater along with the potential job reduces the costs of transporting people, goods
Support and lift up essential workers C40 Mayoral Principles of a green and just creation opportunity. and service delivery.
and create new, good, green jobs fast. recovery in public transport
Across almost 100 C40 cities, and their supply Some estimates suggest that these productivity
• The recovery from COVID-19 should not
Frontline workers are not just doctors and nurses. chains, a Green Recovery is estimated to generate or effectiveness benefits might generate twice as
be a return to ‘business as usual’ because
They are also those who care for the elderly and that is a world on track for 3C or more of 4.6 million public transport jobs between 2020 many new jobs than those directly within transit
teach our children. The pandemic has shown that overheating. and 20308. Scaled up to cities around the world operations.10
public transport staff are frontline workers too. • The recovery must be guided by an would mean tens of millions of new good green
adherence to public health and scientific jobs.
They ensure those who still have to travel to work,
expertise, in order to ensure the safety of
can get to work, and that everyone has access to 2.2 Resilience and equity:
those who live in our cities.
healthcare and other essential services. • Excellent public services, public
At a time of mass unemployment and economic Providing fundamental public services
investment and increased community hardship in many parts of the world, generating for all underpins a fair society and a
We recognise the profound value and resilience will form the most effective these green, new jobs today will benefit millions strong economy resilient to future
basis for the recovery of families tomorrow. These are good, green jobs
contribution public transport workers have made shocks.
• The recovery must address issues of essential to moving our cities towards a cleaner,
to our cities. There is a crucial need to protect
equity exposed by the impact of the crisis healthier future.
jobs in what is a vital public service. In a crisis like COVID-19 has exposed a lack of resilience in the
– for example workers now recognised as
this one we are all dependent on a strong public essential should be celebrated and face of extreme events. It has exposed the
transport system. Previous C40 research has shown that sustainable
compensated accordingly. Women, fragility and interconnectedness of urban systems.
in particular, have lost the greatest transport offers good employment potential, with
Funding cuts to, and neglect of, our public number of jobs and those on low incomes investment in transit infrastructure generating 30 During the course of the pandemic, public
transport system risks service reductions and job and single mothers will find it difficult to per cent more jobs than building roads. A 50 per transport has been dealt a severe blow, despite it
re-enter the economy without extra cent switch to electric vehicles could also
losses over the next decade. Today, 7.3 million providing a vital service at the heart of
support. generate 10 million jobs.9 We therefore need to
workers are formally employed in public transport • The recovery must improve the resilience sustainable, connected cities.
operations globally and, in a number of countries, accelerate investment in new and upgraded
of our cities and communities – this
this number is further increased by informal means investments should be made to public transport infrastructure alongside
Cities are already seeing signs of an increase in
workers. In the African and Latin American protect against future threats and to investment in zero emission bus fleets. By
car traffic as trust in public transport services
regions, informal jobs may represent up to 30-40 support those people most impacted by changing the current paradigm, greater diversity
starts to falter. A response to COVID-19 that does
climate and health risks, such as commu- in the work force can be introduced with
per cent of the total number of transport jobs 5. not centre the importance of public transport to
nities living in informal settlements. opportunities for women, ethnic minorities and
• Climate action can help accelerate cities is unsustainable – reducing connectivity,
In this research, C40 has compared public people with disability to find secure employment
economic recovery and enhance social increasing pollution and congestion, and
transport job creation under a Public Transport and also better reflect the needs of those who use
equity through the use of new exacerbating existing inequalities.
Neglect scenario and a Green Recovery scenario technologies and the creation of new public transport.
in four model cities that represent cities with industries and new jobs Our research shows that a recovery scenario
different levels of income and public transport • A commitment to do everything in city This will both deliver those new and green jobs which neglects public transport systems risks
governments’ power to ensure the and set us firmly on a path towards a zero-carbon
mode shares. In these four model cities, C40 shifting us further away from the trajectory we
recovery from COVID-19 is healthy, economy.
research estimates that a Green Recovery would equitable and sustainable need to be on to achieve the climate ambitions
generate between 6 and 10 times as many public • A commitment to use C40 Mayors’ laid out in the Paris Agreement.
transport jobs by 2030, compared to a Public collective voices and individual actions to Beyond the jobs directly related to the provision
Transport Neglect scenario, in three out of four ensure national governments invest in of public transport services, better public In Higher GDP, Higher Private Vehicle Use cities,
model cities 6. In wealthier, higher private vehicle cities to deliver an economic recovery transport can reduce the cost of doing business in the transport sector is a significant source of
that is healthy, equitable and sustainable a city – again stimulating economic recovery from
use cities 7, the estimated job creation potential is emissions and this means these cities need to do
• A commitment to use the collective the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective public
significantly higher as a result of the very low more to meet their climate commitments. Yet, this
voices of C40 Mayors and individual
public transport mode share in 2020 and higher transport networks give employers access to a
actions to ensure international and research has found that if these cities neglect
transport emissions, meaning the scale of public larger pool of potential employees, increasing
regional institutions invest directly in public transport now, they risk making no gains in
transport investment to meet a 1.5 degree cities to support a healthy, equitable and the chances they can find the skills they need. It reducing their GHG emissions in the ten years to
sustainable recovery contributes to managing traffic congestion, and 2030.
8 9
An alternative scenario which prioritises 2.3 Health and wellbeing:
investment in public transport for a green and just Give space back to people and nature,
recovery – in line with commitments already rethink and reclaim our streets, clean
made by C40 cities in their Climate Action Plans
our air and create liveable local
(CAPs) to meet a 1.5 Pathway – would reduce
communities.
2030 emissions from urban transport in C40
cities by over half, compared to 2020.
A green and just recovery from the COVID-19
pandemic means maintaining access to
A Green Recovery would reduce C40 cities’
opportunities, reclaiming our streets and cleaning
cumulative GHG emissions from the transport
our air. To do this, we must reduce private vehicle
sector by 3.3 GtCO2e over the coming decade,
use while providing an alternative through public
Image Source: Getty Images
compared to a Business as Usual (BAU)
transport, walking and cycling infrastructure.
development, which represents more than all
GHG emissions that C40 cities emit in one year
Our research shows that cuts to public transport
(based on 2017 figures).
and associated increases in private car use results
in increased air pollution levels in all cities
The pandemic has brought into sharper relief the
compared to a green recovery. It is therefore
inequalities that exist in all of our cities. It has
essential to encourage a mode shift from private
demonstrated that the poorest and most
vehicles to public transport, as well as
vulnerable are often exposed to greater risk and
encouraging electrification of the public
find it harder to access opportunities for
transport fleet to improve air quality.
employment and education as well as essential
services. increases in life expectancy and combats
If we fail to do this, PM2.5 air pollution
concentration could increase by up to five per obesity, type 2 diabetes, stroke, cardiovascular
Investing in fundamental services, such as public diseases, breast and colon cancer, as well as
cent in some of modelled cities by 2030.
transport, strengthens resilience, equity and depression and dementia.
In contrast, investing in a green and just recovery
sustainability in our cities. A resilient, well
can reduce air pollution coming from transport by
resourced public transport system not only
45 per cent in cities with low private vehicle use,
underpins all ambitious climate action, it will also
and 14 per cent in cities with high private vehicle
increase the ability of cities to deal with future
use, compared to a Public Transport Neglect
shocks. Protecting and expanding public
scenario. A significant part of these air quality
transport is essential to build a more fair and just
improvements will be due to vehicle
society as it ensures fair access to essential
electrification.
services and jobs to all city dwellers.
Finally, increasing the mode share of public
This investment in public transport can speed up
transport also improves people’s health by
the recovery and be a source of jobs and
increasing active mobility. While cars, taxis and
economic prosperity to build strong and thriving
motorcycles bring commuters door-to-door,
economies in cities. To ensure this, green and just
public transport provides someone the
recovery programmes should provide equitable
opportunity for a few minutes of walking between
access to equal employment opportunities,
stations. This research has shown that even 6
increase women’s participation in the labour force
minutes of walking to and from a station twice a
and develop appropriate regularisation
day on a workday commute (amounting to a daily
mechanisms and social coverage for essential
total of 24 minutes of walking) delivers significant
informal workers in the sector.
10 11
CHAPTER 3 3.1.Global public transport systems Commuting to and from work typically accounts
are reeling from the impact of the for one third of the trips made in cities. The rest
WHAT HAS BEEN THE IMPACT OF pandemic are trips we make to see family and friends, for
leisure and shopping, and to access essential ser-
vices. The pandemic restrictions means a reduc-
COVID-19 ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT?
Public transport systems around the world have
seen big reductions in ridership as a result of tion in the number and length of these kinds of
restrictions introduced to combat the spread of trips.
COVID19
Urban public transport is based on large numbers
The severity of the restrictions have varied from of people gathering in restricted spaces – precise-
month to month and from city to city. In almost all ly the kinds of environments we have been asked
cases, those restrictions resulted in reduced to avoid to stop the spread of the coronavirus. As
movement of people as anyone who can work a result, social distancing regulations have been
from home has often been asked to do so. The implemented on many public transport systems
pandemic and the government’s attempts to to decrease transmission risk. This in turn de-
mitigate this crisis have an uneven impact on the creases the system’s carrying capacity.
population 11. Those who are already
disadvantaged are often less likely to have remote Some public transport riders have opted to buy
friendly jobs and thus are hit more severely 12. private vehicles for safe travel, despite
Furthermore, lower-income economies have sufficient evidence to demonstrate that, when
a lower share of jobs that can be done at home 13. measures recommended by the health authorities
Other workers have lost their jobs as a result of are impplemented, the risk of Covid-19
the economic downturn and are no longer transmission on public transport is very low.14
commuting using public transport services. These and other factors mean the use of public
transport ridership continues to be substantially
reduced compared to pre-pandemic levels as
seen in the graph below:15
Max and current % drop in public transport ridership
0%
0% ----
-----
--
----
----
---- Amman
----
----
----
-------
-- ----
--------
-- ----
-------
-- ---- Auckland
---------
-- -----
----------
-- ----
-----------
-- ----- Buenis Aires
-------------
-20% -- ----
------------
-- ---- -25%
--------------
-- -----
---------- --
-- -- -- Chennai
---------- ---
-- -- -- -
-- ----- --
----------- --
-- ----- -- -30%
---------- --
-- -- -- -- Istanbul
----------- ---
-- -- -- --
----------- --
-- -- -- --
---- ------ --
-- -- --- --
--
---- ------- ---
-- -- -- -41% Los Angeles
--
---- ------ --
-- --- --
-40% -
---- ------ --
-- --
-- --------
---- -- ----- ---
-- - -- Mexico City
---- -- ---- --
-- -------- --
---- -- ----- --
-- -50% --
-- -------- --
---- -- ---- ---
--
---- -- ---- --
-- -53% Moscow
-- --
---- --- ----- ---
-- -
---- -- ----- --
-- - -
-- -------
---- -- ---- --
-- -- -
---- -- -- -- ---
-- -60% - ------ - Nairobi
-- -----------
---- -- -- --
--
-60% -- -
---- -- -- -- ----
- -- --
----- -
---- -- ------ ---
-- --- New York
------
---- -- -- --
-- ---
-- -----
---- -- -- -- ----
-------- ---
Image Source: Getty Images
Image Source: Getty Images
---- --- -- --
-- - --
---- -- -- -- ----
- - - -- Paris
----- ---
---- -- -- ---
------ ---
---- -- --- -- -----
-- ---
Image Source: Getty Images
--
--
--- -- --- Rio de Janeiro
- -
-80% --
-- ---
-- --- Vancouver
-- -- ---
-87% ----
-
--
---
---
---
-
-100%
Jan-Feb Mar-Aug Sept-Oct
Source: https://www.c40knowledgehub.prg/artivle/COVID-19-Active-and-Sustainable-Mobility-Explorer
13
Decreased fare revenues and increased eliminated late weekend or night services. Such already seeing employee layoffs on public fares by between 10% and 25% to make up the
operating costs have led to funding gaps for cuts leave shift workers stranded. In cities with a transport systems, even when they have received short fall, government eventually acceded to
many public transport systems largely informal transit system dominated by pri- emergency funding as part of governments’ the industry’s demand to be allowed to carry a
vate bus operators, services are being reduced to COVID-19 response. full load of passengers.
Farebox revenue can make up a large proportion only the most profitable routes leaving people • Coronavirus emergency funding enabled
of total revenue for many public transport stranded, especially the poor who live on the most US transit agencies to avoid layoffs, yet The crisis has led to some transit agencies
systems. The decrease in use of public transport urban periphery. 22 per cent of agencies stated they had been cutting or delaying capital investments
has therefore directly impacted this key revenue • Almost two thirds (65 per cent) of transport forced to lay off staff in 2020.
generator. agencies in the United States reduced public • Nearly one in every four transit agencies With uncertain future ridership and revenues,
transport services during 2020, with nearly across the U.S. have indicated they may be agencies are pausing plans to renew their vehicle
At the same time, there have been increases in four in ten agencies considering additional forced to lay off employees going forward 20 fleets – scaling back infrastructure projects or
operating expenditures. These include employee cuts to service in 2021 to reduce their budget • In its worst-case scenario for 2021, the New even cancelling new BRT, metro or rail projects
training, the installation of equipment to keep gaps York MTA’s proposed budget includes more altogether.
workers and riders safe from coronavirus, and an • The Brazilian public transport sector regis than 9,300 layoffs 21, while gap measures • 26 per cent of North American transit agen-
expanded cleaning regimens for transit vehicles tered an economic loss of R$9.5 billion from New York State have pushed these cies reported plans to pause capital projects,
and stations. (US$1.7 billion) as transport demand plunged layoffs to 2023 22 while over half these agencies indicated a
by 80 per cent in 2020 in the country •The regional transit agency serving Vancou- planned reduction of service frequency in
Fare revenue reductions and increased operating • Rio de Janeiro’s bus system saw an estimated ver (TransLink) drew up plans to lay off 1,500 202126
expenses have resulted in large deficits in 2020 loss of R$500 million (US$100 million), as transit workers in May 2020 although this was • A BRT expansion project in the Seattle
and anticipated budget shortfalls for coming their buses were operating at 62 per cent of rescinded after the provincial government region is at risk of falling behind due to
years. capacity stepped in with support 23 COVID-19, with a $11.5 billion affordability gap
• In South Africa, informal operator associa- for this voter-approved project27
For example: tions were offered a one-off COVID-19 bailout Unfortunately, in cities where transport operations
• Public Transport operations in Greater Paris offer of R1.134bn (US$75m) to the entire are informal or operators rely entirely on fare In 2020, a UITP member survey catalogued the
(Ile-de-France) lost an estimated €2.6 billion industry 19. This was ultimately rejected by revenues and do not receive any government main impacts and approaches that transit
(US$3.6bn) in revenue between March and national associations as insufficient although subsidy, jobs and livelihoods are extremely authorities used to address both short and
September 2020 16 it opened the door for discussions between precarious. Transport workers are vulnerable to medium financial challenges.
• MTA in New York estimates a more than operators and national government about cuts in working hours, loss of earnings or layoffs
US$6 billion deficit in 2021 and a cumulative operational subsidy support and more without proper social protection. In some cases, The results (Fig. 4) indicate that cities and their
deficit of close to US$16 billion due to formalised operations in the future. informal transport workers often have no choice networks have seen their project pipelines
COVID-19 over a 5-year period 17 but to continue to work in order to earn a daily affected by the pandemic – either through a
• Europe-wide Farebox revenue losses were These cuts threaten public transport workers’ wage despite the risk to their health or revision of prioritisation, proposed reductions, or
estimated to be €40 billion (US$48bn) in jobs repercussions from the authorities24. a changed assessment of their impact on the local
2020 economy. 53 per cent of those surveyed had
• Transit systems in Spain lost €250 million per Essential workers rely on public transport to get • In Nairobi, more than half of all women postponed, delayed or were uncertain about their
month in fare revenues, while in Italy Farebox to work. Many more people need public transport workers in the matatu (private mini buses) projects’ future. 33 per cent were revising or
revenue losses were estimated to be €1.5 to access health services, food and vulnerable industry have lost their jobs due to operators scaling down transport investment projects.
billion (US$1.8bn) in 2020 18. relatives. This means public transport staff are going out of business, more than men’s jobs
themselves frontline workers. losses, with one third unable to make rent 3.2. What is the cost of saving public
Public transport systems are reducing services payments as a result46. transport?
to balance their budgets The pandemic has affected transport workers in
different ways. Where transport operations are • In South Africa, the national government Amost all public transport systems are dealing
To close the gap, many transit systems have been formalised, public transport agencies are required informal operators to reduce with a reduction in the numbers of riders causing
forced to reduce their services. Some have cut generally doing everything possible to protect passenger loads to 70 per cent 25. When a loss of fare revenue. However, some are in a
bus service frequency or suspended bus routes jobs – sometimes at the expense of reducing operators proposed to increase passenger better position than others.
altogether. Others have closed metro stations, or service and capital programmes. Yet we are
14 15
Expected impact to ongoing and
planned investment projects
14%
24% Continuous ahead
Postponned/Delays
0% Revising
29% Scaled down
9%
Accelerated
Uncertain
24%
Source: UITP COVID-19: THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT TO
THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT SECTOR (2021, members only)
This creates a challenge in estimating a global property taxes, sales taxes, fuel and parking taxes,
figure for the costs of saving our public transport employer taxes) and supplemented by
systems as the funding gap varies significantly commercial incomes (for example for retail space
across C40 cities. at stations, advertising on stations and vehicles,
or through the sale of property or development
Why are some systems merely struggling, while rights).
others are facing an existential threat?
In general, cities that rely heavily on fares to cover
A lot depends on the extent to which a city’s operational costs, like London, are facing bigger
public transport system relies on fares to fund its deficits as a result of the pandemic than cities
service. with a more diversified revenue base such as
Paris.
For example, in cities without a formalised public
transport system, riders can be paying 100 per Public transport will not only play a role in
cent of the services’ operational costs. managing the ongoing crisis, it will also play a
vital role in a green and just recovery from the
At the other extreme, a handful of cities have pandemic. Public transport systems will also help
done away with public transport fares altogether cities’ efforts to avert the climate crisis. This
and are instead covering operating costs through means the more important question is what is the
general or dedicated taxation. cost of NOT saving our public transport systems?
The majority of cities fall somewhere in between. Whatever the short term cost of taking action to
This means typically between 30 and 70 percent28 protect our public transport infrastructure now
of operating costs are covered through fares paid will be dwarfed by the medium and long-term
by the rider. The rest is then made up by a range cost of inaction.
of general or dedicated taxes (for example
16 17
CHAPTER 4 4.1 Public transport is a lifeline...
WHY DO WE NEED TO ...for domestic workers in Latin America.
PROTECT PUBLIC TRANSPORT
One in four working women in Latin America is a is more likely to be travelling to and from central
domestic worker29 and women make up 95 per business districts along the busiest transit routes.
cent of the 17 million domestic workers in the As well as time-consuming, these lengthy
region30. commutes cost money.
Domestic workers are dependent on public Reinalda, a domestic worker in a high-income
transport, with workers almost always travelling neighbourhood in Medellin, spends nearly a third
from low income neighbourhoods on the of her monthly income on transport.
periphery of cities into middle and high income
neighbourhoods spread all across the city. These The services she uses have been cut, making
are long, daily commutes that often involve them less frequent and more crowded. These
multiple changes – in fact the daily commute for journeys were already dangerous for women –
domestic workers in São Paulo is five hours, while overcrowded buses are known spaces for sexual
in Medellin it is four hours. assault. Now Reinalda faces a new danger. She is
scared of contracting COVID-19 and infecting her
In Colombia, where the average commute for employers and her family members. Sometimes
domestic workers is six hours, female domestic she instead chooses to walk for up to two hours
workers travel on average 42 per cent longer than to avoid the most crowded parts of her
the average formalised female worker31. The latter commute32.
19… for children and carers in Europe … for women in South Africa
Almost 90 million33 people in Europe look after Jono, a single caregiver with three children living Women are more likely to use public transport Busisine from Johannesburg travels four hours a
children, with women often taking on more in Amsterdam, travels to and from home, shops, than men in South Africa37. They are also more day in a shared taxi to get to her job as an
responsibility than men. kindergarten and work on a daily basis. It takes a likely to need public transport to access work insurance underwriter. Busisine has to walk some
lot of juggling to make sure he and his children opportunities and vital services such as distance to complete her trip following
Those caring for children make journeys that tend are able to reach their various daily destinations healthcare and groceries. the closure of some routes. She leaves work
to involve multiple stops to allow time to run on time. before dark to avoid walking in the streets
errands, such as grocery shopping or the school Under South Africa’s lockdown regulations, Spaza alone at night38.
run. These journeys take place outside peak On a typical day, Jono wakes up at 6.30am. By Shops, informal convenience shops often
periods when the frequency of public transport the time he has made sure his children have had run on local corners out of someone’s home, The pandemic has meant fewer people are
can be lower. breakfast and packed their schoolbags, the family needed permits to be able to trade. However, sharing taxis and higher transport fares.
is ready to leave the house at 8am. This leaves 30 these permits were hard to obtain and 80 percent This, combined with restricted local food trade,
The quality of urban public transport can have an minutes to drop his youngest child off at of these traders were forced to close. many South Africans who relied on public
impact on children’s development. Not only are kindergarten before arriving at work at 9am35. When lockdown started to ease and Spaza Shops transport like Busisane were forced to either
children more sensitive to external experiences were allowed to resume without permits, travel longer distances to purchase food,
and inputs, but for caregivers the stress involved The rush and stress of this daily commute means many could no longer afford to operate and food paying more for travel and food, or go hungry if
in travelling around the city on public transport access to essential childhood services has been prices were higher. they could not39.
can impact on the quality and amount of interrupted, and access to public space and
responsive care they can provide34. nature is restricted36.
20 21… for low income households in the United States … for female transit workers in Kenya.
More than one in five low income households in supermarkets, warehouses and transport depots. In Nairobi, less than ten per cent of people They found that half of all the women in the
urban areas in the United States do not have Low income Black and Hispanic communities are working in the matatu industry (private mini industry had lost their jobs. Operators have been
access to a car, meaning many people are entirely thought to be among the hardest hit44. buses companies) are women and 85 per cent46 put out of business by distancing restrictions that
reliant on public transport to access employment, of those who are employed in the sector are make it economically impossible to operate at
education and other opportunities40. In Pittsburgh, almost 40 per cent of all public conductors – one of the lowest ranking positions 60% of the normal carrying capacity of 60%.
transport users like Mosi are on a low income. in the industry. Nearly all these women now found it difficult to
The poor state of some public transport systems afford food and one third had defaulted on rent
in the US was already limiting access to jobs, Mosi works at a supermarket in Pittsburgh and is Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 90 per cent of payments47
opportunities, education and other services, the main breadwinner for the household. During Kenyans would use public transport daily.
primarily impacting low income communities41. the COVID-19 pandemic, he noticed the bus to However, restrictions put in place to stop the
This has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 work was coming less frequently or with spread of the virus have affected the transport
pandemic, with public transport ridership increased delays. When the bus did arrive, it was industry.
decreasing by up to 90 per cent42 causing many already full and people were unable to follow
agencies to cut vital services. social distancing guidelines. Mosi cannot afford a Flone Initiative, a women-led organization
car, but is considering getting one anyway. He is working to support women access to transport,
While many Americans are able to work from worried about being late for work and worried carried out a rapid assessment of the impact of
home, many others continue to rely on public about infecting his wife, who is in the high risk COVID-19 on women working in the matatu
transport to get to work43. These workers are group for COVID-1945. industry.
disproportionately people on low incomes
working in essential services like hospitals,
22 234.2 Public transport is an enabler of Investment in public transport has a positive These nodes where access is good can further
• Every $10 million in operating investment yields $32
opportunity impact even on those who do not use the enable the clustering of businesses with similar or
million in increased business sales.
services. The more people who choose an complementary products and competencies.
alternative to driving, the less road congestion • An estimated $39 billion of public transit
Cities thrive because they provide access to
results. Congestion increases travel time and fuel This clustering of companies – often-called expenditures flow into the private sector.
opportunities. A concentration of people in a
costs for everyone in a city, including freight agglomeration – further increases the spillover of
small area reduces the cost in time and money of • Home values were up to 24% higher near public
operators. That leads to rising costs of the goods ideas and innovation that drives business transportation than in other areas. Hotels in cities
exchanging ideas, culture, goods and services –
and services we purchase52. productivity 57. Even with increased levels of with direct rail access to airports raise 11% more
driving the prosperity of cities and their
working from home in certain sectors, many revenue per room than hotels in those cities
residents48 49. without60.
businesses will continue to benefit from the
Every dollar invested in public transit generates $3 in effects of better, more connected public transport
The more employment or educational economic growth and reclaims more of the $15 billion APTA Public Transportation Facts
systems.
opportunities urban residents have access to, in productivity we lose each year to traffic congestion
- Canadian Urban Transit Association estimate 53.
the more likely it is that they will find a job to
In contrast, deteriorating accessibility is a direct
match their skills. This increases the possibility of
drag on the economy. Longer, less reliable journey
a good wage. Accessibility to family and friends, Good accessibility is a strong driver of housing times both for public transport users and private
leisure and cultural opportunities are also all markets in cities. Places with good accessibility vehicle drivers as a result of increased congestion
essential to our broader welfare and happiness50. tend to be the most expensive to live in 54 55. have two impacts:
Affordable housing is more likely to be found in
As such, anything that makes it harder to move locations with poorer accessibility, meaning that • Increasedcosts of any business-related travel,
freely around the city will decrease these those in our cities who can least afford it will bear such as the delivery of goods or related to the
opportunities both for people on public transport the costs of decreased public transport services. provision of services
and people travelling alongside public transport.
Even when the pandemic is over, it seems likely • Increasedcosts of attracting and retaining
Decreases in public transport services or that those who can work from home will choose workers in congested areas where
cancelled service expansions will, of course, have to do so more often than before. Should that travel times and expenses are higher58.
a direct impact on those who use these services. happen, it provides an opportunity to re-focus
public transport services away from routes taking There are also costs to the broader economy 4.4 Public transport is a tool for
For example, riders will face longer journey times workers to and from city centre office jobs and resulting from increased private vehicle travel. social justice
and less reliable services. This means missing out towards better connecting all parts of the city. These include the health costs associated with
on opportunities like a better job or education in
poor air quality and noise. Public transport Marginalised groups – including women, people of
another part of the city. People who would have
4.3 Public transport is an engine of investment can also reduce vehicle collisions and colour, underrepresented communities, people
used planned new public transport services will
urban economies associated insurance costs, whereas higher car with disabilities, people with precarious
also miss out on faster, more reliable journey
use can increase the costs of death and serious employment, youth and essential workers – often
times, as well as the chance to reduce their
Just as it benefits individuals to have access to a injury59. rely heavily on public transport61.
transport costs by driving less. Their access to job
large number of potential jobs, there are benefits
opportunities and everything else the city has to
for employers in having access to a broad and This was true before the COVID-19 pandemic and,
offer declines. Limited access to, and safety of,
diverse labour pool. • Every $1 invested in public transportation generates if anything, it is even more true now. Losing
transportation disproportionately affects women $5 in economic returns.
access to public transportation could therefore
and is estimated to be the greatest obstacle to
Business productivity increases when it is easier • Every $1 billion invested in public transportation significantly impact job opportunities and
women’s participation in the labour market in
to recruit staff with the right skills. Good, supports and creates approximately 50,000 jobs. incomes for these marginalised groups:
developing countries, reducing their participation
comprehensive public transport systems increase
probability by 16.5 percentage points. This • Every $10 million in capital investment in public
access across the city while also increasing the
challenge also has a noticeable negative effect in transportation yields $30 million in increased
number of locations to which potential employees business sales.
emerging countries51.
can commute56.
24 25Employment sectors most affected by COVID-19 This can be seen in a number of US cities – for overall GHG emissions. In fact, for some eighteen 40 and 80 per cent by 2030, depending on the
have a disproportionate amount of women, example in Boston where public transport percent of cities where C40 holds data transport city characteristics, is required for cities to be on
Black, LatinX and Native American employees ridership among lower income cohorts fell by 32 is the largest source of emissions. In 9 per cent of track to meet a 1.5 degree target outlined in the
• These groups have been more vulnerable to per cent67, while for higher income cohorts the cities, transport makes up over half the GHG Paris Agreement.
unemployment and precarious employment decrease was 51 per cent. emissions.
compared to the US population as a whole62 While a substantial proportion of this can be
• This is also the case in many developing Similarly in Nashville, the public transport usage A reliable and efficient public transport network is made by increasing walking and cycling trips, a
country cities, where low income women have decrease among lower and higher incomes was vital to reducing emissions from transport, both strong, functioning public transport network will
been particularly hard hit63. 58 per cent and 77 per cent respectively68. as an action in its own right and as an enabler for be needed to achieve the Paris Agreement goals.
other ambitious actions.
COVID-19 has increased job precarity for young Higher income groups have more options to work Public transport also enables a fairer means of
workers from home or to choose other options, such as Nearly all of the 1.5 degree compliant Climate implementing policies that reduce overall vehicle
• One in six young people have stopped travelling by car. In contrast, public transport is Action Plans (CAPs) already produced by C40 mileage – such as Urban Vehicle Access
working since the onset of the crisis and often the sole option for lower income individuals, cities contain commitments to improve and Restrictions – by providing alternative means of
younger workers are also more likely to be despite them facing longer journey times and expand public transport. travel to the privately-owned car. This can then
employed in occupations highly impacted by higher fares which are often the consequence of increase the acceptability of such policies.
the pandemic, such as retail, catering and attempts to fill the funding gap. People who work Public transport can help to reduce GhG
entertainment64 night shifts are a small segment of the population emissions from transport by replacing trips For example, prior to the introduction of London’s
on the whole but are heavily reliant on public that might otherwise have been taken by private congestion charge, 300 additional buses were
The availability of a car and possession of a transport. Decision-makers do not always vehicles. This reduces the congestion that would introduced in central London to provide
driver’s license is lower for people of colour, recognise this and will cut evening services based have occurred from these additional trips, all alternative modes of travel for car drivers72.
people with lower incomes, women and elderly on passenger numbers (quantity) rather than while enabling densification in the city and
populations consequences for travellers (quality). These users reducing overall distances travelled. The electrification of public transport is also
• Even in wealthier cities with good public have a different demand profile than how happening at a significantly faster pace than the
transport systems and relatively low car use, traditional schedules are created and deployed, The impact on GhG emissions by investing in and electrification of private vehicles in cities. Whilst
decreased funding for public transport will highlighting a mismatch between needs and expanding public transport has been modelled. the sales of electric cars are rapidly growing,
negatively impact marginalised groups65 services69. electric cars made up just 2.6% of sales in 2019
A 2009 study in New York indicated that and 1 percent of global car stock.73
Initial findings regarding impacts of COVID-19 on transport emissions in the region would be at
access to transportation for people with 4.5 Public transport is a powerful least 30 per cent higher without Metropolitan Virtually all city light rail and metro systems now
disabilities in the US show that most public climate action Transportation Authority (MTA) services and that operate using electricity and great strides are
transport services have continued to exist at at least 18 million tons of GHG emissions per year being made in bus electrification.
similar pre-COVID19 levels have been saved as a result of MTA services70.
• The ongoing recovery and response pose At least eight C40 cities are currently procuring
greater risk to people with disabilities due to A similar study in Montreal in 2016 indicated that only electric buses and at least twenty nine have
fewer transport options if (para)transit services the public transport system in greater Montreal set ambitious targets for all new buses to be
are decreased66 saves 3.9 million tons of GHGs per year, or 55 per electric from 2025.
cent of transport emissions. For every ton of CO2
Since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, public emitted by the public transport network, 20 This matches the most ambitious national
transport ridership has dropped across all income tonnes were saved. commitments for the phasing out of new fossil
groups. fuel cars, and is well in advance of the ambitious
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, surface transport
In addition to the direct impacts of public 2030 date set by an increasing number of
Ridership has dropped more sharply in higher was one of the fastest growing sources of GHG
transport on CO2 reduction, it is important as part countries. As the pace of bus electrification
income groups which are more likely to have emissions in cities worldwide and one of the
of a wider climate strategy. continues at a higher rate than private vehicle
more transport options, such as a leading contributors to localised air pollution.
electrification, the resulting climate benefits of
privately-owned vehicle. Across all C40 cities where data is available,
The C40 McKinsey Focussed Acceleration public transport over private vehicles will
transport is responsible for around a quarter of
Research71 indicates that a mode share for continue to increase.
walking, cycling and public transport of between
26 27CHAPTER 5
WHY PROTECTING AND
CHAMPIONING PUBLIC TRANSPORT
IS THE #FUTUREWEWANT
To better understand the impacts of different Our analysis uses a combination of expert
recovery patterns for public transport over the knowledge and existing research to develop
next decade, this research developed a series of assumptions for these four typologies. The
scenarios. assumptions have been tested using model data
These scenarios support a structured analysis of representative of these four model city
the likely impacts for jobs, equity, GhG emissions typologies. This ensures they hold true from an
and urban air quality. They have been applied to emissions, air quality, and jobs creation
four city typologies in order to understand the perspective across city types.
impact for different kinds of cities that are
representative of C40’s diverse membership.
295.1 Model Cities 5.2 Scenario Development
Each C40 city has a different transportation profile Recognising the diverse set of variables that exist, we The unprecedented global public transport ridership We therefore developed three scenarios to depict
based on its unique geography, development developed city typologies in order to explore these decrease seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, along plausible public transport funding trajectories up to
patterns, traveller behaviours, governance and culture. more deeply using two primary parameters: GDP per with the uncertain future we now face, makes the year 2030. These scenarios build off existing
All cities have also been impacted by the COVID-19 capita and proportion of private vehicle use for scenario planning a particularly effective method for scenarios developed for C40’s Case For A Green And
pandemic in different ways. passenger trips. this exercise. Just Recovery and are expanded to include a
scenario where public transport funding is reduced
While point forecasts and sensitivity analysis are over a sustained period.
We then cross-referenced our city typologies with the This ensured representation within the model for effective for determining trendline trajectories,
six C40 global regions: North America; Europe; East cities across the world, aligning with work previously scenario planning allows for deviations in particularly All scenarios for this work have the horizon year of
and South East Asia; Latin America; South and West undertaken in the Mayors’ Agenda For A Green And uncertain assumptions. This helps to generate a better 2030.
Asia; Africa to ensure that model cities are broadly Just Recovery 74 . understanding of outcomes that may occur, should
representative of C40 cities across the world. these assumptions take a different path than what is
anticipated.
Business as usual:
Figure 1 displays C40 member cities against GDP/capita and proportion of
private vehicle use, Adapted GDP and Private Vehicle Use Figure, C40 2016. The business as usual scenario (BAU or base case) is a trendline forecast of what may happen if existing transport
investment continues, with no notable change during the COVID-19 recovery. This scenario projects current levels
of climate action into the future based on expected urban population and GDP growth. The BAU scenario does
not take into account any significant climate action policy change or high-carbon policy change. It is a
pre-COVID-19 scenario.
Higher GDP, Lower Private Vehicle Use Higher GDP, Higher Private Vehicle Use
Green recovery:
The green recovery is a scenario in which COVID-19 recovery stimulus funding supports investment in climate
Lower GDP, Lower Private Vehicle Use Lower GDP, Higher Private Vehicle Use action that prioritises rapid job creation and ensures C40 cities are on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C. the
green recovery scenario is an aspirational, yet plausible, framing of what could be achieved through COVID-19
stimulus funding to improve the quantity and quality of public transport services. This includes providing better
access, generating public transport jobs, and creating a shift away from private vehicle use.
Public transport neglect:
This scenario depicts a trajectory of decreased public transport funding between 2020 and 2030. That trajectory
largely follows the current funding gap being reported by public transport systems around the world. For this
scenario, it is anticipated that usage follows a similar path to the decreased services that would exist if funding
gaps – caused primarily by reduced ridership and increased operating costs – are not made whole by other means
of revenue or funding. Further, it assumes that senior levels of government do not answer the calls of cities and
public transport operators to fill the deficit they are facing.
Figure 2: Public Transport Investment 2020 - 2030
% Private motor vehicle use (total mode share)
Source: Self reported CAM dataYou can also read
