A Planet for Life 2015 - The Economic Futures invented by Arab Countries and the Middle East - Le Cercle ...
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A Planet for Life 2015
The Economic Futures invented by Arab
Countries and the Middle East
Agence Française pour le Développement,
Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales,
Sciences Po, Paris, May 26, 2015
Samir AITA
Président du Cercle des Economistes Arabes
Ancien Rédacteur en chef, le Monde diplomatique éditions arabes
What development during « revolutions »? • After achieving a great deal of the Millenium Development Goals, many Arab countries lost decades of development after the turmoil of the “Arab spring”: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, Bahrein… • 2015 a turning point o Catching the gap of the “Arab spring” o Engaging towards the “Sustainable Development Goals” • No stability if young people remain in the streets… without decent jobs Reisman, W. Michael, "Stopping Wars and Making Peace: Reflections on the Ideology and Practice of Conflict Termination in Contemporary World Politics" (1998). Yale University, Faculty Scholarship Series. Paper 968.
The challenges… The internal reasons of the
uprising
• The demography… “the youth bulge”
• The rural-urban migration… “the bulge becomes a tsunami”…
with rapid islamization
• The inter-regional migrations… “the schock” and the resilience
of the civil-societies
• The employment of youth and women… Informality and the
loss of sense of citizenship… “we want dignity!”… the situation
is worsening after the spring…
• Education and higher education during “youth bulge” and
following the “arab spring”
• Women involvement and participation… not cultural
• Urbanism and land use… “crowded cities and suburbs”…
stress on water.
• Governance… country, sub-regional and inter-regional
Population Growth in the Arab Countries
vs Europe and the USA
The evolution of population in some Arab and Middle
East countries, vs European
The issues of youth bulge and employment
Evolution de la part de la population urbaine (%) Syrie: Répartition de la population suivant les tranches d'âge
100
90 50%
Algerie 45%
80 40%
Egypte
35%
70 Jordanie
30%
60 Liban
25%
Maroc 20%
50
Palestine 15%
40 Syrie 10%
Tunisie 5%
30
0%
1970
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
1975
1980
1985
1990
20
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Evolution de la part de l'emploi Informel dans le secteur productif
Unemployment trends in Syria
40.0%
ILO-LFS
35.0%
55.0%
50.0% 30.0%
45.0%
40.0% 25.0%
35.0%
M 20.0%
30.0%
25.0% W 15.0%
20.0%
15.0% T 10.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
10.0%
5.0%
0.0% Part Emploi Informel dans Emploi Total
Hors Emploi Administratif
1994 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
PIB Informel
Illeteracy amongst Women
What urban places are we talking about?
What urban places are we talking about?
What urban places are we talking about? Cairo
For what future? Cairo
For what future? Cairo
What urban places are we talking about?
13The Battle of Aleppo
Katma
Marae
Tell Rifaat
Anadan
AleppoThe way foreward… changing the
development model
• The main priority… Create “decent jobs” for the young women
and men
• Two pillars (like in Spain after dictatorship):
o Land use and urban planning through large infrastructure
projects
o Reform of local governance… decentralization
• The necessity of regional integration:
o Reduce the gap between labor (Mediterranean) and
capital (Gulf)
o Europe of the regions… the Mediterranean of the regions
• Nexus of the Sustainable development Goals
o The water, energy and food security nexus
o Employment, regional governance, land use and urban
planning nexusThe Mediterranean of the regions
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