THE DAILY Date: 21 August 2020
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The Daily Viewpoint Markets could open up following positive Asian markets and US DOMESTIC INDICES indices that closed mildly in the positive on Thursday … Indian markets could open up following positive Asian markets Close Points % Change today and US indices that closed mildly in the positive on SENSEX 38220 -394 -1.02 Thursday. NIFTY 11312 -96 -0.84 U.S. stock-market benchmarks booked gains on Thursday and the MIDCAP 14869 128 0.87 Nasdaq closed at a record high, as investors rushed to large- SMALL CAP 14422 103 0.72 capitalization technology and e-commerce shares for safety, after a pair of economic reports set off concerns about the broader SECTORAL INDICES U.S. economy’s tenuous recovery from the coronavirus epidemic. A rally in technology-related sectors, including communication Close Points % Change services and consumer discretionary, led the charge after U.S. POWER 1695 67 4.10 weekly jobless benefit claims data popped back above 1 million in METAL 9233 86 0.94 the week ended Aug. 15, rising to 1.106 million on a seasonally OIL & GAS 13402 75 0.57 adjusted basis. A more optimistic sign of the labor market REALTY 1745 7 0.39 recovery, however, came from continuing claims, which fell to Healthcare 19089 28 0.15 14.844 million from 15.480 million. CD 22953 6 0.03 Separately, the Philadelphia Fed index, a reading of business CG 14061 -23 -0.16 conditions in the Philadelphia area, fell to 17.2 in August from IT 18311 -56 -0.30 24.1 in July, which was followed by a report on leading economic AUTO 17850 -68 -0.38 indicators from the Conference Board showing only marginal TECK 8824 -47 -0.53 improvement. Finance 5115 -64 -1.24 BANKEX 24960 -345 -1.36 Meanwhile, Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng in Beijing on Thursday confirmed plans to talk with U.S. counterparts to review progress on a trade deal, Reuters BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS reported. GAINERS % LOSERS % The ‘Buffett Indicator’ as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which NHPC 12.17 MUTHOOTFIN -5.42 takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) ADANITRANS 10.00 MOTHERSUMI -4.52 and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is at its highest level since TATAPOWER 8.37 HINDZINC -3.54 before the internet bubble crash in 2000. Currently, the ratio of SUNTV 7.71 ICICIPRULI -3.27 1.7 is some 70% above its historical average of one. FRETAIL 7.22 AJANTPHARM -3.01 The Indian Government is planning to sell part of its stake in Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp Ltd. in the current ADVANCE/DECLINES fiscal, and has invited bids from merchant bankers for managing the sale process. The government currently holds 87.40% stake in BSE % IRCTC. To meet SEBI's public holding norm, the government has ADVANCES 1595 54 to lower its stake in the company to 75%. DECLINES 1169 40 The National Stock Exchange (NSE) on August 20 has decided to UNCHANGED 169 6 include SBI Life Insurance Company and Divi's Laboratories in the Nifty50. It will remove Bharti Infratel and Zee Entertainment INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY Enterprises (ZEE) from the benchmark index. Rs Cr 20/08/20 19/08/20 August Total Asia Pacific stocks edged higher in Friday morning trade following the release of mixed U.S. economic data overnight. FII -268 459 12326 (prov.) MF -672 -97 -7980 (prov.) Page 2
The Daily Viewpoint GLOBAL INDICES Indian benchmark indices closed lower on Aug 20 after weak Asian cues subdued local sentiments post the release of US Fed Close Points % Chg minutes on Wednesday. Nifty closed 96 points, or 0.84 percent, down at 11,312.20. DOW JONES 27740 46.85 0.17 S & P 500 3386 10.66 0.32 Nifty fell with a down gap on Thursday and closed near intraday NASDAQ 11265 118.49 1.06 lows. Post a higher opening on Friday, trends in Asian and FTSE 6013 -98.64 -1.61 European markets would dictate its move during the day. CAC 4911 -65.99 -1.33 DAX 12830 -147.33 -1.14 Key Index Change Update Effective September 25th. NIKKEI 225 22962 81.38 0.36 Nifty 50 Index SHANGHAI COMP. 3381 16.67 0.50 Inclusions: Divi’s Labs, SBI Life Insurance. HANG SENG 24987 195.11 0.79 Exclusions: Bharti Infratel, Zee Entertainment. BOVESPA 101468 614.15 0.61 Nifty Next 50 Index EXCHANGE RATES Inclusions: Adani Green Energy, Alkem Laboratories, Bharti Infratel, LT Infotech, Tata Consumer Products. Exclusions: Divi's Labs, NHPC, Page Industries, SBI Life Value % Change Insurance, Shriram Transport Finance. USD/INR 75.0 0.20 EURO/USD 1.187 0.05 Nifty 100 Index USD/GBP Inclusions: Adani Green Energy, Alkem Laboratories, Larsen & 1.323 0.11 Toubro Infotech, Tata Consumer Products. USD/JPY 105.7 -0.11 Exclusions: NHPC, Page Industries, Shriram Transport Finance, Zee Entertainment Enterprises. COMMODITIES RBL Bank to Raise $209 Million With Preference Share Sale RBL Bank Ltd. plans to raise 15.66 billion rupees ($209 million) Value % by issuing shares to five investors, including Maple II BV, ICICI Gold ($ / Oz) 1954.0 0.39 Prudential Life Insurance Co. and CDC Group Plc. The bank’s Silver ($ / Oz) 27.4 1.04 board approved the issuance of about 88.5 million preferential Crude Oil Futures 42.9 0.21 shares at 177 rupees a share. Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 45.1 0.36 Maple II BV, which is indirectly owned by funds affiliated to Baring Private Equity Asia, will subscribe to 56.4 million shares BOND YIELD and hold 9.45% stake in the bank after the offering, according to the filing. Other investors include Gaja Capital Fund and its Value % Chg bps affiliate Gaja Trustee Co. Ltd. IND10 Yr Bond Yield 6 0 GMM Pfaudler to acquire controlling stake in parent group GMM Pfaudler will be acquiring a majority stake in the global ADR business of its parent Pfaudler Group for $27.4 million from private equity firm Deutsche Beteiligungs AG Fund VI (DBAG), Value $ % the company said in a regulatory filing. Dr Reddys Labs 59.65 0.08 The company will acquire 34.4% of the Pfaudler Group by itself HDFC Bank 47.72 1.12 and another 19.6% through its wholly-owned subsidiary Mavag ICICI Bank 10.05 0.00 AG. Additionally, the Patel family, the promoters of GMM Tata Motors 8.22 -1.32 Pfaudler will acquire an a 26% stake in the Pfaudler Group. Wipro 4.24 -0.70 DBAG will continue to retain the balance 20% stake. Vedanta Ltd 6.95 2.06 INFOSYS 12.82 0.16 Page 3
The Daily Viewpoint Commercial vehicle makers to incur Rs 6,000 crore net loss this fiscal: Report Commercial vehicle manufacturers are expected to incur a massive net loss to the tune of Rs 6,000 crore in the current financial year, with the volume likely to touch its lowest point in a decade after two consecutive years of high de-growth, Ratings agency Crisil said on Thursday. In the April-June period of financial year 2021, as per data, the total CV (commercial vehicle) sale in the country stood at 31,636, a decline of 85 per cent year-on-year as the country remained in the Coronavirus-induced lockdown for most part of the June quarter. A 30 per cent decline in sales volume on an already weak base would lead to a nearly six-fold increase in a net loss to Rs 6,000 crore for commercial vehicle (CV) makers this fiscal, Crisil Ratings said in the release. Banks sanction over Rs 1 lakh cr concessional loans to Kisan Credit Card holders The Finance Ministry on Thursday said banks have sanctioned over Rs 1 lakh crore concessional loans to Kisan Credit Card (KCC) holders to help farmers meet financial requirements during the COVID-19 crisis. As on August 17, 1.22 crore KCCs have been sanctioned with the credit limit of Rs 1,02,065 crore, and this will go a long way in reviving the rural economy and accelerating agricultural growth, the ministry said in a statement. This reflects an increase of Rs 12,255 crore, over Rs 89,810 crore sanctioned to 1.1 crore KCC holders as on July 24. Malaysia's Axiata exits Vodafone Idea, latest foreign investor to leave India Axiata Group Berhad has sold its residual stake in Vodafone Idea (VIL) and exited India’s telecom sector, having taken a substantial hit on its investments after a high-profile entry more than a decade ago. The Malaysian telco's exit leaves only SingTel and Vodafone Group from among the old-time foreign investors in the debt-laden sector. GAIL sees gas sales returning to pre-COVID-19 levels by quarter end GAIL India Ltd sees its gas demand returning to pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the current quarter as the expansion of the city gas network will offset shrinking consumption. Sheela Foam Q1FY21 result update Revenue of the company posted degrowth by 48% y-o-y to Rs.268.97 cr. The net profit of the company has posted a degrowth of 70% y-o-y to Rs.11.80 cr from Rs.38.72 cr in the same quarter previous year. The Average per kg. price of TDI was Rs. 124/- in Q1FY21, Rs. 122/- in Q4FY20 and Rs. 154/- in Q1FY20. The Company sold 1.85 lac of Mattress during Q1FY21 against sales of 5.62 lac of Mattress in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The Revenue from Indian operations on a standalone basis was Rs. 127 cr compared to Rs. 436 cr of Q1FY20. The EBITDA for the quarter was Rs. 1 cr as compared to Rs. 53 cr of the corresponding quarter. The Net Profit (PAT) for Q1FY21 was Rs. 2 cr as compared to Rs. 35 cr of the corresponding quarter. Revenue from operations from Australia was Rs. 82 cr compared to Rs. 79 cr of Q1FY20. The EBITDA increased to Rs. 13 cr from Rs. 8 cr of corresponding quarter (Due to change in Accounting Standard in Australia) and the Net Profit (PAT) was Rs. 4 cr which was at par with the PAT of corresponding quarter. The Revenue from operations from Spain was Rs. 60 cr, with an EBITDA of Rs. 11 cr and Net Profit of Rs. 7 cr. OIL India (Q1FY21), Results Preview Oil India Ltd is likely to report 50.1 per cent YoY sales decline to Rs 1700 crore. Company could post de growth of 94.8 per cent YoY in net profit in Q1FY21. Domestic oil production could be down 8/1% YoY/QoQ at 0.7mmt and Gas production likely to be down 8% YoY to 0.7bcm and realisation could fall 32/23% YoY/QoQ to USD 2.4/mmbtu. Update on development of block Area 1 Rovuma, Mozambique and LNG project and update on the production from Baghjan area will be key monitarable. Page 4
The Daily Viewpoint Government Plans Further Stake Sale In IRCTC, Invites Bids From Merchant Bankers By Sept. 10 The GoI intends to disinvest a part of the paid up equity capital of IRCTC out of its shareholding through 'Offer for Sale method of shares by promoters through the stock exchanges. The merchant bankers will have to submit their bids by Sept. 10. The government currently holds 87.40% stake in IRCTC. To meet SEBI's public holding norm, the government has to lower its stake in the company to 75%. Important news/developments to influence markets Stock Investments by foreigners in Japan increased by 371 billion yen in the week ending August 15 of 2020. Germany's producer prices decreased by 1.7 percent year-on-year in July 2020, the sixth consecutive month of declines. On a monthly basis, producer prices went up 0.2 percent, beating market consensus of a 0.1 percent rise. Eurozone's construction output growth sharply slowed in June, after a strong recovery in May. Construction output rose 4 percent from May, when it surged 29.4 percent, revised from 27.9 percent. The US Labor Department said that initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 15 came in at 1.106 million. Initial claims for the previous week were also revised higher by 8,000 to 971,000. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index fell 7 points to a seasonally adjusted reading of 17.2 in August, the regional bank said. This is the second straight decline in the index after it his 27.5 in June. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased for the third consecutive month in July. The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for July was up 1.4% from the June final figure of 103.0. Page 5
The Daily Viewpoint Daily View on Nifty Nifty LTP 2-Day View Reversal level 7-Day View Reversal level 11,312 Bullish Move below 11291 Bullish Move below 11183 Targets for 2 day: Target: 11536-11614 11397 Nifty Intra Timeframe (30 min) Nifty Daily Timeframe Technical Observation: Markets ended with losses on Thursday after a gap down opening. The Nifty finally lost 96.2 points or 0.84% to close at 11,312.2. Broad market indices like the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices gained more, thereby out performing the Sensex/Nifty. Market breadth was positive on the BSE/NSE. Zooming into the Nifty 30 min charts, we observe that the Nifty has managed to close above the short term trend reversal levels of 11291, thereby ensuring the short term uptrend is still intact. However, the fact that the Nifty was making lower tops during the day after a gap down opening does not augur well. This increases the probability of a breakdown in the near term. We nevertheless continue with our view of a short term uptrend till we are proved otherwise. On the daily chart, technical indicators are now giving mixed signals. While the Nifty continues to trade above the 20-day SMA, the 14-day RSI has declined sharply and cut its 9-day EMA from above, indicating a loss of momentum. The 20-day SMA nevertheless continues to remain above the 50-day SMA, indicating that the intermediate trend remains positive (See the daily chart above). Given the intensity with which the markets have fallen on Thursday, the bulls would need to come back strongly to ensure the uptrend continues. Traders will need to watch if the Nifty can cross the immediate highs of 11362 for the uptrend to resume. A break below 11291 would reverse the current short term uptrend and possibly lead to a sharp sell off towards the next major supports of 11216-11111. Conclusion: While the 1-2 day trend of the Nifty remains up, given the price action seen in the Nifty and the intensity with which the markets have fallen on Thursday, the bulls would need to come back strongly to ensure the uptrend continues. Traders will need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the crucial trend reversal levels of 11291 in the coming sessions; else the current uptrend would reverse and we could be headed lower. Retail PageResearch 6
The Daily Viewpoint DATA & EVENTS OPEN SHORT-TERM TRADING CALLS UPSIDE NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME ENTRY CMP SL TARGET VALID TILL % Bank Nifty 22000 Call 1 20-Aug-20 Buy 303.7 315 210 430 37 31-Aug-20 Option (27th Aug Expiry) 2 20-Aug-20 Buy HPCL 220 Aug Call Option 5.75 5.6 4 9.1 63 27-Aug-20 3 30-Jul-20 Buy TCS 2317.10-2247 2249 2213 2456 9 21-Aug-20 4 17-Aug-20 Buy IOC 87.25-84 89 83 92.5 4 26-Aug-20 5 19-Aug-20 Buy Century Ply 134-136.45 138.15 132.8 144 4 21-Aug-20 6 20-Aug-20 Buy VIP Inds 268-272.15 279.9 263.8 300 7 31-Aug-20 Shriram Transport 7 20-Aug-20 Buy 684-660 688.9 653 725 5 31-Aug-20 Finance 8 20-Aug-20 Buy Shoppers Stop 168-172.25 173.5 165.8 185 7 31-Aug-20 9 20-Aug-20 Buy BPCL 410-418 411.8 405 429 4 31-Aug-20 10 20-Aug-20 Buy Pidilite Industries 1454 1450 1410 1499 3 27-Aug-20 NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY TEAM ARE ON REAL TIME BASIS. A TRADING RECOMMENDATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED OR SQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET IS TOUCHED IN INTRADAY TRADING. DO NOT WAIT FOR TARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSE THE POSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FOR TIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROM RECOMMENDATIONS. OPEN CASH POSITIONAL CALLS TARGET TARGET TARGET UPSIDE NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME ENTRY CMP SL VALID TILL 1 2 3 % 1 1-Jun-20 Buy Avanti Feeds** 442.0 515.3 403.0 481.0 520.0 575.0 12 1-Dec-20 Glenmark 2 30-Jul-20 Buy 445.9 490.5 415.0 483.0 530.0 8 28-Oct-20 Pharma* 3 4-Aug-20 Buy Abbott India* 16009.0 16900.0 14800.0 17290.0 18890.0 12 2-Nov-20 4 5-Aug-20 Buy Hatsun Agro* 707.4 751.3 640.0 779.0 849.0 13 3-Nov-20 5 7-Aug-20 Buy Federal Bank 54.2 54.4 51.0 58.0 61.0 12 5-Nov-20 6 10-Aug-20 Buy Orient Cement 70.9 71.5 63.0 79.0 85.0 19 8-Nov-20 7 13-Aug-20 Buy Karur Vysya Bank 35.0 36.5 31.0 39.3 45.0 23 11-Nov-20 8 18-Aug-20 Buy Brigade Enterprise 156.3 162.0 142.5 172.0 190.0 17 16-Nov-20 9 18-Aug-20 Buy PNC Infra* 145.0 156.5 132.0 160.0 175.0 12 16-Nov-20 Repco Home 10 19-Aug-20 Buy 136.0 146.5 131.0 145.0 150.0 2 17-Nov-20 Finance* Page 7
The Daily Viewpoint DATA & EVENTS OPEN DERIVATIVE POSITIONAL CALLS TARGET TARGET UPSIDE VALID NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME ENTRY CMP SL TARGET 1 2 3 % TILL Max Financial Aug Till 27th 1 5-Aug-20 Buy 550.4 537.1 515 595.0 620.0 15 Fut Aug ICICI Bank Aug Till 27th 2 5-Aug-20 Buy 360 367.0 345 375 390 6 Fut* Aug Till 27th 3 14-Aug-20 Buy M&M Fin Aug Fut 135.8 135.4 126 148 - - 9 Aug Till 27th 4 18-Aug-20 Buy SRF Aug Fut 4226.2 4250.0 3990 4460 4610 5 Aug L&T Finance Sept Till 24th 5 20-Aug-20 Buy 69.25 69.2 65 74.5 78 8 Fut Sep OPEN E-MARGIN POSITIONAL CALLS TARGET TARGET UPSIDE VALID NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME ENTRY CMP SL TARGET 1 2 3 % TILL Motilal Oswal 1 23-Jul-20 Buy 696.0 689.5 632.0 770.0 810.0 - 17 23-Oct-20 Financial Serv 2 4-Aug-20 Buy Sanofi India 8171.0 8410.0 7480.0 8989.0 9600.0 - 14 4-Nov-20 Indian Energy 3 10-Aug-20 Buy 192.8 188.9 175.0 212.0 235.0 - 24 10-Nov-20 Exchange OPEN DERIVATIVE POSITIONAL CALLS TARGET TARGET UPSIDE VALID NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME ENTRY CMP SL TARGET 1 2 3 % TILL Amara Raja Buy 746.0 741.2 705 805 9 Batteries Aug Fut Till 27th 1 10-Aug Aug Sell Maruti Aug Fut 6617.8 6960.1 7025 6100 12 *= 1st Target Achieved **= 2nd Target Achieved Page 8
The Daily Viewpoint QUARTERLY RESULTS ANNOUNCED COMPANY Q1FY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Remarks Sales NP Sales NP Sales NP (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr) As Per Sheela Foam 269 12 -48 -70 -47 -63 Estimates PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss Page 9
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