THE COMING LONG WINTER: RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Keghart
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Keghart
The Coming Long Winter: Russia Invades Ukraine
Non-partisan Website Devoted to Armenian Affairs, Human Rights
https://keghart.org/cheterian-russia-invades-ukraine/
and Democracy
THE COMING LONG WINTER: RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE
Posted on February 25, 2022 by Keghart
Category: Opinions
Tags: Invasion, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Zelenski
Page: 1Keghart
The Coming Long Winter: Russia Invades Ukraine
Non-partisan Website Devoted to Armenian Affairs, Human Rights
https://keghart.org/cheterian-russia-invades-ukraine/
and Democracy
By Vicken Cheterian, Agos
On February 24, 2022, Russian military invaded Ukraine. International Relations will
not be the same again. As Russian military targets the entire territory of Ukraine, its
political objective remains ill-defined.
What is the political aim of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? The long military preparations, and the
magnitude of the operations make it clear that Russian objectives are not limited to the two
breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. To understand what Russia plans to achieve with this
invasion, one should go back to Putin’s speech of February 21, in which he denied the right of
Ukraine to state sovereignty. The aim of the invasion is therefore to trigger regime change by
military invasion, and bring Ukraine under Russian domination.
International relations will never be the same again. Russian military operations are not comparable
to those of 2014 where Russia annexed Crimea and created a state of permanent war in Donbas. Nor
can we compare the current invasion with the Russo-Georgian war of 2008, when Russian military
could have advanced to Tbilisi and bring down Mikhail Saakashvili, but refrained from doing so.
Today, Russian invasion of Ukraine aims at total domination. It is comparable to US invasion of Iraq in
2003, with its known catastrophic results.
To analyse the current crisis, it is necessary to distinguish two levels of conflicts: the Russo-
American relations, and the Russian-Ukrainian relations. The current conflict in Ukraine is the
outcome of two “original sins”. The first is the US decision under the democratic Bill Clinton in 1993
not only to preserve NATO – a military alliance that was formed to oppose the Soviet Union – but
also to expand it eastwards. Other alternatives, such as dismantling NATO, finding common security
architecture in Europe that included Russia, were ignored. At some point, this endless military
expansion eastwards had to clash with Russian resistance. Why now? Because Russia feels self-
assured after its massive military reforms since 2008, its “successful” military campaigns in
Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Libya and elsewhere, but also because Russia with its 1 million strong
army has preponderant military might in the European theatre.
On one level, this conflict is one great power talking to another great power: when Putin addressed
his December 17, 2021 demands to roll-back NATO to the 1997 positions, this demands was not sent
neither to Kyiv, nor to Brussels, but to Washington. Putin was talking to Biden in the same language
of hegemonic power: to push back the geopolitical boundaries of Eastern Europe, simply because
Russia today has the means to do so, much like the American behaviour in the 1990’s.
But there is another level of analysis, that of the Russian-Ukrainian relations, and here the second
“original sin” was committed by Russia in 2014 the context of the “Euromaidan” Revolution. Ukraine is
a vast but fragile state. Both its internal composition – a large Russian-speaking population in its east
and south, and pro-Western population in Galicia – but also its geopolitical situation between Russia
on the one side and NATO and EU on the other, forced Ukraine into a balancing act. We already saw
Page: 2Keghart
The Coming Long Winter: Russia Invades Ukraine
Non-partisan Website Devoted to Armenian Affairs, Human Rights
https://keghart.org/cheterian-russia-invades-ukraine/
and Democracy
this swinging act in 2004, when after the “Orange Revolution” the pro-Russian candidate Victor
Yanukovich returned to power. Even after Euromaidan the possibility of recreating the equilibrium
between Russia and the West was real. This possibility was destroyed by Russian annexation of
Crimea and the war in Donbas. After 2014, no Ukrainian leader could compromise with Russia, and
even less express pro-Russian positions. Russian actions pushed Ukraine towards the West, and its
internal politics towards nationalism defined as anti-Russian.
The invasion we are witnessing today will consolidate Ukrainian national-identity in nationalistic
terms, marking the definitive break between Ukrainian and Russian identities. This is a painful
process that started in 2014, and will tear apart the social fabric of not only Ukraine but also Russia.
European Insecurity
It remains to be seen whether Putin will succeed in obtaining what he wants from Ukraine using
through this military invasion. Yet, what concerns his relations with the US, NATO, and Europe it will
be a disaster. The Ukrainian crisis in the last few months revealed a very divided “West”: on the one
hand a US preoccupied elsewhere – in the Pacific region and with internal political problems – and
not ready to confront Russia in Ukraine. US President Biden who more than once predicted the
coming Russian invasion, had nevertheless made it clear that the US was not sending its soldiers to
defend Ukraine. In Europe, there are countries bordering Russia, such as Poland and the Baltics,
fearing Russian re-emergence had traditionally hard-line positions against Moscow. But major EU
states such as Germany, France, and Italy wanted normal relations, and to resolve Russian security
concerns through diplomacy. This third way is now defeated.
Russian military invasion of February 24 is the end of efforts of Macron and Scholz. Russia, after
consolidating Ukrainian nationalism, will consolidate NATO on its borders. From a historic low of
70’000 troops, the US might re-deploy new military forces in Europe. EU countries fearing Russia will
increase their military spending. While the current conflict might push oil and gas prices upward, EU
countries will seek alternatives to Russian energy. The West will also impose severe economic and
financial sanctions on Russia. If Moscow, with its over 600 billion reserves has the means to resist
financial pressure, let us have no illusions about the catastrophic impact of the war and the
sanctions on world economy severely crippled after two years of pandemic.
But the most to suffer will be Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Ukraine is one of the most tragic
countries in Europe, which through its history suffered immensely. It was born as an independent
state in the horrors of the First World War, followed by the Russian civil war that claimed millions of
victims. During Stalin’s forced collectivization of land in 1932-33, Ukraine suffered mass famine,
known as Holodomor, which caused the starvation “from 7 to 10 million” people. During the Second
World War, Nazi occupation forces used millions of Ukrainians as slave labour, exterminated
Ukrainian Jews and other minorities, while some of the fiercest battles between German occupation
forces and Soviet troops took place in Ukraine. Ukrainian losses in WWII are between 5 and 7 million.
Page: 3Keghart
The Coming Long Winter: Russia Invades Ukraine
Non-partisan Website Devoted to Armenian Affairs, Human Rights
https://keghart.org/cheterian-russia-invades-ukraine/
and Democracy
The collapse of the Soviet Union was very painful for Ukraine; one indicator summarizes its immense
suffering: Ukrainian population declined from 52 million at the collapse of USSR in 1991, to 43 million
currently.
Today, Ukraine is once again a victim.
Russia might have legitimate security concerns towards NATO. But is there a law on earth that
denies Ukraine and Ukrainians from their legitimate right to security, dignity, and independence?
Is Putin Crazy? Is He Hitler
Author: Salutin
Page: 4Keghart
The Coming Long Winter: Russia Invades Ukraine
Non-partisan Website Devoted to Armenian Affairs, Human Rights
https://keghart.org/cheterian-russia-invades-ukraine/
and Democracy
Comments
Lucine – 2022-02-25 13:59:39
Thank you, Mr Cheterian, for an excellent analysis. Armenian groups such as BEVER in
Armenia should take note from the Ukraine example that it is not a "given" that the
US/NATO will militarily come running to the defense of targeted nations within Russia and
Turkey's orbit. Part of this current crisis was inevitable as Cheterian says -- that NATO
encroachment would eventually back the Russian bear into a corner. But we must also
account for the fact that the global power elites do not wish to see a detente between
Russia and Germany -- a relationship that has historic precedence -- and will impose
sanctions to prevent it. Note again that the West did NOT impose sanctions on Turkey/
Azerbaijan/Russia when Artsakh and Armenia were and are in peril. While there are many
things that are different about Putin's recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk vis-a-vis
Russia's NON-recognition of Artsakh -- aptly pointed out by Marshall Moushigian in the
Fresno Bee -- there is still enough similarity for Armenians and perceptive observers to
note the blatant hypocrisy in Putin's actions. Once more, Turkey has flouted its NATO
membership and sided with Russia. Once more, NATO will ignore Turkey's renegade
behavior. A side effect of NATO encroachment will create a greater fuel crisis (blockading
Russia's Nordstream to Europe) to continue to press the public to accept electric cars --
something the current infrastructure cannot handle on a global basis. Biden has already
erased American oil independence by shutting domestic pipelines. The Covid lockdowns
were taken as far as possible. This new crisis very well may keep the repressions and
economic free-falls coming while the global power elites continue to consolidate that
power. As writer Hovsep Dagdigian rightly points out, no matter what happens in Ukraine,
it will not bode well for Armenia.
Tavo – 2022-02-25 12:25:10
Russia had eastern Europe in chains and behind the Iron Curtain up until the demise of the
USSR three decades back. Those countries joined NATO because they had experienced
Russian rule and did not want a repeat. It is hard to see how Russia can complain. By what
right did Russia/USSR dominate those countries since WW 2? If Putin had his way, not
only would those eastern European countries be part of a Russian-led Warsaw-type Pact,
but Russia would also rule over all the former Soviet Republics. By what right does Russia
claim that the European countries cannot join NATO? If not for NATO membership, Putin
could now be invading not just Ukraine but the Baltic nations, Poland, and many more.
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