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VOL 23 / ISSUE 15 / 22 APRIL 2021 / £4.49 BIN THE TAXMAN: Stocks that could help you avoid inheritance tax BIDEN REGULATION AND TAX CHANGES COULD DERAIL CERTAIN INVESTMENTS $63 BILLION COINBASE IS AN EASY WAY TO PLAY BITCOIN FOLLOW NICK TRAIN AND BUY QUALITY ‘PLODDERS’ WHILE THEY’RE ON SALE
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EDITOR’S VIEW The value rally is being powered by ratings change not earnings We’ve reached the point where the rising tide may no longer lift all boats A nother week, another push forward for the UK stock market. We’ve waited for a long time for this to happen and it’s very satisfying to see the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 finally get some winds in their sails. The key question is whether the rally has legs. rating, whereas previously it was on a depressed Some companies look like they’ve already priced in rating? Or is that rating too high for this type of low a significant amount of potential future growth so margin business? that they a) no longer look good value and b) stand Wagamama owner Restaurant Group (RTN) to experience a big share price correction if the has risen by 204% since 1 November yet its 2022 earnings growth doesn’t materialise. earnings per share forecasts have fallen by 28% over There are stocks still priced attractively versus that period, putting it on a price to earnings ratio of their prospects, four of which we featured in this 24.9 – not the sort of rating you’d associate with a recent article. However, it does feel as if we are leisure company. approaching the stage where parts of the market Since 1 November, 315 stocks from the FTSE 350 may find it harder to keep rising without stronger – which combines both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 earnings upgrades. indices – have increased in price, 16 of which by Shares has looked at the performance data since more than 100% and 97 delivering more than 50% 1 November 2020 which is roughly when the market return, according to SharePad. The ones delivering rotated towards value-style shares. In theory, the negative returns have seen an average share price vaccine rollout has improved value stocks’ chance of decline of 4.2% over that period. growing earnings and investors suddenly found they Shares is certainly not calling the top of the value no longer needed to pay top price to access growth. rally, merely highlighting the need to be more For the past five months, these value stocks selective with stock picking at this stage. have principally risen because investors have been It’s also worth looking at the ones that haven’t prepared to pay a higher rating for them. For rallied as there could be some decent companies example, if a company was trading on 10 times trading on lower ratings than their historical average. forecast earnings for 2021 and enjoyed a 50% rise This group is likely to include some quality names in its share price, it would be trading on 15 times – with a long track record of delivering good returns, assuming no change to earnings estimates. but which are temporarily out of favour because Cleaning provider Mitie (MTO) has seen its 2022 investors can find potential growth stories on a earnings per share forecast increase by 5% since the cheaper rating. As we explain in this article, now start of November 2020, according to Stockopedia could be a good time to load up on quality names. data. Its share price has risen by 129% over that period, meaning the gains are almost entirely down to the rating change. By Daniel Coatsworth Editor Mitie now trades on 13.1 times 2022’s expected earnings. Investors need to ask – is that now a fair 22 April 2021 | SHARES | 3
Contents CFA UK Publication of the Year CFA UK Journalism Awards 2019 News Provider of the Year (Highly Commended) CFA UK Journalism Awards 2020 EDITOR’S 03 VIEW The value rally is being powered by ratings change not earnings London-listed banks should report strong first quarter but challenges remain / Biden regulation and tax changes could derail certain investments / Pressure builds 06 NEWS on GlaxoSmithKline as activist enters the fray / Get the inside track on new float MusicMagpie GREAT New: It’s a great time to feast on McDonald’s shares / Virgin Wines’ shares are 1 1 IDEAS cheap for an online retailer and it is profitable Updates: Elementis / DiscoverIE / Tracsis / Touchstone Exploration / Treatt 22 FUNDS Evenlode to rival Fundsmith with new global growth fund 25 FEATURE $63 billion Coinbase is an easy way to play bitcoin 27 FEATURE Bin the taxman: Stocks that could help you avoid inheritance tax INVESTMENT 34 TRUSTS Follow Nick Train and buy quality ‘plodders’ while they’re on sale UNDER THE 37 BONNET Don’t miss PZ Cussons’ big turnaround effort as the shares are moving up 42 RUSS MOULD Where are we in the market cycle? 46 ETFS ETF demand to rise as funds added to popular comparison tool 49 ASK TOM Can you help with rules around crystallising a pension? 51 INDEX Shares, funds, ETFs and investment trusts in this issue securities, derivatives or positions with spread betting organisations that they DISCLAIMER have an interest in should first clear their writing with the editor. If the editor agrees that the reporter can write about the interest, it should be disclosed to readers at the end of the story. Holdings by third parties including families, trusts, IMPORTANT self-select pension funds, self select ISAs and PEPs and nominee accounts are included in such interests. Shares publishes information and ideas which are of interest to investors. It does not provide advice in relation to investments or any other financial matters. 2. Reporters will inform the editor on any occasion that they transact shares, Comments published in Shares must not be relied upon by readers when they derivatives or spread betting positions. This will overcome situations when the make their investment decisions. Investors who require advice should consult a interests they are considering might conflict with reports by other writers in the properly qualified independent adviser. Shares, its staff and AJ Bell Media Limited magazine. This notification should be confirmed by e-mail. do not, under any circumstances, accept liability for losses suffered by readers as a result of their investment decisions. 3. Reporters are required to hold a full personal interest register. The whereabouts of this register should be revealed to the editor. Members of staff of Shares may hold shares in companies mentioned in the magazine. This could create a conflict of interests. Where such a conflict exists it 4. A reporter should not have made a transaction of shares, derivatives or spread will be disclosed. Shares adheres to a strict code of conduct for reporters, as betting positions for 30 days before the publication of an article that mentions set out below. such interest. Reporters who have an interest in a company they have written about should not transact the shares within 30 days after the on-sale date of the 1. In keeping with the existing practice, reporters who intend to write about any magazine. 4 | SHARES | 22 April 2021
Small & Mid Cap Inve s tment s That Have Superior O per ating Number s % Total Return Fundsmith LLP (“Fundsmith”) is authorised and regulated by the Financial 12 months Since inception Conduct Authority and only acts for the funds to whom it provides regulated 2021 2020 ending March to 31.03.21 investment management and transaction arrangement services. Fundsmith does not act for or advise potential investors in connection with acquiring shares in Smithson Investment Smithson Investment Trust plc and will not be responsible to potential investors +43.4 +0.8 +65.8 Trust Price for providing them with protections afforded to clients of Fundsmith. Prospective investors are strongly advised to take their own legal, investment and tax advice MSCI World from independent and suitably qualified advisers. The value of investments may +55.1 -15.6 +33.4 SMID Cap Index (£ net) go up as well as down and be affected by changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Source: Financial Express Analytics. Inception 19.10.18. A Fundsmith fund Available through your stockbroker Fundsmith LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with number OC354233. Its registered office address is 33 Cavendish Square, London, W1G 0PW. www.smithson.co.uk
NEWS London-listed banks should report strong first quarter but challenges remain Key points to expect from Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and more W ith the major UK banks due to report their first quarter results in the next couple of weeks, we believe the rally in the sector which began last autumn has staying power based on valuation grounds. However, this is only a sector to trade short- term and we would be wary of brokers pushing an overly bullish narrative. WHAT TO EXPECT UK BANKS: DIVIDEND YIELDS The reporting season starts with HSBC (HSBA) on 27 April, followed by Lloyds (LLOY) and Metro FY21 Div FY22 Div Bank (MTRO) on 28 April, NatWest Group (NWG) Yield Est Yield Est on 29 April and Barclays (BARC) on 30 April. Barclays 3.0% 4.2% Key numbers important to the market are net HSBC 3.7% 4.8% interest income and the net interest margin. Lloyds 4.0% 5.6% The first is the amount the banks are making on NatWest 5.0% 6.8% money they have lent out minus the income paid Standard Chartered 2.6% 3.6% on deposits. The second is the same thing but Source: Shares, based on market prices 20 April expressed in percentage points as a margin on total loans and deposits. report bumper earnings from these divisions if the Net interest income and margins have been US investment banks are any yardstick. whittled away by low base rates over the last Of the two, Barclays is generally acknowledged couple of years, so the banks have had to try to to have the better investment banking business grow their loan books faster than their deposits. and has taken market share from its Wall Street However, during the pandemic people and rivals in certain markets in recent quarters. companies ended up borrowing less and saving HSBC and emerging markets rival Standard more so there’s unlikely to be great news on Chartered (STAN), which reports on 29 April, are that front. likely to have seen strong growth in the Asia Pacific The news on bad loans should be better though. region, although both are likely to warn that year- The banks have put aside billions of pounds for on-year growth will slow in 2021 as the region expected credit losses which have so far failed to was the first to recover from the initial impact of materialise, so the market is expecting them to Covid and performed well from the second quarter announce – or at least hint at – special dividends onward. and share buybacks later this year. Finally, with India struggling to control a new wave of the virus, Standard Chartered in particular INVESTMENT BANKS COME GOOD is likely to stay cautious on its full year guidance For a change, the two firms with big investment and the message will be one of ‘controlling the banking businesses – Barclays and HSBC – should controllable’, i.e. costs. [IC] 6 | SHARES | 22 April 2021
NEWS Biden regulation and tax changes could derail certain investments The new administration could make life harder for many companies T he latest signs that the Biden The key question is whether these changes are administration is getting tough on being factored into analysts’ earnings estimates corporate regulation and tax have put the and market valuations. tobacco sector under pressure. The impact of Trump’s corporation tax cut in late Shares in British American Tobacco (BATS) 2017 was significant, helping to drive big upgrades and Imperial Brands (IMB) fell between 5% and to earnings forecasts and provided a significant 6% on 20 April, mirroring similar moves for their catalyst for the US stock market. US-listed counterparts, on reports the Biden team is considering plans to cap nicotine levels 3000 S&P 500 US MARKET INDEX in cigarettes. This could make tobacco companies’ core 2800 product less addictive and undermine sales. If 2 these reports are correct, it’s another reason why 2600 1 the new president is turning out to be less than friendly to the business world, with tax increases clearly on the table. 2400 2017 2018 There is talk of a global minimum tax rate, agreed by the world’s biggest economies. Biden’s 1 2 Nov 2017 Trump tax cut introduced in the House of administration might also force big companies to Representatives pay taxes where their revenues are earned, not 2 22 Dec 2017 where the profits can be shifted to. Tax cut signed into law Biden needs to pay for his stimulus and infrastructure spending plans, and it looks like this This only came through once the Trump tax will encompass a big hike in the US corporation cut had been introduced to Congress and signed tax rate to 25% or even 28% from the current 21%. into law, suggesting it may take some time for the Such a change would hit businesses like Google negative impact of Biden’s tax increases to feed and Facebook which have their international through to markets. headquarters in Dublin to take advantage of These new tax plans are still in their early stages Ireland’s 12.5% rate. and may be diluted as the administration looks to The Biden administration is looking at expanding get them approved by US lawmakers. However, the ‘global intangible low-tax income’ tax which these issues are likely to garner increasing was introduced under Donald Trump to make attention as we move through 2021. it harder to shelter intangible profit – i.e. that Industries like healthcare and technology which secured from intellectual property, copyrights and derive a significant chunk of their profit overseas trademarks – overseas. and pay limited tax on this profit look most There are also proposals to levy a 15% minimum vulnerable to any changes and this could reinforce rate on book income to effectively ensure that all the current rotation out of these sectors and into businesses pay something. value stocks. [TS] 22 April 2021 | SHARES | 7
NEWS Pressure builds on GlaxoSmithKline as activist enters the fray The arrival of Elliott Investment Management on the share register could galvanise management S hares in GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are on an upward path after the Financial Times 200 GLAXOSMITHKLINE reported that activist US investor Elliott 180 ASTRAZENECA Investment Management had taken a ‘significant’ multi-billion-pound stake. 160 The $42 billion fund, known for active campaigns 140 at miner BHP (BHP) and Premier Inn owner Whitbread (WTB), is expected to heap pressure on 120 Glaxo chief executive Emma Walmsley. 100 Although we don’t know the precise reasons for Elliott’s actions, we can construct a possible 80 2018 2019 2020 2021 narrative. The shares have lagged the sector and the company is in the middle of one of the biggest transformations in its history which will see the One of Walmsley’s first actions in 2018 was the consumer healthcare division demerged in 2022. $5.1 billion purchase of US biotech company Tesaro, Given the huge amounts of investment in which spearheaded the relaunch of the cancer research and development needed to build a drug franchise. pipeline it could be argued that the full sale of the Although small today, Liberum expects the cancer consumer health division would serve long term franchise to generate sales of $2.7 billion by 2030, shareholders better than a demerger. driven by Zejula (ovarian cancer) and Blenrep The deal with Pfizer in 2019 to combine (multiple myeloma). respective consumer health businesses has created In vaccines, Shingrix, which is used to treat one of the best quality consumer franchises the chicken-pox related disease shingles, has boasting such iconic brands as Panadol, Sensodyne shown good efficacy and is expected to remain and Advil. Such a high-quality asset might command an important driver of growth until the end of a high multiple should it be sold in its entirety. the decade. Liberum estimates the cancer and vaccines BUILDING THE PIPELINE franchises could add around $7bn to revenues over At the same time Glaxo is in the process of beefing the decade which will more than compensate for up its biopharma division. It takes a long time stagnant sales elsewhere. to build a pipeline of new drugs, but Glaxo has Liberum analyst Alistair Campbell commented: arguably made good progress and expects to launch ‘Our detailed work shows that contrary to market more than 20 new products over the next five scepticism GSK’s biopharma business will deliver years. above sector sales growth and high single digit The biggest drivers of value over the coming earnings per share growth to 2025. In fact, even in a decade are expected to be the cancer and vaccine bear case GSK will still deliver sales growth to 2030, franchises according to Liberum. in our view.’ [MG] 8 | SHARES | 22 April 2021
NEWS Get the inside track on new float MusicMagpie The smartphones, consoles and computers reseller has a clear ESG angle S martphones-to-computers recycler and reseller MusicMagpie (MMAG:AIM) is set to swoop onto AIM (22 April) today through a flotation valuing the ‘re-commerce’ business at £208 million. That market valuation equates to roughly 1.4 times historic sales and 15 times historic earnings. Trading as musicMagpie in the UK and Decluttr in the US, MusicMagpie is a specialist online reseller of used electronic products, games, CDs and DVDs. A ‘comfortably’ oversubscribed placing at 193p raised £15 million of new money for the company, though selling shareholders took £95 million off the table. Chief executive Steve Oliver tells Shares that investments in proprietary technology and the trust it has built with consumers give MusicMagpie an edge in the market, with competition coming from peoples’ propensity to leave old tech in drawers. about £153.4 million in the year to November MusicMagpie estimates that in the UK alone, 2020, a compound annual growth rate of about ‘people are sitting on around £16.5 billion worth of 15.2%. technology that they no longer use, and that only Over the same period, earnings before interest, a small percentage of consumer technology items tax, depreciation and amortisation sparked up from are currently recycled’. £2.6 million to approximately £13.9 million for a The company takes these unwanted products CAGR of approximately 132%, demonstrating the and uses proprietary technology to optimise operational leverage in the business. the sales price for every item, simultaneously The new money raised at the stock market listing them across multiple sales sites, including listing will repay debt and fund the expansion of the musicMagpie and Decluttr websites and MusicMagpie’s smartphone rental proposition as applications, as well as Amazon and eBay. well as the roll-out of its SMARTDrop kiosk concept, The group has the highest number of seller which is a way for sellers to recycle phones for reviews on both Amazon and eBay, where it cash, with kiosks now being rolled out in Asda and consistently achieves positive feedback scores. Co-op branches. MusicMagpie resold over 400,000 consumer MusicMagpie also expects to qualify for the technology products to consumers in the year London Stock Exchange’s Green Economy Mark to November 2020 and Oliver estimates the when it arrives on the stock market. This recognises company resells around 2,500 tonnes of books and companies that derive 50% or more of their total disc media each year that could have ended up annual revenue from products and services that as waste. contribute to the global ‘Green Economy’ and could MusicMagpie’s sales increased from roughly make the shares more attractive to ESG-minded £115.5 million in the year to November 2018 to investors in the future. [JC] 22 April 2021 | SHARES | 9
TIME FOR VALUE? Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc is a well-established investment company, with a new portfolio management team at the helm. RWC’s UK Equity Income team, was appointed to manage the trust in November 2020. Led by Nick Purves and Ian Lance, the team employs a disciplined, value-oriented investment approach. Value investing has a very long history of outperformance, but it has struggled in the growth-dominated markets of the last decade. Recent market behaviour suggests this may be beginning to change. The Temple Bar Investment Trust is well placed to benefit should this rotation into UK value stocks continue. For further information, please visit templebarinvestments.co.uk “In my 30-year career as a fund manager, there have been two occasions in which a market dislocation has created an opportunity for investors to potentially make very attractive, outsized returns. The 2000 dotcom boom, and in 2009 following the global financial crisis. I believe we are now witnessing a third.” Ian Lance, Portfolio Manager No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risks in any market environment. Investments can go up and down in value and you may not get back the full amount invested. RWC Asset Management LLP is the appointed portfolio manager to the Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc and this is issued by RWC Partners Limited. Both firms are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It’s a great time to feast on McDonald’s shares Growth and decent income are on the menu at the fast-food chain O n 29 April McDonald’s will release its first MCDONALD’S quarter earnings and if BUY analysts are right, the numbers (MCD:NYSE) $231.81 will be good. Earnings of about $1.80 per Market cap: $173 billion share is predicted, based on Refinitiv forecast data, which would smash the same period in 2020 where it reported $1.47 per share and put the burger giant back on its pre-pandemic track. Like restaurants everywhere, McDonald’s was happy to see the back of 2020 as Covid-19 ripped across the world and saw us all Despite this setback, as an ANALYSTS ARE LOVIN’ IT at home for months at a time. investment McDonald’s did The Trefis analysts err on McDonald’s saw revenue decline remarkably well last year. The the cautious side with their 9% in 2020 to $19.2 billion, while share price ended 2020 at nearly calculations. The consensus earnings per share fell to $6.35 the same level as just before the earnings per share estimate from $7.95 in 2019. pandemic broke, at around $215. for this year is $8.43, rising to With most of the world $9.30 for 2022 and $10.26 for McDonald’s growing now in reopening mode and 2023, according to Refinitiv. dividends people rediscovering the Interestingly, of the 39 analysts freedom to get out and about, that follow McDonald’s, 30 rate Year Dividends see friends and family, visit the stock as a buy, 10 with very 2023* $5.81 shops and leisure outlets and so high conviction. Not one single 2022* $5.52 on, investors can begin to look analyst calls the stock a sell. 2021* $5.25 ahead with far more confidence. The potential for increasing 2020 $5.04 McDonald’s is a prime market share is a key reason why 2019 $4.73 beneficiary of greater movement analysts are bullish. Thousands 2018 $4.19 of people as it is a popular choice of restaurants have been forced 2017 $4.04 for ‘food on the go’. to close their doors since the 2016 $3.61 Analysts at US broker Trefis onset of the pandemic, and forecast McDonald’s revenues many of them will never reopen. 2015 $3.44 to grow by around 11% to $21.2 Their loss is McDonald’s 2014 $3.28 billion in 2021. They said: ‘Net opportunity. With its powerful 2013 $3.12 income is likely to grow to $5.5 and pervasive global brand and 2012 $2.87 billion as recovery post Covid-19 infrastructure, McDonald’s could 2011 $2.53 gains pace, increasing its become stronger as the weaker Source: McDonald’s, *Refinitiv forecast earnings per share to $7.48.’ players pull out of the market. 22 April 2021 | SHARES | 11
It has more than 38,000 restaurants in 120 countries worldwide and it is said in some marketing circles that the chain’s ‘Golden Arches’ are more widely recognised than the Christian cross. Last year Forbes ranked McDonald’s as the tenth most valuable corporate brand in the millennials, one of the chain’s bonds. The income stream also world, worth $46.1 billion, and longer-run challenges, according looks very secure, with the the fourth most prized non- to critics. payout ratio returning to fairly technology business. McDonald’s It is also embracing typical 60% levels after inflating owns and runs around 2,600 technology and data analytics to 80% last year. The dividend outlets itself. The remainder are to improve efficiency and itself has more than doubled franchises, where the company customer experience while over the past decade. licences its operating model lowering running costs, such Measured versus its peer to franchisees in a profit share as automated, multi-language group McDonald’s stands arrangement. robotics ordering. on an enterprise value to In recent years restaurants earnings before interest, tax, have been refitted, brightened GROWTH AND INCOME depreciation and amortisation, up and dragged into the 21st While there is a long-run growth or EV/EBITDA, of 18.2 versus Century, with free customer story, income seekers will also the average of 17.3; a price to wi-fi, phone charging points, be pleased. The company has cash flow of 20.1 against its self-order kiosks and curb-side an unbroken 40-year-plus industry average of 13.9; and pick-up through mobile app record for growing its dividend the peer group’s dividend yield ordering. stretching back to 1976, even of 1.15%. Yet McDonald’s price McDonald’s has been during Covid, where it increased to earnings ratio of 26.5 is just providing home delivery in many the 2020 dividend by 6.5% to an 8% premium, based on a markets for some time through $5.04. A $5.25 per share award is next 12-months basis. That’s not deals with Uber Eats and Just expected this year. excessive, in our view. Eat Takeaway (JET) in the UK. It That’s not a huge income yield, McDonald’s shares aren’t is also testing meat-alternative about 2.3%, but it knocks the going to be a multi-bagger, but products, which could bolster socks off the 0.625% on five-year the stock could make good gains its social cachet with healthier- UK government bonds or 0.75% through 2021 as reopening eating and ecology-mindful from five-year US government continues. Beyond this year, the shares should continue to offer the sort of sleep-easy steady progress year after year that helps built wealth through solid capital gains and ever-increasing dividends. [SF] 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 MCDONALD’S 170 2020 2021 12 | SHARES | 22 April 2021
AS FOCUSED ON DIVIDENDS AS YOU ARE The Merchants Trust PLC The Merchants Trust aims to provide a rising income by investing in large UK companies with the potential to pay attractive dividends. Although past performance is no guide to the future, we’ve paid a rising dividend to our shareholders for 38 consecutive years, earning us the Association of Investment Companies’ coveted Dividend Hero status. Beyond a focus on dividends, Merchants offers longevity too. Founded in 1889, we are one of the oldest investment trusts in the UK equity income sector. To see the current Merchants dividend yield or to find out more about us, please have a look at our website. A ranking, a rating or an award provides no indicator of future performance and is not constant over time. You should contact your financial adviser before making any investment decision. www.merchantstrust.co.uk INVESTING INVOLVES RISK. THE VALUE OF AN INVESTMENT AND THE INCOME FROM IT MAY FALL AS WELL AS RISE AND INVESTORS MAY NOT GET BACK THE FULL AMOUNT INVESTED. This is a marketing communication issued by Allianz Global Investors GmbH, an investment company with limited liability, incorporated in Germany, with its registered office at Bockenheimer Landstrasse 42-44, D-60323 Frankfurt/M, registered with the local court Frankfurt/M under HRB 9340, authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (www.bafin.de). Allianz Global Investors GmbH has established a branch in the United Kingdom deemed authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website (www.fca.org.uk).
Virgin Wines’ shares are cheap for an online retailer and it is profitable The premium wines purveyor should flourish long after lockdown restrictions ease I f you missed out on the pandemic-driven share VIRGIN WINES price gains at Naked Wines BUY (WINE:AIM) fear not, for another (VINO:AIM) 224p listed online wine retailer offers a tasty proposition and fruitful Market cap: £126.5 million growth prospects. Open a position in Virgin Wines (VINO:AIM) at 224p, where the stock market newcomer trades at a steep discount to online peers. Based on estimates for as they couldn’t get out to growth, driven by increased the year to June 2022, Virgin bars, pubs and restaurants, investment in new customers Wines trades on 19.1 times benefiting the likes of Virgin and underpinned by predictable forward earnings, considerably Wines. While the sector is now subscription revenues. less than many other online- lapping tough comparative sales The near-term outlook focused companies on the UK figures, investors should look for consumer spending is stock market. at the longer-term prospects positive and Virgin Wines’ For example, fashion retailer rather than focus on whether exposure to trends including ASOS (ASC:AIM) trades on 2020’s big growth spike can be premiumisation in the alcoholic 33 times forward earnings repeated. drinks market, the shift to online and sector peer Boohoo Virgin Wines offers exposure and the growth of subscription (BOO:AIM) trades on almost to direct-to-consumer digital models mean outer year 32 times. Online musical earnings forecasts could prove instruments retailer Gear4Music Customers signed up to conservative. (GFM:AIM) trades on 38 times Virgin Wines’ WineBank club forward earnings. PREMIUM FOCUS Virgin Wines is cash generative As of Numbers AIM-traded Virgin Wines is one and profitable, whereas rival Jun-17 66,000 of the UK’s largest direct-to- Naked Wines is forecast to Jun-18 72,000 consumer online wine retailers remain loss-making as it invests Jun-19 75,000 and the exclusive licensee of the heavily to acquire customers and Feb-20 86,000 Virgin Wines brand in the UK and build stock levels. Jun-20 96,000 Ireland from Virgin Enterprises, Oct-20 102,000 an arm of Richard Branson’s THIRSTY CUSTOMERS Dec-20 118,000 Virgin empire. A lot of people ordered wine via Firmly focused on the the internet during the pandemic Source: Virgin Wines premium wine market, the 14 | SHARES | 22 April 2021
company has a reputation for figure is through direct-to- supplying high-quality wines consumer online retail channels, curated to customers’ tastes and with Virgin Wines speaking for good customer service. just 9%, so there is still a big The company has been growth opportunity. profitable in every year since Furthermore, the market for Jay Wright’s appointment as wine specialists is expected to CEO in 2008. It is highly cash grow by circa 3% per year with generative, and it is benefiting the online segment growing by from the structural shift in how roughly 11% to 12% per year people buy more through digital from 2021 to 2025. channels. The pandemic has turn and much higher margin Growing its craft beers and further entrenched delivery as structure all point to Virgin spirits range, Virgin Wines also a more viable and convenient Wines scoring as the premium sees opportunities to expand in option for wine drinkers. investment case on offer.’ overseas territories such as the Virgin Wines’ business model US, Europe and Australia over UNCORKING THE POTENTIAL is ideally suited for a digital age; the long term. Liberum Capital says the group it uses a wealth of customer has ‘a more disciplined and data and an open source buying SALES PROFILE targeted approach to growth’ model which ensures the Virgin Wines generated 33% than rival Naked Wines, offering company can source the best sales growth to £56.5 million in more choice in terms of its product at the best prices the year to June 2020, and then subscription schemes. while also creating a range reported £40.6 million sales Its wine clubs include of wines suited for the tastes in the first half of its current something called WineBank and stylistic preferences of its financial year. Liberum is looking whereby a customer deposits a customers. By selling exclusive for £70.3 million sales for the full set amount of money into their products, Virgin Wines maintains year, which implies second-half account each month and then premium prices and benefits sales of £29.7 million. buys wine when they are ready. from minimal returns. While that second-half figure For every £5 a customer saves would be slightly lower than into their account, Virgin Wines TASTY OPPORTUNITY the £30.3 million recorded gives them £1 extra to spend Management estimates the in the same period in 2020, on wine. current UK addressable retail Liberum believes its estimates Liberum says: ‘Stability of wine market, defined as are ‘prudent considering the management and track record, households who buy more than positive momentum across consistent delivery of profits, three bottles of wine per month unit economics and key stronger sales retention and with price points of over £6 per performance indicators’. paybacks, better cash flow bottle, is around £2.4 billion. For fiscal 2021, it forecasts generation from high stock Around £780 million of that £4.6 million pre-tax profit (2020: £2.8 million), rising to £6.5 Virgin Wines: Earnings and valuation million in 2022 and £8.1 million in 2023. [JC] PBT EPS PE 230 2020a £2.8m 4.7p 47.7 VIRGIN WINES 2021e £4.6m 8.3p 27.0 2022e £6.5m 11.7p 19.1 225 2023e £8.1m 13.2p 17.0 Source: Liberum Capital, Virgin Wines. June year end 220 PBT = Profit before tax, EPS = Earnings per share, PE = Price to earnings ratio A = Actual, E = Estimate MAR APR 22 April 2021 | SHARES | 15
Sponsored content WHAT IS REFLATION AND WHY IT IS PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL TO VALUE AND RECOVERY STOCKS? shorter duration ones. Therefore, in an inflationary environment, where interest rates are rising, these shorter duration value stocks become relatively more attractive. At a stock and sector specific level, there are many Hugh Sergeant, Head of Value and cheaply valued stocks in sectors which are more financially geared to interest rates moving upwards. Recovery at River and Mercantile. Perhaps the most obvious of these is financials. Banks, for example, have struggled in the context of the very low interest rates we have seen for several REFLATION CAN BE broadly defined as expansion years now, as it’s difficult to make much margin in the level of output of an economy, by increasing between what you charge to lend money and your government stimulus, using fiscal or monetary policy. cost of borrowing when both are near zero! As rates This is intended to stimulate corporate and consumer rise, this will support a better environment for banks’ spending, so benefits value and in particular, cyclical revenues and profitability. recovery stocks, which by their nature are geared towards an uptick in the economy. Given the benefit that a reflationary environment can bring to certain stocks and sectors, it is interesting to There is also what is known as the ‘duration’ effect look at how we position a portfolio to take advantage – how sensitive a company’s valuation is to changes of this. We will be looking in more detail at this in our in interest rates. Duration refers to how long it takes next article. for an investor to be paid back by a future stream of cash flows. Much of a high growth stock’s value is derived from earnings which will be delivered quite a The ES R&M UK Recovery Fund enables investors long time into the future, so they are known as long to have targeted exposure to those companies duration stocks. Value stocks on the other hand, that R&M believe to have particularly strong tend to have their value based on more imminent potential to create value, following a period of earnings, making them shorter duration. Changes depressed profits that could enable significant in interest rates affect the valuations of the longer recovery. To find out more, visit here. duration stocks more than they do those of the This is a financial promotion within the meaning of the FCA rules. For further details of the specific risks and the overall risk profile of this fund; as well as the share classes within it, please refer to the Key Investor Information Documents and ES River and Mercantile Funds ICVC Prospectus which are available on our website www.riverandmercantile.com. The value of investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. An investor may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. The information and opinions shared are subject to updating and verification and may be subject to amendment. The information and opinions do not purport to be full or complete. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, express or limited, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions shared by R&M, its partners, or employees. No liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information or opinions. As such, no reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions contained in this article. Prepared and issued by River and Mercantile Asset Management LLP (“R&M”), registered in England and Wales under Company No. OC317647, with its registered office at 30 Coleman Street, London EC2R 5AL. R&M is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 45308) and is a subsidiary of River and Mercantile Group PLC which is registered in England and Wales under Company No. 04035248, with its registered office at 30 Coleman Street, London EC2R 5AL. Equity Trustees Fund Services Ltd is the Authorised Corporate Director (the “ACD”) of the ES River and Mercantile Funds ICVC and of its sub-funds. The ACD is authorised in the United Kingdom and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 227807) and has its registered office at Pountney Hill House, 4th floor, 6 Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0BL.
ELEMENTIS DISCOVERIE (ELM) 137p (DSCV) 797p Gain to date: 8.8% Gain to date: 32.8% Original entry point: Original entry point: Buy at 125.9p, 18 February 2021 Buy at 600p, 10 December 2020 REPORTS THAT chemicals group Elementis ELECTRONICS ENGINEER (ELM) had been the subject of a takeover DiscoverIE (DSCV) is riding high deal that could value it at over 200p per share after its latest trading update proved unfounded. drove material upgrades to Late on 20 April its US-listed rival Innospec analysts’ earnings forecasts. revealed it had made a cash and shares bid of The company designs and 160p but that this offer had been rebuffed and a manufactures bespoke kit for highly regulated deal was no longer under active consideration. industries including healthcare, renewables, Analysts at Jefferies say that while they ‘expect transport and aerospace. the market to be disappointed by this news, the On 20 April the company said it expected ongoing takeover interest in Elementis implies underlying earnings for the 12 months to 31 that its shares have been cheap’. March 2021 to be above the upper end of market These latest developments came after expectations as trading momentum in the final Elementis rejected three takeover bids last year two months of the year continued to strengthen. from another US firm, Mineral Technologies, Group sales in the second half were 9% ahead the highest of which valued Elementis at 130p of the first half with a return to organic growth per share. of 1% in the last two months of the year, with The stock is still trading significantly below overall group sales for the full year 3% lower. the 200p mark, which is the level at which the ‘The strong order book and momentum company has long since argued it should be provide a solid base for sustained organic valued, and we think shareholders should be sales growth whilst further investing in growth patient until the shares reach this level. initiatives,’ the company said. Broker Peel Hunt upgraded its March 2021 and March 2022 pre-tax profit forecasts by 8% apiece to £29.6 million and £32.3 million respectively. Based on the upgraded forecasts for March 2022, the shares trade on a price to earnings ratio of 29.9. 850 DISCOVERIE GROUP 140 800 130 750 ELEMENTIS 120 700 110 650 100 600 90 550 80 500 70 450 60 400 50 2020 2021 2020 2021 SHARES SAYS: SHARES SAYS: While the shares trade on a rich rating, we’re happy We still think there is considerable unrealised value to stick with them while there is positive earnings in Elementis. [TS] momentum. [TS] 22 April 2021 | SHARES | 17
TRACSIS TOUCHSTONE TOP (TRCS:AIM) 820p STOCKS EXPLORATION FOR (TXP:AIM) 101.6p Gain to date: 30.2% 2021 Original entry point: Gain to date: 95.4% Buy at 630p, 23 December 2020 Original entry point: Buy at 52p, 25 June 2020 INVESTORS ARE getting far more confident that big events will get back going again this summer IT HAS been a volatile few as the UK’s vaccine rollout filters through the weeks for small cap oil and gas population, and investors have been snapping up play Touchstone Exploration Tracsis (TRCS:AIM) stock in anticipation. About (TXP:AIM) as it announced half of the Leeds-based transport infrastructure mixed news from its Ortoire and analytics software company’s business comes block in Trinidad & Tobago. from planning and running music festivals, motor However, confirmation that races and other major events that attract people the Cascadura Deep-1 well had in their thousands. yielded a significant natural gas discovery (12 Apr) Reopening came too late to save Glastonbury helped set the shares on the right path. this year but there is optimism that events later Touchstone had been knocked off course by in the summer will go ahead, such as the world- news that another well – Chinook-1 – contained renowned Isle of Wight Festival, pencilled in for oil rather than gas as investors had hoped and mid-September. expected (31 Mar). Tracsis management remain understandably Natural gas is particularly in demand in cautious given the difficulty of predicting the Trinidad thanks to its large industrial sector and Covid virus impact over the coming weeks and Touchstone’s apparent bias towards gas had also months, yet the company remains convinced insulated it from volatility in the oil price. of hitting its own 10% organic revenue growth The company has a large inventory of prospects target this year to 31 July 2021. to drill on Ortoire with a well on its Royston With a little luck and sensible precautions, prospect expected to be in focus soon. getting some ‘live’ shows going this summer Shore Capital analyst Craig Howie could push performance beyond that, and says the latest announcement provides ‘a importantly, spark a series of upgrades for fiscal robust basis for upgrades – which we would 2022, helped by roughly £2.5 million of costs expect to process following discussions with permanently stripped out of the business. management to firm up our expectations regarding commercial deliverability, timing and follow-on development plans.’ 850 800 TRACSIS 750 180 160 TOUCHSTONE 700 EXPLORATION 650 140 120 600 100 550 80 500 60 2020 2021 40 20 SHARES SAYS: 2020 2021 The stock is up 25% since the end of March, and this could be the start of a run of positive news SHARES SAYS: events. [SF] We see scope for further upside in Touchstone. [TS] 18 | SHARES | 22 April 2021
TREATT reflected the growth in those categories and the transition into ‘more sophisticated, solution- (TET) £11.45 driven’ products in citrus. The company is also in the process of a moving Gain to date: 88.6% to a new headquarters in Bury St Edmunds which should boost efficiency and capacity. Original entry point: Investec analyst Nicola Mallard commented: Buy at 607p, 29 October 2020 ‘Despite the pandemic’s obvious impact on the global beverage trade, Treatt continues to OUR BELIEF that it would be premature to take deliver strong momentum. The move to cleaner, profit in extracts and ingredients manufacturer healthier foods and beverages is increasing the Treatt (TET) in January has been vindicated with size of Treatt’s addressable market.’ the shares extending their recent gains off the back of another strong trading update (12 Apr). 1200 The company said it expected to grow its first- 1100 1000 TREATT half revenue by 14%, while also achieving an 900 improvement in margins. 800 Revenue for the six months to 31 March was 700 600 seen rising to around £60.8 million. 500 Growth was particularly strong in the tea, 400 health and wellness, and fruit and vegetables 2020 2021 categories, ‘meeting growing global consumer demand for healthier living,’ Treatt said. SHARES SAYS: We continue to see Treatt as a buy. [TS] The company said gross margin improvements DESIGNED TO PERFORM ACTIVELY MANAGED TRUSTED FOR OVER 35 YEARS DISCOVER AGT AT WWW.AVIGLOBAL.CO.UK Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Issued by Asset Value Investors Ltd who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
This is an advertising promotion The stars align for UK equities We believe a rare set of events have combined to make the UK equity market a highly attractive prospect right now - and Claverhouse Investment Trust could provide an attractive vehicle to capitalise on it. The income outcome EXHIBIT A – UK EQUITY INCOME INVESTMENT COMPANIES The Mercantile’s portfolio of medium and smaller- Investors around the world have grown 1.16 accustomed to dark times. The effects of the Peer group 1.14 pandemic continue to crush income hopes. In the 1.12 UK, dividend values fell by 44% in the course of JPMorgan 2020, hitting their lowest level since 2011.1 Against 1.10 Claverhouse Investment this backdrop, rare chinks of good news shine Trust plc 1.08 even more brightly – notably the announcement in Dividend cover January by JP Morgan’s Claverhouse Investment 1.06 Trust that it was increasing its dividend by 1.7%. 1.04 This remarkable achievement speaks to the in- 1.02 built advantage of investment trusts. Unlike ‘open- ended’ funds, they can draw on a fixed pool of 1.00 capital that allows them to plan for the long term, 0.98 since they can retain 15% of their income. And 0.96 Claverhouse’s enjoys especially strong reserves. In 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 fact, the trust has now increased its dividend 48 Revenue reserves (Years’ dividend) years in a row. That’s among the longest record of unbroken rises of any UK equity-focused trust. Source: Numis Securities Research, Datastream, Company Data, Bloomberg, as at 19 May 2020. The case for UK equities EXHIBIT B - UK EQUITIES CHEAP VS. OWN HISTORY (UK MARKET PRICE TO BOOK (X) Claverhouse managers firmly believe that having a UK Market Price To Book Value Max Min Median UK focus will give investors a positive advantage in 4.0 the market of early 2021. With Covid-19 vaccine 3.5 programmes rolling out, recovery is tangible. The investment skies are clearing. Given the heavy fiscal 3.0 support delivered by governments to bridge the 2.5 pandemic, interest rates are likely to be suppressed 2.0 for some time. But the US election and the long- 1.5 awaited resolution of Brexit have bolstered political 1.0 stability on either side of the Atlantic. 0.5 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research. Data from 1 January 1980 to 27 October 2020. Past performance is not a At this pivotal point of the pandemic, reliable indicator of current and future results UK stocks offer a tantalising prospect. WILL MEADON, CLAVERHOUSE PORTFOLIO DIRECTOR. UK equity prices are currently trailing well below recent performance: a glance at the records shows them hovering near the lows of the 1980s. “They are not only historically cheap, but attractively valued compared to overseas markets – notably the US, which is dominated by sky-high tech valuations,” Meadon says. 1 https://www.linkgroup.eu/insights/publications/uk-dividend-monitor-q4-2020/
This is an advertising promotion Under-performance in recent years has led many EXHIBIT C – UK MARKET CHEAP VS OTHER EQUITY MARKETS – THE >30% DISCOUNT FOR MSCI UK investors to avoid UK stocks. Yet the coming VS. MSCI WORLD IS AT OVER 40 YEAR LOW recovery might be their chance to shine. In particular, it could lift the currently unfashionable MSCI UK vs MSCI World Average % Premium On PE, PBV & PDiv 10 ‘value’ stocks – long-established sectors that appear to be undervalued compared to their 0 performance and potential – such as construction, -10 oil and gas and financial services. Claverhouse is Median -20 well placed to capitalise on such a development: its portfolio includes a range of both blue-chip -30 and mid-cap value stocks. -40 -50 Buy UK, buy global -60 Investing in UK equities doesn’t mean turning 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 your back on the rest of the world; quite the reverse. AstraZeneca’s UK-Swedish base and its Source: Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management using data from MSCI, I/B/E/S, Morgan Stanley Research. Based on PE (Price international vaccine rollout is currently the most to Earnings),PBV (Price to Book Value) and PD (Price to Dividend). Average relative valuations use 12 month forward data prominent example of the worldwide footprint of where available. Data from 31 December 1974 to 31 May 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and nominally UK companies. Like BP, Unilever or future results. GlaxoSmithKline, it’s a global firm that happens to be UK-listed. EXHIBIT C – LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTION EXPECTED RETURNS IN COMING 10-15 “In fact, 70% of the revenues of the UK’s top 100 YEARS stocks originate from overseas,” Meadon points out. “The UK economy is not the UK stock market, %, annualised return in GBP and the UK stock market is not the UK economy. UK large cap Emerging markets Asia ex-Japan UK core real estate Eurozone large cap “So investing in UK equities is a way of Japan buying into some of the best global Global infrastructure companies without having to pay the US large cap inflated valuations you see in other UK investment-grade corporate bonds equity markets. By opting for an UK cash Equity investment trust, investors can exploit Fixed income UK Gilts Alternatives this anomaly in a diversified way, while UK inflation-linked Gilts Historical return since 2009 benefiting from increased income. -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 The case for investing now Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results Given the twists of the past year, the course of the recovery remains uncertain. We believe this Even Meadon, who has spent much of his 38-year opportunity to get involved is brief – and underlines the case for investing in a structure industry experience at JP Morgan, has rarely narrowing. “Investors globally are, for the first such as Claverhouse, where future income is witnessed such an auspicious moment for UK time in 10 years at least, starting to show interest supported by a strong revenue reserve base. But equities. “This is a very unusual confluence of in value stocks,” Meadon warns. In our view, that a market that’s historically and globally cheap, events: those stars don’t align very often,” he means there’s a limited time for informed and simultaneously well placed for recovery, is a declares. investors to jump on board the UK equities craft singular event. Like any heavenly collision, however, the before it takes off. 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To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan. com/emea-privacy-policy. Investment is subject to documentation. The Annual Reports and Financial Statements, AIFMD art. 23 Investor Disclosure Document and PRIIPs Key Information Document can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Funds Limited or www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust. This communication is issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP. LV-JPM53174 | 03/21 | 0903c02a82b0521d
Evenlode to rival Fundsmith with new global growth fund The fund manager is best known for its income funds but is now looking at growth to accommodate its investment ideas B est known for its UK and global income funds, asset manager Evenlode is to launch a growth-themed global equity fund after its research unearthed many strong investment ideas which don’t pay much in the way of dividends and therefore wouldn’t feature in its other funds. TB Evenlode Global Equity (BMFX289) will invest in companies with attractive have low portfolio turnover with portfolio includes US tech structural growth opportunities, long-term holding periods. firms Accenture, Microsoft and sustainable competitive That puts it in direct Google owner Alphabet, as advantages, and sustainable competition for investors’ well as payment giants Visa and reinvestment that safeguards and money with Fundsmith Equity Mastercard, UK names including extends their businesses. (B4MR8G8) which follows a Relx (REL) and Unilever (ULVR), It will follow the same similar investment approach. and others like Heineken, principles of other Evenlode Nestlé, Booking Holdings, funds in looking for stocks with PORTFOLIO NAMES L’Oreal and LVMH. high return on capital and strong According to the March Now might be a good time to free cash flow and will aim to factsheet, Evenlode’s new launch a fund aimed at quality and growth stocks, with the Evenlode income funds: Track record market rotation into value and small caps creating a buying 3 years 5 years 10 years opportunity for bigger names EVENLODE INCOME 26.9% 57.3% 188.6% that have seen their share IA UK EQUITY INCOME 10.4% 29.0% 92.6% price weaken in the past few Source: FE Fundinfo, 19 April 2021. Total return months. It means Evenlode can pick up certain stocks potentially at a discount to 1 year 3 years their historical average. EVENLODE GLOBAL INCOME 28.0% 49.6% But co-manager Chris Elliott MSCI WORLD (IN GBP) 37.2% 53.5% says that didn’t come into the Source: FE Fundinfo, 19 April 2021. Total return team’s thinking in launching the Evenlode Global Income launched in November 2017, so there is no 5 or 10 year data fund, rather that after testing the 22 | SHARES | 22 April 2021
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