Tadj Oreszczyn UCL Energy Institute University College London
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Tadj Oreszczyn UCL Energy Institute University College London
Fuel Poverty
‘The first priority is therefore to ensure that by 2010
no older householder, no family with children, and
no householder who is disabled or has long-term
illness need risk ill-health due to a cold home’
The UK Fuel Poverty Strategy, DTI, 2001
• Typically 20,000 UK excess winter deaths in the UK
• UK definition of Fuel Poverty: spend more than 10% of households
income on fuel to maintain an adequate level of warmth.
• Warm Front is the Governments main tool for tackling fuel poverty
What is Warm Front ? • Targeted at vulnerable (elderly and young) fuel poor • In 2007/8, Warm Front received £350 million funding, allowing the Scheme to assist almost 270,000 households;
Warm Front • Increases temperature in living and bedrooms • Improves comfort • Reduces fuel cost • Reduces mould • As a consequence it improves mental health and should reduce winter deaths • But what does it do to energy use?
Warm Front Energy Use
• Mean energy use rises by 34%
• Two reasons
– Occupant behaviour
• increased temperature
+
• use of old heating
– Not refurbished as expected
UK set in Legislation 80% reduction in Carbon Emissions by 2050 (Climate Change Act) • “ The good news is that reductions of this size are possible without sacrificing the benefits of economic growth and rising prosperity...” • “But the potential will not be achieved without appropriate policies; financial incentives through carbon prices, taxes and subsidies; support for technology innovation, information and encouragement; and regulation when needed. The challenge is not the technical feasibility but making it happen.” - Commission for Climate Change 2008 • The “Great British Refurb”; “Whole house energy makeovers will be needed, and the aim is for 400,000 households a year to have this by 2015, with seven million homes benefiting by 2020”
Warm Front Evaluation Team
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Sheffield Hallam University
Ben Armstrong Reader Roger Critchley Visiting Research Fellow
Zaid Chalabi Lecturer Jan Gilbertson Research Fellow
Jack Dowie Professor Geoff Green Professor of Urban Policy
Shakoor Hajat Lecturer Mike Grimsley Senior Lecturer
Emma Research Fellow Bernadette Stiell Research Associate
Hutchinson
Megan Landon Research Fellow Bartlett, University College London
Wendy Research fellow Sung H Hong Research Fellow
MacDowall
Tadj Oreszczyn Professor
Maryjane Consultant
Stevens Ian Ridley Lecturer
Nicki Thorogood Senior Lecturer
Paul Wilkinson Senior Lecturer
National Centre for Social Research
Richard Research Director
Boreham
Thank You
What the Warm Front Scheme can
provide?
• Insulation
– Loft
– Cavity
– Hot water tank
– Draughtproofing
• Heating
– Gas or electric room heaters
– Central heating
– Timer controls for electric space and water heating
• Other measures
– Two low energy light bulbs
– Energy advice
– Security measures
• Up to £2,500
• around 12 million people across the UK aged 60 and over received Winter Fuel Payments in the 2007/08 winter. The current rate is up to £200, with those over 80 (over 2.4 million people) receiving up to an extra £100. The Chancellor, in his Budget 2008 speech, announced an additional payment for winter 2008/09 of £50 for households with someone aged 60‐79 and £100 for households with someone aged 80 or over. If Winter Fuel
Why is theory and practice not the same?
1. Applied physics wrongly
2. Not refurbished as modelled
3. Models do not take account of changes in
occupant behaviour
‘In theory,
theory and practice are the same,
but in practice,
they’re not’
Santa Fe Institute in Factor FourPHYSICS APPLIED INCORECTLY:
Comparison of air infiltration rate pre- and post-warm front
Pre-Warm Front Post-Warm Front
Infiltration rate Infiltration rate
WF Scheme N N % Change
(m3/hr/m2) (m3/hr/m2)
All properties 78 17.7 (s.d. 7.1) 143 17.0 (s.d. 7.2) -4%
w/o CH 22 19.1 (s.d. 7.8) 51 16.5 (s.d. 7.3) -14%
w/ CH 56 17.1 (s.d. 6.8) 92 17.2 (s.d. 7.2) +1%Not refurbished as modelled 20% cavity wall missing in insulation (n = 85) 13% loft area missing in insulation (n = 85)
envelope defects in new housing
Models do not take account of changes in occupant behaviour • “Rebound effect”, “Take Back”, “Comfort Factor”, “Take off” • The house and its energy system is complex. People interact with complex systems in complex ways. • Note, rebound effect only partly explains the difference between theory and reality and it is not the only change in occupant behaviour that has been incorrectly modelled
Theoretical boiler efficiency is not being achieved
+
“…very high proportion of tenants (80%) used some combination of
gas fire and central heating.”
(Energy efficient modernisation of housing: a UK case study, Bell, Lowe, 2000)So what do we need to do to get better agreement between theory and reality? • Work with industry to improve better site practices, supply chains etc. Action research with rapid monitoring and feedback. • Socio‐technical models with feedback that can answer what impact will fuel price rise have on “Take back”. We want to revisit Warm Front properties to collect missing data and investigate the impact of price rise. • Access better data to ground models
Models require relevant data
30000.0
25000.0
Average gas consumption
per dwelling (KWh/yr)
20000.0 y = -16.82x + 20800
2
R = 0.0018
15000.0
10000.0
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Stock SAPUK Winter Mortality • Source: National Statistics Office
Postcode Sector Average Dwelling Age vs Average Gas Consumption per Dwelling
30000
25000
y = -75.102x + 167672
2
R = 0.4126
20000
kWh per year
15000
10000
5000
0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mean Year of ConstructionPostcode Sector Average Dwelling Age vs Average Gas Consumption per Dwelling
30000
25000
y = -75.102x + 167672
2
R = 0.4126
20000
kWh per year
15000
10000
zero carbon for
5000
all energy
0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mean Year of ConstructionYou can also read
