SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING: DIVA PORTAL
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Department of Economic History and International Relations
Master’s Thesis in Global Political Economy with a specialization in International Relations
Supervisor: Jonathan M. Feldman
Student: Rolf Kusch
Autumn Term 2021
Sustainable urban planning:
A comparative analysis on the diffusion of bicycle infrastructure in Utrecht
and Stockholm1. Abstract
This study explores the greater diffusion of bicycle infrastructure in Utrecht in comparison to
Stockholm. It is a contribution to the larger research context of how to create space for more
sustainable forms of transportation in an effort to create more sustainable cities and to improve
overall ecological security. The theories that have been used to understand the relevant factors
are Fordism, cycling theory, the theory of political agenda setting, and mobility theory.
According to the theory, the diffusion of bicycle infrastructure is based upon geographical
factors, public opinion, and governmental policies. The study is made up of a comparative case
study focusing on geographical differences, budgetary differences and differences in the
automotive and bicycle industry, a content analysis of newspaper articles from two newspapers
in Sweden and two newspapers in the Netherlands, and a content analysis of the city council
meetings in Stockholm and Utrecht. The results show that the greater diffusion of bicycle
infrastructure is mostly related to political will. Politicians in Utrecht actively prioritize cycling
at the expense of automobile usage, whereas politicians in Stockholm do are not willing to
decrease other modes of transport to increase cycling infrastructure.
Keywords: political economy; ecological security; energy security; sustainable cities; political
will; public opinion; planning paradigms; intermodal transport; urban planning; bicycle
planning; bicycle infrastructure.
“If you plan cities for cars and traffic, you get cars and traffic. If you plan for people and
places, you get people and places.”
- Fred Kent
Page 2 out of 75Table of Contents
1. Abstract .............................................................................................................................. 2
2. Introduction and research question ................................................................................ 4
3. Background and purpose ................................................................................................. 5
4. Theory Section ................................................................................................................... 6
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 6
4.2 Research problem and research proposition ............................................................................... 7
4.3 Fordism ......................................................................................................................................... 7
4.4 Cycling Theory.............................................................................................................................. 9
4.5 Theory of Political Agenda Setting ............................................................................................ 11
4.6 Mobility theory ............................................................................................................................ 12
4.7 Model .......................................................................................................................................... 13
4.8 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 14
5. Methodology Section ....................................................................................................... 15
5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 15
5.2 Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 16
5.3 Case Study Analysis .................................................................................................................... 17
5.4 Case Study Element I: Physical Geography .............................................................................. 17
5.5 Case Study Element II: Budgetary Analysis ............................................................................. 17
5.6 Case Study Element III: Power Structure Research ................................................................. 18
5.7 Content Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 18
5.8 Content Analysis I: Media Framing .......................................................................................... 18
5.9 Content Analysis II: Government Policy ................................................................................... 20
5.10 Content Analysis III: Planning concepts and policy entrepreneurs....................................... 21
6. Empirical Analysis .......................................................................................................... 23
6.1 Historical context........................................................................................................................ 23
6.2 Case Study Analysis.................................................................................................................... 26
6.2 Case Study Element I: Physical Geography and climate .......................................................... 26
6.3 Case Study Element II: Budgetary Analysis ............................................................................. 28
6.4 Case Study Element III: Power Structure Research ................................................................. 31
6.5 Content Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 36
6.6 Content Analysis I: Media Framing .......................................................................................... 36
6.7 Content Analysis II: Governmental Policy ................................................................................ 43
6.8 Content Analysis III: Planning concepts and policy entrepreneurs......................................... 51
7. Conclusion & Discussion ................................................................................................ 55
8. Appendices ....................................................................................................................... 58
9. References ........................................................................................................................ 68
Page 3 out of 752. Introduction and research question
This study investigates why there is a greater diffusion of bicycle infrastructure in Utrecht in
comparison to Stockholm. The topic is interesting from a theoretical point of view because it
explores the local, domestic solution of cycling as a counterpoint to the effects of global
developments (global warming). It is important to create more sustainable cities to address and
diminish climate change and decrease the dependency on fossil fuels.
The research question is: “To what extend do topography and climate, public opinion towards
cycling, governmental policies, policy entrepreneurs, and the presence of planning paradigms
and the presence and potential influence of industries explain the greater diffusion of bicycle
infrastructure in Utrecht than in Stockholm?”
To answer the research question, this study uses theories such as: Fordism, cycling theory, the
theory of political agenda setting, and mobility theory. This study will develop a case study
analysis, based on governmental and scientific data, a content analysis of Dagens Nyheter,
Svenska Dagbladet, Trouw, and De Volkskrant, and a content analysis of the city council
meeting minutes in Utrecht and Stockholm on program budgets. These elements will be
complemented with interviews with local planners and historians.
This study will focus on two cities that both try to improve their cycling infrastructure:
Stockholm (Sweden) and Utrecht (the Netherlands). Stockholm wants to increase its modal
share of cyclists. In 2012 the city of Stockholm determined in Objective A3 of their Urban
Mobility Strategy that at least 15% of their modal split during rush hour should be occupied by
bicycles (Stockholm Stad, 2012a). Unfortunately, the entire cycling modal share of the city of
Stockholm was only 11% in 2015 (Trafikförvaltningen, 2016) even somewhat declining to 10%
in 2019 (Trafikförvaltningen, 2020). On the other side of the performance spectrum, there is
Utrecht. Utrecht is a city in the heart of the Netherlands and widely regarded as being one of
the best cycling cities in the world (Copenhagenize, 2019; Coya, 2020). The importance of
cycling is still on the rise in Utrecht, increasing its cycle modal share from 26,1% in 2015 to
27,6% in 2019 (CBS, 2016; CBS, 2021a). If one only counts movement within the municipality
of Utrecht, that figure goes even up to 48,5% in 2019. That difference exists because a lot of
people from other towns and cities enter Utrecht by train, which can be explained by Utrecht’s
central location in the Netherlands, the fact that Utrecht is connected from all sides by railway,
and because Utrecht houses multiple universities, science parks, and industrial areas.
Page 4 out of 753. Background and purpose
In the late 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st Century it has become more apparent that
the world is facing an ecological crisis due to the pollution of fossil fuels and the subsequent
global warming which requires immediate action (Monbiot, 2006). The usage of fossil fuels is
not only causing an ecological crisis but also an energy security crisis. Fossil fuels are limited
in supply and as supplies are dwindling the countries that use fossil fuels are (in)directly prone
to international conflict over these resources (Klare, 2009). One way to exit the downward spiral
of polluting the environment with conflict-ridden resources is to re-evaluate and restructure the
structures in society which create the demand for these resources in the first place. Authors like
Goodman (1962) envisioned alternative city designs and structures to diminish the usage of
automobiles and focusing on other forms of so-called ‘green transportation’ such as cycling
(Feldman, 2014) as a strategy to become sustainable and less dependent on fossil fuels.
In 2015, as an attempt of the international community to work towards sustainability, all
member states of the United Nations (UN) signed a pledge to commit to the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs), a program that is focused on addressing and improving
sustainability, peace, prosperity, and equality (UNDP, 2020). The EU and its member states
also pledged towards the SDGs, however a report of the Sustainable Development Solutions
Network (SDNS) and the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) shows that none
of the member states are on track to achieve the SDGs in 2030. One of the key recommendations
of the report to address the topic of sustainability is the increase of investments in sustainable
infrastructure for transport (SDNS and IEEP, 2019). The European Commission (EC)
acknowledges the importance of an improved sustainable infrastructure. In the European Green
Deal, a document that focused on how to make the EU a climate neutral continent by 2050, the
EC pledges to “adopt a strategy for sustainable and smart mobility in 2020 that will address the
climate change challenge and tackle all emission sources” (EC, 2019, p. 10). This resulted in
the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy (EC, 2020). In this document the EC stresses the
importance of “increasing the modal shares of collective transport, walking and cycling” (EC,
2020, p. 9). The EC argues for an increase in cycling infrastructure as a primary way of making
mobility more sustainable and as an important element of a strategy to decarbonize cities.
Cycling entails many benefits for its users and the environment around them. “It causes virtually
no noise or air pollution and consumes far less non-renewable resources than any motorized
transport mode.” (Pucher and Buehler, 2008, p.496). Cycling offers healthy exercise and takes
up little space, which also means little infrastructure. Cycling is affordable and cheaper than
Page 5 out of 75driving an automobile or using public transport, and so is its infrastructure (Ibid., 2008). When
it comes to private transport cycling is healthiest and the most sustainable mode of transport
from a social, environmental, and economic perspective.
The ability to cycle is dependent on the available infrastructure and research has shown that
improved infrastructure can improve cycling rates (Pucher and Buehler, 2010, Hull and
O’Holleran, 2014, Hong et al., 2020). When comparing the two cities, the impressive cycling
modal shares of Utrecht are not surprising as the city of Utrecht is constantly trying to improve
its infrastructure for cyclists. Some impressive examples are: smart traffic sensors which advice
cyclists if and at what speed they can catch the next green light, the cycling storage at the central
station which is three stories high, includes its own cycle repair shop and houses 12,500 parking
spots (Gemeente Utrecht, 2021a), the Daphne-Schippers bridge which integrates a school
building with an bridge exclusive to cyclists and pedestrians (Ibid., 2021b), and the four cycle
highways connecting Utrecht to four other Dutch cities, exclusively for cyclists, planned to be
finished in 2022 (Ibid.,, 2021c).
Theoretically, infrastructural decisions are made in urban planning and are, in part, dependent
on geographical factors, internal planning paradigms, budgets, and the focus of politicians. The
next section will go more into detail as what kind of specific factors play a role when it comes
to decisions surrounding bicycle infrastructure.
4. Theory Section
4.1 Introduction
This study is based on the following research question: “To what extend do topography and
climate, public opinion towards cycling, governmental policies, policy entrepreneurs, and the
presence of planning paradigms and the presence and potential influence of industries explain
the greater diffusion of bicycle infrastructure in Utrecht than in Stockholm?”
This study focusses on cycling and is part of a larger context in understanding how cities can
move towards more sustainable ways of transportation in response to the global environmental
and energy crises. The dependent variable in the research question is the diffusion of different
bicycle infrastructures. The focus here is to understand how different infrastructures have been
formed and what triggered their creation.
To properly address this topic, the literature review will analyze the previous literature on four
specific topics. The first section will connect this study to the larger framework of global
Page 6 out of 75political economy by discussing the influences of modernism and Fordism. The second section
explains the advantages of cycling, what affects the amount of cycling, and the role of
implemented policies and what factors created them. The third section will concern itself with
the theory of political agenda setting to understand how policy entrepreneurs influence
governmental policies. The final section will concern itself with mobility theory to understand
the deeper power relations within mobility planning.
4.2 Research problem and research proposition
The world is facing a global environmental and energy crisis. In the face of this crisis many
countries, regions and cities are trying to transform themselves to be more sustainable. One
such aspect is transport. Since the introduction of the Ford Model T automobiles have been
more accessible to a wider audience of people. The introduction of the Ford Model T impacted
cities around the world to serve the needs of this modern form of transport. Although its speed
and convenience were initially praised all-round, the influence of the automobile soon also
showed negative impacts on cities. Their numbers created congestion and their exhausts and
noise polluted the air. Cities now turn once again to transform themselves and serve more
sustainable forms of transport. One such alternative is the bicycle. The work Harvey on Fordism
shows the influences of mass production and mass consumption on transportation, the work of
Pucher, Buehler and others have addressed the advantages of cycling and how to motivate
cycling, the work of Kingdon addresses the importance of policy entrepreneurs and the work
of Koglin and others has addressed the ruling planning paradigm. Their combined work forms
a basis for explaining why different cycling infrastructures were created, but their work does
not clearly explain what triggered the diffusion of bicycle infrastructure in different cities in the
first place. If a pattern can become clear, then it can be used for replication in other cities to
persuade policy makers to serve the needs of the cyclist. This is the research proposition and a
smaller piece in the larger puzzle of addressing the energy and environmental crisis.
4.3 Fordism
This section will discuss the influence of Fordism on modern society and how that influenced
infrastructural decisions in urban planning. It will be mainly based on the work of Harvey
(2000) in an effort to explain how influences of mass production and mass consumption
influenced transport behavior and decision making in urban planning until this date,
highlighting the importance and potential bargaining power of industries.
Page 7 out of 75Fordism originally arose in the US but after the Second World War also made its way into
production processes in Europe. Harvey (2000) describes that Fordism, in contrast to many
other production developments, did not only influence the creation and development of new
mass production, but simultaneously influenced mass consumption. Ford’s production
developments allowed for cheaper automobiles (the Ford Model T) to become available for a
wider audience. This increased the consumption of automobiles, which in turn generated
revenue for creating cheaper production methods and increasing wages. The cycle of production
and consumption was at the base of Ford’s for ideas of societal transformation. Harvey
describes his observations of Ford as follows:
“What was special about Ford...was his vision, his explicit recognition that mass production
meant mass consumption, a new system of reproduction of labour power, a new politics of
labour control and management, a new aesthetics and psychology, in short, a new kind of
rationalized, modernist, and populist democratic society.” (Harvey, 2000, pp. 125-126)
As more people were able to afford an automobile, their mobility increased as well, allowing
them to live further away from their centrally located places of work in the highly urbanized
areas, towards the more spacious, calm, and pleasant suburban areas. This shift from highly
urbanized areas towards spatial decentralization also forced planners to rethink their perception
on how to organize cities. From now on, they had to consider that cities had to be accessible to
large groups of people travelling by automobile towards their work or place of leisure, which
was a direct argument to improve the infrastructure that facilitates the automobile.
Furthermore, Harvey also describes how power in societies shifted towards the capitalist class
and large industries, such as the automotive industry, in the early 1950s in Europe. The post-
war economic expansion was dependent on the cooperation between state institutions and
industrial production. On the institutional end, the state was responsible for facilitating services
required for economic growth and the expansion of capital. That resulted in infrastructure
appropriate for the automobile, which in turn lead to an increased acceptance and demand of
motorized traffic. The presence and potential influence of large production industries should
therefore be considered as a factor for the diffusion of infrastructure. The next section will
investigate additional factors for the development of bicycle infrastructure.
Page 8 out of 754.4 Cycling Theory
This section will take a closer look at the literature on cycling and bicycle infrastructure. It will
start off by describing the advantages of cycling, then it will move on to describing how cycling
can be promoted and finally it will identify factors that play a role in the diffusion of bicycle
infrastructure.
Bicycling entails many benefits for its users and the environment around them. The literature
on bicycling shows that the bicycle is a healthy and the socially, economic, and environmentally
sustainable alternative to the automobile (Pucher, 1997; Pucher and Buehler, 2006; Pucher and
Buehler, 2008; Pucher and Buehler, 2017; Pucher et al., 1999; Pucher et al., 2010; Pucher et
al., 2012).
Despite the many advantages for both the cyclist and his or her surroundings, cycling levels can
widely vary from city to city. Stockholm had a cycle modal share of 10% in 2019
(Trafikförvaltningen, 2020), whereas Utrecht had a cycling modal share of 27,6% in 2019
(CBS, 2021a). Cycling levels and infrastructure can be attributed to differences in topography
and climate, public opinion of cycling, and governmental policies aimed towards the motivation
of cycling and demotivation of other forms of transportation (Pucher, 1997; Pucher et al., 1999;
Pucher et al., 2012; Pucher and Buehler, 2006; Pucher and Buehler, 2008).
The first element is the topography and the climate of a city. The literature takes factors into
consideration such as the size, density, temperature, precipitation, and commuting distances.
The idea behind this is that distance and weather conditions play a huge role in the motivation
for people to cycle. Pucher (1997) also addressed the factor of hilliness of a city but concluded
that most urbanized areas in Europe can be considered “quite flat or only moderately hilly, thus
making bicycling quite feasible in almost any city” (p.33).
The second element is public opinion towards cycling. According to the literature public
perspective of cycling is both framed and articulated by the media. Positive coverage by the
media (such as health and environmental benefits) might motivate people to cycle more whereas
negative coverage by the media (such as safety concerns) might motivate people to cycle less.
Examples of negative media coverage of cyclists or cycling infrastructure in New York (Pucher
et al., 1999) or in Stockholm (Koglin 2013;2014) swayed public opinion against cycling and
cycling infrastructure. Besides motivating the public, the framing of the media impacts another
important group in their decision-making process: policy makers. To understand how, we now
turn to the next element that impacts cycling and cycling infrastructure.
Page 9 out of 75The third element is governmental policies. Policies directly impact the creation of cycling
infrastructure. To understand how policies and subsequent bicycle infrastructure are created,
the literature highlights three main factors: political will, funding, and the focus of planning
departments (Pucher et al., 2012).
Turning first to political will, the underlying motivation for political will to promote cycling
varies, but it often includes “environmental and public health benefits, reduced traffic
congestion and noise, improved traffic safety, and tourism” (ibid., 2012, p. 20). Political will is
heavily influenced by public opinion, which, in turn, is heavily influenced by the media.
Different accounts show that public opinion can determine the course of political will and public
policy related to the development of infrastructure (Pucher and Buehler, 2006; Pucher et al.,
2012; Koglin, 2013; Koglin, 2014; Brunlett and Brunlett, 2018). Political will can be measured
by expressions of political actors about bicycle infrastructure, budgets which are being made
available for a bicycle infrastructure and the eventual creation of the bicycle infrastructure.
Turning next to funding. Funding and budgets are an essential part in the policy making process
and are necessary to turn political will into concrete possibilities and choices. Funding is
therefore depending on political will and also gives an indication of political will. The stronger
the political will is for expanding bicycle infrastructure, the greater the possibilities are for
additional funding for bicycle infrastructure. On the other hand, if funding for bicycle
infrastructure is larger than for other forms of transport, then that is also an indication of a
stronger political will for bicycle infrastructure. Funding can be measured by looking at
allocated budgets for specific types of infrastructure and is often expressed in spending per
capita (Pucher et al., 2012).
Finally, turning to the focus and priority of planning departments. Even though political will is
established and funding is secured, accounts from planners in Stockholm show that funds tend
to dilute depending on the focus and priority of the planning department (Koglin, 2013;2014).
The focus and priority of planners is partly determined by key actors and concepts and
guidelines. The adherence to SCAFT-regulation by Swedish planners, favored motorized traffic
over cyclists (ibid., 2013;2014) and the AASHTO Guide for Development of Bicycling
Facilities had an effective ban on separated bike paths, championed by John Forrester and his
vehicular cycling theory, decreasing the chances that a planning department in the US would
include those in its proposals (Pucher et al., 2012). The level of integration and priority of
cycling within a planning department heavily determines the outcome of infrastructural
proposals. For example, in Dutch transport planning “bicycle planning is an integral part of
Page 10 out of 75transportation planning, and transportation planning is closely coordinated with land-use
planning” (Pucher et al., 2012, p. 266).
This section has shown is that the diffusion of a bicycle infrastructure is dependent on
topography and climate, public opinion, and governmental policies (which are motivated by
political will, funding, and the focus and priority of planning departments). The next sections
will focus on expanding these elements with additional factors. Section 4.5 will talk about how
political agenda’s get shaped in the public realm and will elaborate in the importance of key
actors, so called ‘policy-entrepreneurs’. Section 4.6 will elaborate on how priorities get set
within a planning department and will look at the influence of paradigms and the potential
influence of the automotive industry.
4.5 Theory of Political Agenda Setting
Political agendas shape what policies are created and how they are executed in the public realm.
It is therefore important to understand how political agendas are created in the first place.
Kingdon (2014) has created such a theory and argues that the entrance and survival of topics
on the political agenda depends for a great deal on the efforts of individuals who invest their
time and resources to shape the political agenda, the so-called ‘policy entrepreneurs’.
Policy entrepreneurs can be found inside or outside the government. The definition is quite
broad, but what all policy entrepreneurs have in common is that they are willing to invest their
resources to advocate or push for certain policy or ideas. In some cases, they find a problem
which they then try to solve, but in most cases, they already have a preferred ‘pet’ solution, and
they are looking for a problem to solve it with. They push their solutions because of personal
interests, or because they want to promote their own values and/or shape the public policy, or
simply because they enjoy the political game. The policy entrepreneur can shape public debate
in the media and/or shape what priorities and decisions are made within planning departments.
The work of Kingdon highlights the importance of single actors, and how they either shape the
public opinion or drive through certain policies. The presence and influence of policy
entrepreneurs is a factor that plays a role in understanding both public opinion as well as the
creation of governmental policies.
Page 11 out of 754.6 Mobility theory
This final section focusses on mobility to broaden the understanding of the priorities of planning
departments. As mentioned in section 4.4, governmental policies on infrastructure are strongly
influenced by decisions made within planning departments. Political will and funding are not
enough to ensure that the proper bicycle infrastructure is build. Koglin (2013;2014) notes that
planning departments themselves also need to prioritize bicycle infrastructure. In his research
on the differences of bicycle infrastructure between Copenhagen and Stockholm, he argues that
planning departments are influenced by two key factors.
Firstly, and most importantly, priorities within planning departments are heavily affected by
planning paradigms. A paradigm is a combination of ideas, theories and achievements that lay
the foundation for new problems and solutions in a specific discipline (Kuhn, 2012). A
paradigm is the leading school of thought which shapes the form of new problems and solutions.
In other words, a paradigm frames the thinking of the actors involved in a specific discipline.
Planning paradigms which are influenced by modernism therefore might prefer modern
solutions, such as automobiles and high-tech public transport. Paradigms can be identified by
analyzing content and see if it constantly refers to the same key actors, guidelines, or concepts.
For example, the AASHTO Guide for Development of Bicycling Facilities in the US has been
heavily influenced by John Forester and his vehicular cycling theory (Pucher et al., 2012).
Secondly, the priorities within planning departments are influenced by the presence of an
automotive industry. Koglin (2013;2014) argues that urban and transport planning are
influenced by societal developments. One of the key developments during the latter half of the
20th Century was the rise and acceptance of the automobile and therefore also the influence of
the automotive industry, which caused an emphasis on the importance of motorized traffic in
urban planning. Koglin therefore, in line with the work of Harvey (2000), argues that industries
and their influence should be factored in when analyzing the diffusion of infrastructure.
The analysis of Koglin (2013;2014) points out that, in order to understand the different diffusion
in bicycle infrastructures, we need to look at what choices are being made within planning
departments and what is prioritized. Besides the factors identified by Pucher et al. (2012), like
political will and funding, the work of Koglin (2013;2014) adds the factors of: the planning
paradigm and the presence and influence of the automotive industry.
Page 12 out of 754.7 Model
The literature review has analyzed four different theories. The four theories and the factors, or
focused summaries of such theories, are outlined below in Table 1.
The first theory is Fordism and the influence of mass production and mass consumption, which
highlights the factor of the presence and influence of automotive production industries on the
diffusion of infrastructure. This can be measured by assessing the presence and size of
production industries for automobiles.
The second theory is cycling theory, which highlights three main factors for the diffusion of
bicycle infrastructure: (1) the topography and climate of a city, (2) public opinion towards
cycling, and (3) governmental policies. The topography and climate can be measured by
looking at density, distances, temperature, and precipitation. The public opinion towards
cycling can be measured by looking at how the media frames cycling and alternative modes of
transport. The governmental policies can be measured by measuring the political will, the
available funding, and the priority of the planning departments.
The third theory is the theory of political agenda setting, which highlights the factor of policy
entrepreneurs and/or key actors and their influence on public opinion and/or governmental
policies. This can be measured by their presence and influence on public opinion and/or
governmental policies.
The final theory is mobility theory. Mobility theory emphasizes the importance of planning
paradigms and the presence and influence of the automotive industry as factors that influence
the decision making and prioritization process within planning departments. The influence of a
paradigm can be measured by looking at the key actors, concepts, and guidelines. The presence
and potential influence of industries can be measured by looking at the presence of large
manufacturers and industries, and the presence and budgets of lobbying groups and trade
associations.
Page 13 out of 75Table 1: Overview of the theories, their factors, or focused summaries of such theories
Theories Factors
Presence of production industries
Fordism - Presence and size of industries for automobiles, as their relative size and
importance can potentially dissuade bicycle infrastructure.
Topography and climate
- Density, as denser dissuade cycling due to higher volumes of traffic.
- Temperature, as very low or high temperatures dissuade cycling.
- Precipitation, as low levels of precipitation facilitate cycling.
- Windspeed, as low levels of windspeed facilitate cycling.
- Commuting distance, as lower commuting distances facilitate cycling.
Public opinion/Media framing
- Content and framing of content in Sweden and the Netherlands devoted
Cycling
to cycling infrastructure, as positive content frames public opinion
Theory
positive towards cycling infrastructure.
Governmental policies
- Political will, as political will is necessary to draft new policy, bargain
political leverage, and support new proposals for bicycle infrastructure.
- Availability of funding, as greater funding can finance more projects
aimed to develop infrastructure for bicycles.
- Focus of planning departments, as greater focus on bicycling leads to
more solutions for bicycle infrastructure.
Policy entrepreneurs
Political - Presence and influence of policy entrepreneurs and key actors, as their
agenda setting focus and agenda can amplify political will, budgets, and focus of
planning departments towards cycling infrastructure.
Planning paradigm
- Presence and influence of key actors and/or guidelines, as ruling
paradigms can influence the focus of planning departments towards the
expansion of bicycle infrastructure.
Potential influence of industries
Mobility
- Presence and size of the automotive and bicycle industry, as their
theory
relative importance to the economy can influence decisions of politicians.
- Presence and budgets of lobby groups, as active influence of cycling
lobby groups can move the focus of planners and politicians towards
cycling, whereas active influence of automotive lobby groups can move
the focus of planners and politicians towards automobile usage.
Source: Author based upon Brunlett and Brunlett (2018), Kingdon (2014), Koglin (2013),
Koglin (2014), Pucher (1997), Pucher and Buehler (2006), Pucher and Buehler (2008), Pucher
and Buehler (2017), Pucher et al. (1999), Pucher et al. (2010), Pucher et al. (2012).
4.8 Conclusion
The literature review has shown that the diffusion of a certain bicycle infrastructure is
dependent on multiple factors. Most importantly, the diffusion is dependent topography and
climate, potential influence of industries, public opinion towards cycling and governmental
policies. These factors are shaped by structural factors, public opinion, and the media. The
research so far has looked at how these the factors interact after political will and the priority
Page 14 out of 75on the political agenda have been established, but not how political will and priority on the
political agenda are influenced prior to the stage of establishment. It would therefore be
interesting to look at how political will and the priority on the political agenda get established
in the first placed. Political will and the priority on the political agenda are triggered by a
combination of public opinion (directly influenced by the media), policy entrepreneurs, and a
window of opportunity. An analysis of the media and city council meetings could provide an
answer on how political will and the priority on the political agenda is build up over time. The
analysis should focus on how statements are released in the media and city council meetings,
how cycling is framed, where the priority lies of politicians, what funding will be made
available, and what triggered focus towards cycling. The following section will give the
framework of such an analysis and will explain the methodology in more detail.
5. Methodology Section
5.1 Introduction
This section concerns itself with the research design of this study. The research will have the
form of a comparative case study analysis with descriptive statistics that explain the differences
in topography and climate, budgets for cycling infrastructure, and the present industries,
between Stockholm and Utrecht. A content analysis will be used to understand the differences
in public opinion, focus of politicians, policy entrepreneurs and planning paradigms. The
combination of these two analyses will address the following research question: “To what
extend do topography and climate, public opinion towards cycling, governmental policies,
policy entrepreneurs, and the presence of planning paradigms and the presence and potential
influence of industries explain the greater diffusion of bicycle infrastructure in Utrecht than in
Stockholm?”
The sources for the data for the comparative case study analysis will be derived online from the
websites and reports of the city of Stockholm, the city of Utrecht, the Swedish Meteorological
and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
(KNMI), and different trade associations. The sources for the data for the content analysis will
be derived from city council meeting minutes on program budgets in Stockholm and Utrecht
and articles published online by two of the biggest newspapers in Sweden: Dagens Nyheter and
Svenska Dagbladet, and two of the biggest newspapers in the Netherlands: Trouw and
Volkskrant. Complementary interviews will provide information on key actors, possible
planning paradigms and potential influence of industries.
Page 15 out of 755.2 Methods
There are three key variables that influence the diffusion of bicycle infrastructure: topography
and climate, public opinion towards cycling and governmental policies (which are dependent
on planning paradigms, policy entrepreneurs, and the presence and influence of industries). A
place and time are needed to address these variables. The places are the city of Stockholm and
the city of Utrecht. The timeframe revolves around the key events of the bicycle plan of the city
of Stockholm, that aims to invest 1.3 billion SEK between 2012 and 2018 to increase the cycle
modal share from 10% up to 15% by 2030 (Stockholm Stad, 2012a), and the bicycle plan of the
city of Utrecht, that aims to increase investments for cycling between 2015 and 2020 and have
the bicycle as primary mode of transport in the city by 2040 (Gemeente Utrecht, 2015a). Now
this section will continue to explain how the variables will be analyzed.
The methods will be divided into two sections. The first section addresses what will be analyzed
by a case study analysis. Statistics on the topography and climate, the funding made available
for cycling infrastructure, and the cycle infrastructure in meters per capita, will be compared
for Stockholm and Utrecht to see which city has the best conditions and which city actually
develops the most cycling infrastructure. The case study analysis will also address the factor of
the potential influence of industries by analyzing the size of the industries and their present
lobbies and trade associations, how many members they have and what their budgets are. The
second section addresses what will be analyzed by a content analysis. The content analysis has
a method has been chosen because it is flexible and transparent, it allows for an analysis over
time, and it is a relatively unobtrusive method (Bryman, 2012, pp. 304-305). This analysis
focusses on three different forms of transport: cycling, automobile use and public transport. It
will investigate how the media frames them what kind of statements politicians make around
them and what key actors, concepts and planning paradigms influence the overall discussion.
Both analyses will be complemented with three semi-structured interviews. The semi-structured
nature has been chosen because of its flexibility and to explore the viewpoint of the interviewees
(Bryman, 2012, pp. 471-473). The three interviewees are: Dr. Till Koglin, who has researched
Swedish mobility planning for the last thirteen years with a specific focus on cycling, Frans Jan
Van Rossem, who has been working at the city of Utrecht for twenty-two years and has been
the program manager mobility for the last nine years, and Louise Bergström who is group
manager for a planning department at Sweco and has more than thirteen years of experience
with urban planning in Stockholm. Their perspective gives more insight on key actors, and the
presence of a planning paradigm and/or potential influence of industries.
Page 16 out of 755.3 Case Study Analysis
5.4 Case Study Element I: Physical Geography
Firstly, topography and climate will be addressed. By comparing the topography and climate
of Stockholm and Utrecht this study shows which city has the best natural conditions for
cycling. These statistics will be analyzed by comparing the factors of population, size, density,
temperature, precipitation (rain and snow), and windspeed.
The first factor is the physical size and population of a city. The size of a city can be measured
by its landmass and is displayed in square kilometers, showing how big or small a city is,
following the logic that it is easier to move from point A to B in a smaller city because of the
smaller physical distance (Pucher and Buehler, 2006). Besides that, commuting distances will
also be addressed as those display the actual distances that people travel to work and study.
Another indicator is population density, expressed in amount of people per square kilometer,
showing how many people live in the same place, following the logic that the higher the city
density, the higher the volumes of traffic will be, which demotivates people (especially less
experienced cyclists) from cycling because of the perceived dangers of interacting with other
traffic (Ibid., 2012). The second factor is the temperature within a city. Temperature directly
affects cycling as too cold temperatures or too warm temperatures force people to take
alternative modes of transport. The range in temperature will be measured by comparing the
average minimum temperature and the average maximum temperature (Ibid., 2006), which will
be displayed in degrees Celsius. The third factor is precipitation, which is generally a
combination of snow and rain. High levels of snow and rain make a city unattractive to cycle
in. Precipitation will be displayed in millimeters and number of days with precipitation (Ibid.,
2006). Besides that, special attention will be paid to snowfall as snow can physically obstruct
cycling. The amount of snowfall in a city will be measured in days with snow and average
maximum depths of snow in centimeters. The fourth factor will be windspeed as low
windspeeds can motivate cycling whereas high windspeeds can demotivate cycling. Windspeed
will be measured in meters per second. The result will give an overview that shows which city
has the best natural conditions for cycling. The data for these elements will be collected from
each country’s meteorological institute and the cities’ respective websites and reports.
5.5 Case Study Element II: Budgetary Analysis
Turning now to funding for cycling infrastructure. Funding is both an outcome of political will
and an indication of political will. Therefore, it is important to understand how much funding
Page 17 out of 75has been made available in the budgets of the respective cities. Descriptive statistics will be
used to compare the budgets of both Stockholm and Utrecht for cycle infrastructure and will be
displayed in total amount of Swedish krona per year and average amount of Swedish krona per
capita per year. Like funding, the length of cycling infrastructure is also an indication and result
of political will. It shows what politicians and policy makers do instead of just talking about
what they intend to do. Therefore, it is an important measure to display and will be measured
in total kilometers and meters per capita. These statistics will be derived from each cities’
websites and annual or infrastructural reports.
5.6 Case Study Element III: Power Structure Research
Turning finally towards the analysis on the possible presence of and potential influence of
industries. As mentioned in the theory section, the presence and influence of (automotive)
production industries can affect the decisions made in planning departments as well as the larger
public debate. Figures on automobile and cycling lobbies and trade associations in the
Netherlands and Sweden will therefore be compared, via their membership numbers and
budgets, to show their relative potential influence. The sources will be derived by finding out
which organizations exist in Sweden and the Netherlands and subsequently look at their
websites and available reports on membership numbers and budgets. Besides that, the relative
amount of spending on bicycle infrastructure, and the framing of the different modes of
transport, and the complementary interviews with historians and actors in the industry, will also
show signs of whether the influence of industries is present and what potential influence they
have. If the data shows that automobile industry and lobbies are bigger than bicycle industry
and lobbies, and that frames automobiles more positive than bicycles, that can be seen as an
indication for the potential influence of the automotive industry.
5.7 Content Analysis
5.8 Content Analysis I: Media Framing
The second section will address the factors of public opinion, governmental policies, and key
policy entrepreneurs and concepts, and how they will be analyzed via a content analysis.
Turning first to public opinion. Public opinion is both framed and articulated by the media,
therefore this study will analyze the articles of four prominent national newspapers on cycling
infrastructure in relation to automobile use and public transport. This is to avoid bias as these
three modes of transport are competing not only with each other, but also for the same limited
amount of space within a city. Therefore, it important to know how cycling infrastructure is
Page 18 out of 75framed in relation to automobile use and public transport. To understand what most people read
and how their opinion is being framed and articulated, this study looks at the two of the biggest
newspapers in Sweden: Dagens Nyheter and Svenska Dagbladet (Medialandscapes, 2021), and
in the Netherlands: Trouw and De Volkskrant (OCW, 2021). In terms of their political stance,
Dagens Nyheter is independently liberal and Svenska Dagbladet is independently liberal-
conservative (Nationalencyklopedin, 2021a; 2021b), the same information is not as readily
available for the Dutch newspapers, but both newspapers claim to be politically neutral (DPG
Media, 2021; Trouw, 2019). An analysis on voters shows that people who read De Volkskrant
vote on the left of the political spectrum whereas people who read Trouw usually vote centrum-
right (Algemeen Dagblad, 2015). The political background is important to overcome any
political bias within this study. This study will focus on analyzing non-opinionated news articles
to overcome any personal bias of authors.
The analysis will examine the attitude towards cycling infrastructure. For this element, a sample
of thirty articles for each country and time frame will be selected, amounting up to a total
maximum of 180 articles to analyze. The timeframes revolve around the cycling plan for
Stockholm, which started in 2012 and ended in 2018, and the cycle plan in Utrecht, which
started in 2015 and ended in 2020. Therefore, articles will be analyzed prior 2012, during 2012-
2018, and after 2018 for Stockholm and articles will be analyzed prior to 2015, during 2015-
2020, and after 2020 for Utrecht. The selection will be based on the entire population divided
by ninety (which is the sample size). The resulting number indicates the percentile at which an
article shall be analyzed. To identify the right articles the coding scheme identifies: an article
that claims or suggests that more cycling infrastructure would be positive, negative, or neutral
for Sweden or the Netherlands. The analysis focusses on understanding the context and attitude
of the article towards cycling infrastructure, and if possible, towards automobiles and public
transport. The level of analysis are the articles, and the interpretative attitudes will be classified
in either (a) positive, (b) negative, (c) or neutral. The data will be derived from the respective
newspaper’s websites while searching for the key terms “cycling” and “infrastructure”. Table
2 below presents the overview in which the attitudes will be presented. The attitudes towards
cycling infrastructure in relation to automobiles and cycling infrastructure in relation to public
transport will be compared, with attitudes ranging from positive to negative about cycling
infrastructure and from positive to negative about automobiles, and positive and negative about
public transport. The outcome shows how the newspapers frame cycling infrastructure in
relation towards automobiles and cycling infrastructure in relation to public transport.
Page 19 out of 75Table 2: Overview of attitudes in relationship to different modes of transport for articles
Positive Neutral Negative Positive Neutral Negative
about about about about about about
automobiles automobiles automobiles public public public
transport transport transport
Positive
about cycling
infrastructure
Neutral about
cycling
infrastructure
Negative
about cycling
infrastructure
Source: Author’s construction.
5.9 Content Analysis II: Government Policy
Turning now to governmental policies. Governmental policies are driven by political will,
funding, and the focus of planning departments. Funding will be analyzed by a case study
analysis. Political will be analyzed by a content analysis on how much politicians advocate the
expansion of bicycle infrastructure in comparison to infrastructure for automobiles and public
transportation, in city meeting minutes on program budgets. Similarly, to the analysis of public
opinion, a sample shall be drawn from political statements in city council debates. A sample of
thirty statements for each country and time frame will be selected, amounting up to a total
maximum of 180 statements to analyze. The selection will be based on the entire population
divided by ninety (which is the sample size), the resulting percentile will indicate which
statements will be analyzed. The analysis focusses on understanding the context and attitude of
each statement towards the infrastructure for bicycles, automobiles, and public transport. To
identify the right statements the coding scheme focusses on the infrastructure for cycling and
how that is framed in city council meetings in relationship to other modes of transport. The
coding scheme identifies: a statement that claims or suggests that Utrecht or Stockholm should
expand or scale down their cycling infrastructure.
The relevant units of analysis are the statements themselves, and the interpretative attitudes will
be classified in either (a) do not change cycling infrastructure, (b) somewhat increase cycling
infrastructure, (c) or strongly increase cycling infrastructure in relation to the attitude towards
the infrastructure of other modes of transport. The data will be derived from city council
meeting minutes on program budgets from the online governmental databases of Stockholm
(Insyn Sverige and Edokmeetings.se) and Utrecht (iBabs online), while searching for the key
Page 20 out of 75term “bicycle”. The content analysis will be compared to the descriptive statistics of the actual
available budgets and the amount of kilometers cycle infrastructure. The outcome shows how
political will evolves from a discourse, to promised funding, to actual results. Table 3 below
presents the overview in which the attitudes will be presented. The attitudes towards cycling
infrastructure in relation to automobile infrastructure and cycling infrastructure in relation to
public transport will be compared, with attitudes ranging from positive to negative about
cycling infrastructure and from positive to negative about automobile infrastructure, and
positive and negative about public transport. The outcome shows how the public policy makers
frame cycling infrastructure in relation towards automobile infrastructure and cycling
infrastructure in relation to public transport.
Table 3: Overview of attitudes in relationship to different modes of transport for
political statements
Increase Do not Decrease Increase Do not Decrease
auto- change auto- public change public
mobile auto-mobile mobile transport public transport
infrastruc- infrastruc- infrastru- transport
ture ture cture
Strongly
increase cycling
infrastructure
Somewhat
increase cycling
infrastructure
Do not change
cycling
infrastructure
Source: Author’s construction.
5.10 Content Analysis III: Planning concepts and policy entrepreneurs
Finally, the content analysis of both the newspaper articles as well as the statements of the
politicians will be closely scrutinized for any key actors or concepts. This study will therefore
be able to identify possible policy entrepreneurs and concepts that drive public debate, and
influence planning decisions. In addition, three complementary interviews have been held to
give additional context to the diffusion of bicycle infrastructure in Stockholm and Utrecht. If a
pattern of actors or concepts becomes clear, or if the interviewees argue that the automotive
industry has a possibly positive or negative significant influence on the diffusion of bicycle
infrastructure, then this study can possibly identify a paradigm or the potential influence of the
automotive industry which influences the diffusion of bicycle infrastructure. Table 4 below
summarizes the discussion from section 5.3 until 5.10 in one overview.
Page 21 out of 75Table 4: Overview of the used methods, factors, indicators, measurements, and databases
Method Analyzed Unit of Indicators and explanation Databases
factor analysis
- Size and commuting distance, measured in km2, as shorter distances facilitate
cycling.
- Density, measured in capita per km2, as lower volumes of traffic facilitate
cycling. SMHI, KNMI, City
Topography
City - Temperature, measured in °C, as tepid temperatures facilitate cycling. of Stockholm,
and climate
- Rain / Snow, measured in millimeters and days with precipitation, as lower Gemeente Utrecht
volumes of precipitation facilitate cycling.
Case - Windspeed, measured in meters per second, as lower volumes of wind facilitate
Study cycling.
Available City - Budgets for cycling, measured in SEK and SEK per capita, as more funding City of Stockholm,
budgets budgets enables more projects to expand cycling infrastructure. Gemeente Utrecht
- Presence and size of the automotive and cycling industry and lobby groups, Websites and
Potential measured in membership figures and turnover/budgets in SEK, as a smaller reports from
Country
influence of automotive industry/lobby and a larger cycling industry/lobby can motivate lobbies and trade
wide
industry political decision-making in favor of cycling. These are complemented with the associations and
perspectives of the complementary interviews. interviews
- Positive/neutral/negative articles about cycling infrastructure, measured in Dagens Nyheter,
Public
Articles relative context and framing, as articles frame public opinion towards cycling Svenska Dagbladet,
opinion
infrastructure in a positive or neutral or negative way. Trouw, Volkskrant,
- Positive/neutral/negative statements about cycling infrastructure, measured in iBabs Online,
State-
Content Political will relative context and framing, as statements articulate political opinion towards Insyn Sverige and
ments
analysis cycling infrastructure in a positive or neutral or negative way. Edokmeetings
Policy
Articles/ - References to key actors or concepts that (have) positively impact(ed) the Content analysis of
entrepreneurs
State- diffusion of bicycle infrastructure. These are complemented with the perspectives this study and
/Planning
ments of the complementary interviews. interviews
paradigm
Source: Author based upon Brunlett and Brunlett (2018), Harvey (2000), Kingdon (2014), Koglin (2013), Koglin (2014), Pucher (1997), Pucher
and Buehler (2006), Pucher and Buehler (2008), Pucher and Buehler (2017), Pucher et al. (1999), Pucher et al. (2010), Pucher et al. (2012).
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