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St at e Clim at e O f f ice o f N o r t h Car o lin a May 2017 - April 2018 Annual Report The State Climate Office of North Carolina (SCONC) serves as the primary scientific extension resource for weather and climate science focused on North Carolina. Founded in 1976 and chartered as a Public Service Center by the UNC Board of Governors in 1998, SCONC focuses on service to public and private sectors of North Carolina through climate science extension, research, and education. Staff Dr. Aaron Sims Ms. Heather Aldridge Interim Director / Acting State Climatologist Interim Associate Director / Assistant State Climatologist Ms. Ashley Hiatt Mr. Sean Heuser Applied Meteorologist ECONet Manager Mr. John McGuire Ms. Rebecca Ward Applied Meteorologist & Developer Extension Climatologist Mr. Nathan Parker Mr. Corey Davis SystemsProgrammer / Analyst Applied Climatologist Ms. Darrian Bertrand Ms. Colleen Karl Applied Climatologist Outreach Specialist Ms. Aurelia Baca Mr. Joe Taylor Climatologist Instrumentation Technician Students Ms. Veronica Fall Research Assistant Ms. Kelley DePolt, Undergraduate Assistant Mr. Alex Mitchell , Undergraduate Assistant Mr. Andrew Henderson, Undergraduate Assistant Mr. Karl Schneider, Undergraduate Assistant Ms. Lexia Williams, Undergraduate Assistant St at e Climat e Office of Nort h Carolina Phone: (919) 515-3056 College of Sciences Fax: (919) 515-1441 1005 Capability Drive E-mail: sco@climate.ncsu.edu Centennial Campus Box 7236 Web: climate.ncsu.edu Raleigh, NC 27695-7236 Twitter: @NCSCO 2
Execu t iv e Su m m ar y ................................................................ 4 M issio n ......................................................................................... 7 H igh ligh t s f r o m t h e Past Year ............................................. 8 Table Ex t en sio n .................................................................................... 10 of A p p lied Resear ch ..................................................................... 32 Contents Ed u cat io n an d O u t r each ....................................................... 43 A p p en d ices ................................................................................. 52 A : C lim at e In f o r m at io n Ser v ices .................................... 52 B : Im p act St at em en t ........................................................... 56 3
publicat ions authored by SCONC DATA AND WEB staff and students. SCONC SERVICES continues to provide enhanced More than 1.2 million visits to the climate services via contracts and SCONC website last year. Since grants with 8 contract and grant 2009, web traffic has increased Execut ive proposals submitted (6 funded; 2 pending). 483%. Over half of all webpage visits were to online educational Summary ENVIRONMENTAL content created by SCONC staff MONITORING and students. Data provided by the NC Users submitted 5 million data Environment and Climate queries through the SCONC online Observing Network (ECONet) data retrieval system ? an increase enhance our public service mission of nearly 50% compared to the and support agricultural research previous year (3.4 million). HIGHLIGHTS and operations, Cooperative Nearly 3 million data queries were The State Climate Office of North Extension, and educational made through the SCONC Carolina (SCONC) employed 12 outreach. web-services application scientists and staff, 1 graduate Over half a billion observations programming interface, which is an students, and 5 undergraduate were recorded at NC ECONet advanced, customizable data students during the past year. stations, which are maintained and retrieval service. In addition to daily climate service operated by SCONC. SCONC provides access to 85 activities, 15 collaborative SCONC scientists made 158 terabytes of gridded data for research and applied projects ECONet site visits to perform partners and end users, and were funded and included effort routine or emergency averages over 6 terabytes of across many sectors including maintenance, covering 21,464 internal climate data transfarers, health, agriculture, and vehicle miles, with 272 sensors with about 2.2 billion data records transportation. serviced or replaced. selected, updated, or inserted each These projects and collaborations month. yielded 6 peer-reviewed 4
RESEARCH AND on improving climate and health Weather Intelligence Portal, a EXTENSION information related to heat stress. real-time monitoring tool for weather and fire risk information. PARTNERSHIPS For over a decade, the SCONC has The SCONC, through a partnership partnered with NC Department of The SCONC was part of a team of with NCSU Plant Pathology that is Transportation (NCDOT) to scientists, led by RTI International, now in its 14th year, provides provide an operational rainfall that participated in the Defense routine advisories for two peanut alert system to meet their water Coastal/Estuarine Research foliar diseases. quality permitting and storm water Program (DCERP). This program control requirements. This effort conducted monitoring and The SCONC has been been an has been estimated to save more research to understand coastal and integral member of the NC than 113,000 work hours each estuarine ecosystems within the Drought Management Advisory year. During the past year, this context of a military training Council for over two decades. This partnership has been extended to environment. This six-year project interagency coordination and help NCDOT identify high-risk concluded during the past year. information exchange body is areas susceptible to extreme tasked with assessing conditions SCONC scientists serve as the precipitation events. and issuing drought advisories for climate focal point on the Spatial the state of North Carolina. Analytic Framework for Advanced Through its efforts on the Council, Risk Information Systems SCONC participates in weekly (SAFARIS) project, which is a drought monitoring conference collaboration with colleagues at calls and provides public NCSU?s Center for Integrated Pest presentations and media Management (CIPM) and USDA interviews on North Carolina Animal and Plant Health moisture conditions. Inspection Service (APHIS) working to estimate global risk to The SCONC contributed to trade of agricultural products. engagement activities of the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and For over 12 years, the SCONC has Assessments, a NOAA Research partnered with the North Carolina Integrated Sciences and Division of Water Resources Assessments, to improve drought (DWR) to provide weather and monitoring and advance the water data to DWR for their Water science related to fire and Resources Information, Storage, smoldering risk in organic soils. Through a USDA cooperative Analysis and Retrieval System agreement, the SCONC provides (WRISARS). UNC-Chapel Hill and NCSU have technical, scientific, and extension partnered together on the NOAA expertise for the USDA Southeast Southeast Regional Climate Regional Climate Hub extending Center (SERCC) since 2007. As climate science to support part of this collaboration, the informed decision making on SCONC develops and maintains southeastern US forests, the technological infrastructure, rangelands, and croplands. As part web services, and online climate of this agreement the SCONC has tools for SERCC. This year the modernized and expanded the Fire SCONC and SERCC have worked 5
OUTREACH AND evolving drought conditions, students and the broader EDUCATION snowfall and winter weather, and community to introduce weather seasonal outlooks. and climate concepts through The SCONC regularly leads and precipitation data collection. attends educational outreach The SCONC is continuing to host a events across the state of North STEM program, funded by the Carolina. In 2017-18, staff and Burroughs Wellcome Fund, for Studentscompare temperature measurementsfrom hand-held students participated in 14 rising 7th-grade students in rural thermometersto those recorded by outreach events, 4 of which were northeastern NC. Through this research-grade sensorson SCONC's large, public events including NC program, the SCONC is engaging mini tower. State College of Science?s Eclipse Day and the 2018 Farm Animal Days. More than 20 presentations on North Carolina?s climate, weather, and ongoing SCONC research projects were given to community groups, professional groups, conference attendees, and visiting scientists or professionals. Staff and students wrote 25 posts for the SCONC Climate Blog, receiving 40,740 total views. In the past year, the SCONC gave more than a dozed media interviews on events such as 6
Mission Asapproved by the UNC Board of Governors, October 8, 1998 The mission of SCONC as a Public Service Center is to define, predict and disseminate information about the climatic and environmental factors that impact the people of North Carolina. SCONC has defined the following objectives as the primary focal points of service to the people of North Carolina: EXTENSION - Provide the most accurate climate information to the citizens of North Carolina. - Assist North Carolina state agencies in climate-environment interaction issues and related applications. - Establish, operate, and maintain an extensive meteorological network across North Carolina and archive and disseminate this data to the public in a timely fashion. - Assist other extension scientists by integrating climate information into applications such as agricultural and environmental models. - Increase public awareness of variations in North Carolina?s climate and environment. RESEARCH - Study North Carolina's climate and its interaction with the environment. - Investigate the effects of climatic variations on agriculture, air pollution, and natural resources and develop forecasts that assist in resource management. EDUCATION - Interact with K-12, community college teachers and students, and with other community organizations on different aspects of North Carolina?s climate and environment. 7
scheme and updated fonts. Menus NEW WEBSITE LAUNCHED were restructured and simplified to In late 2017, SCONC launched a feature the most-viewed content, new website designed improve the such as climate education materials, accessibility of climate information. data request and retrieval options, Highlight s The new website was built as part of several user-engagement and and web services including maps and tools. A new map and graphing from Last feedback sessions to inform the design, functionality, and usability. tool was added to the homepage, Year Because the ways in which users access the website has evolved, allowing visitors to quickly view a snapshot of current conditions across the state and download SCONC used a responsive design to recent data measured by SCONC?s improve the experience and ECONet. Every staff and student accessibility for users with various had the opportunity to participate sized screens, including in this enormous undertaking. smartphones. The new website features a lighter, modern color The map pictured above isfrom the new SCONC homepage, where near-real-time conditionsfrom the NC Environment and Climate ObservingNetwork (ECONet) are displayed. Userscan toggle between several parametersto the left of the map, or view more parametersby clicking "View Full Map." Finally, clickingthe "Recent Observations" button beneath the map showsa time seriesof information for the station closest to the user'slocation. 8
FIVE-YEAR REVIEW North Carolina as well as state worked as an undergraduate agencies, and continued research assistant at SCONC SCONC completed its five-year facilitation of cross-disciplinary before graduating from NC State in review process of the Center in development of applications 2013 with a B.S. in Meteorology January 2018. Over the past five influenced and driven by and Marine Science. He recently fiscal years (2013 ? 2017), SCONC climate-environment interactions. received his M.S. in Soil Science developed decision support SCONC also plans to continue to with a systems and information portals serve as a climate science focal certificate for multiple sectors including point for regional and federal in GIS. forestry, fire weather, and water partners, and contribute to During his resources. Services provided to multi-state environmental needs. graduate stakeholders include pest and studies, he disease alerts and forecast NEW TEAM MEMBERS used services for agricultural resource SCONC welcomed two new lightweight cameras mounted on management. SCONC has also members to our staff over the last small unmanned aircraft to detect sustained engagement and service year. nitrogen levels in wheat and corn. to the public health community in Darrian Bertrand is an Applied He is now providing maintenance North Carolina. Climatologist joining us from and data quality control for the SCONC has a 41-year history of Oklahoma. She received a B.S. in ECONet. He has worked on a serving the citizens of North Meteorology with minors in statistical model to forecast soil Carolina. Over this period, the mathematics and GIS, and an M.S. moisture and is currently working demand for weather and climate in Geography from the University on developing a multi-level soil information and services has of Oklahoma. During her graduate temperature model for use in data grown exponentially, and studies, she quality control routines. subsequently, the program has used expanded to meet this demand, statistically both in personnel capacity and downscaled technology development. Its core climate mission (applied research, projections extension, and education focused to analyze on climate-environment the future frequency of heavy interactions), identified by the rainfall and severe drought events UNC Board of Governors in 1998, in the south-central US. Other laid out a roadmap that has studies she has completed include contributed to the development a climatology of prescribed burn and success of the Center over the days in the south-central US and a past 20 years. SCONC continues to visual drought scale. She is have substantial growth potential currently working on products for as climate science evolves and the Fire Weather Intelligence end-user requests increase in Portal and assessing wet bulb complexity. globe temperature in relation to Future efforts of the SCONC heat-related illness. include ongoing service as the Joseph Taylor is an Instrument resource for weather and climate Technician who rejoined SCONC information for the citizens of during the last year. He previously 9
Providingclimate servicesthrough direct contact, online databasesand analysistools, environmental monitoring, and routine climate summariesis part of SCONC?score mission of extension. SCONC partnersclosely with scientistsin agriculture, natural resources, public health, water resource management, and other sectorsto develop and deliver custom productsand tailored climate services. SCONC also supportsregional climate services acrossthe southeast in partnership with the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center and USDA Southeast Regional Climate Hub. Climate Extension Contents Services H igh ligh t s ............................................................................................. 11 Clim at e an d In f o r m at io n Ser v ices .............................................. 12 Clim at e D at a A ccess an d M an agem en t ................................... 15 N C Clim at e an d O b ser v in g N et w o r k (EC O N et ) ................... 17 Clim at e Su p p o r t f o r A gr icu lt u r e ................................................. 19 Clim at e Su p p o r t f o r To o ls an d D ecisio n A p p licat io n s ......... 23 Clim at e Su p p o r t f o r W at er Reso u r ces ...................................... 26 N O A A So u t h east Regio n al C lim at e C en t er ........................... 27 Clim at e Su p p o r t f o r C o o p er at iv e Ex t en sio n .......................... 30 10
CLIMATE SERVICE HIGHLIGHTS 1.2 million web visits 19% increase in direct requests for services 5.0 million data queries via CRONOS website 2.9 million API queries to climate database 6 t erabyt es of internal database transfers Over 2.2 billion climate data records selected, updated, or inserted each month 21,464 vehicle miles that supported 179 visit s to ECONet weather stations 99.54% of ECONet dat a passed automated and manual quality control 11
Climat e and Informat ion Services CLIMATE SERVICES users to ensure responsive and new website design that reliable climate information consolidated and streamlined SCONC provides many climate services. The SCONC website is many products and services, services to clients and partners. often the first point of contact with making them easier to access and Climate services is a broad clients who need climate more intuitive to use. The overall concept, but fundamentally information. Effort continues to bounce rate, or percentage of involves interaction between a focus on developing web products visitors who leave a site after client or stakeholder who needs and tools based on weather and visiting only one page, decreased climate information and SCONC climate data to provide dynamic by 3.77%. Of the total number of scientists who are experts in products and services. visits, 957,228 (88.6%) were from climate data and climate science. new visitors, a decrease from Many users are not sure what data WEB SERVICES USAGE 1,412,498 in the previous year. or information is best for their Last year, the SCONC website Despite this one-year dip in the needs, and often need guidance on received 1,210,849 visits (graphic number of visitors, overall web how to properly use and interpret below), a decrease of nearly 30% traffic has increased by 591.5% climate information. SCONC staff over the previous year (1,726,994). since 2008-09. and students interact directly with This decrease resulted from the Pictured left are Google Analyticsfor the SCONC'swebsite visitsover the report period. 12
MOST VISITS ON A - 17% for Mount Mitchell (e.g., bookmarks, direct SINGLE DAY ECONet (MITC) (1.3% of all URL) page views) - 0.5% of website visits came 13,563 on October 24, 2017. The - 5.5% for Grandfather Mtn. from social media SCONC's K-12 Education page on ECONet (GRANDFATHR) - 4.2% of website visits came Climate Change Causes had 59.9% - 3.0% for Lake Wheeler from non-search engine of daily traffic on this day (8,118 ECONet (LAKE) referring sites such as news visits) - 2.4% for Bald Head Island ECONet (BALD) articles STATION MOBILE - 1.6% for Sassafras Mountain VISITS BY LOCATION WEBSITE ECONet (SASS) - 1.4% for Bear Wallow Where are website visitorsfrom? At each of our ECONet stations, a Mountain ECONet (BEAR) US State Visits (58.3%) sign is posted with a QR code and - 1.3% for Goldsboro website address that link to a page - 23.4% of all visits came showing the station?s current ECONet (GOLD) from North Carolina weather data. This page is designed for mobile devices so users visiting (165,022) our stations can view the latest - Among other states, the conditions on their smartphones. most visits were from CA Airport weather stations are also (9.5%), TX (5.4%), FL (5.2%), included on the mobile site, NY (4.9%), GA (3.6%), and allowing users to also view recent conditions at these locations. The VA (3.1%) Station Mobile Websites received - 19 states had 10,000+ 7,183 total page views for the visits period; the most frequent visits by - 1,000+ visits from every station are: state but WY - 19.6% for Sassafras Global Visits (41.7%) Mountain (SASS) - 18.2% for Frying Pan - Most visits were from India Mountain (FRYI) (10.9%), Philippines (4.3%), - 14.8% for Mount Jefferson UK (4.1%), Canada (3.9%), JEFF) and Australia (2.7%) - 5.8% for Bahama (BAHA) - Overall, 1,000+ visits from - 5.7% for Clayton (CLAY) 53 countries and 100+ visits from 136 countries CONTENT HIGHLIGHTS What were visitorslookingat? WEB TRAFFIC SUMMARY 60% of all page views on the How are visitorsgettingto the SCONC SCONC website were K-12 website? Education Content,followed by - 79.9% of website visits 12.3% for Aspects of NC Climate. came from a search engine 7.7% of all page views were data (e.g., Google) requests. Data requests visits by - 15.3% of website visits station (7.4% of all page views) came from direct sources 13
USMap depictingthe states from which clientshave requested data in the past year. The majority of data requests came from clientsin North Carolina. LOCATIONS OF CLIENTS REQUESTING DATA Most clients requesting data were from North Carolina (78.9%) while 12.1% of clients did not specify their location when submitting a request. The remaining requests were put in by clients from 16 other states averaging 1 to 4 requests each. The previous year had roughly the same distribution in client locations. DATA REQUESTS FOR SERVICES The past year saw a 19% increase in direct requests from clients via email and phone, as well as a 10% increase in time spent directly responding to requests for services from clients compared to the previous year. As with most years, a large percentage of time was devoted to supporting educational requests (68%), while remaining effort went largely to support government (15%) and private industry (11%). Formal personal interest requests accounted for 6% of effort. A detailed breakdown of request-driven climate services is provided in Appendix A. DATA REQUEST FORM STATISTICS The data request form retrieved 1,404 unique sessions (or page views, pictured in the time series below) from May 1, 2017 through April 30, 2018. The average user spent roughly 2 minutes and 7 seconds on the page, while the page itself had a bounce rate of 48.5%, which suggests just over 50% of the users who visit the page fill out the request form. These numbers were slightly higher than for the previous year, in which fewer data requests were submitted overall. The graph above showsdaily submissionsto the data request form over the annual reportingperiod. A weekly signal is evident, with few to no request submitted over the weekends. 14
Climat e Dat a Access and Management WEATHER DATA VISUALIZATION An updated mapping interface has been developed as part of the new website. This tool provides a large full-screen map with updated graphics and navigation abilities. Weather parameters from multiple networks measuring hourly and daily data are available through this mapping interface, and both past and current conditions can be Hourly air temperaturesare displayed from multiple networksacrossNC and displayed. In addition to surroundingregions. Additional weather parametersand layscan be selected from point-based observations, overlays the menuson the left. of radar, satellite imagery, and mobile site allowing users to also types, and formula calculations. watches and warnings are view recent conditions at these For the client side, a query builder available through a variety of locations. interface is being developed to geospatial layers. allow API clients easier access to In addition, a new Application data streams. DATA ACCESS Program Interface (API) is in beta As part of SCONC?s new website testing, adding many important The API incorporates parameter launch, data accessibility for and user-requested features such metadata such as units, sensor mobile devices has been improved. as data aggregation, variable information, and date of first Nearly 40% of all web site traffic calculation, and unit conversion to observation of each variable at a now comes from moble devices. the existing API?s functionality. given station. This information will This is a substantial increase from This new API will enhance data allow the API to generate a best less than 15% five years ago. Most accessibility for advanced users estimate where data is unavailable tools and website content were and automated applications. or missing based on other converted to a responsive layout to Future features planned for the observed parameters or using accommodate screens of various API include a nearest station gridded data such as analyses or sizes, allowing these resources to lookup and an option for forecasts as a surrogate. The API is be functional on smartphones and "best-estimate" data. being written to use a variety of tablets. The Station Mobile universal output formats, such as API work over the past year Website is also a mobile-friendly JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) improved both the server-side and way for visitors at ECONet and comma separated values client-side usability. On the server stations to directly retrieve the (CSV), which will allow the output side, the focus has been on latest weather conditions at a to be easily incorporated into updating and adding new data given station. Airport weather various programming languages sources and linking variables to stations are also included on the such as PHP, Python and Perl. different data tables, network 15
DATA USAGE Users submitted 5.0 million data queries through the CRONOS website interface ? an increase of 47% compared to last year. More than 2.9 million additional queries were requested through the web services API. Along with those point data retrieval options, SCONC provides access to 85 terabytes of gridded data to partners and end users. Network and data support for CRONOS users has shown a significant increase in the amount of internal data ingest, management, and transfer. Each SCONC database averages more than 6 terabytes of internal climate data transferred each month with about 2.2 billion data records selected, updated, or inserted each month. DATA MANAGEMENT New database modernization efforts are ongoing. New storage engines have been deployed on SCONC?s back-end database infrastructure. These upgrades will allow for improved transaction monitoring as well as faster backup and recovery protocols. As demand for large gridded datasets continue to increase, SCONC is working to seamlessly integrate multiple workflows and enhance data accessibility. Changesover Past Year: Performance Statisticsover Past Year: - Continued migration into a virtualized services - Web Services Uptime - 99.962% environment - Average Database (DB) Availability Uptime - Added additional off-site systems for (across all DB servers) - 99.922% redundancy and backup - Primary Database Availability Uptime - 99.98% - Added more versatile iSCSI storage - Storage Uptime - 99.968% - Computational Uptime - 99.973% Computing Environment Statistics over Past Year: - Total Processing Core - 413 Cores - Total Memory Available - 1.87 TB - Total Storage Allotment - 257.28 TB - Average Daily Write Network Throughout - 7.02 TB Schematic of SCONC Computing Infrastructure. 16
NC Environment and Climat e Observing Net work (ECONet ) The SCONC operatesand maintainsan extensive monitoringnetwork, the Environment and Climate ObservingNetwork (ECONet) that provideshigh-quality, real-time observationsthat support state, local, and federal agencies. Base fundingfor the ECONet isprovided by the NC Agricultural Research Service, which supportsthe maintenance of sensorsat agriculture research stations. Additional support isprovided by the National Mesonet Program and individual local partners. The ECONet usesresearch-grade sensorsto deliver unique, comprehensive observations, such assolar radiation, soil temperature, and soil moisture, to sectorsthat are sensitive to weather and climate information . STATION MAINTENANCE Even wildlife can't get enough of our Each station was visited multiple weather towers! times for routine maintenance over Two tree frogswere the past year. These visits help found hangingout keep the stations operating by our solar efficiently and providing high radiation sensors duringone routine quality data. In total, 158 sit e visit s maintenance visit to were made to perform routine or our Goldsboro, NC, emergency maintenance covering station. 21,464 vehicle miles ? a 12% serviced and 5 soil moisture College of decrease in sit e visit s and a 15% sensors replaced Agriculture and Life Sciences. This decrease in vehicle miles from the - 23 integrated probes station was the first in our network previous year. Proactive station (measuring wind, to have a black globe thermometer maintenance has helped optimize temperature, humidity, installed to better understand heat network operations, increase pressure, and precipitation) stress among humans and efficiency, and reduce maintenance serviced and 5 probes livestock. costs. Sensor maintenance replaced activities of the past year included: - 3 data loggers replaced and - 44 wind monitors serviced re-calibrated and 4 wind monitors - 10 temperature/relative replaced humidity sensors serviced - 31 all-season precipitation and 11 sensors replaced gauge sensors serviced and - 6 black globe 11 sensors replaced thermometers installed - 54 radiation sensors serviced for calibration NEW STATION INSTALL - 19 leaf wetness sensors On February 1, 2018, the 41st serviced and 28 leaf station in our network was wetness sensors replaced installed and activated in Bahama, - 29 soil temperature NC, at the Butner Beef Cattle sensors serviced and 5 soil Laboratory. This station is temperature sensors sponsored by the NC Agriculture installed or replaced Staff workingon installation at SCONC's Research Service and the NC State Bahama, NC, station. - 13 soil moisture sensors 17
NEW SENSOR national gateway for dissemination QUALITY ASSURANCE & DEPLOYMENT to operational and research groups. QUALITY CONTROL In addition, monthly reports Over the course of the reporting QAQC routines are run twice per summarizing the network?s year, two new sensors were hour and help scientists spot availability are provided to MADIS. installed at a few locations to help erroneous values and failing As a courtesy, alerts were sent to monitor temperature. Black globe sensors across the ECONet. Over MADIS if data became unavailable thermometers have been installed the past year, ECONet data passed for an extended period. at six of our ECONet stations to automated and manual quality help calculate Wet Bulb Globe As part of the National Mesonet control routines 99.5% of t he t ime, Temperature (WBGT), which can Program, all ECONet stations have while only 0.2% of all dat a failed all quantify heat stress. For the been upgraded to transmit data to QC checks. 2018/19 reporting year, SCONC the State Climate Office every five Most of the QC checks were minutes. The data are then relayed plans to install more of these enhanced this year to account for to our partners at MADIS. Over the thermometers throughout the new sensor deployments. Ongoing past year, ECONet data availability network. QC development is focusing on (defined as observations being The second new sensor is an inter-sensor comparisons ? received within one hour of the infrared thermometer used to especially between soil original observation time) is 97.9%, monitor skin temperature, or the temperature probes and which is an increase of 1.7% from temperature at the ground surface. temperature/humidity probes. A the previous year. This sensor was tested at our Lake new inter-sensor comparison was Wheeler Road site during winter implemented this year that models 2018 to monitor ground soil temperatures at multiple temperatures during wintry depths and compares those values weather events. While this sensor with observations. Inter-sensor is still considered experimental, it tests are currently being developed could be deployed at more stations for our co-located next winter to better monitor temperature/humidity sensors and ground temperatures. wind speed sensors. Undergraduate students continue to assist scientists with the daily examination of ECONet data using the QC interface. This manual QAQC has led to improved data quality and earlier detection of sensor failures. NATIONAL MESONET PROGRAM As part of the National Mesonet Program, ECONet observational Thisblack globe thermometer was data files are sent to the NOAA Snow lingerson the ground at the installed at the Rocky Mount ECONet Meteorological Assimilation Data Wallace, NC, ECONet tower. tower on March 3, 2018. Ingest System (MADIS), which is a 18
Analysis from past years suggests alerts sent to 406 unique phone these advisories can save 2-3 numbers or email addresses. fungicide applications per year, During the year, 47 new alert sites with a value to growers of at least were added to bring the total $1 t o 3 million per year. number of active sites to 428 as of Climat e CUCURBIT DOWNY May 15, 2018. Support for MILDEW FORECASTS LATE BLIGHT FOR POTATOES AND Agricult ure In an ongoing collaboration with NCSU Plant Pathology, SCONC TOMATOES In collaboration with Dr. Jean provides operational, national Ristaino (NCSU Plant Pathology), Integrated Pest Management SCONC continues to provide (IPM) forecasts for downy mildew technology support and website affecting cucurbits (cucumbers, administration for monitoring and melons, squash, etc). PEANUT DISEASE alerts of late blight affecting tomatoes and potatoes. This year, ADVISORIES the group worked with This is the 14th year of SCONC?s Christopher Parker in the NCSU partnership with Dr. Barbara Shew Masters of Geospatial Information (NCSU Plant Pathology) to provide Science and Technology (MGIST) routine advisories for two peanut program?s Capstone Experience to foliar diseases: peanut leaf spot develop an interactive story map and peanut sclerotinia. that highlights seven years of From June through September, confirmed alerts across the daily email alerts are sent for country. review by Dr. Shew, who then Over the past year, there were 76 passes along guidance to her confirmed reports of late blight, constituents across eastern NC which is an increase from 52 and southeastern VA. during the previous year. These reports triggered 7,749 alerts sent out to 370 unique phone numbers This includes providing weather or email addresses. In addition, 35 information, technology support, new alert sites were added for a and dispersion forecast guidance. total of 498 active sites as of May SCONC continues to work with 15, 2018. partners in NCSU Plant Pathology to maintain the website and forecasting tools. There were 220 confirmed reports of Cucurbit Downy Mildew (CDM) this year, an increase from 163 reports during the previous year. Example map output showinglocations with elevated risk for Cucurbit Downy These reports triggered 23,512 Mildew outbreaks. 19
THRIPS EXPOSURE FARM WATER NEEDS TOOL been developed to help users GUIDANCE FOR COTTON understand what the tool is, how it In a collaboration with Dr. Garry works, and how to interpret the GROWERS Grabow in the NCSU Department output. In collaboration with Dr. George of Biological and Agricultural Kennedy and Thomas Chappell in Engineering, the Farm Water the NCSU Entomology Needs Tool is a planning resource Department, SCONC has to determine how much water developed a Cotton Thrips from irrigation is needed to satisfy Infestation Predictor tool for use crop water demand in addition to by cotton growers and extension rainfall. The tool has been designed agents in North Carolina and the to provide estimates of required southeast US. farm pond storage and monthly estimates of rainfall, runoff, and Gridded temperature estimates crop demand for users in North from the Parameter?Elevation Carolina. Several different gridded PINEMAP Regressions on Independent Pine Integrated Network: Education, meteorological datasets were Slopes Model (PRISM) were used Mitigation, and Adaptation Project evaluated against raw in conjunction with thrips dispersal observations to determine which The USDA-funded PINEMAP models developed by project inputs were most accurate for project ended in February 2017 partners to develop risk estimates North Carolina and should be used after six years of effort from a for cotton growers. A series of in the tool. team of more than 40 primary dynamic infographics were developed to convey these risk investigators at 13 institutions estimates to users, with the ability across the southeast US, including to save searches and download NC State University and the content. SCONC. PINEMAP researchers studied Loblolly pine genetics, This website went live on April 1, management, and climate 2017, was used throughout the sensitivities, among other topics. spring 2017 planting season, and SCONC provided the climate received minor updates in winter science expertise and developed 2018. The tool has been positively Once a user has provided their the project?s key deliverable, the received by growers across the input data, such as location, crop, PINEMAP Decision Support southeast US and has been shared and planting date, the tool System (DSS, extensively through the NC provides the user with an http://www.pinemapdss.org), Cooperative Extension Cotton estimated farm pond storage which highlights future portal. capacity or a notice that the crop climate-based risks and water demand cannot be met from opportunities for foresters. rainfall and irrigation in a typical Since the end of the project, the year. In addition, users are USDA Southeast Regional Climate provided several graphs that show Hub (SERCH) has provided support average rainfall and runoff as well for the exploration and creation of as how runoff and crop demand new tools in the PINEMAP DSS. In progresses throughout the year. March 2018, a webinar was Several instructional videos have conducted by SCONC and SERCH 20
for Cooperative Extension agents Sciences Geoscience Education collaborations or proposal and southern foresters. This and Geocognition Laboratory, four discussions including the following included a brief demonstration of publications related to the topics: 1) a climate-based risk the DSS and a productive feedback PINEMAP DSS are in preparation assessment of non-native fish session that highlighted several for the following peer-reviewed populations in Florida and the key information needs, including journals: Weather, Climate, and broader southeast US, 2) potential guidance on fire risk and pest risk. Society (two of the four), the shifts in the lightning-ignited fire Work on creating such grids based Bulletin of the American season in the southeast US, 3) a on future climate projections and Meteorological Society, and the study on the relationship between historical climate data is ongoing, Journal of Usability Studies. climate and the production with a tool showing the average dynamics of Brazil nut trees, 4) a Over the past year, engagement number of dry days in the spring climate-based decision support has continued with PINEMAP fire season expected to be system for New Zealand, and 5) a project partners as well as external completed and integrated into the climate-based decision support project partners via presentations DSS in summer 2018. system for a target audience of and requests for weather and wildlife and fisheries. In collaboration with NCSU?s climate data. In addition, Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric PINEMAP has led to several Image: The_Gut, under CC2.0 license. Support for USDA 1. Information Development and ENVIRONMENTAL Applied Support for Extension: MODELING Southeast Regional Climate Hub Three applied climate documents SCONC continues to produce were completed for forestry routine experimental numerical Through a cooperative agreement extension agents as well as forest weather and dispersion forecast with USDA, SCONC is providing and land managers: guidance. These forecasts are technical, scientific, and extension distributed to multiple agencies, expertise for the Southeast - A white paper on including the National Weather Regional Climate Hub (SERCH). ?Southeast Drought Service. Model output is included SERCH is focused on the extension Impacts and Forest in SCONC?s Fire Weather Portal of climate science to support needs Management?, and provides inputs to a series of and informed decision making on - A factsheet for USDA agricultural products. Additionally, working lands in the southeast US, Forest Service Region 8 on SCONC provides numerical including forests, rangelands, and ?Drought Impacts in the guidance for cucurbit disease croplands. Southern Region?, and forecasts and efforts with smoke - A paper on system drivers Last year, SCONC provided management. and stressors for the East scientific and technical support to Texas National Forests and complete three primary tasks Grassland Assessment. described in this section. 21
In addition, a review was effects on forest ecosystems, 3. Fire Weather Email Alerts: performed on Chapter 3 of the agriculture, rangelands, and SERCH is developing email alerts Global Forest Expert Panels livestock with an emphasis on that notify subscribers about (GFEP) assessment on Forests and options for adapting management wildfire risk and prescribed Water, which highlights drivers strategies and planning processes. burning suitability. The alerts are and their pressures. Lastly, a With a target audience of land calculated using the Keetch-Byram webinar on ?Climate managers, foresters, extension Drought Index (KBDI) and are Considerations When Developing agents, and farmers, TACCIMO being developed in coordination Updated Seed Zones?was allows users to search, sort, and with SCONC?s Fire Weather presented in April 2017 as part of filter text quotations and figures Intelligence Portal. Early user the Eastern Seed Zone Forum's that are related to their areas of engagement with the Southern online lecture and discussion interest. To remain relevant and Regional Forestry Extension group hours. effectively inform land managers was conducted to inform the of the potential impacts of climate 2. Template for Assessing Climate subscription parameters. Technical change on their natural resources, Change Impactsand Management development is wrapping up and the literature database that drives Options(TACCIMO): user testing and rollout are TACCIMO is being updated with expected in the near future. TACCIMO is a web-based tool findings from the most recent containing peer-reviewed peer-reviewed research. literature on climate change 22
Climat e Support for Tools and Decision Applicat ions DROUGHT MONITORING & RESPONSE SCONC is a member of the NC Drought Management Advisory Council (NC DMAC), participating in weekly drought monitoring conference calls and providing public presentations on drought in North Carolina. During the weekly calls, SCONC provides information on recent precipitation placed in a historical context, the current level of dryness as indicated by drought indices generated by SCONC, and on-the-ground information provided by citizen scientists as part of the CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring program. SCONC has facilitated easier decision making among the NC DMAC by developing the capacity to draw drought category boundaries on web-based map displays, which is frequently used to communicate the council?s consensus to US Drought Monitor authors. Through monthly climate summaries and blog posts, interviews for print and broadcast news media, and presentations to community and SCONC scientistsparticipated in the NC DMAC'sannual 2018 in-person meeting. professional groups, SCONC provides frequent updates on drought conditions and impacts, information about the climate drivers of drought, and the NC DMAC monitoring process. HIGH-RESOLUTION DROUGHT INDICES SCONC continues to generate and publicly provide several drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI), and percent of normal precipitation. These indices are updated daily using high-resolution data from the National Weather Service and the PRISM Climate Group. During the past year, SCONC continued to serve these indices through tools on its websites geared for monitoring drought and surface water conditions, as well as provide grids and supplemental information to researchers from academia, state, and federal government. Grids are used in weekly drought assessments in North Carolina as part of the NC Drought Management Gridded drought index (SPEI )indicatingdry conditionsin the Advisory Council?s activities and across the US as southwestern piedmont of NC duringSpringof 2016. input into the US Drought Monitor. A manuscript describing the SPEI?s calculation and evaluation for monitoring agricultural and hydrological drought is in 23
FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE PORTAL In addition, a SCONC undergraduate student has explored various methods of estimating solar In 2017, the Fire Weather Intelligence Portal ? a radiation from the cloud cover observations available real-time monitoring tool initially developed for the at airport-based weather stations due to upcoming NC Forest Service beginning in 2011 ? was expanded changes to the National Fire Danger Rating System. for states and users all across the southeast US with These changes will require the availability of funding from the USDA Southeast Regional Climate station-based solar radiation data to calculate fire risk Hub. Data from 13 states from Virginia through Texas parameters. Comparisons between modeled and is now available in the Portal, and the tool received a observed solar radiation values at nearby stations in back-end update to make data load more quickly and North Carolina have highlighted the strengths and to look and function more smoothly on mobile devices. limitations of the existing estimation techniques. The launch of the expanded Portal was announced via Further comparisons have been performed for Florida a First Friday All Climate Change Talks webinar, a and Oklahoma in order to evaluate these estimates in presentation and demonstration at the Association for the broader southeast US region. Fire Ecology?s International Fire Ecology and In an effort to provide better region-wide forecast guidance, SCONC has also been generating several gridded smoke and fire products based on the office?s WRF model: - Burning Category is based on ventilation rates, and many southeastern states use this index for prescribed burning guidance, with values of 1 indicating conditions are unsuitable for burning and values of 5, which includes the highest ventilation rates, often more suited for burning. - The Pasquill-Turner stability class uses surface wind speed, solar radiation, and cloud cover to Image credit: NC Forest Service assess atmospheric turbulence and, therefore, Management Congress, and a webinar hosted by the the stability of the atmosphere. This index Southern Fire Exchange and conducted by SCONC includes seven categories ranging from and the Montgomery Community College Prescribed extremely unstable (A) to extremely stable (G). Fire Training Center. - The Lavdas Atmospheric Dispersion Index, based on mixing height and the Pasquill-Turner As users across the region explored the Portal, it stability class, assesses burning conditions received an 28% increase in page views, from 33,802 based on how well the atmosphere will last year to 43,183 this year. In the past year, this tool transport smoke and particles. The index received a total of 6,875 unique visitors ? a 14% ranges from 0 to 100, where midrange values increase from the previous year. indicate good smoke dispersion and the ability The NC Forest Service and SERCH have provided to control fires. ongoing support for additional development and - LVORI estimates the likelihood of low visibility engagement with the Fire Weather Intelligence Portal. due to smoke and is based on relative humidity This has included the addition of new datasets such as and the atmospheric dispersion index. For this US Drought Monitor boundaries and the DENSCA index, the number 1 represents the lowest Index that can help inform fire monitoring and likelihood of low visibility while a 10 is the management decisions. highest category. 24
These gridded products will soon be tested and added to the Fire Weather Intelligence Portal to provide more useful tools to the southeastern fire community. Calculated DENSCA Index ? a parameter that combinesseveral existingweather and fire danger indicesto provide a single-number estimate of fire risk ? for the southeast US. PRECIPITATION MONITORING AND ALERTS The NC Department of Transportation (NCDOT) continues to support SCONC to provide radar-based precipitation alerts and monitoring tools for storm water management. During the year, users created 669 individual alert sites and 533 projects for monitoring rainfall. Overall, there are 2,659 active alert sites for 1,901 projects as of May 15th, 2018. The NCDOT user-base continues to grow as demands for services increase. Over the past year, 185 new NCDOT user accounts were created, compared to 166 requests for new accounts in the previous year. Gridded precipitation acrossNorth Carolina, Heavier amountsin the western piedmont and alongthe coast are indicated by warm colors, 25
UNIFIED WATER DATA PROJECT SCONC scientists are working with the NC Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) Division of Water Resources (DWR) to unify data from several Climat e disparate DEQ datasets that are used to measure and determine the water quality across North Carolina. These data will be combined with Support for SCONC-housed water quantity and weather data in a web-based application programming interface (API) service. This API will give DEQ/DWR staff and Wat er stakeholders greater accessibility to weather and water data (both quantity and quality), helping to meet regulatory, planning, and stakeholder needs. Resources During the second year of the project, six in-person meetings were conducted to learn about various water quality datasets (such as lakes and wetlands data collected by DWR) and how they are used by basin planners and other groups within DEQ and DWR. INTEGRATED WATER PORTAL SCONC continues to provide support for the Integrated Water Portal (IWP). This tool brings together water data from several different agencies into a map-driven data exploration and visualization tool that allows users to quickly explore regional and local water conditions. The IWP incorporates current and historical station-based water and precipitation data with high-resolution gridded products, such as precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service and drought indices produced by SCONC. In 2017-2018, the IWP was migrated to the new SCONC website and updates were made to the back end to increase longevity as well as make the page?s style more consistent with SCONC?s new website. 26
NOAA Sout heast Regional Climat e Cent er UNC-Chapel Hill and NCSU were awarded the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC) in 2007. Aspart of thispartnership, SCONC developsand maintainsthe SERCC?sweb servicesand online climate tools. Additionally, SCONC supportsand maintainsthe Applied Climate Information System (ACIS), which servesasthe climate database for all six NOAA Regional Climate Centers. Collaboratorsat UNC-CH include CharlesKonrad, William Schmitz, Jordan McLeod, and Ashley Ward. relationships between hospital (HHVT). The HHVT displays the SERCC WEB TRAFFIC emergency department (ED) expected number of hospital ED The SERCC website received admissions data and local climate admissions per capita per 100,000 133,588 visits, a decrease of conditions with plans to help per degree day (as a percent 16.8% over the previous year improve early warning for public departure from the baseline) (160,535). The largest number of health officials. Currently, this tool based on the observed and visits in a single day was 1,618 on allows users to search for forecast heat indices, as well as on January 7th, 2018. emergency department records models that were derived from - 93.6% of all visits came based on primary and secondary relationships between past from the United States diagnostics codes, dates and years admissions associated with heat - Top 10 states by visits: FL of interest, and locations. Users illnesses across North Carolina. In (16.3%), NC (14.6%), GA can also pull corresponding daily addition, shaded thresholds give (9.8%), VA (4.6%), SC weather records (temperature, users a general idea of just how (4.4%), TX (4.2%), CA maximum heat index, 18 UTC/1 severe the number of heat-related (3.8%), NY (3.5%), AL pm EDT heat index, wind chill, hospital admissions is expected to (2.6%), and PA (2.5%) precipitation, and antecedent be based on those heat indices. weather periods), and generate Website visits by source: While the previous year?s efforts ?reference periods?for ED focused on embedding the HHVT - 71.8%: Search engines admissions to help determine within the Convergence of (e.g., Google) when excess morbidity rates Climate-Health Vulnerabilities - 18.9%: Direct sources (e.g., occur. After initial data retrieval, website bookmarks, direct URL) the results can be aggregated over (http://convergence.unc.edu), - 7.7%: Non-search engine different temporal and spatial efforts over this past year have referral sites (e.g., articles) scales, and narrowed down by moved toward the development of - 1.5%: Social Media demographics, from which an Early Warning System (EWS). summary tables with basic counts This EWS will ultimately utilize the CLIMATE AND PUBLIC and per capita rates can be underlying HHVT models to send HEALTH generated. alerts via text message or email Effort over the past year focused Research stemming from the when the heat index is forecast to on general maintenance of the Climate-Health Toolkit eventually reach or exceed a user?s specified Climate-Health Toolkit, which led to the development of the vulnerability level. allows researchers to explore the Heat-Health Vulnerability Tool 27
In addition to the HHVT, a new black globe thermometer or risk categories will be shown on tool is being developed for recent calculated with climate data. For the time series. Furthermore, the and forecasted wet bulb globe this publicly accessible tool, tool will display the WBGT in the temperature (WBGT). WBGT is gridded data was used to calculate sun and shade. another measure of heat stress on hourly WBGT across North The next steps of this tool include the human body that is based on Carolina for three days into the an expansion to the southeast US natural wet bulb temperature past and future using methodology and a spatial component in which (evaporative potential), ambient air from the NWS in Tulsa, OK. The maps of WBGT across the (dry bulb temperature), and black prototype of this tool will include southeast will be available to view. globe temperature (radiant heat). an hourly time series of WBGT for In addition, the WBGT values will Unlike heat index, which only uses a user-defined location (latitude be validated with black globe temperature and relative humidity and longitude). With this thermometer measurements from to assess conditions in the shade, information, anyone can identify ECONet sites across North WBGT takes temperature, relative their potential for heat stress Carolina in order to assess the humidity, wind speed, and solar when preparing for outdoor validity of the gridded WBGT radiation into account in order to activities. Similar to the HHVT, computations. assess how the outdoor conditions shaded thresholds of the WBGT in direct sunlight will affect the human body. WBGT is directly applicable to numerous situations and populations, such as outdoor sporting events, yard work, those with outdoor jobs, and military personnel. This value can be measured with a The Heat-Health Vulnerability Tool is accessible from the Convergence website: convergence.unc.edu. 28
CLIMATE Weather Channel use Climate that location?s 30-year normal Perspectives for communicating temperature throughout the PERSPECTIVES recent weather to a public entire year. The Climate Perspectives tool audience. Additionally, state accounts for 10.5% of all web offices such as SCONC often cite traffic on the SERCC website., the Climate Perspectives tool in including nearly 62% of traffic on monthly or seasonal climate the most visited day. Weekly US summaries such as those in the Drought Monitor authors and Climate Blog. contributors from across the country routinely use Climate Over the past year, a new feature Perspectives in drought was developed called ?Similar Day assessments. Nationally, local of Year?. This gives the user a National Weather Service offices seasonal perspective for a given and other groups such as the location, comparing the recent Capital Weather Gang and The temperatures of a given period to Screen capture showingClimate Perspective'sSimilar Day of Year (DOY) feature. 29
website design in which current posts and CES news articles. observations were placed on the In January 2017, SCONC was homepage and links to data invited by NCCES to participate retrieval resources were in the Bertie County Partnership Climate displayed more prominently. Discussion in Greenville, NC. This Support for Only about one-third of respondents said they had meeting brought together scientists from NCSU and East Cooperative received any weather and Carolina University, extension Extension climate training, so they requested instruction on basic agents from NCCES and USDA, and participants from the Town topics such as soil moisture and of Windsor to discuss recurring monitoring. Short videos were flooding in the town since generally preferred as a Hurricane Floyd in 1999. SCONC communication medium, so provided background on these SCONC produced three videos heavy rain events and historical EXTENSION ADVISORY about Soil Physical frequency, and a key action item COMMITTEE Characteristics, Soil Moisture in that emerged was creating a SCONC established a formal North Carolina, and and Soil more dense network of collaboration with the North Moisture Measurements and precipitation observations in Carolina Cooperative Extension Monitoring. These videos were Bertie County. This led SCONC to Service (NCCES) over the past shared with the NCCES advisory connect NCCES with the RAIN two years. As part of this committee to receive feedback Across the River program, engagement effort, an advisory and will be finalized, published, funded by the Burroughs committee was established to and shared publicly and with Wellcome Fund, to recruit help steer interactions and extension agents in 2018. student CoCoRaHS observers in priorities between SCONC and the county. NCCES. In spring 2017, a ONGOING AND NEW SCONC also continued to engage web-based survey was filled out PARTNERSHIPS with NCSU researchers and by 137 extension agents. This In 2017-18, SCONC continued to extension faculty on projects served as a needs assessment provide several ongoing services with implications for NCCES and that identified two key priorities: as part of engagement activities growers across the state. These with NCCES: include providing weather inputs While roughly half of An RSS feed of recent posts from and an online framework for respondents indicated that they had used the SCONC website, NCSCO?s Climate Blog was peanut disease advisories, which many suggested that it was developed in April 2014 and have been offered for the past difficult to locate weather data continues to be shared on 14 years. SCONC has also NCCES?s Extension Integrated partnered with Dr. Gina and tools on the site. This feedback informed key layout Pest Management website Fernandez (NCSU Horticulture) changes to the new NCSCO alongside other external blog on projects to explore improved 30
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