SRI LANKA 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014 - Nielsen

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SRI LANKA 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014 - Nielsen
SRI L ANKA
                                       2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                           1
SRI LANKA 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014 - Nielsen
SRI L ANKA
                                    2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
                                    2013 was a period of consolidation in Sri Lanka, marked by ripples from
                                    a series of corrective measures in 2012 aimed to chill an overheated
                                    economy. The indicators are that the worst could be over. As 2013 came
                                    to a close, inflation was heading south and the Sri Lankan rupee was
                                    relatively stable, leaving consumers and businesses wondering if 2014
                                    will be the year when confidence begins to ascend—leading to a bounce-
                                    back in consumption.

                                    As a country, Sri Lanka boasts an impressive per-capita GDP—one that’s
                                    bigger than India’s and steadily approaching Indonesia’s. Given the
                                    country’s economic footprint, marketers and brands certainly have an
                                    opportunity to increase their engagement with consumers—engagement
                                    that hinges on understanding their needs and spending habits.

                                                   2013 PER CAPITA GDP (US$)

                                                                                           INDIA                    THAILAND

                                                                                           SRI LANKA                INDONESIA

                           1,414

                                                               5,878

                                       3,127
                                                                                         3,498

    Source: International Monetary Fund.

2                                                                                    SRI LANKA: 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
CONFIDENCE
                                        RISING
                                        On the heels of several landmark events over the past five years, including
                                        President Mahinda Rajapaksa winning a second, six-year term in 2010,
                                        sentiment about the future is improving among Sri Lankan consumers
                                        and businesses. Both consumer and business confidence are up
                                        significantly from their low points, even though there was some vacillation
                                        toward the end of 2013. At year-end, consumer confidence was at 68 (up
                                        from a recent low of 57 in August 2012) and business confidence was at
                                        130 (up from a recent low of 90 in July 2012).

                                            CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

                                                  NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX AND
                                                   LMD-NIELSEN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX

                                                                               CCI        BCI
            173

      160         162
                              158                                                                      158
                        153                 154
                                    149 151                                                                        147
                                                                                                 139         140         140                                          138
                                                  135                                  135 134
                                                                                                                               131                 129          130         130
                                                                                                                                      125
                                                                             121 122                                                                     119
                                                                       108                                                                  111
                                                        105 107

                                                                  90
                          85 87       85
  77     77         77                     77
              73                                72
                                                     65                                            67 68 64                                                         67   68
                                                                                                                                     63 65
                                                          60 58 59       57 59       59 60 62                        59    60                     62 59        59
  JU 12

   D 3
   D 2
     D 1

    A 3
    A 2

           '12

           '13
   'A 11

           '12

    JU 3
 JU '12

           '13
     'S 1

     JA 2

 N 13
              2
  'N 11

   M 3
   M 2

           '13
           '13
           '12

  M 3
     JA 1

  M 2

   O 3
   O 2
    'O 11

             3
              1
             1

            '1

           '1
           '1

           '1
           '1
           '1
         T'1

            1
           '1

           '1
            1

            1

            1

            1
         L'1
        EC
         V
        LY

         E'
         G

          T
        EP

         Y'

         T'
         B'

         P'

         B'

         P'
         V
         R

        LY

         V
         G
         Y

         R
       EC

         G

       EC
       PR
        N

       PR

        N
        N
        C

       O

       C

       C
       U

       N

      JU
       A

       A
     SE

       O

     SE
       A

      O
     FE

       A
     FE
       U

       U
'JU

   A

   A
  N

                                                                      BCI Base: 100 per month
                                                  CCI Base: Rolling Sample of 300 per month Respondents per Month

      Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                                                                                                                        3
THE FUTURE LOOKS
                                              BRIGHTER FOR
                                              CONSUMERS
                                              The improving consumer sentiment, business confidence and growing
                                              tourism suggests better times ahead. For consumers, stable rupee
                                              growth, lower inflation than in mid-2013 and mild interest rates for
                                              loans should be a welcome change and could be a positive for spending
                                              trends—amount and frequency—in 2014. The downside risk on the
                                              economic front includes a possible trade balance downturn. A trade
                                              balance slip could affect the value of the rupee and cause the economy
                                              to overheat.

                                                       BETTER TIMES FOR CONSUMERS IN 2014?

                         QUARTERWISE GDP GROWTH (%)                                                                                                                  INFLATION % (12 MONTH AVERAGE)

               GDP GROWTH           AGRICULTURE           INDUSTRIAL          SERVICES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            MAY 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   8.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                DEC 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MAY 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5.6%
      8.3        7.9                                                            7.8
                            6.4                    6.3                  6.8
                                                            6.0
                                      4.8
                                                                                            JAN '2010

                                                                                                        MAR '2010

                                                                                                                    MAY '2010

                                                                                                                                JUL '2010

                                                                                                                                            SEP '2010

                                                                                                                                                        NOV '2010

                                                                                                                                                                    JAN '2011

                                                                                                                                                                                MAR '2011

                                                                                                                                                                                            MAY '2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                        JUL '2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SEP '2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                NOV '2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             JAN '2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MAR '2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     MAY-'2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 JUL -'2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SEP-'2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          NOV-'2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      JAN-'2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  MAR-'2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              MAY-'2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            JUL-'2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         SEP-'2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     NOV-'2013
    Q4-2011    Q1-2012    Q2-2012   Q3-2012     Q4-2102   Q1-2013   Q2-2013   Q3-2013

                           EXCHANGE RATE (LKR:USD)                                                                                  COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGE INTEREST RATES (%)

                                                                                                                                                                                                        AVGE WEIGHTED LENDING RATE
     135                                                                              135                                                                                                               AVGE WEIGHTED DEPOSIT RATE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18

     130                                                                              130
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        16

     125                                                                              125                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12
     120                                                                              120

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10
     115                                                                              115
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8

     110                                                                              110                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6

      JAN/12              JUL/12              JAN/13           JUL/13            JAN/14                        OCT              DEC               FEB APR ;                            JUN AUG OCT                                          DEC            FEB APR ;                             JUN AUG OCT                                              DEC
                                                                                                                '11              '11               '12 12                               '12 '12 '12                                          '12            '13 13                                '13 '13 '13                                              '13

4                                                                                                                                                       SRI LANKA: 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
When we take a look at what’s driving the GDP growth, we                      SOURCES OF GDP GROWTH
 don’t see any surprises. The sources behind the uptick are                    SIMILAR IN ‘12 & ‘13
 similar to those we saw in 2012 and last year. Agriculture is
 still stifled, offering very little in terms of growth, mainly due            2012: Q1-Q3   2013: Q1-Q3
 to poor weather. Consequently, agriculture contributed only                   6.3%          6.9%
 marginally to overall GDP growth in the last two years. The                                  0.3%
                                                                                0.8%
 positive, however, is that in aggregate, agriculture represents
 a very small part of the larger GDP picture. The larger
 contributors, the industrial and services sectors, is where the
                                                                                              2.9%
 picture is more optimistic.
                                                                                2.7%

 HOW ECONOMIC                                                                                 3.7%

 TRENDS COULD
                                                                                2.9%
                                                                                                           AGRICULTURE

                                                                                                           INDUSTRY

 AFFECT CONSUMER                                                                                           SERVICES

 BEHAVIOR
 At a granular level, construction delivered more than half of the GDP
 growth in the last two years, fueled by surges in domestic trade and
 transport—a trend that should continue. On the flipside, import trade has
 contributed very little to the equation.

 For consumers, lower borrowing costs could lead to higher spending on
 housing and consumer durables. Older consumers who are reliant on
 fixed incomes, however, will likely trim back on spending as interest rates   FOOD EXPENDITURES
 on their savings and deposits come down. Inflation had dipped below 7
 percent at the end of 2013, another level of breathing room for consumers,
 but fuel hikes and related increases in electricity and transport costs did          25%    THAILAND
 cause a rise in non-food costs last year.

 Non-food costs aren’t the top concern for Sri Lankans, however.
                                                                                        35% INDIA
 On average, consumers in the region spent about 40 percent of their
 household expenditure on food, well above the average of less than 15
                                                                                 11% AUSTRALIA
 percent for developed countries. Comparatively, food expenditures are 25
 percent in Thailand, 35 percent in India, and 11 percent in Australia.

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                                                                     5
RURAL & ESTATE CONSUMERS > HIGH
                                         FOOD COSTS

                                         % OF HOUSEHOLD
                                         SPEND ON FOOD

                                                                                2013                2010
                                         TOTAL SRI LANKA                            37                    40
                                         URBAN                                       31                   34

                                         RURAL                                      39                    41
                                         ESTATE                                     50                    50

       2010: GLOBAL COMPARISONS
       ON % OF EXPENDITURE ON FOOD

                                                                       9%

                               7%                                                                                        14%
                                                                                                           34%
                                                                                              46%
                                                                                                    35%    25%
                                                                                                                 37%

                                                                                                    40%
                                                                                        45%
                                                 25%                                                       43%

                                                                                                                   11%

    Sources: Sri Lanka; DC&S, Housing Income & Expenditure Survey 2013
    Other Countries: Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture / Euromonitor (2010)

6                                                                                         SRI LANKA: 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
WHEELS, RICE
                                 COOKERS AND
                                 TECHNOLOGY
                                Against a backdrop of relative optimism, there are a few areas where
                                consumers in Sri Lanka could direct their disposable income as futures
                                brighten. The first is transportation. Sri Lanka is home to 5 million
                                households that have 4 million vehicles—and climbing. While sales of
                                car, three-wheeler and dual-purpose vehicles (vans) have tapered off in
                                recent years, motorcycles are becoming the transportation of choice. At
                                year-end 2013, there were 2.7 million motorbikes in the region—steadily
                                making them the family vehicle of choice.

                      OVER 4 MILLION VEHICLES FOR 5 MILLION HOUSEHOLDS

  45,00,000

  40,00,000

  35,00,000                         TOTAL NO. OF
                                    REGISTERED VEHICLES
  30,00,000

  25,00,000

  20,00,000

   15,00,000

  10,00,000

   5,00,000

     UNITS

                   2003         2004        2005    2006      2007      2008       2009      2010         2011   2012   JUL-13

                                          MOTOR CARS       3 WHEELERS           MOTORBIKES           DUAL PURPOSE

 Source: Registration of Motor Vehicles

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                                                                             7
Consumers are also spending more on durables and technology.
    Sri Lankans are no longer content with outdated items, as many are
    opting to replace their old televisions and refrigerators with new,
    efficient models.

    Technology is also playing a bigger role for consumers these days.
    In 2013, Sri Lankan households purchased 250,000 new computers and
    550,000 new rice cookers.

             TV & REFRIGERATORS > UPGRADING TO NEW MODELS COMPUTERS,
                       RICE COOKERS > INCREASING PENETRATION

                                  PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS OWNING SPECIFIED DURABLES

                                                                              TV
                                                                                                               96%
                                                                                                                97%
                                                                              RADIO
                                                                                                           89%
                                                                                                           88%
                                                                              REFRIGERATOR
                                                                                                  57%
                                                            % OF HHS OWNING

                                                                                                  57%
                                                                              COMPUTER
                                                                                      27%
                                                                                       32%
                                                                              RICE COOKER
                                                                                                48%
                                                                                                  59%

                                                                              WASHING MACHINE
                                                                                   13%                                  2012

                                                                                   14%                                  2013

        Source: Nielsen Consumer Surveys, 2012, 2013 in 9 Provinces, 23 (out of 24 districts)

8                                                                                               SRI LANKA: 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
The other area where technology is affecting consumer spending is in
                                the digital space. While fixed and mobile voice connectivity is declining
                                or flat, mobile broadband connectivity is growing. As of September 2013,
                                there were 1.2 million mobile broadband connections in Sri Lanka, and
                                the number of accounts is steadily increasing.

                                And where there’s digital growth, there’s increasing Internet penetration.
                                In Sri Lanka, the availability of technology is having a huge impact
                                on Internet use. Between 2012 and 2013, the country’s population of
                                Internet users, aged 15 to 60 years, grew from 2.5 million to 2.8 million,
                                and 2.4 million of them are connecting either daily or weekly.

                           2.8 M INTERNET USERS (2.4 M DAILY/WEEKLY USERS)

                             FREQUENCY OF INTERNET USAGE (AMONG ALL 15-60 YEAR OLDS)

         2012                                                                                        2013
         2.5M                                                     2.5M
                                                                            2.8M
                                                                                                     2.8M
         INTERNET USERS                                                                              INTERNET USERS
         (22% of 15-60 yr olds)                                                                      (24% of 15-60 yr olds)
         17% Daily / Weekly users;                                                                   21% Daily / Weekly users;
         5% occasional users                                                                         3% occasional users
                                                                   2012 2013

                                 FREQUENCY OF INTERNET USAGE 2013 (% BY AGE GROUP)

           AGE                                                     ALL            15-25     26-35    36-45       46-60

           DAILY/WEEKLY/LESS OFTEN                                  24               47      18       15             7

         HOW INTERNET
         USUALLY ACCESSED                                             52%                   57%                 15%
         SOME USE MULTIPLE                                         DONGLE                   MOBILE              ADSL
         MEANS OF ACCESS

    Source: Nielsen Consumer Surveys, 2012, 2013 in 9 Provinces, 23 (out of 24 districts)

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                                                                             9
CONSUMPTION
     OUTLOOK—A
     REVERSAL OF
     RECENT TRENDS
     Given the various factors affecting businesses and consumers in Sri
     Lanka over the past couple of years, it’s not surprising that fast-moving
     consumer goods (FMCG) volume was down in 2012. That was a year
     ago, however, and that downtrend reversed its course in the last two
     quarters of 2013.

     So where are the biggest areas of opportunity? The personal care and
     emerging lifestyle sectors.

     Despite negative growth in the household care (cleaning products and
     detergents) area, double-digit growth in personal care item sales has
     been an offsetting positive.

10                                                      SRI LANKA: 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
MONTHLY AVERAGE GROWTH

                            FMCG MARKET VALUE (RS. MN.) - MONTHLY TRENDS IN TRADITIONAL TRADE

          15,000
                                                HOUSEHOLD CARE              PERSONAL CARE            F&B

         10,000

               5,000

                0

                    D-10     M-11        J-11   S-11    D-11         M-12    'J-12   S-12         D-12     M-13   J-13     S-13     D-13

                                      QUARTERLY FMCG VALUE GROWTH & SOURCE OF GROWTH
                                           (COMPARED TO SAME QUARTER A YEAR AGO)

                               UNIT VALUE GROWTH (%)                VOLUME GROWTH (%)              NOMINAL GROWTH (%)

                       14           14
                                     4
                       3

                                                                                                           8
                                                                14           15             16                       6
                       11                        10                                                                                 4
                                    10
    % GROWTH

                                                                                                           14
                                                                2                                                    8              7
                                                  1
                                                                             -1                                      -2            -3
                                                                                                           -6
                                                 -9                                         -5
                                                               -12
                                                                             -16
                                                                                            -21

                     Q4 11          Q1 12       Q2 12          Q3 12        Q4 12       Q1 13            Q2 13     Q3 13          Q4 13

     Source: Nielsen Retail Audit (excl. N&E)

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                                                                                       11
From a retail perspective, package size is once again a primary
                                               consideration. When times were tougher, retailers and companies began
                                               offering products in medium-sized packs to provide a price-conscious
                                               option when consumers didn’t have the economic bandwidth to spend
                                               for larger, higher-cost packages. Over the past year, however, consumers
                                               are noticing these options less. From a trend perspective, more and more
                                               consumers are gradually shifting to either larger or smaller sizes—even
                                               when prices for smaller packs are going up.

                                               The fastest-growing categories, even in general trade, are those in the
                                               emerging lifestyle and personal care arena, albeit from a very small base.
                                               The products and services that have seen the highest growth are those that
                                               appeal to younger consumers.

                                               And when it comes to pricing, consumers are very value conscious: the
                                               magic numbers in these categories fall between Rs30 (food and beverage)
                                               and Rs45 (personal care).

                                                           SALES VALUE CONTRIBUTION % - NOV ‘13

                                                                     ALL F&B                F&B EXCL. MILK POWDER

         -9        -19 - 24    -2
                                  9      4
                                       -3 5-3
                                              9     4   9   9   9
                                                  -4 5-4 0-5 0-6 0-7
                                                                     9
                                                                          -8
                                                                             9      9
                                                                                 - 9 - 12
                                                                                          4        49 174           99 224        49 274          99 345        99 499 599 999              00
     0        10                                                                                -1       -       -1     -      -2      -       -2     -      -3      -      -      -     10
                      20    25      30     3   40     4   5   6   7    80      90 100      12
                                                                                              5
                                                                                                    15
                                                                                                       0     7 5      0      5       0     7 5      0      6       0      0      0   > =
                                                                                                           1       20     22      25     2       30     34      40     50     60

                                                                     PERSONAL CARE                        HOUSEHOLD CARE

                                  9           9     4   9   9   9    9       9      9     4        9     4          9    4    9    4         9   5      9    9     9    9
         -9        -19 - 24    -2
                                         4
                                       -3 5-3     -4 5-4 0-5 0-6 0-7      -8     - 9 - 12        14 - 17         19   22   24   27        29   34 - 39 - 49 - 59 - 99          00
                                                                                                                                                                                  0
     0        10      20    25      30     3   40     4   5   6   7    80      90 100         5 - 50        7 5 - 0 - 25 - 50 -       7 5- 0-        6    0     0     0     =1
                                                                                           12      1      1       2 0    2  2       2      30    3 4   40   5 0   6 0     >

12                                                                                                                     SRI LANKA: 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
THE MILLENNIAL
                              OPPORTUNIT Y
                              When we look at demographics across Sri Lanka, as well as other
                              regions of the world, consumers born in the 1980s and 1990s are
                              becoming a steadily important group to engage with. These young
                              adults, born in the reality TV show era, are 3.5 million strong and
                              represent a portion of the consumer base that will become increasingly
                              more influential as they grow older.

                              In addition to being a group with growing spending power, Millennials
                              tend to be more optimistic than the average consumer. In fact,
                              consumer confidence in Sri Lanka is highest in this group. They’re also
                              more likely to spend on themselves when it comes to discretionary
                              purchases.

             GEN Y MORE OPTIMISTIC AND MORE LIKELY TO SPEND ON THEMSELVES

                                       CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, BY AGE GROUP

                                                 25-30        31-35     36-45      46+

             80.5 77.5
                       75.5                                                                 75.5
                                       74                71                                        67.5 65
                                                              65.5 63.5
                                                                        60.5                                   59

                         2011                                    2012                                   2013

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                                                                13
SO WHERE ARE THEY SPENDING?

                   % RESPONSE JAN 2013 – DEC 2013                            25-30              31-35        36-45           46+

                   PUT IT INTO S AVINGS                                        60                 53           42             34

                   BUY NEW CLOTHES/SHOES                                           13             7             2             1

                   RESTAURANTS AND DINING OUT                                  10                 2             1             1

                   PAYING OFF DEBTS/CREDIT CARDS/LOANS                             6              6             4             3

                   LATEST TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS                                      4              2             0             0

                   GROOMING                                                        1              2             1             0

                   HAVE NO SPARE CASH                                              18             39           35            26

     Engaging with Millennials requires different tactics than other
     demographics. They are fun-loving, adventurous and usually want to be
     want step ahead of their peers. So in that regard they’re always on the
     lookout for the brands that are considered the most modern and trendy.
     They also love to tell their peers, friends and families about their latest
     purchases—whether they be clothing or the latest tech gadgets.

     For Millennials, it’s all about lifestyle and convenience, so engaging with
     them needs to keep these two prime motivators at the forefront.

14                                                                                      SRI LANKA: 2013 REVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES IN 2014
A BRIGHTER
                              HORIZON AHEAD?
                              2013 was a year of consolidation. The impact of the corrective measures
                              taken by the government in 2012 to calm the economic environment
                              weighed on consumer spending and prevented any meaningful forward
                              momentum. Now, however, consumers and businesses are cautiously
                              optimistic, particularly as inflation declines and interest rates for loans
                              recede. If these trends persist, barring any significant deterioration of
                              the Sri Lankan rupee, 2014 could open the door to a notable bounce-
                              back in consumption.

                              Mobility is a fast-evolving trend for consumers—both on wheels and
                              in the digital space. Motorbike ownership is on the rise, enhancing
                              consumer experiences in leisure and shopping, while mobile broadband
                              expansion is broadening the way consumers interact on the go.

                              And the robust growth of the branded FMCG market toward the latter
                              half of 2013 stands to continue improving against a backdrop of
                              consumer and business optimism. And much of the growth in FMCG
                              has come from Millennials, a sizable portion of the population that
                              holds the key to future growth across a number of key sectors that
                              will need to pace themselves in order to keep up with and engage this
                              vibrant, young audience.

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company                                                                        15
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and consumer information, television and other media measurement,
online intelligence and mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in
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Diemen, the Netherlands.

For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and
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Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company   17
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