SPACE RACE: Commercialising the Path - Point-of-View - BDO Azerbaijan LLC
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S PA C E R A C E :
Commercialising the Path
Point-of-View
July 2021
Contents
From race of superpowers Roads to success
to race of billionaires in exploring space
What is shaping the space Who are in the space
exploration industry of today? race of today?
Future of in-space
economy
Introduction to What benefits will
a space journey space exploration bring
Executive summary for the economy?
2
Introduction
to a space journey
Journey into space started 50 years ago with nations’ race
making first steps using moderate technology at hand…
Key elements of space journey 50 years ago
Nations’ Space race Single use rockets
& costly shuttles
First milestones achieved:
1st man in space
Industry drivers:
1 step on the Moon
st
ideology & national pride
1st space station
3 Source: BDO Centers analysis
Introduction
to a space journey
…and continues with visionary leaders driving space into
the era of affordable travel and game-changing projects
Key elements of space journey now
Billionaires’
Space race
Ambitious projects
Reusable, cheap,
are about to come true:
and big rockets
moon base, people on Mars
& beyond, space tourism
Industry drivers: commercialisation
& business leaders’ aspiration
4 Source: BDO Centers analysis
Introduction
to a space journey
Active exploration and rapid growth of the global space
industry enable multilateral perspectives in the future
Key space players Prospective in-space industries
Elon Musk Jeff Bezos
Enable the Build the low-cost road to
colonisation of Mars space to enable near-Earth Space Space logistics Space hospitality Space Space
colonisation
mining & Orbital & Travel manufacturing farming
transportation & Construction
Richard Branson
Build the Spaceline for
2020 Earth to make space travel 2040
available for everyone
315 1,053
Bn USD Upcoming missions Predictions of future development Bn USD
Governmental agencies Private companies
SpaceX
Artemis
85 M O O N Rocket Lab Asteroid International Artemis Base Greenhousing Sustainability
countries settlements Moon village Camp in space in space
operating in space
in 2021 ESA
SpaceX
M A R S Roscosmos
5 Source: BDO Centers analysis
FROM RACE OF SUPERPOWERS
TO R A C E O F B I L L I O N A I R E S
Space exploration started more than 50 years ago from
small steps in satellites assembly… 50 years ahead and
the world observes a tremendous boost in space
technologies and missions… Future of space exploration
has become close to humanity like never before
From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
In just 50 years of exploration, there was a tremendous
boost in the space industry, starting from the Moon mission
1977
1st probe to study the
1957 1976 outer solar system
1st artificial satellite & Successful 1997
1st animal sent to orbit landing on Mars 1st operational
rover on Mars
1981
1961 1st launch of a
Yuri Gagarin: reusable space
1st human in space
1975
shuttle 1998
1st multinational International Space
crewed mission1 & Station established
st
1 probe on Venus
1969
Neil Armstrong:
1st human on the Moon 1982 1995
1st Venus soil 1st probe
sample & sound on Jupiter
1970 1971
1st rover landed
1st space
on the Moon
station 1990
launched Hubble Space
Telescope launched
Nations’ competition Nations’ cooperation
Source: Space — The Timeline: 50 Years of Spaceflight — [2012]; John M. Logsdon, Britannica — Space exploration — [2021]
7 Notes: (1) Included members from the USSR and the USA
From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
A New Space Age is boosted by big private companies
entering the space, indicating commercialisation of industry
2014 2015
1st propulsive landing
1st soft landing of an orbital rocket
2001 on a comet
Dennis Tito: 2012 1st propulsive landing
1st space tourist 1st privately owned company of a suborbital rocket
to carry cargo to ISS1 2020
1st orbital human
1sthuman-made probe spacecraft launched
by a private company
reached interstellar space
China’s 1st
manned 2003
earth orbiter 2018
1st operating rover
Space Columbia broke on an asteroid
apart at landing
1st privately developed rockets
launched from a private spaceport
2021
2004 2008 NASA picked SpaceX to land
Discovery of lunar Americans on the Moon
1st human spaceflight
water (ice)
launched by a private
company & 1st private 2019
astronaut 1st soft landing in the far
1stsuccessful launch of a
site of the Moon & 1st
privately developed rocket
germination of seed on
another celestial body
First private companies Abundance of private companies
Source: Space — The Timeline: 50 Years of Spaceflight — [2012]; John M. Logsdon, Britannica — Space exploration — [2021]
8 Notes: (1) International Space Station
From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
In XXI century, the cooperation of countries & companies is
the most effective approach to conduct space exploration
Artemis Moon programme is nowadays the biggest space
Humanity, governments, and big enterprises
exploration programme with the broad cooperation of countries
have common goals in space & companies, both in public and private sector1
Increase capabilities and decrease costs for future NASA Orion spacecraft
human and robotic space missions Sending first
woman and next Space Launch System
Space agencies cooperation
Space-based research and observation of Earth to man on the Moon
Companies cooperation
improve life on Earth and deal with environmental in 2024
problems
International Exploration Ground
Extend human knowledge of space, understanding space agencies
of Earth, solar system, and the universe that may System
support life Establishment
of sustainable Human Landing System
Explore and expand human presence beyond Earth and robust
and after that beyond the solar system presence on
the Moon CAPSTONE launch
Stimulate economic growth by the development of
space-to-earth and space-to-space economy
Source: NASA — Exploration Mission Integral to 2020 National Space Policy — [January 2021]; NASA website
9 Notes: (1) Selected companies are shown on the scheme
From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
The global space economy is projected to reach 1 Tn USD
by 2040 with the commercial sector driving the market
Global space economy, Bn USD 1,053 Governmental investment on space exploration
+1% during 2019-2029, % of total
385
258 Bn USD
383
Governmental
21% 6% 47%
sector
6% Transportation
Orbital infrastructure
8%
Commercial
79% Astronomy, astrophysics
sector & heliophysics
Moon exploration
13%
2019 20201 20402 Deep space exploration
85 countries NASA — leading space agency 466 spacecraft deployed 20%
Mars exploration
operating in space3 Budget 2021: 23.3 Bn USD 54% — by private companies4
Source: Space Foundation — The Space report — [Q2 2020]; Euroconsult — The Space economy report — [2020]; Statista website
10 Notes: (1) Based on the research of Euroconsult; (2) Based on the forecast of Morgan Stanley and Bank of America; (3) As of 2021; (4) In 2019From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
The satellite segment makes up 79% of the space economy
with the USA as a leader in satellites quantity and launches
Global space economy
by segments in 2020 3,372 satellites are active in 20211,2
385 Bn USD
79%
56.3% 12.2% 5.2%
Satellite uses by operational purposes in 2021
54.3%
Navigation /
26.9% Communications
Positioning
10.4%
4.4%
3.1%
0.9%
Space science /
Earth observation
Observation
Satellite industry
Technology development / Earth science &
Non-satellite industry demonstration Other purposes
Source: Space Foundation — The Space report — [Q2 2020]; Union of Concerned Scientists website; Statista website
Notes: (1) As of May 2021, the private company SpaceX owns 1,500 satellites; (2) Top-3 countries by active satellites
11 with a total share of 73.7%From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
Exploration of space is focused on finding new ways to
unlock the mysteries of the solar system and beyond
2018
T I T A N 2026-2034
Parker Solar Probe
Dragonfly (NASA)
(NASA)
2023-2025
2028-2030 Europe Clipper (NASA) N E P T U N E
DAVINCHI+, VERITAS (NASA) 2021-2024
Artemis (NASA)
E U R O P E S A T U R N
V E N U S 1997-2017
2024
Cassini
DearMoon (SpaceX)
(NASA, ESA, ASI3)
M O O N
J U P I T E R 1989
M E R C U R Y Voyager 2 (NASA)
E A R T H
2022
JUICE (NASA) U R A N U S4
M A R S 2023-2025
2025 Europa Clipper
(NASA) 2018
BepiColombo
Voyager 2
(ESA1, JAXA2)
(NASA)
1986
Voyager 2 (NASA)
2026-2028
Mars Sample Return (NASA)
2026 2012
Crewed mission (SpaceX) Voyager 1
(NASA)
Source: NASA website; SpaceX website
Notes: (1) European Space Agency; (2) Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency; (3) Italian Space Agency; (4) A number of
12 dedicated exploratory missions to Uranus have been proposed, yet none have been approved as of 2021From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
Moon exploration started with the US mission in 1969, yet
nowadays more private companies enter the Moon race
Nations landed on the Moon1 Major upcoming moon missions of private enterprises
Space X
30 2 2024
DearMoon
64 2023
Firefly Aerospace Blue Origin
23 1 Blue Ghost Blue Moon
suссessful2
Moon missions Masten Space Systems / Draper Lab
2022 XL-1 / Artemis-7
7 1
PTScientists Rocket Lab
2021 Alina Photon
Distance travel by Moon rovers, kilometres3,4 NASA budget on the Moon missions
Lunokhod 2 38.9
Key reasons to explore the Moon
Apollo 17 35.7 25.8 Bn USD 28.0 Bn USD
or 257 Bn USD5
Apollo 15 27.8 Water and oxygen Precious metals, Helium-3 to create
to produce rocket rocks, and rare fuel suitable for
fuel and establish earths to create fusion energy
Apollo 16 27.0 a human base building & raw generation
materials
Lunokhod 1 10.4 Project Apollo Artemis programme
1960-1973 2021F-2025F
Source: NASA — NASA’s Lunar Exploration Program Overview — [September 2020]; Statista website; National Geographic website
Notes: (1) As of 22 July 2019; (2) Successful and partially successful missions only; (3) As of July 2020; (4) Diameter of the Moon is 3,474.8
13 kilometres; (5) Brought to current prices and inflation adjustedFrom race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
The first human-crewed mission is the main focus in Mars
exploration for the space industry in the next years
Nations completed successful missions on Mars1 Major upcoming Mars missions
17 1 By countries By private company
2022-2023 2026-2028 SpaceX:
7-10
ESA / Roscosmos: NASA: Mars Sample 2024 — uncrewed
2 1 months average time ExoMars 2022 Rover Return with the aim to mission to Mars
of the trip to Mars and Surface Platform bring samples from the 2026 — crewed
surface of Mars to Earth mission to Mars
1 1
Distance travel by Mars rovers, kilometres2 Estimated life-cycle costs of Mars missions by NASA,
inflation-adjusted, Bn USD4
Opportunity 45.2 Key reasons to explore Mars Vikings 1&2 7.1
Curiosity 23.0 MSL Curiosity 3.2
Mars’s land area is Water is locked Mars still has decent
Perseverance 2.9
almost equal to the into the Mars icy sunlight as it is about
Spirit 7.7
surface area of polar caps half as far from the
Earth’s continents Sun as Earth Mars Observer 1.7
3
Perseverance 0.3 Mars Exploration
1.2
Middle-term goal — human missions to Mars Rovers
Source: Deutsche Welle website; Statista website; NASA website; ESA website; CNBS website; SpaceX website; Media overview
14 Notes: (1) As of May 2021; (2) As of July 2020; (3) As of 20 May 2021; (4) As of February 2021From race of superpowers
to race of billionaires
Except for the Moon & Mars, there are also other celestial
bodies considered to be attractive to search for life
Key facts Key facts
Venus Europa4
225 Earth days 1.1 times 3.5 Earth days 4.1 times
orbital period1 smaller than Earth orbital period1 smaller than Earth
4 months 0.7 AU3 >36 months 5.2 AU3
average time of distance from average time of distance from
the trip to Venus2 the Sun the trip to Europa2 the Sun
Current and past Venus Key reasons to explore Venus Current and past Europa Key reasons to explore Europa
missions by country5 missions by country5
Venus and Earth are alike Liquid water ocean is present
in size, density, and today and is in contact with
8 3 2 1 gravity 9 2 the rock
Astronomers detected Atomic particles trapped
Major upcoming Venus missions Major upcoming Europa missions by Jupiter crash into Europa
phosphine, which is
a possible sign of life and produce compounds that
could be used for living
VERITAS DAVINCI+ EnVision JUICE Europa Clipper
2028 2029-2030 2031-2033 In some areas, pressure 2022 2023-2025 Europa’s seafloor could be
and temperature are heated by its constant flexing
Orbiter Atmospheric Orbiter Orbiter Orbiter
quite Earth-like that could create primordial life
probe
Source: NASA website; Media overview
Notes: (1) Length of the year; (2) Using existing humanity technologies; (3) Astronomical unit — approx.
15 149.6 million kilometres; (4) Moon of Jupiter; (5) As of June 2021R O A D S TO S U C C E S S I N E X P L O R I N G S PA C E Reaching the stars and beyond — ambitious plans and big dreams of key players are becoming the powerful engine of space industry development nowadays
Roads to success
in exploring space
Active involvement of private investors in the commercial
space race could take the space industry to new frontiers
Elon Musk Jeff Bezos Peter Beck Max Polyakov
SpaceX Blue Origin Rocket Lab Firefly Aerospace
2.9 Bn USD 579.0 Mn USD 10.0 Mn USD 93.3 Mn USD
Starship takes Design a human- Launch a CubeSat Deliver science and
astronauts to the Moon landing system into lunar orbit technology payloads
Richard Branson Red Whittaker
Tim Ellis & Jordan Noone
Virgin Galactic Astrobotic Technology
45.0 Mn USD
Relativity Space 279.0 Mn USD1
3.0 Mn USD
Flight and integration Deliver payloads and
Amount of recent
services Place CubeSats into VIPER to the Moon contract with NASA
low Earth orbit
Source: AERTEC Solutions website; CNBC website; NASA website; Companies’ websites
17 Notes: (1) Total amount of two contractsRoads to success
in exploring space
Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Richard Branson are pioneers of
the commercial space race in the XXI century
Jeff Bezos Elon Musk Richard Branson
Net worth: 198.9 Bn USD1 Net worth: 155.5 Bn USD1 Net worth: 5.0 Bn USD1
Company: Blue Origin Company: SpaceX Company: Virgin Galactic
Foundation year: 2000 Foundation year: 2008 Foundation year: 2004
Space goal: Enable Moon Space goal: Enable Mars Space goal: Build the
and near-Earth colonisation colonisation Spaceline for Earth
Key milestones Key milestones Key milestones
1 st successful
16 1 1 >600
vertical successful test flights
landing of the of the New Shepard st private company to
successfully launch st private company to
bring humans to the
Seats booked on
the commercial
Collaboration of
the development
suborbital rocket suborbital rocket a rocket into space ISS (10 astronauts) space flight of supersonic jet
July 2021 May 2021 2021
scheduled launch of the first first full successful test flight of spacecraft successfully completed
commercial tourist space flight Starship May the crewed suborbital test flight
Q4 2022 first test flight of the new heavy rocket
New Glenn is scheduled 2026 cargo & crew missions to Mars Early 2022
start of the first scheduled
commercial tourist flight
Source: Aerospace security website; SpaceX website; Blue Origin website; Virgin Galactic website; The Financial Times — Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin
says it will take a civilian to space in July — [May 2021]; BBC — Virgin Galactic rocket plane flies to edge of space — [May 2021]
18 Notes: (1) As of 22 June 2021Roads to success
in exploring space
Jeff Bezos, the richest man in the world, applies his ‘slow
and steady’ approach to building a solid space business
Jeff Bezos Origin Worth and ranking Social media1 Space goal
and his main companies
Born on 12 January Net worth: 198.9 Bn USD1 2.4 million followers Build the low-cost road
1964 on Twitter to space to enable
in Forbes Billionaires List (2021)
near-Earth colonisation
Albuquerque, New 241 tweets
Mexico, USA in Forbes Innovation Leaders (2019)
Road to success through making slow but relentless progress
March May Starting from
1994 1997 1998 2000 2015 2018 2020 2020 2021
Amazon Amazon Amazon Blue Origin Blue Origin The richest Amazon record Blue Origin Space is
foundation goes public expansion foundation first milestone man capitalisation contract with NASA in focus
Online 54 Mn USD raised Amazon product Space company New Shepard Bezos became Amazon reached NASA awarded Bezos plans
bookshop set on NASDAQ range was founded, yet space vehicle the richest man 1 Tn USD market Blue Origin stepping down
up expanded. remained low successfully in the world with capitalisation 579 Mn USD as Amazon
Revenue reached profile until 2006 rocketed into net worth of 112 to develop a CEO and focus
600 Mn USD space and landed Bn USD potential lunar on Blue Origin
back lander
Source: Biography — Jeff Bezos [2021]; Business insider — After Amazon, Jeff Bezos
will devote his time to building multi-billion dollar rockets — [2021]; Forbes website
19 Notes: (1) As of 22 June 2021Roads to success
in exploring space
While performing test flights & competing for Moon mission
contract, Blue Origin is yet to become commercially viable
KEY FACTS STEP BY STEP TO SOLID RESULTS
Founded Headquarters CEO April January May April
September
2000 Kent, Washington, Bob Smith 2015 2016 2019 2021
2000
USA
Blue Origin First test flight of New Shepard Blue Moon lander Blue Origin
19 patents and Funding2 Number of founded by New Shepard booster reused development protested NASA
Jeff Bezos rocket conducted for launch announced SpaceX contract
54 trademarks1 Bezos intends to fund employees
Blue Origin with 1 Bn USD 3,3903
per year from sales of his
equity in Amazon
KEY PROJECTS
Contract with NASA Contract with NASA Participation in the Jeff Bezos New Shepard Development of Blue Origin
on Earth observation on the initial design Amazon Project Kuiper — invested 500 Mn rocket reached the new heavy signed a contract
missions, planetary of a human-landing a launch of 3,236 satellites USD since space and reusable rocket with NASA on
the company landed back ‘New Glenn’ developments for
expeditions, and system for the 2024 constellation to provide foundation announced the Moon mission
satellite launches Moon mission Artemis high-speed internet to
people around the world July November September May
2014 2015 2016 2020
Source: Craft website; Spacenews website; MIT Technology Review — Blue Origin could definitely use more
Jeff Bezos in the next decade — [2021]
20 Notes: (1) As of January 2021; (2) In 2017-2018; (3) As of June 2021Roads to success
in exploring space
Preservation of the planet and near-Earth space colonies
are at the heart of Bezos’ vision for civilisation evolution
Bezos’ concern: Bezos’ vision:
In the XXI century, humanity will face a shortage Transfer of heavy, dirty manufacturing to space and development of near-Earth colonies will help humanity
of energy resources as well as an ecological crisis deal with the potential crisis
Colony design inspired by O’Neill cylinders6
10.9 Global population in 21001
billion Size and shape
Growth of global energy Milewide spheres or cylinders
124% demand in 2100 vs. 20152
Gravity
day trip Artificially created by spinning
Fossil fuel reserves will run out by3:
Energy
2052 Oil 2060 Gas 2090 Coal
Continuous sunshine
Resources
+2.9°C Global warming by 21004 From Earth, Moon, and asteroids
Specialisation
1.1 m Sea level rise by 21005
Trillions of people
Industrial, residentional,
farming, recreation, etc.
live in colonies
Source: UN website; Climate Action Tracker website; IPCC website; Arstechnica — Jeff Bezos unveils his sweeping vision for humanity’s future in space — [2019]
Notes: (1) According to the World Population Prospects 2019 by the UN; (2) Under the medium scenario of population growth by the UN; (3) According to the
Millennium Alliance for Humanity and Biosphere website; (4) Global temperature increase compared to the pre-industrial level, projected under current policies;
21 (5) According to IPCC special report 2019; (6) Space settlement concept proposed by American physicist Gerard K. O’Neill in 1976Roads to success
in exploring space
According to Jeff Bezos, base on the Moon is the first step
to building an infrastructure for space colonisation
Idea of the Moon colonisation by Jeff Bezos
It is time to go back to the Moon — this time to stay.
Jeff Bezos
Reusable heavy
oribital rocket
‘New Glenn’
Moon lander Blue Moon’ Human landing system for
capable of delivering up to NASA Artemis Moon mission
3.6 tons of cargo
Set up the first base on the Moon Transform the Moon into
1 and build an infrastructure for 2 the manufacturing sector
space travel and space economy of the universe
22 Source: Media overviewRoads to success
in exploring space
Elon Musk’s out-of-the-box thinking made him one of the
most influential businessmen in the space industry
Elon Musk Origin Worth and ranking Social media1 Space goal
and his main companies
Born on 28 June Net worth: 155.5 Bn USD1 57.3 million followers Enable the colonisation
1971 in Pretoria, in Bloomberg Billionaires Index on Twitter of Mars
South Africa (2021)
14.5 thousand tweets
in Forbes Billionaires List (2021)
Road to success through pursuing his technological passions
1999 2002 2003 2006 2008 2010 2013 2016 2021
Sale of Sale of Tesla Investment in SpaceX contract Tesla went Introduction of Plans of Mars GPS satellite
Zip22 PayPal3 foundation SolarCity with NASA public Hyperloop5 colonisation launch
Compaq bought eBay purchased Musk started the Musk invested NASA signed a 1.6 Tesla’s IPO4 on Musk rose Musk announced SpaceX launched
Zip2 for PayPal for mission to bring 10 Mn USD in Bn USD contract NASDAQ with interest in the his plans at the a GPS satellite
307 Mn USD 1.5 Bn USD electric cars to solar technology for Falcon 9 issuing 13.3 Hyperloop 67th annual for US Space
the masses company carrying the million shares at concept with his International Force
SolarCity Dragon spacecraft a price of 17 USD ‘Hyperloop Astronautical
to the ISS Alpha’ paper Congress
Source: Britannica — Elon Musk — [May 2021]; Observer website; Inc website; Forbes website; Media overview
Notes: (1) As of 22 June 2021; (2) Provided and licensed online city guide software to newspapers; (3) Provides online payments
23 system; (4) Initial public offering; (5) Ultra-high-speed ground transportation system for passenger and cargo proposedRoads to success
in exploring space
SpaceX is a game-changing aerospace manufacturer that
designs and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft
KEY FACTS STEP BY STEP TO SOLID RESULTS
Headquarters Revenue Number of June May April April
Hawthorne, 1.2 Bn USD1 successful 2002 2012 2016 2021
California, USA launches: 151
SpaceX’s First private Falcon 9 NASA signed a 2.9
Value Funding Number of Falcon 9 rocket company that sent successfully Bn USD contract
completed its spacecraft to the landed on with SpaceX to land
74 Bn USD2 7.5 Bn USD employees first launch International Space an autonomous Americans on the
over 39 funding rounds 9,5003 Station (ISS) drone ship Moon
KEY ROCKETS of SpaceX
Faclon 9 is a Faclon Heavy Starship is a
reusable, two- is the most fully reusable
stage rocket powerful Dragon transportation
designed for operational spacecraft is system
transportation rocket globally capable of designed to
of people and with the carrying up to carry both SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Falcon 9 First private Starship spacecraft
payloads into ability to lift 7 passengers crew and rocket completed successfully company that landed in the first
its first launch landed on a drone brought humans to full successful test
Earth orbit ~64 metric to and from cargo to Earth the ISS flight
and beyond. tonnes into Earth orbit orbit, the
orbit. and beyond. Moon, Mars, June December May May
and beyond. 2010 2015 2020 2021
Source: SpaceX website; Trefis website — What Is Driving SpaceX’s Revenues & Valuation?; Forbes — Is
SpaceX Really Worth 74 Bn USD?— [April 2021]; Crunchbase website; NASA website; Media overview
24 Notes: (1) As of 2020; (2) As of February 2021; (3) As of February 2021Roads to success
in exploring space
Musk aims to make life multiplanetary by launching the 1st
civilian mission to the Moon and establishing a Mars colony
First civilian passengers on a lunar 2024 — Cargo missions to Mars Mars colony by 2050
Starship mission
1,000,000 people will live on Mars
100 Starships per year will be built
Yusaku Maezawa 1,000 Starship flights per year, 3 flights per day
The first mission will confirm water resources,
Cost of a single launch — 2 Mn USD
identify hazards and build support infrastructure.
The Mars colony should be a self-sustaining
2026 — Cargo & Crew missions to Mars city, a ‘back-up drive’ for civilisation
The first human colony on Mars will be built
The dearMoon project is the first civilian inside glass domes
mission to the Moon that was first introduced
in 2017. In 2018, Japanese entrepreneur Yusaku Direct democracy will be implemented on
Maezawa bought all seats for a lunar Starship Mars — the inhabitants will make decisions for
mission. The journey will happen in 2023 and themselves and there will be fewer and less
continue for one week. The second mission will start building a base for future complicated laws
expansion and set up a propellant production plant.
Source: SpaceX — Transcript: Making life multiplanetary — [2017]; SpaceX — Presentation: Making life
25 multiplanetary — [2017]; SpaceX website; DearMoon website; CNET website; CNBC website; Guardian websiteRoads to success
in exploring space
Musk plans to set up a permanent human base on the red
planet, with Starships carrying people to and from Mars
Road to Mars by Elon Musk
Starship Super Heavy booster
2 comes back to Earth 5 People are
3 6 landed on Mars
7
Starship is flying
to Mars
Starship is filled with CH4
4 After landing on
and O2 carried by special
Mars, Starship is
tanker in low Earth orbit
refueled using Mars
1
local resources —
Starship is H20 and CO2
launched with M A R S
Starship Super
Heavy booster that Starship is flying back to Earth
separates and 8
E A R T H carrying people from Mars
returns to Earth
Source: SpaceX — Transcript: Making life multiplanetary — [2017]; SpaceX — Presentation: Making life
26 multiplanetary — [2017]; SpaceX websiteRoads to success
in exploring space
Richard Branson, the world’s famous entrepreneur and
adventurer, aims at pioneering and leading space tourism
Richard Branson Origin Worth and ranking Social media2 Space goal
and his main companies1
Born on 18 July Net worth: 5.0 Bn USD2 12.4 million followers Build the Spaceline for
1950 most admired business leader over on Twitter Earth to make space
London, England, the past five decades (2014)3 travel available for
25,6 thousand tweets everyone
UK in the 100 Most Influential British
Entrepreneurs (2018)4
Road to success via the implementation of an adventurous approach to business and diversification
192-1980 1981-1987 1998-2000 2004 2006 2012 2015-2016 2017 2021
Foundation of Entering air Expansion into Virgin Galactic Expansion in Virgin Startup Expansion in Investing in Virgin Galactic
Virgin Records transport & telecom & rail foundation media and foundation leasure and transportation reached space for
tourism transport entertainment tourism technologies the 3rd time
First Virgin Atlantic Virgin Radio, The first Foundation of First rocket- Virgin Hotels Virgin Orbit First successful
commercial & Virgin Virgin Trains & commercial Virgin Media, powered flight and Voyagers foundation and flight by Virgin
success Holidays Virgin Mobile spaceline Virgin Comics by Virgin foundation investment in Galactic since
foundation foundation and Animation Galactic HyperloopOne 2018
spaceship
Source: Virgin Group website; Virgin Galactic website; Forbes website; Media overview
Notes: (1) Virgin Group operates more than 40 companies as of 2021; (2) As of 22 June 2021;
27 (3) According to The Sunday Times; (4) According to UK-based company RichtopiaRoads to success
in exploring space
Despite several downfalls, Virgin Galactic is at the final
stage of spacecraft development to enable tourist flights
KEY FACTS THROUGH DOWNFALLS TO CONSISTENT RESULTS
Founded Headquarters CEO December October June May
September
2004 Kent, Washington, Michael 2009 2014 2020 2021
2004
USA Colglazier
Richard Branson SpaceShipTwo VSS6 Enterprise Initial design of the VSS Unity
Market capitalisation Funding Number of launched Virgin spacecraft was broke up during high supersonic completed 6th test
Value Galactic unveiled 4th test flight. commercial aircraft flight reaching the
100 Mn USD by Virgin Group2 employees Co-pilot was killed released space altitude
8.7 Bn USD1 390 Mn USD — Aabar 8235
investments3
450 Mn USD — merger with
Social Capital Hedosophia4
KEY PROJECTS
3 employees were 15 test flights VSS Unity Contract with
Commercial flights Contract with NASA for Participation in the killed while testing completed by successfully NASA for flight
to space to start flight and integration launch of satellite components of the SpaceShipTwo completed its and integration
rocket motor 1st test flight services was
from early 2022 services until July 2023. constellation by OneWeb for SpaceShipTwo signed
The total amount of the satellite venture
contract is 45 Mn USD July February December November
2007 2012 2016 2020
Source: Virgin Galactic website; NASA website; The Guardian — Virgin Galactic launches — [October 2019]; CNBC — Virgin Galactic shares jump after
next spaceflight test is set for Saturday — [May 2021]; Bloomberg website
28 Notes: (1) As of June 2021, listed on NYSE; (2) During 2004-2010; (3) During 2010-2011; (4) In 2019; (5) As of December 2020; (6) Virgin space shipRoads to success
in exploring space
As an adventurer himself Branson sees an opportunity in
opening space for explorers who are ready to pay for it
Demand Opportunity Virgin Galactic offer
Offer:
Experience zero gravity and observe Suborbital flight to 100 km altitude and back to Earth
Earth during a short flight for
an amateaur astronaut Price:
250,000 USD
Spacecraft:
Fully reusable spacecraft system, incl. carrier and spaceship
Capacity for 8 people, incl. 2 pilots
Launch site:
Spaceport America, New Mexico, USA
Customer experience:
Safe and enjoyable high acceleration flight
6 minutes of weightlessness
Spectacular view on Earth from space
Virgin Galactic benefits:
Regular and frequent schedules
There are thousands of people Flights for tourists and researches
eager to experience space travel Expected cost decline driven by the economy of scale
29 Source: Virgin Galactic websiteRoads to success
in exploring space
Branson aims to establish the Spaceline with regular
suborbital flights executed by a reusable spacecraft system
Reusable spacecraft system
SpaceShipTwo climbs to 100 km.
WhiteKnightTwo carrier aircraft 5 Passengers experience micro-gravity
and observe Earth
SpaceShipTwo
Rocket motor propels SpaceShipTwo
into a near-vertical climb 4 Wings pivot forward to
6 a ‘feathered’ re-entry
configuration
WhiteKnightTwo carrier
lands back at the spaceport 3 WhiteKnightTwo carrier
2 climbs to 15 km altitude At 15 km altitude wings de-feather
7 for the glide to the ground
and releases SpaceShipTwo
SpaceShipTwo lands
Spaceport America 8
Reusable spacecraft system takes
1 back at the spaceport
Virgin Galactic 1
operational hub off horizontally from the spaceport
New Mexico, USA
Source: Virgin Galactic website; The Guardian — Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic prepares to go public — [July 2019]
30 Notes: (1) WhiteKnightTwo carrier aircraft and SpaceshipTwoRoads to success
in exploring space
NASA actively cooperates with space companies to achieve
maximum success in its Lunar mission — Artemis
Foundation: 2006
Mission: open access to space to Foundation: 2015
improve life on Earth Mission: provide shift toward software-
Key products: rockets — Electron & defined manufacturing by using 3D
Peter Beck Neutron; Photon Lunar spacecraft Tim Ellis & Jordan Noone printing, AI, and autonomous robotics in
Launch complexes: 2 — in New Zealand space manufacturing
Rocket Lab Relativity Space
and the USA1 Key products: Terran 1, Aeon 1, Terran R
In 2021, Rocket Lab will launch a CubeSat2
into lunar orbit for Relativity Space has a 20-
NASA using an Electron rocket and Photon Lunar spacecraft. year use agreement for a Name: Terran 1
The contract for the dedicated launch is valued at 10.0 Mn USD. factory building at NASA
Stennis Space Center that Planned first launch:
it uses to house one of September 2021
Name: Electron
Name: Photon Lunar Stargate factories. In Total number of components:
First launch: 2017 spacecraft 2020, NASA selected 6004
Relativity Space to place
Total number of launches: 19 First launch: June 20203
CubeSats into low Earth Time to print: 60 days5
Delivered satellites: 104 Usage in missions: orbit as part of its VCLS
Maximum payload: 1,250 kg to
operational payloads, hosted Demo 2 contract. The
Peculiarity: the only reusable 185 km low Earth orbit
payloads, science research, launch will take place by
orbital-class small rocket technology demonstrations, June 2022. The contract Peculiarity: world’s first
exploration value is 3.0 Mn USD. entirely 3D printed rocket
Source: AERTEC Solutions website; Rocket Lab website; Relativity Space website; NASA website; Media overview
Notes: (1) The launch rate of the base in New Zealand is 120 flights per year, while the launch complex in the USA provides up to 12 missions
per year; (2) Small satellite developed by NASA; (3) Aboard an Electron rocket; (4) Compared to 60,000 parts in other rockets; (5) All rockets
31 are printed on the Stargate factoryRoads to success
in exploring space
Griffin and Blue Ghost landers will be used by NASA as part
of the Artemis programme to carry payloads to the Moon
Foundation: 2007 Foundation: 20144
Mission: develop space robotics Mission: provide economical access to
technology for lunar and planetary space for small payloads through the
missions manufacture of launch vehicles
Red Whittaker Key products & services: Peregrine Max Polyakov3 Key products: Alpha, Blue Ghost, Beta,
Lander, Griffin Lander, planetary Gamma, Space Utility Vehicle, Launch
Astrobotic Technology Firefly Aerospace
mobility services, DHL MoonBox Facilities, DREAM 0
NASA selected Astrobotic to deliver payloads to the Moon in In 2021, Firefly Aerospace signed a 93.3 Mn USD contract with NASA
2021 (contract for 79.5 Mn USD) and VIPER1 to the Moon’s to deliver 10 science and technology payloads to the Moon surface.
South Pole in 2023 (contract for 199.5 Mn USD). This mission is a part of the Artemis programme.
Used for: Used for:
delivering payloads medium-class lander to
Used for: carry instruments to study several
to lunar orbit and accommodate a variety
aspects of the lunar surface in preparation
surface of rovers and other large
for future human missions to the Moon
payloads
First launch:
First launch: 2023
Q4 2021 First launch: 20232
Payload capacity: 94 kg — NASA payloads
Peregrine Payload capacity: Griffin Payload capacity: Lunar lander
Lander 90 kg Lander 475 kg Blue Ghost 50 kg — remain available for commercial use
Source: Astrobotic Technology website; NASA website; SpaceFlightNow website; Firefly Aerospace website
Notes: (1) Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover; (2) Griffin Lander will be launched from the Kennedy Space Center on a SpaceX Falcon
Heavy rocket; (3) Ukrainian and American space technology and IT business entrepreneur; (4) Formerly Firefly Space Systems. After going
32 bankrupt in March 2017, Firefly Space Systems was bought by Noosphere Ventures (owned by Max Polyakov) and renamed to Firefly AerospaceF U T U R E O F I N - S PA C E E C O N O M Y What is waiting for us out there in the stars… And how the development of the space industry will impact big corporations on Earth… To succeed in the next 50 years, many businesses will need to combine space romanticism with innovative commercialisation stories
Future of in-space
economy
Active space exploration extends the space ecosystem and
encourages the future development of the space industry
Space mining Space waste handling
Space logistics & Orbital transportation Earth monitoring satellite
Space Space
Space manufacturing & Construction Space renewable energy
economy sustainability
Space hospitality & Travel Space resource development
Space farming Space green engineering
S PA C E
E C O S Y S T E M
Space bioengineering Space fuels
Space telecommunications Space robotics
Space medicine & Genetics Space Space Space habitation
research access
Space nanotechnologies Interstellar colonies
Space propulsion1 Orbital lab
Source: NASA website; Global Space Fund website
34 Notes: (1) Systems for spacecraft which are used to accelerate the spacecraft for orbit-insertion, station-keeping, or attitude controlFuture of in-space
economy
Space mining opens new opportunities for deep space
exploration, however, it demands further legal regulation
NASA encourages private companies to start fossil fuels extraction The space mining industry value is estimated to reach
on the Moon as a part of the Artemis programme1 3.9 Bn USD by 2025
Top-3 opportunities
Lacus Somniorum
Rare metals / minerals extraction might boost the complementary
ispace Japan industries on Earth as the supply will be increased
Japanese lander Space mining could increase the decarbonisation of Earth, since fewer
extraction activities will be provided on Earth
2022
Space refuelling might substantially decrease costs in space
exploration and travel activities
The South Pole
Top-3 challenges
ispace Europe Lunar Outpost Masten Space Systems
Outer Space Treaty of 1967 excludes possession of any celestial bodies
Japanese lander Blue Moon Masten XL-1 lander by any country, which may put legal constraints on mining
2023 2023 2023 Propulsion systems are the major limitation factor of the payload mass
that could be transported by the spacecraft
NASA estimates that the mineral wealth of all asteroids between Minerals extraction with minimal area contamination, which might possess
Mars and Jupiter amount to 100 Bn USD per person on Earth the scientific interest, could be a limitation factor
Source: NASA website; Statista website; The Washington Post website; Milken Institute — Mining in Space Is Coming — [2021]; Frontiers
in space technologies — Current Challenges and Opportunities for Space Technologies — [2020]
Notes: (1) The programme is less focused on the financial incentive (25 K USD only), with more focus on establishing the legal precedent that private companies
35 can collect and sell celestial materialsFuture of in-space
economy
Space hospitality & travel possess high potential in the
luxury segment with the first hotel at the project stage
Space hotels are becoming more realistic as Orbital Assembly The space travel industry value is estimated to reach
Corporation (OAC) announced to build the first low orbital hotel 2.2 Bn USD by 2026
Top-3 opportunities
Station structure The Voyager Station
Real estate development in space is one of the core points for the
24 modules (12x20 metres) successful colonisation of other celestial bodies
Space real estate development might assist with Earth’s
overpopulation
SPA Gym Living rooms
Cinemas Restaurants Space real estate might highlight the space theme for the high-income
class, as they are the target audience
Possible station capacity
Top-3 challenges
~400
Space radiation is still a big challenge, since there is no solid solution
Possible construction period developed to fully tackle the space radiation issue
2025-2027
Bases and hotels on Earth orbit will face zero gravity,
Price per night which negatively impacts human health
~1.7 Mn USD
Space farming technology is still under development, hence ensuring
a permanent food supply is challenging
36 Source: Daily Mail website; Wired website; Insider websiteFuture of in-space
economy
Space farming demonstrates large potential both for deep
space travel and Earth, albeit still demanding exploration
Space farming is an essential part of space travel with some farms The vertical farming industry value is estimated to reach
already operating on the ISS and others being tested on Earth 21 Bn USD by 20282
Earth International Space Station Top-3 opportunities
Space farming technologies are applicable on Earth allowing to grow
plants in the arid climate, hence assisting the food shortage issue
MarsOasis1 Veggie
Lab Technologies LLC NASA Space farming would lower the costs of space hospitality, long-term
flights, since there will be less need in food supply from Earth
Advanced Plant Fresh food will allow to make longer flights into deep space
Habitat as the astronauts will stay healthier and resilient
NASA
Top-3 challenges
Orbital Microgravity is the major challenge for growing crops in space
greenhouse1 as delivering water to the plant is problematic
Nanoracks High Solar radiation exposure could be harmful to a crop’s DNA and
may affect germination, growth, and reproduction
EDEN ISS
Space settlers might face a low yield harvest, as the lunar or Martian soil
German Aerospace Centre (DLR)
is infertile due to the absence of organic compounds
Source: NASA website; E&T website; Horti daily website
Notes: (1) At the planning stage; (2) Technologies that are used in vertical farming might be used as
37 a basis for space farming development in the futureFuture of in-space
economy
Space manufacturing and construction are especially
attractive due to favourable microgravity space conditions
Companies developing their in-space manufacturing The space manufacturing industry value is estimated
& construction technologies to reach 5.5 Bn USD by 2027
Top-3 opportunities
In-space manufacturing and construction could benefit from the
Current Good Manufacturing Practice. MakerSat. Technology device that will advantage of microgravity and vacuum conditions
Capabilities to manufacture products demonstrate in-space manufacture of
in automated laboratories on antennas, solar arrays, and telescopes In-space manufacturing would enable sustainable space exploration
the International Space Station larger than can be fit into a space rocket
missions at a reduced cost compared to launching from Earth
Space manufacturing facilities would be able to become self-
sustaining, requiring only minimal imports from Earth
Top-3 challenges
Archinaut. Combination of Orbital manufacturing. FUTRISM. First in-
additive manufacturing with Start-up focused on in-space orbit method of
robotic assembly for remote manufacturing of specialised producing large-scale,
Extreme environmental conditions requiring innovative building
in-space construction of products that are difficult to carbon composite, 3D materials and the adoption of work in the weightless vacuum
large complex structures produce due to material structures in space
volatility or Earth’s gravity Significant costs in overcoming the energy hurdle for boosting
NASA awarded 73.7 equipment and materials into space orbit
Mn USD for Archinaut
demonstration Shortage of high skilled labour force able to be engaged in in-space
manufacturing and construction processes
38 Source: NASA website; Global Space Fund website; Companies’ websitesFuture of in-space
economy
Space transportation is expected to develop enormously,
enabling the growth of all the other space industries
The number of projects1 in space transportation is expanding The space launch services market2 is expected to reach
rapidly, ensuring the development of various types of services 32.4 Bn USD by 2027
Top-3 opportunities
In-space, lunar and planetary warehousing of satellites, equipment
M O O N and food rations will create the demand for stable supply chains
M A R S
E A R T H The chance to set standards and trends for the future of space
logistics (for example, service expectations)
The space logistics market is currently open to private operators for
Space Mobility On-orbit servicing ISS utilisation Re-entry services Suborbital flight testing of technologies and business models
Top-3 challenges
Dragon is a free- Mission Extension ICE Cubes is a HTV and HTV-X New Shepard is a Extreme physical conditions create special requirements for modes
flying spacecraft Vehicle is the platform for resupply ships are reusable suborbital
designed to deliver industry’s first delivery of the re-entry capsules rocket designed to of transports as well as for people and cargo
both cargo and on-orbit satellite experiment or designed to deliver take astronauts and
people to orbiting servicing vehicle technology on the cargo and return research payloads Launch vehicle dimensions and weight restrictions undermine the
destinations ISS and for testing payloads from to the Karman line cost benefits of economies of scale
it onboard the ISS
First launch: First launch: First launch: First launch: First launch: Commercial cost-benefit offers for space transportation providers
2010 2019 2018 2009 2015
are untested and a legal framework is not yet created
Source: Factories in Space website; DHL — Making the Moon more accessible to mankind — [2021]; Allied Market Research; Companies websites
Notes: (1) Cases presented below are selected among projects with ‘active’ and ‘demonstrated’ status; (2) The launch services market is a part
39 of the space transportation & logistics marketFuture of in-space
economy
In the next 2-3 decades, space exploration will be driven
by both existing and futuristic technologies
3D Printer Portable Magnetic Highway (FLOAT2)
Advanced 3D printers can manufacture objects The project of the robotic magnetic-based
out of plastic, metals, and other materials transport system, which will allow to perform
(like regolith) both on Earth and in space. durable payload operations on the Moon.
High Performance Spaceflight Computing Micro-swimmers (SWIM3)
Flight computing technologies will deliver a The concept of swimming micro-robots deployed
computational capacity that is more than 100 from a single robot mothercraft that will explore the
times higher compared to current analogues. Ocean Worlds of Enceladus, Europa, and Titan.
Present Future
RASSOR1 Robot Making Soil for Space Habitats
The Robot allows to excavate extraterrestrial soils The concept implies the creation of soil from
on the Moon, Mars, and asteroids that could be carbon-rich asteroid material, using fungi that will
converted into oxygen, water, and other products. degrade toxic substances and initiate soil formation.
Delay / Disruption Tolerant Networking Light Bender
The technology allows to provide space missions with The concept for the generation and distribution of
reliable internetworking, avoiding the loss of data power on the Moon through capturing and redirecting
when transferring it across extreme distances. of sunlight with the use of telescope optics.
Source: NASA website
40 Notes: (1) Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot; (2) Flexible Levitation on a Track; (3) Sensing with Independent Micro-swimmersFuture of in-space
economy
30 years ahead — humanity reaching new horizons
and overcoming challenges in the solar system and beyond
Bases on Moon & Mars Space agriculture & manufacturing Innovations
Permanent bases will be created Greenhouses will be constructed on Multiple innovations in the space
on the Moon surface — e.g. humans’ bases on the Moon and industry will boost the world’s
International Moon Village (ESA), Mars. The resources mined at M A R S economy. New propulsion space
Artemis Base Camp (NASA) with A S T E R O I D asteroids will be used by orbital engines will be created and
some bases on Mars as well. factories to construct space bases. widely used4.
Settlements on asteroids Space technologies on Earth Space transportation
Temporary settlements for Long-haul flights will be conducted Space transportation will be cheaper
asteroid mining activities will via spaceships instead of planes. than the best currently available
be built. The value of all Near M O O N Technologies in farming will allow technologies5, advanced refuelling
Earth asteroids1 is estimated to achieve high yields despite the stations will be available in space.
to be around ~100 Tn USD. arid climate.
Sustainability in space Pinwheel space stations Space leisure
Space-solar power arrays will S P A C E Manned space stations could be worth Suborbital and orbital flights will
generate 24/7 clean energy for S T A T I O N about 50 Bn USD between 2030-20502. be affordable for the middle-class
the households on Earth using Pinwheel space stations on LEO3 will be together with lunar tourism. Space
E A R T H
microwave arrays, hence used as a gateway for space travel. tourism is expected to generate
lowering carbon emissions. 850 Bn USD by 2030.
Source: NASA website; Interesting engineering website; BBC website; Media overview
Notes: (1) Near Earth asteroids whose orbits are within 1.3 astronomical units of Earth; (2) According to SpaceWorks forecast; (3) Low Earth orbit;
41 (4) For example electric ion, solar, and nuclear propulsion; (5) Compared to Falcon Heavy — 1,410 USD per kgB D O C E N T E R S C O N N E C T W I T H U S A Kyiv based consulting practice with a www.linkedin.com/company/bdo-centers focus on professional services, BDO Centers develops and scales innovations in support of the largest and most diversified group of strategy, consulting, digital, audit, tax, www.facebook.com/bdocenters and operations professionals in the world. Drawing on a combination of industry and functional expertise, the company supports service processes for Marketing, Sales www.instagram.com/bdocenters Enablement, Corporate Communications, Social Media, Events, Strategy and Business Consulting. Engineered to facilitate an increase in client centricity, the agile and nicolai.kiskalt@bdo.de cross-functional BDO Centers team provides strategic and operational value creation to accompany the full client journey.
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