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Sapio White Paper – COVID-19 #3
25/4/2020
Social Impact of COVID-19
Pandemic and Lockdown in
India
Prepared by
Supported by
Sapio Umbrella, an entity belonging to government advisory firm Sapio Analytics Pvt Ltd,
consists of 150+ experts ranging from government officers, former civil servants, business
leaders, venture capitalists, financial researchers, economic experts, epidemiologists, medical
professionals, molecular biologists, disaster management experts, statisticians and data
scientists, along with institutional tie-ups providing additional 150+ volunteers.
Page 1 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India
Abstract
COVID-19 has significantly altered the social fabric of society. This paper studies the impact
of COVID-19 and lockdown on water, sanitation, essential goods, human psychology,
behaviour, and crime rate in India. It describes the correlations between each of these aspects
and the lockdown and assesses the impact of these factors in different regions as the lockdown
continues or the virus spreads.
We start by highlighting the factors that affect the supply of clean water during the lockdown
and move on to describing how different sanitation scenarios could impact the lockdown.
Continuing the lockdown could have a major effect on water supply and effective sanitation,
which could, in turn, play an important role in the spread (or control) of COVID-19.
In these tough times, when 133 crore people are in absolute lockdown, it becomes imperative
that the supply of essential goods and services does not get disrupted. However, there are a
lot of gaps and irregularities in the current supply chain system, which lead to huge distribution
problems, ultimately causing discomfort to the citizens. We analyse and provide insights into
the factors causing these gaps.
Another aspect that has been studied in this paper is the correlation between lockdown and
human psychology and behavioural patterns. Even people having a safe place to stay inside
their homes may develop psychological conditions during the lockdown. It's important to study
the impact of pandemics on human behavioural psychology and psycho-social aspects. Similarly
studying the reaction and behaviour of people to the control measures taken by the authorities
is an important factor to consider while making decisions.
Finally, the lockdown duration has seen a wave of certain types of crimes on the rise. The crime
rate needs to be supervised and controlled to have a healthy and safe society. We study the
impact of the temporal and spatial factors that enable different types of crimes occurring or
increasing during the lockdown so that authorities can take better measures to prevent them.
Studying these aspects not only helps the authorities to make better decisions but also be
prepared for any such pandemics in the future. It also helps the people to be well-informed
and stay safe.
Page 2 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaAcknowledgements
First and foremost being a volunteer run project, Sapio Umbrella would like to express deep
gratitude to all the expert volunteers and esteemed organizations who helped in timely
compilation and creation of this whitepaper. One such organization is NMIMS university. It has
played a crucial role in providing research assistance and student resources for this project.
This white paper was primarily led by Megha Gupta, PhD, CS and Director, Women Who
Code Mumbai and supervised by Col (Dr.) Ram Athavale, a military veteran, CBRN Security
specialist and key advisor to Ministry of Home Affairs and Defence. Also, was supervised by
Dr. Mrinmayee Bhushan, passionate innovator with two National Innovation awards, Seven
granted national & international patents and Chevening CRISP Fellowship Oxford University.
The Water and sanitation impact of Covid19 pandemic was compiled and researched by
Tazeem Khan along with Rutuja Suryavanshi and Neha Doshi. The essential supplies section was
led by Fangari Qaif Navid Akhtar and assisted by Bikashkumar R Jha and Sneha
Kumbhakarna. Psychological impact was primarily researched by Kopal Sharma and helped
by Shubham Vilas Kanade and Hitakshi Jiteh Shah. Geet Desai assimilated and compiled the
research on Behavioural aspects of the pandemic along with Rubiya Naseemulgani Khatib and
Janvi Doshi. Impact on crime was researched and developed by Vikraant Pai along with Swasti
Desai and Sayli Madhukar Chaugule.
Sapio Umbrella would also like to thank coordinators who helped in proofreading and error
correction of the white paper.
Page 3 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India1. Introduction
The novel coronavirus disease that emerged at the end of 2019 began threatening the health
and lives of millions of people in a few weeks. Millions of lives have been significantly altered,
and a global, multi-level and demanding adjustment process is ongoing.
In this white paper we analyse the effect of the spread of COVID-19 and the ensuing lockdown
in India on essential supplies, water, sanitation, human psychology and behaviour, and the
nature of crimes in detail.
The supply of clean and safe water is vital anytime and even more now, to ensure that personal
hygiene, which will play a critical role in containing the COVID-19 pandemic, is maintained.
The supply chain of essential food and medical supplies is also a critical component that needs
to be looked into during the lockdown.
Another important aspect that needs to be given due consideration is the psycho-social impact
of this pandemic and the lockdown. The World Health Organization has issued guidelines for
managing the problem from both biomedical and psychological points of view. While
preventive and medical action is most important at this stage, emergency psychological crisis
interventions for people being affected by COVID-19 are also critical. Along with
psychological impacts, understanding the impact on the behaviour of citizens is equally
important as it will help the authorities make better decisions if they know how people react in
such situations.
Lastly, there has been a paradigm shift in the nature of crimes after the rise of COVID-19 cases
and the ensuing lockdown which was implemented by the Government to control the outbreak.
It is important to supervise and control the crime rate, especially when the police force is
already burdened.
Towards this end, we have curated a list of factors affecting all the social aspects listed above
during a pandemic and lockdown and presented supporting facts and figures to substantiate
them. It is important that decision-making by the authorities takes these factors into
consideration for a more data-driven approach towards minimising the negative social impact
of the pandemic and the lockdown.
Page 4 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India2. Scope, Methodology & Key Assumptions
We have referred to the articles published recently. Also, we have referred to news articles
and data to support the claims if required. We have not applied any statistical tests to check
the impact due to the lack of primary research. Ideas developed here are based on empirical
research and can be enhanced. However, the findings in this paper would serve as a starting
point for decision makers to have an idea about the propensity of the social factors getting
impacted due to the measures taken to curb spread of COVID-19 in India.
Articles and research papers from diverse sources were considered for the literature survey.
We have assumed the impact to be similar across different regions based on justifiable factors.
The research has been divided into 5 sections, viz, Water and Sanitation, Essential Supplies,
Psychological Impact, Behavioural Impact, and Crimes. Under each heading, media reports,
articles and research papers were identified, and key aspects of the impacts were noted. These
key aspects were correlated to the lockdown and their temporal and spatial relationships to
the lockdown were studied.
Page 5 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India3. Water & Sanitation
3.1. Water Supply
Clean and safe water is a basic necessity whose supply needs to be maintained during this
pandemic too. In the current lockdown, when maintaining personal hygiene is key, provision of
clean water for all is even more vital for arresting the spread of the virus and ensuring there is
no impact on daily life [1].
In this section, we will be comparing the water supply before and after lockdown. Other
external factors like season and rainfall have not been taken into account for the purpose of
this research. We are taking those factors into account which generalise well to different
localities, cities and states.
There are three main factors that are affecting the water supply because of the lockdown:
1. Authorization of settlement: Whether the area is authorized by the government or not.
If the area is unauthorized it means that they don't have access to piped water and use
private resources like water tankers for their water supply. Many slum areas are
sanctioned by the Indian government, however unauthorized slums are also mushrooming
in many areas, which are not entitled to public piped water. The private suppliers fill the
gap in such situations. Under the current lockdown scenario the supplies from private
tankers may stop altogether [2].
2. Tap location: The taps supplying water for a household may be inside the house or
outside (including community taps in slums, wells and common handpumps in villages). A
total of 62.7% in India were estimated to have the principal source of water outside
their dwelling [65]. Under lockdown conditions, social distancing is tough to maintain
when people tussle over limited water supplies. Tankers may also refuse to go into
sealed contaminated hotspots, especially unregulated and unauthorized areas, for fear
of contracting the disease and thereby denying water to affected areas.
Page 6 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India3. Availability of chemicals and protective equipment for workers at water treatment
facilities: Adequate supply of water-purifying chemicals needs to be maintained at all
water treatment plants [70]. The workers there also need to be provided with proper
masks and sanitisers for their safety as well as to ensure that they do not skip work in
gear of contracting the virus. The Health Ministry has advised all states to ensure this
and water-purifying chemicals have been declared as essential goods as well [71].
Since the third factor above hasn't been affected by the lockdown so far, we will analyse the
correlation of lockdown and spread of virus with the other two factors below.
Table 3.1: Correlation between lockdown and the water supply assuming that water treatment
plants haven't been affected adversely.
Authorization Tap
of Settlement Location Effect of Lockdown on Water Supply
Authorized The water supply of such households, for example those in
buildings in urban cities, doesn't get affected as they get
Inside piped water.
These types of households, where residents use community
taps, common wells or handpumps, will only be slightly
affected by complete lockdown because of common water
Outside collection points and ineffective social distancing.
Unauthorized These types of households, which illegally draw water from
the main water supply, will only get majorly affected by a
complete lockdown and slightly affected by a lenient
Inside lockdown.
These households have a private source of water like
tankers, some of which are illegal. These areas will be
heavily affected by lockdown because illegal tankers will
stop plying for fear of getting caught and even with legal
tankers, ineffective social distancing because of common
Outside water collection points will be a problem.
3.2. Sanitation
Sanitation is one of the most important steps to fight against COVID-19. One of the major issues
in these slums is that most of them don’t have a private washroom. One common toilet serves
most of the slum houses in an area. In Dharavi, Mumbai, for example, there is only one toilet
per 1,440 residents and 78% of community toilets in Mumbai's slums lack a water supply,
Page 7 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Indiaaccording to Greater Mumbai Municipal Corporation survey [3]. Lockdown will result in non-
availability of staff manning public toilets who maintain discipline and sanitation after each
use. This will have an adverse effect as the public will be prone to infection [4].
There are two main factors that may affect the sanitation level because of the lockdown:
1. Type of toilet access: 1) Access to a private toilet inside a house, 2) access to public
toilets maintained by the government, 3) no access.
2. Sanitation: Whether the toilets are sanitized or not. If they are it reduces the chances of
infection and vice versa.
The risk of catching the virus due to lockdown depends on these two factors as explained in the
table below.
Table 3.2: Correlation between lockdown and sanitation
Type of Toilet
Access Sanitisation Correlation between Virus Spread and Sanitation
Private
Most secure in terms of avoiding infection in any case of
Yes lockdown.
No Not applicable
Public People in hotspots will be affected due to ineffective social
Yes distancing and infection risk.
The chances of getting infected are very high in regions with
high to moderate cases, especially when some patients may
No be asymptomatic.
No access
There will be a high risk of infection at all times unless there
No are no COVID-19 cases in the area.
Thus, water may not be available in adequate amounts due to lockdown conditions, especially
in underprivileged areas. Therefore, the affected individuals are likely to trade off regular
hand-washing hygiene with basic necessities (cooking, cleaning, drinking, etc.)[2]. Poor
sanitation at public toilets can also contribute to the spread of the virus, especially since social
distancing cannot be maintained. Thus, the chances of spread might increase with the increase
in the lockdown or control.
Page 8 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India4. Essential Supplies
This section will discuss how the supply of essentials like groceries and medical items is getting
affected under the lockdown. A peculiar characteristic of a strong supply chain is that all the
stakeholders are interconnected and interdependent on each other, the most important thing
which binds them is the flow of information and the flow of material. Unfortunately, this got
disrupted due to lockdown being implemented on a short notice.
This leads us to the very important question, “Would our supply chain system be able to sustain
the stress and help the proactive initiatives taken by our government and citizens?” In order to
answer this question, first we need to understand about all the stakeholders involved—the
Government, manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, retailers, consumers, and the most
important, transporters which link all of the former stakeholders.
The availability of goods at the source is currently not an issue. There is a staggering 77 million
tonnes of food grain in stock with The Food Corporation of India (FCI) (as of March 2020) [5].
India’s production capacity of the anti-malarial drug, Hydroxychloroquine, which is touted to
be the potential remedy for COVID-19, is three times its requirement for the country [74]. The
challenge of meeting the demand for PPE is also being met by ramping up production by
utilizing production units which were used for manufacturing clothes during pre COVID-19
period [76].
The Government is also proactively using available infrastructure like the Railway network for
disbursement of essentials. Between 23rd March and 14th April, more than 788,000 wagons
have transported essentials to keep the supply chain functional. Of these, more than 515,000
wagons carried commodities such as food grain, salt, sugar, milk, edible oil, onions, fruits,
vegetables, petroleum products and coal, while a year ago, for the same period the railways
had loaded just 490,000 wagons with essential commodities [6].
However, the following factors are still affecting the supply of essentials during lockdown:
Page 9 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India1. Panic buying: Concerns about availability of goods coupled with fear of increase in
price of essential items have resulted in panic buying among the consumer. There are
reported cases of 75% increase in ticket size for groceries and pharmaceutical products
[7]. This initiated a signal of false demand in the supply chain network. The domino effect
of this scenario compelled retailers to stock more goods and increased the period of
inventory cycle to avoid shortage of goods at later stages and be able to serve their
customers better. According to an on-ground survey conducted by our team, it was found
that essential supplies are somehow being supplied to the local SKUs (Stock Keeping
Units).
2. Physical vs digital stores: A paradigm shift in consumer behaviour has been observed
after the spread of COVID-19. A recent survey by NRF found that:
a. 9 in 10 consumers have changed their traditional shopping habits.
b. More than 50% of consumers have ordered products online that they would
normally purchase at a store.
c. Nearly 6 in 10 consumers say they are worried about going to the store due to
fear of being infected.
Responding to this trend, many large offline retailers including Future Group, Spencer’s
Retail and Metro Cash and Carry have moved online to serve customers. Big Bazaar
stated that their online or telephonic orders accounted for 30% of hypermarket sales.
Spencer’s Retail daily figures of OOS (out of store) orders increased from mere single-
digit figures to almost 100 orders per store post lockdown [59].
3. Inter-state and intra-state travel restrictions: According to All India Motor Transport
Congress, the daily movement of trucks has collapsed to less than 10% of the normal
level after the lockdown was imposed. Even though the government has listed the
transport of goods by road as essential service, there is a lack of proper implementation
of rules and regulations on ground [60].
This has impacted sales of seasonal fruits and vegetables which are broadly classified
as perishable. For instance, the arrival of mangoes in the local markets of Jaipur have
been delayed as the trucks are stuck in Gujarat, UP, Karnataka and Maharashtra [62].
The farmers in Delhi and Assam also are not able to supply their produce to local
markets as they are shut because of restrictions [64]. In a recent incident, retailers in
Page 10 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaPune returned 2.5 lakh litres of milk back to dairies as they were not able to sell it due
to limited operation hours [58].
4. Availability of labour: One major factor which has hampered our supply chain network
is the availability of labour. Major chunk of the labour force comprises migrant workers
who, due to fear of starvation and contracting the virus, have gone back to their native
places in huge numbers. Due to shortage of labourers coupled with restriction on travel
by local authorities, SKU’s are not able to supply these products to retailers. These
essential supplies include soaps, handwash, sanitizers, powdered milk etc. All the major
consumer brands such as HUL and P&G are facing this issue [81].
Hence, panic buying, and shortage of labour caused by social distancing guidelines as well as
travel restrictions have together caused a major blow to our supply chain system and have
resulted in shortage of essential goods at Point of Sale (POS). Shortage of essential goods
have also caused an increase in their price with reported cases of 10% to 15% increase in
price of dals, rice and flour [61].
5. Psychological Impact
As the COVID-19 pandemic sweeps across the world, it is causing widespread concern, fear
and stress, and negative psychological conditions. A lot of cases are being reported with a
range of psychological conditions, from post-traumatic stress symptoms to confusion, anger,
depression, stress, insomnia and emotional exhaustion. Some researchers have suggested that,
long-lasting effects of quarantine are exhaustion, detachment from others, anxiety, irritability,
insomnia, poor concentration and indecisiveness, deteriorating work performance, and
reluctance to work or consideration of resignation.
The preliminary results of a survey of 369 adults living in 64 cities in China reveal that adults
facing COVID-19 are more distressed, and have lower physical and mental health, and life
satisfaction [9].
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Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaFigure 1.1 - Distribution of percentage of psychological factors for those who had been
quarantined after the SARS outbreak [11]
Factors contributing to the lockdown increasing psychological disorders:
1. Pre-existing conditions: In a recent survey conducted by the Indian Psychiatry Society,
the sudden rise in those suffering from mental illness is up to 20% [56]. Around 10% of
the Indian population suffers from common mental illnesses including depression, anxiety
and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The lockdown situation is increasing
nervousness in them [57]. Its impacts can be particularly difficult for older people who
might be experiencing cognitive decline or dementia, loneliness and helplessness.
2. Disruption of routine: School routines are a coping mechanism for students but due to
schools being suspended, there is no opportunity for them to get the social support for
a good mental well-being. Children with special education needs, such as those with
autism spectrum disorder, are also at risk [10].
3. Miscommunication of facts: Children, who account for 42% of the world's population,
have been exposed to a large amount of information but there's a lack of normalised
conversation between the children and the adults about how to perceive the situation
and information they are getting. This miscommunication is affecting children between
the ages of 4-7 [14]. Information overload through news channels and social media, a
lot of which is also fake and alarmist, is also contributing to a lack of understanding of
the actual causes, cure and implications of the virus. In addition, it is also playing a big
part in raising the levels of stress and anxiety among people. Since the announcement
of nationwide lockdown, Maharashtra has registered 218 cases against misinformation
Page 12 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Indiaand propaganda on social media. This is the case of one state of India [79], these
numbers are much higher for the entire country and will keep increasing with the
increase in lockdown.
4. Uncertainty about the timeline of the pandemic: Uncertainty of exams along with
that of the job market linger among the students, adding to their anxiety. In a report
by Kaiser Family Foundation in the United States, by mid-March 32% reported that
stress and worry about Coronavirus impacted their mental health, however, two weeks
later in march the percentage had risen to 45% [82]. This number may probably
increase as the number of cases increases in India.
5. Elderly population: A disruption of routine combined with the inability to effectively
communicate with loved ones through digital mediums is affecting the mental well-being
of the elderly. A survey by HelpAge India estimated that 10-20% of senior citizens in
India are suffering from loneliness during this pandemic [20].
6. Fear of stigmatisation: After the SARS outbreak, quarantined participants were
significantly more likely to report stigmatisation and rejection from people in their local
neighbourhoods. Participants in several studies reported that others were treating them
differently: avoiding them, withdrawing social invitations, treating them with fear and
suspicion, and making critical comments. In May 2003, 7,327 SARS related calls were
received by the mental health helpline of the United States. Out of these, 4013 calls
were sampled and 10% of those calls were individuals expressing their concerns
related to stigmatization and discrimination [15].
7. Alcohol withdrawal: Mental stress due to lack of alcohol is another recognised health
condition the world over. In recent times in India, Kerala and Meghalaya, have reported
suicide attempts due to non-availability of alcohol. Kerala has observed 7 suicides in
between 25th March to 2nd April 2020. Although, the percentage is less than 5% for
now, in states with high liquor consumption suicide numbers may increase [16].
8. Dysfunctional family dynamics: For people with dysfunctional family dynamics, such
as an abusive partner or domineering parents, staying at home is a trigger for anxiety,
Page 13 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Indiawhich leaves many people susceptible to relapse of clinical depression. There is a 100%
rise in domestic violence cases in India as of April 8, 202, due to lockdown [75]. The
continuation of lockdown will just increase this number.
9. Loss of livelihood: According to ideas for India, in the current pandemic situation, the
jobs and earnings of an estimated 0.20 billion workers, including casual workers,
regular or salaried workers without any job security, and sole self-employed (own
account or unpaid family), are at stake [77]. These numbers will just soar up in the
coming time with the continuation of the lockdown.
As per NIMHANS director, by 2nd April 2020 they had received over 2500 calls on their
helplines for mental health within 2 weeks. WHO had estimated that by 2020, more than 200
million Indians may have mental illnesses, which has already increased by 50% in the last 2
weeks during the COVID-19 spread [18]. Even before COVID-19, a WHO-run study estimated
the economic loss in India between 2012-2030, due to mental health conditions, to be around
1.03 trillion dollars. With COVID-19, it might be a lot worse.
Around 28th March 2020, National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences launched a
national COVID-19 psychosocial helpline in conjunction with the Health Ministry. On day 1 itself,
they received 1,000 calls and there was an exponential increase there on [21]. The Institute of
Mental Health observes around 50 patients for consultation daily but in this unfortunate
situation, the number of patients has increased to a whopping 200. A helpline was established
by Piramal Swasthya Management and Research Institute in collaboration with National Health
Mission and they had reached out to 20,656 people quarantined in Assam and attended to
over 132,690 calls as of 10th March 2020, with over 80% of these calls related to COVID-
19 cases [13].
6. Behavioural Impact
In these unprecedented times, the authorities are doing their best to make informed decisions
bearing citizens’ reactions and situations in mind. Therefore, it is very important to study
people’s reactions in such situations.
Page 14 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaAs we have already entered the fourth week of lockdown in India at the time of writing this
paper, we are witnessing the rise in sense of responsibility among the citizens who are trying
to maintain social distancing wherever possible. This can be witnessed in the manner in which
local retailers are managing customers. There have been sudden pop-ups of circles and blocks
in front of shops in order to guide the customers to maintain safe distancing.
The success of the lockdown is only possible if the people follow the lockdown on their own.
Forcibly imposing lockdown in a country with 130 CR. population is a gargantuan and a near
impossible task. However, since the start of the lockdown, there have been multiple violations.
Till 15th of April, 46,000 cases had been registered in the state of Maharashtra, 912 in
Kolkata, and 66,000 FIRs filed till 4th of April in Delhi [22][23][24].
Behavioural factors contributing to spread of the virus and violation of the lockdown are:
1. Resistance to change in lifestyle: Many people who were used to an active and sporty
lifestyle are feeling cramped. They are still going out for jogs and walks, at times even
with shopping bags, to pose as shoppers. There are a few who take their two-wheelers
and drive around avoiding the policemen and trying to reconnoitre the area. Such
violations of lockdown due to sheer inability to accept the restricted lifestyle can be
detrimental to the efforts to prevent spread of the disease [80].
2. Religious beliefs: India, during this lockdown interval, has seen two major religious
events, namely Tablighi Jamaat and Siddhalingeshwara Fair in Karnataka [25][26].
Tablighi Jamaat has resulted in a steep rise in positive cases. The Siddhalingeshwara
fair, organised in Kalburgi district has also been designated as a hotspot cluster by
GOI. Apart from these two events, no other major religious processions were carried
out despite major festivals like Ram Navami and Navratri. Various religious leaders all
across the country have also appealed to their followers to not carry out these large
processions. This shows a willingness of people to fight against this pandemic.
3. Availability of essentials during lockdown: The accessibility of daily essentials is an
important factor for deciding for/against the lockdown. People got most of their
essentials despite the lockdown. Stress of this supply was divided between both online
and local retail stores in India.
Page 15 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaFigure 6.1: Date of survey: 13-14th April, 2020, Sample size: 8000+ [29]
4. Daily wage earners and migrant workers: An overwhelming 139 million people or
more workers are those who migrate from rural areas to urban labour markets,
industries and farms. They work in almost all types of industries and are paid on a daily
basis. The lockdown caused almost all non-essential work to be stopped and this
immediately affected their income flow. Major cities like Delhi and Mumbai witnessed
an outflux of these workers towards their native places, thus violating the lockdown
[67].
Figure 6.2: A general migration inflow chart showing from where migrant workers
generally come from and go where to work [30].
Page 16 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaAlthough many local and state authorities then facilitated their movements to their native
places, and set up relief camps to provide them with food and basic essentials [31],
extension of the lockdown and fear of starvation has caused them to get out and look
for work.
5. Source of information: Rumours spread by social media and sensationalized “news”
have resulted in many instances of panic buying and closure of shops during open
timings. On the day when the PM asked the Indian citizens to light a lamp in recognition
of our COVID-19 heroes, there were firecrackers and celebrations. On 14th April, a
crowd of nearly 3000 migrant workers gathered at Bandra station because a rumour
regarding fake trains was circulated. Despite the accommodation arrangements made
by the government for the migrant workers, misinformation was creating panic among
them [72][73].
Wrong source of information and its incorrect interpretation can be very harmful.
Frequent government-issued communication through a variety of channels is very
important so that it reaches the maximum number of people and dispels any myths
about the pandemic.
In addition to the above factors, misplaced optimism in many citizens who are not taking the
threat seriously has been quite a setback for enforcers of the lockdown. In some cases, people
have barricaded lanes and had street parties in total negation of lockdown norms.
Stigmatisation of symptomatic patients is resulting in their reluctance to come forward and ask
for help. Further, the relatives of positive-tested patients are being viewed as outcasts and, at
times, denied sharing of local assets. Disease prevalence is also affecting how strictly lockdown
is obeyed. Fewer violations are reported in containment zones as people living there are afraid
to step out.
7. Crime
Once any region is locked down, there is considerable change observed in the criminal activity.
Even though there is an overall dip in the crime rate up to 20% in some areas to 80% in
metropolitan Indian cities [32], it is observed that crimes such as domestic violence, counterfeit
Page 17 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Indiafraud, cybercrime, xenophobia & racism, attacks on frontline workers, and lockdown-violation
related crimes have been increasing.
The following types of crimes have been on the rise during lockdown in India:
1. Attacks on frontline workers: An alarming number of attacks on frontline workers such
as health workers, cleaning staff and police officials while carrying on their duties have
been reported [49]. Healthcare workers are also facing discrimination in the communities
they live in and are being isolated, harassed and mistreated on several occasions [50].
A total of 162 people have been arrested for assaulting 97 policemen in Maharashtra
in March 2020 [51]. 54 people were held by police in Bengaluru for attacking
healthcare workers on April 21, 2020 [68]. The Government of India has passed an
ordinance to make attacks on frontline workers a punishable offence [69].
2. Violation of lockdown: In absence of vaccination, lockdown and social distancing
measures are the only ways to flatten the growth curve. However, it has been observed
that due to a wide variety of reasons, some of which have been discussed in the previous
sections, lockdown violations are taking place across India and the world.
568 people have been arrested in Badaun district of Uttar Pradesh on 15th April, 2020
[53], 46,671 cases have been registered against citizens in Maharashtra, and as many
as 9,155 people have been arrested in this regard as of April, 2020 [52]. 540 cases
have been registered against quarantined people who defied isolation rules [54]. Delhi
Police have registered FIRs against 66,000 people under Delhi Police Act for violating
the lockdown, 3350 FIRs have been lodged under Section 188 of IPC, 10000 vehicles
impounded, and around 40 FIRs have been lodged against the violators of home
quarantine [55].
3. Domestic violence on women: In Canada, there has been a rise in cases of women
fleeing homes due to prolonged lockdown [35]. The National Commission for Women
(NCW) has recorded a more than twofold rise in gender-based violence post lockdown.
This steep rise accounts for a number of factors including family locked down, sexual
frustration, mental illness and psychological disorders.
In India, the total complaints from women rose from 116 in the first week of March (March
2-8, 2020), to 257 in the final week of March (March 23-April 1, 2020). Complaints of
Page 18 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Indiarape or attempted rape have risen sharply from 2 to 13, while cases of domestic
violence have increased from 30 to 69 over the same comparative period.
Simultaneously, there has been an almost threefold increase in police apathy towards
women’s complaints with the National Commission for Women (NCW) receiving 16
complaints on the issue as compared to 6 earlier, as the police are busy enforcing the
lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, complaints relating to the “right to
live with dignity” too have doubled, rising from 35 cases to 77 [36][37][38].
Figure 7.1: Complaints in India, March 2020
4. Counterfeit materials fraud: INTERPOL is seeing an increase in counterfeit medical
products and fraud ever since there is a steep increase in demand for medical goods.
With surgical masks and other medical supplies in high demand yet difficult to find, fake
shops, websites, social media accounts and email addresses claiming to sell these items
have sprung up online as well as in medical stores and retail stores [39]. A licensed
physician in San Diego, was charged with mail fraud. He claimed 100% cure for COVID-
19 [40]. In India, fake N95, PPE and unverified products were being sold due to the
surge in demand for such medical products and panic buying of medical products without
right information [41]. In UP one godman claimed to have found a cure to COVID-19
and was selling fake drugs at a very cheap price [67].
5. Cybercrime: India has the second largest number of Internet users in the world. Figure
7.2 gives a fair idea of the distribution of the different strata of users in India. Since the
largest consumer of Internet in India is located in the urban areas, there is an increase in
Page 19 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Indiaconsumption of Internet due to lockdown as people are working from home.
Consequently, urban areas and semi-urban areas have become hotbeds for cybercrimes.
In Maharashtra, cyber-crime cases have gone up by 20 to 25% in two weeks of
lockdown [42]. These crimes include Netflix accounts getting hacked, spam emails
threatening to share passwords and important data, WhatsApp accounts getting hacked
and being used to pass obscene messages and subversive content, among others. Cyber-
criminals are also exploiting fears around the COVID-19 outbreak to conduct email
scams, phishing and ransomware attacks [43].
Figure 7.2: Distribution of Internet usage in India (in Million Users) as on Jan 2019
6. Xenophobia & racism: Racist and xenophobic crimes, especially Sino-phobic crimes,
have become a global phenomenon due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As COVID-19
originated in China, there have been many incidents of discrimination against the Chinese
and those perceived as being Chinese, as well as against people from areas with high
infection rates. This has manifested in plummeting sales at Chinese restaurants, near-
deserted Chinatown districts, racist bullying, memes and news articles targeting Asian
communities in North America [44][45][46]. In India too, there has been a rise in
Islamophobia after Indian authorities linked dozens of cases of COVID-19 to the Tablighi
Jamaat group that held its annual conference in Delhi in early March, 2020 [47]. The
Rights and Risks Analysis Group (RRAG) has been monitoring acts of racism and racial
discrimination against people from north-eastern India who have been living mainly in
metropolitan cities for education, employment and medical treatment [48].
Page 20 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaTable 7.1: Factors affecting the crime opportunity and crime environment for various types of
crimes during the lockdown
Type of Factors affecting the opportunity Factors affecting the environment
Crime for the crime of the crime
Domestic ● Duration of lockdown ● Lockdown level
violence on
● Constitution of families ● Police to population ratio
women
● Past statistics of domestic
violence in the area
Counterfeit ● Duration of lockdown ● Lockdown level
materials ● Fake news ● Fake websites
fraud ● Demand of materials ● Retail stores
● No. of Illegal Manufacturers ● Medical shops
● No. of roadside vendors
Cybercrime ● Duration of lockdown ● Lockdown level
● Active internet users ● Commercial and non-
commercial users
Xenophobia ● Duration of lockdown ● Lockdown level
& racism
● Demographics ● Social gathering places
● Percentage of population (market, grocery store,
susceptible to such a crime religious places, etc.)
● Fake news
Attacks on ● Healthcare workers on ● Lockdown level
frontline frontline
● Local understanding about
workers
the virus
● Perception of frontline
workers
Violation of ● Duration of lockdown ● Lockdown level
lockdown
● Essential item reserves at ● Social gathering places
home (market, grocery store,
religious places etc.)
Page 21 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in IndiaCrime Opportunity theory is a theory that suggests that offenders make rational choices and
thus choose targets that offer a high reward with little effort and risk [33][34]. The occurrence
of a crime depends on the presence of at least one motivated offender who is willing to engage
in a crime and the conditions of the environment in which that offender is situated. For example,
a woman staying home is more susceptible to domestic abuse compared to a woman who works
because she is away from that environment and through this, she minimizes the opportunity for
the crime. Hence, we can say that the likelihood of an offender engaging in any criminal activity
is a function of time (crime opportunity) and space (crime environment).
Page 22 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in India8. Conclusion
The fight against COVID-19 needs to be fought not just medically but also on social fronts. It is
a Societal war against a disease. In this paper, we analysed its social impact and studied the
factors that affect water and sanitation, supply of essential goods, human psychology and
behaviour, and the crime rate during the lockdown period.
Supply of clean water and sanitation are basic necessities for day-to-day life and authorities
need to ensure that they do not get adversely affected because of the lockdown. Maintaining
personal hygiene is even more vital for arresting the spread of the virus during this pandemic.
We analysed the effect of lockdown on water supply and sanitation. Based on various factors,
we concluded that in underprivileged and unauthorized settlements, water may not be available in
adequate amounts and people are likely to trade off regular hand-washing hygiene with basic
necessities like cooking and drinking. The people in these regions will also be more susceptible
to contracting the virus because of ineffective social distancing at common water collection
points. Inadequate sanitation at public toilets can also contribute to the spread of the virus,
especially since social distancing is hard to maintain there.
As for essential food and medical items, there is an abundance of supplies available at the
source, but the issue lies in its disbursement. The major reason for this is the instability in the
supply chain of essentials, created due to shortage of labour and the travel restrictions imposed
under lockdown. The shortage of essential products at the POS has created uneasiness among
consumers, hence many buyers resorted to panic buying. To compensate for the requirement,
retailers have increased their inventory turnover period for the goods which are high in
demand.
After studying the psychological impact of COVID-19 on people under lockdown, it is
understood that issues such as mental illness, loneliness, fear, panic, frustration, and anxiety might
significantly impact the population. People with pre-existing psychological conditions, the
elderly, children whose daily routine has been disrupted, students who are uncertain about their
future because of the lockdown, people who have lost their livelihood, those who fear
Page 23 of 32
Social Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Indiastigmatisation by the society if they test positive, and those who have dysfunctional families are
especially susceptible to a variety of psychological disorders due to the lockdown. Moreover,
the amount of fake and sensationalised news that is circulating and painting a faulty picture of
the pandemic is a big contributor to the levels of stress and anxiety among the general
population.
Despite people having reacted largely positively to the lockdown, there have been instances
of major violations of lockdowns and these need to be kept in check to contain the spread of
the virus. Availability of daily essentials, religious congregations, loss of livelihood and homes
by migrant workers, prevalence of the disease in hotspots, and sources of information have
been identified as some of the most important factors influencing the willingness of people to
comply with the lockdown.
Crime primarily depends on opportunity and environment of the crime. The lockdown has seen
a rise of certain types of crimes like domestic violence, xenophobia, attacks on frontline workers,
counterfeit fraud, lockdown violations and cybercrime. The factors affecting the opportunity
and environment for these crimes have been identified and these can help the authorities to
take steps that would bring down the crime rate during the lockdown.
Page 24 of 32
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Page 29 of 32
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