Slipping to the Extreme: A Mixed Method to Explain How Extreme Opinions Infiltrate Online Discussions
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Slipping to the Extreme: A Mixed Method to Explain How Extreme Opinions Infiltrate Online Discussions Quyu Kong,1,2 Emily Booth,2 Francesco Bailo,2 Amelia Johns,2 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu1,2 1 Australian National University 2 University of Technology Sydney quyu.kong@anu.edu.au, emily.booth@uts.edu.au, francesco.bailo@uts.edu.au, amelia.johns@uts.edu.au, marian-andrei.rizoiu@uts.edu.au Abstract and Vraga 2018) being recorded in the literature. To date, arXiv:2109.00302v1 [cs.SI] 1 Sep 2021 there exist three primary types of methods for address- Qualitative research provides methodological guidelines for ing problematic information. The first type concentrated on observing and studying communities and cultures on online social media platforms. However, such methods demand con- large-scale monitoring of social media datasets to detect in- siderable manual effort from researchers and may be overly authentic accounts (bots and trolls) (Ram, Kong, and Ri- focused and narrowed to certain online groups. In this work, zoiu 2021) and coordinated disinformation campaigns (Ri- we propose a complete solution to accelerate qualitative anal- zoiu et al. 2018). The second group aims to understand ysis of problematic online speech — with a specific focus on which platforms, users, and networks contribute to the “in- opinions emerging from online communities — by leverag- fodemic” (Smith and Graham 2019; Bruns, Harrington, and ing machine learning algorithms. First, we employ qualita- Hurcombe 2020; Colley and Moore 2020). The third group tive methods of deep observation for understanding problem- uses computational modeling to predict future pathways atic online speech. This initial qualitative study constructs an and how the information will spread (Molina et al. 2019). ontology of problematic speech, which contains social media These studies provide valuable insights into understanding postings annotated with their underlying opinions. The qual- itative study also dynamically constructs the set of opinions, how problematic information spreads and detecting which simultaneous with labeling the postings. Next, we collect a sources are reshared frequently and by which accounts. large dataset from three online social media platforms (Face- Though the first and third research approaches offer breadth book, Twitter and Youtube) using keywords. Finally, we in- of knowledge and understanding, there are limitations — troduce an iterative data exploration procedure to augment the they often have less to say about why certain opinions and dataset. It alternates between a data sampler, which balances views gain traction with vulnerable groups and online com- exploration and exploitation of unlabeled data, the automatic munities. labeling of the sampled data, the manual inspection by the Qualitative research methods are well placed to address qualitative mapping team and, finally, the retraining of the automatic opinion classifier. We present both qualitative and this gap. They provide rich, contextual insights into the quantitative results. First, we present detailed case studies of social beliefs, values, and practices of online communi- the dynamics of problematic speech in a far-right Facebook ties, which shape how information is shared and how opin- group, exemplifying its mutation from conservative to ex- ions are formed (Glaeser and Sunstein 2009; Boyd 2010; treme. Next, we show that our method succesfully learns from Baym 2015; Johns 2020). This is also fundamental to un- the initial qualitatively labeled and narrowly focused dataset, derstanding how and why certain opinions and information and constructs a larger dataset. Using the latter, we exam- sources scale to encompass large segments of the online so- ine the dynamics of opinion emergence and co-occurrence, ciety (Bailo 2020; Bruns, Harrington, and Hurcombe 2020). and we hint at some of the pathways through which extreme However, a common criticism of qualitative research is that opinions creep into the mainstream online discourse. the in-depth knowledge comes at the expense of generat- ing insights of limited representativeness and weak robust- 1 Introduction ness of the findings. Therefore, there is a gap between the depth of insight gained from ethnographic and qualitative In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic alerted the world to com- approaches and the breadth of knowledge gained from com- plex issues that arise from social media platforms circulating putational methods from data science. user-generated misinformation, hate speech, and conspiracy theories (Posetti and Bontcheva 2020). Such forms of prob- This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a mixed- lematic information (Jack 2017) have been studied before, method approach that brings together qualitative insights, with the influence of disinformation campaigns on elec- large-scale data collection, and human-in-the-loop machine tions (Kim et al. 2019), disaster management (Rajdev and learning approaches. We apply our method to map both in- Lee 2015) and other global public health promotions (Bode depth and in-breadth the problematic information around four topics: 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, Climate Copyright © 2021, Association for the Advancement of Artificial change, COVID-19, and Vaccination on three social me- Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved. dia platforms (Facebook, Twitter and Youtube). Specifically,
this work addresses three open questions concerning apply- Deep qualitative study ing machine learning and qualitative research in analyzing Social Media Platforms Qualitative Wikibase problematic online speech. Researchers Postings Opinions The first research question emerges naturally from the Topics gap: can we leverage both qualitative and quantitative analysis for studying problematic online speech? To ad- dress this challenge, we present a complete solution that Data Collection Tools bridges and facilitates both analyses (shown in Figure 1). Data to label We first build a platform based on an open-source tool, Wik- ibase, where qualitative and quantitative analysis is con- Data Trained ducted. It enables constructing an ontology of problematic Sampler Classifiers online speech by performing the qualitative study, which la- Unlabeled Data bels data by topics and builds the vocabulary of opinions simultaneously. We then collect large-scale raw data using Unlabeled data collection Dataset augmentation the uncovered vocabulary. Next, we employ machine learn- ing algorithms to augment the data labeling process with a Figure 1: The pipeline of machine learning accelerated qual- human-in-the-loop setting. Finally, we show both a sample itative research where the human-in-the-loop machine learn- thematic and discourse analysis from the qualitative study ing algorithms are employed for dataset augmentation. focused on two examples of Facebook posts and comments from a far-right public Facebook group, and the quantitative outcome with measurements and statistics of the produced the unavoidable selection bias of the deep qualitative study. vocabulary. It also offers critical information for opinion mapping; we The second question concerns the scaling of the qualita- study the opinion cross-occurrence network, making several tive approaches. Such approaches require the team to ob- observations. First, we find stable central opinions such as serve, record and collect online discussions. One needs to “Mainstream media cannot be trusted”, we uncover the im- manually identify online communities where problematic portance of conspiracy theories in debates, and we detect a speech occurs and annotate pieces of texts with their un- significant increase in the betweenness centrality for opin- derlying opinions. Therefore, this in-depth exploration faces ions questioning vaccines. Next, we observe the emergence two challenges — a significant amount of effort from re- of opinions over time (e.g., “2019-20 Australian bushfires searchers and the introduction of human bias in the pro- were caused by random arsonists”), popularized by embrac- cess of collecting information (Dixon, Liu, and Setchi 2016). ing core opinions (e.g., “Climate change crisis isn’t real”). While machine learning is known to help data exploration at The main contributions of this work include: scale (Lin and Kolcz 2012), a question remains: can we ac- • A mixed-method solution for bridging qualitative and celerate qualitative research and observations of online quantitative analysis, including the hosting platform behavior with machine learning algorithms? We tackle (Wikibase), the initial qualitative study, the unlabeled data this challenge by adopting the state-of-the-art text classifi- collection and the dataset augmentation with machine cation algorithm, RoBERTa (Vaswani et al. 2017; Liu et al. learning algorithms. 2019), with a human-in-the-loop learning setting. We first train the classifiers to identify problematic speech on post- • A dataset augmentation procedure that merges qualita- ings annotated by the qualitative researchers. Next, we de- tive approaches with machine-learning-based human-in- ploy three strategies to select unlabeled data. The active the-loop data augmentation methods. learning (Settles 2012) strategy selects the data for which • Case studies of the evolution of problematic online speech the classifiers are most uncertain. The top-confidence strat- in an Australian far-right Facebook group. egy selects data that classifiers are most certain about. The • Analysis of problematic opinions emergence and co- third strategy — the random strategy — randomly samples occurrence by applying quantitative methods on the col- from unlabeled data. The qualitative researchers then label lected raw data. the sampled data, we introduce the newly labeled data in the ontology, and repeat the procedure iteratively until the pre- dictive performance converges. 2 Methods The last research question relates to applying the qualita- This section details our methodology, which includes three tive mapping at scale and analyzing the dynamics of prob- distinct phases implemented sequentially in our study lematic opinions. The question is can we track the dynam- (shown schematically in Figure 1): the deep qualitative study ics of problematic opinions from online discussions us- (Section 2.1), the unlabeled data collection (Section 2.2), ing unlabeled data? To answer this question, we leverage and the dataset augmentation using machine learning (Sec- the opinion classifiers that we build on the augmented la- tion 2.3). beled set. First, we machine-label the opinions in a large set of postings spanning over a long time period. This al- 2.1 Qualitative Study lows us to apply the qualitative-defined coding schema to The data entry point of the deep qualitative study was a significantly larger sample of postings, therefore reducing known far-right community pages, after which we let our-
selves guided by users’ posting and linking, and recom- major online social media platforms, Facebook, Twitter, mendation algorithms. We employed unobtrusive observa- and Youtube, selected due to their large volume of dis- tion approaches to observe internet places where problem- cussion around the four chosen topics. During the period atic speech occurs, create field notes of rich, qualitative data, of December 2019 - January 2021, one team member un- construct a vocabulary of opinions to describe it, and gather dertook unobtrusive observation of discussions, collected and label data. field notes and digital artifacts (screenshots, linked data, photos, memes).Next, the qualitative researcher labeled the Deep qualitative studies. The team was initially commit- data with topics and opinions that she inferred from the ted to using digital ethnography as the methodological en- content. Finally, the collected data was double-coded by a try point for studying problematic online content. Ethnog- second-team member. Specifically, the second-team mem- raphy allows the object of the study to “emerge through ber first coded the data independently. Then the coded data fieldwork, as the significant identities and locations un- was reviewed, and disagreements were resolved through dis- fold” (Hine 2015), rather than predefining a set of users, cussions between the two. We note that an 81.0% inter- sites, or keywords to construct the dataset. We set out to annotated agreement was reported from the double-coding use a multi-sited ethnography approach, where we explored process. multiple social media platforms and groups to understand The first step of the qualitative study was to select the and map the emergence of discussions. This would allow the Internet places for conducting fieldwork — Internet place team to understand these objects by connection and move- is a generic term denoting where online discussions happen, ment rather than stasis (Marcus 1995; Walker 2010; Hine e.g., Facebook groups or Youtube video comment sections. 2015). Nonetheless, given the nature of the field and the In this study, we concentrate solely on publicly accessible communities studied in this project, where intrusion or par- places and identify relevant places using four approaches: ticipation of the researcher in community fora may have an undue influence on online discussions, we opted to un- • News stories identification. We use the search engines dertake unobtrusive observations of conversations in public of news content aggregators (e.g., Factiva, Media Cloud, pages, forums, groups, and sites. In this sense, our approach LexisNexis) to identify news stories containing keywords can be considered a deep qualitative study rather than an related to chosen topics in the titles. Next, we observe ethnographic analysis, which usually requires visibility and the user comments on the articles. Finally, we search so- participation of the researcher (participant observation) in cial media for postings that mention the news articles. the community being studied (Baym and Markham 2009). The keyword terms were constantly updated in these early However, the rest of the methodology introduced in this pa- stages of data collection and during iterative processes of per would work just as well with a proper ethnographic ap- coding the data, until a consolidated list was composed proach. (shown in Table 1). • Page monitoring. We actively monitor particular users, Problematic speech Problematic speech is online inter- pages, and Facebook groups found in the previous step. actions, speech, and artifacts that are inaccurate, mislead- We show the analysis of two such groups in Section 4. ing, inappropriately attributed, or altogether fabricated (Jack 2017). The concept is intentionally broad enough to en- • Cross-page discussion tracking. We follow links in post- compass concepts like misinformation, disinformation, and ings to discussions around the same topics on different hate speech. Misinformation is a type of communication Internet places, which we add to the list for tracking. where falsehoods are unintentionally shared by users (Jack • Exploiting recommendations. We explore social me- 2017, p. 2). Disinformation is information that is “deliber- dia pages and accounts recommended by the platforms’ ately false and misleading” (Jack 2017, p. 3) and intended recommender systems. While this introduces algorithmic to manipulate users to a particular opinion or worldview. bias in the sampling, this has been applied in prior lit- Finally, hate speech refers to “any form of communica- erature (Woolley and Howard 2016, 2018) to construct tion in which others are attacked, denigrated, or intimi- prospective pathways connecting like-minded users. dated based on religion, ethnicity, gender, national origin, or another group-based trait” (Warner and Hirschberg 2012; An ontology to map online problematic speech. We col- Hameleers, van der Meer, and Vliegenthart 2021). Prior lit- lect and store information about four types of entities: topics, erature suggests an intertwining of these forms of problem- postings, Internet places and opinions. The topics are prede- atic speech as efforts to denigrate outgroups are common to termined, while the latter three emerge from the qualitative online disinformation campaigns. Hameleers, van der Meer, study. Note that the postings and Internet places are data and Vliegenthart (2021) argue that “politically motivated, discovered using the methodology described above, and the partisan or ideological utterances in false information, such opinions are the vocabulary describing the data. Opinions as hate speech and incivility, may be an indicator of disin- are defined as ideas expressed by a user in a posting. We formation”. construct new opinions during the qualitative study and the data augmentation phase and alter old opinions through Study design. Our qualitative study concentrates on dis- merging or splitting. As a result, we obtain the opinions si- courses and conversations about four topics manually se- multaneously as the data is collected and labeled. lected apriori: 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, Climate Both the data (postings and Internet places) and the vo- change, COVID-19, and Vaccination. We focus on three cabulary (topics and opinions) are stored in an ontology, in
Table 1: Selected keywords for topics 1e+05 #postings (log) Topics Selected keywords bushfire, australian fires, arson, scottyfrommarketing, 1e+03 2019-20 Australian liarfromtheshiar, australiaburns, australiaburning, Overall bushfire season, itsthegreensfault, backburning, back burning, Facebook Climate change climate change, climate mergency, climate hoax, 1e+01 Twitter climate crisis, climate action now Youtube covid, coronavirus, covid-19, pandemic, n− 20 ct 19 ct 20 p− 19 −2 9 n− 19 p− 20 r− 20 − 0 b 20 l− 0 9 − 0 0 g− 19 g− 20 ec 1 ar 2 Ju 202 ov 1 ay 2 02 Covid-19, world health organization, vaccine, social distancing, Ju 20 O 20 O 20 Se 20 D −20 Ja 0 Se 20 Ap 20 M −20 Fe 20 N 20 M 20 Au 20 Au 20 −2 − l− Vaccination quarantine, plandemic, chinavirus, wuhan, stayhome, Ju MadeinChina, ChinaLiedPeopleDied, 5G, chinacentric Figure 2: Weekly volumes of collected postings overall (dashed) and from Facebook, Twitter and Youtube (solid). Resource Description Framework (RDF) format (Brickley, Guha, and Layman 1999). Each entry is a triplet linking two entities — e.g., a posting contains an opinion, or an opinion is linked to a topic. If, for example, a posting contains more UN wants to make Opinion classifier of Opinion: “Climate change is a UN Australia an Topic: topic “COVID-19” than one opinion, we use multiple triplets, one for each rela- experimental state for COVID-19 hoax” tion. We use Wikibase1 as the project’s collaborative appli- climate change. We the people must NOT accept this bullshit anymore cation for data input and exploration. Wikibase offers a user from them or our government. Period! interface to enter new information and connect to existing Opinion: “Climate Opinion classifier of data (e.g., a new posting expressing an existing opinion); a Topic: “Climate change” topic ”Climate change” change crisis isn't real” navigational tool to explore the links connecting the data; and an API to search and access the data based on SPARQL … … … queries. Postings Topic classifiers Opinion classifiers Opinion labels 2.2 Unlabeled Data Collection Figure 3: An example of the classification of unlabeled post- One of the shortcomings of the deep qualitative study is ings with the topic classifiers and opinion classifiers. the limited representativeness of the gathered data. This sec- tion describes the collection of postings at scale via keyword search. we want to leverage the previously collected unlabeled data For each of the four topics, the qualitative study identi- to create a labeled dataset with better diversity compared to fied a set of keywords (shown in Table 1). The keywords the data issued from the qualitative study. Second, given the were selected manually based on their frequencies and im- size of our unlabeled dataset, we want to maintain the man- portances in qualitative studies. Due to the overlap in the ual labeling effort as limited as possible. We opt to enrich messaging between Australian bushfires and climate change the dataset iteratively by involving annotation experts and on one side, and Covid-19 and vaccination on the other side, machine classifiers. We denote the labeled and unlabeled we present them in two groups. We use these keywords to datasets as Li and Ui , respectively, where i indicates the it- search and crawl postings and comments from Facebook eration number and i = 0 is the initial dataset labeled via (using Crowdtangle2 ) and Twitter (using the Twitter com- qualitative analysis. mercial APIs). We further use a customized crawler to gather Two levels of classifiers. Our schema has two levels of comments from specific public Facebook pages and groups. connections: a posting is associated with one or more opin- Finally, we use the YouTube API to obtain comments from ions, and opinions are connected to topics, where the opin- the Youtube videos mentioned in the Facebook postings. ions are constructed via qualitative studies in Section 2.1. We obtained a total of 13, 321, 813 postings — 11, 437, 009 Given this hierarchical structure between opinion and topic Facebook postings, 1, 793, 927 tweets and 90, 877 Youtube labels, we deploy two levels of binary classifiers comments. Our dataset extends from July 2019 until October 2020, and Figure 2 shows the weekly volumes of collected • At the first level, for a posting x we construct the topic postings. Note that, for Twitter, we acquired data relating to x) (yˆt ∈ {0, 1}) which determine classifiers yˆt = ft,i (x two time periods: Dec. 2019 – Feb. 2020 (during the 2019- whether the posting x is about the topic t, with the clas- 2020 Australian bushfire season) and March-May 2020 (the sifier trained on Li . Note that we build one classifier for starting phase of Covid-19). each topic, and a posting can be associated with multiple topics. It can also have no topic when yˆt = 0, ∀t = 1..4. 2.3 Dataset Augmentation These are off-topic postings. Here, we describe the process of augmenting the labeled • At the second level, we construct a multi-label opinion dataset. The augmentation process has two mandates. First, classifier for each topic trained with only the opinions as- sociated with a given topic. We note that the opinoin clas- 1 https://wikiba.se/ sifiers are only trained and applied for quantitative analy- 2 https://www.crowdtangle.com/ sis in Section 5.
We present a classification example in Figure 3 where an Table 2: Cross-validation performance comparison of differ- unlabeled posting is first determined to be about Climate ent classification models on labeled data L0 . Macro accuracy change by the topic classifiers and is then tagged with the and F1 scores are averaged over all topics. opinion Climate change is a UN hoax. We argue that the pro- posed scheme with two levels of classifiers is more robust to Random Forest SVM XGBoost RoBERTa offtopic postings, as the multi-label opinion classifier is pre- Macro Accuracy 0.791 0.775 0.779 0.800 sented only with relevant postings. Furthermore, a posting Macro F1 0.782 0.768 0.768 0.800 can be associated with multiple topics and opinions. Unlabeled data sampling. The process of retraining clas- Table 3: Statistics of the labeled datasets L0 and L7 in topics sifiers takes non-trivial times, especially for deep learning and opinions. based classifiers, whereas it is desired to maintain continu- Aus. Bushfire Climate change Covid-19 Vaccination Off-topic Total unique ous labeling time windows for the coders. Therefore, at each L0 189 387 263 220 0 614 #posts iteration, we select a batch of unlabeled postings for manual L7 287 592 477 335 480 1381 annotation to augment the labeled data. Within each post- L0 16 31 29 22 / 65 #opin. ing batch, we aim to balance the exploitation of previously L7 16 33 34 26 / 71 labeled data (i.e., the classifiers trained at the previous itera- tion) and the exploration of unlabeled data. We employ three strategies to select postings at the current iteration, Xi Iterations and convergence. We obtain a set of newly an- • Active learning strategy selects for labeling the post- notated postings at the end of each complete iteration that ings of which the classifiers are least certain of. It im- includes data sampling, expert annotation, and re-training proves classification performance by selecting unlabeled the classifiers. For each iteration, we compute the expected data around the decision boundary of the learned clas- generalization error via cross-validation, and we evaluate the sifier (Settles 2012). Specifically, we adopt uncertainty test error on a dedicated test dataset. We note that the test sampling in our experiments where uncertainty is defined dataset was randomly sampled from the same unlabeled data as (Tran, Ong, and Wolf 2018): and annotated before the dataset augmentation. It is kept x) = 1 − p(ŷ | x ; ft,i ) u(x (1) fixed across iterations and never used in training. We then re- peat the dataset augmentation process for several iterations where ŷ is the predicted label of the candidate x under until the convergence of two indicators: classifier ft,i . We choose candidates with the highest un- • The first indicator is the difference between cross- certainty values and denote this set as XiA . validation error and test set error. An increasingly smaller • Top confidence strategy chooses from unlabeled data error indicates that the classifiers are more representative where trained classifiers produce the highest confidence of the larger, unlabeled dataset. scores, i.e., p(ŷ | x ; ft,i ). This strategy enriches our • The second indicator is the gain of performance on the dataset with data related to the chosen topics, allowing test set between two iterations.A decreasing gain between us to deepen the qualitative study. We denote this subset iterations shows that the marginal utility of new annota- as XiT . tions is increasingly smaller. • Random sampling strategy favors a completely random exploration by uniformly selecting a set of postings from The iterative process stops when an insignificant gain is the unlabeled data. Although there is a high likelihood of made between two consecutive iterations. selecting off-topic postings, the strategy allows uncover- ing discussions of interest that may lie far from the initial 3 Dataset Augmentation Results qualitative analysis. Similar ideas have been employed in This section presents the prediction setup and the results ob- other fields — e.g., in reinforcement learning, a probabil- tained for our proposed human-in-the-loop dataset augmen- ity of is usually reserved for the Q-learning algorithm tation. to explore random actions (Mnih et al. 2013). We denote this subset as XiR . 3.1 Experimental Setups Expert annotation. At each iteration, the same team Textual classifier selection. We predict the topics and members, who performed the qualitative analysis, label the opinions of postings using textual classifiers. We test four postings returned by the sampling process (Section 2.3). The such classifiers. The first is the state-of-the-art deep learn- predicted labels from the classifiers are hidden during man- ing method, RoBERTa (Vaswani et al. 2017; Liu et al. ual labeling. This ensures that the human decisions are not 2019), which achieves the best performance. The other three affected by the algorithmic predictions. The human experts are traditional classifiers — including Random Forest (RF) inspect both the text and original contexts of given post- (Breiman 2001), Support Vector Machine (SVM) (Chang ings — such as the complete discussions and other meta- and Lin 2011) and XGBoost (Chen and Guestrin 2016) — data (e.g., the videos from Youtube) — before choosing an which use an n-gram-based vectorial representation, where existing opinion (or constructing a new opinion) to label a features are weighted with Term Frequency Inverse Docu- posting as described in Section 2.1. ment Frequency (TF-IDF) (Rajaraman and Ullman 2011).
Accuracy F1 We use the implementation of these algorithms from the 1.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Python libraries scikit-learn (Pedregosa et al. 2011) and 0.9 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.6 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.8 ● ● transformers (Wolf et al. 2020). 0.7 ● ● ● ● ● 2019−20 Australian bushfire season climate change 0.4 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● We compare the prediction performance of these models 0.6 ● ● ● ● Covid−19 vaccination 0.2 ● ● on the L0 labeled dataset (issued from the qualitative study). 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 We show in Table 2 the macro accuracy and F1 scores ob- Batch No. tained via 5-fold cross-validations. The hyper-parameters are selected via the nested 5-fold cross-validation and ran- (a) Macro Accuracy Macro F1 dom search. Visibly, RoBERTa outperforms all other models ● ● ● 0.8 ● ● ● 0.9 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● in both macro accuracy and macro F1 scores. Therefore, in ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.7 ● ● ● ● 0.8 ● ● ● 0.6 ● the rest of this paper, we employ RoBERTa for classifying ● ● ● Cross−validation evaluation ● Evaluated on testset 0.5 ● ● ● ● and sampling unlabeled data. 0.7 ● HITL ML strategies random postings 0.4 ● ● ● ● ● ● 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Iteration setups. The test dataset Xtest used for evalua- tion contains 114 labeled Facebook postings. Xtest is only Batch No. used in the convergence evaluation and is kept fixed between (b) iterations. To keep bounded the human annotation effort, we limit each iteration to 100 postings. Specifically, topic clas- Figure 4: Convergence of topic classifier performances over sifiers are used for sampling unlabeled data where, for each seven iterations. (a) Evaluation by topics on test set and (b) of the four topic, we sample |Xi | = |XiA | + |XiT | + |XiR | = macro-aggregated over all topics on test set and via cross- 10 + 10 + 5 = 25 posts from Ui−1 . Note that XiA , XiT validation. and XiR are the sets of samples selected at iteration i using the three strategies introduces in Section 2.3. Also note that identical postings may be selected multiple times for differ- in the left panel, and F1 score on the right panel), over iter- ent topics. ations 0 to 7. The solid lines in Figure 4b show the perfor- In total, we conduct 7 iterations of augmentation until we mance indicators macro-averaged over topics, together with observe convergence in classification performance on Xtest the cross-validation generalization error (see the iterations (see convergence analysis in Section 3.2). The first 4 itera- and convergence discussion in Section 2.3). tions sampled only Facebook postings as this is the promi- All indicators show that prediction performance improves nent source in our dataset and most used social media in over subsequent iterations, with the topic 2019-20 Aus- Australia (Newman et al. 2020). After the 5th iteration, we tralian bushfire season demonstrating the fastest growth. introduced the other two data sources, Twitter and Youtube. Both accuracy and F1 scores on the test data converge fast 3.2 Augmentation Results in the first 3 − 4 iterations, while improvements from the subsequent iterations are limited. This suggests a reduced Augmented dataset statistics. We compare in Table 3 the marginal utility of the later iterations. Notably, the perfor- number of postings and opinions between the dataset con- mance gain is null between iterations 6 and 7, suggesting structed by the qualitative analysis (L0 ) and the final labeled that the procedure has converged. Consequently, we stopped dataset after the seventh iteration (L7 ). L7 contains 1, 381 the data augmentation process after the seventh iteration. postings and 71 opinions, which is more than double those In particular, the cross-validation performance is stable of L0 (614 postings and 65 opinions). We note that Climate across iterations. This is expected, as the classifiers learn change is the most prevalent topic in the dataset (592 post- from the same data on which the generalization is estimated ings in L7 ) while Austalian bushfire is the least (287 post- — i.e., the classifiers are representative for the data they ings). were trained on. However, the difference between the test Emergence of new opinions. During the data augmen- set performance and cross-validation performance is indica- tation process, the experts continuously evolved the opin- tive of the representativity over the entire dataset. The cross- ion set in addition to labeling new data. For example, opin- validation accuracy is consistently lower than the test set ac- ions such as “Covid-19 is a plague sent by God” were de- curacy because the test data is more imbalanced than labeled tected and reinforced by the data sampling strategies. Simi- data. The cross-validation F1 is more optimistic than the test larly, the data sampled uncovered a longer duration of opin- set F1. Finally, the difference between the two stabilizes for ions than the range explored by the experts in the qualita- the later iterations, further suggesting the convergence. tive study. These provided the qualitative researchers with a long-term perspective about how opinions emerge tempo- Baseline comparison. In addition, we compare the dis- rally (see more detailed analysis in Section 5). Overall, Ta- cussed sampling strategies with a baseline scenario where ble 3 shows that 6 new opinions have emerged between L0 we code an equal amount of postings that were all randomly and L7 . We refer to Appendix A for a complete list of opin- sampled. We then fit classifiers with these random post- ions and their numbers at L0 and L7 . ings in iterations and present the prediction performance on the same test set as a dotted line in Figure 4b. The macro Convergence analysis. Figure 4a shows the prediction accuracy and F1 scores show gaps between the proposed performance on the test set Xtest , for each topic (accuracy method and the baseline labeling scenario, indicating the ad-
vantage of applying the chosen data augmentation strategies, of these comments. The language used was similar to com- especially the active learning strategy (Tran, Ong, and Wolf ments that we observed on numerous far-right nationalist 2018). pages at the time of the bushfires. These comments are usu- ally text-based, employing emojis to denote emotions, and 4 Case Studies sometimes being mocking or provocative in tone. Notewor- thy for this commenting thread is the 50/50 split in the num- In this section, we present a case study of Facebook posts ber of members posting in favor of action on climate change from an Australian public page. The page shifts between (on one side) and those who posted anti-Greens and anti- early 2020 (2019-2020 Australian bushfire season) and late climate change science posts and memes (on the other side). 2020 (COVID-19 crises) from being a moderate-right group The two sides aligned strongly with political partisanship for discussion around climate change to a far-right extremist — either with Liberal/National coalition (climate change group for conspiracy theories. deniers) or Labor/Green (climate change believers) parties. We focus on a targeted sample of 2 postings and com- This is rather unusual for pages classified as far-right. menting threads from one Australian Facebook page we classified as “far-right” based on the content on the page. We observed trolling practices between the climate We have anonymized the users in Figure 5 to avoid re- change deniers and believers, which often descend into identification. The first posting and comment thread (see flame wars — i.e., online “firefights that take place Figure 5a) was collected on Jan 10, 2020, and responded between disembodied combatants on electronic bulletin to the Australian bushfire crisis that began in late 2019 and boards” (Bukatman et al. 1994). The result is a boosted en- was still ongoing in January 2020. It contains an ambivalent gagement on the post but also the frustration and confusion text-based provocation that references disputes in the com- of community members and lurkers who came to the discus- munity regarding the validity of climate change and climate sions to become informed or debate rationally on key differ- science. ences between the two positions. They often even become targeted, victimized, and baited by trolls on both sides of the The second posting and comment thread (see Figure 5c) partisan divide. The opinions expressed by deniers in com- was collected from the same page in September 2020, menting sections range from skepticism regarding climate months after the bushfire crisis had abated. At that time, change science to plain denial. Deniers also regard a range a new crisis was energizing and connecting the far-right of targets as embroiled in a climate change conspiracy to de- groups in our dataset — i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic and ceive the public, such as The Greens and their environmental the government interventions to curb the spread of the virus. policy, in some cases the government, the United Nations, The post is different in style compared to the first. It is and climate change celebrities like David Attenborough and image-based instead of text-based and highly emotive, with Greta Thunberg. These figures are blamed for either exag- a photo collage bringing together images of prison inmates gerating risks of climate change or creating a climate change with iron masks on their faces (top row) juxtaposed to people hoax to increase the influence of the UN on domestic gov- wearing face masks during COVID-19 (bottom row). The ernments or to increase domestic governments’ social con- image references the public health orders issued during Mel- trol over citizens. bourne’s second lockdown and suggests that being ordered to wear masks is an infringement of citizen rights and free- Both coders noted that flame wars between these oppos- doms, similar to dehumanizing restraints used on prisoners. ing personas contained very few links to external media. To analyze reactions to the posts, two researchers used Where links were added, they often seemed disconnected a deductive analytical approach to separately code and to from the rest of the conversation and were from users whose analyze the commenting threads — see Figure 5b for com- profiles suggested they believed in more radical conspir- ments of the first posting, and Figures 5d and 5e for com- acy theories. One such example is “geo-engineering” (see ments on the second posting. Conversations were also induc- Fig. 5b). Its adherents believe that solar geo-engineering tively coded for emerging themes. During the analysis, we programs designed to combat climate change are secretly observed qualitative differences in the types of content users used by a global elite to depopulate the world through ster- posted, interactions between commenters, tone and language ilization or to control and weaponize the weather. of debate, linked media shared in the commenting thread, Nonetheless, apart from the random comments that hi- and the opinions expressed. The rest of this section further jack the thread, redirecting users to external “alternative” details these differences. To ensure this was not a random oc- news sites and Twitter, and the trolls who seem to delight in currence, we tested the exemplar threads against field notes victimizing unsuspecting victims, the discussion was pretty collected on the group during the entire study. We also used healthy. There are many questions, rational inquiries, and Facebook’s search function within pages to find a sample debates between users of different political persuasion and of posts from the same period and which dealt with similar views on climate change. This, however, changes in the span topics. After this analysis, we can confidently say that key of only a couple of months. changes occured in the group between the bushfire crisis and COVID-19, that we detail next. Exemplar 2 — posting and commenting thread. We ob- serve a shift in the comment section of the post collected Exemplar 1 — climate change skepticism. To explore during the second wave of the COVID pandemic (Figure 5c) this transformation in more depth, we analyzed comments — which coincided with government laws mandating the scraped on the first posting — Fig. 5b shows a small sample public to wear masks and stay at home in Victoria, Aus-
(a) (c) (d) (e) (b) Figure 5: Examples of postings and comment threads from a public Facebook page from two periods of time early 2020 (a) and late 2020 (b)-(e), which show a shift from climate change debates to extremist and far-right messaging. tralia. There emerges much more extreme far-right content well-established antisemitic blood libel conspiracy theories, that converges with anti-vaccination opinions and content. which foster beliefs that a powerful global elite is controlling We also note a much higher prevalence of conspiracy theo- the decisions of organizations such as WHO and are respon- ries often implicating racialized targets. This is exemplified sible for the vaccine rollout and public health orders related in the comments on the second post (Figures 5d and 5e) to the pandemic. The QAnon conspiracy is also influenced where Islamophobia and antisemitism are confidently as- by Bill Gates’ Microchips conspiracy theory, i.e., the theory serted alongside anti-mask rhetoric. These comments con- that the WHO and the Bill Gates Foundation global vaccine sider face masks similar to the religious head coverings worn programs are used to inject tracking microchips into people. by some Muslim women, which users describe as “oppres- These conspiracy theories have, since COVID-19, con- sive” and “silencing”. In this way, anti-maskers cast women nected formerly separate communities and discourses, unit- as a distinct, sympathetic marginalized demographic. How- ing existing anti-vaxxer communities, older demographics ever, this is enacted alongside the racialization and demo- who are mistrustful of technology, far-right communities nization of Islam as an oppressive religion. suspicious of global and national left-wing agendas, com- Given the extreme racialization of anti-mask rhetoric, munities protesting against 5G mobile networks (for fear some commenters contest these positions, arguing that the that they will brainwash, control, or harm people), as well page is becoming less an anti-Scott Morrison page (Aus- as generating its own followers out of those anxious during tralia’s Prime Minister at the time) and changing into a page the 2020 onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We detect and that harbors “far-right dickheads”. This questioning is ac- describe some of these opinion dynamics in the next section. tively challenged by far-right commenters and conspiracy theorists on the page, who regarded pro-mask users and the 5 Opinion Analysis Scott Morrison government as “puppets” being manipulated This section first examines the relative importance of opin- by higher forces (see Figure 5e). ions in online discussions, obtained from a large sample of This indicates a significant change on the page’s member- machine-labeled postings. This allows the application of the ship towards the extreme-right, who employs more extreme qualitative-defined coding schema to a significantly larger forms of racialized imagery, with more extreme opinion be- sample of postings, reducing the unavoidable selection bias ing shared. Conspiracy theorists become more active and of the deep qualitative study. Next, we study the dynamics vocal, and they consistently challenge the opinions of both of opinion co-occurrences. We note that, due to large over- center conservative and left-leaning users. This is evident in laps in posting times and similarities in topics, the analy- the final two comments in Figure 5e, which reflect QAnon sis of opinions in this section is conducted on two topic style conspiracy theories and language. Public health orders groups: 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, climate change, to wear masks are being connected to a conspiracy that all and Covid-19, vaccination (also shown in Table 1). of these decisions are directed by a secret network of global Experimental setups. After completing the last iteration of Jewish elites, who manipulate the pandemic to increase their dataset augmentation (L7 ), we have trained topic and opin- power and control. This rhetoric intersects with the contem- ion classifiers (see Section 2.3). We apply these classifiers to porary “QAnon” conspiracy theory, which evolved from the the complete unlabeled dataset, which contains 22, 965, 816 “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory. They also heavily draw on postings in total. The vast majority of these (21, 266, 038)
1.00 Mainstream media cannot be trusted a Conspiracy opinions co-occurred with it. The edges are weighted by the Covid−19 is a scam/plan of the elites a Other number of postings in which their connected node opinions 0.75 Climate change crisis isn't real co-occurred. Frequency (#postings) 5G/smart tech is unsafe/a scam/ We first investigate the evolution of opinion co- a way of controlling people 0.50 occurrences. In Figure 7, we plot the daily proportions of China is responsible for Covid−19 Covid-19 is a government tool for weights of each edge among all edges between September 0.25 surveillance & control of citizens 2019 and January 2020. We manually selected six edges (i.e., opinion pairs) to represent three types of temporal dy- 0.00 namics: Opinion • A continuous and relatively strong association between prevalent opinions — “Climate change crisis isn’t real” Figure 6: The usage frequency of each of opinions in a large and “Climate change is a UN hoax”, which not notably is sample of machine-labeled data shows a long-tail distribu- a conspiracy theory. tion. Four of the top six opinions endorse a conspiracy the- ory (shown in gray). • Associations with declining relative frequencies — “Greta Thunberg should not have a platform or influence as a climate...” and “Women and girls don’t deserve a are off-topic — i.e., with no opinion associated. This is ex- voice in the public sphere”. pected given the broad keyword sampling of our unlabeled • Rising associations such as “bushfires and climate change dataset. The remainder of 1, 699, 778 postings are labeled not related” and “bushfires were caused by random arson- with at least one opinion, and 313, 720 postings were asso- ists”; and also the conspiracy theory associations between ciated with more than one opinion. This creates 2, 089, 336 “United Nations is corrupt” and “United Nations want to posting-opinion relations, which we use in the rest of this be the global ruling government”. section to analyze the dynamics of opinions. We manually identify the opinion labels that relate to conspiracy theories Given the theoretical importance of conspiracy theories and we discuss them in the experimental results. and our observations in Figure 6, we plot the temporal vari- ation of three centrality measures (betweenness, closeness, 5.1 Opinion Frequency Distribution and node degrees) of the opinion co-occurrence network for We show in Figure 6 the frequency distribution of opinions conspiracy and non-conspiracy opinions in Figure 8. We also in the machine-labeled data. Unsurprisingly (in hindsight), compare it to the attention dedicated to the bushfire story the size distribution for opinions is long-tailed, commonly during the same period by the Australian news media. The emerging in online measurements. This translates into a rela- news coverage ratio is crawled from Media Cloud (Roberts tively small number of opinions monopolizing the online de- et al. 2021). At times conspiracy opinions can achive on av- bate. Perhaps more surprisingly, most of the prevalent opin- erage a higher betweenness score. In the online conversa- ions are linked to conspiracy theories; four among the top tion during the Australia bushfires, a significantly higher be- six most popular opinions are conspiracy theories, includ- tweenness in September and then again in November during ing “Covid-19 is a scam/plan of the elites” (2nd most fre- the first surge in news media attention. This suggests that quent opinion), “5G/smart tech is unsafe/a scam/a way of conspiracy opinions, if not among the most frequently de- controlling people” (4th), “China is responsible for Covid- tected, are still expressed in conjunction with a high number 19” (5th), and “Covid-19 is a government tool to increase of other opinions, especially fringe and peripheral opinions. the powers of the state and surveillance/control of citizens” It also shows that conspiracy theories are well suited to ex- (6th). This showcases the advantages of our mixed-method plain and rationalize several contested opinions. approach: the qualitative study identified the importance of Eventually, in Figure 9, we map the co-occurrence net- conspiracy theories in the online debate; still, it could not as- work from posts published over 14 days in late September sess the scope of their relative importance. We further show 2019, i.e., the period when the betweenness for conspiracy in (Appendix 2021) the daily relative frequency of top opin- opinions is at peak. This figure explains the ambivalent net- ions. work role that conspiracy opinions can play: we first note a conspiracy opinion with relatively high degree and fre- 5.2 Dynamics and Centrality in Opinion quency — “Climate change is a UN hoax” —, while we Networks also observe the presence of low degree but high between- ness conspiracy opinions at the periphery of the network — It is common when postings express multiple opinions. Such “Bushfires linked to secret elites’ secret technology (chem- co-occurred opinions help identify central opinions, which trails, HAARP, HSRN, geoengineering)”, “bushfires delib- usually spawn new emerging opinions. Here we explore this erately lit to promote a climate change agenda” and “Aus- by building an opinion co-occurrence network in the online tralia should not be a member of the United Nations”. conversation of the topic 2019-20 Australian bushfire sea- son. In the network, nodes are the 27 opinions captured dur- ing the bushfire conversation, while edges are present when 6 Related Work both opinions are detected in the same postings. The node Several datasets (Wang 2017; Shu et al. 2018; Hasan, Alam, degree of a given opinion node represents the number of and Adnan 2020) on problematic speeches have been made
2019−2020 Australian bushfires and climate change not related 2019−2020 Australian bushfires and climate change not related Climate change crisis isn't real 2019−2020 Australian bushfires were caused by random arsonists Climate change crisis isn't real Climate change is a UN hoax 0.10 0.05 0.00 Climate change crisis isn't real Greta Thunberg should not have a platform or influence as a climate change activist United Nations is corrupt Mainstream media cannot be trusted Women and girls don't deserve a voice in the public sphere United Nations want to be the global ruling government 0.10 0.05 0.00 p ec p ec p ec ov ov ov b b b n n n ct ct ct Se Se Se Fe Fe Fe Ja Ja Ja O O O N N N D D D Figure 7: Daily proportions of edge weights of six selected co-occurred opinions pairs. 30 betweenness available recently. Among these, Wang (2017); Shu et al. 20 (2018) crawled and used labels from existing fact-checking 10 0 sites (e.g., POLITIFACT3 ), whereas Hasan, Alam, and Ad- nan (2020) employed an active learning component in their closeness 0.020 0.015 pipeline with a goal of maximizing the accuracy of fake 0.010 news detection. Conspiracy 3000 News story ratio of the bushfire Such HITL machine learning algorithms have been degree 2000 Other widely applied for building datasets in various applications, 1000 including sentiment analysis (Mozafari et al. 2014), com- 0.25 0.20 puter vision (Vijayanarasimhan and Grauman 2011) and news ratio 0.15 0.10 medical image classification (Hoi et al. 2006). Wang et al. 0.05 (2021) provide a comprehensive review of applying HITL 0.00 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 methods to natural language processing tasks, in which they stress the importance of designing both quantitative and Figure 8: Temporal evolution of statistics of the opinion co- qualitative methods to evaluate human feedback for com- occurrence network and news coverage ratios from Media plex feedback types. In particular, Chen et al. (2018) propose Cloud (Roberts et al. 2021). to identify ambiguity in qualitative coding via active learn- ing, which is the most relevant work to ours. In this paper, Children should not speak Climate change isn't man we extend the method by introducing two other strategies to as authorities on themselves or their world, because made balance exploration and exploitation. they are children Overall, our study differs from prior works by highlight- Climate change is a UN United Nations is corrupt ing the benefits of deploying HITL algorithms to accelerate ● qualitative studies on online problematic speeches. The aug- 2019−2020 Australian bushfires ● hoax Women and girls don't ● deserve a voice in the mented data in this paper exposes us to a richer context of deliberately lit to promote public sphere ● a climate change agenda problematic discussions where we can identify trajectories Greta Thunberg should of opinion evolutions (in Section 5). not have a platform or Climate change crisis influence as a climate isn't real Australia should not be change activist a member of the United 7 Conclusion ● Nations ● In conclusion, this work proposed a solution that fills the gap 2019−2020 Australian bushfires linked to secret elites' between qualitative and quantitative analysis of problematic ● technology (chemtrails, online speech. We constructed an ontology (using Wikibase) HAARP, HSRN, geoengineering) ● which was initially populated through a qualitative study. ● Conspiracy Other The latter emerged from both the vocabulary of annotations 0 25 50 75100125 (the opinions expressed in topics) and collected labeled data from three online social network platforms (Facebook, Twit- Figure 9: A visualization of the co-occurrence network in ter, and Youtube). Next, we collected a large dataset of social late September 2020 — node sizes and colors indicate the media data using keyword search. Finally, we augmented the degrees and betweenness values. 3 https://www.politifact.com
labeled dataset using a human-in-the-loop machine learning Brickley, D.; Guha, R. V.; and Layman, A. 1999. Resource algorithm. We presented two in-detail case studies with ob- description framework (RDF) schema specification . servations of problematic online speech which evolved on an Bruns, A.; Harrington, S.; and Hurcombe, E. 2020. Australian far-right Facebook group. Using our quantitative “Corona? 5G? or both?”: the dynamics of COVID-19/5G approach, we analyzed how problematic opinions emerge conspiracy theories on Facebook. Media International Aus- over time and how they co-occur. tralia . Limitations. The present study has several limitations, Bukatman, S.; Laidlaw, M.; Schwenger, P.; and Sobchack, which we group into data and methodological limitations. V. 1994. Flame wars: the discourse of cyberculture. Duke The data limitations are mainly related to the human la- University Press. beling bias, considered platforms and posting accessibility. Chang, C.-C.; and Lin, C.-J. 2011. LIBSVM: a library for The initial qualitative study is conducted by the team mem- support vector machines. ACM TIST . bers, which may suffer from human labeling bias. Second, this study concentrates on three platforms (Facebook, Twit- Chen, N.-C.; Drouhard, M.; Kocielnik, R.; Suh, J.; and ter, and Youtube), and Facebook makes most of our data Aragon, C. R. 2018. Using machine learning to support sample. However, all three are mainstream platforms; prob- qualitative coding in social science: Shifting the focus to am- lematic speech also occurs outside these platforms, and fu- biguity. TiiS . ture work would need to account for platforms like 8chan or Chen, T.; and Guestrin, C. 2016. Xgboost: A scalable tree gab. Last, our study only leverages public postings — we do boosting system. In KDD. not access the private conversations for technical and ethical reasons. Colley, T.; and Moore, M. 2020. The challenges of studying We mention four methodological limitations. First, the 4chan and the Alt-Right:“Come on in the water’s fine”. New quality of the classifier is inferior to any human coder. Yet, Media & Society . this is a marginal problem when the goal is not to correctly Dixon, A.; Liu, Y.; and Setchi, R. 2016. Computer- label each posting but instead to capture patterns across a Aided Ethnography in Engineering Design. In IDETC-CIE. large number of postings. Second, the definition of the set ASME. of Internet sources where the data collection occurs remains critical in determining how representative the sample still is; Glaeser, E. L.; and Sunstein, C. R. 2009. Extremism and a larger set of Internet places might not address the selection social learning. Journal of Legal Analysis . bias (if they are all selected the same way). Third, the em- Hameleers, M.; van der Meer, T.; and Vliegenthart, R. 2021. ployed sampling strategies for augmenting the dataset may Civilized truths, hateful lies? Incivility and hate speech in suffer from the sampling bias. Last, by design, the classi- false information–evidence from fact-checked statements in fiers we have deployed cannot identify opinions that were the US. Information, Communication & Society . not identified during the qualitative study. Future research Hasan, M. S.; Alam, R.; and Adnan, M. A. 2020. Truth or could apply dynamic predictive models designed to capture Lie: Pre-emptive Detection of Fake News in Different Lan- the label distribution shift and construct an active set of la- guages Through Entropy-based Active Learning and Multi- bels. model Neural Ensemble. In ASONAM. IEEE. References Hine, C. 2015. Ethnography for the Internet. Routledge. Appendix. 2021. Appendix: Slipping to the Extreme: A Hoi, S. C.; Jin, R.; Zhu, J.; and Lyu, M. R. 2006. Batch Mixed Method to Explain How Extreme Opinions Infiltrate mode active learning and its application to medical image Online Discussions. 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