Six Nations Preview - Jolly Lock

Six Nations Preview
Welcome to my preview of the Six Nations where I will guide you through one of the most exciting tournament’s in
the rugby calendar.

Last year’s tournament saw a dominant Ireland side crowned champions winning all their matches and thus doing
the Grand Slam in the process. What made this achievement even more impressive was that included victories
away from home against England and France. With that in mind and with the knowledge that they will face both
England and France at home this year, they are rightfully a very strong favourite to win the trophy. That being said
they will have to travel to Cardiff to play a Welsh side now ranked 3rd in the World and to Edinburgh to face a
Scotland who are formidable at home, so it is far from a slam dunk. The deeper I dive into the squads of each
nation and sort my way through their comparative strengths and weaknesses the more clear it’s becoming of how
closely contested this competition should be with no results being guaranteed, excluding Italy who I expect to lose
every match despite the progress they have made in recent years. What will follow is a detailed overview of each
team’s squad selection, their current form, players to watch and an assessment of where I think they are likely to
finish in the final table.

Team Previews:

Ireland:

Squad Overview:
The reigning champions come into the tournament fresh off a home victory over New Zealand in their last
competitive home match and field a formidable squad looking to defend the Grand Slam they achieved with victory
over England at Twickenham. Reigning World Player of the Year Johnny Sexton is the jewel in the crown of a
dominant back line also featuring a red hot Jacob Stockdale who contributed 7 of the team’s 20 tries scored last
year. Complimented by an extremely strong forward pack involving the likes of Lion’s heroes CJ Stander, Tadhg
Furlong, Sean O’Brien and Peter O’Mahony it is easy to see why they are a heavy favourite to retain their title. Of
some concern though maybe the injury situation. Connor Murray may be out at scrum half and his usual back up
Luke Mcgrath is unavailable with a knee injury, Sexton may also be unavailable for the England game. In the
forwards Tadhg Beirne is out with a knee injury and Ian Henderson will also miss the England game with a finger
injury.

Recent Form:
Played 15: Won 14 Lost 1. Last 5: Won 5 Lost 0

Fixtures Overview:
Ireland will face England at home before travelling to Murrayfield to play Scotland, they then face Italy in Rome
before returning home to play France in Dublin. Their tournament concludes with a trip to Cardiff to face Wales.
Despite not having to face England at Twickenham or France in Paris this is far from an easy ride for Ireland to
retain their trophy, I expect them to lose 1 game along the way, most likely in Cardiff against Wales. If injuries
cause them to lose the opener to England it will be an uphill battle from there to keep their grip on the trophy.

Ultimately I envision them winning 4 games and whilst I’m not ruling out a points difference deciding scenario
similar to that which saw them claim the title in 2014 and 2015, I see them doing enough to be crowned back to
back champions.

Predicted Finishing Position: 1st

Players to Watch:
Johnny Sexton, Jacob Stockdale and Joey Carbery.
The first 2 are obvious, the reigning World Player of the Year and last year’s top try scorer, but the class of Sexton
can never be overlooked, anyone who saw his drop goal to beat France in Paris at the start of the last campaign will
understand the mixture of brilliance and delivery under pressure that has become his staple. Stockdale who lead
the tournament with 7 tries last year, 3 more than any other player comes into the tournament in superb form for
Ulster and will be a constant threat to the scoresheet. Should Sexton be unavailable early through injury expect
Joey Carbery to fill in adequately as he’s been playing superbly in Munster’s advancement through the European
Cup, fully justifying his decision to leave Sexton’s shadow at Leinster to join their fierce rivals.

England:

Squad Overview:

Unlike last year’s nightmare injury scenario, England have been able to name nearly a full strength squad for what
is sure to be a gruelling campaign, that they hope will serve as excellent preparation for the World Cup in October,
a tournament they have realistic desires of winning. A healthy forward pack featuring the influential Vunipola
brothers Billy and Maiko, especially Billy who’s ball carrying at 8 is crucial to attacks getting beyond the gain line in
the opposing half and with the strengths of Maro Itoje and Joe Launchbury, England look set to mount a more
successful campaign than last years dismal defence of a trophy they won in both 2016 and 2017. The notable
omission in the front row is that of joint captain Dylan Hartley through injury though there will be a feeling by
many that this makes the team better as Jamie George was the starting hooker for the Lions in a successful tour of
New Zealand and is performing well in a strong Saracens side. The major injury worry for the opening fixture with
Ireland is whether Owen Farrell will be able to recover from thumb surgery in time. Thought by many to be
England’s best player it will be a devastating blow if the team are without their influential captain for what is an
already monumental task on the opening week in Dublin.

Recent Form:
Played 15: Won 9 Lost 6. Last 5: Won 4 Lost 1.

Fixtures Overview:
England open against Ireland in Dublin a game that could well decide where the trophy heads, then return home to
face France in a game they should win. They then travel to Cardiff for another potential tournament decider
against Wales. Round 4 sees them play Italy at Twickenham, a game where they will want to rack up as many tries
as possible in the eventuality that points difference decides the trophy winner. Their final game is against Scotland

at Twickenham which given Scotland’s recent Six Nations away form could be another good opportunity to get
some points on the board and a bonus point for tries scored.
Overall it’s hard to see England winning less than 3 games, France, Italy and Scotland at Twickenham should
provide 3 victories with the possibility of bonus points. It’s difficult to see them winning in Dublin but Ireland’s
growing injury list could help them and if they can come away with a bonus point loss there and beat Wales in
Cardiff there’s every chance of them regaining the trophy. Ultimately I think they fall just short of Ireland and finish
in 2nd spot.

Predicted Finishing Position: 2nd

Players to Watch:
Owen Farrell, Jonny May, Billy Vunipola and Maro Itoje
Farrell is England’s influential leader and with the injury to co-captain to Dylan Hartley his presence is of huge
importance to a successful English campaign. Now playing in his favoured 10 role he’s involved in nearly every
attacking decision, with his accurate kicking under pressure vital to keep the scoreboard ticking over. His ability to
switch to 12 where he played in the Lions tour of New Zealand provides the team with the versatility of a plan B
should Eddie Jones want to change strategy and bring George Ford off the bench.
May was England’s leading try scorer last campaign with 4 tries and had a try in each game of last year’s tour of
South Africa, he is always a danger to finish on the wing when England attack.
Vunipola is another key figure for the side but has been severely hampered by injury in recent seasons should he
stay fit he provides a huge lift for the squad in performance and intensity, whilst Itoje is one of the best locks in the
world on his day and an invaluable lineout weapon, but he’s also a penalty waiting to happen when frustrated, him
keeping his discipline could be the key to England’s success in the matches in Dublin and Cardiff.

Wales:

Squad Overview:
Now ranked the 3rd best team in the world in the official rankings, Wales enter the tournament having won their
last 9 matches and Warren Gatland names a strong squad for what will be his last Six Nations as he is due to depart
the role as head coach following the World Cup at the end of the year. Once again captained by Alun Wyn Jones,
Wales name the same 10 front row forwards from their successful Autumn International campaign. The exciting
Josh Navidi is back in the squad having recovered from a recent injury whilst the exceptional Jonathan Davies is
named at centre having missed last years tournament with an ankle injury . He is complimented in the back line by
the electric Steff Evans on the wing and Liam Williams at fullback. Notable exclusions from the squad are Lions star
Taulupe Faletau with a broken arm and although named in the squad there are huge doubts over the fitness of
Leigh Halfpenny and Ross Moriaty who haven’t played since late 2018 with concussion like symptoms.

Recent Form:
Played 16: Won 12 Lost 4. Last 5: Won 5 Lost 0.

Fixtures Overview:

Wales travel to Paris for the opener to face a French side in dire form having lost to Fiji in their last match in
November. They then travel onto Rome to face Italy before heading home to Cardiff for a humongous clash with
England. Round 4 sees them travel to Edinburgh to face Scotland before a potential tournament deciding clash at
home to Ireland in Round 5.
This tournament could go fantastically for Wales but could aIso turn out to be a huge disappointment. Riding high
off 9 straight victories they will be fancied by many to go extremely close to a title they haven’t won since 2013.
However a closer look at those victories shows they only narrowly edged out Australia 9-6 and their 20-11 victory
over South Africa was much closer than the scoreline suggests, with Wales hanging on late and a South African try
being ruled out. I can see Wales winning 3 games in this competition possibly 4, they will be hoping to be 2 wins
from 2 by the time they play England in Cardiff. However playing in Paris is never a straight forward proposition as
Ireland found out last year when scraping home with a late drop goal, so it is possible to see a scenario where
Wales massively disappoint and only win a match or 2. As preposterous as this looks on the face of it if they get off
to a bad start in Paris and lose to England they then face a daunting task against a strong Scottish side in
Edinburgh. Ultimately I have them finishing 3rd figuring they will beat Italy with a bonus point, probably win in Paris
and then get another victory from the remaining 3 matches against England, Ireland and Scotland, but as stated
they could finish anywhere from 1st to 5th in one of the most competitive Six Nations in a long time, which is what
makes the tournament so exciting.

Predicted Finishing Position: 3rd

Players to Watch:
Leigh Halfpenny, Jonathan Davies, Steff Evans and George North
Points from the boot of Leigh Halfpenny has long been a sure thing for Wales and they often rely on him heavily
especially in tight games. Anyone who watched the 2013 Lions tour of Australia will remember a man who off the
kicking tee was almost a certain success from anywhere 40 yards and in, so it will be a huge loss to Wales if he isn’t
recovered from concussion in time to play in the tournament. If Halfpenny isn’t fit, then the kicking duties will fall
largely on the shoulders of Dan Biggar and Gareth Anscombe who are adequate replacements if not as good as the
man himself.
Again followers of the British Lions will have fond memories of Jonathan Davies after his Man of the Series
performances against New Zealand in 2017 and his return from injury is a huge boost to a Welsh team that sorely
missed his presence last campaign. A piercing runner who provides heavy hits in defence Davies will be key to a
successful Welsh campaign.
On the wings Steff Evans had been in phenomenal form until 3 months ago for Scarlets before being mysteriously
in and out of selection, however he was on the scoresheet against Racing 92 at the weekend and Welsh fans will be
hoping he recaptures the form that saw him able to score from almost any situation in 2017-18. Another player
Welsh fans will want to see recapture past glories is George North, a career marred by concussions, at times he has
looked a shell of the player that cut Australia open on the 2013 Lions tour but he has 6 tries in 12 appearances for
Ospreys this year so could provide an X factor off the bench if required.

Scotland:

Squad Overview:
Gregor Townsend names a squad that has been somewhat depleted through injury as Scotland look to continue
the momentum from the last campaign that saw them claim 3rd their highest finish since 2013. Improving massively
in recent years under the stewardship of Vern Cotter (who left in 2017), Scotland have left behind the embarrasing
campaigns of 2014 and 2015 in which they won one game combined. The most high profile loss to injury apears to
be Openside Flanker Hamish Watson whose performances last year drew widespread acclaim and who has been in
scintillating form for Edinburgh as they advanced through the Champions Cup group stage. However he is by no
means the only loss, with George Turner and Fraser Brown’s unavailability causing 3 uncapped hookers to be
named in the squad of 39. This squad is sorely lacking in experience so it will be a relief to many Scottish fans that
they have a chance to heal their wounds and get battle hardened with an easy opener at home to Italy. In the
backs Scotland have 2 of the worlds best player in Finn Russell at Fly Half and Stuart Hogg at Fullback whilst at
Scrum Half Greg Laidlaw has been back to near his best for Clermont this season. This trio will be crucial to the
success of Scotland’s campaign and they are complimented by strong running centre Blair Kinghorn and Sean
Maitland on the wing who have both been exceptional for their clubs.

Recent Form:
Played 15: Won 9 Lost 6. Last 5: Won 3 Lost 2.

Fixtures Overview:
Scotland face Italy at home in Round 1, a game they will expect maximum points from and then have Ireland at
home a week later. A fully fit Scotland squad would give Ireland huge problems at a packed Murrayfield but with
Ireland currently having such an advantage in the forwards it’s difficult to see Scotland winning that one. They then
travel to Paris to play France where they haven’t won since 1999, before returning home to face Wales in a game I
think they will win. They finish at Twickenham against England where they haven’t won since 1983 so again that
looks an almost impossible task. With that in mind despite the improvement the squad has made in recent years
and their individual stars, it’s hard to see Scotland finishing above halfway in the table and I have them down for 2
wins and a 4th placed finish on bonus points above France.

Predicted Finishing Position: 4th

Players to Watch:
Finn Russell, Greg Laidlaw and Stuart Hogg.
As somewhat of a holy trinity for Scotland, the scrum and fly half combo of Laidlaw and Russell and Hogg at
fullback will be instrumental in many Scottish attacks and their individual brilliance could open up any tight
contests. Somewhat of an enigma, on his day Russell can be brilliant as evidenced by his performances for Racing
92 this year but he also has a mistake in him at any time and in search of the sublime can often gift the opposition
points, whilst his kicking at times can also be shaky. Should he find his best form games against Ireland and France
that I have Scotland tabbed to lose may become victories. Laidlaw who has returned to top form this year at
Clermont after a long term knee injury last year will be required to steady Russell should he start to waiver, and
will also make contributions from the kicking tee as the more accurate kicker of the pair. Thought by some to be

the world’s best Fullback Hogg will look to add his typical dynamic play to any attack, whilst his speed and strength
in cover defence can help to alleviate problems when the game becomes spread. His cannon leg is a formidable
weapon in the kicking game when clearing from his own 22, or looking to flip the field position at penalties or open
play kicking situations.

France:

Squad Overview:
Jacques Novel names a 31 man squad that will look to continue the improvement France have made under him
after the disaster tenure of Guy Noves. France won 2 games last campaign although that could so easily have been
3 as they lead with the clock well beyond 80 against eventual Grand Slam winners Ireland before Jonny Sexton
pulled off one of the greatest drop goals in history to edge them out 15-13. Lead by captain Guilhem Guirado who
is key to the French lineout game, the forwards include newly eligible French national Paul Willemse at Lock, and
Louis Picomols at 8, who is a threat to carry off the back of any attacking scrum. Mathie Bastareaud is the most
recognisable face in a contingent of backs featuring Camille Lopez, Gael Fickou and Morgan Parra. Though they will
sorely miss last years star, the explosive Teddy Thomas on the wing who is ruled out through injury.

Recent Form:
Played 14: Won 3 Lost 10 Drawn 1. Last 5: Won 1 Lost 4.

Fixtures Overview:
France kick-off the campaign against Wales in Paris in a game that will be crucial to both teams chances of
matching their expectations for the tournament. Currently it’s an evens game at the bookmakers and I expect it to
be extremely close also. Next up is England at Twickenham in a game I expect them to lose, before returning home
to play Scotland in Paris a game they will expect to win. They then travel to Dublin with the almost impossible task
of defeating Ireland at the Aviva stadium whilst Round 5 sees them conclude in Rome against Italy looking for a
triumphant end to the campaign as a springboard to the end of year World Cup. If they can find their flair with the
return of Lopez and Parra they may claim a bonus point in this fixture though Italy won’t be pushed around easily
in their own back yard. I can see France winning at least 2 games in this tournament and if they can get off to a
winning start against Wales on opening weekend they may even be surprise contenders for the trophy.
Unfortunately I can’t see them getting anything from visits to Ireland or England and have them finishing 5th in the
overall standings just losing out on Bonus Points to Scotland.

Predicted Finishing Position: 5th

Players to Watch:
Camille Lopez, Morgan Parra, Mathieu Basteraud and Louis Picomols.
The combination of Parra at 9 and Lopez at 10 will be key to French interplay and tactical kicking and French fans
will be hoping they hit top form after returning from injury layoffs, as they look to put a disappointing Autumn
Series behind them. Basteraud is an enormous man by anyone’s standards, so the fact he is a centre makes him all

the more frightening. His ball carrying and intensity will be counted on to lift the team’s spirits in crunch moments,
though he must maintain his discipline as any penalties given away or cards received won’t help the French cause.
Picomols is a threat to the try line inside the 22 and is a nightmare for defenders one on one. Look for him to take
advantage of attacking scrums by carrying off the back, he is difficult enough to stop when you know he’s coming
without the confusion brought by the defence guarding against a set play to the wing.

Italy:

Squad Overview:
Lead by their legendary captain Sergio Parisse Italy will be looking to get their 1st win in the competition since they
defeated Scotland in 2015. A phenomenal player and twice nominated for World Player of the Year, the real shame
of Parisse’s career is that he hasn’t the teammates at international level to match his quality. Coach Conor O’Shea
himself looking for a first Six Nations victory, having lost all 10 ties since taking the job, names a 31 man squad
heavily influenced by the 2 most successful Italian Clubs; Benneton and Zebre. 28 of the 31 squad players come
from those clubs, with Parisse (Stade Francais), Leonardo Ghiraldini of Toulouse and Michele Campagnaro of
Wasps completing the squad. Benneton showed increased form in the European Challenge Cup, almost qualifying
for the knockout stages which would have been a first for any Italian club but eventually just fell short. A notable
omission from the squad through injury is Jake Polledri who has been in fine form for Gloucester and would have
provided some much needed quality to Italian side.

Recent Form:
Played 14: Won 3 Lost 11. Last 5: Won 2 Lost 3.

Fixtures Overview:
Italy start their campaign in Edinburgh against Scotland, before heading home to face Wales and Ireland. They then
encounter England on the road at Twickenham before finishing in Rome against France. Without being
disrespectful to the Italian chances, it is extremely hard to see them getting any points again this year, always
tougher to beat in Rome than on the road it may be a different story if they were facing an understrength Scotland
side at home in the opener but as it’s at Murrayfield, I fully expect them to get convincingly beaten and most sides
will be licking their lips at the opportunity of playing them, in a tournament where bonus points and points
differential may be the decisive factor. Their best opportunity to win a game or even claiming a losing bonus point
is in Round 5 against France, especially if things have unravelled for the French and they are disinterested by then.
Conclusively though I see them winless and picking up the wooden spoon for the 4th straight year.

Predicted Finishing Position: 6th

Players to Watch:
Sergio Parisse and Tommaso Allan.
As already noted Parisse is an absolute warrior, instrumental for Italy in both attack and defence his skills are far
superior to those around him and as a proud Italian he wears his heart on his sleeve and is a constant source of
inspiration for those around him.

Since qualifying for Italian nationality having played for Scotland at Under 20’s Allan has been Italy’s top point
scorer and lead the team in tries last campaign. His kicking will be vital if his side are to have any chance of
upsetting the odds that are heavily stacked against them in every match and should he match his try tally from last
year they may be able to hang tough in games that otherwise could get out of hand.

Predicted Final Standings: This is my expected tournament standings and the results needed to produce those
standings.

        Nation           Won                Drawn                Lost          Bonus Points        Total Points

Ireland                    4                  0                      1               3                  19

England                    4                  0                      1               3                  19

Wales                      3                  0                      2               3                  15

Scotland                   2                  0                      3               2                  10

France                     2                  0                      3               1                  9

Italy                      0                  0                      6               0                  0

Results Summary:

ROUND ONE

France vs Wales - Wales win 4pts France losing bonus point
Scotland vs Italy - Scotland win + bonus point 5pts
Ireland vs England – Ireland win 4pts England losing bonus point

ROUND TWO

Scotland vs Ireland - Ireland win 4pts Scotland losing bonus point
Italy vs Wales – Wales win + bonus point 5pts
England vs France – England win 4pts

ROUND THREE

France vs Scotland - France win 4points
Wales vs England - England win 4pts Wales losing bonus point
Italy vs Ireland – Ireland win + bonus point 5pts

ROUND FOUR

Scotland vs Wales – Scotland win 4pts Wales losing bonus point
England vs Italy - England win + bonus point 5pts
Ireland vs France – Ireland win + bonus point 5pts

ROUND FIVE

Italy vs France – France win 4pts
Wales vs Ireland - Wales win 4pts Ireland losing bonus point
England vs Scotland – England win + bonus point 5pts

Table Summary:
When I started this preview I though it should be fairly obvious how the table would end up, Ireland 1st, Wales 2nd,
England 3rd, however the further I have delved it becomes increasingly complex. This could be the year that bonus
points reveal their true importance. I have Ireland on top as for me they have the most chance of doing the Grand
Slam of any side and although I have them losing in Cardiff to Wales there is no guarantee of that happening so to
not place them top would have me looking pretty foolish should they win every match. For the record I have them
beating England in Dublin and claiming bonus point victories over Italy and France whilst receiving a bonus point
for a close loss in Cardiff, I have them beating Scotland at Murrayfield in a tight affair and just doing enough to
claim the title. However not always the most flamboyant side and at times finding points hard to come by with
their grinding style of attack through the forwards they may struggle should the tournament come down to bonus
points or points differential and I won’t be diving into the 5/6 quoted on them claiming back to back crowns.
I have England finishing on level points with Ireland and should that happen the deciding factor could be the
margin of victory against Italy, a game I see them winning by about 50 points if motivated by the scenario and a
raucous home crowd at Twickenham. To get to 19 points I have England picking up a bonus point for a close loss in
Dublin and getting bonus point wins in Rounds 4 and 5 at home to Scotland and Italy, I also see them beating
France at home but not scoring 4 tries in the process and edging out Wales in Cardiff. I kept them in second spot in
my table as I think it’s much more likely they lose in Cardiff against Wales or get beaten by Ireland and don’t pick
up a bonus point in doing so than it is Ireland lose out to them on bonus points or points differential but I certainly
think there could be value in bucking conventional wisdom and risking a few points on England lifting the trophy.
In 3rd position on the table are Wales, although this comes with an asterix as it’s possible they could finish
anywhere between 1st and 5th. The opening game in Paris is crucial to their chances and I have them just edging it
before thumping Italy in Rome. I then have them losing to England and Scotland claiming bonus points in both but
should they win one or both they will face Ireland in Round 5 in a winner take all clash. I have them beating Ireland
in a nail biting contest but I couldn’t place them any higher than 3rd as I can’t see them beating all 3 of France,
Scotland and England.

Whilst I have France beating Scotland in Paris I have Scotland finishing just above France on bonus points as I think
their strong home form will get them a losing bonus versus Ireland and playing Italy at home virtually guarantees 4
tries. I don’t see France picking up bonus points on their travels in defeats to England and Ireland, nor scoring 4
tries against Italy in Rome, though it is entirely possible they get to 3 wins by beating Wales in the opener, but I had
to make a judgement call and marginally sided with the Welsh. Bringing up the rear are Italy who I can’t see getting
any bonus points in defeat, they have more chance of keeping it close in Rome but with having to face Ireland,
France and Wales I see them finishing pointless for the 3rd straight campaign.

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