SIMULATION AND GAMES IN FUTURING AND OTHER USES - The Millennium Project
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The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
SIMULATION AND GAMES
IN FUTURING AND OTHER USES
by
Erwin Rausch
with additions from
Frank Catanzaro
I. Introduction
II. Definitions
Futuring and Forecasting
Models, scenarios, outcomes simulations, and games
Distinctions between simulations and games
III. History of Simulations and Games
IV. Uses of Simulations and Games
V. Brief Descriptions of Simulations and Game Examples
Simulation Examples
Game Examples
Virtual World Examples
VI. Constructing Simulations and Games for Futuring and Other Purposes
VII. Establishing Objectives, Scope, and Resource Demands
VIII. Selecting Design Features
IX. Characteristics of the Simulators/Game Players and Facilitators, and
Their Arrangement
X. Communications Systems and Ease of Access to the Designers
XI. Facilities and Equipment for Working the Simulation or Game
XII. Simulation Design, Reviews, and Piloting
XIII. Strengths and Weaknesses of Simulation-Gaming
XIV. Alternative Uses and Use in Combination with Other Methods
XV. Frontiers of Simulations and Games
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
Appendices
Appendix A: Resource Organizations
Appendix B: Individuals prominent in simulations
Appendix C: Software and programming tools
Appendix D: Brief Descriptions of Several Selected Simulations and Games
Appendix E: Journals, Books and Conference Resources
References
Bibliography
Simulation and Games ii
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 Acknowledgments Frank Catanzaro has made updates on games and simulation to this Version 3.0 of the chapter. Valuable comments and suggestions were received from Dennis Meadows of the University of New Hampshire; Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, the Millennium Project; Herman Stekler of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces; and Daniel Yalowitz, Lesley College for previous versions of this chapter. Special thanks are due Barbara Steinwachs, International Consultant, who went out of her way to help. In addition, all of the organizations listed in Appendix A and most of the individuals in Appendix B provided information on their activities and many submitted descriptions of simulations and games from which the summaries in Appendix C were abstracted. Special thanks to Elizabeth Florescu, Neda Zawahri, and Kawthar Nakayima for excellent project support, Sheila Harty for editing, and John Young for proof reading. The Editor is grateful for all this help. Simulation and Games iii
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 I. INTRODUCTION An early example of a simulation was the airplane cockpit with a television monitor instead of a window and all the controls and instruments connected to a computer. The computer was programmed to simulate the instruments‘ response to the pilot's manipulations of the controls as if it were a real plane. The monitor showed what a pilot would see during takeoff, flight, and landing and would present the ―pilot‖ with weather and traffic problems or even emergencies. When a record is kept of what a pilot does so that ―performance‖ can be evaluated, or when more than one simulation is in progress at the same time, the simulation can become a game. To be a game, some objective or standard must be met. The objective could simply be to achieve the destination on time, or a standard could specify ways to overcome obstacles during flight. For the simulation to be a game, some way to determine a winner must be included. When ―playing‖ against standards, a participant wins when the standards are met or when performance is exceeded. In the most common form of game, players are in competition with each other to do a ―better‖ job instead of against a specific time, quantity, or quality standards. The simulation would also be a game if the "pilots" had make-believe weapons and "enemies" who try to destroy them. Simulations can thus provide the opportunity to explore various options for dealing with situations that may come up in the future. The future is new territory for the simulator to explore now. The simulation itself does not provide guidelines for meeting that future. It does, however, allow the participants (in this case, pilots) to decide how to react to many ―what-ifs.‖ What to do if the signal is given to take off, what to do if turbulence is encountered, what to do if this or that happens while the plane takes flight, etc.. In effect, the "pilot" can try, learn, and experiment, gaining many hours of experience in just minutes, all without risking the potentially enormous consequences of mistakes. Other kinds of simulations—like those that use scenarios of situations from business, demographics, ecology, economics, ethics, psychology, and other fields—permit participants to explore what would happen if... different resources were devoted to various business functions, or birth control instruction were provided, or interest rates were changed, or laws were passed to restrict toxic emissions, etc.. Gaming and Simulation entered a new era with the introduction of several new technologies over the last few years. A practical powerful and portable hand-held terminal epitomized by Apple‘s iPhone, and the sudden exponential growth of the MMOGs (massively multiplayer online games) such as Sony‘s Everquest, World of Warcraft and non-game-like ―social‖ worlds such as Second Life, CyWorld in Korea and the latest and most ambitious effort to date, China‘s HiPiHi world. Based on the Entropia CryENGINE, China‘s goal (not necessarily through HiPiHi) is to host more than 9 million simultaneous users; for comparison, most current virtual worlds host 100,000 simultaneous users. Virtual worlds are growing rapidly. Gartner, the market research firm, projects that 80% of Simulation and Games 1
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 active Internet users and enterprises will be in virtual worlds by 2011.1 While most will be taking advantage of collaboration tools in virtual worlds2, the fact remains that virtual worlds themselves are large simulations housing yet other simulations.3 A case could be made that virtual worlds are also creating ―artificial economies.‖ Many virtual worlds have a thriving currency exchange with daily fluctuations of the exchange rate with other ―real‖ currencies 4 5. These virtual economies are, in some cases helping developing economies.4 Parallel to this development was the introduction of the cell processor by IBM, described by some as a supercomputer on a chip. It was adopted by Sony‘s Playstation game platform and shortly after its commercial introduction; articles came out on how to use the Playstation as the core of a home-brew supercomputer for application to gaming simulation and other compute- intensive research subjects.5 During the late twentieth century, most drivers of simulation and gaming were commercial, academic, business, and military interests. They tended to be proprietary, expensive, and time and resource consuming. With the advent of the open source model of software development in the latter part of the last century a new approach to gaming and simulation emerged.6 Open source development is being applied to many fields of research from robotics to bioinformatics, and has created an ―open grid‖7 8approach to gaming and simulation that could grow into a ―metaverse‖ of simulations within simulations, a kind of massive Petri dish of growing and learning organisms interacting with real-life people and other simulations. 9 II. DEFINITIONS Future and Forecasting The word futuring is used in the title and throughout this paper, rather than forecasting, to clarify the role of simulation and gaming in looking at potential futures. Simulation-gaming can help bring to attention a rich and varied range of possible specific changes that may occur in an existing or imaginary scenario, and explore what repercussions might result. Simulation-gaming does not offer predictions nor even provide probabilities of occurrence without the use of other techniques. For the purposes of this paper, the word forecasting goes beyond futuring. Forecasting specifies a 1 Gartner Says 80 Percent of Active Internet Users Will Have A "Second Life" in the Virtual World by the End of 2011 2 Second Life to beat web as collaboration platform, says report | 11 Jan 2008 | ComputerWeekly.com 3 Desktop Simulation and Virtual Worlds - Simulation Modalities - What is ISL? - Center for Immersive and Simulation based Learning - Stanford University School of Medicine 4 Virtual world economy drives developing world economy | The Industry Standard 5 Scientists use PlayStations to create supercomputer, Scientists Write Guide to Build Supercomputer from Sony Playstation 3 6 The Multiverse According to Ben: Open-Source Robots + Robot Simulators + Virtual Worlds + AI = ??? 7 Welcome to OSGrid 8 Academia.edu | People | The Virtual World Game Simulation Reality Continuum Gradual Steps Of Added Reality/Imagination 9 Metaverse 08 - European Virtual Worlds Conference And Expo - Karlsruhe, May, 27-28 Simulation and Games 2
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
likely or most likely occurrence based on the assumptions. Sometimes forecasts assign
probabilities to specific possible results from a change or the passage of time. In weather
forecasts, for instance, the probability of rain is frequently assigned. Based on these probabilities,
forecasting may predict which of the possible results is likely to occur as time passes.
Simulation/gaming can describe possible futures; other techniques designate the probable ones.
A liberal interpretation is used to discuss simulations and games within the context of futuring.
For planning purposes, simulations and games clearly deal with matters pertaining to the future,
even though they paint aspects of a future that are strongly affected by the subsequent actions of
the simulators. Similarly, the use of simulations and games for education and training also
impacts the future, especially if they are used to train people in developing and manipulating
scenarios of the future. Even training and development for other functions has an influence on
the future by better preparing people in various skills.
Like all other techniques used to look into the future, simulations sometimes take a very near-
term perspective, as in the flight simulator, when simulating the possible outcomes of a hostage
situation, or when developing weather scenarios. Other simulations look at the intermediate
future, such as some business simulations, individual industry economic and ecological impact
simulations, and international trade and policy simulations. Finally, some look further ahead than
20 years, into what can be considered the distant future. These are likely to be simulations on
major world trends, providing glimpses of the likely results of demographic, ecological,
economic, political, social, and resource availability developments.
Models, Scenarios, Outcomes, Simulations, and Games
A model is a simplified or reduced-scale version of reality, depicting the elements of the reality
needed for the purposes of the model. For instance, a terrain and/or road map is a model that
depicts the information needed by a traveler about a geographic area. Examples of physical
models are the flight trainer cockpit or a test engine in a laboratory. Mathematical models
express, in equations, physical phenomena like moving stars or the relationship of atoms in a
molecule. Equations can also show the forces at work in an economy or any other complex
system with definable relationships among its components.
A scenario is an account of ―what happens‖ during some period of time in the course of an
action, development, or situation – past, present, or future, real or imagined. It is essentially a
narrative of events. It should be noted that each of those events may embody a scenario of its
own.. In a cross-country flight simulation, the pre-flight is the first activity of the main scenario,
and implies a sub-scenario of, say, {file flight plan}{sign out plane rental}{inspect plane} … and
so on Many sub-scenarios may occur in flight, since any action by the pilot or the co-pilot
moves the simulation to the next phase; finally the ending scenario (or outcome) is when the
plane has crashed or arrived safely or damaged at the gate, and the pilot has shut down the
engines. The outcome(s) of the simulation or game is (are) the ending scenario(s).
A simulation is any activity that projects a different situation in time and/or place, usually
extrapolating from the real/actual world to a hypothetical situation. A simulation, though not
necessarily a game, is based on a scenario that is often in the form of a model. A scenario does
Simulation and Games 3The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 not have to be a model but can be a simple description of a situation. Either statement—"Let us assume that you are a salesperson who will make a presentation on Product X," or "Imagine that you are planning to run for office in next year's election"—creates scenarios. Both statements immediately project someone into a vague scenario, a different place and/or time. Any question beginning with ―What if..." creates a simple simulation, because the answer requires some activity that changes the anticipated scenario. In the Product X salesperson scenario, the simulation could start from the question, "What would you do if the customer greeted you with...?" When planning a trip, a map becomes the model and the simulation projects the planner into the future when s/he will take the trip. The map allows estimates of distances and durations, as well as stops and other features of the trip. In a fire or disaster drill, the physical environment for the drill is the model and the drill is the simulation. For predicting the likely trajectory of a rocket, a set of equations defines the model and the creation of the path for a specific rocket is the simulation. A simulation for exploring what changes in a riverbed will result from a new culvert or dam would be based on some theoretical or physical model of the river. In a simulation for estimating the impact on food demands of various possible population changes, equations are most likely to define the model. Whether based on a model or just on a bare-bones description of a situation, a simulation creates a dynamic potential that brings life to the model or the scenario. Grey areas exist where some people call activities simulations that do not fully fit the definitions used in this paper. They result from the question "What do you think will be...?" That question is similar to "What if...?" but it does not project the person into the situation. Making such a distinction may seem like splitting hairs, especially since both questions may ask about the same scenario. However, the "What do you think will be..." question somehow asks for a fairly definitive answer, a prediction, rather than setting the stage for the exploration of various possible changes in the scenario, as the "What if..." question implies. The difference can be significant. Games are related to simulations in many ways. Simulations can be foundations for games, and they often are. A game is any activity with an objective that places a player — whether that player is a device, a person, several individuals, a group, or several groups — into competition against other players or against standards. If achievement standards are posited (like, "Let's see whether the task can be finished in x minutes... " or "Anyone who can build a tower more than two feet high with these building blocks, wins."), then the simulations or several parallel ones also become games. In the case of standards, when the competition is against "nature," it is possible for every participant to win (non-zero-sum games). In many other games, only one, or only a limited number of participants, can win (win-lose). What some lose can exactly match what others win (zero-sum), or the losses and winnings may not be equal (non-zero-sum games). Games have rules that bring constraints in addition to those that an underlying simulation model may impose. Simulation and Games 4
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 For instance even in a game based on a simulation, time limits may have to be observed, or the number of people in any one role may be prescribed. Distinctions between Simulations and Games In a simulation, the consequences of any relevant idea, no matter how absurd, can be explored. When several people participate in a simulation, they may even build on unorthodox ideas to generate unique, imaginative results. To some extent, this range of options is also true of games, but sometimes the time pressures of competition have a dampening effect on the exhaustive exploration of unusual ideas. For the purposes of developing possible scenarios for some aspect of the future, simulations are also, in some ways, more useful than games. The competition of a game can be a distorting influence in the dispassionate construction and analysis of scenarios. This distorting influence may exist even when the competition is against "nature," as it usually is when standards are used to evaluate "wins." However, games can expose shortcomings in models as well as educate. When applied with techniques—such as decision modeling, the Systems Method, and even the Delphi Method—games can help make those techniques more effective. Sometimes games can even make significant contributions by helping people gain greater awareness of future options, and thus make more informed judgments and decisions today. Games can be more useful than dry simulations to determine the adequacy of existing structures, policies, or procedures for future possibilities, to bring about more effective communications, to enhance learning, and thus to prepare people for coping with events that may occur in the near future. Games can also help explore the reactions of people to scenarios, eliciting a wide range of creative ideas and a lot of data for improving the model and simulation which would otherwise not be available. Games often are more challenging to the participants than the more intellectual exploration of a scenario that occurs in a simulation without serious competitive challenge. Games reach people's feelings and, therefore, lead to ideas that may not arise in the dryer environment of a simulation. By deeply involving participants, games stimulate totally new approaches to the real world. For issues pertaining to the future, games more than simulations can project much of the variety and dimensions of uncertainty that are characteristic of the future's rich panorama. Repeated playing of games pertaining to futuring leads to detailed insights into possibilities for the future, at least those aspects on which the game is based. The distinction between games and simulations in virtual worlds is less clear. With large open- ended social worlds such as Second Life, games can be a component of the larger simulation and in more game-oriented simulations such as Sony‘s Everquest, while the game aspect is in the forefront the overall social aspects of the simulation are ever present. Simulations and games have a major benefit in common. They allow users to search for the best approaches to exploiting an opportunity, facing a challenge, or solving a problem, without the risk or price of costly mistakes in the real world. Simulation and Games 5
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 III. HISTORY OF SIMULATIONS AND GAMES Simulation-gaming has a venerable history that goes back to antiquity. As long as organized armies existed, war games helped train soldiers to meet various possible situations they might encounter. Creative designers and engineers have always used simulations to explore whether a design could accomplish its goal or whether a specific change could improve the design. Leonardo da Vinci‘s work with wings attached to a person is an early recorded instance of a simulation. In more recent times, specifically since the Industrial Revolution, complete and partial physical models of preliminary equipment and product designs have been used widely to simulate the reaction of the design to various conditions that the final designs will have to meet. Computers have expanded simulations exponentially, since they eliminate the need for costly physical models, at least during the early phases of designing shapes, evaluating feasibility and cost of manufacturing, and exploring the reaction of the models to environmental conditions. Continual work with a model and an initial set of data, e.g. with computer programs, improves the model and adds data that can make the programs, models, and simulation more and more realistic and accurate. Even before computers were available, management experts used Operations Research concepts and financial data to construct models of business enterprises, public facilities, and their components. These models were then used in simulations to explore the impact of system design features, such as various possible numbers and locations of tollbooths on highways, fire stations in an area, or changes in resources within research, finance, operations, marketing, and distribution. The initial analysis of voting patterns to simulate the effect of election strategies is another example of the early use of nonphysical models in simulations. Imaginative teachers and instructors in many fields have used simple simulations and games for a long time. Though exceedingly cumbersome, manually scored and operated business models were occasionally used decades ago. These simulation-games by educational institutions, business associations, and large business enterprises allowed users to gain the vicarious experience compression that simulations permit and created opportunities for meaningful debriefing. Computers have brought even greater change in the types of models and simulations that are used for purposes other than product design. Simulations are now used to explore the impact of changes in variables affecting all types of systems, in physical and nonphysical sciences and other disciplines including, though not limited to, astronomy, biology, cinematography, demography, ecology, economy, ethics, finance, medicine, politics, sociology, and urban studies. See section XV of this chapter for more insight into the impact computers and communications will have on gaming and simulation. Simulation and Games 6
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 IV. USES OF SIMULATIONS AND GAMES Simulations are used widely by designers, researchers, planners, and business specialists to explore models. These applications in the form of games for education, human resource development, and fun are equally widespread. The world-famous Monopoly game is a simulation-game that is fun but also teaches some basic economic principles. The uses of simulations and games fall into six major categories: futuring, other research, planning, design, education/training (including virtual reality), and entertainment. In all these uses they can and often do expose shortcomings in the structures that they simulate. Thus, simulations and games extend their benefits beyond what comes directly from primary use, especially in developing plans for the future. Futuring Futuring is a vague term. Sometimes researchers use possible or probable end-of-simulation scenarios to look at the future and to help make decisions about what direction to take. Some government agencies, private research foundations, and other organizations involved in futures research construct scenarios of the future, with and without simulation, as a foundation for advocating specific policies or preventing passage of legislation designed to foster policies that they consider undesirable. In exploring and evaluating scenarios, simulations can provide an exceptionally useful tool, whether they are used alone or in combination with other research techniques. Recently there has been a movement toward large ―wisdom of crowds‖ type games and simulations in the futures field. The futures predictions marketplace pioneered by the Institute for the Future has become a free-for-all, with prediction markets spread across a wide range of interests. There was even an attempt to apply prediction markets to terrorist events, a perhaps ill conceived or badly marketed idea by DARPA to predict future terrorist activity. Other Research In addition to gaining knowledge of the future, simulations can help to improve knowledge for the future and are used widely in research for that purpose. Astronomers and physicists use simulations to determine relationships between masses in the universe and between subatomic particles. Medical researchers build physical and computer models of biochemical substances and of human organs to simulate the impact of various new techniques and substances that they are investigating. Researchers in the social and behavioral sciences experiment with simulations of interactions between individuals and groups, using simulations and games involving starting scenarios similar to those encountered in real life. Hardly any discipline today does not use simulation techniques for exploring the unknown. Simulation and Games 7
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 Planning Probably more common than simulations for research purposes are specific or vague scenarios of the future for planning purposes. Even when not explicitly spelled out, all planning makes assumptions about the future or relies on predictions. Planning either assumes continuation of present conditions into the future or makes assumptions about changes that the future will bring. Though their structure is not rigorous in permitting flexibility and spontaneity, simulations are often used to organize the planning process and to guide the way in which people will be involved. By using the same starting scenario, participants have a common base from which to build. Simulations help to assemble the combined talents and experiences of participants within the process and to focus them sharply on the task. Games elicit more intense personal and emotional involvement from participants, which often leads to stronger stimulation of creative ideas and the benefits of more diverse points of view for considering possibilities. Participants often have greater motivation for stepping into the unknown and the untried because, as with all simulations and games, the cost of errors is minimal. Design When the underlying model of a simulation is a reasonably accurate depiction of a real situation, the simulations can help in the design process itself, both to analyze critically the adequacy of a design, a structure, or a procedure and to test the organizational integrity of the real situation. Simulation models are used increasingly to design equipment, buildings, and other structures. For instance, simulated assembly of components in aircraft design permits much easier actual assembly with far better alignment of the segments than was possible before. Aircraft and even cars are subjected to simulated operating conditions in wind tunnels, on test stands, and on especially constructed road segments. Computers are used to simulate various possible shapes of aircraft and automotive skins, so that the appearance of the vehicles can be seen in three dimensions from all desired angles, and to conduct preliminary tests of the design's likely reaction to adverse conditions. Even plastic surgeons design facial features in computer simulations so that patients can see what they would look like after surgery, and so they can choose from different alternatives (end-of- simulation scenarios) without a single cut having been made in their skins. Obviously every design task, from architectural design to the development of organizational operating procedures, could benefit from computer simulation, provided the task warrants the cost of the simulation program design and operation. Entertainment The role of simulation-games for entertainment in developed countries is growing and is probably already the widest use of the technique. Many children of all ages have parents who Simulation and Games 8
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 buy them hand-held machines and/or a television set and its additional apparatus. In amusement arcades, these simulations — games whether they simulate driving, flying, navigating a labyrinth, or fighting — have taken over pinball machines and other entertainment. Little connection exists between these games and futuring, except that they may help to sharpen eye- hand coordination. Some are even educational and thus help the players gain broader perspective and judgment for dealing with issues pertaining to the future. Education and Training, Including Virtual Reality Human resource development, whether in educational institutions or elsewhere, is the second most widespread use of simulations and games. This application is likely to expand further when virtual reality applications become less expensive (see Strengths and Weaknesses of Simulation- Gaming for a brief discussion of virtual reality simulation). Competent teachers know that, although learning styles and retention rates are unique for each individual in general, students easily forget what they what are told, remember much of what they are shown, but will most rapidly understand what they have experienced. Competent teachers, therefore, have learned to use the power of games to involve students, even in the lowest grades, to acquire knowledge and skills in language, communications, mathematics, economics, social studies, and geography; later, even science courses and safety instruction are often enriched with games. Special temporary and permanent simulation/game fairs add stimulating variety and motivation for learning other topics, most notably economics and business. In undergraduate and graduate education, simulations provide vicarious experience in classes of all types, including education, engineering, the behavioral/mathematical/physical sciences, medicine, law, and, even more extensively, business. Another prominent use of simulations is in continuing professional development where simulations, including role plays, enjoy considerable popularity in private and public organizational learning centers and in post-graduate education for practitioners in various social service and psychology-related professions. For learning purposes, whether in an educational institution or in post-graduate training, simulations and their debriefings serve many valuable purposes. Simulations are a laboratory for involvement, for stimulating motivation to learn, for practical application and involvement, and for interpretation of newly acquired knowledge. In professional education, a participant can make several years‘ worth of relevant decisions in a matter of hours and receive feedback on the "quality" of the decisions based on the criteria and assumptions built into the simulation model. Best of all, mistakes or poor judgment do not bring the negative consequences that usually accompany them in real life. For futuring purposes, considerable learning is necessary to develop professionals in the many fields that involve scenario development, forecasting, and planning. In addition, people involved temporarily in activities related to futuring, such as professionals in a Delphi research project or in focus groups, might benefit from training that uses a game or a simulation to sharpen perceptions and awareness of the many dimensions of an issue. Simulation and Games 9
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 Virtual World as Extension of Real World China is pioneering the use of virtual worlds as an adjunct to their real world economy. Using the very realistic virtual reality engine CryENGINE, China plans to have the ability to have nine million simultaneous participants in their virtual world. China is not alone in this migration to virtual worlds as other countries race to the same goal. Korea, Brazil and Sweden are at the cutting edge of building such worlds into their economy. V. BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS OF SIMULATION AND GAME EXAMPLES Synopses of seven different types of simulations and of five gaming applications will provide a clearer picture of the use of this technique. SIMULATION EXAMPLES The following examples of simulations were selected to show a variety of formats and topics. 1. Economic Impact of the Fishing Industry This simulation is built on an economic input/output model of the type frequently used to estimate impacts of resource changes or to calculate contributions of an industry to the total economy. The model shows the goods and services that each industry sector (fishing, manufacturing, services, etc.) purchases from itself and from other sectors, as well as what it sells to itself and to other sectors. Using this model as the foundation for a simulation permits exploration of impacts on various other industries and on the entire economy covered by the model as well as of actions designed to stimulate or otherwise affect the fishing industry. Conversely, this model also permits evaluation of impacts on the fishing industry when developments bring changes in other segments of the economy. Like most simulations, this type of simulation is easily turned into a game: Just specify an objective and let individual players or teams modify the variables. For example, instruct the players to apportion limited funds to stimulating industry sectors to achieve the greatest economic improvement overall. 2. Weather The most commonly known and widely used model-based simulation into the future is weather forecasting. Data on temperature, wind velocities and directions, moisture content, cloud formations, etc., are collected at ground stations and by balloons all over the world and at various elevations. These data are fed into a vast computer network, which in the United States is coordinated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The NOAA Simulation and Games 10
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 network uses highly sophisticated programs with formulae that represent a dynamic, continuously changing model of weather conditions all over the globe. A weather simulation starts with a picture of the weather in specific geographical areas at the moment and then permits development of scenarios that consider various possibilities of changes. Since so much is known about relationships between weather in one location and its probable impact on weather in other locations, the computer goes almost directly from the existing weather to the most probable scenarios of future weather. This instance is one of the few where simulations lead to forecasts, without separate evaluation of the probabilities of alternate outcomes (ending scenarios). The forecast often provides the probabilities of precipitation, showing that some evaluation of probabilities does occur in the program. 3. Crude Oil Production The model for a simulation of crude oil production is based on proven, known, and undiscovered oil reserves in eleven regions, as estimated in reports by the Department of Energy and U.S. Geological Survey. The model then considers oil production techniques and their respective production ratios in various types of conditions and oil-field depletion levels. A simulation based on this model can vary the assumed reserves and production ratios in each of the regions to develop alternate possible outcomes. The figures for the respective alternatives can come from different experts or from some combination of expert opinions. The alternatives can then be evaluated, again by experts, to determine which one should be considered the best forecast. 4. Business Simulations The business field more than any other has developed simulations other than entertainment. Two types of business simulations emerged, as did many combinations of the two types; one is based on a numerical/mathematical model; the other is nonmathematical. The mathematical models are more often computer-based than the others. The numerical models typically provide balance sheet and income statement information for the entire company, division, or unit, like a department or sales outlet. Participants make decisions that apply to the upcoming period. These decisions can concern resource allocations to research, marketing, sales, equipment, facility investments, etc. The nonnumerical models are, in essence, programmed simulations that present events requiring decisions and then provide feedback on the simulated environment's reaction to participants' decisions. Business simulations of actual and hypothetical businesses are often used as games in college courses and in developing operating managers. When used by organizations for developing their own managers based on real situations, simulations and games can help uncover shortcomings in existing procedures and develop organizational changes that would be desirable. For example, a Simulation and Games 11
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 simulation designed to analyze policies, procedures, opportunities, and challenges in a large manufacturing enterprise may start with an imaginary crash of a plane into one of the buildings. This dramatic start was meant to initiate a review of safety rules but resulted in much more. It brought awareness of the inadequacy of the internal road system and of access for speedy evacuation and entry of emergency vehicles. 5. International Conflict Resolution This simulation's purpose was to provide a forum for serious consideration of alternatives to achieve world peace. It is based on the model for a "disarmed world" that was developed by Arthur Waskow at the Institute for Policy Studies. An international crisis emerges when one nation violates a disarmament agreement, and the World Court issues a "Cease and Desist" order. Participants who represent imaginary countries are also members of three councils: a disarmament council, a boundary council, and a special situations council. In various negotiation patterns, which follow a procedure required by the simulation, participants attempt to formulate common policy that will respect their own national interests and, at the same time, prevent the incident from exploding into a devastating confrontation. This type of simulation, if it were used by groups of experienced foreign policy officers, members of foreign policy institutions and think tanks, and experts from academia, could conceivably generate valuable models for consideration by multinational panels. For educational purposes this type of simulation can easily be used as a sophisticated game. 6. Conflict in Business The model behind this programmed-type simulation is not detailed, but merely describes an environment in which the participant is asked to assume that s/he is a supervisor in a factory. As the simulation progresses, participants are presented with a series of events that come up in the course of a supervisor's work. These situations involve conflict with a quality control supervisor and, in each one, the participant has to make decisions. Some of the decisions involve selection of the best alternative from several that the simulation presents. Others require identifying steps that could be taken in prioritizing and categorizing possible reactions of the quality control supervisor. Still other decisions require planning a meeting with the quality control supervisor in a role play. In helping to develop conflict prevention and resolution skills, the simulation can contribute to future competence in the work lives and private lives of participants. The simulation is transformed into a game if evaluation criteria assess the quality of the decisions at each event and a team or several teams in competition work toward a specified objective. Simulation and Games 12
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 7. A Hostage Crisis The model in this simulation describes a situation in which an armed man was caught in a burglary. He barricades himself in the apartment and is holding a woman and her child hostage. At first, no communications with him transpires but, after some initial attempts to speak with him through the door, he agrees to accept telephone calls. The participant has to establish options for dealing with the situation at several stages in the negotiations and evaluate the impact of these options on the people who are involved and/or affected. Beyond sharpening skills for handling people in crises, the simulation can enhance general decision-making skills by demonstrating the need to look at obvious and less apparent options when making decisions in the future. This simulation can be turned into a game using the same procedures as in example 6. GAME EXAMPLES The following examples of games are primarily educational, and geared to help participants better prepare for future activities. 1. Scarcity and Allocation Scarcity and Allocation is a game for grade-school children, built on a simple mathematical model that demonstrates how devoting time to tool building will lead to time savings that can be used to accumulate wealth and improve quality of life. The model is presented to the students in the form of a table and decisions are entered in a worksheet. Players are shipwrecked sailors who have reached shore with only their clothing and, of course, their skills. Players simulate life on the island by allocating 120 hours (12 hours per day for a 10-day period). In the beginning, almost all the time goes toward obtaining the daily food supply. At first, they eat only what they can collect; later, they also hunt, fish, and ultimately farm. Fewer hours are required to gain a day's food supply with the more advanced food- generating techniques that do, however, require tools. Any hours they do not need for the food supply can be used for building tools or for resting. The game thus helps to develop some economic literacy at an early age and some decision- making skills that will help children carry their weight as grown-up contributors in the economy at some future time. 2. Time Management This game uses a tightly timed series of events to interrupt a team that is designing and building a tower with building blocks or toy construction pieces. The goal of the game is to dispose of the simulated time-wasting interruptions in a sensible way, while continuing on the main task of building the highest possible tower. The game can be used to draw conclusions about teamwork, Simulation and Games 13
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 about decision making, and, of course, about time management. It thus helps participants become more effective in the future. 3. Ghetto This game is intended to help students from middle and higher socio-economic backgrounds gain greater appreciation of the obstacles that the poor encounter as they struggle to survive and succeed in life. Players are assigned various roles of poor people. They receive chips representing time, which they can use for various activities. Some of the activities, such as hustling, are potentially detrimental; some, such as gaining an education, are potentially beneficial; and others, such as recreation, are essentially neutral. An opportunity also allows players to spend time on community improvement. A chance device is used to determine which of the activities are successful or unsuccessful. As the game progresses, the players come to see how difficult it is for people to rise above their environmental conditions. 4. Tic-Tac-Toe This game uses a commercial three-dimensional tic-tac-toe game with four levels and 16 places for chips on each level, arranged in four rows of four. Teams of players receive different color chips and try to 'win' by being first to have four chips in a horizontal, vertical, or diagonal row. In a high-tension version of the game, the moves of the other team or teams are hidden from view and only one player from each team is allowed to see the board after each move. The game can be used for a variety of skill development purposes, including planning, communications, decision making, team leadership, and team followership, etc. 5. Civil Disorder Game A general structure for civil disorder games was developed by the Research Analysis Corporation for the International Association of Chiefs of Police as a foundation for adapting to local situations. The purpose of the game is to assist the police in developing a better capability to handle riots and insurrections. The games use starting scenario descriptions, maps, building layouts, and human and equipment resources to create simulations similar to war games. If taken seriously by a police department, such a game can uncover many shortcomings in the department's procedures and resource availability for handling this type of emergency. 6. Serious Games While arguably most of the games discussed in this paper are serious in intent, the serious game movement highlights the awakening of the games industry to the possibility that not all games Simulation and Games 14
The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
need a violent adversarial basis. Now, in addition to universities, management consultants, and
the military, the game industry is actively participating in the search for serious games that can
have a positive impact on the marketplace.
VIRTUAL WORLD EXAMPLES
Examples of the early virtual worlds produced in the 1990s are Alpha Worlds, Blaxx Sun, and
Habitat. The next phase in social worlds was led by pioneer Linden Labs and its Second Life.
This marked the start of the virtual land rush, with near-exponential growth in population, and
the entry of major corporate users such as IBM. Virtual worlds continue to grow and diversify.
Countries such as China, Brazil and Sweden are leading the way towards integration of the
virtual and the real worlds.
Figure 1. Virtual World map (2008)
There is a certain amount of recursive paradox in thinking about these virtual worlds, since
people use systems like Second Life to plan other simulations and games, all the while
―virtually‖ surrounded by other simulations, which are in most cases free to interact. The
environment of Second Life is sufficiently close to everyday reality so that one can quickly get
beyond this conundrum. It is, after all, a simulation of reality, some might say a new version of
real estate, with rather loose constraints on the physics involved, e.g. gravity, solidity and
distance need not be limiting factors in design.
Each individual who chooses to participate in these virtual resources is represented ―in world‖ as
an avatar or representation of themselves. Most avatars or participants choose to look like
themselves; e.g., with similar characteristics such as color of hair and overall height; however
you are not limited to such conventional portrayals and unusual non-humanoid avatars can be
seen.
Simulation and Games 15The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
There are currently hundreds of universities, educational institutions, non-profits and foundations
moving parts of their real-life activities into the virtual world. Because virtual land and other
resources are relatively cheap, it is a great place to test concepts, build simulations, and
otherwise kick the tires on new ideas before committing them to the expenses of real world
development. It is an inexpensive way to bring your organization‘s resources to a global
audience, whether it‘s curriculum or philanthropy or customer service. For-profit organizations
such as IBM have found it to be a very productive and cost-effective tool to link their offices and
clients worldwide. Offering 24/7 meeting, collaboration and customer support has more than
paid for their initial investment. For example, the Millennium Project‗s current work in Second
Life can be seen at: http://mpcollab.org/MPbeta1/node/1694.
Figure 2. Second Life used for virtual learning facilities and conferences
Figure 3. The Millennium Project Headquarters in Second Life
Simulation and Games 16The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
One can consider virtual simulations such as Second Life simply as a new form of real estate.
Also one can consider it as a simulator within a simulator surrounded by other simulators, all
interacting in a social web. Sound associated with the location of the source of the sound helps
people quickly adapt to holding meetings and seminars in cyberspace, regardless of their
geographical location, using video, PowerPoint, and other resources typical of any meeting, as if
in the same physical location.
VI. CONSTRUCTING SIMULATIONS AND GAMES FOR FUTURING AND
OTHER PURPOSES
Simulation and game design is more of an art than a science. When starting to design such
activities, speak with people who have designed and facilitated various types of simulations and
games. If that is not practical, read about simulation and game design. Even more useful is
participating in different simulations and games and reading descriptions about others. This
paper provides a brief description of the steps in design and a number of examples in
Appendix C.
Though simulation and game designers use many different techniques, some groups of tasks are
common:
1. Setting objectives, defining scope, and determining resource demands
2. Selecting design features of the model to express and communicate the fixed and variable
conditions and their relationships, including the assumptions on which they are based
3. Adapting the design to the characteristics and arrangement of participants
(simulators/players) and coordinators (facilitators/managers)
4. Selecting a communications system to support participants (simulators/players) and
coordinator (facilitator/manager) in the simulation/game and to provide
instructions/guidelines
5. Considering ease of access to designers during simulation and game activities for
clarification of questions not answered in the instructions or guidelines
6. Selecting facilities and equipment for delivery of the model and for working the
simulation and/or the game
7. Constructing, reviewing, and piloting simulations
Simulation and Games 17The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
VII. ESTABLISHING OBJECTIVES, SCOPES, RESOURCE DEMANDS
Simulations for looking into the future are complex designs. Considerable preparatory work
should be done before the decision is made to proceed with development.
The objectives (what the simulation should accomplish) determine the scope of the design work;
the scope provides a basis for estimating resource demands.
For example, a simulation could assist in estimating what land should be acquired for a new road
to connect two growing cities. In its simplest form, the scope could consider only the expected
demographic changes. In more sophisticated forms, the scope could also include some or many
additional variables, such as various possible future forms, locations, and designs of people
movers; stations along their routes; possible ecology-based restrictions on vehicular traffic;
vehicle design changes that reduce toxic exhaust; alternative location of industry and shopping
centers; changes in the cost of fuel, transportation equipment and land; etc.. Correct scoping
(establishing which variables should be considered in the simulation) is essential for estimating
how many work hours of each professional/occupational skill will be needed to complete the
simulation.
This example highlights the process that can be used to build and improve on a complex
simulation. Decisions pertaining to a road are not likely to require ongoing adjustment or more
than one or two revisions of the model on which the simulation is based. Other simulations,
however, such as those used for predicting weather or economic relationships, can be
increasingly realistic and accurate by regularly applying new data and/or additional variables in a
continuing adjustment process.
VIII. SELECTING DESIGN FEATURES
The first choice to be made, which has great influence on all other design elements, concerns the
use of computers. For all but the simplest models, computers can add immeasurably to the ease
of working the simulation, to the permissible limits of realism and complexity, and to the
evaluation of results.
Once the computer decision has been made, design features that have to be selected include
format, fixed elements of the underlying situation, dependent and independent variables,
assumptions about the variables and their relationships, random events and chance elements, the
extent of decision inertia, and whether the simulation is to be used as a game. These design
features are briefly discussed below.
Format Choices
1. One type of format concerns depicting the situation and expressing participant
decisions, which can be any combination of mathematical models, nonmathematical models,
physical simulation elements, role-plays, psychodramas, in-basket exercises, programmed
Simulation and Games 18The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
simulation decisions, and game formats.
A mathematical model is a set of numerical data, with or without equations, which define
connections between data subsets. The model can even be just a set of equations. The data can
be provided as a matrix, as a matrix with equations defining the relationship between matrix
segments (a spreadsheet), or even in graphs. Some mathematical models are very complex,
especially system dynamics models, which depict the dynamic relationships between variables in
a multi-dimensional model, such as one that relates demographic characteristics with economic
and ecological resources.
A nonmathematical model can be a map, a design drawing, a picture or schematic, an
audio or videotape, or any combination of these.
Physical simulation elements can be three-dimensional models of devices, such as a car
or a building for a fire drill, the locale for a war game, building blocks for creating structures,
puzzle segments, etc.
Role-plays take many forms, from two roles to many, from one person per role to many
people in a role. They can be designed with rigid specifications for each role with a written
script or as loosely defined roles. Each role can require the player to make many types of
complex decisions or to act out only a single event, like a sales presentation or a confrontation in
a minor conflict. The role play can be supported with observers whose functions allow a great
deal of freedom or impose fairly tight constraints.
Psychodrama is a special form of role play used primarily in group psychology and it has
its own set of rules. Its primary distinction from role plays is being far more emotionally intense
because it deals with the personal problems of the players.
In-basket exercises simulate an in-basket on the desk of the professional depicted by the
simulation. Participants are asked to dispose of the opportunities, challenges, and problems that
the memos, letters, and input material present.
Programmed simulations require participants to make a series of decisions in a partially
or fully pre-determined sequence. These decisions may involve a selection from several
alternatives, describing in speech or writing the actions participants would take in a certain
situation, role-playing an event, performing some task, such as placing a call to someone outside
the team, building a structure, reaching agreement on some issue, making decisions on papers
that the participant found in the in-basket upon return from a simulated vacation, etc.
Games include all simulation formats, since working on any of them to accomplish a
goal, meet standards, or compete against other people or groups turns a simulation into a game.
In addition, games can be pure games, such as tic-tac-toe, or adapted tests, such as popular game
shows, and even free-form games, such as The World Game, the Achievement Game, and
children's hide-and-seek. (For descriptions of the World and Achievement Games, see
Appendix C.)
Simulation and Games 19The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
Fred Goodman (see Appendix B) distinguishes one more category of metaphorical games that
are usually free-form. Metaphorical games depict situations that have the same characteristics as
the real world but are completely hypothetical. In one such game, The End of the Line,
participants experience the frustrations of aging when they are loosely tethered to chairs with a
rope to simulate limitations on mobility, and then try to participate in 'regular life' activities as
their physical, social, and financial resources shrink, including the length of the rope.
Games can be zero-sum (what some players win exactly matches what all other players
lose) or nonzero-sum (all players can win and no one necessarily has to lose).
All types of games can be useful as ice-breakers at meetings or learning programs and as
help for participants learning skills needed to participate in an activity connected with futuring,
but none are directly useful for developing scenarios on the future.
2. The second type of format choice more specifically concerns the way in which features of the
model, situation, or game will be communicated to the participants. Here the choices include
any combination of different types of computer programs, booklets, or other handouts,
questionnaires, audio or videotapes, pictures and oral descriptions.
Selecting fixed elements of the underlying situation
Selecting fixed elements of the underlying situation requires defining those elements that are
beyond the control of the participants and, therefore, may not be altered. They usually include all
or most of the initial conditions for the simulation and some givens. Examples of fixed elements
include the geography underlying a weather simulation, the characteristics of market segments
for a marketing simulation, background and role-player descriptions for a conflict resolution
scenario, and the definitions of various types of costs in a budgeting simulation.
Dependent and independent variables
The most complex and detailed part of a simulation design concerns the dependent and
independent variables and the assumptions that connect them to each other and to the fixed
elements. The relationships of the variables and fixed elements have to be identified, clarified,
and numerically defined in mathematical models, so they are as accurate and as consistent with
reality and/or with the assumptions as possible and/or as needed. A few examples will help to
clarify:
For a weather simulation, the influence of winds on air temperature at different elevations has to
be expressed in equations or computer animation inputs. Wind directions and velocities have to
be considered in these equations. At the same time, other influences—such as the effect of
moisture content of the air and cloud formations, time of day and underlying terrain—also have
to be taken into account
For a hostage simulation, all affected individuals and groups on all sides of the situation—law
enforcement, hostage takers, hostages, relatives of all of them, neighbors, etc.—have to be
identified as well as all nonaffected groups that may project themselves into the situation. The
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