Shaping the New Normal with Intelligent Connectivity - Huawei
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Shaping the New Normal with Intelligent Connectivity Mapping your transformation into a digital economy with GCI 2020 Tradememark Notice , , are trademarks or registered trademarks of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Other Trademarks, product, service and company names mentioned are the property of thier respective owners. General Disclaimer The information in this document may contain predictive statement including, without limitation, statements regarding the future financial and operating results, future product portfolios, new technologies, etc. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the predictive statements. Therefore, such information is provided for reference purpose only and constitutes neither an offer nor an acceptance. Huawei may change the information at any time without notice. Copyright © 2020 HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. All Rights Reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd.
09 Contents Starters are proactively narrowing the gap with the leading economies Foreword01 Executive Summary03 Countries face a new normal as they rebound their economies Country Rankings09 Countries step up efforts to promote digital transformation 16 Economic and Technological Impact16 Organizations in Countries build resilience for future economic development Frontrunner countries want to maintain IT expenditure Impact on Industries 37 ICT investments digitalize industries and help economies move into higher-order productivity Recommendations52 Appendix54 37 ICT investments digitalize industries and help economies move into higher-order productivity
Foreword COVID-19 has decimated national economies Economies with higher GCI scores have greater a more immersive experience for community and revealed the fragility of global supply chains. digital readiness thanks to mature infrastructure, interaction and entertainment. which has lessened the impact of the pandemic. A natural reaction to the pandemic has been for People and businesses in these Frontrunner Future-looking policymakers and industry leaders nations to cut spending. And most have, with economies have been able to transition faster should focus on building digital capabilities in key investment in digital infrastructure remaining flat to remote work, school, business, and services economic sectors, with the digital agenda placed in 2020 after years of growth. However, that’s thanks to strong digital infrastructure like at the heart of socioeconomic recovery plans. the exact opposite of what needs to happen — high-speed broadband and cloud. Even before ICT is the key to kickstarting recovery and even COVID-19, economies that were investing in We have identified five orders of productivity surpassing pre-pandemic productivity levels. digital infrastructure build out and capabilities across five key economic sectors that are enjoyed faster GDP growth during their central to the global economy. Policy makers While we have seen some acceleration in digital transition to digital economies. and industry leaders need to consider which transformation, such cases have tended to order of productivity their key economic sectors leverage existing ICT infrastructure. As a result, Full recovery from the pandemic requires two are operating in. We compared productivity in not all economies have been able to transform things to happen. One, it requires recovery manufacturing and agriculture across different at the same pace. Those with more developed from lockdowns and border shutdowns, so that economies, and saw that nations with higher digital infrastructure are better able to respond school, work, and global trade can resume via digitalization maturity are many times more to the pandemic, set out on the road to communication and collaboration tools. Two, it productive per worker or hour worked than other economic recovery, and build resilience for the requires a return to the same level of economic economies. To accelerate the recovery of the future. activity before the pandemic hit. economy to pre-pandemic levels, policymakers and leaders need to consider how to bring Since 2015, the GCI has tracked the progress of Achieving these goals requires a range of digital their economic sectors up to a higher order of 79 economies in deploying digital infrastructure capabilities. These include making remote productivity. and capabilities. This year, a survey of learning as effective or more effective than organizations across the three GCI clusters — classroom learning by using 5G-powered AR They need to review the status of their digital Starter, Adopter, and Frontrunner — shows that and VR, leveraging AI and IoT to boost the infrastructure readiness, as tracked by the GCI, organizations in nations with high GCI scores productivity of workers, adopting AI and robotics to develop ICT strategies and plans that facilitate are 2.5 to 3.5 times less likely to reduce their ICT to enhance healthcare services, and deploying the digital transformation of these sectors, power budgets. 5G networks and edge computing to provide economic recovery, and build future resilience. 01 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 FOREWORD | 02
Executive Summary Executive Summary Countries face a new normal as they rebound their Countries face a new normal as they rebound economies their economies At the beginning of 2020, nobody expected the revenues have slowed, organizations move into world to change so drastically in a matter of cost optimization mode. This curve is where over months. As economies work to recover from the 25% of global organizations were in late 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, we are now moving into a new normal in which society, governments, and 3. Business revenue decline. As revenues are industries have adapted to a new way of living expected to be in a prolonged state of decline, and operating. Moving forward, this new normal organizations focus on building business may be a better way for economies to run and for resilience and looking to their future recovery. nations to build competitiveness and resilience. Another 25% of global organizations were in this phase as of 4Q 2020, planning for recovery Economies tend to go through the following and the new normal. recovery curve: 4. Business growth recovery. As revenues pick 1. Business continuity. The first phase in which up, organizations are looking to invest more organizations respond to the crisis and focus aggressively to build competitiveness. The on business continuity. Globally, about 15% majority of organizations in Asia Pacific are in of organizations in major industries were in this phase and the next phase. this stage as of September 2020, with many moving to a cost-optimization phase. 5. The new normal. As businesses stabilize into the new normal, organizations will work to 2. Business slowdown. By stabilizing business after operate more as digital organizations. Percentage of Companies in the COVID-19 Recovery Stage What stage of the recovery cycle is your business currently in? 48 32 31 31 29 24 26 20 22 21 21 19 19 19 18 15 16 15 13 14 8 10 7 3 Business Economic Return to The New Recession Continuity Slowdown Growth Normal Global NA APAC LATAM EMEA 03 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 04
The world is adapting to this new normal, but the for expanding ICT infrastructure can help avoid IDC COVID-19 Technology Index speed of adaptation is uneven. a K-shaped recovery pattern and power a more even and robust future growth model. IDC COVID-19 Tech Index, August 13, 2020 It is faster in some economies and slower in US, Europe, & Asia Pacific others. Asia Pacific is recovering more quickly with The new normal created by COVID-19 will feature over 30% of organizations already progressing to the following characteristics: Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May June June July July Aug the new normal and 26% returning to growth. This v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 v2 v1 is then followed by North America. Latin America • Increased dependence on high-speed Asia Pacific, 1065 has the highest percentage of organizations in broadband for remote working and education USA, 1059 the economic slowdown stage, followed by EMEA Worldwide, 1050 - Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. • Cloud computing for the affordable automation Europe, 1024 Asia Pacific, 1004 of business processes and the provision The recovery model is influenced by a complex of scalable infrastructure for the storage, Worldwide, 967 mix of factors such as pandemic response, political processing, and delivery of information and Europe, 962 stability, risk environment, supply chain logistics, services USA, 936 and digital maturity. These and other factors combine to determine overall crisis resilience and • Artificial intelligence (AI) for facilitating the economic recovery model. Unlike the typical decision-making and process automation with patterns of V, U, W, and L-shaped recession and solutions such as chatbots Worldwide USA Asia Pacific Europe recovery, COVID-19 has given rise to a K-shaped recovery model. The K-shaped model occurs • Internet of Things (IoT) devices that enable when different parts of the economy recover at the automation of processes and services, and different speeds, which is something that nations deliver greater supply-chain resilience should aim to avoid so that certain sectors are A global surveyi of over 1,000 organizations indicates that buyer intent for IT investments is starting to not left to stagnate. • Technologies that reduce telecom network recover, especially in Asia Pacific. and data center total cost of operations and In this sense, ICT is a critical enabler of the operations expenditure. These include AI, IoT, recovery journey and a key determinant of how and solutions for sustainable energy, energy fast parts of the economy recover. Technology digitalization, and cooling. Such technologies opens the door to business continuity by allowing can (a) boost deployment viability and network companies to maintain productivity or even build out on the supply side and (b) reduce expand their business by, for example, protecting the carbon footprint of the ICT industry on the workflows from further shocks, implementing environment e-commerce, and enabling process automation. As COVID-19 has made digital transformation The above technologies are critical ICT enablers an urgent priority for almost every economy, for recovery. Many governments have put plans existing digital infrastructure alongside strategies in place to build them into their economies. 05 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 06
Economies that recover faster are in a more measures to relax and economic activity to return. GCI 2020 Highlights competitive position because they can resume business earlier. The following chart by Oxford The Global Connectivity Index 2020 (GCI 2020) Starters are narrowing the gap with the investment, organizations from Frontrunner University and EFGAMii shows the decline in service assesses how economies use ICT to accelerate leading economies thanks to improvements countries still want to maintain expenditure activity due to lockdown measures. As the pandemic economic recovery and identify what other steps in broadband coverage and affordability. on IT. situation improves, we can expect lockdown they can take. Some starters are proactively catching up with Research shows that the willingness of companies the other clusters. Over the last 5 years Starters to invest in IT varies depending on where they increased their mobile broadband adoption by over are based. Organizations in Frontrunner and PMI Service Activity Versus the COVID-19 Lockdown Stringency Index 2.5X with several countries having close to 100% Adopter nations are prioritizing maintaining their coverage, and their 4G subscribers from an average IT budgets over non-IT budgets. They have also 0 of 1% to an average of 19% in 2019, with some cut their IT budgets by 2.5 to 3.5 times less than countries reaching over 30% of their population organizations in other countries on average. -5 having high speed 4G mobile broadband coverage. Nations with more mature digital infrastructure China The mobile broadband affordability as measured are better positioned to minimize the economic -10 by the cost of mobile broadband divided by GNI impact of the pandemic, recover faster, and per capita have also dropped by 25% (more ensure the continuity of their transformation into -15 affordable). These increased internet access have higher-order productivity models. -20 Australia opened up new economic opportunities causing e-Commerce spending to almost double since Digital transformation of economic sectors Sweden will help economies develop “higher-order” -25 Brazil 2014 to over US$2,000 per person annually in 2019. Some Starters were moving up the GCI productivity to spur economic recovery and -30 Japan cluster, increased their GCI scores by up to 17%, future competitiveness. Change in PMI Services Activity -35 US and managed to raise GDP to a level that was 22% higher than some peers. Vietnam and Peru The race to recovery and making up for lost Germany France -40 UK Italy both became adopter economies in 2020. productivity because of the pandemic is dependent Russia on increasing productivity in key economic sectors Ireland -45 y = -0.6159x + 12.054 Economies with higher ICT maturity can drive such as agriculture, energy, mining, manufacturing, Spain services, and research. Economies with more R2 = 0.8426 digital transformation to respond quicker -50 India to the COVID-19 pandemic, mitigating the advanced productivity markers enabled by ICT Median PMI Services change: -39.3 -55 negative impact on GDP per capita by 50%. generally enjoy a much higher gross value-added 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 (GVA) per worker or hours worked. Change in Stringency Index Organizations in economies with higher GCI scores are able to react faster to the COVID-19 pandemic ICT maturity takes industry digital and use digital tools and services to mitigate the transformation through five stages of impact of lockdowns and social distancing. Due productivity: task efficiency, functional efficiency, to the availability of high-speed broadband, cloud system efficiency, organizational efficiency and services, AI, and IoT solutions, they can quickly agility, and ecosystem efficiency and resilience. implement distributed workforce models, migrate to e-commerce platforms, and digitally transform As economies improve their GCI scores, they their operations to maintain business continuity. are able to progressively use ICT to evolve their The forecast decline in their GDP per capita is about economic sectors toward higher-order operating 50% lower than for emerging GCI economies. models through use cases enabled by high- speed broadband to access compute and storage Organizations in countries with more capabilities, as well as implement AI and IoT mature digital infrastructure are prioritizing solutions. Economies can move from a mainly maintaining IT budgets over non-IT budgets. manual model to a computerized model and finally Despite the impact of COVID-19 on business to an integrated intelligent model. 07 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 08
Country Rankings Country Rankings Countries step up efforts to promote digital Countries step up efforts to promote digital transformation transformation The GCI tracks the relationship between ICT their economies from the COVID-19 pandemic infrastructure investment and economic growth towards a more competitive position through the to provide policy makers with the trends and digitalization of their economies. information they need for sound decisionmaking. GCI 2020’s research methodology has been GCI 2020 follows the digital development of 79 expanded to better reflect the emergence of 5G countries. Each is assigned a GCI score, which and explain the technologies that we believe will plots it on an S-curve graph. Countries on the drive economic growth in the near future. S-curve are grouped into three clusters — Starters, Adopters and Frontrunners — according to their GCI 2020 showcases the influence of 5G and AI level of ICT investment, maturity, and economic on GDP growth, which is particularly important development. for policy makers as they strive to help lead GCI Cluster Descriptor FRONTRUNNERS ADOPTERS STARTERS GCI SCORE RANGE 65-89 40-64 23-39 AVERAGE GDP PER CAPITA 56,400 15,600 3,600 (2019) (US$) CHARACTERISTICS Frontrunners are mainly Adopters experience Starters are in the early developed economies the largest GDP growth stage of ICT infrastructure that focus on enhancing from investment in ICT build-out. Their focus is user experience. Their infrastructure. They focus on expanding connectivity priorities have shifted to on increasing demand for coverage to give more investing in 5G, big data, high-speed connectivity people access to the AI, and IoT to develop to cloud to facilitate digital economy. smarter and more industry digitalization and innovative economies. economic growth. 09 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 COUNTRY RANKINGS | 10
Frontrunners form a cluster far ahead of the rest, GCI scores through increased ICT investment to GCI 2020 Country Rankings with a sizable gap of 4.6 points between them cross the development chasm. There are three and Adopters. This gap increases as Frontrunners leading Adopter sub-clusters that are moving continue to move faster than Adopters. The ahead of the rest, led by the United Arab Emirates average score of Frontrunners has increased (UAE), China, and Spain. Although they are still by 1.8 points to 73.8, whereas Adopters have far from the start of the Frontrunner cluster, these FRONTRUNNERS ADOPTERS STARTERS only increased by 1.2 points to 50.7. Adopter three countries have begun to pull away from the RANK COUNTRIES SCORE RANK COUNTRIES SCORE RANK COUNTRIES SCORE RANK COUNTRIES SCORE economies will need to significantly upgrade their rest of the Adopters. 1 United States 85 21 United Arab Emirates 85 40 Uruguay 85 58 Indonesia 85 2 Singapore 83 22 China 83 41 Romania 83 59 Philippines 83 3 Switzerland 81 23 Spain 81 42 Russia 81 60 Morocco 81 GCI 2020 Versus GDP per Capita 4 Sweden 81 24 Estonia 81 43 Oman 81 61 Ecuador 81 5 Denmark 78 25 Portugal 78 44 Brazil 78 62 Paraguay 78 GCI 2020 vs GDP per capita_S curve 6 Finland 75 26 Italy 75 45 Kazakhstan 75 63 India 75 7 Netherlands 75 27 Lithuania 75 46 Thailand 75 64 Egypt 75 STARTERS ADOPTERS FRONTRUNNERS 8 United Kingdom 75 28 Czech Republic 75 47 Belarus 75 65 Venezuela 75 9 Japan 74 29 Slovenia 74 48 Kuwait 74 66 Jordan 74 80K 10 Norway 74 30 Chile 74 49 Turkey 74 67 Lebanon 74 Switzerland Ireland 11 Australia 74 31 Hungary 74 50 Argentina 74 68 Bolivia 74 Norway 12 New Zealand 72 32 Slovakia 72 51 Serbia 72 69 Algeria 72 70K 72.0 1.8 73.8 13 South Korea 70 33 Saudi Arabia 70 52 Ukraine 70 70 Kenya 70 United States 14 Luxembourg 70 34 Malaysia 70 53 Mexico 70 71 Botswana 70 60K Singapore Denmark 15 Germany 69 35 Greece 69 54 Colombia 69 72 Ghana 69 Australia 49.5 1.2 50.7 16 France 69 36 Bulgaria 69 55 Vietnam 69 73 Bangladesh 69 50K Austria Sweden 17 Canada 68 37 Bahrain 68 56 South Africa 68 74 Namibia 68 Finland Germany Belgium 18 Ireland 67 38 Croatia 67 57 Peru 67 75 Pakistan 67 United Arab Emirates United Kingdom 40K 19 Belgium 65 39 Poland 65 76 Nigeria 65 New Zealand Japan 30.9 1.3 32.2 Italy 20 Austria 65 77 Uganda 65 Spain Nominal GDP per capita (US$) 30K 78 Tanzania 65 South Korea Czech Republic Kuwait Bahrain 79 Ethiopia 65 Saudi Arabia 20K Portugal Greece Oman Chile Kazakhstan Malaysia 10K Ecuador Brazil Botswana China Belarus Ethiopia Bolivia Vietnam 0K Ghana Although most of the numbers report what each before the COVID-19 pandemic has helped 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 economy has achieved in 2019, GCI 2020 also economies mitigate the pandemic's impact, as well GCI Score 2020 identifies how a more advanced GCI position as accelerate recovery by leveraging ICT maturity. The leading Starter economies are starting to with a gap of only 0.7 points. These breakaway blend in to the Adopter cluster, having grown at Starters have seen their GCI scores grow up to a faster rate than Adopters. Starters have grown 17% faster than their peers' scores, with parallel by 1.3 points to reach 32.3 points, mainly led by growth in GDP up to 22% higher. Some Starters the small sub-cluster of Indonesia, Philippines, graduated into Adopter economies in 2020, and Morocco. They have broken away from the including Vietnam and Peru. rest of the Starters and are closer to Adopters 11 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 COUNTRY RANKINGS | 12
Starters are accelerating rose from an average of 1% in 2015 to an average Fast movers from 2019 of 19% in 2019. In some countries, 30% of the digitalization and narrowing the population has high-speed 4G mobile broadband gap with the leading economies coverage. Mobile broadband affordability, as measured by the cost of mobile broadband Starters are proactively catching up with the other divided by GNI per capita, has improved by 25%. clusters. The average scores of all three clusters Increased Internet access has opened up new have improved since 2015, with Starters showing economic opportunities, causing annual spending the highest compound annual growth rate (CAGR), on e-commerce to almost double since 2014 to followed by Adopters and Frontrunners. Starters more than US$2,000 per person in 2019. Some improved in broadband performance faster than Starters were moving up the GCI cluster, increased the other clusters. Over the last five years, they their GCI scores by up to 17%, and managed to have increased mobile broadband adoption by raise GDP to a level that was 22% higher than over 2.5 times, with several countries achieving some peers. Vietnam and Peru both became Netherlands Kazakhstan close to 100% coverage. Their 4G subscriptions adopter economies in 2020. The Dutch government released two new ICT Kazakhstan has developed one of the most plans in 2019 to promote digital accessibility: advanced telecoms sectors in Central Asia, GCI Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 2015 to 2020 the Dutch Digitalisation Strategy and Digital underpinned by the largest economy in the Government Agenda: NL DIGIbetter. The Dutch region and abundant oil and natural gas reserves. Digitalisation Strategy is designed to transform As part of a 2018-2021 project, the government GCI CAGR 2015-2020 (%) the nation's economic sectors. is building fiber-optic lines and 4G LTE networks to connect rural areas. Broadband Internet The Netherlands was the first country to achieve services are already available in 117 cities and for nationwide LoRa IoT network coverage in 2016, 3,324 rural communities. The government aims STARTER 4.95 which in turn drove the adoption of IoT in over to provide broadband Internet access to 97% 300 million devices by 2019. The government of rural settlements by the end of 2022. It has launched the Dutch National Strategy on AI in conducted 5G trials in 2019 and plans to roll out ADOPTER 4.58 2018 and Plan for AI in 2019. These initiatives 5G in 2021. have helped drive the Netherland’s advancement in AI and IoT, which has helped increased its GCI The government, International country ranking. Telecommunication Union (ITU), and United FRONTRUNNER 3.38 Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) have agreed to collaborate on Giga, a UNICEF–ITU global initiative to connect every school to the Internet. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 13 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 COUNTRY RANKINGS | 14
Economic and Technological Impact Countries build resilience for future economic development Saudi Arabia Thailand The government of Saudi Arabia established Thailand is experiencing the fruits of its ICT Policy Saudi Vision 2030 to develop a thriving digital Framework 2011–2020. As of 2019, 78% of the society, digital government, and digital economy, population was covered by 4G, with the mobile and a future characterized by innovation. Its ICT broadband connection rate reaching 132% of strategy for 2019–2023 aims to improve the the population. Although the nation only has a telecommunications market, drive more local computer penetration rate of 16%, its smartphone digital content, and grow a vibrant ICT ecosystem penetration rate is 92%. and emerging technology cluster. Saudi Arabia has achieved 72% 4G coverage and 58% fiber- Thailand's use of cloud computing has tripled in to-the-home (FTTH) coverage, with average the last three years, and the Thailand 4.0 plan is download speeds of 45 Mbps. It spends about 2% further driving digital transformation. of its GDP annually on ICT. The nation is slowly but surely diversifying its economy away from a heavy dependence on oil and gas, towards a digital economy. The service sector now contributes about 25% of national GDP. 15 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020
Economic and Technological Comparison of Predicted Decline in GDP per Capita Before and During Covid-19 Versus GCI 2020 Scores Impact Economies with X higher GCI have a Y lower decline in GDP per Capita for 2020 Countries build resilience for future economic ADOPTERS FRONTRUNNERS development 2% China Switzerland 0% -2% GCI 2020 tracks ICT maturity Poland South Korea Percentage decline of forecasted GDP per Capita 2020 from before Covid-19 -4% Netherlands to mitigate the impact of Bulgaria Ireland COVID-19 and spur recovery -6% Thailand Saudi Australia Finland Average decline -8% Romania Austria of FR is -7% Denmark The COVID-19 pandemic has made digital Vietnam Hungary Belgium France -10% transformation a priority for all economies Portugal Canada 50% as they grapple with maintaining business -12% Kazakhstan Greece Singapore operations in the midst of lockdown and social Spain United Kingdom distancing. When we compare economies with -14% Average decline differing levels of GCI maturity, we see that those of AD is -14% -16% with higher GCI scores have been less impacted Malaysia Norway by the COVID-19 pandemic based on the lower -18% UAE estimated decline in their GDP per capita. Their Ukraine Chile -20% pre-pandemic GDP per capita forecasts and Russia revised forecasts for after the pandemic hit -22% Colombia show that GDP decline was lower for countries -24% with higher GCI scores. On average, the GDP of Peru Turkey Frontrunner economies are forecast to drop by -26% about 7%, compared with 14% for Adopters. Argentina Brazil Although there are many factors that impact -28% economic decline, the COVID-19 pandemic has 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 brought ICT to the forefront as a critical enabler GCI Score 2020 of business continuity. Organizations in more Source: GCI and EIU November 2020 Update mature GCI economies can restart business earlier and faster, and transition more smoothly to remote working because of higher ICT maturity. In general, their higher ICT maturity is able to Organizations in Frontrunner economies with help organizations in these economies operate lessen the impact of the pandemic by 50% more higher broadband and cloud adoption find it more effectively and enable health authorities to than Adopter economies. easier to stay in business and continue to operate identify and predict new clusters of infections for even during lockdown. AI and IoT solutions preemptive action. 17 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT | 18
Organizations in countries with more mature digital infrastructure The table below shows how technology is a critical enabler for the socioeconomic activities that can stimulate recovery and spur the transition to the next stage of economic growth. are prioritizing maintaining IT budgets over non-IT budgets. Despite the impact of COVID-19 on business investment, organizations Technologies create value in the new normal from Frontrunner countries still want to maintain expenditure on IT. Research shows that the willingness of companies to invest in IT varies depending on where they are based. Organizations in Frontrunner and Adopter nations are prioritizing maintaining their IT budgets Critical Technology Enablers for Socioeconomic Recovery over non-IT budgets. They have also cut their IT budgets by 2.5 to 3.5 times less than organizations in other countries on average. Nations with more mature digital infrastructure are better positioned to minimize the economic impact of the pandemic, recover faster, and ensure the continuity of their Remote work Digital Maintaining Pandemic Gig economy, Automating Automating Entertainment transformation into higher-order productivity models. and school commerce and logistics and Telemedicine management new work manufacturing service and sports through video transactions supply chains and control models Production operations Computing devices (smartphone, tablet, PC) Percentage Decline in IT Budgets in 2020 by Cluster 4G mobile broadband More mature economies are better able to maintain 5G mobile IT investments and drive productivity gains broadband FTTH STARTER ADOPTER FRONTRUNNER Cloud AI, BDA -1.4% Robotics Edge, IoT 2.5X sensors and actuators -3.5% Autonomous devices -4.2% -4.5% -4.9% -4.8% 3.5X Necessary Enhance productivity IT Budget Non-IT Budget Source: GCI, IDC Covid Survey 2020 19 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT | 20
Countries have benefited from in-event and remote experience. This reduces mistakes due to anatomical variances (the differences between each person’s individual the construction and application The same opportunity now presents itself in any anatomy) and improves efficiency in the operating of 5G infrastructure country adversely affected by the COVID-19 room. In addition to visualizing the patient's pandemic. The migration to remote working and anatomy, Aris MD’s automated segmentation Many countries went into lockdown to fight remote learning is unlikely to end with a return technology allows images to be separated into the spread of COVID-19, with health and safety to the "old world" approach. Lockdowns and individual organs and parts, without the need for positioned as top priorities. Services, such as shelter-in-place mandates define how people either a radiologist to manually mark up images healthcare, government services, banking, and work and play from home. They are consuming or the use of 3D modeling techniques. supply chains, took advantage of digital channels large amounts of data, much of which is critical to quickly respond and serve more than 1 billion data for things like learning, video conferencing, High-speed, low-latency networks can deliver people. The switch happened almost overnight, and collaboration. One hour of a live webinar 4K high-resolution videos without causing people adapted, and many lives were saved. in standard definition requires 700 MB of data interference in the operating environment. During transfer and full HD requires even more. Many the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of telemedicine The speed, latency, and capacity of 5G has remote workers cite the lack of video quality as to diagnose and treat patients has surged. Real- become even more crucial for powering business a major impediment to creating a more realistic time video communication between doctors resilience and overall recovery. 5G phones may not and engaging experience. Since the pandemic, and patients in secure environments minimizes appear to be useful in the post–COVID-19 world, Spain has seen an average increase of 40% in the risk of in-person interactions and expedites but their ability to provide broadband connectivity, bandwidth use even as its download speeds diagnosis and treatment. host augmented reality and virtual reality (AR/VR), declined by 8%. As use cases for remote working, and enable content-streaming at higher resolution remote learning, smart home, and content- In manufacturing, plants can harness 5G to — both for entertainment and service delivery streaming increase, data transfers are only going power IoT solutions in smart factories, increasing — make them an essential first step in the to rise as the world adjusts to the new normal for productivity and ROI. The use cases across widespread deployment of 5G and its use cases. an increasingly remote global workforce. distribution and services, manufacturing and resources, and the public sector will be worth Japanese companies committed to investing A further evolution of video connections is US$311 billion by the end of 2024. Keeping more than US$45 billion in 5G deployment, the AR/VR. Both can be used in a wide range of workers out of harm’s way is a priority in mining, intention of which was ensuring 5G coverage for entertainment, industrial, and educational oil and gas, and manufacturing. Autonomous see 5G enabling many new robot delivery use the 2020 Summer Olympic Games. Although the scenarios. However, use cases are currently mining dump trucks are being deployed in Russia cases, and many countries are well-placed for COVID-19 pandemic led to the postponement of constrained by (a) bandwidth (requirements are in the Siberian Coal Energy Company's (SUEK) this to happen. In addition, governments have the Olympics, Japan still intends to push ahead 50 Mbps for 4K/basic 3D AR/VR and 100 Mbps open-pit coal mine in Khakassia to test the incentives to encourage innovative delivery with its 5G plans. The event is planned to take for 8K/immersive 3D AR/VR) and (b) latency potential of 5G as part of an autonomous haulage models that reduce the spread of the virus and place in Japan in 2021, but the infrastructure (requirements are sub 20 ms). Neither are system. Secure 5G connectivity is the leading enable a heavily distributed workforce. During investments in fiber networks and cellular 5G will possible on 4G (LTE) networks. A 4G network can contender for private networks at the mine site. the pandemic, Japanese start-ups also developed still be in place to support whatever the post- support AR/VR up to 1080p (approximately 2K) robots for medical use and contactless deliveries. pandemic future holds. For the Olympics, as with limited applications. Similarly, remote-operated oil rigs are being showcased in the 2018 Korean Winter Olympics, trialled by operators, such as Royal Dutch Shell, Countries that can build and use 5G infrastructure 5G use cases in terms of augmented experience However, applications such as remote services to reduce the need for on-site personnel and can reap the benefits that this technology already (additional viewing angles, statistics, and immersion and guided services are already being enhanced improve safety in hazardous locations. offers. Nations that do not invest heavily in this in sports such as swimming and the marathon) by AR/VR solutions. One example in healthcare direction will fall behind from the benefits of its expanded the reach of the games to a far broader comes from Aris MD, which uses diagnostic Other 5G use cases that will grow are online revolutionary applications. audience. Similarly, the 2018 Commonwealth images (DICOMiii) to create 3D visualizations of shopping and robot deliveries. Japan started Games in Queensland used HD streaming coupled patient anatomy displayed over the patient, so deploying robots to deliver products to consumers As of early 2020, about 53 countries had started with 5G-enabled handsets, enhancing both the surgeons can see individual internal physiology. in 2019. COVID-19 and its aftermath could deploying 5G. 21 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT | 22
Enterprises accelerate the offer virtual clinics and have seen a significant eportals, multimedia, television, and YouTube better enable business. Although air cargo uptake of such solutions. These cloud-based (such as the Edu TV Kenya YouTube channel) to experienced growth fueled in part by the migration of applications to solutions help to quickly scale out the offering to ensure that education continued. Most countries increase in e-commerce and online shopping, the cloud. reach many more users, often on existing devices. have deployed e-learning solutions that include efficient network coverage and capacity were online and offline content and applications. In still issues. In Europe, Air France KLM Martinair The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the Healthcare providers are increasingly leveraging Egypt, the Ministry of Education and Technical (AF-KLM) Cargo launched Kickcharter, a new importance of digital transformation in the eyes hybrid cloud models in key areas such as data Education (MoETE) implemented distance collaborative platform for charter flights to of policy makers across most economies. Industries management and IT infrastructure. Although learning and assessments, extended access to address capacity issues and widen their network that have accelerated their digital transformation this was a trend even before the pandemic, it the Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB) to students, to serve destinations not in their usual network, plans have coped better with the crisis. With a became critical as COVID-19 swept the globe. The and provided content by grade level and subject, or affected by airline shutdowns. To address recession on the horizon, or already happening move to cloud computing and software-defined which is accessible by phone or computer. Its site gaps in the network, charter services had to be in many countries, organizations have to decide architectures offers secure, flexible, and highly features education content through multimedia, operated with enough shipments to mitigate whether it is enough to follow the same course scalable compute and storage resources that far including textbooks and videos. It also launched the cost of servicing the area. Kickcharter was of cost-cutting as they did in previous recessions, exceed those of legacy on-premise platforms. a digital platform that enabled communication developed by an in-house team as part of digital or engage in other strategies to flatten their own between 22 million students and teachers in transformation. The new platform enables recessionary curve by leveraging technology. In many countries, the pandemic forced 55,000 schools in a manner that was similar to customers to book cargo capacity to ensure Economies that have invested in digital governments to close schools, with students being at school. Even students who are not in freighter flights are full and flown to destinations transformation see an opportunity to flatten the learning from home. Governments and educators the country can use the electronic platform and not on its scheduled network. curve using technology to minimize the impact employed a range of technologies, including digital library. of the current crisis and emerge resilient on the All economies are expected to accelerate the other side of the curve — more digitally fit and In Bulgaria, each higher education institution adoption of modern, cloud-native application agile, and better equipped to capture their share independently organized the distance platforms and distributed cloud infrastructure of new opportunities as part of the new normal. learning process for its students using various options that enable bidirectional scalability, communication channels. These include online workload portability, and a promise of continual Cloud continues to be the underpinning platform platforms and video conferencing software, such enhancement from cloud to core to edge. These for all digital transformation initiatives, and has as Office 365, Skype, and Blackboard, through increase ease of mobility across infrastructures therefore seen an acceleration in demand in the which distance learning sessions are conducted. and platform options, while reducing constraints. wake of the pandemic. All that cloud promised in As organizations move from crisis management terms of elastic consumption, agile development, To address unequal access to technology and to recuperation and then onto remediation, and global reach is being tested now. Cloud enable e-learning, governments and corporations a faster and more extensive adoption of platforms (including public, hosted, private, and have come together to address broader access cloud technologies, deployment models, and the recently introduced local cloud-as-a-service needs. Argentina has zero-rated its Educ.ar operational practices will help flatten dips in any [LCaaS], a compute, storage, and network bundle education portal, and telephone companies have future crises. from IT suppliers) are playing a critical role in guaranteed that using digital platforms will be helping enterprises react to the crisis, deal with free of charge and will not consume data. In the slowdown, and enable operational resilience. Kenya, the government worked with technology providers to provide wider Internet coverage to As safe distancing rules kicked in, telemedicine all students and families through the deployment solutions have also seen a rise in adoption, of Loon balloons floating over Kenyan airspace as healthcare providers have sought to keep carrying 4G base stations. Loon is a network both patient and healthcare workers safe and of stratospheric balloons that provide Internet productive. Some African countries are using video connectivity for rural and remote communities. conferencing to replace in-person consultations. In many other countries, healthcare providers Cloud has also helped organizations pivot to 23 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT | 24
AI facilities virus diagnoses and services be further overwhelmed, AI can help by years, as was the case with the SARS epidemic. beyond crisis management and towards business optimizing patient management and operations That said, testing a potential vaccine on animals resilience and growth.x Many speculate what the development of new medicine. to reduce the workload on healthcare staff. Also and then people is a very slow process that new normal will look like, but it is almost certain in Singapore, AI provides real-time visibility of requires careful design and is by no means certain that businesses will ensure they are able to AI, along with a host of other technologies, is ground operations at Tan Tock Seng Hospital of success. For example, fearing a pandemic, a operate and interact with their customers digitally. mitigating some of the pandemic’s negative (TTSH) from admission to discharge, including vaccine was rushed out for the 1976 swine flu, As such, AI is increasing in prominence as a way consequences both in healthcare and business in keeping track of resources, such as hospital exposing millions of people to an increased risk of for enterprises to adapt to the increased use of general. workers, beds, critical equipment, personal the neurological disorder Guillain-Barre syndrome. digital platforms while increasing productivity protective gear, and other supplies. AI is even The best strategy therefore is coordination across and efficiency. Use cases involving AI chatbots, The most obvious area of AI application is in used to predict operational problems before they national research and development (R&D) efforts intelligent automation, voice analytics, and AI healthcare. Hospitals and public health agencies occur, outputting information on how resources to find a cure. Again, AI, particularly in the form of cybersecurity tools, have all increased despite the are spearheading efforts against the spread of can be better allocated. In February 2020, TTSH natural language processing (NLP), is being used general economic slowdown brought about by the virus. Investment in AI-based healthcare saw a surge in attendance at its COVID-19 to track scientific papers and identify potential the pandemic. solutions has doubled from about US2 billion screening center, coinciding with increased in- directions for new research on the virus.ix globally as a result of the pandemic. We expect patient admissions at the National Centre for With the COVID-19 pandemic, AI has proven it to continue growing at more than 30% Infectious Diseases (NCID), which is located next Many enterprises and industries, such as transport, itself to be a valuable tool in making economies, for several years to come. AI can help detect to TTSH. Guided by its internal AI tools, TTSH was logistics, agriculture, and communications, are industries, societies, and individuals more resilient the virus; for example, AI-enabled thermal able to pull together the manpower, equipment, adopting AI to help them scale and operate to similar threats. The debate is no longer cameras reduce the reliance of frontline staff and other resources to quickly open five wards at effectively to meet the fast-changing needs of AI versus people; the new challenge will be to manually measure individuals' temperatures the NCID and strengthen its screening center.vii their customers and employees while social how to use AI to improve knowledge workers' using forehead thermometers. This increases the distancing and quarantine measures remain in productivity. By 2024, we expect more than a accuracy of readings, takes less time to measure AI-based tracking, combined with advanced place. With the COVID-19 crisis continuing for the third of knowledge workers to spend a significant temperatures, and reduces the risk of frontline graphical analytics, can help predict the spread foreseeable future, more companies are moving time at work interacting with AI-based tools. staff contracting the virus.iv of the virus, require local lockdowns, and give authorities the information they need to prevent Frontline medical services have been severely the virus from spreading further. By tracking stretched across the world. Technologies like movement through mobile devices, AI can give AI-enabled chatbots, telemedicine, drones, scientists prior warning and provide countries and and physical robots have been used to reduce hospitals advance notice of potential virus risks.viii interaction between patients and doctors and cut the risk of infection for medical staff.v For AI is accelerating the process of diagnosis, vaccine example, the Centers for Disease Control and creation, and testing, helping to identify genome Prevention (CDC) in the United States built a sequences to build an effective vaccine. chatbot to respond to people who potentially have COVID-19 symptoms. In addition, the US has Traditional manual tests are extremely slow by also put up an online triage system to respond to comparison. BenevolentAI from the UK used its AI individuals with more serious symptoms, so that drug discovery platform to identify approved drugs the authorities can locate them earlier.vi to potentially inhibit the progression of COVID-19. It used AI to derive contextual relationships In Singapore, medics at the National University between genes, diseases, and drugs, suggesting Hospital use a clinical chat assistant smartphone a number of possible vaccines. In just days, app to keep pace with the fast-changing BenevolentAI found a vaccine candidate in late- information about the pandemic. AI in hospitals stage clinical trials in the US. AI enables the testing goes beyond providing insights. Should healthcare of a potential vaccine within months instead of 25 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT | 26
IoT creates contactless using Bluetooth and Wi-Fi to measure proximity. wristband monitors when wearers touch their Whether at the office, factory, or construction site, face, which is one way to contract the virus. experiences each employee can be equipped with a compact Another type of wristband in Brazil tracks people wearable proximity sensor that enables the easy who recently arrived to the country to ensure The combination of ubiquitous high-speed monitoring of interactions within common areas they adhere to home quarantine protocols. networks and advanced deployment of intelligent to work alongside security badges for access endpoints has gone a long way to mitigate the control. When the sensors record that two or • e-commerce. The COVID-19 pandemic has impact of COVID-19. more people have exceeded the safety limit, it greatly affected the way businesses conduct warns them with an audible or visual alarm. payments and accounting, especially as Remote care solutions that can collect data on companies have been forced to transition at-risk populations have become a priority as Social distancing is only one aspect of managing to virtual collaboration and remote work. large numbers of people become displaced, work after the pandemic. Businesses everywhere Implementing IoT in commercial transactions medical facilities become overwhelmed, and are looking to keep working, especially where changes the flow of data because it provides treatment must be delivered over an extended remote work is not practical. As a result, digital receipts of all financial-related period and geographical scope. With an distancing must be augmented with increased knowledge and real-time data. The pandemic increasing influx of patients caused by the sanitation awareness. A number of start-ups has accelerated the adoption of cashless pandemic, temporary hospitals are being set up have developed contactless monitoring stations models in markets from Singapore to China to around the world. However, infrastructure may that scan employees' hands for contamination Argentina. Combined e-commerce solutions be lacking in temporary locations for full-scale and monitor how they wash their hands. Digital will enable faster issue assessments and risk networking. During a health crisis, healthcare sanitary policy enforcement and traceability analyses and let businesses respond to issues ◦◦ Monitoring public gatherings and relaying facilities create temporary patient care areas solutions are essential tools to help workers much faster than they could otherwise. information to authorities when social that require a method for patients to call for follow distancing rules and control their exposure distancing protocols are violated nurses. Low-power WAN (LPWAN) IoT tools to potential contaminations, therefore preventing • Robots. 5G-connected robots have been ◦◦ Spraying disinfectant in public areas and can be deployed to use unlicensed spectrum to the shutdown of plants and facilities. programmed to deliver food, drinks, and vehicles traveling into or out of hotspots enable emergency workers and patient care. The medication to patients. This not only reduces use of telemedicine across the Middle East and IoT has developed to the point that many time-pressures for human staff, but also cuts Many business leaders now view IoT as a critical some African countries to reduce contact with useful devices existed prior to the arrival of the human interaction with COVID-19 patients, lever, one that if integrated correctly will not only potentially infected individuals, while delivering pandemic. As a result, technologies need to thereby reducing the risk of virus transfer. ensure a safe and secure return to work but also initial triage and ongoing outpatient care, has be adapted, scaled, and secured to help in the Robotic deliveries in Washington, D.C. have give rise to recurring dividends for years to come. become widespread not only in critical care, fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, allowed people in isolation to directly receive For instance, consider the supply chain hindrances but also counseling, physiotherapy, and elderly IoT companies are teaming up with NGOs and food and other supplies. visible with shortages of essential supplies and care. Similarly, specialized network devices can governments by developing new technology empty supermarket shelves. The backstory reveals be deployed to continuously monitor and detect solutions that can be used to help fight COVID-19 • Drones. The ability to gather data using remote- the global supply chain disruption, production the most common symptoms of respiratory and provide relief to people and businesses. Some operated devices, such as low-cost drones, slowdown, and shortage of raw materials and illness, including increased body temperature and examples deployed in recent months include: assists in monitoring quarantine and moving sub-assemblies. breathing rate, persistent coughs, and accelerated critical supplies during lockdown. In April 2020, heart rates, so that high-risk individuals can be • Connected thermometers. As having a fever the Irish Aviation Authority approved drone In this scenario, IoT can facilitate a real-time remotely monitored without being confined at is one of the basic COVID-19 symptoms, this operator Manna.aero to deliver medicines and view of production programs, inventories, and home or in the hospital. IoT technology allows millions of devices to critical supplies to a dozen households under expected delivery times between all supply chain feed data into a national database that allows confinement in the rural town of Moneygall. participants, thus mitigating supply chain risks. Although government-sponsored contact-tracing for the production of real-time maps showing Delivery works in a closed-loop end-to-end Signals from connected machines supported by initiatives have been put in place by governments at a glance where there are a spike in people system. After a video consultation, local doctors geolocation tags can offer insights into the status across Asia, Latin America, and Europe for the with fevers. Germany, Italy, and other European prescribe medication that is then dropped off of raw materials in factories and the location of duration of the pandemic, the workplace will see countries are incorporating temperature checks at the patient's home by drones, which can upcoming supplies. major transformation post–COVID-19. Enterprises in an overall COVID-19 management regimen. transport up to 4 kg of products each. Other are already considering the introduction of new examples on how drones have been used include: It is only natural that IoT will be a key pillar of technologies to monitor and supervise employees. • Wearables. Sensors that can be worn by digitalization. It is this change in culture and This should not only include non-contact patients and staff allow for the real-time flow of ◦◦ Transporting medical supplies into hotspots philosophy at the industry level that will ensure temperature checks at work, but also related data related to vital signs such as temperature, without putting more human lives at risk, a safe and successful return to economic growth mobile apps that run on employees' phones heart rate, and blood oxygen. One type of smart which is also faster and reduces road traffic and safeguard against future setbacks. 27 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT | 28
The GCI path to economic • Geographical locations that influence the Government policies play a key role in as critical, and noted that their developments movement of goods and people, such as developing advanced factors. Investments in need to be carefully coordinated so that the resilience in the new normal Singapore and the UAE selected advanced factors are needed to help an factors build upon each other synergistically: As economies come to grips with the pandemic economy boost productivity and product quality, Investments in secondary and university and emerge from it, they need to consider how • Demographics, such as the large populations of and move into higher-value sectors that will education support the development of skilled to transform their industries to be competitive China and India or the highly skilled population generate economic wealth and jobs in the new labor and technology research, while digital in the new normal. ICT will be at the forefront of the Czech Republic normal. This is similar to how advanced factors infrastructure supports better national-level of any organization’s strategy from now on. It is can enable a country to enhance its productivity communications and enables new technology imperative that policy makers understand how Basic factors are inherited and require little or no and quality of life and work. Porter outlined innovations, spurring further education and the competitive landscape has changed and new investment to be utilized in the production the following advanced factor endowments research. how to build a national competitive advantage. process. Factor endowments are not static. American Economist Michael Porter argues that With education and training, for example, the an economy’s competitive advantagexi is driven characteristics of the labor force can change. by a differentiating combination of basic and Basic factors alone do not explain how countries Advanced Factor Endowments: Description, Requirements, and Examples more advanced national factor endowments such as Singapore, Japan, and Ireland can grow nurtured in the context of local demand and their economies beyond the advantages that related local suppliers, all working together for basic factors confer. Advanced factor endowments build on each other the national good. Investments in advanced factors can support Advanced Factor Description Requirements Examples Endowment Basic factor endowments are typically hard to economic recovery develop or acquire. For example: 1. Education Investments in general human Skilled labor (teachers) Schools, technical colleges, In contrast to basic factors, advanced factors are capital. Training in languages, and some basic technology internal training, E-based STEM, analytics, design. infrastructure learning • Natural resources, such as oil and gas in Brunei human-made. They are then upgraded through and Saudi Arabia, copper in Chile, timber in reinvestment and innovation to become specialized 2. Technology Investments in technology Skilled labor and research. Electricity, water, schools, 4G/5G Russia, and sand in Egypt factors. According to Porter, these form the basis infrastructure infrastructure, tools for mobility, broadband, Cloud, Edge communications, education, for the sustainable competitive advantages of a skills development, research • Climate that makes certain industries attractive, country. Countries with limited basic factors can such as agriculture in Canada and tourism in (and are often forced to) outcompete their peers 3. Skilled Labor Investments in specific human Education and technology Availability of DevOps, capital, skilled workers with infrastructure deep learning specialists, tropical countries by developing advanced factors. experience who use the radiographers, crane operators technology infrastructure. 4. Communications Ability and willingness to share Technology infrastructure and Common standards, regulations, Basic and Advanced Factor Endowments for National Competitiveness insights, results, and use cases education policies, case studies between individuals, institutions, and companies Advanced factor endowments play a greater role in conferring competitive advantages in the new normal. 5. Research Investments in research into Education, skilled Academic institutions producing best practices, use cases, and labor, technologies and vision statements, research National Factor Endowments standards. communications. papers, standards, guidelines, strategies, plans, case studies A nation’s position in factors of production such as skilled labor or infrastructure necessary to compete: Basic factor endowments. The factors present in a Advanced factor endowments. The result of investment country. Basic factors can provide an initial advantage by people, companies, and governments that are more and must be supported by advanced factors to be used likely to lead to competitive advantages. If a country has successfully no basic factors, it must invest in advanced factors Carefully coordinated investments in advanced these investments can also leverage more basic Natural resources Communications factors can create clusters of related and factors and help them transform their economies Climate Skilled labor supporting industries that further enhance with higher-value products and services. Geographical location Research competitive advantages. In developing countries, Demographics Technology Education Source: Porter’s Competitiveness of Nations 29 | GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX 2020 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT | 30
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