SEPTEMBER 2021 PREAMBLE - www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk - Tree of the month from the 2nd to the 29th September is the Vine for those ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk
SEPTEMBER 2021
PREAMBLE
Tree of the month from the 2nd to the 29th September is the Vine
(for those interested, the grape is a Trollinger red grape, German)Welcome to the September 2021 website entry. I commence with expert prognosis as culled from numerous established books of expertise on the subject. ‘ September often opens with another period of fine dry weather, and between the end of August and 7 September average barometric pressure rises quite distinctly in most parts of the country. Sometimes predominantly dry weather Lasts until 17 September. But 17-25 September that includes the equinox, is generally stormy, the peak being 20 September. Winds during this period blow from the north-west and bring sharp falls in temperature, possibly leading to an early frost in sheltered areas protected from the prevailing winds. The last part of September is known as the ‘old wives summer,’ when nearly every country in Europe recognises a period of fine and warm weather. It is not so common in Britain as on the continent however.’ September has one notable date, the 29th – St Michael’s day – Michaelmass, not only does the purple coloured daisy of that name flower but it is THE vital wind day for the winter. In 2019 it blew from the north-west, a very are event and as warned by our forefathers did indeed bring death, destruction, distress and danger to many, and further more it lasted through to 21st March when many of us in the east had the first easterly winds since that day. I have no doubt this year some sort of normality will return and the winds on the 29th for those on the eastern side of the Pennines from the eastern segment, bringing dryer, cold winds from the east. The further north one travels then the wind is inclined to veer east to north east. For the weather side of the Pennines I would expect winds from the west bringing rain and damper conditions for the month and continuing into the start of October; I must however follow the tried, tested and proven methodology here as repeat, as in June and into the start of July just gone, all the moon phases indicate rain, an, as many discovered rain in June does cause flooding. September has the same moon phases, therefore expect much rain, especially Wales and the north –west as in 2019, the warnings are writ loud and clear and have been for many months now.
On the upside, and it is a positive too, October will not be the normally wet month,
but, due to the easterly airstream from the east, dryer and colder, possible quite
benign at times too, which for many will come as a true blessing. The wind on the
29th September invariably stays with us, through the following wind day on 21st
December (St Thomas’) to the 21st March (St Benedict) before any change of
direction. The wind direction on 11th November (St Martin) sets with 100%
reliability the wind direction until 21st March. The outlook for autumn into both early
and late winter is not as wet as 2019, but colder and somewhat dryer too.
.....................................
September, with good fortune a better month than the two preceding months this
year, starting with some dry fair benign weather in the daytime, but some heavy
overnight dew that is slow to clear in the morning. Hopefully too dry and warm
enough for the farmers to make a late hay harvest after the abysmal wet conditions of
July and early August, so too for the grain farmers, it has been a truly bad year for
most farmer, not forgetting the beet too!
Two events this month, the first is the equinox on the 22 nd which brings stormy
weather and the days start to shorten both at dawn and dusk. The second and this
is vitally important, since the 29th, St Michaelmas, is a day of prediction but more
importantly the wind day until the 21st December. The wind direction on this day will
be the predominant wind direction until 21 st December (and maybe through to 21st
March too); as was seen on 24th June when the wind blew not as expected from the
SW but from the northerly direction, and, as a result we have had a truly cold wet
miserable summer as a result with winds from this northerly segment causing most of
the problems. Therefore the wind direction on this day is vital for the following
weather to the 21st December.
I expect for the eastern side of the UK (east of the Pennines) the wind to come from
the eastern segment, south in Kent from the SE,and as it traverses northwards thento a more easterly direction, maybe over the Scottish border even NE; as such a colder dry wind that brings cold air from the near continence, but his easterly wind originates in the Urals mountains and collects cold as it travels westward towards us. For those on the western side of the Pennines from mid-Wales north to western Scotland I expect a wind from the W/NW segments, bring a lot of rain with it. For the far SW inland as far as Salisbury Plain and northwards to mid-Wales and the midlands a SW/W wind. Not as cold as the NW wind above, but just as wet and quite persistent too. I do not envisage any hard frosts south of the borders, but the usual frost hollows will experience some low cold overnight temperatures [here I have such a frost & fog hollow quite noticeable too as one descends from the higher downs into this valley]. The effect of these winds will not be readily apparent this month – except of course for the seasonal gales – but will come into reckoning next month (October) when I will explain fuller in that entry. It is worth looking at the Autumn(September to November 2021) website entry [click forecasts and then click the right hand agenda on the website front page] to see how this easterly wind will come into play the end of October into November. So all in all, not a bad month ahead; I predicted a poor summer and that, sadly, is what transpired, however as many have noticed, autumn arrived early this year, the summer migrants flew back to Africa on 23rd July and took summer with them – again predicted – since then, with few exceptions, it has been cold and wet. The result of this cold and wet has been a rapid diminution in the colours and variety of wild flowers along the hedgerows from July, the leaves on the trees a very early dark green end of summer colour and feels, and for many, willows and horse-chestnut in particular, but many other trees too turning brown and shedding leaves earlier than normal; the roadsides without colour too, just dark greens, ochres, yellows and browns and decaying vegetation too.
The exceptions to this being thistles, nettles, hogweeds, teasels, ragwort and other such tall seed bearing plants – all of which have masses of seeds for the seed eating smaller birds, and high off the ground too -a sure sign of the ground being frozen/flooded/snow covered later on and as such inaccessible to the smaller ground feeding birds (sparrows, robins, tits, wagtails, wrens etc). Notice too the growth of the ivy and its fruits, vital plant for the smaller birds since it is the only plants that flowers and has nectar all winter; as such it attracts insects, and, since the smaller birds (above) reside in this ivy (it gives waterproof./windproof cover, provides water on the leaves, food from the berries and insect food from the insects) yet another sign of the hard long cold early winter to come. Further signs nature provides on several trees and plants too, a few easy examples; on the underside of the oak leaves, small round spores some brown some reddish called galls, these contain insects. When the winter arrives and the soil in inaccessible to the smaller birds look beneath the oak tree and you will see small specs of black that look like soot, these are these galls that fall from the underside of the leaves providing vital protein food for such birds. For the larger birds, the oak tree leaves caramelise and turn brown,become windproof and waterproof and stay on the tree (see the November data-sheet to see how such leaves tell how hard the winter is going to be) the larger birds, blackbirds, thrushes, starling, jays, pigeons etc use these leaves as cover from the inclement weather. For their food, look now at the acorns (jays fly to the UK from Europe to feast on the acorns over winter too) you will see growths (galls) that are green n colour and look like hedgehogs or artichokes but are in fact galls containing insects (more food protein) for the larger birds – again up off the ground.
Look too at the oak and you will see many oak apples – small round brownish balls called marble galls – the more there are the harder the winter – if you cut them open on 29th September – (see data-sheet for details) they give a reasonable direction of the summer 2022 weather too. The willow leaves too have red pustules on the top surfaces, again more insects for winter bird food. So, by combining the moon phases with the information nature shows us, plus using the old tried tested and proven sayings, adding all this to the wind direction on the 29 th September one can get quite an accurate assessment of the winter to come. The above are just some of the very old observations our esteemed forefathers used, hence the reason why the methodology here uses them too, they are infallible. And, whilst on the subject – Indian Summer – doubtless, several newspapers and other such 'experts' will tell us about, in the event of a warm spell of weather, that this is an Indian summer. Sadly they write and espouse incorrect data. The true Indian summer occurs for five days to a week around the 18 th October (St Luke's little summer) that gives us dry summer calm days and very cold nights – the term comes from the North American Indians (whose moon lore I use too| since it is the best there is) who had this short period for late gathering of foods, berries etc plus hunting to stock up before the true winter arrived. Another sign of the long hard winter to come apart from the jays arriving from Europe for the acorns here, is the arrival of robins too, from the continent, their favourite food being the rowan berries, of which too besides all the abundance of other hips, haws, seeds, fruits and berries, there are massive stocks this year. Look too below the hedgerows to see the orange berries on the green stalks of the lords and ladies plants, food for the small mammals and ground feeing birds, mushrooms and fungi abound, it is a truly bounteous time of the year with blackberries everywhere too. Look too to see how the squirrels are stocking their drays, if as I suspect, a really hard winter to come, they will stock a second/reserve dray with food. It is such
small vital detail as above that all contribute to put all the pieces of the jigsaw into the full picture and the methodology then produces the data I write here. It is all about getting out into the countryside or open spaces, standing and looking to see what nature is doing. At the end of the month too the first northern migrants, the ducks and geese start arriving, followed by the fieldfares, redwings, arctic starlings (brown in colour) and brambling, the countryside, silent since the departure of the summer migrants, but with the indigenous birds, crows rooks, jackdaws, blackbirds woodpeckers etc prominent, becomes alive with these winter visitors. It is a free show too just go outside to see it. TREES :I make no apology for returning to this subject, since trees are a vital part of the UK environment, and ecology in so many ways, just two from a long list, the first is that trees absorb CO2 and discharge vital oxygen (which is why the Victorians planted so many plane and other trees across the cities; in the countryside especially in wetter places and hillsides, trees help stabilise the soil and ground and absorb water, again which is why our forefathers planted so many trees on riverbanks. However, in the 2019 this current government made an election pledge to plant 30000hectares(ha) (75000acres) of trees by 2024 in a bid to reach net zero carbon by 2050. Figures released bhy DEFRA on 5th August 2021 show that just uner 2200ha were planted in 2020/1 in England, down from 2340ha in the previous year which is just 14% of the target. Such figures have been branded as utterly humiliating by opposition politicians, I think a fair comment. Alas with the run up to COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021, the government record looks increasingly tarnished by the day, despite grandiose hyperbole, apart from the above failure, the current committee sitting to assess government efforts concerning
climate change in the UK state that it gets 9/10 for forward planning but only 4/10 for the actuality of such promises. A government, again, heavy on hyperbole and and very light on actual deliverance, but maybe since 2019 promises we are becoming inured to such failures! TALKS: These were suspended/cancelled from 24 th March 2020 due to the pandemic. The situation is now that as from 16 th August 2021, with due diligence concerning the Covid problems, talks are now back on the menu. For those interested, I give a power-point talk that lasts about an hour and twenty minutes, which gives a reasonable outline as to how and why the website operates and the methodology and research that went into it. Every person that attends such a talk will leave with weather information that they can apply at home, and without exception, be the audience be at a University, place of learning, Freemasonry, Probus, gardening club, young farmers, Druids or whatever all have left content with much to think about. There is a standard charge of £50 plus travelling, however I limit the round trip mileage to 180 miles – two hours or so each way. You may use the contact page on the website to make any such enquiries. SOME REALLY ENLIGHTENING NEWS CONCERNING CHALK STREAMS, CHALK STREAMS TO THE UK ARE AS IMPORTANT AS THE AMAZON RAIN FOREST IS TO THE WORLD, WE ARE THE SOLE COUNTRY WITH SUCH CHALK STREAM HABITAT, SADLY THE HS2 PROJECT IS DAMAGING THIS VITAL RESOURCE BEYOND ALL ESXPECTATION, HENCE THE PLEASURE IN SEEING SOME REJUENATION. A chalk stream that feeds into the Norfolk Broads is to be returned to its former glory. The River Bure is one of only 200 chalk streams in the world. A £1.6m project by the National Trust is set to turn the Upper Bure into a haven for wildlife, including water voles, Britain's fastest-declining mammal.
Clusters of wetlands, ditches and ponds will be established beside the stream during the four-year scheme, creating corridors for wildlife. Chalk streams have inspired painters such as John Constable and poets including Sir John Betjeman. "Chalk streams are a quintessential part of the English landscape and have huge ecological value - they're our equivalent of rainforests", Emily Long, the National Trust's project manager, said. "Protecting these special habitats, as well as the species they support, is fundamental in our battle against the biodiversity crisis. "The Bure is one of four main rivers that feeds into the Norfolk Broads and so has a significance beyond its banks in ensuring the health of the UK's largest protected wetland. "Seeing a clear chalk stream rippling over gravels and full of fish is something we should all have the opportunity to experience. "We want people to fall back in love with rivers." The stream, rising in Melton Constable, flows through the National Trust's Felbrigg and Blickling estates. The trust is to plant 8,000 trees along the Upper Bure, slowing the speed at which water runs into the stream, as part of the project, boosting resilience to climate change. Amy Prendergast, catchment co-ordinator for the Environment Agency, described the stream as "precious", added: "We hope this project will address key pressures in the Upper Bure, which will help fish populations." Source ITV 15/8/2021 & others. Finally we might just see at the end of August some warmer finer weather to finish this truly miserable summer; remember please, just because Covid restrictions have been eased, it does not mean this damnable virus has gone away – it hasn';t, please stay safe and take care. @ David King Edenbridge August 2021
SEPTEMBER 2021
NEW MOON = 7th @ 0152hrs = Fair
1st QUARTER MOON = 13th @ 2139hrs = Rainy
FULL MOON 21st @ 0055hrs = Fair
LAST QUARTER MOON 29th @ 0257hrs = Cold & rain showers
DoP = 29th St Michael (Michaelmass) + Quarter Day
Autumnal Equinox 22nd @ 1431hrs.
Highest spring tides 7th to 12th AND 20th to 25th
APOGEE 26th @ 2245hrs: PERIGEE 11th @ 1107hrs.
MET OFFICE NOTES: 1st to 17th Quiet period. BUCHAN NOTES : none.
1st St Giles Fair on the first - fair for the month. First three days of the
month rule the weather for October, November and December.
5th Maybe this day is a better unofficial indicator than 24th August of dryer
weather.
8th Feast of the Nativity As today so for the next 4 weeks.
11th Perigee @ 1107hrs
14th Holy Cross/Rood Day – traditionally children were freed from school or work
so they could collect nuts. Passion flower blooms about this time.
15th Said to be fine day 6/7 years
19th A storm from the south indicates a mild winter may be expected.
20th - 22nd Barley set winds, 2/3 days of strong winds.
21st St Mathew Brings the cold rain and dew, also 'shuts up the bees.'
22nd Autumn Equinox @ 1431hrs = expect gales. September blow soft until fruits
in loft. If weather warm today, the season should be fine, bright and clear this
day, brings good wine in the next year. The day darkness overtakes light
26th Apogee @ 2245hrs.
29th St Michael (Michaelmass). DoP. Quarter day. If it coincides with full moon will
be a reliable guide for the next 45 days. An important quarter day for winds,
invariably giving the wind direction for the next three months (to 21stDecember). Michaelmass daisy flowers So many days the old
moon is - so many floods after.
The full moon this month is called the harvest moon.
Tree of the month 2nd to 29th is the vine, thereafter the Ivy.
General Notes and Comments
The name of the month comes from the old Roman word Septem, meaning seven,
because in the Roman calendar it was the 7th month.
The month of the patroness of Fruit trees and fruit - the Goddess Pomona. The
‘wood month’ when wood was gathered to lay-in for winter. The month of
‘shedding’ of leaves, and fruit etc.
The month of weather extremes.
St Michael is also known as Goose day, when it is said that Queen Elizabeth I was
eating goose when the news of the victory of the Spanish Armada arrived; in
celebration said henceforth she would always eat goose that day.
The Goose Fair at Nottingham is the most famous, but there are others too.
Eat a goose on Michaelmass Day, want not for money all the year.
It is said that if the breast bones of the goose are brown after roasting, then a mild
winter to come; if however they are white or have a bluish hue then the winter
will be severe.[Editor’s note: I have not be able to test this saying, therefore I
put it here in the hope that someone may be able to throw light on this
please.]
St Michaels Day -Quarter Day - Day of Prediction. If it coincides with full moon will
be reliable guide for the next 45 days. [A fairly dependable indication as to the
wind direction. Beware however for this occurs around the period of
Equinoxes gales and may give a false reading locally. If gales coincide with
the Quarter Day wait for 2 days for the wind to settle after the gales have
subsided and then get direction.]
September is however a most unpredictable month and one should not be quick to
jump to conclusions, as above.
If St Michael brings many acorns, Christmas will cover the fields in snow.
Foxgloves and Hollyhocks shed their leaves at the end of summer.
As in September, so next March - and is often correct.
Normally less rain than August. Average 80mm/3.5ins.If birds migrate early, indicates an early winter. If swallows fly off with summer,
geese arrive with winter.
If you crack open an Oak-apple on Michaelmass Day it reveals one of seven
conditions. Each pattern predicts a different weather pattern for the year.
These prophecies are accurate 9/10 years:- 1. If spiders - there follows a
naughty year. 2. If flies - A meetly good year. 3. If empty - a great dearth
follows. 4. If lean - a hot dry summer. 5. If moist - a moist summer. 6. If
kernel fair and clear - summer shall be fair and corn good too. 7. If many
and ripen early - an early winter, and very much snow shall be before
Christmas and that it shall be cold.
Strong winds start this month and reach their peak on the 21st - about he time of the
Equinox. These are called barleyset winds (barley harvest time).
There are generally three consecutive windy days about the middle of the month.
Windy barley harvest winds. Barleyset winds.
15th - Said to be fine 6/7 years. In fact, for any annual fixture dependant upon fine
weather it would be difficult to choose a better date than the 15th.
20th, 21st & 22nd - These three days rule the weather for October, November and
December.
St Mathew (21st) brings the cold rain and dew, he also ’shut-up’ the bees.
When a cold spell occurs in September and passes off without a frost, a frost will not
occur until the same time in October.
Thunder in September indicates a good crop of fruit and grain for next year.
When September has been rainy, the following May is generally dry, and when May
is dry, September is apt to be wet. [check previous readings] The above is
not really reliable - however - if May is well above the average for rain then
the same can be said for September being above average for rain too.
AND
If May is drier than average then September is likely to be drier than average too.
All these from local personal figures.
If acorns abound in September, snow will be deep in December. [true]
If the storms in September clear off warm, all the storms the following winter will be
warm.
A fine Michaelmass sets all in tune. (fine weather until Martinmass (11th November).
On Michaelmass the devil puts his foot on blackberries.
If it does not rain on St Michael and Gallus (16th October), the following spring will
be dry and propitious. (good omen).When summer meets winter it is a good augury for the coming spring.
September dries up the ditches or breaks down bridges.
If bunches of nuts do hang on branches after leaf-fall, it betokened a frosty winter
with much snow. (true)
During the second half of September, if a hard winter is due, the Robin will develop
territory close to the house.
London September average rainfall 49mms (1.3ins).
Both droughts and floods are more likely to occur in September than August.
Gallas is 16/10.
A heavy apple crop points to a fine August and September.
The month to celebrate the fruit of the wine.
The month of conkers.
THE FULL MOON THIS MONTH IS CALLED HARVEST MOON or CORN MOON
Tree of the month from 2nd to 29th is Vine. Thereafter the Ivy.
MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR EDENBRIDGE (USING 1981-2010 FIGURES)
Mean Max: 20.8C Mean Min: 9.2C Mean Avg: 15C
Rainfall: 64.6mm Sunshine: 185.8hrs
Whilst I appreciate the above are local figures, it will be an indication of what the
averages are, and, of course there will be local variations. Such variations
can be found by trawling the various weather websites, or by using the superb
data found in the Climatologists Observers Link website.
The following figures are for the average temperature at 12 noon and again at 4pm,
taken at the beginning and again at the end of the month.
1st 20.9C 20.7C
30th 16.3C 17.1C
@ David King Edenbridge August 2020Sep-21
Date Day Moon Weather DoP Saint/Holy Other Apogee Equinox Met Buchan Super- Highest
Day Day Perigee Eclipse Office moon tides
01/09/2021 W St Giles Quiet NONE
02/09/2021 T period
03/09/2021 F 1st
04/09/2021 S to
05/09/2021 S 17th
06/09/2021 M ]
07/09/2021 T New @ Fair ] 7th
08/09/2021 W 0152 hrs Feast of the ] to
09/09/2021 T nativity ] the
10/09/2021 F ] 12th
11/09/2021 S Perigee ] "" .
12/09/2021 S 1107 hrs ] ""
13/09/2021 M 1st Q @ Rainy ]
14/09/2021 T 2139 hrs Holy Cross ]
15/09/2021 W ]
16/09/2021 T ]
17/09/2021 F ]
18/09/2021 S
19/09/2021 S
20/09/2021 M barley set winds 20th
21/09/2021 T Full @ Fair St Mathew 20 th - to
22/09/2021 W 0055 hrs 22nd Autumnal the
23/09/2021 T equinox 25th
24/09/2021 F ""
25/09/2021 S ""
26/09/2021 S Apogee
27/09/2021 M 2245 hrs
28/09/2021 T
29/09/2021 W LQ @ Cold & YES Michaelmass Quarter day
30/09/2021 T 0257 hrs rain showersSheet1
DATE Chandler& Gregory Brooks Lamb Buchan Met Office Season
Barry & Perry
01/09/21 1st - 17th none 1st -17th 18-6 -9+/9
02/09/21 Anti-cyclonic quiet high
03/09/21 period summer
04/09/21
05/09/21 5th -30th
th th
06/09/21 6 - 19 old wives
07/09/21 dry summer
08/09/21 especially east peak day
09/09/21 & central peak day
10/09/21 England peak day Peak day 10-9 to
11/09/21 19/11/21
12/09/21 autumn
13/09/21
14/09/21
15/09/21
16/09/21 peak days 16th -21st
th th
17/09/21 17 - 24 peak day
18/09/21 stormy peak day
19/09/21 peak day
20/09/21 peak day
21/09/21
22/09/21
23/09/21
24/09/21 gales liable
25/09/21 around this date
26/09/21 cyclonic quite common
27/09/21
28/09/21
29/09/21
30/09/21 peak day
Page 1You can also read
