#ScotPAMS15 Scotland's Census 2021 - Amy Wilson Head of Census
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#ScotPAMS15
Scotland’s Census 2021
Amy Wilson
Head of Census
What going to cover
• Current key messages and context
• Success and challenge from previous censuses
• Noteworthy uses, benefits and products
• Scotland’s Census in numbers – a predominantly online
survey…
• Scotland’s Census 2021 - high level design
• Importance of understanding user needs – topic
consultation
#ScotPAMS15
2021 - key messages
• NRS is planning to conduct a census in Scotland in 2021
• Designed and managed in Scotland; to best meet the needs of its
users
• It will: - provide invaluable information, not available elsewhere
- be conducted primarily online
- make best use of technology and digital services
- require the support and contribution of others to ensure
success, in particular participation by all of the people of
Scotland
- make best use of other existing data to support its delivery
- continue to protect the personal information of all.
#ScotPAMS15
Context
• Over 150 years of planning and managing the census in
Scotland
• Will build on those previous censuses
• Societal and technological changes – related
expectations and changing attitudes re. privacy
– Speed of change continues to increase
• Economic context and public sector finances
#ScotPAMS15
Building on successes of 2011
• NRS conducted all aspects of the entire operation, including data
processing, for the first time
• Positive engagement with users and other stakeholders
• Inclusion of several new topics in the census including some unique
to Scotland
• A high level of overall response – 94%
• Introduction of an online response option – around 20%
• More flexible means of dissemination and analysis of an increased
range of census data via the Scotland’s Census website
• More work to support and encourage use and understand benefits
• Delivered under budget
#ScotPAMS15
Learning from 2011
• As first time conducting entire process, an inevitably steep learning
curve
– Areas that could be improved upon for future censuses
• It took longer to produce outputs than was originally intended
– A variety of issues contributed but it undoubtedly had an impact on our users and
the utility of the data
• Managing expectations throughout entire process – e.g. timing and
impact on data of disclosure procedures
• NRS undertook efforts to involve users in output production phase
but not always possible.
– Need focus on ways to continually retest requirements and priorities
• If you have others, hope you share with us in the workshop
#ScotPAMS15
Noteworthy products and uses
www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk
#ScotPAMS15
Noteworthy products and uses
www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk
Parliamentary profiles
#ScotPAMS15
Noteworthy products and uses
#ScotPAMS15
Noteworthy products and uses
www.scotland.datashine.org.uk
#ScotPAMS15Noteworthy products and uses
Church of Scotland – Statistics for Mission
#ScotPAMS15Noteworthy products and uses
Fife Council – Know Fife
#ScotPAMS15Time for a quick census survey/ test
• Can the PAMS Conference cope with a ‘predominantly online’
survey?
• Time to get your (smart)phones/ tablets etc out
• If you’ve got mobile internet (and coverage) great!
• If you wish to connect to the zoo wifi, it shouldn’t require a password
• Open your device’s internet browser
• If you are digitally excluded, have problems, would rather complete
the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15Please take part in our census survey
‘Internet Access Code’ is:
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties, first speak to
those in your community – can they help?
• If they cannot help, please raise your hand
• If you would rather complete the survey on paper, please raise both
your hands
• Non-response follow up will begin in 3 minutes
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is:
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
Q1&2 of 8
Around how many temporary field staff were employed in relation to the
Scotland's Census 2011 Programme? 3,000 5,000 or 7,000
And approximately how many hours (in total, combined) did they work?
260,000 370,000 or 480,000
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is:
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
Q3 How many telephone enquiries did NRS (then GROS) receive at
the time of the 2011 Census?
80,000
140,000
200,000
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is: ow.ly/VgNpC
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
Q4 How many tables of data has NRS published from the 2011
Census? (N.B. Many broken down to over 56,000 geographies)
2,000
4,000
6,000
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is: ow.ly/VgNpC
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
Q5 Although not promoted particularly strongly, around what % of
people were included in online responses?
5%
10%
20%
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is: ow.ly/VgNpC
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
Q6 Have you accessed any government services online? e.g. road tax,
council tax, other?
Yes
No
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is: ow.ly/VgNpC
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
Q7 And (we had to ask on the data!) what was the population of
Scotland at the time of the 2011 Census?
5,295,403
5,394,502
5,493,205
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is:ow.ly/VgNpC
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
Q8 Question the last is this. With the imminent release of a new Star
Wars movie in mind, how many apparent Jedis were there in Scotland
in 2011?
14,000
41,000
114,000
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test
‘Internet Access Code’ is: ow.ly/VgNpC
[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]
• Please note the PAMS census survey will close in 30 seconds
• Non-response follow up action will now begin
• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather
complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.
#ScotPAMS15PAMS census survey/ test outputs
• You don’t really need to wait until 2023!
• We will produce them as quickly as possible for 2021
• But perhaps not quite as fast as today…
#ScotPAMS152021 – High level timeline
• Research, design and prototyping (2015 - 2017)
• Testing, development and legislation (2018 -
2020)
• Collection and Operations (2020 - 2021)
• Analysis, Output and Dissemination (2021 -
2024)
#ScotPAMS152021 – High level design
Planned developments from 2011:
• Predominantly online data collection
• Post out instead of enumerator delivery and
flexible follow up
• Increased use of existing/ administrative data
#ScotPAMS15Predominantly online
• Would expect online self response to be high
quality and cheaper to capture
• Should lead to quicker outputs
• Still may be a place for paper
• Balance to be struck between Quality –
Participation – Cost
• Of course brings challenges too - workshop
#ScotPAMS15Post out and flexible follow up
• 2011 – 95% hand delivery
• High quality address register, enumerators acted
as back up
• Moving to post out only relies on that high quality
register
• We will need to test the quality - over time and in
different areas
#ScotPAMS15Post out
Post out IAC to areas
most likely to require
support
Staggered post out IAC
Census Day
to most of Scotland
Post out IAC to
areas most likely
to be disengaged
-20 -15 -10 -5
Days before Census
#ScotPAMS15Follow up
1st 2nd … and so
reminder reminder on
letter letter
Census Day
Start field work in hardest to count areas
Start field work in other hard to count areas
Start field work in easier to count areas
Start field work in easiest to count areas
+1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Weeks after Census
#ScotPAMS15Use of administrative data
• Opportunities for admin data in planning,
carrying out and quality assuring the census
• Use to ID hard to count areas/ direct resources/
prioritise follow up
• Also (perhaps) in processing
• But also risks of becoming dependent on admin
data which changes or stops being available
#ScotPAMS152021 – High level design – in summary
Internet
Returns
Post out Capture Complete
Data Coverage
Access codes and code Database
cleaning Adjustment
and forms data
Paper
Returns
#ScotPAMS15Understanding user needs
UKSA – ‘Strengthening user engagement’
“The use and utility of statistics should drive the development of the service. It must be
the basis for all decisions about:
• Which statistical outputs to produce;
• The form they should take; and
• The balance between the resources devoted to their collection and the resources
given to supporting their use.”
• Current consultation first formal step towards understanding
user needs for 2021
• Will use responses to build on picture and current knowledge
from previous activity
#ScotPAMS15Topic Consultation
• Conducting consultation primarily online
• Open until 15 January 2016
• Responses will be published
• Report our response to the consultation
around Spring 2016
• Workshop session will explore our initial
view and seek discussion
#ScotPAMS15Questions/ further information
• Questions?
• Topic consultation:
www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/consultation-
2021
• E-mail:
scotlandscensus@nrscotland.gov.uk
#ScotPAMS15Tea & Coffee time!
Next up: Scotland’s Census - Workshops
These workshops will run twice in this session
• 1 & 4) 2021 Topic Consultation
• 2 & 5) A “predominantly online census”
• 3 & 6) What other lessons should we learn?
#ScotPAMS15You can also read
