Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry - Value Beyond Compliance series September 2019 - Deloitte
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Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Value Beyond Compliance series Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry Value Beyond Compliance series September 2019 1
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Contents Contents Introduction............................................................................................. 1 Global automotive industry overview.................................................. 2 Case study: Thailand – the Detroit of Asia............................................ 3 Local automotive industry overview.................................................... 5 Case study: The South African policy landscape.................................. 6 Enabling localisation............................................................................... 8 Deloitte Africa: Lessons from the trenches ......................................10 Deloitte Africa’s ESD framework........................................................... 11 The road ahead.....................................................................................12 Contacts..................................................................................................13 Endnotes.................................................................................................14
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Value Beyond Compliance series “We want the industry to be globally competitive, but competitiveness is not just a function of what happens on the factory floor.” – Trade and Industry Minister Ebrahim Patel1
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Introduction Introduction Manufacturing is often seen as a gateway to inclusive growth. It has the potential to create jobs, deepen and broaden local value chains, advance technology and cultivate local skills. As such, numerous countries,2 like South Africa, have solidified manufacturing as the cornerstone of their industrial policies.3 The automotive industry is part of the manufacturing basket, and so many developing economy governments 4 have incentivised domestic automotive manufacturing. For some countries, such as Thailand, this investment has also contributed to deep socio-economic gains. However, other countries have not realised their full potential. In addition, the global automotive industry is now experiencing slowing demand and manufacturing volumes as a result, making government incentives increasingly important to retain global automotive manufacturers. The South African automotive industry employed around 110 000 people directly and contributed 6.8% (4.3% manufacturing and 2.5% retail) to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018.5 The government has recognised the importance of well-designed automotive incentives, supporting the industry through consecutive industry incentive programmes.6 Yet, when compared to other emerging countries with local automotive manufacturing, localisation remains relatively weak. Figure 1. South Africa: local content (%) of the automotive industry 60% 50% 46.60% 40.90% 41.50% 38.70% 40% 30% The South African 20% government has 10% recognised the importance of 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 well-designed Local content SAAM target automotive Source: Black, et al., 20187 incentives. South Africa’s latest automotive policy, the South African Automotive Masterplan (SAAM), aims to rectify this by broadening and deepening local value chains and embedding industry into the domestic economy. Meaningful localisation, at its core, forms part of value beyond compliance:8 it supports innovation and productivity, and aligns economic performance with social progress, thus driving inclusive growth. This report investigates enabling localisation factors as compiled from industry interviews, while unpacking the South African automotive context and supplementing it with corresponding international best practice, and Deloitte Africa’s own experience in meaningful localisation and value beyond compliance practices. 1
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Global automotive industry overview Global automotive industry overview Globally, there is a symbiotic relationship Globally, tier 2/remaining tier suppliers between the automotive industry and dominate the automotive supply chain and governments: the automotive industry are responsible for 50% of value addition depends on government incentives to (Figure 2). These suppliers often drive improve viability, while governments localisation and are important to deepen support automotive industries to spur skills, employment and value chains in the economic development. host country.14 The automotive industry often relies Figure 2. Global value addition on this support, with net profit margins composition (% of total value addition) relatively low – mostly single digits.9 The Tier 2/remaining dependence was recently highlighted when Ford, Holden and Toyota’s manufacturing tier suppliers 20% plants in Australia closed due to a lack OEMs often drive of government support, with many local suppliers (and jobs) following suit.10 localisation and 30% are important to The automotive industry – defined Tier 1 suppliers in this report as the automotive manufacturing sector – usually consists deepen skills, of three categories, all of which can 50% employment and create employment opportunities in the producing country: Tier 2/remaining tier suppliers value chains in •• Original Equipment Manufacturers the host country. (OEMs) Design, assemble and market the Source: Black, et al., 201815 final automotive product, and, on This typical global composition, however, occasion, manufacture equipment for it. requires conducive domestic business, Components are typically procured from economic and policy environments to suppliers according to the OEM’s specific support local suppliers. criteria.11 Examples: BMW, Ford, Mercedes Benz, Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen •• Tier 1 suppliers Manufacture components and/or systems according to specified criteria. These firms supply OEMs directly. Inputs into these parts and systems are typically procured from the tier 2/remaining tier suppliers.12 Examples: Bosch and Continental •• Tier 2/remaining tier suppliers The tier 2/remaining tier suppliers produce parts and/or raw materials throughout the automotive industry value chain. Importantly, these suppliers usually serve multiple industries and not exclusively the automotive industry.13 Examples: Aluminium, plastic and steel industries 2
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Global automotive industry overview Case study: Thailand – the Detroit of Asia Figure 3. Thailand’s automotive structure Thailand has made great strides in realising its automotive aspirations. Over a 60-year period, the country has transitioned from an assembler to a top automotive 31 manufacturing and export hub. Its success has attracted OEMs leading global automakers, assemblers and component manufacturers. This progress is evident in the numbers. Thailand’s automotive production increased by 383% from 2000 to 2017.17 There are 31 assemblers and over 2 000 suppliers located in Thailand, which produced around 2.2 million vehicles in 2018. This local production caters for most of the local demand, meeting over 95% thereof. In addition, local production amounted to US$30bn in foreign revenue with around 55% of cars and 60% of commercial vehicles exported. It is thus no surprise that the automotive sector constitutes approximately 12% of GDP. This all translates 386 ~1 700 into employment: the automotive sector employs around Tier 2/remaining tier 850 000 people.18 This has also led to various training Tier 1 suppliers suppliers initiatives, upskilling people in lifelong and, often, industry- transferrable skills. Source: Maikaew, 201916 The success described above required long-term strategic and concerted efforts. Pragmatic, coherent and dynamic government policies were, and remain, integral to the success of the industry. Figure 4. Thai automotive policy development Initial phase Investment Export Domestic Industrial Export Green automotive promotion promotion automotive part re-engineering production base base manufacturing promotion 1961 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2012 •• Focus on •• Focus on •• Support •• Introduce •• Establish •• Introduce •• Develop import automotive automotive trade the Thailand the Thailand Thailand substitution industry assembly agreements Automotive Automotive Automotive promotion Institute (TAI) Industry Industry •• Focus on •• Promote Master Plan Master Plan •• Decrease and promote targeted •• Introduce 2007–2011 2012–2016 import tariffs exports manufacturing: the Thailand and 2017–2021 5 C parts for Automotive •• Promote •• Support the pickup Industry eco-friendly •• Focus on green domestic truck Master Plan investment automotives manufacturing 2002–2006 and vehicles, by introducing •• Vision 2027: and export localisation •• Define vision Global Green 50% of rate Automotive •• Introduce the production Research and first product Development champion (R&D) base Source: Thailand Automotive Institute, 2012,19 and Deloitte Africa research 3
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Global automotive industry overview The Thai government used a phased This was not the only policy that approach to attract OEMs and benefit contributed to automotive development. from the automotive industry. After The government also created strategic focussing on protectionist measures, the trade agreements with key countries such Thai government shifted its attention as Australia, China and India, yet another to attracting multinational automotive benefit to automotive exporters. These manufacturers, promoting exports and agreements assisted OEMs to tap into building local capacity for greater export the growing regional middle class, and to production. source raw materials.25 Importantly, the objectives were generally However, Thailand’s policy is also dynamic clear, with incentives, investment and and adjusts to the changing internal and Given the global growth aligned to support the objectives.20 external environment. Given the global For example, Thailand’s automotive trend of moving towards digital and green trend of moving industry focussed on producing select automotive solutions, Thailand’s current vehicles (appropriately called the product policy iteration focusses on promoting towards digital and champion) and components locally.21 This strategy narrowed the scope of green vehicles. Subsequent incentive schemes have been established to support green automotive local vehicle manufacturing and thus its 2027 Vision of becoming the Global solutions, components, increasing volumes and Green Automotive R&D base.26 For example, improving economies of scale. Policy was Thailand has already attracted electric Thailand’s current developed to support specific investment vehicle (EV) investment from Nissan, Toyota as well as local demand for these vehicles.22 and Honda by introducing applicable tax policy iteration By focussing incentives and support on targeted areas, Thailand was able to breaks.27 focusses on deepen the relevant supply chains. These comprehensive and targeted policy promoting green reforms, alongside economic stability, well- Notably, Thailand also concentrated developed infrastructure and upskilling vehicles. on developing local skills, including for the local labour force, have proven strong lower tier suppliers, often by entering drivers for the Thai automotive industry. into strategic partnerships and sharing the responsibility of transferring the needed skills to domestic suppliers and employees.23 The government also introduced industrial policy which linked to the abovementioned objectives. These policies translated into practical benefits for multinationals; including exemptions on corporate income tax and import duties on machinery and raw materials, immigration permits for experts, land ownership options and supercluster automotive zone benefits.24 4
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Local automotive industry overview Local automotive industry overview For decades, the automotive industry has been fundamental to South Africa’s economy. It contributed 6.8% (4.3% manufacturing and 2.5% retail) to GDP in 2018. In addition, automotive exports are valued at nearly R180bn, and comprised 14.3% of South African exports.28 Moreover, in 2018 the industry employed around 110 000 people (across vehicle and component manufacturing),29 producing over half a million vehicles.30 This makes South Africa the largest automotive producer in Africa (54.3%) with many of the major OEMs operating in South Africa. However, Morocco – the second largest African producer – has increased production significantly, and produces more passenger cars than South Africa.31 Figure 5. South African automotive industry key 2018 statistics 4.3% manufacturing 110 000 6.8% people employed across vehicle and component manufacturers contribution to GDP 610 854 2.5% retail vehicles produced Source: Automotive Industry Export Council, 2019,32 and Davies, 201833 While the sector is important to the South African economy, the low and Figure 6. South African automotive value addition decreasing level of local content (see Figure 1) remains distressing. In 2015, composition (% of total value addition) local content was recorded at 38.7% – below some of our automotive peers and the current SAAM target of 60%. This is challenging for the domestic economy – localisation drives employment and skills development – and for the automotive industry in particular. By importing goods, the automotive industry is exposed to exchange rate volatility, something the rand is renowned for as one of the most traded emerging market currencies.34 40% OEMs As shown in Figure 6, the structure of South Africa’s automotive industry is dominated by OEMs and tier 1 suppliers, with few tier 2/remaining tier suppliers. In comparison (Figure 2), the tier 2/remaining tier suppliers typically contribute 50% value addition to the automotive industry globally relative to South Africa’s 20%. 40% Tier 1 suppliers This is exacerbated by the lack of volumes and inadequate local production capabilities.36 Volumes are important in utilising economies of scale: 20% significant volumes decrease input costs, making production economical. Local lower tier suppliers thus often struggle to deploy economies of scale, skills and advanced technologies. Tier 2/ remaining tier There are more challenges, all of which affect small suppliers more than suppliers their downstream counterparts. Inconsistent electricity supply, fragmented transport infrastructure and low business confidence plague the South African economy.37 Rectifying these inefficiencies and supporting small local Source: Black, et al., 201835 suppliers, in this environment, are crucial for their survival. 5
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Local automotive industry overview Case study: The South African policy landscape The Thai case study above highlighted some key areas for developing an automotive production hub. Government policies are pivotal, and should be practical, simple, targeted and aligned. South African automotive policy, much like Thailand’s, began with an inward focus. At the start of the 1960s, policy prioritised local content for local consumption. This started to change in the late 1980s with later phases of the local content programme. Post-democracy saw liberalisation increase further with the Motor Industry Government policies Development Programme (MIDP), which reduced tariffs at an even faster rate.38 are pivotal, and In 2013, the MIDP was replaced by the Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP). Although both these programmes aimed to increase production should be practical, volumes, the MIDP focussed on exports, while the APDP shifted focus to increasing production in general. Both these policies, however, were accompanied by stable, simple, targeted and if not declining, levels of localisation.39 aligned. Figure 7. South African automotive policy landscape – focus on localisation Local content MIDP APDP SAAM programmes and amendments to and phase 1 extension of APDP 1961 1995 2013 2018 •• Localisation was •• Prioritise •• Shift away from •• Promote higher used to protect liberalisation to solely exports, degree of foreign exchange increase volume towards supporting localisation (target production set at 60%) •• Further phases •• No local content in general were introduced, requirement •• Support local value (irrespective of with phase 6 addition – shift from •• Focus on market) introduced in 1989 Vehicle Assembly exports Allowance (VAA) to Volume Assembly Localisation Allowance (VALA) Source: Black, et al., 2018;40 and Davies, 201841 6
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Local automotive industry overview In 2018, the South African Cabinet approved the extension of the APDP to 2035 with amendments which align with the new automotive policy document, the SAAM 2035. Importantly, the SAAM gives a clear vision and sets objectives for the industry – a crucial element of policy certainty for the automotive industry.42 The SAAM’s vision: “A globally competitive and transformed industry that actively contributes to the sustainable development of South Africa’s productive economy, creating prosperity for industry stakeholders and broader society.” Key summary of SAAM: •• “Achieve 1% of global vehicle production by 2035 (increase from current 600 000 units to almost 1.4 million units a year) •• Increase local content from current 39% to 60% •• Double employment in the value chain from current levels to about 240 000 •• Achieve at least level 4 BEE status from 2021 •• Support to be based on value addition rather than production sales value.” Source: Davies, 201843 The SAAM and APDP policies are widely regarded as supportive and well-developed, with the changes focussed on creating greater opportunities for local suppliers. The SAAM targets 60% local content with the extended APDP moving away from VAA towards VALA.44 The latter excludes imported content and is expected to drive greater localisation, compelling OEMs and tier 1 suppliers to source locally.45 Yet, the SAAM and APDP do not function in isolation. There are multiple government departments which influence the automotive industry through different policies, e.g. the promotion of EVs. The APDP, the Green Transport Strategy and the EV Roadmap all aim to support EV production. However, government and the industry have yet to finalise a comprehensive and aligned plan.46 South Africa would benefit from better alignment across policies, not only in the EV space, to support the industry’s vision.47 Misalignment frequently also extends across industries. Alignment is especially important for tier 2/remaining tier suppliers, who globally tend to supply multiple industries rather than solely the automotive industry. 7
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Enabling localisation Enabling localisation The latest policy changes have heightened the emphasis on localisation, intentionally shifting focus from imported to local content. Nevertheless, the desired level and quality of localisation require determination. Local suppliers need to be grown and/or created; if done properly, this will benefit all stakeholders in the long run. Below are insights on developing meaningful localisation drawn from interviews conducted with various automotive stakeholders.48 Three key themes emerged: Figure 8. Key localisation enablers The will Volumes Upskilling Drive efficiency gains Increase volumes Cultivate the local skills in the: by promoting: base by focussing on: •• public sector •• regional integration •• individual business needs such as structural reforms, alignment •• incentives for locally •• continuous business of efforts, special economic zones and produced vehicles development administrative efficiencies •• cross-industry value chains •• private sector such as OEM collaboration and transparency Source: Deloitte Africa interviews and research The will The best automotive vision means procure from, and supporting economic and consistent power supply are typical little without the will to follow through. growth, thus increasing automotive benefits of SEZs. This requires proper regulation, demand. In addition, this could assist in implementation and, importantly, the addressing low–hanging fruit, such as Government processes, furthermore, will to change inefficient structures and scrap metal localisation, and rail and port often lead to unintended administrative systems in both the public and private efficiency.50 burdens. This is especially damaging sectors. for smaller businesses with limited The issue of will also relates to Special administrative capacity. For example, This starts with the South African business Economic Zones (SEZs), which could VAT administration can be cumbersome, environment.49 Structural reforms are often be used more efficiently. Many resulting in wasted resources, and refunds vital for broader economic efficiency small suppliers do not have access to are often slow, resulting in cash flow gains. Although reforms do not specifically these advantageous zones, leading to difficulties. This also applies to incentive target the automotive industry, the impact higher production costs and limited schemes, with some small businesses on it could be two-fold: stimulating local exposure to technical expertise. For finding incentive programmes difficult to business for the automotive industry to example, preferential electricity pricing access, and finding the process slow. 8
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Enabling localisation Overall, strategy and policy efforts that SSA production could increase to a for example, is plastics. Plastics are used should be aligned and more holistic projected 2.05 million units.51 As Deloitte in multiple industries, including the to pursue strategic interest areas. This Africa has stated previously, it is not automotive industry (e.g. plastic injection), includes targeted trade strategies to unfathomable to see this market as the and are currently being produced as a by- decrease tariffs and unlock volume, as “final frontier for the global automotive product in South Africa. well as prioritising specific value chains for industry”.52 South Africa is well positioned local development. Progress needs to be as the anchor economy, which is an monitored and evaluated to keep parties opportunity the country cannot afford to Upskilling accountable. waste. However, markets in SSA are fraught with challenges: these include inadequate Efficiency gains are also required from the logistics, overlapping trade agreements, Business excellence is no easy feat. With private sector. Collaboration between insufficient financing options, and the focus on local manufacturers, some OEMs is central: clustering incentives and misalignment across policies. In addition, of whom may not yet exist, the industry opportunities will give greater support to these markets tend to be dominated by needs to understand what type of small business. This could also assist OEMs second-hand vehicles.53 upskilling small suppliers require. This likely and tier 1 suppliers in finding a supplier entails a wide range of development, from base. A unified approach to information Moreover, African markets are vastly technical training in R&D centres, to basic sharing and utilising small local suppliers different, and it requires time and effort to financial and management training on can thus assist everyone in the sector. understand local conditions. It is important business readiness. to develop targeted product strategies per Moreover, small local suppliers need country (or even per city), and establish As is often the case in South Africa, the transparency and adeptness from local and international partnerships to skills spread is wide.60 This often leads to OEMs for business planning and overcome current barriers. Nonetheless, blanket-approach incubation programmes forecasting. Current and potential small there are opportunities. Progress has being less effective. Skills training should suppliers often do not understand the been made with some African countries cater for the individual business opportunities available in the industry, revising or developing automotive policies needs (see section titled Deloitte Africa: exacerbating difficulties in identifying (including legislation to curb second- Lessons from the trenches). For example, opportunities and planning. This also hand vehicle importation)54 and the SSA some suppliers need to acquire better relates to current processes, where some Automotive Pact Task Team investigating technology – giving small local suppliers payment terms are lengthy, creating cash regional integration.55 the opportunity to leapfrog to the next flow challenges for small businesses. This level of productivity. For others, they is worsened by the naturally low profit South Africa also has opportunities for may need to acquire negotiation and margins of the automotive industry. economies of scale. Volumes can be forecasting skills training.61 Depending on stimulated by incentivising South the need, it could be beneficial to partner African consumers to buy locally with global experts to increase local Volumes produced vehicles. This can come in competency. Once again, this requires a various forms: Thailand uses import targeted approach. duties,56 India offers upfront subsidies Economies of scale are essential for an with EV purchases,57 Kenya plans to Additionally, continuous business industry with low profit margins. Scale is limit second-hand car imports,58 and development is crucial for long-term one of the greatest challenges facing the China incentivises the acceleration of success (and the lack thereof is partly South African automotive industry, with auto replacement.59 As a World Trade noted for the failure of past incubation current production volumes around Organisation (WTO) member, South Africa programmes). Long-term coaching, 600 000 vehicles. With the domestic would need to investigate these different especially throughout the business economy weak, and unlikely to yield options, ensuring the country complies life cycle, assists in dealing with new- significantly more demand in the short with international trade regulation. found challenges. This requires regular term, it is crucial for the industry to find check-ins, and embedded incubation alternative methods to stimulate demand. Furthermore, volumes for tier 2/remaining practices, processes and systems. Another tier suppliers can be increased by consideration is having incubation One such way is through regional deepening the cross-industry value programmes in industrial parks or SEZs. integration. The middle class in Sub- chains (and not solely focussing on the This would give small businesses access to Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to automotive industry). This is done globally, preferential agreements of SEZs and the increase substantially: by 2035, around with lower tier suppliers supplying multiple necessary exposure to OEMs and tier 1 50 million adults are expected to earn industries. A targeted approach may prove suppliers. more than US$10 000 annually. If binding beneficial and would entail understanding structural constraints are resolved, the South Africa’s import base and products SSA Automotive Pact Task Team estimates used across industries. One possibility, 9
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Deloitte Africa: Lessons from the trenches Deloitte Africa: Lessons from the trenches Meaningful localisation, which both deepens and broadens local value chains, is crucial in aligning economic and social progress. This requires a shift away from a compliance-driven approach, towards value beyond compliance thinking, which fosters innovation and productivity. For localisation, this involves developing successful strategies to develop and/or create sustainable local suppliers, based on their individual needs and aspirations. The focus area for Enterprise and Supplier Development (ESD) is specifically small, medium and micro-sized enterprises (SMMEs). SMMEs have the greatest need for developmental support, and require different ESD support at different phases of their growth journey (Figure 9). Their needs, and the challenges they face, are well researched and documented, not only in South Africa, but globally. Based on Deloitte Africa’s experience, some of the important considerations when supporting SMMEs are: •• Entrepreneurial competence is correlated with the business’s survival and success •• Education and training are also correlated with successful SMMEs (as evidence in South Africa has indicated) •• Support should be differentiated by sector, size, skills and other factors •• Different stages of business growth should be taken into consideration •• The low survival rate for start-ups in South Africa (most fail within the first three years) is correlated with inadequate managerial skills •• Accessing and retaining skills within SMMEs is a key competitive advantage. Figure 9. SMME support phases - Emerging Micro Enterprises (EMEs), Qualifying Small Enterprises (QSEs) and Generics Types of ESD •• Incubation •• Financial assistance •• Favourable support programmes (i.e. loans) funding (e.g. loans) •• Training •• Managerial for expansion, development transformation, •• Equipment and and productivity materials •• Acceleration improvements programmes EMEs QSEs Generics Typical length •• 5 years Source: Deloitte Africa, 2019b62 10
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Deloitte Africa: Lessons from the trenches Deloitte Africa’s ESD framework Data-driven opportunity identification Traditionally, ESD programmes have We identify opportunities for enterprise focussed on organisational programmes, and/or supplier development by analysing which often disregard the specific needs of data at organisation, sector and cross- SMMEs and their operating environment. sector levels. This includes understanding Deloitte Africa has taken a different relevant value chains, and undertaking approach. proper market sensing, while considering the potential capabilities of suppliers. This Our ESD framework is underpinned by process helps to identify opportunities that an industry approach (e.g. tier 1 suppliers are likely to succeed. We identify collaborating to develop their tier 2 suppliers), with elements of cross-industry Individual approach opportunities deliberation. Hence, the framework considers direct and side value chains After identifying and prioritising opportunities, it is important to create a for enterprise to identify volume and opportunities for personalised programme. We work with and/or supplier small suppliers. It therefore supports small entrepreneurs to match their capabilities suppliers in achieving a sustainable growth to the selected opportunity. This means development by path. creating individual development plans – including elements such as types of analysing data Figure 10. Deloitte Africa’s ESD funding, skills development or mentorship – and implementing these effectively. at organisation, framework sector and cross- Robust post-investment monitoring In an ever-changing environment, efficient sector levels. monitoring and effective adjustments are crucial for SMMEs’ long-term sustainability. ESD programmes therefore need to be agile. In this phase, we monitor and evaluate SMMEs’ progress, and adjust the programme to support their long-term sustainability. The data collected feeds back into the first step, i.e. data-driven opportunity identification, to ensure we have the best information to make the best decisions. Having the right processes, people and Source: Deloitte Africa procedures in place to ensure successful localisation is key in driving value beyond Moreover, the framework is dynamic and compliance. This helps our clients to obtain iterative – collecting data throughout the value for their money and exertions, process, and adapting to shifting needs. and drives social progress by developing Deloitte Africa’s ESD framework consists of sustainable businesses. three basic steps: 11
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | The road ahead The road ahead The SAAM has recognised the need for and urgency to drive meaningful localisation. The reasons are clear. Developing the local automotive industry and subsequently tier 2/ remaining tier suppliers has the potential to generate high-value economic activities, improve living standards, and create higher-paying jobs, while developing upstream (e.g. plastics) and even services- based downstream (e.g. maintenance services) industries. Nevertheless, legislation alone is not enough and key areas – including the will, volume and upskilling – need to be addressed to unlock the full potential of the local automotive industry. 12
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Contacts Contacts Dr Martyn Davies Managing Director: Emerging Markets & Africa Africa Automotive Leader Deloitte Africa Email: mdavies@deloitte.com Tel: +27 (0)11 209 8290 09 8290 Mike Vincent Director: Strategy Africa Consulting Leader: Automotive Deloitte Africa Email: mivincent@deloitte.co.za Tel: +27 (0)11 806 5467 Khutso Sekgota Director: Strategy Deloitte Africa Email: ksekgota@deloitte.co.za Tel: +27 (0)12 482 0048 Elmarie Nel Senior Consultant: Africa Insights Deloitte Africa Email: elnel@deloitte.co.za Tel: +27 (0)11 209 8496 13
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Endnotes Endnotes 1 Furlonger, D., 2019. State should do more to help motor industry, says Ebrahim Patel. [Online] Available at: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/ economy/2019-08-22-state-should-do-more-to-help-motor-industry-says-ebrahim-patel/ [Accessed 26 August 2019]. 2 For example, many Asian countries have focussed on industrial development. See Chang, H.-J. & Zach, K. (2018) Industrial development in Asia: Trends in industrialization and industrial policy experiences of developing Asia, s.l.: WIDER Working Paper 2018/120. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. 3 The Department of Trade and Industry, 2018. Geared for Growth: South Africa’s automotive industry masterplan to 2035, s.l.: The Department of Trade and Industry. 4 For example, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Thailand and Turkey all have developed their automotive manufacturing sector. 5 Automotive Industry Export Council, 2019. Automotive Export Manual 2019, s.l.: Automotive Industry Export Council. 6 Such as the Motor Industry Development Programme (MIDP), Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP), and South African Automotive Masterplan (SAAM). 7 Black, A., Barnes, J. & Monaco, L., 2018. Structural Transformation in the Auto Sector: Industrial Policy, State-Business Bargaining and Supply Chain Development, s.l.: Industrial Development Think Tank. 8 Value beyond compliance is about the fundamental synergy between business performance and social progress in creating shared value. See Deloitte, 2019a. Value Beyond Compliance: A new paradigm to create shared value for mines, communities and government, s.l.: Deloitte. 9 For example, the global auto and truck net profit margin is 5.14%, auto parts is 4.34%, while automotive retail is 3.12%. See Damodaran, A., 2019. Data. [Online] Available at: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html [Accessed 20 April 2019]. 10 Australian Government, Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, 2018. Transitioning Australia’s automotive manufacturing industry. [Online] Available at: https://www.industry.gov.au/funding-and-incentives/manufacturing/transitioning-australias-automotive-manufacturing- industry [Accessed 18 April 2019]. 11 Silver, D., 2016. The Automotive Supply Chain, Explained. [Online] Available at: https://medium.com/self-driving-cars/the-automotive-supply-chain- explained-d4e74250106f [Accessed 12 April 2019]. 12 Ibid. 13 Ibid. 14 Venter, I., 2018. Auto thought leader on need to build Tier 2 and 3 suppliers as local content falls. [Online] Available at: https://www. engineeringnews.co.za/article/auto-thought-leader-on-need-to-build-tier-2-and-3-suppliers-as-local-content-falls-2018-08-24/rep_id:4136 [Accessed 17 July 2019]. 15 Black, A., Barnes, J. & Monaco, L., 2018. Structural Transformation in the Auto Sector: Industrial Policy, State-Business Bargaining and Supply Chain Development, s.l.: Industrial Development Think Tank. 16 Maikaew, P., 2019. Automotive industry at a turning point. [Online] Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1606570/automotive- industry-at-a-turning-point [Accessed 23 July 2019]. 17 Visram, T., 2018. How Thailand became the ‘Detroit of Asia’. [Online] Available at: https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/world/thailand-auto- industry/index.html [Accessed 23 July 2019]. 18 The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2019. Industry Report, Automotive, Thailand, 2nd Quarter 2019. s.I.: The Economist Intelligence Unit. 19 Thailand Automotive Institute, 2012. Master Plan for Automotive Industry 2012–2016, s.l.: Ministry of Industry. 20 Automotive Supply Chain Competitiveness Initiative, 2015. Lessons for South Africa from the Thai automotive industry’s success, s.l.: ASCCI Quarterly. 21 Natsuda, K. & Thoburn, J., 2011. Industrial Policy and the Development of the Automotive Industry in Thailand, s.l.: RCAPS Working Paper No. 11-5. 22 Ibid. 23 Automotive Supply Chain Competitiveness Initiative, 2015. Lessons for South Africa from the Thai automotive industry’s success, s.l.: ASCCI Quarterly. 24 Natsuda, K. & Thoburn, J., 2011. Industrial Policy and the Development of the Automotive Industry in Thailand, s.l.: RCAPS Working Paper No. 11-5. 25 Automotive Supply Chain Competitiveness Initiative, 2015. Lessons for South Africa from the Thai automotive industry’s success, s.l.: ASCCI Quarterly. 26 Nitipathanapirak, R., 2017. Thailand Automotive Industry Situation and Master Plan, s.l.: Thailand Automotive Institute. 27 The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2019. Industry Report, Automotive, Thailand, 2nd Quarter 2019. s.I.: The Economist Intelligence Unit. 28 Automotive Industry Export Council, 2019. Automotive Export Manual 2019, s.l.: Automotive Industry Export Council. 29 Davies, R., 2018. Media statement on the South African Automotive Masterplan 2035 and the Extension of the Automotive Production and Development Programme with amendments [Interview] (23 November 2018). 30 Automotive Industry Export Council, 2019. Automotive Export Manual 2019, s.l.: Automotive Industry Export Council. 31 Ibid. 32 Ibid. 33 Davies, R., 2018. Media statement on the South African Automotive Masterplan 2035 and the Extension of the Automotive Production and Development Programme with amendments [Interview] (23 November 2018). 14
Rooting SA: Strengthening the local automotive industry | Endnotes 34 Black, A., Barnes, J. & Monaco, L., 2018. Structural Transformation in the Auto Sector: Industrial Policy, State-Business Bargaining and Supply Chain Development, s.l.: Industrial Development Think Tank. 35 Ibid. 36 Ibid. 37 International Monetary Fund, 2018. IMF Country Report: South Africa, s.l.: International Monetary Fund. 38 Black, A., Barnes, J. & Monaco, L., 2018. Structural Transformation in the Auto Sector: Industrial Policy, State-Business Bargaining and Supply Chain Development, s.l.: Industrial Development Think Tank. 39 Ibid. 40 Ibid. 41 Davies, R., 2018. Media statement on the South African Automotive Masterplan 2035 and the Extension of the Automotive Production and Development Programme with amendments [Interview] (23 November 2018). 42 Ibid. 43 Ibid. 44 Ibid. 45 Venter, I., 2019. New-look APDP could change face of the local auto industry, says Naacam. [Online] Available at: https://www.engineeringnews. co.za/article/driving-force-2019-02-01 [Accessed 26 July 2019]. 46 Cokayne, R., 2019. Volkswagen on the electric vehicle offensive. [Online] Available at: https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/ volkswagen-on-the-electric-vehicle-offensive/ [Accessed 26 August 2019]. 47 Automotive Supply Chain Competitiveness Initiative, 2015. Lessons for South Africa from the Thai automotive industry’s success, s.l.: ASCCI Quarterly. 48 Interviews were conducted with 20 industry stakeholders across six organisations (such as OEMs, industry bodies, and tier 1 suppliers). 49 South Africa ranks 82nd out of 190 countries for ease of doing business. See World Bank Group, 2019. Doing Business 2019: Training for Reform, s.l.: World Bank Group. 50 South Africa ranks 65th for rail and 55th for port efficiency out of 137 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness report. See World Economic Forum, 2018. The Global Competitiveness Report 2018, s.l.: World Economic Forum. 51 The Sub-Saharan African Automotive Pact Task Team, 2019. Realising the potential of the Sub-Saharan African automotive market: The importance of establishing a subcontinental Automotive Pact, s.l.: A Report for Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) and the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM). 52 Deloitte, 2016. Navigating the African Automotive Sector: Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria. [Online] Available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/ dam/Deloitte/za/Documents/manufacturing/ZA_Deloitte-Africa-automotive-insights-Ethiopia-Kenya-Nigeria-Apr16.pdf [Accessed 24 April 2019]. 53 The Sub-Saharan African Automotive Pact Task Team, 2019. Realising the potential of the Sub-Saharan African automotive market: The importance of establishing a subcontinental Automotive Pact, s.l.: A Report for Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) and the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM). 54 For example, Kenya plans to lower the restricted age of imported second-hand cars. See Miriri, D., 2019. Kenya to restrict second-hand imports to boost domestic car sector, s.l.: Reuters. 55 The Sub-Saharan African Automotive Pact Task Team, 2019. Realising the potential of the Sub-Saharan African automotive market: The importance of establishing a subcontinental Automotive Pact, s.l.: A Report for Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) and the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM). 56 Automotive Supply Chain Competitiveness Initiative, 2015. Lessons for South Africa from the Thai automotive industry’s success, s.l.: ASCCI Quarterly. 57 Bahree, M., 2019. India Offers $1.4 Billion In Subsidies To Support The Domestic Electric Vehicle Industry. [Online] Available at: https://www. forbes.com/sites/meghabahree/2019/03/09/india-offers-1-4-billion-in-subsidies-to-support-the-domestic-electric-vehicle-industry/#1fd41f3f610a [Accessed 28 May 2019]. 58 Miriri, D., 2019. Kenya to restrict second-hand imports to boost domestic car sector, s.l.: Reuters. 59 People’s Daily Online., 2019. China rolls out new incentives to boost auto market. [Online] Available at: http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/0227/c90000- 9550399.html [Accessed 28 May 2019]. 60 Many corporates already upskill people to break down the skills divide. For example, Bosch established a training centre where learners on multiple Bosch programmes have the opportunity to undergo vocational training. See Bosch, 2019. Quality Bosch Parts Made in South Africa. [Online] Available at: https://www.bosch.africa/news-and-stories/bosch-brits-plant/ [Accessed 26 August 2019]. 61 Basic business skills often let companies down: bottom lines are insufficient, worsened by the lack of negotiation and forecasting skills. This is often exacerbated by the lack of transparency from OEMs and tier 1 suppliers. 62 Deloitte, 2019b. 2018 Mining Charter Analysis: Finding a happy medium, s.l.: Deloitte. 15
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