Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
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Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Table of contents Foreword 3 Politics versus economics – Angola, South Africa and Kenya 5 Stuck in the middle – Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire 9 Promising news in the north – Morocco 13 Annex 14 About us 15 01
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Foreword A wave of change swept Southern In our first edition of the Africa Risk- health also discouraged foreign investors. Africa in the second half of 2017 Reward Index, we analysed the Nigeria’s recently initiated Economic and early 2018. Not all of it was impact of political uncertainty on Recovery and Growth Plan has begun unexpected – Control Risks economic performance in Africa’s three to tackle some of the economy’s predicted the power transitions in powerhouses: South Africa, Nigeria and challenges, including corruption and an Zimbabwe and South Africa. Still, Egypt. But these three countries were infrastructure deficit. The plan has also change extended more widely and not alone: sought to remove bottlenecks to improve unexpectedly to other countries in the the ease of doing business. Economic Kenya in 2017 was dominated by a region such as Angola. activity in 2018 will be overshadowed by seemingly endless presidential election politicking ahead of the 2019 presidential And change was desperately needed. cycle, though estimated real GDP growth election. However, Nigeria’s economy will The first half of 2017 saw a sharp fall-off still showed a resilient 5%. weather the political uncertainty. in M&A deals, with a 25% decrease in Nigeria in 2017 recovered to 0.8% volume and 26% drop in value relative In this second edition of the Africa real GDP growth, after a painful to the second half of 2016, driven by Risk-Reward Index we review changes recession triggered by a dip in oil prices. political uncertainty in South Africa, the observed in the second half of 2017 Protectionist policies and uncertainty continent’s largest M&A market*. and early 2018, and look more closely over President Muhammadu Buhari’s at Angola and South Africa. We also examine what the end of Kenya’s painful Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics 2018 election cycle has meant for that country. In the spirit of the Index, we also shine Fig.1 Africa Risk-Reward Index a light on countries stirring the interest of investors for some time now: Senegal 9 and Côte d’Ivoire. 8 The Africa Risk-Reward Index plots each country’s performance relative 7 to African peers, and highlights how some of Africa’s largest economies are 6 outshone by smaller rivals. The position of each country is defined by its risk 5 and reward score; the size of its bubble represents the size of the country’s GDP. 4 Further details on the methodology for calculating each country’s scores are 3 provided in detail in the annex. 2 The Africa Risk-Reward Index should not replace an in-depth analysis tailored to your 1 sector and company. Please contact us to discuss at: enquiries@controlrisks.com 0 or africa@oxfordeconomics.com 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Algeria Angola Botswana Cameroon DRC Egypt Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Ivory Coast Kenya Malawi Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe *Source: Resourceful dealmaking – Outlook for M&A in Africa; Mergermarket and Control Risks, 2017 02 03
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Politics versus economics – Angola, South Africa and Kenya Angola inaugurated President João motivated, but they have also provided consolidation and currency devaluation Lourenço on 26 September 2017. Since new opportunities for foreign investment start to impact on living costs, the popular then, he has acted with remarkable in sectors previously dominated by mandate underpinning his actions will start speed and decisiveness to consolidate companies linked to the former president to weaken. Senior figures within the ruling his authority. More than 100 allies of his and his family. Lourenço has been Popular Movement for the Liberation of predecessor, José Eduardo dos Santos strengthened by his popular mandate to Angola (MPLA) will offer resistance once (1979-2017), have been removed from tackle corruption and deliver economic the focus shifts from the dos Santos family public posts. These include the former growth, and the president has followed to other political players with business president’s daughter Isabel dos Santos as his attacks on dos Santos’s interests with interests. But for the moment Angola chairperson of state oil company Sonangol reforms intended to facilitate investment. is looking increasingly attractive as an and his son José Filomeno dos Santos as This combination of weakening vested investment destination. chairperson of Angola’s sovereign wealth interests and improving the regulatory fund. State contracts and agreements held environment is most prominent The economic perspective by companies linked to the dos Santos in the oil and gas, diamond, and family have also been cancelled. telecommunications sectors. Higher oil prices will benefit Angola’s external balances in 2018. We forecast that These efforts to dismantle dos Santos’s Lourenço will struggle to implement all of exports will rise by 28.8% to USD 41.6bn, networks may be in part politically his proposed reforms. As necessary fiscal driven by increased oil output and higher global prices for the commodity, which will Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics improve the overall outlook for the Angolan Fig.2 Risk-Reward Index in Angola – 2017 & 2018 economy. There have been some positive developments on the policy front, too: the central bank surprised markets early 2017 in the year with the announcement that it Risk would adopt a flexible exchange rate within 2018 horizontal bands. The weaker kwanza will contribute to mounting price pressures, 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 especially during H1, but inflation is nonetheless seen declining from 32.2% in 2017 2017 to 27.6% in 2018. The new system Reward will also tend to facilitate investment and 2018 trade. Real GDP growth is forecast to rise from 0.9% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018, and to average 2.8% a year in 2019-20. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Late 2017 and early 2018 saw dramatic political developments. In Angola and Zimbabwe, two of the continent’s longest-serving leaders left office. In South Africa, President Jacob Zuma resigned amid Source: Control Risks allegations of corruption and economic mismanagement. Further north, the protracted spectacle of the Kenyan presidential election may not have resulted in a change of leadership but undoubtedly impacted on investor Fig.3 Key personnel changes under Lourenço confidence. Uncertainty persists in Ethiopia following the shock resignation of prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn in February 2018. In Congo (DRC), President Joseph Kabila clings to power in the absence of elections. Sonangol Sovereign Wealth Fund State Intelligence and External Intelligence Angolan Armed Forces Security Service Service These political developments have inevitably had an impact on the position of these countries on the Africa Risk-Reward Index. António Egído de Ângelo Eduardo Paca António Egídio de Carlos Saturnino Sousa Santos Fernando Garcia Miala Sousa Santos In Southern Africa, the changes have been broadly positive. New leaders promising economic reforms are lowering José Filomeno dos André de Oliveira Geraldo Sachipengo Isabel dos Santos Eduardo Octávio Santos João Sango Nunda risks, though the effects will take time to translate into an improved reward score. Elsewhere, uncertainty around unresolved political issues has raised risks or tempered our outlook on potential rewards. Three countries illustrate these trends: 04 05
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Kenya’s tumultuous election period in Source: Control Risks 2018 2017 exposed the persistent ethnic and Fig.6 Attacks by Islamist extremists in Kenya 30 April 2017 - 30 April 2018 regional divides that still characterise politics in the country. 2017 was slow for investors – domestic and foreign – as many chose to wait out this extended period of 2 political uncertainty. The suspension of Moyale 10 Lodwar 9 some broadcasters for covering defeated 3 opposition leader Raila Odinga’s mock Te swearing in and ignoring of court orders for Eldoret the restitution of broadcast services by the Te Jubilee Party of Kenya (JPK) government in 2 February 2018 further unnerved investors. 3 In South Africa, the December 2017 Nonetheless, Ramaphosa faces a divided Incidents Nairobi election of Cyril Ramaphosa as African African National Congress (ANC), and may The economic perspective Meanwhile, there are increasing concerns Te Terrorism 17 17 National Congress (ANC) president and at times struggle to impose his authority over the government’s external debt The election of Ramaphosa as head of state his subsequent ascent to the national and vision. This will be most evident in the burden, with a new USD 2bn Eurobond 3 Number of in February has triggered a notable recovery incidents presidency in February 2018 provided an ANC’s rhetoric on accelerating a policy of issued in February even as the proceeds Te Mombasa © Control Risks 2018 in business and consumer confidence. immediate boost to investor confidence. land expropriation without compensation. of a previous issue have yet to be fully Nonetheless, it will take time for the GDP Ramaphosa’s administration is expected Electoral pressures ahead of the 2019 accounted for*. Moreover, security remains growth rate to lift more meaningfully, as to deliver greater policy certainty in general elections will aggravate these risks. a challenge amid high levels of criminality help boost manufacturing and trade with and macroeconomic policies would also numerous economic challenges persist. strategic economic sectors, including Meanwhile, deeply entrenched patronage across the country and the continued threat Kenya’s neighbours. Combined with its help maintain positive economic prospects. Chief among these challenges are those mining, energy and financial services. networks spread across state entities and posed by Somali Islamist group al-Shabab. well-educated workforce, improvements identified by Ramaphosa in his first State Moreover, Ramaphosa is likely to oversee institutions will remain difficult to uproot. in the regulatory environment and strong of the Nation Address in February 2018: the implementation of policies intended to This is likely to contribute to the relatively Despite this, Kenya’s reward score is innovative service sector, Kenya presents an The economic perspective restoring the health of state-owned consolidate fiscal expenditure and tackle slow recovery in the governance of among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. attractive investment destination. Improving enterprises, addressing the policy impasse The Kenyan economy grew by 4.7% corruption in public institutions and state- state-owned entities, which remain a key A pro-business approach underpins the relations between the government and in the mining industry, improving job creation year-on-year during the first three quarters owned enterprises, increasing opportunities source of vulnerability for South Africa’s JPK’s plans to further diversify the economy, opposition will be instrumental in ensuring (especially addressing youth unemployment), of 2017. A weak agricultural performance for doing business in South Africa. sovereign rating. which is expected to grow at 4.9% in 2018. that political tensions do not undermine reviving the manufacturing sector, promoting during 2017 H1 and a slump in economic Continued investments in infrastructure will economic growth, and more prudent fiscal small business development, growing activity during the extended election period Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics the tourism sector and exploring digital in 2017 H2 are estimated to have pushed industrial revolution opportunities. There are Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics real GDP growth down to 4.6% last year Fig.4 Risk-Reward Index in South Africa – 2017 & 2018 – the slowest economic expansion since many political obstacles to implementing Fig.5 Risk-Reward Index in Kenya – 2017 & 2018 meaningful changes in these areas, not 2012. Economic growth is expected to 2017 least South Africa’s combative trade pick up this year, supported by more Risk 2017 favourable weather conditions (relative unions. Disappointing performances in the Risk 2018 mining and manufacturing sectors meant to 2016 and H1 2017), strong public 2018 investment (stimulating industry), and an that the economy hardly expanded in Q1. Furthermore, headwinds are gathering improvement in business sentiment as 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 for consumers, with the recent surge in 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 political tensions resulting from electoral international oil prices pushing fuel costs dramas in 2017 subside. Real GDP growth 2017 is projected to average just under 6% Reward to all-time highs. We have revised our GDP 2017 Reward growth forecast for 2018 marginally lower p.a. over the next four years, with the 2018 from 2.0% to 1.9%, and are keeping next development of the domestic hydrocarbons 2018 year’s GDP growth forecast unchanged sector gaining some momentum towards 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 at 2.0%. the end of the decade. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 06 *Read more on Africa’s debt problem here: https://www.controlrisks.com/riskmap-2018/articles/at-debts-door 07
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Stuck in the middle – Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire has experienced an mining sectors seeing considerable growth. Shortcomings in disarmament and security impressive recovery since the 2010-11 Côte d’Ivoire has achieved one of the sector reform pose longer-term threats to crisis, in which a disputed election result highest growth rates in the world, averaging security and national stability, as highlighted led to a civil conflict. Prioritising economic 8.5% annually between 2012 and 2017. by army mutinies, protests by former growth, the government has collaborated combatants, clashes between rival security with international institutions; improved Major obstacles to a full recovery forces and attacks on security posts in macroeconomic management; invested in persist. President Alassane Ouattara has 2017. Finally, competition is increasing over infrastructure; adopted new investment, struggled to establish a truly technocratic Ouattara’s succession in 2020, with rivalries petroleum and mining codes; reformed government, and political interference within and between the ruling coalition and the agricultural sector; and simplified and corruption continue to permeate the opposition likely to provide for a volatile bureaucratic procedures. Côte d’Ivoire business environment. Growth has not election cycle. Côte d’Ivoire will need to has ranked as one of the top business been inclusive – unemployment and poverty carefully navigate these challenges in the reformers in recent years according to rates remain high and socioeconomic coming years to ensure continued foreign the World Bank. Investors have flocked discontent fuelled protests in 2017. Political investment and high economic growth. back to the country, with the construction, and national reconciliation have also telecommunications, banking, retail and stalled, undermining Ouattara’s legitimacy. Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics Fig.7 Risk-Reward Index in Côte d’Ivoire – 2017 & 2018 The economic perspective 2017 Strong economic growth is supported by continued government spending in line with Risk 2018 the implementation of the 2016-20 National Development Plan (NDP), which includes efforts to improve infrastructure spending 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 and create a better business environment. An improved business climate has the 2017 potential to attract more foreign investment, Reward an imperative for future economic growth. 2018 Foreign direct investment (FDI) prospects are promising, and the relatively stable macroeconomic environment and high 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 economic growth rates are expected to continue attracting foreign investor interest. Despite the projection of strong Source: Oxford Economics fiscal spending, we expect the fiscal Fig.8 Industrial Production Index (Côte d’Ivoire) deficit to remain sustainable, largely due to continued efforts to widen the tax base. Industrial production index 200 The short-term economic growth outlook remains positive: we forecast a real GDP Investors often focus on Africa’s giants of Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa. But in the second tier of African 150 growth rate of 7% for 2018. economies a number of countries are competing for attention. The rewards offered by mid-sized economies such as Cameroon, Zambia, Uganda or Tunisia may not be as great, but they offer untapped opportunities with 100 typically manageable risks. Careful understanding of these markets is required, as appearances can be deceiving. Two key examples of this 50 are Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal. Over the past few years Côte d’Ivoire has enjoyed rapid economic growth; Senegal 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 has been more muted. Looking forward, however, Senegal’s relationship between risk and reward marks it out as a promising investment destination. 08 09
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Senegal has enjoyed a positive reputation However, Senegal’s economic trajectory for stability and democratic tradition, has followed a positive trend in recent The economic perspective having never experienced a coup since years. President Macky Sall in 2014 Under the PSE, growth has increased independence and managing several launched a USD 19bn economic steadily over the last three years, reaching peaceful transfers of power since the development plan, the Emerging Senegal close to 6.4% in 2017. Besides strong 1990s. Nonetheless, the country has Plan (PSE), which includes a series of public spending, other factors that long struggled to attract high levels reforms and public infrastructure projects positively influenced growth were growing of foreign investment in light of a lack to improve the business environment. The exports, buoyed by a more diversified base of exploitable natural resources and a PSE is starting to pay off, with growth rates in fishing, agriculture and mining, as well as range of operational issues, including a nearing 7% annually since 2016, making more favourable terms of trade. Senegal’s cumbersome bureaucracy and a power Senegal one of the continent’s strongest economic outlook remains positive. We sector crisis. Growth rates barely reached performers. Meanwhile, promising offshore forecast growth to remain buoyant at 6.7% 3%-4% annually during the last two oil and gas discoveries since 2014 have in 2018 and 6.9% in 2019 while authorities decades, with the Senegalese economy attracted growing interest from international continue to invest in infrastructure and remaining much smaller than those of Côte majors, and could bring significant implement structural reforms to improve the d’Ivoire and Ghana, for example. additional revenue in the longer term. business environment. It is an imperative for the country to create a more favourable Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics investment environment so that future Fig.9 Risk-Reward Index in Senegal – 2017 & 2018 growth is led by the private sector. 2017 Risk 2018 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2017 Reward 2018 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Promising news in the north – Morocco For the second year in a row, Morocco efforts to address social grievances – has the lowest risk score (4.09) of any including reducing the economic disparities The economic perspective large economy in the Africa Risk-Reward between rural and urban areas – have After averaging 4.1% in 2017, economic Index. Its reward score (5.77) may not had limited results. Localised protests growth is forecast to ease to 3.2% in dazzle, but it remains comfortably above against high unemployment rates and 2018 due to a cyclical downturn in the regional average. Investors are poor living conditions occur on a daily agricultural production, which continues beginning to take notice. basis. Establishing stronger ties between to make the difference between a good Morocco and West Africa continues to and bad economic year in Morocco. Morocco remains politically more stable drive the kingdom’s foreign and trade policy Lower agricultural activity coupled with than its neighbours in North Africa. The at the regional level, and these efforts were higher inflation will weigh on private sector elected government under the authority of bolstered when the Economic Community consumption and weaken real GDP King Mohammed VI continues to gradually of West African States (ECOWAS) agreed growth. Nonetheless, the industrial sector implement economic and social reforms in principle to Morocco’s accession in will be supported by strong investment, aiming at improving the country’s resilience June 2017. However, concerns among as well as continued development of high to external shocks, making its exports more member states over the regional diplomatic value-added manufacturing industries, competitive, and enabling it to become less balance of power, customs tariffs and while the services sector will be boosted reliant on imports. These efforts improved freedom of movement are likely to lead to a by noticeable efforts to increase tourism. the business environment and turned postponement of Morocco’s full admission Medium-term growth will be enhanced Morocco into the leading destination for beyond 2018. by continued reforms to improve labour FDI in North Africa. The automotive and participation and efficiency, access to aeronautical industries continue to thrive as Despite these issues, Morocco remains on finance, quality of education and the authorities aim to position the kingdom as a track to consolidate its position as North business environment, as these represent regional industrial hub. Africa’s investment hub and the gateway the primary constraints to competitiveness between Europe and Africa. There are challenges though. Social and doing business, and it is positive that tensions in less developed regions remain decision-makers recognise this. a key concern for the government, and 12 13
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018 Annex About us Methodology Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics The Africa Risk-Reward Index is defined Fig.10 EPRE methodology Fig.11 About us by the combination of risk and reward scores, integrating economic and political Political Rating Credit Rating Risk assessment stability risk Weight risk analysis by Control Risks and NKC Weight • Measure the full risk impact, including its severity, speed and timing. • Assess the spillover effects on countries, markets and risk categories. African Economics. Social Rating Scenarios and stress-testing cohesion Weight Trade Rating Risk scores POL ECON risk • Use scenario analysis to gauge vulnerability to future risks and assign probabilities. Weight • Forecast the impact of alternative economic and political events on strategies and investments. International Rating The risk scores replicate the scoring of Combined Combined relations Weight rating rating each country within the joint product Exchange Rating Benchmarking and modelling risk Weight • Identify the range of traditional and non-traditional risks that can affect your business. offering Economic and Political Risk Rating Business • Determine the risk linkages, such as between economic, political, and financial events. Evaluator (EPRE) of Control Risks and environment Weight Oxford Economics, the majority shareholder Overall rating Market Rating Scanning the horizon of NKC African Economics. Control Risks Security Rating demand risk Weight • Spot emerging risks and forecast new ones through early-warning systems. environment Weight • Compare the range of changes in the global risk landscape. and Oxford Economics analysts rate a series of political and economic risk Ideology Rating Market Rating factors on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 and policy cost risk Weight Weight representing the highest level of risk. Each political and economic rating is assigned a Control Risks NKC African Economics Control Risks and Oxford Economics default weight, based on its significance in the country context and its potential impact multiply where economic growth is strong. metrics, the current account, financial Control Risks exists to make our clients NKC African Economics, based in South Control Risks and Oxford Economics on business. The individual political and But the absolute size of the economy structure (including banking sector stability) succeed. We are a specialist global risk Africa, is a majority-owned subsidiary have joined forces to provide an innovative economic risk variables are then combined makes a difference, too: 0.3% GDP growth and investment. Demographics are consultancy that helps to create secure, of Oxford Economics that specialises in political and economic risk forecasting – multiplying rating by weighting – into the in South Africa in 2016, for example, incorporated through the formulation of a compliant and resilient organisations in an political and macroeconomic research in service that takes a holistic view of risk in a overall risk rating of a country. represented extra value added of USD demographic dividend, which incorporates age of ever-changing risk. Africa. NKC investigates and interprets complex, rapidly changing, globalised world. 830m, while 5.9% growth in Rwanda population size, urbanisation and the sovereign risk, and political and Reward scores translated into just over USD 500m in dependency ratios. Working across disciplines, technologies macroeconomic conditions, of 30 African Control Risks and Oxford Economics new value added. So our score also and geographies, everything we do is countries to caution against pitfalls and combine extensive geopolitical, operational The reward scores incorporate medium- incorporates a weight for economy size. For details on the individual risk and reward based on our belief that taking risks is and security expertise with rigorous guide investors towards opportunities. term economic growth forecasts, definitions, please contact us. essential to our clients’ success. economic forecasts and models on 200 economic size, economic structure and The economic structure indicator derives NKC has a strong reputation for countries and 100 industries. demographics. The economic growth from the ‘economic structure risk’ enquiries@controlrisks.com or We provide you with the insight to focus independence and quality with a team outlook has the biggest weight in the component of NKC’s sovereign risk rating africa@oxfordeconomics.com resources and ensure you are prepared to Together, we offer full-spectrum consulting of 31 staff, including 21 analysts. The reward score, as investment opportunities model, which takes into account debt resolve the issues and crises that occur in analysis team includes economists, that enables your organisation to navigate any ambitious global organisation. econometricians, political analysts and a the world of political and economic risk. financial economist. Covering all aspects of the investment We go beyond problem-solving and give journey, including security and integrity risk, you the insight and intelligence you need Apart from the sovereign risk rating model our joint consultancy practice can overlay to realise opportunities and grow. From the service, NKC provides bespoke ad-hoc geopolitical and economic scenarios to boardroom to the remotest location, we research on any topic that requires analysis of bring new insights and direction. have developed an unparalleled ability to the political or macroeconomic environment bring order to chaos and reassurance to of Africa, or any African country. anxiety. www.controlrisks.com www.africaneconomics.com 14 15
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