Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal

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Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
Africa Risk-Reward Index
               June 2018
Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
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Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

Table of contents

Foreword                                                                                       3

Politics versus economics – Angola, South Africa and Kenya                                     5

Stuck in the middle – Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire                                                9

Promising news in the north – Morocco                                                        13

Annex                                                                                        14

About us                                                                                     15

                                                                                             01
Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018                                                                                                                               Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

                                       Foreword

                                       A wave of change swept Southern                            In our first edition of the Africa Risk-                 health also discouraged foreign investors.
                                       Africa in the second half of 2017                          Reward Index, we analysed the                            Nigeria’s recently initiated Economic
                                       and early 2018. Not all of it was                          impact of political uncertainty on                       Recovery and Growth Plan has begun
                                       unexpected – Control Risks                                 economic performance in Africa’s three                   to tackle some of the economy’s
                                       predicted the power transitions in                         powerhouses: South Africa, Nigeria and                   challenges, including corruption and an
                                       Zimbabwe and South Africa. Still,                          Egypt. But these three countries were                    infrastructure deficit. The plan has also
                                       change extended more widely and                            not alone:                                               sought to remove bottlenecks to improve
                                       unexpectedly to other countries in the                                                                              the ease of doing business. Economic
                                                                                                  Kenya in 2017 was dominated by a
                                       region such as Angola.                                                                                              activity in 2018 will be overshadowed by
                                                                                                  seemingly endless presidential election
                                                                                                                                                           politicking ahead of the 2019 presidential
                                       And change was desperately needed.                         cycle, though estimated real GDP growth
                                                                                                                                                           election. However, Nigeria’s economy will
                                       The first half of 2017 saw a sharp fall-off                still showed a resilient 5%.
                                                                                                                                                           weather the political uncertainty.
                                       in M&A deals, with a 25% decrease in
                                                                                                  Nigeria in 2017 recovered to 0.8%
                                       volume and 26% drop in value relative                                                                               In this second edition of the Africa
                                                                                                  real GDP growth, after a painful
                                       to the second half of 2016, driven by                                                                               Risk-Reward Index we review changes
                                                                                                  recession triggered by a dip in oil prices.
                                       political uncertainty in South Africa, the                                                                          observed in the second half of 2017
                                                                                                  Protectionist policies and uncertainty
                                       continent’s largest M&A market*.                                                                                    and early 2018, and look more closely
                                                                                                  over President Muhammadu Buhari’s
                                                                                                                                                           at Angola and South Africa. We also
                                                                                                                                                           examine what the end of Kenya’s painful
                                                                                                         Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics 2018
                                                                                                                                                           election cycle has meant for that country.
                                                                                                                                                           In the spirit of the Index, we also shine
                                       Fig.1    Africa Risk-Reward Index
                                                                                                                                                           a light on countries stirring the interest
                                                                                                                                                           of investors for some time now: Senegal
                                       9                                                                                                                   and Côte d’Ivoire.

                                       8
                                                                                                                                                           The Africa Risk-Reward Index plots
                                                                                                                                                           each country’s performance relative
                                       7
                                                                                                                                                           to African peers, and highlights how
                                                                                                                                                           some of Africa’s largest economies are
                                       6
                                                                                                                                                           outshone by smaller rivals. The position
                                                                                                                                                           of each country is defined by its risk
                                       5
                                                                                                                                                           and reward score; the size of its bubble
                                                                                                                                                           represents the size of the country’s GDP.
                                       4
                                                                                                                                                           Further details on the methodology for
                                                                                                                                                           calculating each country’s scores are
                                       3
                                                                                                                                                           provided in detail in the annex.
                                       2                                                                                                                   The Africa Risk-Reward Index should not
                                                                                                                                                           replace an in-depth analysis tailored to your
                                       1                                                                                                                   sector and company. Please contact us to
                                                                                                                                                           discuss at: enquiries@controlrisks.com
                                       0                                                                                                                   or africa@oxfordeconomics.com
                                                    1        2         3            4         5         6            7        8          9          10

                                               Algeria     Angola          Botswana          Cameroon          DRC         Egypt         Ethiopia
                                               Gabon       Ghana           Ivory Coast       Kenya          Malawi       Mauritius        Morocco
                                               Mozambique          Namibia         Nigeria        Rwanda         Senegal          South Africa
                                               Tanzania      Tunisia          Uganda         Zambia         Zimbabwe
                                                                                                                                                           *Source: Resourceful dealmaking – Outlook for M&A in
                                                                                                                                                           Africa; Mergermarket and Control Risks, 2017

02                                                                                                                                                                                                                03
Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

                                                                                                                               Politics versus economics – Angola, South Africa and Kenya

                                                                                                                               Angola inaugurated President João                       motivated, but they have also provided                  consolidation and currency devaluation
                                                                                                                               Lourenço on 26 September 2017. Since                    new opportunities for foreign investment                start to impact on living costs, the popular
                                                                                                                               then, he has acted with remarkable                      in sectors previously dominated by                      mandate underpinning his actions will start
                                                                                                                               speed and decisiveness to consolidate                   companies linked to the former president                to weaken. Senior figures within the ruling
                                                                                                                               his authority. More than 100 allies of his              and his family. Lourenço has been                       Popular Movement for the Liberation of
                                                                                                                               predecessor, José Eduardo dos Santos                    strengthened by his popular mandate to                  Angola (MPLA) will offer resistance once
                                                                                                                               (1979-2017), have been removed from                     tackle corruption and deliver economic                  the focus shifts from the dos Santos family
                                                                                                                               public posts. These include the former                  growth, and the president has followed                  to other political players with business
                                                                                                                               president’s daughter Isabel dos Santos as               his attacks on dos Santos’s interests with              interests. But for the moment Angola
                                                                                                                               chairperson of state oil company Sonangol               reforms intended to facilitate investment.              is looking increasingly attractive as an
                                                                                                                               and his son José Filomeno dos Santos as                 This combination of weakening vested                    investment destination.
                                                                                                                               chairperson of Angola’s sovereign wealth                interests and improving the regulatory
                                                                                                                               fund. State contracts and agreements held               environment is most prominent                           The economic perspective
                                                                                                                               by companies linked to the dos Santos                   in the oil and gas, diamond, and
                                                                                                                               family have also been cancelled.                        telecommunications sectors.                             Higher oil prices will benefit Angola’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               external balances in 2018. We forecast that
                                                                                                                               These efforts to dismantle dos Santos’s                 Lourenço will struggle to implement all of              exports will rise by 28.8% to USD 41.6bn,
                                                                                                                               networks may be in part politically                     his proposed reforms. As necessary fiscal               driven by increased oil output and higher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               global prices for the commodity, which will
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               improve the overall outlook for the Angolan
                                                                                                                                Fig.2      Risk-Reward Index in Angola – 2017 & 2018                                                           economy. There have been some positive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               developments on the policy front, too:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               the central bank surprised markets early
                                                                                                                                        2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               in the year with the announcement that it

                                                                                                                               Risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               would adopt a flexible exchange rate within
                                                                                                                                        2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               horizontal bands. The weaker kwanza will
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               contribute to mounting price pressures,
                                                                                                                                               0        1        2        3       4         5    6         7         8         9        10     especially during H1, but inflation is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               nonetheless seen declining from 32.2% in
                                                                                                                                        2017                                                                                                   2017 to 27.6% in 2018. The new system

                                                                                                                               Reward
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               will also tend to facilitate investment and
                                                                                                                                        2018                                                                                                   trade. Real GDP growth is forecast to rise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               from 0.9% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018, and to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               average 2.8% a year in 2019-20.
                                                                                                                                               0        1        2        3       4         5    6         7         8         9        10
       Late 2017 and early 2018 saw dramatic political developments. In Angola and Zimbabwe, two of the
       continent’s longest-serving leaders left office. In South Africa, President Jacob Zuma resigned amid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Control Risks
       allegations of corruption and economic mismanagement. Further north, the protracted spectacle of the Kenyan
       presidential election may not have resulted in a change of leadership but undoubtedly impacted on investor               Fig.3      Key personnel changes under Lourenço
       confidence. Uncertainty persists in Ethiopia following the shock resignation of prime minister Hailemariam
       Desalegn in February 2018. In Congo (DRC), President Joseph Kabila clings to power in the absence of elections.           Sonangol                            Sovereign Wealth Fund       State Intelligence and              External Intelligence         Angolan Armed Forces
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Security Service                    Service
       These political developments have inevitably had an impact on the position of these countries on the Africa
       Risk-Reward Index.                                                                                                                                               António Egído de                                                 Ângelo Eduardo Paca          António Egídio de
                                                                                                                                        Carlos Saturnino                Sousa Santos                 Fernando Garcia Miala                                            Sousa Santos
       In Southern Africa, the changes have been broadly positive. New leaders promising economic reforms are lowering                                                  José Filomeno dos                                                André de Oliveira            Geraldo Sachipengo
                                                                                                                                        Isabel dos Santos                                            Eduardo Octávio
                                                                                                                                                                        Santos                                                           João Sango                   Nunda
       risks, though the effects will take time to translate into an improved reward score. Elsewhere, uncertainty around
       unresolved political issues has raised risks or tempered our outlook on potential rewards. Three countries illustrate
       these trends:

04                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         05
Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

                                                                                                                                                                 Kenya’s tumultuous election period in                                                                                                                       Source: Control Risks 2018

                                                                                                                                                                 2017 exposed the persistent ethnic and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Fig.6        Attacks by Islamist extremists in Kenya 30 April 2017 - 30 April 2018
                                                                                                                                                                 regional divides that still characterise
                                                                                                                                                                 politics in the country. 2017 was slow for
                                                                                                                                                                 investors – domestic and foreign – as many
                                                                                                                                                                 chose to wait out this extended period of                                                                                                  2

                                                                                                                                                                 political uncertainty. The suspension of                                                                                          Moyale             10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Lodwar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 9
                                                                                                                                                                 some broadcasters for covering defeated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
                                                                                                                                                                 opposition leader Raila Odinga’s mock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Te
                                                                                                                                                                 swearing in and ignoring of court orders for                                                                     Eldoret
                                                                                                                                                                 the restitution of broadcast services by the                                                                                               Te

                                                                                                                                                                 Jubilee Party of Kenya (JPK) government in                                                                                                 2

                                                                                                                                                                 February 2018 further unnerved investors.                                                                                                       3
In South Africa, the December 2017                      Nonetheless, Ramaphosa faces a divided                                                                                                                                         Incidents                                        Nairobi
election of Cyril Ramaphosa as African                  African National Congress (ANC), and may                The economic perspective                         Meanwhile, there are increasing concerns                              Te       Terrorism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            17       17

National Congress (ANC) president and                   at times struggle to impose his authority                                                                over the government’s external debt
                                                                                                                The election of Ramaphosa as head of state
his subsequent ascent to the national                   and vision. This will be most evident in the                                                             burden, with a new USD 2bn Eurobond                                   3        Number of
                                                                                                                in February has triggered a notable recovery                                                                                    incidents
presidency in February 2018 provided an                 ANC’s rhetoric on accelerating a policy of                                                               issued in February even as the proceeds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Te
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mombasa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              © Control Risks 2018
                                                                                                                in business and consumer confidence.
immediate boost to investor confidence.                 land expropriation without compensation.                                                                 of a previous issue have yet to be fully
                                                                                                                Nonetheless, it will take time for the GDP
Ramaphosa’s administration is expected                  Electoral pressures ahead of the 2019                                                                    accounted for*. Moreover, security remains
                                                                                                                growth rate to lift more meaningfully, as
to deliver greater policy certainty in                  general elections will aggravate these risks.                                                            a challenge amid high levels of criminality                   help boost manufacturing and trade with                            and macroeconomic policies would also
                                                                                                                numerous economic challenges persist.
strategic economic sectors, including                   Meanwhile, deeply entrenched patronage                                                                   across the country and the continued threat                   Kenya’s neighbours. Combined with its                              help maintain positive economic prospects.
                                                                                                                Chief among these challenges are those
mining, energy and financial services.                  networks spread across state entities and                                                                posed by Somali Islamist group al-Shabab.                     well-educated workforce, improvements
                                                                                                                identified by Ramaphosa in his first State
Moreover, Ramaphosa is likely to oversee                institutions will remain difficult to uproot.                                                                                                                          in the regulatory environment and strong
                                                                                                                of the Nation Address in February 2018:
the implementation of policies intended to              This is likely to contribute to the relatively                                                           Despite this, Kenya’s reward score is                         innovative service sector, Kenya presents an                       The economic perspective
                                                                                                                restoring the health of state-owned
consolidate fiscal expenditure and tackle               slow recovery in the governance of                                                                       among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.                      attractive investment destination. Improving
                                                                                                                enterprises, addressing the policy impasse                                                                                                                                        The Kenyan economy grew by 4.7%
corruption in public institutions and state-            state-owned entities, which remain a key                                                                 A pro-business approach underpins the                         relations between the government and
                                                                                                                in the mining industry, improving job creation                                                                                                                                    year-on-year during the first three quarters
owned enterprises, increasing opportunities             source of vulnerability for South Africa’s                                                               JPK’s plans to further diversify the economy,                 opposition will be instrumental in ensuring
                                                                                                                (especially addressing youth unemployment),                                                                                                                                       of 2017. A weak agricultural performance
for doing business in South Africa.                     sovereign rating.                                                                                        which is expected to grow at 4.9% in 2018.                    that political tensions do not undermine
                                                                                                                reviving the manufacturing sector, promoting                                                                                                                                      during 2017 H1 and a slump in economic
                                                                                                                                                                 Continued investments in infrastructure will                  economic growth, and more prudent fiscal
                                                                                                                small business development, growing                                                                                                                                               activity during the extended election period
                                                                   Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics   the tourism sector and exploring digital                                                                                                                                          in 2017 H2 are estimated to have pushed
                                                                                                                industrial revolution opportunities. There are                                                                                  Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics        real GDP growth down to 4.6% last year
 Fig.4     Risk-Reward Index in South Africa – 2017 & 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        – the slowest economic expansion since
                                                                                                                many political obstacles to implementing
                                                                                                                                                                  Fig.5     Risk-Reward Index in Kenya – 2017 & 2018
                                                                                                                meaningful changes in these areas, not                                                                                                                                            2012. Economic growth is expected to
         2017                                                                                                   least South Africa’s combative trade                                                                                                                                              pick up this year, supported by more
Risk

                                                                                                                                                                          2017                                                                                                                    favourable weather conditions (relative
                                                                                                                unions. Disappointing performances in the

                                                                                                                                                                 Risk
         2018                                                                                                   mining and manufacturing sectors meant                                                                                                                                            to 2016 and H1 2017), strong public
                                                                                                                                                                          2018                                                                                                                    investment (stimulating industry), and an
                                                                                                                that the economy hardly expanded in Q1.
                                                                                                                Furthermore, headwinds are gathering                                                                                                                                              improvement in business sentiment as
                0       1        2        3        4         5     6        7         8         9        10
                                                                                                                for consumers, with the recent surge in                          0        1         2         3          4         5            6           7      8          9         10        political tensions resulting from electoral
                                                                                                                international oil prices pushing fuel costs                                                                                                                                       dramas in 2017 subside. Real GDP growth
         2017                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     is projected to average just under 6%
Reward

                                                                                                                to all-time highs. We have revised our GDP
                                                                                                                                                                          2017
                                                                                                                                                                 Reward

                                                                                                                growth forecast for 2018 marginally lower                                                                                                                                         p.a. over the next four years, with the
         2018                                                                                                   from 2.0% to 1.9%, and are keeping next                                                                                                                                           development of the domestic hydrocarbons
                                                                                                                                                                          2018
                                                                                                                year’s GDP growth forecast unchanged                                                                                                                                              sector gaining some momentum towards
                0       1        2        3        4         5     6        7         8         9        10     at 2.0%.                                                                                                                                                                          the end of the decade.
                                                                                                                                                                                 0        1         2         3          4         5            6           7      8          9         10

06                                                                                                                                                               *Read more on Africa’s debt problem here: https://www.controlrisks.com/riskmap-2018/articles/at-debts-door
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 07
Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

                                                                                                                            Stuck in the middle – Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire

                                                                                                                            Côte d’Ivoire has experienced an                                               mining sectors seeing considerable growth.              Shortcomings in disarmament and security
                                                                                                                            impressive recovery since the 2010-11                                          Côte d’Ivoire has achieved one of the                   sector reform pose longer-term threats to
                                                                                                                            crisis, in which a disputed election result                                    highest growth rates in the world, averaging            security and national stability, as highlighted
                                                                                                                            led to a civil conflict. Prioritising economic                                 8.5% annually between 2012 and 2017.                    by army mutinies, protests by former
                                                                                                                            growth, the government has collaborated                                                                                                combatants, clashes between rival security
                                                                                                                            with international institutions; improved                                      Major obstacles to a full recovery                      forces and attacks on security posts in
                                                                                                                            macroeconomic management; invested in                                          persist. President Alassane Ouattara has                2017. Finally, competition is increasing over
                                                                                                                            infrastructure; adopted new investment,                                        struggled to establish a truly technocratic             Ouattara’s succession in 2020, with rivalries
                                                                                                                            petroleum and mining codes; reformed                                           government, and political interference                  within and between the ruling coalition and
                                                                                                                            the agricultural sector; and simplified                                        and corruption continue to permeate the                 opposition likely to provide for a volatile
                                                                                                                            bureaucratic procedures. Côte d’Ivoire                                         business environment. Growth has not                    election cycle. Côte d’Ivoire will need to
                                                                                                                            has ranked as one of the top business                                          been inclusive – unemployment and poverty               carefully navigate these challenges in the
                                                                                                                            reformers in recent years according to                                         rates remain high and socioeconomic                     coming years to ensure continued foreign
                                                                                                                            the World Bank. Investors have flocked                                         discontent fuelled protests in 2017. Political          investment and high economic growth.
                                                                                                                            back to the country, with the construction,                                    and national reconciliation have also
                                                                                                                            telecommunications, banking, retail and                                        stalled, undermining Ouattara’s legitimacy.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics

                                                                                                                              Fig.7                      Risk-Reward Index in Côte d’Ivoire – 2017 & 2018                                                          The economic perspective

                                                                                                                                                       2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Strong economic growth is supported by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   continued government spending in line with

                                                                                                                         Risk
                                                                                                                                                       2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the implementation of the 2016-20 National
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Development Plan (NDP), which includes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   efforts to improve infrastructure spending
                                                                                                                                                              0          1       2        3            4      5       6        7         8         9        10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   and create a better business environment.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   An improved business climate has the
                                                                                                                                                       2017                                                                                                        potential to attract more foreign investment,

                                                                                                                         Reward
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   an imperative for future economic growth.
                                                                                                                                                       2018                                                                                                        Foreign direct investment (FDI) prospects
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   are promising, and the relatively stable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   macroeconomic environment and high
                                                                                                                                                              0          1       2        3            4      5       6        7         8         9        10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   economic growth rates are expected
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   to continue attracting foreign investor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   interest. Despite the projection of strong
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Oxford Economics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   fiscal spending, we expect the fiscal
                                                                                                                              Fig.8                      Industrial Production Index (Côte d’Ivoire)                                                               deficit to remain sustainable, largely due
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   to continued efforts to widen the tax base.

                                                                                                                         Industrial production index
                                                                                                                                                       200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The short-term economic growth outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   remains positive: we forecast a real GDP
       Investors often focus on Africa’s giants of Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa. But in the second tier of African                                  150                                                                                                         growth rate of 7% for 2018.
       economies a number of countries are competing for attention. The rewards offered by mid-sized economies
       such as Cameroon, Zambia, Uganda or Tunisia may not be as great, but they offer untapped opportunities with
                                                                                                                                                       100
       typically manageable risks.

       Careful understanding of these markets is required, as appearances can be deceiving. Two key examples of this                                    50
       are Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal. Over the past few years Côte d’Ivoire has enjoyed rapid economic growth; Senegal                                            2008   2009    2010     2011     2012      2013   2014     2015     2016     2017      2018
       has been more muted. Looking forward, however, Senegal’s relationship between risk and reward marks it out as a
       promising investment destination.

08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           09
Africa Risk-Reward Index June 2018 - Presseportal
Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018                                                                                                                             Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

Senegal has enjoyed a positive reputation               However, Senegal’s economic trajectory
for stability and democratic tradition,                 has followed a positive trend in recent                 The economic perspective
having never experienced a coup since                   years. President Macky Sall in 2014                     Under the PSE, growth has increased
independence and managing several                       launched a USD 19bn economic                            steadily over the last three years, reaching
peaceful transfers of power since the                   development plan, the Emerging Senegal                  close to 6.4% in 2017. Besides strong
1990s. Nonetheless, the country has                     Plan (PSE), which includes a series of                  public spending, other factors that
long struggled to attract high levels                   reforms and public infrastructure projects              positively influenced growth were growing
of foreign investment in light of a lack                to improve the business environment. The                exports, buoyed by a more diversified base
of exploitable natural resources and a                  PSE is starting to pay off, with growth rates           in fishing, agriculture and mining, as well as
range of operational issues, including a                nearing 7% annually since 2016, making                  more favourable terms of trade. Senegal’s
cumbersome bureaucracy and a power                      Senegal one of the continent’s strongest                economic outlook remains positive. We
sector crisis. Growth rates barely reached              performers. Meanwhile, promising offshore               forecast growth to remain buoyant at 6.7%
3%-4% annually during the last two                      oil and gas discoveries since 2014 have                 in 2018 and 6.9% in 2019 while authorities
decades, with the Senegalese economy                    attracted growing interest from international           continue to invest in infrastructure and
remaining much smaller than those of Côte               majors, and could bring significant                     implement structural reforms to improve the
d’Ivoire and Ghana, for example.                        additional revenue in the longer term.                  business environment. It is an imperative
                                                                                                                for the country to create a more favourable
                                                                   Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics
                                                                                                                investment environment so that future
 Fig.9     Risk-Reward Index in Senegal – 2017 & 2018                                                           growth is led by the private sector.

         2017
Risk

         2018

                0       1       2        3        4        5       6        7         8         9        10

         2017
Reward

         2018

                0       1       2        3        4        5       6        7         8         9        10

10                                                                                                                                                                                               11
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Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018                                                                                                          Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

                                       Promising news in the north – Morocco

                                       For the second year in a row, Morocco           efforts to address social grievances –
                                       has the lowest risk score (4.09) of any         including reducing the economic disparities     The economic perspective
                                       large economy in the Africa Risk-Reward         between rural and urban areas – have            After averaging 4.1% in 2017, economic
                                       Index. Its reward score (5.77) may not          had limited results. Localised protests         growth is forecast to ease to 3.2% in
                                       dazzle, but it remains comfortably above        against high unemployment rates and             2018 due to a cyclical downturn in
                                       the regional average. Investors are             poor living conditions occur on a daily         agricultural production, which continues
                                       beginning to take notice.                       basis. Establishing stronger ties between       to make the difference between a good
                                                                                       Morocco and West Africa continues to            and bad economic year in Morocco.
                                       Morocco remains politically more stable         drive the kingdom’s foreign and trade policy    Lower agricultural activity coupled with
                                       than its neighbours in North Africa. The        at the regional level, and these efforts were   higher inflation will weigh on private sector
                                       elected government under the authority of       bolstered when the Economic Community           consumption and weaken real GDP
                                       King Mohammed VI continues to gradually         of West African States (ECOWAS) agreed          growth. Nonetheless, the industrial sector
                                       implement economic and social reforms           in principle to Morocco’s accession in          will be supported by strong investment,
                                       aiming at improving the country’s resilience    June 2017. However, concerns among              as well as continued development of high
                                       to external shocks, making its exports more     member states over the regional diplomatic      value-added manufacturing industries,
                                       competitive, and enabling it to become less     balance of power, customs tariffs and           while the services sector will be boosted
                                       reliant on imports. These efforts improved      freedom of movement are likely to lead to a     by noticeable efforts to increase tourism.
                                       the business environment and turned             postponement of Morocco’s full admission        Medium-term growth will be enhanced
                                       Morocco into the leading destination for        beyond 2018.                                    by continued reforms to improve labour
                                       FDI in North Africa. The automotive and
                                                                                                                                       participation and efficiency, access to
                                       aeronautical industries continue to thrive as   Despite these issues, Morocco remains on
                                                                                                                                       finance, quality of education and the
                                       authorities aim to position the kingdom as a    track to consolidate its position as North
                                                                                                                                       business environment, as these represent
                                       regional industrial hub.                        Africa’s investment hub and the gateway
                                                                                                                                       the primary constraints to competitiveness
                                                                                       between Europe and Africa.
                                       There are challenges though. Social                                                             and doing business, and it is positive that
                                       tensions in less developed regions remain                                                       decision-makers recognise this.
                                       a key concern for the government, and

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Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Africa Risk-Reward Index - June 2018

Annex                                                                                                                                                      About us

Methodology                                                                                                   Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics                                                                                                                       Source: Control Risks and Oxford Economics

The Africa Risk-Reward Index is defined        Fig.10     EPRE methodology                                                                                 Fig.11   About us

by the combination of risk and reward
scores, integrating economic and political         Political     Rating                                                        Credit       Rating                                                         Risk assessment
                                                   stability                                                                    risk        Weight
risk analysis by Control Risks and NKC
                                                                 Weight                                                                                                                                    • Measure the full risk impact, including its severity, speed and timing.
                                                                                                                                                                                                           • Assess the spillover effects on countries, markets and risk categories.
African Economics.
                                                   Social        Rating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Scenarios and stress-testing
                                                  cohesion       Weight                                                        Trade        Rating
Risk scores                                                                       POL                ECON                       risk                                                                              • Use scenario analysis to gauge vulnerability to future risks and assign probabilities.
                                                                                                                                            Weight
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Forecast the impact of alternative economic and political events on strategies and investments.
                                                 International   Rating
The risk scores replicate the scoring of                                        Combined           Combined
                                                   relations     Weight           rating             rating
each country within the joint product                                                                                        Exchange       Rating                                                                Benchmarking and modelling
                                                                                                                                risk        Weight                                                                • Identify the range of traditional and non-traditional risks that can affect your business.
offering Economic and Political Risk                             Rating
                                                  Business                                                                                                                                                        • Determine the risk linkages, such as between economic, political, and financial events.
Evaluator (EPRE) of Control Risks and            environment     Weight
Oxford Economics, the majority shareholder                                              Overall rating
                                                                                                                              Market        Rating                                                           Scanning the horizon
of NKC African Economics. Control Risks            Security      Rating                                                     demand risk     Weight                                                           • Spot emerging risks and forecast new ones through early-warning systems.
                                                 environment     Weight                                                                                                                                      • Compare the range of changes in the global risk landscape.
and Oxford Economics analysts rate
a series of political and economic risk
                                                   Ideology      Rating                                                        Market       Rating
factors on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10          and policy                                                                  cost risk
                                                                 Weight                                                                     Weight
representing the highest level of risk. Each
political and economic rating is assigned a                                                                                                                Control Risks                                 NKC African Economics                                   Control Risks and Oxford Economics
default weight, based on its significance in
the country context and its potential impact   multiply where economic growth is strong.         metrics, the current account, financial                   Control Risks exists to make our clients      NKC African Economics, based in South                   Control Risks and Oxford Economics
on business. The individual political and      But the absolute size of the economy              structure (including banking sector stability)            succeed. We are a specialist global risk      Africa, is a majority-owned subsidiary                  have joined forces to provide an innovative
economic risk variables are then combined      makes a difference, too: 0.3% GDP growth          and investment. Demographics are                          consultancy that helps to create secure,      of Oxford Economics that specialises in                 political and economic risk forecasting
– multiplying rating by weighting – into the   in South Africa in 2016, for example,             incorporated through the formulation of a                 compliant and resilient organisations in an   political and macroeconomic research in                 service that takes a holistic view of risk in a
overall risk rating of a country.              represented extra value added of USD              demographic dividend, which incorporates                  age of ever-changing risk.                    Africa. NKC investigates and interprets                 complex, rapidly changing, globalised world.
                                               830m, while 5.9% growth in Rwanda                 population size, urbanisation and                                                                       the sovereign risk, and political and
Reward scores                                  translated into just over USD 500m in             dependency ratios.                                        Working across disciplines, technologies      macroeconomic conditions, of 30 African                 Control Risks and Oxford Economics
                                               new value added. So our score also                                                                          and geographies, everything we do is          countries to caution against pitfalls and               combine extensive geopolitical, operational
The reward scores incorporate medium-          incorporates a weight for economy size.           For details on the individual risk and reward             based on our belief that taking risks is                                                              and security expertise with rigorous
                                                                                                                                                                                                         guide investors towards opportunities.
term economic growth forecasts,                                                                  definitions, please contact us.                           essential to our clients’ success.                                                                    economic forecasts and models on 200
economic size, economic structure and          The economic structure indicator derives                                                                                                                  NKC has a strong reputation for                         countries and 100 industries.
demographics. The economic growth              from the ‘economic structure risk’                enquiries@controlrisks.com or                             We provide you with the insight to focus      independence and quality with a team
outlook has the biggest weight in the          component of NKC’s sovereign risk rating          africa@oxfordeconomics.com                                resources and ensure you are prepared to                                                              Together, we offer full-spectrum consulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                         of 31 staff, including 21 analysts. The
reward score, as investment opportunities      model, which takes into account debt                                                                        resolve the issues and crises that occur in   analysis team includes economists,                      that enables your organisation to navigate
                                                                                                                                                           any ambitious global organisation.            econometricians, political analysts and a               the world of political and economic risk.
                                                                                                                                                                                                         financial economist.                                    Covering all aspects of the investment
                                                                                                                                                           We go beyond problem-solving and give                                                                 journey, including security and integrity risk,
                                                                                                                                                           you the insight and intelligence you need     Apart from the sovereign risk rating model              our joint consultancy practice can overlay
                                                                                                                                                           to realise opportunities and grow. From the   service, NKC provides bespoke ad-hoc                    geopolitical and economic scenarios to
                                                                                                                                                           boardroom to the remotest location, we        research on any topic that requires analysis of         bring new insights and direction.
                                                                                                                                                           have developed an unparalleled ability to     the political or macroeconomic environment
                                                                                                                                                           bring order to chaos and reassurance to       of Africa, or any African country.
                                                                                                                                                           anxiety. www.controlrisks.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                         www.africaneconomics.com

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