RETURN ON BOWLING OPTIMISATION TOOL (ROBOT) - Quantium - Alistair Knox - Dhairaya Agarwal Liam Gage Brown - Nitish Arora - Oliver Stannus
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RETURN ON BOWLING OPTIMISATION TOOL (ROBOT) Quantium - Alistair Knox - Dhairaya Agarwal - Liam Gage Brown - Nitish Arora - Oliver Stannus
Cricket captains can make bad decisions…
… but we can help them make good ones…
R.O.B.O.T.
Return on Bowling Optimisation Tool
… so Australia wins the T20 World Cups in 2020!
Being able to predict a wicket can have substantial impact on club success, on and
off the field
01 Lower opposition scores1 Teams score 10 runs less when they lose a wicket in the first over
02 Better win rates1 Teams win 61% of the time when they take a wicket in the first over
Better fan
03 engagement2
In the AFL, attendance increases by 16% and TV watchers by 14% following a win for
the home team compared to those who have lost
Source: 1 – Cricket Australia data source (BBL & WBBL), 2 – AFL data source
Glenn Maxwell chose eight different bowlers to open the bowling during the last BBL.
Who should he turn to in the final?
• Who should Glenn Maxwell choose to bowl the first over to Marcus Harris and Aaron Finch in the BBL final?
• And what types of delivery should they deliver?
Bird Bravo Lamichhane Maddinson
Harris Finch
Maxwell Stoinis Worrall Zampa
Enter ROBOT. With data analytics, we empower the captain to choose the right
delivery by the right bowler for the right occasion
In combination, we can predict wicket-taking deliveries
and the bowler best placed to deliver them
Deliveries can be categorised (by line,
length, speed and over/around the wicket) E.g. odds of a wicket by line and length for a
particular batter and bowler combination
Bowlers specialise in deliveries, and have
varying experience and wicket-taking
capability across delivery types
Batters are also each more susceptible to
losing their wicket for particular types of
delivery
We built a prototype model predicting likelihood of taking a wicket, utilising bowler
and ball type as the two main levers available to the captain
Model features Bowler Batter Other
Bowler history Batter history Situational
• Hand • Hand • Ground
Worrall • Strike rate • Strike rate • Gender
• Economy rate • Run average • Innings
• Etc. • Etc. • Etc.
OTW Slow Off-Stump Full Wicket
likelihood
Bowler proficiency Batter susceptibility
• By ball type • By ball type
Wicket
Limitations and
Ball type assumptions
Rate
• Proof-of-concept model
• Trained on first 6 overs
only
• Batter/bowler history
from previous season
• No fielding ‘levers’
Note: All the features were created using the datasets provided, i.e. Cricket
Australia data source (BBL & WBBL)
Proportion of a wicket taking ball type bowled, average number of wickets and bowler
economy rate were the top features fitted in the model
The relationships between the top features and model prediction
High
Increasing trend in the wicket Wicket likelihood decreases
likelihood based on the number of with an increasing economy
wickets taken in the previous season rate of a bowler
Wicket Likelihood Higher the proportion of ball
type bowled historically,
higher the likelihood of a
wicket in the match given
batsmen susceptibility
Average number of wickets Bowler Economy Rate
Low High
Proportion of Ball Type bowled
Note: All the features were created using the datasets provided, i.e. Cricket
Australia data source (BBL & WBBL)
So what decision should Glenn Maxwell have made?
Actual Decision Best Prediction
Over the wicket, Fast Medium, off stump, short of a length Around the wicket, slow, middle stump, good length
Frank Glenn
Worrall Maxwell
Glenn Maxwell is 1.2x more likely to get Marcus Harris out on the first ball which is expected to give
the Melbourne Stars a 0.5% additional advantage to win the match
ROBOT can help Australia win the 2020 men and women’s T20 World Cup
Team selection Guide selectors to optimise the team that will maximise the
chances of winning given the opposition team
Guide the captain to select the right bowler at the right time to
Bowler selection
maximise the chances of a wicket given the batsman
Delivery Guide the bowler to select the right ball to the right batsman at
strategy the right time
Using the power of data analytics to make better decisions, we
can win matches and bring home both T20 trophies!
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