ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY - Reducing emissions and driving growth across the nation
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ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary Reducing emissions and driving growth across the nation
This report was developed with input from 20 companies and organizations:
Air Liquide Microsoft
Air Products Nikola Motors
American Honda Motor Co., Inc Nel Hydrogen
Audi Plug Power
Chevron Power Innovations
Cummins Inc. Shell
Daimler AG: Mercedes-Benz Southern California
Fuel Cell GmbH/Mercedes-Benz Gas Company
Research & Development Southern Company
North America Services, Inc.
Engie Toyota
Exelon Corporation Xcel Energy
Hyundai Motor Company
The authors would like to thank the Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy
Association for coordinating the group and managing the process, the
Electric Power Research Institute for contributing scientific observations
and technical input, and McKinsey & Company for providing analytical
support. The authors also wish to acknowledge the US Department
of Energy’s National Laboratory technical experts Amgad Elgowainy
from Argonne National Laboratory and Mark Ruth from the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory for independent analysis and review.
Copies of this document can be downloaded from ushydrogenstudy.org.
Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged.CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
VISION FOR A HYDROGEN ECONOMY 3
ROAD MAP TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY 9
2020 to 2022: Immediate next steps 12
2023 to 2025: Early scale-up 12
2026 to 2030: Diversification 12
After 2030: Broad rollout across the US 13
PATH FORWARD 15
ENDNOTES 16ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 2
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
Fifty years ago, the US put the first light-duty, or material-handling new hydrogen technologies for
iii
man on the moon. The Apollo 11 vehicles, produce no tailpipe industrial-scale applications.
mission relied on a hydrogen-powered emissions, and hydrogen can be
fuel cell system, which supplied produced with near-zero carbon Investment is needed to lay
electricity and water for the mission, emitted, even on a lifecycle basis. the groundwork for hydrogen
and on liquid hydrogen as fuel to A vibrant hydrogen industry would solutions. Capital is required
propel the rockets. Since 1969, maintain US energy leadership and to build foundational hydrogen
America has remained a leader in security, create jobs, significantly infrastructure and companies
fuel cell and hydrogen technology, reduce carbon emissions, and need the right incentives to
commercializing a wide range support economic growth. invest in low-carbon hydrogen
of technologies that produce, solutions. Regulatory barriers and
deliver, store, and utilize hydrogen The time to boost support for appropriate codes and standards
across applications and sectors. hydrogen is now. Decisions and need to be addressed to enable
Today, the hydrogen industry as investments made now will have large-scale commercialization
well as the US are at a crossroads long-term impact. Moreover, many and a robust, reliable supply
as the country’s energy future energy infrastructure decisions chain. Funding is required for
is determined. take a long time to implement. more research, development,
Other countries are laying plans demonstration, and deployment for
The energy system across the US for hydrogen economies, and hydrogen technologies, to improve
is evolving. From power generation the US will need to move quickly competitiveness and performance.
to transportation, new technologies to continue to lead in this growing Directing capital to hydrogen is key to
are gaining share. Companies are industry. US Department of Energy enabling its growth in the US.
grappling with decarbonization, funding for hydrogen and fuel cells
preservation of natural resources, has ranged from approximately
aging infrastructure, energy $100 million to $280 million per
storage, an evolving regulatory year over the last decade, with
landscape, and new customer approximately $150 million per year
i
demands. The resiliency and since 2017. Other countries are
reliability of our energy system are also investing heavily in hydrogen.
growing concerns. For example, Japan’s Ministry of
Economy, Trade, and Industry has
Hydrogen is key to overcoming announced hydrogen funding of
ii
these challenges. Hydrogen is approximately $560 million for 2019.
an energy carrier that cuts across China has announced hydrogen
sectors and has multiple benefits. transport industry investments of
It can be used to store energy over more than $17 billion through 2023.
long periods of time and transport In Europe, Germany’s investment
energy over large geographies. includes $110 million annually to
FCEVs, whether heavy-duty, fund research laboratories to testROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 3
Vision for a hydrogen
economy
Hydrogen is critical for a lower- to regions looking to develop their that are difficult to decarbonize,
carbon energy mix. It can be used hydrogen infrastructure, such as such as long-distance road
broadly across several industries, Europe, China, Japan, Korea, and transport and high-grade heat.
including for transport, steel, Australia. By 2030, the hydrogen Besides lower carbon emissions,
ammonia, methanol, refining, economy in the US could generate hydrogen used as vehicle fuel
in residential and commercial an estimated $140 billion per year in completely eliminates emissions
buildings, and in the power system. revenue and support 700,000 total of tailpipe particulates, nitrogen
By our modeling estimates, jobs across the hydrogen value oxides (NOx), and sulfur oxides (SOx),
hydrogen can help meet 14 percent chain. By 2050, it could drive growth improving regional air quality while
of US final energy demand by 2050, by generating about $750 billion per reducing greenhouse gas emissions
the equivalent of over 2,468 TWh or year in revenue and a cumulative (GHG) emissions.
1 2
8.4 billion MMBTU per year. 3.4 million jobs (Exhibit 1).
Hydrogen enables better
A competitive hydrogen industry By utilizing domestic energy integration of low-carbon electric
will reinforce US energy leadership. resources and increasing energy power resources. Grid-connected
The US is now the world’s largest resiliency, hydrogen will help to electrolyzers that produce hydrogen
producer of natural gas and oil, preserve our national energy could provide a significant source
exporting to more than 35 countries. security. Hydrogen production of flexibility for intermittent
As countries around the world would use abundant renewable renewables, providing long-
look to hydrogen to reduce carbon resources, natural gas, and carbon duration storage solutions that are
emissions, the US has an opportunity storage, and enable a competitive complementary to short-duration
to reinforce and grow its energy nuclear industry. Long-term energy battery solutions. In addition, they
leadership position and create storage with hydrogen will maximize can provide additional load for
jobs in this field. The competitive renewable energy production low-carbon power sources like
domestic supply of hydrogen will and use, further enhancing total renewable and nuclear power.
enable exports of the fuel to other domestic energy production and use.
markets that do not have such It would allow abundant domestic
competitive supplies. natural gas to continue to provide Hydrogen is a unique energy
affordable energy to meet demand, carrier with applications
A robust hydrogen industry will even in a decarbonized scenario, with
strengthen the US economy. This the application of carbon capture.
across sectors
growing industry creates jobs for Hydrogen can be used:
US citizens and revenues for US Hydrogen has significant
businesses. These businesses environmental and health benefits. In buildings. An estimated
operating in the hydrogen value chain Hydrogen is an especially valuable 47 percent of US homes currently
iv
will also grow by exporting technology solution for energy needs in areas have natural gas space heating,
1, 3
This ambitious scenario refers to the long-term potential of hydrogen in the US and is based on input from industry on achievable
deployment by 2030 and 2050. For details about the baseline and adoption rates, please refer to the methodology chapter and
the appendix.ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 4
Exhibit 1
Potential benefits of hydrogen in the US in the ambitious scenario – by the numbers
Hydrogen in the US could …
Strengthen Create a highly Provide significant Benefit the US
the US economy, competitive source environmental energy system
supporting up to: of domestically benefits and
produced low- improve air quality
emission energy
~$140 bn ~100% Less
in revenue domestically CO2, NOx, SOx, and
produced particulate emissions
in cities
0.7 m
jobs
… in 2030
~$750 bn ~100% -16% ~14%
in revenue domestically CO2 of final energy
produced demand
3.4 m -36%
jobs NOx
… in 2050
Note: Final energy demand excluding feedstock; share of abated CO2 emissions relative to US emissions in 2050 as forecasted in the IEA
Reference Technology Scenario; for NOx tailpipe emissions only, based on EPA current NOx emissionsROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 5
and another 3 to 8 percent feedstock in industrial processes such turbines (at a new or retrofitted
(depending on region) use liquified as steelmaking, chemical production, power station). In this way,
v
petroleum gas (LPG) heating. and refining, or as a heating source to hydrogen can provide a long-
Replacing or blending some natural replace fossil fuels. In steelmaking, term, high-capacity electricity
gas with low-carbon hydrogen for example, hydrogen can work storage mechanism.
would lower GHG emissions as a reductant, substituting coal or
of residential, commercial, and natural gas. Other heavy industrial In the ambitious scenario,
industrial heating, without new sectors like ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen demand potential across
infrastructure deployment. This can refining already use large quantities all these applications could reach
be achieved by blending hydrogen of traditional hydrogen (synthesized 17 million metric tons by 2030 and
into the natural gas grid or deploying from natural gas) and would need to 63 million metric tons by 2050.
stationary fuel cells directly in transition to low-carbon hydrogen to This demand would be primarily
buildings to generate electricity and reduce their emissions. driven by the use of hydrogen
use the heat they produce in lieu of as a transportation fuel, as fuel
traditional space and water heaters. As backup power or off-grid for residential and commercial
power. Through stationary fuel buildings, and as feedstock in
In transport. Transport accounts for cells, hydrogen provides clean, industrial processes like ammonia
vi
a third of US carbon emissions and noiseless, and odorless power. It and methanol production, and
directly affects air quality in cities. provides backup power for data refining (Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3).
FCEVs and battery-electric vehicles centers, hospitals, and other critical
(BEVs) are the only zero-emissions infrastructure, as well as off-grid
vehicle (ZEV) solutions to reduce power on military bases and in other
emissions for light-duty, heavy-duty, remote facilities with fast ramp-up
and material-handling vehicles. With or ramp-down capabilities. The use
fueling times similar to conventional of hydrogen fuel cells instead of
gasoline or diesel vehicles, and with diesel generators in data centers
larger on-board energy storage appears on track to achieve cost
capacity than BEVs, FCEVs are parity in three to five years and has
a natural complementary ZEV additional advantages, such as
technology for the transport sector reduced clean-air permit constraints
to transition to zero carbon. This and increased operational
viii
makes light-duty and heavy-duty flexibility. It also has the potential
FCEVs a familiar and competitive to offer services back to the electric
mobility solution for customers who grid in the forms of energy storage
want the capability to refuel quickly, and peaking capacity.
drive long distances, carry heavy
loads, or have high uptime. On a total In the power system. Grid-
cost of ownership (TCO) basis, connected hydrogen production
FCEVs could break even between could support the deployment of
2025 and 2030 with the cost of variable renewables, by providing
internal combustion engine (ICE) demand flexibility to the system.
vehicles in applications requiring Electrolyzers have the ability to
high uptime and fast fueling, and flex up and down to help match
they already cost less than BEVs the variable and intermittent
as forklifts and in fast charge supply profile of wind or solar
applications above 60 kW. energy. This improves the case for
renewables, as it partially offsets
In industrial processes. Industry the intermittency problems on
accounts for about 20 percent of the supply side. Where required,
vii
US carbon emissions. The hard- stored hydrogen can also be
to-decarbonize industrial sectors converted back into power via fuel
can use low-carbon hydrogen as cells or using hydrogen-ready gasROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 6
Exhibit 2
Hydrogen demand potential across sectors – 2030 and 2050 vision
Million metric tons per year
Additional upside from other uses:1
Synthetic jet fuel
Ammonia as fuel for shipping
11
63
2 New feedstock
4 Power generation and grid balancing
5 Fuel for industry
8 Fuel for residential and commercial buildings
27 Transportation fuel
20
1
17 3
14
10
16 16 Existing feedstock
13 13
10
0% 0.1% 1% 1% 14% H2 share of final energy demand2
Base Ambitious Base Ambitious
2015 2030 2050
1 Assuming that 20% of jet fuel demand would be met by synthetic fuel and 20% of marine bunker fuel by ammonia
2 Demand excluding feedstock, based on IEA final energy demand for the US
Note: Some numbers may not add up due to roundingROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 7
The US is uniquely the resilience and reliability
positioned to build a world- of the entire US energy system.
leading hydrogen economy The US is home to industrial
The US has the abundant, low-cost sector leaders capable of
primary energy sources needed to scaling a hydrogen economy.
produce low-carbon hydrogen. For US industrial leaders, such as
electrolytic hydrogen, the country has in the petroleum refining and
ample renewable and low-carbon advanced manufacturing industries,
electricity resources, including wind, have decades of experience
solar, hydropower, and nuclear. financing and managing capital-
The US is developing large-scale intensive megaprojects. With
renewable power, with forecasts for the right regulatory support, US
the costs of electricity production companies could mobilize large
ix
as low as $20 per MWh in 2030. private investments in hydrogen
Furthermore, a national portfolio equipment development, hydrogen
of small, modular nuclear reactors production, and distribution
to replace the current aging fleet of infrastructure. A large network of
conventional reactors beginning in US companies with expertise in
the 2030s could produce significant fuel cells, electrolyzers, reformers,
hydrogen at a stable cost and with and CCS are already helping to
a high capacity factor. bring equipment and production
costs down.
For hydrogen produced via natural
gas reforming with carbon capture For US transport, hydrogen is
and storage (CCS), the US has a strong low-carbon alternative.
abundant low-cost natural gas The US has a large long-haul
and carbon storage capacity. The trucking industry compared with
country’s natural gas reserves other markets, with about 180 billion
x xii
have prices as low as $2 to $3 per miles travelled per year. On
MMBTU. The US has the potential average, Americans drive more
xiii
to store as much as 3,000 metric than 12,000 miles per year per
3
gigatons of CO2 in technically vehicle – nearly twice as far as
accessible storage capacity, that people in other developed countries.
may be tapped pending public Buyers’ vehicle choices reflect this
xi
acceptance of the technology. need for long-distance capability,
as sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and
Utilizing all forms of domestic energy crossover vehicles have a projected
for hydrogen generation increases sales growth of 1 percent per year
energy security by decreasing in the next decade, while a 1 percent
energy imports. Hydrogen can be decline is projected for passenger
xiv
flexibly generated, which offers cars. Such long distances and
consumers the lowest cost of preferences for large vehicles favor
multiple energy sources at any FCEVs over BEVs.
given time and will create economic
growth across the US, including
in regions that are traditionally not
energy producers. Furthermore,
this flexibility of hydrogen increases
3
Equivalent to 600 years of current total US CO 2 emissions.ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 8
Exhibit 3
There are already many industrial applications in motion that are short-term moves
Bubble size in the legend corresponds to
1 million metric tons of hydrogen
Potential hydrogen demand market size in 2030
Potential hydrogen demand market size in 2050
Established and Distributed power
emerging
Forklifts/material handling
Trucks (vans/light commercial vehicles, medium- and heavy-duty trucks,
captive trucks in ports and mines)
Light-duty passenger vehicles (all passenger cars including taxis, pickup
trucks, SUVs, crossovers)
Existing feedstock
Short-term
Steel (virgin steel only)
decarbonization
moves Aviation (low-carbon fuels)
High-grade industrial heat
Residential and commercial buildings
Long-term
Medium- and low-grade industrial heat
decarbonization
moves
Centralized powerROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 9
Road map to a hydrogen
economy
The full benefits of Hydrogen is at a turning point and
will benefit from economies of
policymakers and industry (Exhibit
4 and Exhibit 5).
hydrogen and fuel scale as it ramps up across states
cell technologies play and sectors in what is known as
sector coupling. Sector coupling
The road map is organized into
four key phases: 2020 to 2022,
out when deployed refers to “the idea of interconnecting 2023 to 2025, 2026 to 2030, and
(integrating) the energy-consuming post-2030. Each phase has specific
at scale and across sectors – buildings (heating and milestones for the deployment
multiple applications cooling), transport, and industry –
xv
of hydrogen across applications.
with the power-producing sector” Each phase also describes the key
in order to provide grid-balancing enablers required, categorized as
services to the power sector, (i) policy enablers and (ii) hydrogen
including supply-side integration supply and end-use equipment
focused on the integration of enablers. Policy enablers are
the power and gas sectors for needed initially to create the right
reliability and resiliency. When incentives to enable the private
deployed across multiple sector to invest in and develop
applications, systemic benefits the hydrogen market.
start to kick in: infrastructure costs
are shared across applications, The supply of hydrogen scales
technological developments in one up and shifts to low-carbon
application can be applied to others, technologies. Hydrogen is currently
and sector-coupling benefits play produced mainly from natural gas
a meaningful role. without CCS, which could deliver 40 to
50 percent lower GHG emissions
In this report, we describe a road than gasoline ICEs and zero tailpipe
xvi
map for transitioning to a hydrogen emissions for light-duty FCEVs.
economy in which hydrogen New low-carbon hydrogen production
becomes a mainstream fuel option. pathways using natural-gas
The road map was developed to reforming techniques exist, such as
put forward a concrete proposal for steam methane reforming (SMR)
various sectors and applications and autothermal reforming (ATR)
that may be developed and deployed with CCS or with renewable natural
4
in the coming years. It provides gas (RNG). Likewise, players can
milestones for deployment and scale up existing water electrolysis
leverages domestic strengths to with low-carbon electricity,
deliver on the vision set out in the first including renewables. As these
half of this report. This report aims production pathways grow, costs
to serve as a reference document for will decline significantly.
4
A methane-rich gas obtained from bio- and waste-based sources that can be a direct replacement for natural gas in many processes.ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 10
Exhibit 4
Hydrogen enablers road map
2020–2022 2023–2025 2026–2030 2031 and beyond
Immediate next steps Early scale-up Diversification Broad rollout
Policy support
Dependable, technology-neutral Policy incentives (state and Transition of policy Reduced/no direct policy
decarbonization goals in more federal) in early markets to incentives in fast-following support in certain
states and at the federal level transition from direct markets from direct applications when reaching
support to scalable market- support to scalable cost parity
Public incentives to bridge
based mechanisms market-based
barriers to initial market Robust hydrogen code at
mechanisms
launches, bring a wider range of Spread public incentives federal level
mature hydrogen solutions to bridging barriers to initial Applications to broaden
market, increase public market launches beyond beyond transport with
awareness and acceptance, pioneer states specific enabling policies
and continue to pilot hydrogen in other sectors (such as
Regulatory framework for
use across applications industry, power)
wider implementation of H2
Hydrogen codes and safety energy storage
standards, including blending
Implementation of cross-
standards, in certain US states
sectoral decarbonization
Policy/regulatory framework to policy initiatives to support
include grid stability mechanisms distributed energy resources
for long-duration energy storage,
including hydrogen
Workforce development
programs
Hydrogen supply and end-use equipment
First dedicated hydrogen First large-scale electrolyzer Development of Expanding use of hydrogen
production for mobility plants (50 MW+) electrolytic hydrogen across sectors, enabling
production with dedicated further cost reduction and
SMR with RNG feedstock and First large scale SMR/
renewables and nuclear performance improvement,
mid-scale SMR/ATR + CCUS1 ATR + CCUS
increasing further expansion
Development of SMR/ATR
Mid-scale electrolyzer plants Hydrogen pipeline/delivery of use across sectors
+ CCS2 to support
(10—50 MW) systems in industry clusters
increasing hydrogen Retrofitting of reforming
Development of gaseous and New FCEV makes and demand capacity with CCUS
liquid distribution in pioneer models brought to market
First hydrogen pipelines to Competition of electrolytic
states
Second-generation FCEVs connect production sites hydrogen production with
Introduction of hydrogen- and fueling stations for with demand centers SMR/ATR + CCS on cost,
tolerant equipment HDVs providing significant sector
Scale up of hydrogen
coupling with electricity
Second-generation FCEVs and equipment production
Introduction of pure
fueling stations for light-duty System compatibility to scale
hydrogen-tolerant
vehicles, buses, and material- hydrogen in the existing gas
equipment
handling vehicles infrastructure
First-generation FCEVs and Variety of vehicle models
fueling stations for heavy-duty available
vehicles
Fuel cells scaled up to 30+ MW
for data centers and facility
backup power
Initial pilots for energy storage,
enabling intermittent renewables,
nuclear, data centers, and
industrial applications
1 Carbon capture, utilization, and/or storage
2 Carbon capture and storageROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 11
Exhibit 5
Hydrogen applications road map
2020—2022 2023—2025 2026—2030 2031 and beyond
Immediate next steps Early scale-up Diversification Broad rollout
Applications
Under development
(e.g., pilots) or early
commercialization
Mature market
2050
Transportation Light-duty passenger ambitions
fuel vehicles
Light commercial
vehicles/buses
Centralized
Medium- and power
heavy-duty trucks Rail CCU
Pure H2 Steel
heating
Material
handling/ Low-
carbon Low/
forklifts medium
fuel2
Distributed power Blended H2 industrial
(other segments) heating heat
Distributed power Low-
Power (e.g., data centers) carbon
generation fuel1
Existing
and grid feedstock High-
balancing grade
industrial
Engineering heat
analysis and
pilot testing
R&D
investment
Fuel for
residential and Pilot testing
commercial
buildings
R&D
investment
and pilot testing
Feedstock for
industry and long-
distance transport Fuel for industry
1 Carbon capture and utilization (for chemicals production)
2 Biofuel, synfuel, ammoniaROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 12
2020 to 2022: Immediate liquid distribution. Pilots in other medium- and heavy-duty vehicles
next steps applications, such as blending in increase adoption in commercial
the gas grid, are pursued to prepare fleets in early markets.
In the first two to three years, for broader hydrogen adoption.
the aim is to establish dependable For building heating, early adopter
and technology-neutral At the end of 2022, the US market states start blending hydrogen
decarbonization goals in more for hydrogen across all segments in small percentages into gas
5
states and at the federal level, could total 12 million metric tons, distribution grids, driving at-scale
which will serve as a guide to compared to about 11 million metric hydrogen production. In transport,
specific policy and regulatory tons today. Roughly 30,000 FCEVs early adopter states build on their
actions, including updates to codes could be sold. In addition, with existing fleet and pilot stations to
and standards. Public incentives sufficient market demand, increase coverage and capacity
and standards can bridge barriers to there could be 50,000 material- in the fueling infrastructure for
initial market launch, bring a wider handling FCEVs in the field. light-duty passenger vehicles.
range of mature hydrogen solutions The next wave of states follows
to market, increase public their lead and develops hydrogen
awareness and acceptance, and 2023 to 2025: Early scale-up fueling infrastructure rollout
continue to pilot hydrogen use plans. Medium- and long-haul
in other applications. Progress By 2025, large-scale hydrogen trucking infrastructure is deployed
focuses on early commercially production is being developed, where there is known demand
viable applications in early adopter bringing the cost down and kicking on highly frequented routes. In
markets, like the expansion of FCEV off the scale-up of applications addition, the use of hydrogen
forklifts nationwide and further beyond early adopter states. fuel cells expands beyond newly
deployment of both light-duty and This requires clear regulatory constructed data centers and
heavy-duty vehicles in California. guidelines to coordinate market telecommunication towers to
These early applications require participants and attract investment. backup generation for buildings.
a combination of incentives to Policy incentives in early markets Existing hydrogen markets begin
reduce barriers to entry and market- begin transitioning from direct to convert to low-carbon hydrogen
facing mechanisms to enable scale. support to scalable market- sources as feedstock for industry.
based mechanisms.
In this phase, mature applications, At the end of 2025, total hydrogen
like forklifts, and applications close In this phase, the first large-scale demand could reach 13 million
to breaking even, such as backup hydrogen production facilities are metric tons across applications,
power solutions, scale up. In built using water electrolysis from and up to 150,000 light-, medium-,
transport, early adopter states focus renewables, gas reforming with and heavy-duty FCEVs could be
on developing fueling infrastructure RNG, or CCS. With the larger scale, sold. In addition, there could be
to support FCEV adoption and production costs fall, enabling new 125,000 material handling FCEVs
begin to see second-generation applications. Hydrogen-related in the field.
products in passenger vehicles and equipment, in particular vehicle
fueling stations. Fleets relying on fuel cell production and fueling
depot fueling, such as buses and station equipment, also scales up, 2026 to 2030: Diversification
light commercial vehicles, and first- enabling cost and performance
generation medium- and heavy-duty improvements. Medium- and heavy- The 2026 to 2030 phase is about
trucks, do not require a nationwide duty fuel cell electric trucks and new diversification beyond early adopter
network of fueling stations. Demand light-duty FCEV makes and models segments and early adopter
growth is sufficient for the first are brought to market, increasing states such as transportation
dedicated hydrogen production the offering for customers. and backup power, and about
facilities for transport, along with Second-generation high-throughput scaling up infrastructure across
for the development of gaseous and hydrogen fueling stations for the US. Expanded use of various
5
Nine states have made commitments to decarbonize their power sectors or focus on renewable energy, and four have made
major commitments to expand their decarbonization efforts beyond power (California, New York, Colorado, and New Jersey),
https://aceee.org/blog/2019/07/going-clean-how-energy-efficiency.ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 13
hydrogen production pathways and Post-2030: Broad rollout On top of manufacturing and
continued scale-up of electrolytic across the US production for the domestic
hydrogen production begins to market, exports of technology
create meaningful sector coupling After 2030, hydrogen is deployed and hydrogen to Europe and Asia
with electricity grids and renewable at scale in the US, across regions add to the US economy. Total
power production. The first and industries. Most applications revenue for the US hydrogen
hydrogen transmission pipelines achieve cost parity with fossil fuel industry could reach $750 billion
enable further cost reduction with alternatives through sufficient per year by 2050. This includes
seasonal grid firming and storage. pricing of externalities, and public hydrogen demand of 63 million
support for market introduction can metric tons and all equipment,
In transport, medium- and long-haul be phased out. including FCEVs (Exhibit 6).
trucking scales up across the US, as
heavy-duty, high-throughput hydrogen Over time, fossil fuel–based
fueling station infrastructure connects hydrogen production facilities
regional networks and creates are retrofitted with CCS and there
nationwide coverage. A majority of is open competition between
states now implement hydrogen different production methods for
road maps, creating widespread low-cost, low-carbon hydrogen
fueling infrastructure and unlocking production. The cross-sector
the full market for FCEVs. benefits of hydrogen deployment
create further synergies and
In industry, ammonia, methanol, drive costs down. The backbone
and petrochemical production infrastructure of the hydrogen
transitions to low-carbon economy starts consolidating
hydrogen, driving production through the emergence of
costs down for all sectors through large-scale, low-carbon hydrogen
large-scale hydrogen production. production facilities across the US,
Hydrogen-based synthetic fuel a hydrogen distribution pipeline
for aviation and shipping scales network, and a large fueling station
up as those industries seek to infrastructure network. There are
decarbonize their fuel supply. a wide variety of FCEV models
available to meet varying customer
At the end of 2030, hydrogen needs. As a result, significant GHG
demand tops 17 million metric tons reduction in hard-to-decarbonize
across applications, with 1.2 million industrial sectors and widespread
FCEVs sold, 300,000 material building decarbonization are
handling FCEVs in the field, and achieved, and a higher share of
4,300 fueling stations operating ZEVs are on the road.
across the nation. With hydrogen
production costs down and
infrastructure in place, hydrogen
solutions can compete. The
hydrogen economy attracts
investment to develop and scale
up. By 2030, annual investment is
estimated at $8 billion.ROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 14
Exhibit 6
Scaling hydrogen – ambitious road map milestones
Today 2022 2025 2030
Immediate next steps Early scale-up Diversification Broad rollout
11 m 12 m 13 m 17 m
H2
demand,
metric tons
2,500 30,000 150,000 1,200,000
FCEV
sales
25,000 50,000 125,000 300,000
Material-
handling
FCEVs
63 1652 1,0002 4,3003
Fueling
stations1
120 300 600 1,500
Material-
handling
fueling
stations4
$1 bn $2 bn $8 bn
Annual
investment
+50,000 +100,000 +500,000
New jobs5
1 Includes both fueling stations in operation and in development
2 Stations of 500 kg/day; does not include material-handling fueling stations
3 Stations of 1,000 kg/day; does not include material-handling fueling stations
4 Data from Plug Power
5 Includes direct, indirect, and resulting jobs, building on an estimated 200,000 jobs in the sector todayROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Executive summary 15
Path forward
To realize this road map, industry, Making systemic changes to pave
investors, and policymakers the way for a hydrogen economy
need to work together. To unlock
hydrogen’s potential in the US, Support research, development,
nine actions need to happen: demonstration, and deployment
Setting the north star Harmonize technical codes and
safety standards
Set dependable, technology-
neutral decarbonization goals. Support outreach and
workforce development
Kickstarting markets with
the needed incentives and support Review energy sector regulations
to ensure they account
Create public incentives to for hydrogen
bridge barriers to the initial
market launch The contributors to this report are
looking forward to working with
Support suppliers, customers, partners,
infrastructure development investors and policymakers to
enable the deployment of hydrogen
Expand the use of hydrogen technology in the US in line with
across sectors and achieve the long-term vision outlined here.
economies of scale
Include hydrogen-based options
in government procurementROAD MAP TO A US HYDROGEN ECONOMY Endnotes 16
ENDNOTES
i
US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program: Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation (DOE
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program, 2009 through 2019), https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review09/program_
overview_2009_amr.pdf.
ii
“Country Update for Japan,” (International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy, April 2019),
https://www.iphe.net/japan.
iii
Vanessa Dezem, “Germany Turns to Hydrogen in Quest for Clean Energy Economy,” (Bloomberg, August 2, 2019),
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-02/germany-turns-to-hydrogen-in-quest-for-clean-energy-economy.
iv
Chrishelle Lawrence et al., “US Households’ Heating Equipment Choices are Diverse and Vary by Climate Region,”
(US Energy Information Administration, April 6, 2017), https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30672.
v
“Beyond Natural Gas and Electricity; More Than 10% of US Homes Use Heating Oil or Propane”, (International Energy
Agency, November 28, 2011), https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4070.
vi
Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, (International Energy Agency, June 6, 2017), www.iea.org/etp2017.
vii
Ibid.
viii
“Construction Cost Data for Electric Generators Installed in 2017,” (US Energy Information Administration, 2018),
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/generatorcosts/.
ix
“2018 Annual Technology Baseline,” (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, July 2018), https://atb.nrel.gov/.
x
Tim Hess et al., “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” (US Energy Information Administration, September 10, 2019),
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php.
xi
Gary F. Teletzke et al., Evaluation of Practicable Subsurface CO2 Storage Capacity and Potential CO2 Transportation Networks,
Onshore North America, (Melbourne, 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, revised May 3, 2019).
xii
“2017 US Vehicle-Miles, Truck Combination,” data, (Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statics,
2018), https://www.bts.gov/content/us-vehicle-miles.
xiii
“Energy Systems Division: VISION 2019 Model,” (Argonne National Laboratory Transportation Systems Assessment
Group, 2019), https://www.anl.gov/es/vision-model.
xiv
“Automotive LV Sales Forecast,” (IHS Markit, 2019), https://ihsmarkit.com/products/automotive-light-vehicle-sales-
forecasts.html.
xv
Kerstine Appunn, “Sector Coupling - Shaping an Integrated Renewable Energy System,” (Clean Energy Wire,
April 25, 2019), https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/sector-coupling-shaping-integrated-renewable-
power-system#targetText=Sector%20coupling%20(German%3A%20Sektorkopplung),with%20the%20power%20
producing%20sector.
xvi
“Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Emissions,” (US Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center), https://afdc.energy.gov/
vehicles/emissions_hydrogen.html.You can also read
