Residential Development Review - Sydney Edition March 2019 - Sydney Dec 2018
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Residential Development Review A monitor of housing development, land release and transport infrastructure in the growing metropolis Sydney Edition March 2019
DISCLAIMER The data from this document has been collated by Mecone from various government sources. Whilst care has been taken in preparing the document, Mecone takes no responsibility for the accuracy of any of the information contained within this document. This document is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any reason without first independently verifying the data. 2 | MECONE >> Residential Development Review
Highlight
July-December 2018
We are pleased to draw on our planning and analytics Contents
expertise to present you this update on residential
development in Sydney. Growth Outlook
The residential market has changed substantially
04 A summary of actual and projected growth in popula-
tion, households, and dwellings in metropolitan Sydney
from a year ago. The price declines that began in
2017 Q3 have continued unabated while record Recent Dwelling Approvals
high dwelling completions flood the market with 06 Planning approvals of dwellings per local government
area across metropolitan Sydney
more supply. Despite the burst of completions, a
longer view both backward and forward shows that
Sydney still has a lot of work to do to adequately Greenfields Development Capacity
accommodate population growth. 08 The status and development capacity of Growth Areas in
Sydney’s outer metro area
Approvals have continued to fall since 2016 with
developers keenly aware of the changing market and Infrastructure Pipeline
tougher prospects for selling stock. The market has 10 An overview of transport infrastructure projects under
planning or construction across metropolitan Sydney
not completely collapsed, with greenfield activity still
strong and particular hotspots of infill development
still running strong.
One example is Parramatta LGA which saw over 2,700
dwellings approved in just six months to the end of
2018. There is a clear divide between east and west in
quantity of dwelling supply, as eastern LGAs mostly
continued to keep a lid on their growth.
Major infrastructure projects, aligned with the plans
A Metropolis of Three Cities and Future Transport
2056, are being delivered, built, and planned around
Sydney at a rapid pace. Highlights include the
imminent opening of Sydney Metro Northwest and
the Westconnex M4 East tunnels.
Ben Hendriks Mehra Jafari
Managing Director Director, Policy & Analytics
MECONE >> Residential Development Review | 3Growth Outlook
A summary of actual and projected growth in population, households, and dwellings in
metropolitan Sydney across a longer timeframe
Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment; Mecone estimate of required approvals; Mecone projections of approvals and completions 2019-2024
Sydney’s housing market is driven by several macro bringing dwellings to completion means that a peak
trends, the main one of which is population growth. in completions is now occurring while prices are
The population trends affecting Sydney include falling.
international and domestic net migration as well as
The number of approved dwellings has been higher
natural births and deaths. Including all these factors,
than the expected household growth in Sydney in
the state government projects Sydney’s population to
the last five years. However, actual completions were
grow by an average of 85k per year during 2011-2036.
generally under the required dwelling count prior
When trends in persons per dwelling are considered, to 2016. Since then, the number of completions has
the projection implies that 35k new dwellings must exceeded household growth, meaning an excess
be completed every year to maintain occupancy rates of supply is feeding back into market conditions.
and household size. The decline in approvals in 2017-18 means that
completions will also decline in the next 2-3 years,
Actual dwelling supply depends on the approval and
likely starting a new market cycle.
construction process as well as market conditions.
Sydney has gone through an extreme market cycle
9,925,550
over the last five years, causing prices and approvals
to surge to a peak in 2016 and 2017. The delay in 9,386,850
8,844,700
2036
8,297,500
2031
7,748,000 2026 6,421,950
NSW 7,218,550 2021 5,975,700
Population 5,537,800
2016
2011 5,106,450
4,681,800
Sydney Metro 4,286,350
Population
Actual approvals Required approvals Projected approvals
Actual completions Required completions Projected completions
30,000
Mecone Indicative
Amount per 6 months
Projection
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
6-Month Period
4 | MECONE >> Residential Development ReviewFive-Year Trends in Approvals by Type
July 2013 – December 2018
In the last five years, Sydney has experienced an
30,000
intense housing market cycle from growth to peak to
25,000 decline. During this time, the approvals data shows
a clear response to the market conditions. Approvals
20,000 Total across Sydney rose to a peak of 31k in 2016 H2 and
have declined by 30% since then as prices dropped.
15,000
Apartments have made up the vast majority of
Apartments
approvals across Sydney over the five-year period,
10,000
with a total of 165k multi-unit approvals vs 83k
Houses
5,000 detached approvals. This is a clear reflection of the
strategic planning emphasis on infill development.
0
13
4
14
5
15
6
16
7
17
8
18
01
01
01
01
01
20
20
20
20
20
20
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,
,
,
,
,
,
Y1
Y2
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
Five-Year Trends in Completions by Type
July 2013 – December 2018
30,000 Completions across Sydney are currently at their
highest point from the last five years. The data
25,000 Total indicates there is an average two-year lag between
approval and completion for a new dwelling. While
20,000 approvals can respond quicker to market conditions,
the resulting completions don’t occur until after
15,000
market conditions have changed. Sydney dwelling
Apartments
prices are currently declining due in part to the large
10,000
volume of completed dwellings coming online.
5,000 Houses
0
13
4
14
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
20
20
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,
,
Y1
Y2
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
Five-Year Trends in Approvals by Region
July 2013 – December 2018
10,000 The infill vs greenfield pattern also shows clearly
in the approvals by region. Most of the greenfield
8,000 development in Sydney is occurring in the Central
and Western Districts. The other three districts, with
6,000 virtually all infield development, still account for half
of Sydney’s approvals.
4,000 Approvals in all districts have followed the overall
five-year trend consistent with market conditions,
2,000 except for the Central District which has maintained
Central Eastern North South Western
an elevated rate of approvals while other districts
0 declined in 2018.
13
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
20
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,2
,
Y1
Y2
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
Y1
Y2
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
MECONE >> Residential Development Review | 5Recent Dwelling Approvals
Planning approvals of dwellings per local government area across metropolitan Sydney
Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment, MDP Housing Approvals and Completions Data (June 2012 – December 2016).
Recent Dwelling Approvals
July-December 2018
2,500 – 3,000
2,000 – 2,500
1,500 – 2,000
1,000 – 1,500
500 – 1,000
0 – 500
Growth area LGAs
SEE INSET
The five-year trends showed that dwelling approvals across It was generally true during 2018 that more dwelling
Sydney have generally declined in the last two years in approvals occurred per LGA from Parramatta westward. In
response to market conditions. However, the Central District the Eastern and North Districts, only three LGAs had more
has maintained an elevated rate of approvals. This pattern than 500 approvals in the half-year: Sydney, Bayside, and
has continued into the second half of 2018, when the Ryde. This is partly because the eastern LGAs are physically
Parramatta and Blacktown LGAs had the highest amount smaller, but they also face more constraints and community
of approvals out of all Sydney LGAs. The Parramatta LGA opposition against significant increases in residential
result is especially remarkable since it is essentially all infill development. Some smaller LGAs along or near Sydney
development, while the Blacktown LGA includes most of the Harbour had by far the lowest approval totals, such as
North West Growth Area greenfield development. Mosman with 7, Burwood with 13, and Hunters Hill with 19.
6 | MECONE >> Residential Development ReviewRecent Dwelling Approvals
July – December 2018
Houses Apartments 2014–18 Average Six-Monthly Total
Dwellings Per Six Months
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Parramatta
Blacktown
Central
The Hills Region
Cumberland
Bayside
Sydney
Inner West
Canada Bay
Strathfield Eastern
Region
Randwick
Woollahra
Waverley
Burwood
Ryde
Lane Cove
Hornsby
Ku-ring-gai
Northern Beaches Northern
Region
Willoughby
North Sydney
Hunters Hill
Mosman
Canterbury-Bankstown
Sutherland Southern
Region
Georges River
Liverpool
Camden
Campbelltown
Penrith
Western
Fairfield Region
Wollondilly
Blue Mountains
Hawkesbury
In the half year ending Dec 2018, many LGAs had dwelling The lowest proportion of detached dwelling approvals vs all
approval totals lower than their five-year averages, with approvals occurred in the Sydney, North Sydney, Lane Cove,
only 8 exceeding their averages. Some larger LGAs such as and Waverley LGAs. The highest proportion of detached
Sydney, Hornsby, Canterbury-Bankstown, and Georges River dwelling approvals occurred in Camden, Wollondilly, Blue
were 40-60% under their longer-term average approval Mountains, and Hawkesbury LGAs.
counts. This is a sign that the slowdown in development
The highest quantity of multi-unit dwelling approvals per
activity is not restricted to a specific geographic area. Of
LGA was far and away in Parramatta with 2,615, compared
the LGAs that did exceed their five-year average, most were
to the 2nd-highest value of 1,136 in Bayside. The highest
in outer suburban or greenfield areas, suggesting that
quantity of detached dwelling approvals per LGA was in
greenfield development may be holding up better.
Blacktown with 1,612; the 2nd-highest was 1,153 in Camden.
MECONE >> Residential Development Review | 7Growth Area Development Capacity
The status and development capacity of Growth Areas in Sydney’s outer metro area
Source: Geocoded National Address File (G-NAF) Feb 2019; NSW cadastre from Land and Property Information (LPI); LZN Land Zoning map and
Greenfield Housing Monitor from NSW Department of Planning and Environment (DPE); Mecone manual survey based on Nearmap imagery
South West Growth Area
In Sydney’s South West Growth Area,
dwelling construction has been most
active in the Catherine Fields, Edmondson
Park, and East Leppington precincts
in the last six months. The Northern
Road and Bringelly Road are both being
substantially upgraded, both to support
present residential development and
in anticipation of the Aerotropolis area
developing in coming years. Mixed-use
development around the South West Rail
Link (SWRL) stations has been zoned for,
but no substantial activity has occurred
yet in these zones. A handful of multi-unit
buildings have been built elsewhere in the
Growth Area.
Precincts not rezoned Precincts rezoned
Future employment Partially rezoned
Future suburban Rezoned for non-residential uses
Rezoned for residential use
Dwellings started
Sydney Metro Growth Centres
Developed Available Precinct (Capacity)
7% Austral (7,578 lots)
46% Catherine Field part (3,200 lots)
71% East Leppington (4,415 lots)
66% Edmondson Park (6,000 lots)
10% Leppington North (9,770 lots)
60% Oran Park (7,540 lots)
98% Turner Road (4,020 lots)
Unzoned Precincts: 52,000 lots
8 | MECONE >> Residential Development ReviewNorth West Growth Area
Precincts not rezoned Precincts rezoned
Future employment Existing residential area Partially rezoned Rezoned for residential use
Future suburban Rezoned for non-residential uses Dwellings started
Planning for the North West Growth Area is
Developed Available Precinct (Capacity)
well advanced including large tracts rezoned
and a draft Land Use and Infrastructure 39% Alex Avenue (8,505 lots)
Implementation Plan (LUIIP) released to shape
12% Box Hill (13,276 lots)
development in the coming years. The Sydney
Metro Northwest rail link, terminating in the 122% Colebee (1,000 lots)
Tallawong Station precinct, is approaching
22% Marsden Park (12,690 lots)
an opening date in May 2019. A corridor has
been protected for an extension of the rail line Marsden Park Industrial
71% (1,264 lots)
through Marsden Park.
54% North Kellyville (7,741 lots)
In the last six months, major building activity
has been occurring in the Marsden Park and 27% Riverstone (14,011 lots)
Schofields areas across several precincts. Across
1% Riverstone East (5,800 lots)
the entire North West Growth Area, only two
multi-unit buildings have been finished, both in 23% Schofields (3,876 lots)
the North Kellyville precinct. All other dwellings
5% Tallawong Station (4,962 lots)
have been fully or semi-detached.
Unzoned Precincts: 11,200 lots
MECONE >> Residential Development Review | 9Infrastructure Pipeline
An overview of the current transport infrastructure projects under planning or
construction across metropolitan Sydney
Source: various public documents and articles
Sydney Metro NorthConnex
Northwest
Western Harbour Tunnel
and Beaches Link
Parramatta
Light Rail
Sydney Metro
Sydney City & Southwest
Metro
Western
Sydney West
Airport
Sydney Metro WestConnex
Western Sydney M4 East
Airport WestConnex
M4 to M5 Link
CBD & SE
Light Rail
WestConnex
New M5
F6 North
Extension
The process for major transport infrastructure Sydney Metro Northwest line and the Westconnex
projects takes 2-3 years for design and approval plus M4 East tunnel. By 2020, several more projects will be
3-6 years of construction. This makes it critical to opening including Northconnex, the CBD & SE Light
look ahead at projected growth and plan out the Rail, and Westconnex New M5 tunnels.
infrastructure required to support the growth by
Construction has started for Sydney Metro CBD &
maintaining productivity and quality of life.
Southwest and will imminently begin on Parramatta
Sydney’s infrastructure boom is well under way with Light Rail Stage 1 and the Westconnex M4 to M5 Link.
several major projects about to be opened after years Planning is well advanced for Sydney Metro West and
under construction and many more in planning. the F6 North Extension and has begun for Sydney
The first major projects to be completed will be the Metro WSA and the Western Harbour Tunnel.
10 | MECONE >> Residential Development Reviewt
en
n
n
l
io
sm
va
tio
ct
ro
ec
es
ru
e
pp
ss
as
ot
st
n
A
A
Pr
C
n
io
Co
g
g
s
et
or
es
in
in
pl
er
id
nn
nn
in
m
nd
rr
us
la
la
Co
Co
U
B
P
P
Estimated
PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS Completion
Sydney Metro Northwest 2019
CBD & SE Light Rail 2020
Sydney Metro CBD & SW 2024
Parramatta Light Rail 2024
Sydney Metro West 2028
Sydney Metro Western
Sydney Airport
2026
Estimated
ROAD PROJECTS Completion
Westconnex – M4 East 2019
Northconnex 2020
Westconnex – New M5 2020
Westconnex – M4-M5 Link 2023
F6 Extension Stage 1 2026
Western Harbour Tunnel /
Beaches Link
2026
Selected Project Updates
Sydney Metro Northwest Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport
The project has finished construction and is in testing Initial planning is under way to define a route and
and commissioning. Operations are expected to staging options connecting WSA to the rail network.
commence in May 2019. The federal and state gov’ts have committed $7 billion.
Sydney Metro CBD & Southwest Westconnex – M4 East
Tunneling and station construction is in progress The opening date of the M4 East connecting Concord
between Chatswood and Sydenham. Bankstown Line and Haberfield is approaching in the next few
conversion contracts have been signed. months. Construction took three years and cost $3.8b.
Sydney Metro West Westconnex – M4-M5 Link
Integrated transport and land use planning is in Formal planning approval was granted in 2018 and
progress to support a final business case and defined early works have begun already.
route, committed by the state government.
Northconnex
Parramatta Light Rail
Tunnel excavation is nearing completion and fitout is
Stage 1 has been fully designed with $2.4 billion of under way. The $3 billion project is expected to open
funding committed. Construction contracts were in 2020 connecting Wahroonga and the M2.
signed in Dec 2018, work to begin imminently.
MECONE >> Residential Development Review | 11Committed to the creation of better urban environments.
Urban Analytics Strategic
and Policy Planning
Statutory Urban Graphics
Planning and Mapping
Sydney Brisbane
Level 12 Level 9
179 Elizabeth Street 307 Queen Street
Sydney NSW 2000 Brisbane QLD 3000
(02) 8667 8668 (07) 3556 4005
Western Sydney Melbourne
Level 2 Level 7
3 Horwood Place 333 Collins Stret
Parramatta NSW 2150 Melbourne VIC 3000
(02) 8073 4677 (03) 8547 9510
mecone.com.au
info@mecone.com.au
Discover Mosaic
Mecone’s latest online mapping
tool of planning information
mecone.com.au/mosaic
Clear thinking
Smarter solutions
Better outcomesYou can also read
