Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro

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Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
1

January 2020

Report 4:
The big
picture and
what’s in
store for
2020
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
2

Highlights
Xmas preparations were truncated by the election but clear verdict gave much-
needed clarity, let festivities begin and put a renewed focus on togetherness

      Get Christmas done! A      Festive nesting achieved!     Sensible spending!
      decisive election win      A family bubble away from     Ensured kids had a good
      paved the way for a        our troubled world            time then, for others,
      happier Christmas                                        found gifts that were
                                                               worthwhile

      Winning brands offered     2020 – ‘a time for me to      Bonus content!
      a compelling message       move forward’ (this is        The 6 wishes for 2020 and
      and executed it well       less about feeling rich and   how brands can help
      (harder to deliver than    more about feeling good)
      write down!)
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
3

Get Christmas
done! A decisive
election result
paved the way for
a happier Xmas
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
4

Get Christmas done!
Until mid-December the election overshadowed Christmas, which meant spend
came late and, as a result, more felt ‘exhausted’ by the race to the line

Estimated timing of Christmas spend
when asked in…
30%
                                                                                                       % Predicting they would feel   % Actually felt exhausted by
20%
                                                                                                       exhausted by Christmas         Christmas
10%

 0%
          -7%      -7%
-10%                                 -11%      -12%           -12%
                                                                        -15%
-20%                                                                                -20%
                                                                                             -22%
                                                                                                             14%          15%              28%           33%
-30%

-40%                                                                                                       Oct-18       Oct-19            Jan-19       Jan-20
          Oct-18

                    Oct-19

                                      Nov-18

                                               Nov-19

                                                               Dec-18

                                                                        Dec-19

                                                                                    Jan-19

                                                                                              Jan-20

          Earlier than previous year                    Later than previous years            Net

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,857) Jan 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
5

Get Christmas done!
The decisiveness of the result did, however, provide a boost for the nation – it
calmed fears about the Government and made us feel slightly less divided

Very concerned about the state of                     I worry that the country is more
UK politics                                           divided than ever before

                     40%
                              39%
      37%

                                              29%                28%      28%
                                                        26%
                                                                                          24%     12
                                                                                                  Dec
                              Pre-election

                                                                          Pre-election
    Oct-19         Nov-19    Dec-19*         Jan-20   Oct-19   Nov-19   Dec-19*          Jan-20

Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (2,021) Jan 2020
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
6

Get Christmas done!
And so optimism recovered in the aftermath of the election and people felt free to
focus on their Xmas wishes, ‘feel the festive spirit’ and ‘enjoy family time’

Net optimism about life at the moment when
asked in…
                                                                                   Biggest wish         Being excited
                                                                       OK!         for Christmas        by new
                                                                                                                        Feeling
                                                                                   2019                 experiences
                                                                                                                        absorbed
                                                                                                                        in Xmas
                                                                                                                        spirit
                                                                                             Enjoying
                                                                                             special or
                                                                                             luxury things

                                                                                                                         Enjoying
           44%          41%                  42%      41%        45%         45%               Feeling on top            being with
                                                                                               of Christmas              others
                 Nov                       Dec (pre-election)          Jan

                                           2018/19     2019/20

Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,857) Jan 2019) (1,507) Jan 2020
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
7

Get Christmas done!
The post-election ‘sigh of relief’ also buoyed spend – although the late/truncated
nature of spending probably means many overestimated just how much they spent

Estimated spend on Christmas when asked in…

50%                                                    Squeezed
40%                                                                                                     Timing of spend         Recency effect means, as we spent late, we
30%                                                                                                                             may well overestimate our total
                                                                                      23%      24%                              expenditure
20%                                                                18%
            15%      16%                  16%                                16%                                                This is because more recent information
10%                                                12%
                                                                                                        LY                      carries greater weight in our judgments
 0%                                                                                                     TY                      This is especially likely with money because
                                                                                                                                of the ‘physical pain’ we experience when
-10%
                                                                                                             Oct   Nov    Dec   our spending feels abnormally high. Pain =
-20%                                                                                                                            memorability!
-30%
                      Oct-19
            Oct-18

                                          Nov-18

                                                   Nov-19

                                                                    Dec-18

                                                                             Dec-19

                                                                                      Jan-19

                More than last year                         Less than last year       Net      Jan-20   More on what drove spend up comes later, on page 13

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,857) Jan 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
8

Festive nesting
achieved! A
family bubble in a
troubled world
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
9

Festive nesting achieved
2019 turned out to be the ‘at home’ Christmas most had hoped for – after a
difficult year, more than ever wanted just to cocoon with family and friends

Type of Christmas celebrations hoped for/experienced

                                                                                  The lateness of
                                                                                  planning making
                                                                                  an ‘at home’ Xmas
                                                                                  even more likely

      10%            12%                  36%     29%                 54%   60%

    Away from home                        Equally true                 At home

                               Hope (Oct-19)       Reality (Jan-20)

Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (2,009) Oct 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
Report 4: The big picture and what's in store for 2020 - Kokoro
10

Festive nesting achieved
Fears of Brexit arguments were replaced by a Christmas focused on Belonging –
with families spending more time together than in 2018

Views of Christmas
                                                                                             % Doing each over Christmas
                    Oct: Worries about                  Jan: relief everyone came together
                    family arguments                      and enjoyed the celebrations           Stayed with family
                                                                                                    Went for walks
                                                                                                Socialised at home
                                                                                               Got the house ready
                                                                                               Watched Xmas films
                                                                                             Special festive day out
                                                                                             Day out to city centre
                                                                                                    Went to church
    44%         42%                 40%    38%       41%    45%          43%      45%            Did acts of charity

  Love way Xmas                 Think Xmas is all                                               Planned Christmas
                                                    Love way Xmas      Think Xmas is all
   brings people                 about the kids      brings people      about the kids                                 0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
      together                                          together
                                                                                                               Jan-19     Jan-20
                  Oct-18          Oct-19                     Jan-19      Jan-20

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (2,009) Oct 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
11

Festive nesting achieved
More family get-togethers turned into ‘more presents to buy’ – and so, counter
to earlier predictions, slightly more people were bought for than in 2018

Who bought Christmas presents for

                                   65%
               My partner
                                   66%
                                                 Reason for spending more this year
                                   65%
Adult family members
                                   70%

                                   35%
            Adult friends
                                   35%

                                   18%
      Work colleagues
                                   20%

                                   12%           18% 25%   16% 19%   27% 28%    20% 20%    27% 26%    20% 19%    36% 33%
 Thank-you to adults
                                   14%
                                                 Saw more Wanted to Wanted a    Wanted to Food costs Financial Spent more
                                   61%            family/ savour Xmas special    try new    more     confidence per person
             My children
                                   64%
                                                  friends              Xmas       things
                                   35%
          Other children
                                   38%                                      2018           2019

                                  2018    2019

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,857) Jan 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
12

Festive nesting achieved
However, the last minute and ‘at home’ focus to Xmas made it feel ‘harder work’
than hoped for – could brands have done more to ‘ease the load’?

Type of Christmas celebrations hoped for/experienced
                                                                                                                                 Countdown
                                                                                                                                   guides

                                                                                             Selling the           Making
                                                                                             dream of              Christmas
                                                                                             Christmas             easy for me

 25% 17%              45% 36%             30% 47%   41% 34%     46% 37%       13% 28%

                                                    Easy as    Equally true   Extra effort          BUT still not enough
 Bought in          Equally true Prepared at
                                                                                                     brands hitting this
                                    home            possible
                                                                                                        sweet-spot
      Hope (Oct-19)              Reality (Jan-20)     Hope (Oct-19)    Reality (Jan-20)

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (2,009) Oct 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
13

Sensible
spending! I made
sure the kids had
a good time and
got worthwhile
gifts for others
14

Sensible spending
Back in Oct, shoppers told us what they expected to buy for Xmas 2020 – it
showed that kids’ gifts and big ticket would do well but adult gifting would suffer

October Year-on-year change in the % buying each category

  Big ticket for partner/older kids                                                                                         Gifts for adults                                                                                                           Gifts for younger kids
                                                                     0.8%
                          0.5%

                                                0.6%

                                                           0.7%

                                                                                    1.2%

                                                                                              1.6%

                                                                                                            1.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.4%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0.6%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1.1%
     -0.2%

                                                                                                                             -1.5%

                                                                                                                                          -1.4%

                                                                                                                                                               -0.9%

                                                                                                                                                                         -0.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                  -0.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                             -0.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -0.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -0.6%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -0.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -0.2%
                               Supported by expectations of big Black
                                         Friday discounts

                                                                                                                                        Cosmetics/toiletries

                                                                                                                                                                         Books
                                                           Phones

                                                                                                           Sound & vision

                                                                                                                                                                                 Motoring

                                                                                                                                                                                            Clothing

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Advent calendar
                        Household appliances

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Confectionery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Games/puzzles
                                                                    Wearable tech

                                                                                    Sports

                                                                                                                                                               Alcohol

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jewellery

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Toys
                                               Computing

                                                                                             In-car tech

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Perfume/aftershave

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Food
                                                                                                                            Homewares

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Novelty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Kids' bikes/scooters

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sleepwear
   Adult bike/scooter

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 2,009 (2019)
15

Sensible spending
We’ve now compared what shoppers actually bought against these earlier
predictions – and, reassuringly, there’s lots of overlap between the two!

           Buoyant

                                                                                                              Sound & vision
                                                                         In-car tech

                                                                                                                                                               Sports
                                                                                               Sleepwear              Wearable tech
                                                                                                                                Confectionery
         Y-o-Y                                                       Perfume/aftershave                       Food
                                                                                                                                           Computing
    predicting                                                                  Jewellery          Phones      Household appliances
    they would
                                                                           Gift
         buy in                                     Games/puzzles
                                                                        experiences           Adult bike/scooter                                   Toys
                                                                                                                                      Clothing
  Oct 19 vs. Oct 18                                                             Motoring
                                                    Novelty
          fieldwork                         Books
                                                                                                                                                 Kids' bikes
                                                                                               Garden
                                                                    Alcohol
                                                                                              products

                                                                                                                                                Cosmetics/toiletries
                                                                                                                               Homewares

         Squeezed

                                 Squeezed                      Y-o-Y change in % actually bought                                                                   Buoyant
                                                                              (Jan 20 vs. Jan 19 fieldwork)
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (2,009) Oct 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
16

Sensible spending
Overall it turned out to be a year where ‘sensible’ presents won – wellbeing,
sustainability and usefulness to the fore

     Squeezed (and we thought it would be)                                                          Did well (and we expected it to)

                                                                                                                               Wellbeing/
    Novelty – and
                                                                                                                               Sports
    novelty end of
    books and
                                                                    Food/                      Digital –    headphones
    games/puzzles                                                                              (noise cancelling), ear buds,
                                                                    Confectionery              Alexa, smart-home (battery
    As part of a broader
                                                                                               packs, wireless chargers),
                                                                    Perfect last-minute
    move towards
    sustainability
                             Alcohol                                gifts for the people
                                                                                               streaming devices etc.
                             Gin boom has                           you didn’t expect to
                             peaked and shift to                    see at Christmas       Wearable
                             wellbeing makes
                             booze feel wrong                                              tech (hot
                                                                                           present for over
                                                                                           50s)
                                                   Motoring
                                                   Fewer young
                                                   people
                                                                                 Family PJs, character
                                                   have/aspire to                clothing, Christmas clothing
                                                   own cars

Christmas Unwrapped Survey
17

Sensible spending
There were, however, a few exceptions where shoppers ended up spending
proportionately more or less on what they’d said they would back in October

           Buoyant

                                                                                                              Sound & vision
                                                                         In-car tech

                                                                                                                                                                Sports
                                                                                               Sleepwear              Wearable tech
                                                                                                                                Confectionery
         Y-o-Y                                                       Perfume/aftershave                       Food
                                                                                                                                           Computing
    predicting                                                          Jewellery                  Phones      Household appliances
    they would
                                                                           Gift
         buy in                                     Games/puzzles
                                                                        experiences           Adult bikes/scooters
                                                                                                                                      Clothing
                                                                                                                                                   Toys
  Oct 19 vs. Oct 18                                 Novelty
          fieldwork                                                            Motoring                                                           Kids' bikes
                                            Books
                                                                    Alcohol

                                                                                                                                                Cosmetics/toiletries
                                                                                                                               Homewares

         Squeezed

                                 Squeezed                     Y-o-Y change in % actually bought                                                                     Buoyant
                                                                              (Jan 20 vs. Jan 19 fieldwork)
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (2,009) Oct 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
18

Sensible spending
Three of the ‘better than expected’ categories are absolute Christmas favourites
which, when we’re short on time/imagination, are all too easy to revert to!

Jan ‘20: % Buying each category for Christmas 2019
 Gifts for younger kids                                                                                    Gifts for adults                                                                                                       Big ticket for partner/older kids

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4%
                                                         22%
    44%

               44%

                               29%

                                              25%

                                                                     11%

                                                                                      10%

                                                                                                            52%

                                                                                                                           41%

                                                                                                                                                38%

                                                                                                                                                            36%

                                                                                                                                                                               34%

                                                                                                                                                                                        29%

                                                                                                                                                                                                28%

                                                                                                                                                                                                            25%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    13%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               12%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Wearable tech
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sound & vision
                                                                                                           Clothing

                                                                                                                                                                               Books

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Motoring

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Phones
              Confectionery

                                                                                                                         Cosmetics/toiletries
                              Games/puzzles

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jewellery
   Toys

                                                                                                                                                Alcohol

                                                                                                                                                          Perfume/aftershave

                                                                                                                                                                                               Homewares

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sports

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Household
                                              Novelty

                                                                                                                                                                                        Food

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Computing

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              In-car tech
                                                        Sleepwear

                                                                    Game consoles

                                                                                    Kids' bikes/scooters

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Adult bike/scooter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 appliances
                                                                                                                       Did better than we                                               Did worse than we
                                                                                                                      predicted in Oct 2019                                            predicted in Oct 2019
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,857) Jan 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
19

Sensible spending
This sensible approach meant ‘safer’ high-investment gifts did well, while the
‘at home’ Christmas boosted the appeal of home-related presents

     Did worse than we thought they would                                                                                           Did better than we predicted

                     Jewellery       –                    Perfume – a slightly                                            Home – felt                  Clothing
                     similar to perfume a                 riskier purchase as the                                         increasingly                 – a Christmas
                     riskier purchase                     choice is bewildering and                                       good as a gift as            favourite
                     which got avoided                    carries a hefty price tag (plus                                 thoughts of an               made harder
                     as time ran out                      is associated with Dept                                         ‘at home’                    to resist by
                                                          Stores which are increasingly                                   Christmas grew               the huge
                                                          seen as old fashioned)            Bikes/scooters –                                           discounts in
                                                                                            electric scooters, as they                                 the lead-up
                                                                                            hit better price points,                                   to Christmas
                                                                                            would have caught the eye
                                                                                            of those looking for an on-
                                                                                            trend present
                                                                                                                          Toys – more children
                                                                                                                          bought for would naturally
                                                                                                                          translate into more toys     Cosmetics/
                                                                                                                          bought!
                                                                                                                                                       make-up –
                                        In-car technology –                                                                                            another Christmas
                                        simply lost out to other                                                                                       favourite and less
                                        forms of technology                                                                                            risky to buy than
                                                                                                                                                       perfume

Christmas Unwrapped Survey
20

Winning brands
offered a
compelling
message and
executed it well
(harder to deliver
than write down!)
21

 Compelling message well executed
 This is the full list of winning and losing brands – based on over 10,000
 interviews across four waves of research

 Year-on-year in % using each over the festive period                                            Winners

                                                                                                 Losers
 Grocery                                   Home             Fashion        Specialists
       M&S                                         IKEA         Primark         Smyths Toys
                                                               Boohoo              JD Sports
        Aldi                                    TKMaxx
                                                                   Next
  Amazon                                        Dunelm            H&M           Waterstones

         Lidl                                     Apple    River Island         Ernest Jones
                                                                   Zara            Decathlon
The Co-op                                      Amazon          Matalan
                                                                                Oliver Bonas
     Ocado                                      Matalan           ASOS
                                                                   M&S              Halfords
  Waitrose                                B&M Bargains
                                                             Very.co.uk         Sports Direct
Sainsbury's                               Home Bargains        TK Maxx
                                                                               Clinton Cards
      Tesco                                        Next      New Look
                                                            Sainsbury's           WHSmiths
 Morrisons                                   Sainsbury's   Debenhams      Tiger (Flying Tiger)
    Iceland                                       ASDA            Tesco
                                                                                      NOTHS
                                                               Amazon
      ASDA                                        Tesco                             Etsy.com
                                                                  ASDA

Source: Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,857) Jan 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
22

Compelling message well executed
Three features marked out winning brands across categories – a compelling ‘big
message’, aiming at a clear target, and strong delivery via the on-the-day experience

                       Families                                                 Families

                                                  Talks to a
                                                    clear
                                                   target

                                                                            Simple stores
                       Premium-                                                 where the
                       looking                                            products speak
                       products at    Provides             Translates   for themselves –
                       unbelievably     a clear              dream        with a fast, ‘on
                       low prices     reason to              into a       it’ service style
                                       believe               reality
23

Compelling message well executed
Whilst the ‘big message’ differed by winning brand, they’re all instantly
understood – and in line with their overall positioning

Amazing product   A fashionable            All your      We know ‘our    We’re a     We’re human –
at unbelievable   ‘home lift’ without      needs under   thing’ better   cut above   we genuinely
prices            breaking the bank        one roof      than anyone                 care about you!
                  (important in a year
                  where nesting was key)

                                                                              FOOD
24

Compelling message well executed
In contrast, the mid-market brands (like the Big 4 grocers) provide a much less
clear ‘reason to believe’ yet hold huge share others can nibble at!

   Grocery market share

                                                           Interesting place to shop
                                                          50%
                          Other
                                                          45%
                                         Tesco
                                                          40%
                   Lidl                                   35%
                                                          30%
                   Aldi                             67%   25%

                                         S’bury’s         20%
                     M’sons
                                  Asda

  Source: Kantar
  Worldpanel                                              Source: Christmas Unwrapped 2019 (base = 2,000)
25

2020 – ‘a time for
me to move
forward’ (less
about feeling rich
and more about
feeling good)
26

Time to move forward
Whilst 2019 was felt to be a tough year, over half the population expect 2020
to be worse – growing global issues adding to Brexit and wellbeing concerns

“The amount of bad news is only likely to
get worse”
                               +6%
                                                                      Top 6 worries: % concerned about each

                                                                                                                                   Wellbeing

                                                                       37%   45%   29%   36%    25%   31%      28%   31%     44%   46%    33%   31%

                                                                       Terrorism   Climate     World peace      Impact of   NHS funding Mental health
                                                                                   change                      leaving EU                  of UK

   4% 4%             9% 10%           42% 34%   30% 32%    16% 20%                                    Oct-19    Jan-20

  Disagree          Disagree          Neither    Agree      Agree
  Strongly          Slightly                    Slightly   Strongly
                                 Jan-19     Jan-20

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,857) Jan 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
27

Time to move forward
Significantly, however, after three years of uncertainty and with a new decade
upon us, the UK looks determined to take control and make things happen in 2020

We've been weighed down by uncertainty for 3 years,                    Average number of New Year’s resolutions
we just have to find a way to move on – Dec 19

                                                                                               Increased number of resolutions for 2020
                                                                 38%

                                                     27%
                                                           25%

                               6%
         3%

                                                                                                           3.8
                                                                       3.9
                                                                             4.3

                                                                                   4.5
                                                                                         4.0

                                                                                               3.9
                                                                                                     4.3

                                                                                                                 4.5

                                                                                                                       4.0
                                                                                                                             4.2

                                                                                                                                   3.7
                                                                                                                                         4.2

                                                                                                                                               4.4
                                                                                                                                                     4.7

                                                                                                                                                           3.3
                                                                                                                                                                 3.6
                                                                       Total       18-24       25-34       35-44       45-54        55+        Female      Male

                                                                                                            Jan-19       Jan-20

Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,988) Dec 2019 (1,857) Jan 2019 (1,507) Jan 2020
28

Time to move forward
It’s important to note that fewer are concerned about their finances – to the
average person most indicators look OK (even if economists think otherwise)

How financial position is expected to
change over next year                                                          Employment rate                                     FTSE 100
                                 +3%                                                                                        78                                            7500

                                                                                                                            76                                            7000

                                                                                                                                                                          6500
                                                                                                                            74
                                                                                                                                                                          6000
                                                                                                                            72
                                                                                                                                                                          5500
                                                                                                                            70                                            5000
                                                                               2010      2012      2014     2016    2018
                                                                                                                                  2010    2012    2014    2016    2018

                                                                               Food inflation                                      GDP*
                                                                                                                                                                          3
                                                                                                                            8
                                                                                                                                                                          2.5
                                                                                                                            6
                                                                                                                            4                                             2
                                                                                                                            2
                                                                                                                                                                          1.5
                                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                                                                          1
  6% 5%           15% 13%         41% 39%         28% 31%    11% 11%                                                        -2

                                                                                2010      2012       2014    2016    2018   -4     2010    2012    2014    2016    2018   0.5

Lot worse Little worse No change                    Little   Lot better
                                                    better
                                                                                                                                 * Any declines have taken place over a long
                             Jan-19         Jan-20                                                                               period so feel less dramatic to the average person

Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Jan 2019 ( 2,510) Jan 2020 (2,021)                    Office for National Statistics
29

Time to move forward
Instead, four emerging narratives are framing how we think about the
seemingly fast and dangerous way the world is changing around us…

4 major narratives emerging at the start of 2020

We’re                          I don’t know        I feel       The planet
leaving                        who to trust        overloaded   is a mess
30

Time to move forward
…and these feed directly into what consumers want their next few years to be
like – each presenting significant opportunities for brands who can respond

                       I don’t
We’re                  know who                             I feel          The planet
leaving                to trust                             overloaded      is a mess

                              I want to feel
                                on top of                                            I want to
                                 things                      I want to be
     I want                                                    a well me             be Green
       new
    horizons
                 I want to
                lose myself                     I want to
                                                   feel
                                               connected
Time to move forward
Naturally, not every consumer wants each of these things – these charts show
the proportion of the total population each plays to

Hope for lifestyle
                                   I want to feel on                                I want new                                      I want to be a
in 2020
                                     top of things                                    horizons                                         well me
                                                    42%                                             35%                                           57%

      5%          20%        32%     31%      11%             9%        25%   31%   27%       7%             3%         13%   27%    37%       20%

Spontaneous                                   Planned     Stick with                         Try new      Indulgent                           Healthy
                                                          familiar                            things

                                     I want to feel                                 I want to be                                    I want to lose
                                       connected                                       Green                                           myself
                                                    40%                                             48%                                              39%

      8%          19%        33%     27%      13%             4%        15%   33%   34%       14%            6%         19%   36%    27%       12%

Alone                                      With others    Quick fixes                     Sustainable     Want things                            Want
                                                                                                living                                     experiences

Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: (1,507) Jan 2020
32

The 6 wishes for
2020 and how
brands can help
33

I want to feel on top of things
The increasingly unpredictable, hectic nature of the world around us
leaves many feeling overwhelmed and wanting to regain control

Root causes                                                Which 5Driver is involved?
• Knowledge that Brexit will                                                 The rock on which
  bring changes                                                              everything else is
• Pace of change and blizzard                                                built i.e. we want
  of digital content piles on                                                to regain our
  continual cognitive                                                        equilibrium
                                                          Control
  load/makes us feel frazzled
                                                          Make my life run
• Unregulated social media                                smoothly

  means we don’t know what
  we should/shouldn’t believe
• Concerns about devices
  tracking us and listening to
  what we’re doing
• Awareness that algorithms
  control what we do/don’t see
• Glut of almost apocalyptic
  news stories e.g. Trump
  Tweets, US vs Iran tensions,
  Australian fires, Jeffrey Epstein

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
34

I want to feel on top of things
Brands win here by making things easier for us – this can come in many
forms and is often digital and data-enabled

You in control                              Hard stuff made easy            Curation                           Deliver to you                  Sort it for you

Monzo helps you track and                    GoCompare allows you to cut    Stitch Fix picks garments it       Echo Pharmacy (by Lloyds)       Twitter bans political
manage your finances                         through the falsehoods of      thinks you would like and          delivers repeat prescriptions   advertising to avoid ‘fake
                                             individual players             sends them to you                  free to your door               news’

Fitbit encourages you to                     City mapper takes the stress   Spotify creates perfectly          ASOS Premier gives you          Aldi provide compostable
monitor your exercise and                    out of travelling around big   edited playlists for a set price   unlimited next day delivery     rather than single-use carrier
sleep                                        cities                         per month                          for just £9.95                  bags

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
35

I want to be a well me
In this ever accelerating world, many of us feel overloaded and in need of
taking better care of ourselves

Root causes                                                Which 5Drivers are involved
• The rise of mental health                                                  To feel                      To fit in
  issues – high schooling                                                    secure                       whoever
  expectations, weaponised                                                   knowing                      you are
  social media, digital/cognitive                                            you’re
                                                                             well
  load
                                                          Control                       Belonging
• Growing evidence that                                   Make my life run              Make me feel
  looking after yourself                                  smoothly                      connected to
  physically is good for you e.g.                                                       others

  mental health, life expectancy,
  physical resilience                                                        To step                      To feel
                                                                             away                         energised/
• ‘Be yourself’ is an antidote to                                            from the                     capable of
  the artificial self we present                                             hurly-                       more
  via the selfie culture                                                     burly
                                                          Immersion                     Freedom
                                                          Make time fly by              Energise me by
                                                          absorbing me in               opening my eyes
                                                          your world                    to new things

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
36

I want to be a well me
Consumers will be drawn to brands that either help us accept
who we are and/or show us how to improve our wellbeing

Positivity                                  Support                          Clean living                    The long game                   Inclusivity

Dove self-esteem project                     Queer Eye – helps people        Apple sends weekly digital      Headspace app facilitates       Pure Gym promotes a gym
promotes wellbeing in young                  turn others’ lives around       consumption habits to           meditation to make you          environment where everyone
people                                                                       promote digital detoxing        healthier, happier and rested   can feel welcome

L'Oréal promotes ageless                     Revlon x Gurls Talk focuses     NOgroni – a non-alcoholic       Peloton puts fitness in your    Boohoo celebrates the fact
beauty                                       on key women’s issues,          twist on the classic cocktail   home as part of a long-term     that people come in many
                                             mental health, sex and social   Negroni                         commitment to healthy living    shapes and sizes
                                             media.
Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
37

I want to feel connected
It’s now understood that loneliness shortens lifespans – beyond this,
Belonging allows us to cope with the inevitable knocks in life

Root causes                                               Which 5Driver is involved
• Social media is only an illusion                                       To feel less
  of connection – in fact it can                                         vulnerable
  leave you feeling left                                                 To have others
  behind/isolated                                                        to help you
• More people living alone –                              Belonging      To feel more
  and the cost of living alone is                                        secure knowing
                                                          Make me feel   you’re not alone
  growing (i.e. it’s a grimmer                            connected to
                                                          others
  existence)
• Breakdown of previous
  community hubs like pubs,
  local sports teams, social care
  centres
• With a focus on ethnic
  diversity, older/white working
  class can feel an ignored
  demographic

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
38

I want to feel connected
Consumers will be drawn to brands who bring people together and
make us feel valued, at home and recognised

Community                                   Membership                      Down-to-earthness               Physical togetherness           Distractions

Local stores based around                    National Trust a way of        Greggs – very human tone of     Sofar offers gigs in intimate   Smartphones minimise
real community, with                         enjoying lovely places and     voice which speaks to           spaces, around the world, for   potentially awkward moments
founders at their heart                      being amongst similar people   everyone                        like-minded people              when you find yourself alone

Street markets and pop-ups                   Liverpool Football Club        TikTok offers a community       Extinction Rebellion brings     Airpods supply a soundtrack
are a naturally friendly forum               long-term bonds being          based on fun and authenticity   people together to campaign     to your life
where people mingle/chat                     enriched by Jürgen Klopp                                       for change

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
39

I want to be Green
We have reach a tipping point where consumers have a genuine
desire for more sustainable consumption habits

Root causes                                               Which 5Drivers are involved
• Overwhelming evidence that                                                 To stop our                     To feel part
  we are destroying our planet                                               world                           of
  and affecting our current                                                  feeling                         something
                                                                             under                           bigger;
  wellbeing e.g. floods in Britain,                                                                          trying to
                                                                             under
  fires in Australia etc.                                                                                    make the
                                                          Control            attack        Belonging
• High-profile crusaders alerting                                                                            world
                                                          Make my life run                 Make me feel      better
  the world and changing                                  smoothly                         connected to
  opinions – esp. Greta                                                                    others

  Thunberg                                                                   To be seen                      To crusade
• A vent for the anger of                                                    to do the                       for a better
                                                                             right                           future
  younger consumers at                                                       thing/
  Boomers’ excessive                                                         involved
  materialism/wealth                                                         with
                                                          Desire             something     Freedom
• The sense of feel-good from                             Excite me, give    important     Energise me by
  ‘doing your bit’ and                                    me a reason to                   opening my eyes
  ‘collectively making a                                  buy                              to new things

  difference’

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
40

I want to be Green
There will be a buzz around brands with green credentials as well as those
who can be trusted to guide us through a confusing subject matter

Recycle                                     Rent don’t buy                   Less packaging/plastic           Plant-based eating            Green transport

Batoko uses ocean waste to                   Library of things allows you    Waitrose offers the ability to   Huel provides all your        Nissan Leaf offers the most
make its brightly coloured                   to rent rather than buy stuff   refill your own packaging        nutrients in vegan-friendly   affordable electric car on the
swimsuits                                                                                                     shakes                        market

Nike’s reuse a trainer                       BlaBlaCar offers a place in     Guppyfriend washing bags         Burger King’s Impossible      Electric scooters as a quick
programme is now 26 years                    your car to others wanting to   stop microfibres from            Burger is a plant-based       and eco-friendly way to travel
old                                          go on the same journey          entering seas and rivers         alternative to the Whopper

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
41

I want new horizons
Once someone feels a sense of control, they will often look for new things,
beyond financial wellbeing, to achieve in life

Root causes                                               Which 5Driver is involved
• General Election put an end to
                                                                            To feel like
  three years of doubt and                                                  you’re
  inertia – and the scale of                                                moving
  Johnson’s win means either                                                forward to
  side of the debate now just                                               something
  wants to get on with things                             Freedom           better
                                                          Energise me by
• New Year’s resolutions doubly                           opening my eyes
  felt at the start of a new                              to new things
  decade i.e. line in the sand,
  new me
• Add to this the:
     • Long-term trends towards
       empowerment, equality
       and self-improvement
     • Fact that younger
       generations can’t aspire to
       the same goals their
       parents did e.g. property
       and consumption

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
42

I want new horizons
When looking for new horizons, we will be drawn to brands who support
and encourage us – or those that break the mould and show us new ways

New perspectives                            Dreams unlocked                   Transformation                 New ways forward                  New opportunities

Tedtalks allow you                           Rent the Runway provides         Nike Run Club with content     Mother Dirt helps fight           Culture trip allows you to get
unprecedented access to                      access to designer clothes       for everyone, from beginners   Eczema by using naturally         a local’s view of any
experts in very specific fields              you could never afford to buy    to club runners                produced (good) bacteria          destination you visit

Netflix features                             Patch helps you plan and buy     Make-believe and bold          Fiverr gives immediate access     Depop where creatives come
documentary-style content                    all the right plants for every   make-up set to become the      to freelancers offering digital   to buy, sell and discover the
for guilt-free binging!                      corner of your home              trend of 2020                  services the world over           most inspiring/unique things

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
43

I want to lose myself
‘Experiences over things’ has been the trend for some time – this is evolving
into the love of savouring moments and deep exploration of our interests

Root causes                                               Which 5Drivers are involved
• The way technology enables                                                  To get lost                  To feel
  you to follow niche interests                                               in your                      aligned
  e.g. YouTube                                                                passion                      with others
                                                                                                           who share
• The addictive nature of digital                                                                          your
  interactions draws you in                                                                                interests
  deeper                                                   Immersion                        Belonging
                                                           Make time fly by                 Make me feel
• With online satisfying ‘needs’,                          absorbing me in                  connected to
  the high street becomes more                             your world                       others

  about passions
• Physical immersion often puts
  you in contact with other
  people, and so fosters a
  feeling of Belonging
• Following a passion removes
  choice – as other options drop
  off the radar (which at a time
  of cognitive load feels good)

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
44

I want to lose myself
We’ll see experiential retailing continue to blossom – plus the rise of specialists
whose passion is infectious and attracts a tribe aligned around share values

Experiential retail                         Endless dialogue               Lots of back story             Specialism                       Events/festivals

Starbucks moving into                        YouTube where hours can be    Boutique by Shelter offers     Libraria bookshop offers talks   Not on the High Street
experiential stores where you                spent chasing your pursuit    gems creamed from Shelter's    by authors, screenings,          brings the digital alive via
see the whole process                                                      shops all over the UK          performances and workshops       popup events

Jo Malone makes purchases                    Podcasts where you feel ‘in   Glossier promises to make      Eggslut serves up egg-           Meccaland a three-day event
look so nice buyers rush to                  the audience’ with your       everything based on customer   focused dishes fast-food style   for beauty fans — the
post them on social media                    hero/subject matter expert    feedback                                                        Disneyland of makeup!

Source:
Desk research and Christmas Unwrapped verbatim comments
45

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