REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC
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www.pwc.com/za Reinforcing collective strength and stability South Africa – Major Banks Analysis PwC’s analysis of major banks’ results to 31 December 2010 March 2011
Table of Contents Overview 2 Combined results summary 4 Economic outlook 6 Net interest income 8 Non-interest income 9 Efficiency 10 Adapting to new realities in a post-crisis environment 12 Asset quality 14 Capital and funding 18 Key banking statistics – Annual 22 Key banking statistics – Semi 2010 23 Key banking statistics –Semi 2009 24 Industry statistics 26 Contact details 29 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 1
Overview Annual combined headline earnings up 12.9% Average return on equity 14.5% Bad debt expenses down 31.2% Core earnings down 2.2% Efficiency down 5.0% Bank results – Revenue growth is • Pressure on fee income, partly due overview challenging to less lending activity. South Africa’s big four banks’ or The revenue growth outlook is less All of these trends suggest that the major banks’ (Absa, FirstRand, rosy, and this points to the challenges pressure on bank revenues will Nedbank and Standard Bank) full- faced by the banks as they come continue. year results for the past year reinforce to grips with the new post-global once again the collective strength financial crisis (GFC) reality, referred Expenses rose 11.5% in 2010 and and profitability of the South African to by many as the ‘new normal’. There consequently, cost-to-income ratios banking system. Although there are at least five separate sources of came under pressure, rising to 58.6% were differences in the performances pressure on revenue for the banks, from 55.8% in 2009. All this means of the individual banks, combined evident from their results: that core earnings (earnings before headline earnings increased by 12.9% bad debt expenses) decreased by to R33.9bn on an annualised basis. • Margin pressure as historically low R1.7bn (2.2%). The average return on equity was interest rates are maintained. 14.5%, compared to 13.3% in 2009. No wonder then, that banks are The largest single contributing factor • Low growth in both demand and giving serious attention to cost to profit growth was the reduction in availability of credit given the control. All banks have stated that bad debt expenses (down R10.9bn strength of economic activity in cost control and efficiency remain or 31.2%) as lower interest rates general. among their top priorities for the helped reduce the inflow of new current year as they battle to get their non-performing loans and general • An increased cost of funding, efficiency ratios down to pre-2009 economic conditions improved. as banks’ funding profiles are levels. However, political turmoil lengthened; with no reprieve on and other inflationary pressures the cost of retail funding through will make this year tough going. But deposits. cost control is an imperative – and is one of the reasons why the banks’ • Subdued trading income, driven investment in technology to improve by continuing low transaction efficiency is essential as they seek to volumes and limited risk taking. reduce costs. 2 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
The regulatory environment continues The Minister 0f Finance surprised some to play an important role by saying, “I have met with the chief executives of our banks to take up this The banks are also having to cope with a period of unprecedented issue (bank charges, the complexity of the regulatory change, together with levels of political scrutiny not seen payment system) and I believe it is time before. Higher liquidity and capital requirements under Basel III will to put in place measures that will ensure inevitably increase funding costs and put further pressure on returns that banking charges are fairly set, are on equity. In South Africa’s case in particular, it has been widely transparent and do not create undue publicised that given the shortage of highly liquid instruments and hardship.” the structural imbalances in the economy, many banks will likely be unable to meet the new liquidity requirements. As such, it is a positive step that the banks, regulators and National Treasury are working Banks could have supposed that the In a deleveraging world, and with together to come up with the best new framework would be largely new capital and funding restrictions, possible solution for South Africa. similar to what they have been South African banks will need to be accustomed to, but for the mention more selective in finding new ways In addition to dealing with the of bank fees in the new framework. to connect with customers to drive requirements of Basel III, banks Most banks rely increasingly on non- revenue and profitable growth. will have to contend with the new interest income (fees) to bolster their Large investments in technology to ‘Twin Peaks’ approach to financial revenue lines and any regulatory improve efficiency are clearly one regulation as announced by the changes on this front would be a vehicle for this – and indeed the Minister of Finance in the recent severe blow. depth of customer information that Budget Speech. Under the revised will be available in a technologically– regulatory framework, the South Given the regulatory uncertainty, it is enabled banking system will enable African Reserve Bank (SARB) not surprising to see capital adequacy extraordinary precision in both will be given lead responsibility ratios creeping upwards, with the marketing and credit assessment. The for prudential regulation and the average for Tier 1 now at 12.8% banks are pushing the mobile handset Financial Services Board (FSB) for (2009: 12.4%), which is well north of revolution for the same reasons as consumer protection. As part of this the minimum required. Most banks this is seen as a potentially high redistribution of responsibility, the are cautious when dealing with the growth area that does not require mandate of the FSB will be expanded question of what will happen to their significant infrastructure investment, to include the market conduct of excess capital. This is likely to remain given that the target market was retail banking services, including an issue until there is more clarity on previously unbanked. In addition, developing principles for how banks what the new rules will be. the big four banks are increasing should set their fees, how these their focus on the lower income fees should be reported and what sectors as the battle for market share constitutes fair behaviour. Within the Looking ahead intensifies, given the importance of FSB, a retail banking services market growth in this sector. conduct regulator will be established. South Africa has been fortunate in This new regulator will focus on that our banks avoided much of the In the pursuit of growth, offshore structural market issues and banking fallout from the GFC experienced expansion into Africa remains very fees and will work closely with the by banks elsewhere. However, our much in play, with each bank taking National Credit Regulator, which has consumers and households were a different approach. Suffice to say, a complementary role in regulating similarly over-leveraged and as history has shown that this is an the extension of credit. The SARB’s this slowly returns to normal, they area where a precise understanding mandate for financial stability will are looking to be more cautious in of the chosen market - in contrast be underpinned by a new Financial relation to debt; which was a steady to ubiquity of scope and reach - is Stability Oversight Committee, co- source of both revenue and profit fundamentally important. chaired by the Governor of the SARB growth for the banks over the past and the Minister of Finance. two decades. Increased demand for commercial and corporate borrowing may help offset this. South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 3
Combined results summary Combined annual results Rm 2010 2009 2010 v 2009 2H10 1H10 2H10 v 1H10 Net interest income 85,279 82,341 3.57% 43,338 41,941 3.33% Non interest income 105,322 97,951 7.53% 54,787 50,535 8.41% Total operating income 190,601 180,292 5.72% 98,125 92,476 6.11% Total operating expenses -116,468 -104,467 11.49% -61,550 -54,918 12.08% Core earnings 74,133 75,825 -2.23% 36,575 37,558 -2.62% Impairment charge -24,262 -35,254 -31.18% -11,063 -13,199 -16.18% Other income/(expenses) 1,206 1,600 -24.63% 618 588 5.10% Income tax expenses -13,517 -10,706 26.26% -7,155 -6,362 12.46% Profit for the period 37,560 31,465 19.37% 18,975 18,585 2.10% Attributable earnings 40,697 29,435 38.26% 23,884 16,813 42.06% Headline earnings 33,914 30,029 12.94% 17,070 16,844 1.34% Return on equity 14.5% 13.3% 14.8% 14.3% Return on average assets 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% This analysis presents the combined trading counterparties, and shares FirstRand in particular had a results of the major banks in South owned by policyholder funds. significant headline earnings Africa (Absa, FirstRand, Nedbank and adjustment in the last six months of Standard Bank). Investec, the other A number of banks refer to these 2010 as it concluded the unbundling major player in the South African adjustments as ‘normalised’ of Momentum to MMI Holdings market, has not been included in adjustments. We have used these shareholders. This impacts the this comparison due to its unique normalised results in our analysis in comparability of numbers as the business mix, different reporting this document. comparative earnings of Momentum, currency and period. in accordance with IFRS 5, are Headline earnings is a way of excluded from the amounts presented The results of the banks analysed dividing the IFRS-reported profit and disclosed as assets held for sale. contain a number of complexities between re-measurements that are that require explanation. In order to more closely aligned to the operating present information that reflects the and trading activities of the entity, underlying trends and performance and the platform used to create those of their businesses going forward, the results. banks seek to eliminate once-off or non-recurring items in order to assess For South African banks this gives their performance in the course of rise to a number of adjustments, normal operations. This includes the including the removal of gains and reinstatement of gains and/or losses losses relating to hedge contracts on the banks own shares held by that do not meet the requirements group entities that are not permitted of International Accounting to be recognised under International Standard 39 for hedge accounting Financial Reporting Standards or are not fully effective, permanent (IFRSs) (known as Treasury shares) impairments of equity investments which result from hedged share and goodwill, and gains or losses remuneration schemes, own shares on transactions outside the normal purchased to hedge derivative course of business such as disposals transactions entered into with of business investments. 4 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Combined results of six month periods Combined results Comparative movement Rm 2H10 1H10 2H09 1H09 2H 1H Net interest income 43,338 41,941 42,411 39,930 2.2% 5.0% Non-interest income 54,787 50,535 52,611 45,340 4.1% 11.5% Total operating income 98,125 92,476 95,022 85,270 3.3% 8.5% Total operating expenses -61,550 -54,918 -55,023 -49,444 11.9% 11.1% Core earnings 36,575 37,558 39,999 35,826 -8.6% 4.8% Impairment charge -11,063 -13,199 -15,539 -19,715 -28.8% -33.1% Other income 618 588 176 1,424 251.1% -58.7% Income tax expenses -7,155 -6,362 -6,472 -4,234 10.6% 50.3% Profit for the period 18,975 18,585 18,164 13,301 4.5% 39.7% Attributable earnings 23,884 16,813 16,293 13,142 46.6% 27.9% Headline earnings 17,070 16,844 16,750 13,279 1.9% 26.8% Return on equity 14.8% 14.3% 14.8% 12.0% -0.4% 19.3% Return on average assets 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 8.3% 28.2% South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 5
Economic outlook By Dr Roelof Botha The global economy entered 2011 GDP growth forecasts for 2011 for selected high-income countries and with the knowledge that the recovery emerging markets had gained substantial momentum during the second half of the High-income countries (%) Emerging Markets (%) previous year. Sweden 4.2 China 8.9 Australia 3.3 India 8.6 Within five quarters of the official US 3.0 Chile 5.9 end of the recession, annualised real economic growth surged to above Germany 2.4 Brazil 4.5 or close to its long-term potential in UK 1.9 Turkey 4.5 several high-income countries and France 1.5 Singapore 4.1 emerging markets. Japan 1.4 Russia 4.0 Spain 0.4 South Korea 3.9 Although it is evident that a number of European countries may require Ireland -1.1 South Africa 3.7 fiscal discipline for at least two to Greece -4.1 Mexico 3.0 three fiscal cycles (including Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain), the European Union’s initial bridging Sources: Economist poll, national budgets facility of €750bn has already provided hope for a relatively swift return to financial soundness for the Eurozone as a whole. Economy poised for higher growth Global recovery well- despite some obstacles entrenched Further proof of the sustainability Welcome recovery of The SARB even expressed its concern of the global economic recovery credit extension at the slow rate of recovery of the from the short but sharp recession economy in a recent policy statement, comes from the news of a return to specifically singling out the “strict formal sector job creation in most The stubbornness of credit extension lending criteria” applied by banks economies (including the US). in responding to the return to positive as a constraint on the growth of real GDP growth (which occurred as household consumption expenditure. The World Bank estimates global early as the third quarter of 2009), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) clearly defeated the objective of Growth in credit extension by to have increased by 3.9% in monetary policy during 2010. The banks started slowing in 2007 and 2010, whilst authoritative global most accommodating monetary continued decelerating until it macroeconomic forecasting agencies policy in almost four decades was reached negative territory in 2009. are forecasting healthy growth rates called into being by the lethargy of The stagnation in loan activity by for virtually all of the emerging money supply growth and private financial institutions was consistent markets and the largest high-income sector credit extension over the past with the fairly dramatic decline in countries. two years. money supply growth during 2009. 6 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Recovery of private sector credit extention (percentage annualised growth) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source – SARB According to the SARB, the Growth drivers • The lowest money market interest continuation of subdued money rates in almost four decades market activity during the first half of Since the second half of 2010, the 2010 was related, inter alia, to a low equity market has also witnessed • An upward trend in commodity inflationary environment, relatively higher levels of activity, with its value prices (particularly metals, low returns on money market of market capitalisation growing at minerals and oil) deposits and impaired balance sheets healthy rates. This growth reflects in both the corporate and household the impact of lower bond yields, • A continuation of the recovery of sectors. lower money market rates, higher inventory levels profit expectations and progress in A welcome return to positive growth reducing the government’s budget • Continued progress with in credit extension by the banking deficit. government infrastructure sector was made in the second programmes quarter of 2010, although the rate Prospects for a swift return to the pre- of expansion has remained rather recession economic growth trajectory • An expansionary fiscal policy muted. All types of bank loans began of above 4% have been buoyed by stance, particularly in terms of job recording positive growth during the the presence of a number of rather creation initiatives third quarter of 2010. impressive macroeconomic growth drivers, including the following: • A return to formal sector employment creation • Prospects for relatively low inflation during 2011 Against these positives, however, the potential impact of higher oil • A return to healthy real growth and commodity prices fuelled by the rates for household disposable political turmoil in the Middle East incomes should be considered. South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 7
Net interest income Combined results 2H10 1H10 2H09 1H09 Gross loans and acceptances (Rm) 2,215,547 2,205,122 2,179,754 2,179,665 Net interest margin (% of average interest 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% bearing assets) Net interest income Rm % 800,000 4.5% 700,000 4.0% 600,000 3.5% 3.0% 500,000 2.5% 400,000 2.0% 300,000 1.5% 200,000 1.0% 100,000 0.5% - 0.0% 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 ASA FSR NED SBK Gross loans and acceptances Net interest margin (% of average interest earning assets) Source – PwC Analysis Net interest income remains a • Deposit re-pricing – To attract • Credit impairment – A significant principal revenue driver for the major funds from both new customers reduction in credit impairment as local banks, contributing on average and to extend the term of the a result of the relief afforded to 46.6% of their total annual income. funding profile, banks continue to consumers by lower interest rates Although the total interest earned pay increased rates on deposits. improves their ability to repay has increased to R43.3bn from debt. This is evidenced by lower R41.9bn in 2H10, and to R85.3bn • Limited asset growth – Loans levels of interest in suspense. from R82.3bn for the full year, net advanced have started to increase margins continued to be impacted again but growth remains subdued • Retail deposits – Relatively higher negatively by the significant drop and below the levels experienced deposit volumes of traditionally in the repo rate and the resulting prior to the GFC. cheaper retail deposits. endowment effect as well as increased funding costs. The net There has, however, been some relief • Hedging activities – Some banks interest contribution to total income on bank margins, as a result of: have successfully protected before impairments decreased to margins by hedging portions of 46.2% for 2H10, from 47% in 1H10. • Asset re-pricing – Re-pricing the endowment impact, but there related to credit risk provided is a concern that as rates start to Contributing factors to decreasing some relief for bank margins. increase this may slow the net bank interest margins are: However, by now much of this interest income they are able asset re-pricing activity should to produce as their hedges turn • Endowment effect – Decreasing have been completed and its against them. interest rates have a significant impact fully reflected in interest impact on bank earnings as the income. interest received on assets does not fully compensate for the increased costs associated with deposits and longer term funding. 8 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Non-interest income Increased reliance on Of particular interest is the strong significantly impacted earnings. growth in electronic banking fees, Competition for derivative flows in non-interest income generally considered to be a cheaper emerging markets remains intense, alternative to other transaction and has increased as international Non-interest income for 2H10 was up channels. The continued migration banks seek to grow in emerging 8.4% on 1H10 and 4.1% up on 2H09. of customers to electronic banking markets, resulting in a compression It now represents 53.8% of total channels could significantly impact of margins. Equity markets have income, up from 53.0% in 1H10. This the net fee and commission income however been buoyant as fears over demonstrates the increased reliance earned in future periods. the GFC abated. of banks on non-interest income as a source of earnings. Fair value income Insurance and Bancassurance income Net fee and air value income decreased by 1.9% commission income on 1H10 and by 12.5% on 2H09. Insurance and Bancassurance Proprietary trading and customer income increased by 64.7% in 2H10 Net fee and commission income demand for Interest Rate and Foreign against 1H10 and by 19.1% on 2H09, increased by 9.0% on 1H10 and Exchange risk management products albeit from a relatively low base. increased by 5.8% on 2H09. This remained relatively low. Uncertainty This dramatic increase is primarily growth is largely attributable to regarding the market direction, attributable to strong premium transactional volume growth, especially following the sovereign growth as a result of stronger cross- coupled with inflationary increases debt crisis in Europe in 1H10, selling and the launch of more offset by lower knowledge-based fees innovative products. Increased on the back of reduced deal flow in investment returns following the Investment Banking. recovery of the global financial markets have also significantly contributed to this growth. Non-interest income Rm 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0- 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 -10,000 Net f ee and commission income Fair value income Insurance & Bancassurance income Other income Source – PwC Analysis South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 9
Efficiency Combined results 2H10 1H10 2H09 1H09 Cost-to-income ratio 59.9% 57.1% 55.7% 56.1% Compared to the prior period, banks’ FY10 – Operating expenditure operating expenses increased by 12.1 % while total operating income Total staf f costs increased by 6.1%. Consequently the banks’ combined cost-to-income ratio deteriorated from 57.1% in 41% Inf ormation Technology 1H10 to 59.9% in 2H10. The banks 47% have continued to place significant Depreciation, emphasis on tightly managing their amortisation and expense base. Given the subdued impairments growth in total operating income, 5% Other 7% these cost containment strategies have paid dividends and limited the - Source – PwC Analysis impact on the cost-to-income ratio. All of the banks have stated at their results presentations that this will FY09 – Operating expenditure remain a strategic priority in 2011. Total staf f costs Of particular interest is the continued significant investment made in information technology, from an 40% Inf ormation Technology 47% already high base in prior periods. The banks have cited several reasons Depreciation, for this: amortisation and impairments • There has been ongoing upward 6% Other 7% pressure on banking technology costs in terms of security, business Source - – PwC Analysis continuity, and recoverability. The complexity and threats in these areas have risen exponentially in recent years, alongside the cost of most recent year banks have made Staff costs, which represented 47% staying ahead of the game. investments to replace or enhance of total expenses, continue to grow at core banking systems both levels well above inflation, reflecting • The importance of technology locally and abroad. Changes in an 11.8% increase in 2010 from to the banks’ operations has regulatory and risk requirements 2009. As a result, staff costs are the been on a long-term upward have also necessitated, and will subject of more and more discussion trend. While this has generated continue to necessitate, various in boardrooms. Banks have begun to efficiencies in many areas, it has system enhancements as banks respond to external pressures on staff also consequentially increased require access to more historic and costs by increasing amounts paid in technology costs. detailed data on a more regular shares and extending vesting periods. basis. • Most importantly of all in the 10 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Operating expenses were also Banks will continue to place favourably impacted by the strong considerable focus on reducing their Rand during the period. The average cost base over the next few years. USD/ZAR rate strengthened from Because we expect that margins will 8.42 in 2009 to 7.32 in 2010. As remain compressed, and beyond South African banks continue 2011 lending volumes may improve to expand into Africa and other only modestly, we expect that cost emerging markets, currency management will rise further in fluctuations are having a more terms of relative importance and pronounced impact on earnings. may well be a distinguishing factor between the relative performances of the banks. South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 11
Adapting to new realities in a post-crisis environment Confidence is back – this is the banking and capital markets CEOs reported that their single best overwhelming message from CEOs are clearly in this camp. 61% think opportunity for growth lay in better in PwC’s 14th Annual Global CEO that emerging markets will be more penetration of their existing markets. survey released in the first quarter important to their organisation’s Now they are just as likely to focus of this year. More specifically, CEOs future than developed markets. on the innovation needed for new are nearly as confident of growth However, success will be hard won products and services. this coming year, as they have ever as emerging economies respond to been in the history of our survey. international interest. For example, We believe that changing customer Realising growth aspirations will not interest in the African continent behaviour and accessible banking be easy; however, as companies will from international players has not are two of the key drivers that will have to respond to new challenges been lost on African CEOs: 28% have fundamentally influence the business in the post-crisis environment. PwC changed their strategy because of models of South African banks. explored some of these new realities competitive threats, compared to a and the mega trends that will affect global average of 10%. South African banks the Global and South African banking industry in a study called Project Responding to Blue. Many believe the previously changing customer unbanked market represents a Top-line growth main requirements significant opportunity for revenue growth in South Africa. To date this concern for South More CEOs are responding to the market has largely been serviced by African banks rise of middle-class consumers in Tier 2 banks, with limited inroads emerging economies by developing being made by the bigger banks. As mentioned earlier, South African products and services tailored to However, these large banks have now banks are struggling to grow top-line those high-growth markets, while started to tailor their service offerings revenue as consumers are reluctant also looking to serve the changing to enable them to provide banking to borrow due to over-indebtedness, needs of more mature markets. services to the mass market. Inability inflation fears and anticipated Our CEO Survey reveals that CEOs to do so will result in a loss of market interest rate increases. As a result, are placing a higher premium on share and stagnating revenue growth many believe South African banks innovation today. Since 2007, over the long term. will have to tap into the rapidly business leaders have consistently increasing emerging-to-emerging market trade flows if they want to realise their growth aspirations. It “In the same way, for the younger people is therefore not surprising to see the banks focusing their attention on who went through this recession, it will expansion into Africa to capture these trade flows. forever have an impact on the way they This is supported by our economic behave, the way they incur debt, the way forecast, which suggests that the GDP of E7 emerging economies could be they spend, the way they save. It will be a bigger than that of the G7 economies by 2020, and that China may permanent change” overtake the US before the end of the decade. Many Western banks are – Richard K. Davis, looking to offset slow growth in their home markets by strengthening their President and CEO of U.S. Bancorp presence in South America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Most of the 12 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
It is notable that 87% percent of global banking and capital market CEOs believe that innovations will “We expect that governments will not lead to operational efficiencies and provide them with a competitive only be looking to the private sector advantage. 64% also believe that their IT investments will help for the provision of capital, but for them tap into new marketing and transactional opportunities such as increasing the delivery of a whole mobile devices and social media. With more than 40 million mobile range of social services. For example, devices in operation in South Africa, this is clearly a distribution channel in the UK the government is looking at that will be explored further by South African banks as they penetrate the different ways to provide services from mass market. the private sector in terms of meeting the Growth opportunities, especially in emerging government’s objectives.” markets, prompt Nicholas Moore, changes to talent CEO of the Macquarie Group strategies As they look to expand globally, CEOs a concern for global CEOs. For respond to opportunities quickly. recognise that they require a more South African banks, changes to diverse workforce, including more Basel III, particularly the proposed Political interference in banking is women and different geographic new liquidity requirements, could much less common in South Africa, leaders as they look to expand fundamentally change the business given that none of its banks had to be globally. Filling the skills gaps in models of the banks and may bailed out. However, there has been emerging markets begins with banks negatively impact on banks’ ability to ongoing support by the South African making themselves more attractive grow. However, it is the positive step government for community banks to potential and current employees; that the National Treasury is leading and the Postbank to ensure access to as well as looking for better ways to a task force investigating how best to banking services for the unbanked develop and deploy staff globally. deal with the challenges of Basel III. market. Although the debate around Becoming the employer of choice nationalisation currently focuses is a vital advantage in dynamic The majority of global on mines, banks have also been markets where top talent has the pick mentioned in this context not too of jobs from domestic and foreign banking CEOs regard long ago. All of these factors could employers. political instability as profoundly change the South African the most significant banking environment in future. We have noted in Project Blue that South African banks will have to global risk It is clear that South African banks reconsider the remuneration policies will have to contend with a number and development opportunities they Western banks will need to adjust of new realities if they wish to offer in order to attract and retain key to governments exerting greater remain relevant in the post-crisis talent. The role that organisational control over their activities and the environment. The most successful culture plays in talent retention real economy. In developed markets, banks are likely to be those which can should also not be underestimated. the crisis necessitated a rapid respond to the opportunities, while increase in state intervention and, in at the same time making the most of Overregulation many people’s eyes, has legitimised their principal competitive strengths. ongoing intervention. Project Blue This will accelerate the move towards continues to rank highlights the rise of state-directed precision as banks become ever amongst the top 3 capitalism as one of the mega trends more ruthless in the defence and risks on CEOs’ minds that will have an impact on banking optimisation of their core franchises. globally. Western banks’ ability to As one CEO put it, the bank that can respond to opportunities in emerging implement its strategy in the most Nearly three quarters of CEOs told markets will largely depend on the efficient way will be the winner. us they would actively support new risk appetite of governments of government policies that promote the jurisdictions from which they growth that is economically, socially operate. This creates opportunities and environmentally sustainable. for emerging market banks to capture However, overregulation remains market share if they are able to South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 13
Asset quality Rm % 2,400,000 6.0 5.0 2,350,000 4.0 2,300,000 3.0 2.0 2,250,000 1.0 2,200,000 0 - 1.0 2,150,000 - 2.0 2,100,000 - 3.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 Loans and advances (LHS) Loans and advances – year-on-year growth (RHS) Source – SARB (all banks) Levels of gross Total non-performing advances loans (NPLs) Given the subdued global sentiment An analysis of NPLs as a percentage and the strained economic of gross advances at 2H10 follows: environment in 2010, it is not surprising that there was limited Growth NPLs/Advances overall growth in advances for the in NPL (%) full year 2010. advances (%) The growth in total advances across 2010 2009 the Corporate and Retail sectors for Personal and Business Banking/ -1.2% 7.5% 7.9% 2010 was 2.2%. Retail Mortgage loans -1.5% 9.4% 9.7% Total advances as at 2H10 increased Instalment sale and finance leases 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% to R2.2tn compared to R2.1tn as at 2H09. This increase was made up Card debtors -6.9% 8.8% 9.5% of an increase in total advances of Other loans and advances -4.2% 3.7% 4.6% approximately 5.1% in the Retail Corporate and Investment Banking -1.4% 3.0% 3.0% sector (total retail advances as at Corporate lending -0.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2H10 amounted to R1.4tn compared Commercial property finance 1.7% 3.0% 3.1% to R1.3tn as at 2H09), a 0.3% marginal decrease in the Corporate Banking sector, and a decrease in the Central and Other -130.7% 0.3% 2.5% ‘Other’ advances category amounting to R18bn during the year. Total -1.3% 5.9% 6.1% 14 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
The High Court stated in its judgement that “to allow a credit provider to unilaterally terminate the consumer’s protection at the precise moment when he or she may need it the most can only be construed as absurd. It would be like providing the consumer with an umbrella and then snatching it back the moment it starts raining.” Although the levels of inflows into within banks. Given the volumes of the Western Cape High Court ruled the early arrears categories seem to loans designated as NPLs, banks will that a credit provider could not have decreased, the level of NPLs in need to reassess their expectations terminate the debt review process the banks’ balance sheets remains of when these properties will be where an application for a debt re- sticky with a marginal decrease in recovered. This may have an impact arrangement had been lodged by the NPL levels across the banks. Total on the timing of these recoveries and debt counsellor with the magistrate NPLs amounted to R130bn, around ultimately Loss Given Default (LGD) court and was still pending. The High 5.9% of total gross advances (R2.2tn) assumptions used in estimating Court judgement demonstrated that in 2H10 (compared to a ratio of 6.2% mortgage book impairments. if consumers and debt counsellors in 2H09). The marginal decrease in fulfilled their duties by submitting NPL levels was made up of growth The numbers of debt counselling an application for debt review to the in ABSA’s NPL book by 9.8%, offset clients in the non-performing magistrate’s court within 60 days by decreases in the NPL books of categories seem to have reached of receiving such application, the the other banks (Nedbank’s and a peak in 2010. We saw inflows credit provider could not unilaterally FirstRand’s NPL books decreased into the debt counselling process terminate the debt review process. by 1% and 8.7% respectively, and starting to show a more stable trend Standard Banks’ decreased by in 2H10. During 2010, banks across The High Court stated in its 11.7%). the industry placed an emphasis judgement that “to allow a credit on terminating clients that had not provider to unilaterally terminate the The high NPL levels are as a result of stuck to their debt counselling terms. consumer’s protection at the precise the large number of client accounts The incentive for banks to terminate moment when he or she may need that were previously in arrears, which clients and place them back into it the most can only be construed as are now working their way through the legal recovery process is that absurd. It would be like providing the the banks’ legal departments. The recoveries are made sooner by this consumer with an umbrella and then combined level of NPLs now stands means, which positively impacts snatching it back the moment it starts at R76bn for the Mortgage Portfolio’s impairments. raining.” The High Court implied alone. The number and value of that a typical debt review often takes loans subject to legal remedy will no The manner in which banks longer than 60 business days before it doubt increase the workloads of the terminate clients was recently called results in an order by the magistrate’s collections, legal and recovery teams into question, where a full bench in court. Rm % 50,000 40 45,000 35 40,000 30 35,000 30,000 25 25,000 20 20,000 15 15,000 10 10,000 5,000 5 0 0 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 ASA FSR NED SBK NPLs (LHS) Specif ic impairment of NPLs (RHS) Source – PwC Analysis South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 15
“A year-on-year increase of 24.8% (from 206 to 257) in company liquidations was recorded for January 2011 compared with January 2010”. – Statistics SA The press suggests that the National Retail vehicle and asset finance some success in realising outstanding Credit Regulator has a large backlog categories for financial reporting balances. Our industry experience of unresolved cases due to capacity purposes, whilst other banks include shows that post-write-off recoveries constraints in the court system. the Business and Corporate vehicle in the current year have been more This is not good news for banks as asset finance business under their favourable across this portfolio an extension of this process means Corporate operations. This means compared to previous years and higher LGD percentages as a result of that direct comparisons of key Retail would most likely taper off in the potentially lower recovery rates in the vehicle and asset portfolio ratios is future. future. not always possible. Analysis of gross How banks resolve the current levels Notwithstanding the above, it of NPLs and those NPLs in the debt appears that vehicle and asset advances and non- review process needs to be monitored finance advance growth was performing loans in in 2011. approximately 1.8% for the year the wholesale portfolio since 2H09, with most of the growth Analysis of gross coming from retail advances as car sales increased in 2H10. NPLs as a Corporate advances decreased advances and non- percentage of advances are close to slightly by 0.3% for the year since performing loans in 5.5% and have increased slightly 2H09. the mortgage loan in 2H10 compared to 2H09, when they were 5.3%. Coverage ratios NPLs as a percentage of advances portfolio have generally increased as the were 3.0% for 2H10 and were at average age of the accounts with NPL similar levels for 2H09. The implied Mortgage loan advance growth has status has increased. The implied LGD rate increased to approximately been 2.2% for the year since 2009. LGD decreased to approximately 40.3% across all of the banks (from 46.5% across all of the banks (from approximately 26.4% for 2H09). NPL as a percentage of advances is approximately 48.8% during 2H09). 9.4% and has decreased slightly for A review of the latest liquidation 2H10 compared to 2H09, when it was Analysis of gross numbers shows that Corporate 9.7%. Coverage ratios have increased clients may not be out of the woods as the average age of accounts advances and non- yet. More companies closed their with NPL status has increased. The performing loans in doors in January this year compared implied LGD (calculated by dividing the card portfolio to the same month in 2010, Statistics the specific impairment amounts by SA said recently. “A year-on-year the NPL book) remained relatively increase of 24.8% (from 206 to consistent at 18.6% across all banks, Card advances growth has been 0.1% 257) in company liquidations was compared to approximately 18.5% as for the year since 2H09. recorded for January 2011 compared at 2H09. with January 2010”. Over the NPLs as a percentage of card same period, closed corporation Analysis of gross advances are 8.8% and have liquidations rose from 110 to 143, decreased slightly for 2H10 compared and company liquidations increased advances and non- to 2H09, when they were 9.5%. from 96 to 114. performing loans in Coverage ratios have increased as the vehicle and asset the average age of accounts with NPL status has increased. The implied finance portfolio LGD decreased to approximately 75.6% across all of the banks (from Certain South African banks include approximately 77.7% as at 2H09). their Corporate or Business vehicle The improvement in LGDs in this asset finance books within the portfolio implies that banks have had 16 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Total income The levels of income statement Total coverage ratios statement impairment impairment seem to have reached its highs in 2009 and are now starting The coverage ratios (calculated as charge ratio to decline, albeit at a much slower specific impairment divided by NPL (impairments to the rate than many had anticipated. book) across all products decreased income statement The low interest rate environment slightly during the year. This trend coupled with relatively strong salary is not surprising given that the divided by average increases left consumers with more average age of loans included in advances) disposable income in 2010, which the NPL category has not decreased resulted in fewer inflows into the substantially. The total income statement arrears categories. As noted earlier, impairment charge across the external inflationary pressure and The average NPL coverage ratios major banks was R24.3bn for 2010 rises in interest rates will have a across certain products were as compared to R35.3bn for 2009. negative impact which may possibly follows: There is therefore a noticeable result in new NPL volumes increasing improvement in the impairment over time. • Mortgage loans – 18.6% credit charge ratio, which varied (FirstRand was the highest at from 0.9% to 1.4% for 2010. This 19.64% and Standard Bank the varied from 1.3% to 1.7% in 2009. lowest at 17.43%). • Instalment sales business – 46.5% (Standard Bank was the highest at 57.91% and FirstRand the lowest at 41.19%). • Cards – 75.6% (Nedbank was the highest at 96.53% and Standard Bank the lowest at 67.16%). % 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 ASA FSR NED SBK Specif ic impairment % Portf olio impairment % Source – PwC Analysis South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 17
Capital and funding Basel III – a significant Deposits Capital concern for banks Optimising the mix of the deposit The individual Capital Adequacy book remains a key focus in reducing Ratios (‘CAR’) for the major banks One of the main issues that has been the high cost of wholesale and longer continued to improve in 2H10. The preoccupying many banks is the term funding. This is critical as average CAR increased from 15.2% impact of Basel III and other local banks compete more aggressively for to 15.3% over the comparable period, regulatory changes to the capital lower-cost deposit pools with longer reinforcing the upward trend on structure of South African banks. The behavioural duration and as they higher capital ratios. Slightly more banks’ conservative approach has set start to work towards the potential pronounced, however, is the rise in them up well to face the challenges Basel III liquidity ratios. Tier 1 capital where the combined of compliance with the new rules. average ratio increased from 12.5% However, their dependence on Low interest rates, coupled with to 12.8%. short-term wholesale funding and low domestic savings levels and the the limited supply of South African deleveraging of consumers, led to government securities will make modest growth in retail deposits compliance with the liquidity rules during 2010. As noted above, the more challenging. increased competition and duration negatively impacted on net interest This latter challenge is well margins earned during 2H10. recognised, to the extent that the Basel Committee is now developing a separate standard for jurisdictions which do not have sufficient high quality government securities available. Rm % 2,500,000 50 45 2,000,000 40 35 1,500,000 30 25 1,000,000 20 15 500,000 10 5 - 0 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Government Wholesale Corporate Retail Other % Government % Wholesale % Corporate % Retail % Other Source – SARB 18 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Fundamental to the Basel III rules • A ‘counter-cyclical buffer’ ranging As well as these requirements for are the requirements for the banks to from 0 – 2.5% of common equity, common equity, the banks are also hold more capital of higher quality. In determined by SARB as required, required to hold Tier 1 capital to a particular: for instance in times of excessive minimum of 8.5% (i.e. including credit growth. the conservation buffer, of which • All banks must hold a minimum at least 7% is common equity) and common equity (common The result of all these measures is total capital (i.e. Tier 1 and Tier 2) shares and retained earnings that the new common equity (core of at least 10.5%. In South Africa, less deductions, some of which Tier 1) ratio will be at least 7%. In additional capital requirements were previously taken against addition, the banks will want to hold could push the total minimum capital lower forms of capital) of 4.5% their own internal buffer, over and requirement to 12% due to the Pillar of risk weighted assets, which above this regulatory minimum, as 2 (a) add-on of 1.5% for banks. may be supplemented by Pillar 2 part of normal risk management; requirements (set by SARB based particularly as the sanctions for going on individual bank risk profiles) under 7% will involve restrictions on their ability to pay dividends. • A ‘conservation buffer’ of 2.5%, We suspect that banks may view the above the 4.5% minimum, must buffers as de facto minima due to the be created to absorb losses negative market signals associated during periods of financial and with holding less capital than the economic stress. Drawing on this required buffers. buffer during times of stress will result in constraints on earnings distributions % 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 ASA FSR NED SBK Combined results Total Tier 1 capital Total Tier 2 capital Source – PwC Analysis South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 19
As Lord Turner (Chairman of the UK’s Financial Standards Authority) is reported to have said, “If we were philosopher kings designing a banking system entirely anew for a greenfield economy, should we have set still higher capital ratios than in the Basel III regime? Yes I believe we should.” Banks adopting the internal rating not take into consideration the fact Both these measures create based (IRB) approach to credit risk that the CAR under the current Basel challenges for the South African would be particularly concerned II rules is not the same as the Basel III banks. The stable funding about the proposed re-introduction CAR, as the Basel III rules are stricter. requirement is a challenge because of the 6% scaling factor to credit risk It also does not take into account the it allows minimal funding of assets weighted assets. This is not strictly additional capital requirements from through short-term liabilities, a Basel III amendment but has been Pillars 2(a) or (b) or indeed what whereas in the years leading up to proposed in draft amendments to these add-on ratios may be. Therefore these new rules, the banks relied the South African regulations to the it would appear to be premature to fairly heavily on short-term funding. Banks Act and will be implemented suggest that the banks should return along with the other Basel III capital to their shareholders. Analysts’ research reports suggested amendments. This proposed 6% that as of July 2010 (and before scaling factor could drastically We also suspect that there will be recently announced modifications), increase the capital requirement of some upward pressure on equity the South African banks had a net banks that apply IRB approaches to levels globally. For instance, NSFR range of 40% to 60%, short of credit risk. It is estimated that the Switzerland has announced capital the benchmark of 100%. 6% scaling factor could result in a requirements on its banks in the high reduction of 45 to 60 basis points teens. We believe that the Basel III The liquidity coverage ratio is a in the capital adequacy ratio of the requirements represent something challenge in South Africa because banks adopting this approach. of a compromise on the part of the assets most liquid during periods regulators in order to minimise any of market stress are government In addition to being a reminder adverse impact on economic growth. securities, and the strong financial of how much common equity the position of South Africa’s public banks have raised in recent years, Will the new liquidity sector means there is a small pool of the table shows that the major government securities relative to the banks are in good shape in relation rules bite credit size of bank balance sheets. to the requirements. Based on our growth? estimates, collectively the banks The challenge for the South African would meet the 7% ratio for common The new liquidity rules are aimed to banks in meeting these requirements equity as at 31 December 2010 and ensure that banks’ funding is on a has been made somewhat less even the 11 % minimum Tier 1 more sustainable, long-term basis, daunting in the past few months by ratio (including the counter-cyclical thus enabling better liquidity during Basel Committee announcements buffer of 2.5%). The major banks times of market turbulence. They which make the requirements less have an average of 12.75% Tier 1 involve two ratios: onerous to meet. ratio based on the current Basel II regulations. This has prompted many • The net stable funding commentators to suggest that the requirement (NSFR) will target banks are currently over-capitalised. better duration matching of The results presentations of the major assets and liabilities. This will be banks have all addressed this issue introduced from 2018, following in varying levels of detail. What is an observation period starting in clear is that given the uncertainty 2012. as to how the Basel III rules will be implemented in South Africa, the • The liquidity coverage ratio major banks have been cautious in (LCR) will require banks to hold returning capital to shareholders or sufficient high quality assets to in setting their capital targets for the survive periods of severe market years ahead. Our analysis of the issue stress. This will be introduced from is that the apparent “surplus” of Tier 2015, following an observation 1 capital above the minimum does period starting in 2011. 20 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
For instance, for the LCR: issue for South African banks. For GDP. On current specifications, this example, pension funds are currently risk cannot be ruled out, but we • The run-off rates of certain retail limited in terms of Regulation 28 of believe in practice it is a low risk – the and small and medium enterprise the Pension Funds Act in terms of National Treasury and the SARB are deposits during periods of market investing in bank debt instruments. acutely aware of this risk and, given stress have been reduced. They are currently limited to the long lead times, the transition can allocating 20% of their total assets be managed. • Likewise, assumed outflows of to banks debt instruments. In many certain funding from central banks cases this 20% already includes the and government have also been liquid assets required by the pension reduced. funds for operational purposes, thereby further limiting the amount • A new category of ‘level 2’ liquid of longer term investment in banks assets (e.g. bonds of certain public liabilities. This has the effect of sector enterprises and covered reducing the availability of additional bonds of other banks) has been longer term funding to banks, introduced and may account for up exacerbating the problem for the to 40% of the requirement. NSFR. Despite these changes, the core The project by the National Treasury issue for the South African banks to investigate potential reforms to regarding the LCR is the shortage of various regulations such as those South African Government Bonds. relating to pension funds, collective The Basel Committee is currently investment schemes and tax determining its response to this regulations could potentially unlock challenge for jurisdictions such as some of the liquidity that is not South Africa. currently available to banks. The position regarding the Another potential source of liquidity NSFR is much the same. Recent for South African banks that has announcements have eased the not received much public debate is impact of the proposals in relation covered bonds, i.e. banks issuing to jurisdictions such as South Africa, bonds secured by ring-fenced for instance in how mortgages are (inevitably very high quality) assets treated. on their balance sheet. Covered bonds have received a lot of attention Nonetheless the postponement and debate in countries such as New of their application until 2018 Zealand and Australia. Covered (following an observation phase) bonds could provide South African is an indication of the extent of banks with another option to access transition required. long-duration wholesale funding, and additionally the bonds could One of the major contributors to the potentially be treated as ‘eligible challenges in meeting the NSFR in securities’ for LCR purposes. South Africa is that a large portion of the savings pool is being held The worst-case scenario would within pension funds and other fund be where the NSFR requirements managers. This, together with the can only be met through the banks structural challenges to unlocking rationing credit (assets) to less than, such liquidity, has exacerbated this say, the rate of growth in nominal South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 21
ASA FSR NED SBK Combined Growth Key banking statistics – Annual 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 09/10 Rm Balance sheet Total assets 716,470 710,796 695,809 802,389 608,718 570,703 1,341,420 1,297,788 3,362,417 3,381,676 -0.57% Gross Loans and acceptances 537,414 555,353 461,503 422,129 486,499 460,099 730,131 742,173 2,215,547 2,179,754 1.64% Total deposits 393,517 392,906 543,713 487,929 490,440 469,355 796,635 768,548 2,224,305 2,118,738 4.98% Risk weighted assets 413,013 386,264 378,490 346,049 323,681 326,466 620,064 599,822 1,735,248 1,658,601 4.62% Asset quality & provisioning Non-performing loans 39,641 36,089 21,117 23,121 26,765 27,045 42,701 48,376 130,224 134,631 -3.27% Impairments -13,902 -13,158 -9,844 -10,991 -11,226 -9,798 -17,106 -18,666 -52,078 -52,613 -1.02% Collective provisions -2,087 -3,222 -3,117 -3,703 -2,154 -1,968 -4,884 -5,588 -12,242 -14,481 -15.46% Individually assessed provisions -11,815 -9,936 -6,727 -7,288 -9,072 -7,830 -12,222 -13,078 -39,836 -38,132 4.47% 22 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis Non-performing loans (% of advances) 7.4% 6.5% 4.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.9% 5.8% 6.5% 5.8% 6.1% -4.39% Impairment charge (% of average advances) 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% -25.78% Impairment coverage ratio 35.1% 36.5% 46.6% 47.5% 41.9% 36.2% 40.1% 38.6% 40.9% 39.7% 3.07% Implied loss given default 29.8% 27.5% 31.9% 31.5% 33.9% 29.0% 28.6% 27.0% 31.0% 28.8% 7.94% Profit & loss analysis (i) Net interest income 23,340 21,854 16,404 12,688 16,608 16,306 28,927 31,493 85,279 82,341 3.57% Non interest income 19,474 20,232 28,579 24,193 13,215 11,906 44,054 41,620 105,322 97,951 7.53% Total operating income 42,814 42,086 44,983 36,881 29,823 28,212 72,981 73,113 190,601 180,292 5.72% Total operating expenses -24,949 -23,227 -26,955 -22,113 -17,045 -15,538 -47,519 -43,589 -116,468 -104,467 11.49% Core earnings 17,865 18,859 18,028 14,768 12,778 12,674 25,462 29,524 74,133 75,825 -2.23% Impairment charge -6,005 -8,967 -4,545 -7,556 -6,188 -6,634 -7,524 -12,097 -24,262 -35,254 -31.18% Other income/(expenses) -9 -50 816 980 -90 679 489 -9 1,206 1,600 -24.63% Income tax expenses -3,262 -2,340 -3,926 -2,439 -1,364 -1,307 -4,965 -4,620 -13,517 -10,706 26.26% Profit for the period 8,589 7,502 10,373 5,753 5,136 5,412 13,462 12,798 37,560 31,465 19.37% Attributable earnings 8,118 6,840 16,994 6,715 4,811 4,826 10,774 11,054 40,697 29,435 38.26% Headline earnings 8,041 7,621 10,004 6,878 4,900 4,277 10,969 11,253 33,914 30,029 12.94% Key data Other operating income (% of total income) 45.5% 48.1% 63.5% 65.6% 44.3% 42.2% 60.4% 56.9% 53.4% 53.2% 0.42% Net interest margin (% of total assets) 3.2% 2.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.6% 3.16% Net interest margin (% of average interest earning advances) 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.8% 4.5% 3.7% 3.5% 4.52% Standardised efficiency ratio 56.5% 53.0% 59.1% 59.3% 55.7% 53.5% 63.1% 57.3% 58.6% 55.8% 4.99% Return on equity 14.3% 15.1% 19.9% 13.8% 11.1% 10.8% 12.6% 13.4% 14.5% 13.3% 9.09% Return on average assets 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 17.92% Total number of staff* 36,770 36,150 38,657 38,760 27,525 27,037 48,125 45,937 151,077 147,884 2.16% Capital ratios Tier 1 12.80% 12.80% 13.60% 13.50% 11.70% 11.50% 12.90% 11.80% 12.75% 12.40% 2.82% Tier 2 2.70% 2.70% 1.70% 2.10% 3.30% 3.30% 2.40% 2.80% 2.53% 2.73% -7.34% Total 15.50% 15.50% 15.30% 15.60% 15.00% 14.80% 15.30% 14.60% 15.28% 15.13% * - Staff numbers for Firstrand were not repeated in December 2H10
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