REAL ESTATE IN ROMANIA & POLAND - 2021 Comparative Market Evolution Office, Retail, Industrial & Residential Financing & Legal Aspects ...
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REAL ESTATE IN ROMANIA & POLAND 2021 Comparative Market Evolution Office, Retail, Industrial & Residential Financing & Legal Aspects Construction & Services
Dear Reader, Welcome to the 2021 edition of “Real Estate in Romania & Poland”. This report is the result of over six months of research and interviews with more than one hundred investors, developers, consultants and key service providers, many a friendly face on the now extremely familiar Zoom or MS platforms, and some smiling from behind a mask, across a conference table. We witnessed the full range of pandemic emotions during our research, from quiet lockdown patience, to cabin fever-ish anticipation, and eventually regained hope Business and gratitude for a return to (almost full) freedom. There is one sentiment, intelligence however, that prevailed throughout, and helped anchor people and maintain their drive: confidence in their field of work, in both Poland & Romania’s you can resilient and rapidly developing real estate segments. trust The following pages will give you a bird’s eye view over the two countries’ potential across the office, retail, industrial and residential segments. Three decades after the fall of communism, and with a mosaic like architecture, Poland and Romania are still rebuilding, reshaping and modernizing their infrastructure to keep up with increasingly sophisticated demands from their populations. Generous yields (well above those of Western Europe), coupled with economic and wage rises, make both countries enviable investment destinations. From this comparative analysis, Poland’s headstart does emerge (and is visible enough through its skyline that will boast Europe’s tallest office building as of this year), offering a mirror into Romania’s future. But the latter also stands out as a hidden gem, previous weaknesses surfacing now as clear strengths. get in touch www.investmentreports.co info@investmentreports.co Enjoy the report! Irina Negoita Sorina Dumitru Co-Founder & Co-Founder & Director Lead Editor
table of contents INTRODUCTION deveoplment & investment LEGAL ASPECTS 8. A Tale of Two Countries 88. Romania’s Legal Environment 12. Macroeconomics 91. Interview Bucharest City Hall & Interview F&R Worldwide 14. Real Estate Markets at a Glance 92. Poland’s Legal Environment 16. Interview AREI (The Association of Real Estate Investors in Romania) 18. Interview PINK (The Polish Chamber of Commercial Properties) 19. Interview PAD (Polish Association of Developers) 20. Expert Opinion Article: Outlook for 2021, Deloitte Romania CONSTRUCTION & KEY SERVICES 96. A Post Pandemic Construction Hype Market EVOLUTION 98. Interview Concept Structure 24. Romania: Low Risk, High Reward 99. Interview CON-A Group 27. The Office Market in Romania Despite the global pandemic, the Real Estate 100. Interview BTDConstruct & Ambient 29. Interview S IMMO & Interview CA Immo markets of Poland and Romania continue to 101. Interview PORR & Interview Construcții Erbașu 30. Interview Globalworth Group offer enviable returns across all sectors. 102. A Historical Price Surge for Building Materials 31. Interview One United Properties & Interview Forte Partners pp. 24 - 72 104. Interview Etem 32. Interview Speedwell 105. Interview Wienerberger Romania 34. The Retail Market in Romania construction & services 107. Interview Rustler Romania 35. Interview Argo Capital Management Property & Interview IMMOFINANZ 108. Interview KONE ASCENSORUL 36. Interview NEPI Rockcastle & Interview Sonae Sierra 37. Interview AFI Europe & Interview Iulius Group 38. The Industrial Market in Romania 40. Interview CTP & Interview VGP 110. FINAL THOUGHTS 42. Expert Opinion Article: Logistics & Land Development, Crosspoint 44. Interview ARILOG (Romanian Logistics Association) 45. Interview DP World Constanța 46. The Residential Market in Romania 112. COMPANY INDEX 48. Interview Impact Developer & Contractor 49. Interview One United Properties & Interview Hagag Development Europe 50. Poland: Taller by the Day 51. The Office Market in Poland 53. Interview Immobel Poland Poland and Romania host world class 54. The Retail Market in Poland construction giants, a full array of service 56. Interview EPP Group providers and generous workforce. 57. The Industrial Market in Poland pp. 96 - 108 60. Interview Fortress REIT 61. Interview SEGRO 62. 64. The Residential Market in Poland Four Major Trends in Real Estate exclusive interviews 68. Interview Siemens 70. Interview Bright Spaces 71. Interview Sixense Romania 72. Expert Opinion Article: Green Buildings, NAI Romania INVESTMENT & FINANCING 76. Investment Volumes and Pipeline in Romania & Poland 78. Interview UniCredit Bank 80. Expert Opinion Article: REITs in Romania & Poland 82. Interview Zeus Capital Management Dimitris Raptis Tomasz TRZÓSŁO Magdalena SZULC Fulga DINU 84. Expert Opinion Article: Green Financing, NNDKP CEO CEO Managing Director CE Country Manager RO Globalworth Group EPP Group SEGRO IMMOFINANZ p. 30 p. 56 p. 61 p. 35
INTRODUCTION Referring specifically to Romania and Poland, we are extremely selective when it comes to our investment decisions and we always make a thorough assessment of risks and opportunities when starting a new venture. Because these two countries have the biggest and fastest developing markets in CEE, it was a natural decision to run business here. If you factor in the “country risk”, both Romania and Poland are not yet at the safety level of Western European countries, however, property investments have a special profile here. All CEE countries are ahead of other European states from a growth potential point of view because the workforce is not as expensive. In addition, since they are slightly underdeveloped technology wise, we can turn this challenge into an opportunity and build from zero state-of-the-art projects that meet the highest ecological standards (e.g., photovoltaics, use of rainwater, etc.) Maciej TUSZYNSKI Managing Director Europe Fortress REIT
INTRODUCTION investment reports investment reports INTRODUCTION Allow us to take you on a brief walking right: Palace of Science and Cultue Warsaw, ©Valik Chernetscki left: Bucharest Atheneum, © Pelayo Arbues tour of the two countries’ capitals and fast growing secondary cities, as part of the present business assessment study that looks over the residential, retail, industrial and office segments alike. The pandemic that we are all still navigating naturally had wildly differing effects on them, that are still rippling through the industry segments, but by and large after a few months of “wait and see” businesses forged ahead, even thriving in areas such as residential and industrial. Poland has been in the limelight more than Romania, however, by speaking to over 100 savvy developers, investors and key service providers, our conclusions clearly show that both countries’ property markets A TALE of are still investment-wise diamonds in the rough, with demand increasingly TWO COUNTRIES outstripping supply. the two DISTINCTIVE SHAPES OF A most STRONG PORTFOLIO The year 2019, or the last year of the “before times’’, marked 100 years since Poland and Romania officially established diplomatic relations. Poland was the first state to recognize the unification with Transylvania, populous making the two Central and Eastern Europe’s largest population pools. And what a century it has been! Both countries countries have rich histories, spanning feudal societies, monarchies shattered and reborn, several decades in cee under the iron first of communism, all culminating with the modern post 1989 era of democratic rule and In order to understand Poland’s and gradual internationalization. All these historical shifts left a cookie trail of architectural and infrastructure Romania’s property and infrastructure influences, resulting in a true mosaic of the countries’ respective real estate industries. evolution, let’s take a quick look at their main real estate hubs - their capital cities. From a bird’s eye view Bucharest and Warsaw can have a similar vibe source: Eurostat with their large communist style boulevards and grey-tinted, imposing POLAND buildings, mixed with historical and patrimony ones, meandering streets and roundabouts. But upon entering Warsaw one is immediately hit by popULATION: 37.9 mil the city’s impressive, US reminiscent GDP/capita: EUR 12.680 skyline, testament to the country’s MEDIAN MONThLY INCOME: ROMANIA swift economic overhaul of the past three decades, well ahead of Romania’s EUR 1.275 that in certain ways looks at Poland popULATION: 19.3 mil as a mirror to the future. This is POLAND energy industry 2020 GDP/CAPITA: EUR 8.780 mainly due to the latter’s success in attracting foreign capital, absorbing MEDIAN MONThLY INCOME: EU funding and developing a robust EUR 750 Central Business District and dynamic industrial ecosystem. www.simmoag.ro www.simmoag.at 8 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 9
INTRODUCTION investment reports investment reports INTRODUCTION BUCHAREST WARSAW A CITY OF CONTRASTS the indestructible phoenix Bucharest went through a flourishing period Warsaw is notable among Europe’s capital cities not so much for its in the 19th century, when Western style size, its age, or its beauty but for its indestructibility. It is a phoenix influences combining romanticism and that has risen repeatedly from the ashes of war. neoclassical elements earned it the “Little Paris” label, boasting its very own Arch of Warsaw and Poland’s urban landscape went through a swathe of Triumph. Emblematic buildings such as the historical phases, with the capital city harboring a number of stories Atheneum, Cantacuzino Palace, Cotroceni and styles including gothic, renaissance, baroque, and neoclassical. St. Palace (current presidential abode) or the John’s Cathedral from the 14th century is one of many remarkable Palace of Justice were erected during this places of worship, and baroque style beauties such as Wilanow Palace period. The city kept developing in the or Kazimierz Church stand as remnants of the Polish-Lithuanian interwar period, with Art Deco buildings such kingdom. as the Telephone Palace and functionalist ones like the Bucharest North Railway station top: Bucharest, City Center, 1930 © Alex Gâlmeanu, Muzeul de Fotografie or the National Bank of Romania taking shape. right: Pretzel vendors in uniform in front of Warsaw, 1890 the Arch of Triumph, 1950, © Nicolae Ionescu “Varsovie Le Chateau de Vilanov”, © Monovisions Photo Magazine The second half of the 20th century bore the mark of The city went through an enlargement Ceaușescu’s communist ideals, building up residential phase in 1916 when many housing neighbourhoods to accommodate the cities’ fast paced estates popped up, housing workers, industrialization and igniting a wave of urban migration. writers and army officials alike. By and His visits to North Korea and China birthed ambitions large, however, Warsaw is not all that of wide boulevards and buildings such as the grandiose meets the eye - it suffered great losses Palace of Parliament, to this date the largest administrative during WWII when most of the city was building in the world after the Pentagon, for which many bombed, and had to be rebuilt from the of Southern Bucharest’s historical buildings and center ashes, at times respecting buildings’ top: Warsaw City Center, 1955, had to be demolished and much of the city rebuilt. The original designs, at others bending © Warsaw Institute main feature of this epoch, however, are the dull, solemn some according to socialist realist left: Warsaw, Stary Rynek Market Square, 1945, and cramped blocks of flats, whose future is boggling the architecture. © ilovepoland.net minds of present day urban planners. Bucharest, Palace Hall, 1960, postcard The post communist era spanning the past BUCHAREST WARSAW three decades witnessed the rise of glass BUSINESS BUSINESS and steel architecture and the (slow, initially Wild West style in the 1990s) rise of office district district buildings, malls and retails centers, modern residential buildings, and more recently Bucharest’s dominant business The Palace of Science and industrial and logistics centers in the city’s area is located in the Northern Culture, the tallest building outskirts. This is a period marked by heavy part of the city. The district in Warsaw (230 m) is now privatization and foreign investment, concentrates most of the city’s surrounded by modern accelerated by the country’s joining of the upcoming developments. skyscrapers. EU in 2007. The saying goes that out of chaos beauty is born - and as poetic as that sounds, Bucharest’s story finds us in 2021 © The New York Times in the midst of a jumble of eager, not always Warsaw’s tallest building remains the (in)famous 1950s Palace of Science and Culture, a so-called Communist skyscraper that well integrated construction projects, and SkyTower, used to tower over an otherwise mostly flat city with its 230 m. The city also makes one stop and stare at the Stalinist style authorities that bear on their shoulders the the tallest building in large boulevards and brutalist buildings. Starting with the 1990s however, the city slowly developed its own skyline, to rival Bucharest ( 137m) mission of rethinking the city’s overall urban that of London, Paris or Frankfurt in height and modernity. The Palace of Science and Culture’s dominance will be overthrown development future. in 2021, when Varso Tower’s whooping 310 m will make it not only Poland’s but the entire EU’s tallest building. 10 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 11
INTRODUCTION investment reports investment reports EASE OF DOING BUSINESS GDP GROWTH RATE - VOLUME % 100 8 80 100 100 7 87.7 82.9 82.3 85.2 60 80.0 75.0 76.4 76.5 6 76.4 75.0 63.9 72.2 64.4 5 62.0 66.0 59.1 4 40 58.4 53.7 3 20 2 0 1 0 Starting BUILDING Getting Registering Getting Protecting Paying Trading Enforcing Resolving -1 a Business Permits Electricity Property Credit Minority Taxes across Contracts Insolvency -2 Investors Borders -3 -4 source: World Bank Group -5 -6 -7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 POLAND ROMANIA 40 76.4 Scores lowest on: 55 73.3 Scores lowest on: Registering property (63.9) - 135 days Getting electricity (score 53.7) POLAND ROMANIA EU DB RANK DB score Protecting minority investors (score 66.0) DB RANK DB score Dealing with construction permits (score 58.4) 24 different procedures and 260 days. Scores highest on: Scores highest on: source: Eurostat Trading across borders (score 100) Trading across borders (score 100) Starting a business (score 82.9) - 37 days Starting a business (87.7) - less than 30 days CORRUPTION KEY LEU (RON) EUR = RON 4,92 INDEX FIGURES ZŁOTY (PLN) EUR = PLN 4,54 ROMANIA RANK: 69/180 SCORE: 44/100 absorption of EU SHARE IN EU POPULATION (%) INFLATION POLAND funds by 2020 RO : 4.3 RATE RANK: 45/180 (out of the 2014-2020 PL : 8.5 SCORE: 56/100 Inflation in the eurozone rose multiannual financial sharply in May 2021 to 2% - just COVID-19 VACCINATIONS framework) POPULATION EVOLUTION (2020, PER THOUSAND) above the European Central (as of june 2021) RO : -5.0 Bank’s target. As economies recover from the pandemic-driven ROMANIA PL : -0.4 downturn, inflation is climbing. 29% POLAND POPULATION PROJECTION (2050, aPPROX.) 43.5% RO : 16.2 MIL ROMANIA ROMANIA EU AVERAGE PL : 33.8 MIL 3.5% (Q2 2021) 8.9 mil 37.7% National Bank of Romania (NBR) 23% of population UNEMPLOYEMENT RATE (Q1 2021) POLAND RO : 6.1 % 3.1% (MARCH 2021) POLAND Source: Transparency International PL : 6.3 % National Bank of Poland (NBP) The Corruption Perceptions Index 28.9 mil EUROZONE ranks 180 countries and territories by 38% of population their perceived levels of public sector 2% (MAY 2021) corruption, according to experts and European Central Bank (ECB) business people. source: Reuters source: Eurostat 12 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 13
development hotspots investment reports investment reports development hotspots ROMANIA POLAND INVESTMENT TURNOVER 2020 office & retail office & retail bucharest SQM (Q1 2021) The office segment represented EUR 770 MILLION an all-time record The industrial segment accounted for EUR 2.7 billion becoming warsaw SQM (Q1 2021) for this market segment. the most traded asset class for the first time in history. 2.99 mil 6 mil OVERALL : EUR 892.5 mILLION OVERALL : EUR 5,6 BILLION 1.17 mil 1.98 mil industrial industrial 7.00 4.50 nationwide SQM (Q1 2021) 5.08 mil YiELDS (%) - Q4 2020 7.25 5.25 nationwide SQM (Q1 2021) 21.4 mil 8.00 5.75 ≈ 2.500 price per sqm in warsaw (RESIDENTIAL, Q1 2021) Poland accounted for more than half of the total volume transacted across CEE in 2020 (EUR 5,9 bn out of a total of EUR 9,7 bn). Despite being a point of interest for investors for many years now, the country keeps leading most charts in the region, with intense activity taking place in Warsaw but also its already highly developed secondary markets. Romania’s yields stand well above the European average, presenting a very appealing investment prospect. The ≈ 1.500 business community is mainly concentrated around Bucharest price per sqm (it hosts for instance 3 million of the country’s total 4 million in BUCHAREST sqm of office space), however, this is rapidly changing with (RESIDENTIAL, Q1 2021) cities such as Iasi, Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara or Brasov offering expansion alternatives for companies. 14 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 15
INTRODUCTION investment reports As Romania’s leading association Municipal Mayor’s decision to suspend zonal urban plans dedicated to real estate, what is the (ZUPs), we were pleasantly surprised by the openness of driving force pushing you forward mayors in Districts 2 and 6 towards working together to and overarching mission? find a solution to the urgent urbanism problem. Bottom line, the main issue A.C.: AREI’s main purpose is to defend the rights of its members and is the lack of procedure and advance an equitable and just legal consistency. The most recent What is your vision for how the Bucharest of the future environment. It is our mission to “lead legislative proposal is to put should look? by example” – while remembering that all real estate laws under A.C.: First and foremost, Bucharest should have better real estate industry players are after all a vital part of urban development a single roof, known as the planned integrated projects that give the urban scenery across all its sectors, putting together Construction Code. a smoother, more consistent look. Developers alongside Antoanela the offices we work in, the houses we authorities must acknowledge that the city is already busy live in, and the establishments where enough and there are areas where you simply cannot build we shop and go for entertainment. anymore. Reducing traffic is a top priority and by following COMȘA V.L.: One focal point in AREI’s the large shopping centers after the lockdown period. Likewise, Law 50 European solutions (bigger taxes, no parking on main streets, etc.), one that should be easy enough to solve. mission is to build a transparent and regarding building permits should comprehensive perception of the be more flexible regarding the time V.L.: I would like to see more green areas and bicycle President real estate industry, emphasizing the frame developers have to obtain all lanes in Bucharest, there are still very few compared to AREI business value and moral code that our members already follow. We the documents needed for utilities connection (water, electricity, sewage, what could, and hopefully will be. This is in line with what all industries nowadays are focusing on, namely more do see outside of our association etc.) since providers usually act after sustainable business practices. examples in the market that do not their own internal laws. play by the book and, unfortunately, From your professional perspective how does the AREI (The Association of Real Estate any sideslip of a real estate developer We were present when the draft was Romanian real estate market compare to other markets of Investors in Romania) represents reflects upon our association and the conceived and we fully support a set CEE, and what trends should international investors keep the voice of all four sectors: office, industry itself. of updated laws and regulations, much an eye out for? AREI needed by the rapidly evolving real residential, industrial and retail – in relationship with the national What are the most ardent legislation estate sector. A.C.: From a bird’s eye view, in Romania it is in fact much ASSOCIATION authorities. issues AREI aims to solve, and easier and faster to obtain a building permit than in Western European countries. For instance in Spain it can take up OF REAL ESTATE solutions that could help level the Regarding the discussions you had real estate market? with authorities - what are some of to seven years. Similarly, in other countries it’s mandatory INVESTORS your most important wins and are to design the entire infrastructure of the project before A.C.: In the past few months, we there any notable standstills? applying for the building permit. If you are a law-abiding focused on Law 114 - a 1996 piece investor, Romania has a market full of opportunities, The most significant community of of legislation regarding housing A.C.: The bright side is that during our especially in the residential sector where there is a stock real estate investors in Romania. standards and norms. Law 114 discussions with central authorities of over 50% ageing apartments in need of a makeover. suffers from a great deal of gaps that we were always met with respect and Regardless of all the challenges mentioned before, the www.arei.ro result in mixed interpretations from they showed genuine interest towards Romanian market is a lot more lenient and welcoming than the authorities. During the period solving the problems we were raising. other countries in CEE. affected by the pandemic, we worked For example, the inspectorate for on and advanced some important emergencies immediately took note V.L.: From my point of view, Romania has a fast maturing initiatives such as: AREI guidelines and understood our deadlocks that market that is more than open to savvy investors. At the on workforce re-entry measures for rose from the daily implementations moment we are curating an incipient legislative project offices; Legislative initiative on the of the pieces of legislation under that will impact REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts). Voichița postponement of rent payments, instead of exemption for both retail review. By contrast, local authorities (especially Bucharest’s City Hall) are This piece of legislation should put Romania on the map alongside other EU countries. Also, green projects are LEFTER and offices, during the state of more rigid and it’s hard to establish a becoming a priority, with dedicated laws for parking spots emergency; and contributed with our clear cut relationship with them. for electric vehicles, the revitalization of national railways, expertise to endorse the Government among many other shifts. initiative on the state aid scheme for V.L.: Indeed, we’re bumping into partial payment of rents for retail. the reluctant attitude of some local Secretary General We also had a very constructive mayors, but sometimes the day is AREI dialogue with the Government that saved by counselors who are eager was conducive to the re-opening of to find solutions. Following the 16 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021
INTRODUCTION investment reports investment reports INTRODUCTION Would you say that, nowadays, the In Poland, the real estate market level of taxation is encouraging to is dominated by international real estate businesses in Poland? investors (more than 90%) - why do you think this trend exists and is The Polish Association of Developers is a nationwide Konrad Certainly, in the past there were less regulations strictly focused on real there a blockage that prevents local companies from investing? industry organization operating for 18 years PŁOCHOCKI estate and for the last four years, we and associating over 200 have been trying to close the gap 15 years ago, in Poland there was development companies from regarding the special income tax. not enough local capital and we The main goal is to make the rules don’t have a regime which allows all over the country. Managing Director well balanced from the industry’s the creation of vehicles for private Polish Association of perspective, but some of the investors (like a REIT). As the market Developers (PAD) regulations are still too burdensome matured, it naturally became a place for the players, creating a certain level for international players because the of uncertainty in the market. investments were too significant for Paweł local ones. The current real estate market is the result of a historical You have been at the helm of the Polish Association of Real Estate Poland is a mature market that is drawing much attention but it only TOŃSKI lack of Polish capital coupled with defective institutional laws. There is Developers for over nine years, how have you been supporting your has so many sqm… also a psychological reason behind members throughout this time? Every year we put our mark That would be our third challenge: the this trend, since, in the past, Polish lack of investment plots. Short supply on some 25-30 legislative The level of taxation is not individual investors preferred the Lobbying activities are a natural part in this area impacts developers’ future President of the residential sector because they of our value proposition, but not the projects that affect real planning and profitability, considering as dire as it used to be, but couldn’t grasp the particularities of only one. Training and lobbying each estate. I am proud to say that that we are getting less in terms of Management Board we still have to explain the commercial market. make up for around 40%, whereas PR our opinions are considered spatial development plans and zoning PINK Association to the authorities that and marketing count for around 20% decisions. In the last five years, the in almost 80% of the cases, a the uncertainty of “how What would be some of the of PAD’s activities. We issue 10 to 15 average price for an investment challenges the pandemic posed to reports a year as a reference source clear sign that we should industrial plot went up by 80%. This much” and “when” needs to your members and how did you help for the government and our members. carry on. affects industrial more than other completely disappear in order mitigate them? For example, a hot topic in 2020 was real estate sectors, as warehousing PINK Association (The Polish Chamber of Commercial Properties) for transactions to how to reach energy efficiency in facilities created a steady demand brings together developers, investors work smoothly. PINK has joined forces with developers buildings. For this job we joined forces during the pandemic. and office investors to promote the with top professionals like universities, and commercial service providers. importance of office activities and law firms and other associations. Could you highlight two or three main What are PAD’s top priorities for the The main goal of the association is to how they are vital in a well-functioning challenges the industry is facing, next two to three years? influence the legislative action that society. Even though working from We are successful in getting people and ways in which you are trying to directly affect its members. Are there any specific pieces of home is a perfectly adapted solution to work together by giving them address them? I want to establish our association legislation that you are fighting for at to the current context, we want to also something first. We share information as a knowledge hub and a platform this point in time, to improve upon? emphasize on the benefits of working which we know has problem-solving Our number one challenge is going for coming up with environmentally from an office. Retail owners have potential in the present as well as the green. Balance must be found so friendly development solutions. We started working with the suffered a lot during the pandemic immediate future. Typically, people that neither the environment nor Business knowledge in terms of past government on the REITs regime and we continually tried to sustain our reciprocate and trust is formed. the end user suffers. Poland doesn’t mistakes, proposed solutions, or (again) because this was an ardent members, though the authorities need have a legal environmental standard projections is essential for developers issue for members and we wanted to to also play their part. for real estate developers to abide to seek and be able to find. Last but solve it. The authorities put together by. However, we don’t wait for not least, we will invite more local and an inter-ministerial technical team regulators to tell us what to do. governmental representatives to our that will introduce the new regulations Instead, we created an internal culture thematic groups, hoping to achieve a in the near future, this being a positive of sustainability among our members critical mass able to spread awareness signal from their part. A slightly by training them on how to contribute and join efforts to solve the problems smaller, but still troubling issue of the to reforestation. Our second main that developers are facing today in industry is represented by the new set challenge lies in achieving fairness in Poland. of rules that allow telecommunication taxation by convincing the authorities providers to enter buildings without to charge end users on a number of owners’ approval. While we bought sqm basis. understand the need for direct access, this regulation is detrimental, to say the least. 18 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 19
expert opinion article investment reports investment reports expert opinion article What Will 2021 Bring for Romania’s Real Estate Market? Deloitte is the largest integrated professional services Alexandru organization, and conducted the very first audit in the world. Real REFF by Alexandra Smedoiu, Tax Partner and Real Estate Industry Leader, Deloitte Romania, estate is a key industry sector, and Irina Dimitriu, Partner, Reff & Associates, Deloitte Legal and in collaboration with their Romania’s real estate market has evolved beyond legal branch Reff & Associates, Country expectations in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 are Deloitte assisted some of the moderately optimistic, given the strong connections country’s largest real estate Managing Partner between this sector and the industries it serves. The transactions. Deloitte Romania economy rebounded by 5.8% in Q3 and by 4.8% in Q4, after a 12.2% contraction in the second quarter of 2020. Private consumption, the main driver of last year’s What was the idea behind setting Other than the digital tools, what are What are some of the main challenges growth, is expected to recover strongly from the second up Reff & Associates? How does it the main services you provide to the to the sector, if fiscal policy is not half of 2021 as the rollout of vaccinations should allow complement Deloitte’s work? real estate sector? among them? for a gradual lifting of restrictions and investment is set to remain strong over the next years, supported by the Deloitte has been widely diversifying, We are particularly passionate about I think it is fair to say that Romania’s construction sector. it’s not uncommon, and a legal ad- real estate, no doubt about it and we fiscal environment has all in all been on just made sense. We set up Reff & approach it through a multidisciplinary advantageous to investors, despite As a general remark, 2020 was not a bad year for the Romanian real estate market. Romania’s economy Associates in 2006 as a separate entity, dedicated team coordinated by some occasional hiccups. Rather, the In fact, strictly from the transactions’ perspective, it was one of the best years of rebounded that works in alliance with Deloitte to Alexandra Smedoiu, Tax Partner problem has been one of political the last decade, with a volume rising close to the benchmark of EUR 1 billion. Even though most of the deals closed last year were started before March 2020, and by 5.8% in Q3 serve clients who more often than not at Deloitte Romania and our real credibility and perceived corruption. by 4.8% in Q4 2020. also need legal counseling, and that also estate industry leader. We advise This is linked to the infamous the total volume was significantly influenced by one or two large transactions, the works as an independent law house. developments and transactions alike. infrastructure challenges, a hurdle signals received earlier this year show an increase in investor confidence in the Where parties put their trust in resilient to investments across the board. Romanian real estate market. projects, price adjustment mechanisms One side of the practice we have been The fiscal practice is focused on direct Likewise, the country has had a hard were negotiated (i.e. additional amounts focused intently on is digitalization and indirect taxation for real estate time attracting capital, be it private, Mature investors are certainly prudent in these turbulent times, but are, at the received by the seller in several years, under the umbrella of what we call transactions. In Financial Advisory, we European funds and so on, and access same time, looking at the big picture before taking any major business decisions. to the extent to which the project met legal management consulting. Tech have two teams relevant for real estate, to capital markets is weaker than in This is the reason why prices for attractive projects have not dropped, COVID-19 certain key performance indicators). is opening up a new world, so we a transaction services team focused Western Europe. related issues have very cautiously and wisely been brought to the negotiation are assisting clients to optimize their on due diligence and advice on sales table and deals that were frozen during the first months of the national lockdown Mixed Feelings on Commercial RE internal processes and embrace new contracts, and a corporate finance team On the other hand competition is are now being revived. technologies. This involves using who are rather “deal makers” and take lower than in investor-crowded Poland Since the beginning of the COVID-19 solutions like RPA (robotic process overall responsibility for structured or Czech Republic, for instance, and It may appear as a surprise that the re-shaping of investment plans performed pandemic, commercial real estate automation) and other tools, some transaction processes. yields are significantly higher. We have last year has attracted more focus on real estate, in the sense that players with players in Romania faced various specifically tailored to certain industries clients who want to liquidate Western successful businesses in other fields are looking to invest their profits in quality strategic and operational risks, with (retail, property, financial services). In management consulting we also European assets in order to invest more projects (office, residential and logistic), while traditional real estate developers notable differences between market support clients in various ways – one in Romania. became more inclined to capitalize on their operating assets (via sale-purchase or segments. In the following years, they For instance, we digitized compliance interesting segment is comprised of joint venture) and use the proceeds for financing their on-going projects. need to pay attention to tenants’ with regulatory requirements applicable non specialized real estate owners, and final users’ needs and respond to commercial property owners and such as state institutions or other All the above have generated new (and somehow unexpected) opportunities. accordingly. Most of the owners, retailers, based on a comprehensive legacy companies, who own property On the one hand, players have become more creative and showed flexibility in developers and investors in this field inventory of existing regulations and but need advice on how to strategize conceiving deal structures meant to accommodate silent partners and generally consider contractual adjustments and automated features such as self- around it. There are many very valuable joint ventures. On the other hand, once the lockdown was over, it was generally flexibility to be the main attributes that review, remedial project management property portfolios (central buildings accepted that the pandemic challenge cannot and should not stop the transactions. will count for tenants and end-users and updates based on new legislation, or lands), breaking even or even when the health crisis ends. expiration or changes in requirements incurring losses. The military or utilities for permits etc. companies, for example, have buildings 2020 saw In conclusion, the real estate market with immense potential provided they real estate transactions can still yield surprises, but it looks like, find the right investors to repurpose them. with both ups and downs, it managed near the eur 1 bil mark to navigate the pandemic year and come out in relatively good shape. 20 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 21
MARKET EVOLUTION In each crisis we have a letter tracing the line of recovery; 2008’s was W and now K is being used to mirror the divergent paths varying industries are taking, creating multiple crossroads. The retail and office segments are clearly affected in the short to medium term, while residential and logistics are on the rise. But beyond this, there will be successful and unsuccessful players and projects within each of the four segments, based on their respective fundamentals, so I expect divergence within, not just between segments of the industry. Alexandru REFF Country Managing Partner Deloitte Romania
market evolution - romania investment reports photo: Bucharest from above ROMANIA low risk, high reward by Alexandru David, Head of Research, JLL Romania Romania is a rapidly developing country, and an established EU and NATO member. In 2019, the World Bank promoted Romania in the High-income group of countries, with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of EUR 10,600. For 2021, the European Commission projects that Romania will enjoy the third highest GDP growth rate in the EU, of 5.1%. This trend is most likely to continue in the medium term, considering that Romania will benefit during 2021-2027 from almost EUR 80 billion worth of EU investments from the Multiannual Financial Framework and the Recovery and Resilience Fund. Economic development was also average net wages romania (EUR/month) reflected in the purchasing power of the local population. Between 2016 800 and 2020 the average net wages in 700 the country have increased by almost 600 43%, from approximately EUR 525 500 to EUR 750. International companies 400 opening offices in Romania or 300 establishing production facilities here had an important role to play in this. 200 100 0 In 2019, the World Bank 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 promoted Romania in the High-income group of source: JLL Research, based on data from the National Institute of Statistics countries with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of EUR 10.600 24 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021
market evolution - romania investment reports investment reports market evolution - romania Romania Real Estate Market Overview The Romanian commercial real estate market provides OFFICES opportunities in all segments, both in terms of development and Multinational companies are increasingly targeting Romania due to the country’s human capital, with strong foreign investment. Historically, the market has been driven mainly by Aurelia LUCA language skills, as well as the availability of quality office products at competitive pricing. Romania currently has a total local or regional developers, but, especially in the last seven years, Executive VP Operations modern (A and B class) office stock to lease of approx. 4 million sqm, including Bucharest and the four major regional cities we have seen increasing interest from international institutional Hungary & Romania of Cluj-Napoca, Timișoara, Iași and Brașov. However, Bucharest alone accounts for almost 3 million sqm of modern offices. players. Some of the international office developers with a track Skanska record in Romania are: Globalworth, Skanska, AFI Europe, GTC, office buildings delivered IMMOFINANZ, CA Immo. In the retail sector, NEPI, AFI Europe, Sonae Sierra, S IMMO or IMMOFINANZ have been active. The in bucharest (sqm GLA) industrial sector has been shaped by developers such as CTP, P3, 44% WDP, VGP and Alinso Group. drop in total office demand 350.000 The pandemic brought to light how important The main office developments are located in Bucharest and the in 2020 300.000 it is to work outside of our homes from a top secondary cities with strong university centers that can offer 250.000 mental health point of view, but also from a the relevant labour force with higher education. Retail developers 200.000 community and socializing one. The offices have targeted most of the 42 county capitals in Romania, focusing 150.000 of the future will have a strong accent on mainly on those with a high population density and high disposable During the last five years, approx. 100.000 wellbeing, safety and human connection incomes. There are industrial projects throughout the country, 1 million sqm GLA of offices were 50.000 through larger common spaces, leisure rooms however access to good infrastructure and proximity to either delivered in Bucharest, marking a 50% 0 and top-notch facilities. During the pandemic Bucharest or, CEE and the rest of Europe, has directed investors increase of the office stock. Another 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 we introduced the Care for Life Office Concept, interest mainly towards the Western part of the country (Timișoara, 256,000 sqm are expected to be source: JLL Research focused on tenants’ safety and wellbeing. Arad, Cluj-Napoca, Sibiu) or to the Central-South (Bucharest delivered in 2021. Greater Area, Ploiești, Pitești) and more recently towards the East, namely Bacău and Iași to cover the Moldavian part of the country. Many international companies have chosen Bucharest in recognition of its extended infrastructure and due to Bucharest experienced a strong demand for office spaces during 2016-2019, on the availability of skilled workforce. In average over 360,000 sqm being leased in total on a yearly basis. However, the particular, high office space demand COVID-19 pandemic had a detrimental impact for the local economy and for comes from IT&C companies, such office space demand. 2020 marked a 44% drop in total demand compared to as Microsoft, IBM, HP, Oracle, Intel, the previous year. At the same time, the vacancy rate increased from 7.7% at the Adobe or Siemens, amongst others. end of 2019, prior to the onset of the pandemic, to 11.3% at the end of 2020. A workplace built to give you the ground TO CREATE,TO INSPIRE, TO BREATHE. Few realize just how much Bucharest has grown, 2.5 million people including the outskirts, meaning that fighting congestion has become a priority for the authorities and people alike. When we presented the “Timpuri Noi Square” concept to potential tenants we wanted to keep it short and sweet – Timpuri Noi is connected to Bucharest’s two main metro lines, which gets you within 30 minutes just about anywhere. It is also one of the city’s main residential areas, Antoniu PANAIT and if you want to be successful you build your office not close to the GM’s Managing Director house, but to where most of your employees live. People have started valuing VASTINT Romania family time over commutes, even over company allegiance or salary grade. Timpuri Noi Square is now nearly 100% leased, and Orhideea is at 75% after Vastint is an international real NTT’s recent addition. The quality speaks for itself, as even this year we were estate organization spanning able to sign nearly 10,000 sqm. That being said, of course the pandemic has hit 30 years. Present in Romania everyone, ourselves included. But make no mistake, the pandemic will not mark since 2008, they developed the end of the office era. We are deeply rooted social beings, we need to work emblematic projects, such as together and feel that sense of “normalcy” and purpose. Business Garden Bucharest. 26 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 27
investment reports market evolution - romania Market rents in Bucharest were stable during the last 5 years, at around EUR 12.5 per sqm per month in the During the past few years CA Immo exited several CEE non-central areas, EUR 15 per sqm per month in the markets (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, etc.) - how does semi-central areas, and EUR 18.5 per sqm per month Romania fit into the company’s portfolio? in the Central Business District (CBD) of the city. Romania is a core market that kept steady, amounting to Currently, the office market in Bucharest is in a about 7-8% of the total global portfolio of CA Immo. At the recovery process, as companies return to normal and moment, we are consolidating the projects that are on the reassess their strategies following the pandemic. roll, since 2020 was such a challenging year for everyone. Signing new leasing contracts was difficult, as in most other One important event for the office market in 2020 Daniela Friedrich global jurisdictions, but we registered a very good appetite was the EU’s decision to locate in Bucharest the headquarters of the future European Cybersecurity BĂDULESCU WACHERNIG for renewals. Overall, Romania’s turnover fared well and was at the same level as in 2019. Industrial, Technology and Research Competence Country Manager RO Group COO Center. This move is expected to stimulate S IMMO AG S IMMO AG The plan is to stay on the Romanian market for the long- technological research and innovation and to run. We have numerous projects with zero vacancy over consolidate the cybersecurity within the Union. How relevant is the business you do in Romania within the last decade and we are proud to say that many tenants Moreover, the Center will become the main EU body the company’s international portfolio? have been with us since the delivery of the building and to manage the European funds dedicated to research have been telling us it is an ideal work environment for in the field of cybersecurity, available through two FW: Approximately one third of our portfolio is based in their activities ever since. EU financing programs, Digital Europe and Horizon Europe. In terms of office demand, this will likely CEE and the remaining two thirds in Germany & Austria. Since it’s still in a transition process, the Romanian market Bucharest’s office sector is continually expanding and attract to Bucharest IT and cybersecurity companies has massive room to catch up with western standards and changing - can new development opportunities still be from all over Europe in the short and medium term. this is why it occupies a special place in our portfolio. found here? We expect to see more growth in the upcoming years also in the 4 regional cities of Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara, The office sector is suffering from some disruptions on Looking at the big picture, the market potential is immense Iasi and Brasov, currently concentrating around one the background of the global pandemic. How are these and in the following years the only limitation will be million sqm of modern offices in total and providing impacting you? represented by the available workforce. The equation is expansion alternatives for companies. simple: more employees in the work field require more DB: At the beginning of the pandemic we braced for office spaces. Besides Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Iași and 2020 marked an important milestone for the regional impact and we were happy to find out that the occupation Timișoara are strong university centers and their pool of markets, when the American giant Amazon pre- rate dropped only by 10%. We expect it to grow back by talented graduates will lead to more job creation, in turn leased over 30,000 sqm GLA in Iași. This is the largest 3-4% in the near future - some companies will be pressured rising the demand for office spaces. historical deal recorded in the regional cities and the second largest in Romania overall. to reduce their costs, but overall we managed to bite the bullet and mitigate most of our losses. Are you considering expanding beyond Bucharest to capture these growing opportunities? What is the number one issue that keeps you up at night We are most interested in liquid markets and this aspect MARKET RENTS when doing business here? is not as strongly represented in other cities as it is, at this (Bucharest, sqm/month) F.W.: First of all, I have been doing business in Romania for point, in Bucharest. A dynamic environment where exits are commonplace is attractive both for local and foreign many years now and I sleep quite well. Even though there’s still a long way to go, a lot of things have improved since investors because they can be sure their investment will 1996, when I first arrived here. Problems are easily solved not be blocked in a stationary market. through communication and palpable examples of how things can be done better. For example, infrastructure was EUR 12.5 a notorious problem of the Romanian real estate market, but fortunately the odds have been changing in the past non central areas few years. EUR 15 Marian DB: Looking back at how the real estate market looked ROMAN semi-central areas like 10-20 years ago, important improvements have been achieved. The bureaucracy is less convoluted, infrastructure Managing Director EUR 18.5 develops at a fast and steady pace and the relationship with local authorities has become more open. However, CA Immo central business district predictability is still an aspect that needs to be addressed. ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 29
market evolution - romania investment reports investment reports market evolution - romania was to overcome some of the hurdles we met in Romania, and gain access to new forms of capital. Mihai PĂDUROIU CEO Romania’s biggest problem is branding – One United Properties we have had so many partners, clients, (Office Division) investors coming here and not believing their eyes, as they have been negatively predisposed by a number of stereotypes From a historical perspective, the Romanian real estate market evolved in and clichés. It is a shame to suffer from a highly positive way and past challenges (e.g., infrastructure) that seemed this unfair perception. insurmountable are now mere distractions along the way. All in all, from our perspective the office market shows great maturity and stability. Globalworth Square is one of the most technologically advanced buildings in Dimitris RAPTIS Investors that make direct contact with the Romanian market are instantly the country, which I am sure does not seduced by the opportunities found here. Bucharest presents competitive come cheap – why prioritize this? advantages that cannot be found anywhere else - the biggest talent pool and the most advantageous tax levels - which makes it by far one of the most attractive People have been talking about smart CEO destinations for investment in Europe. This view is backed by the impressive buildings for some time now, and real number of big players (both investors and tenants) that do business here. estate has honestly speaking been Globalworth Group a dinosaur in terms of embracing technological progress. Strange, given that it is one of the world’s dominant total volume of office transactions industries, with high pressure to Globalworth is a publicly listed evolve. The coronavirus pandemic has in bucharest (sqm GLA) leading real estate company accelerated the way people think about operating across Romania and 400.000 this topic and turned thoughts into action. Poland, that acquires, develops 300.000 and manages commercial 200.000 As an example, at Globalworth Square properties, mainly in the office 100.000 we have touchless access into the segment. 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 building, a simple yet key aspect. And last source: JLL Research but not least, tech is closely interwoven with sustainability by helping us build more energy efficient buildings, from Globalworth employs a long term, lower emissions to car charging stations. In some cases we had to offer “rent here-to-stay vision so it is all the At Globalworth Square we are also holidays”, concessions, deferrals in more important how you choose your producing our own energy through exchange for extensions for the future. We hold about 15-20% of the office market in Bucharest and, at present, we markets. Why Romania and Poland, and rooftop PV panels. Some of the smaller tenants we simply are developing 90,000 sqm of spaces. Ever since we started Forte, our main how do they contrast in your view? helped out. And at the end of the day we goal was to bring a breath of fresh air to the urban landscape because I firmly How badly has the pandemic hit your stayed robust. believe that developers have the responsibility to shape the city in the most Romania is pure legacy, Globalworth’s office business and how does that aesthetically pleasing way possible. founder Ioannis Papalekas was already contrast to your other assets, in the Logistics is a different ball game – we in business here since 2001 and saw a industrial space for instance? have three locations across Romania and Moreover, part of the strategy was to reconsider the commute time spent by market opportunity again in 2012-2013, we are seeing great demand, broadly our tenants and therefore our focus went on to shorten the time spent in traffic. when I also joined him from London. Yes, the office model is currently being from two industries – e-commerce and As a result, we placed most of our office buildings near the neighborhoods Poland was also an obvious choice for questioned, it sits somewhere in the F&B retailing. There is also some pharma where 80% of the employees reside. In this way, not only the North of the city us, as the largest and most sophisticated middle between the badly hit retail/ but the bulk of the demand comes benefits from office buildings, but also the South and the West. market in CEE, we were confident we hotels and the thriving logistics spheres. from the automotive industry. Renault could compete there. Both countries also The impact for us has not been too recently extended their lease in their have key geo-political positions. significant so far, however we needed to facility outside of Bucharest, thanks to have many discussions with our tenants its strategic location close to their main Geo MĂRGESCU As for the differences, some are quite and mitigate risks together. This is where factory. Co-founder & CEO visible – starting with infrastructure, our model helped us, the long term Forte Partners from airports, motorways, rail, where relationships helped negotiate and find Romania still lags considerably behind. common ground. One of the reasons we entered Poland 30 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021 31
market evolution - romania investment reports You describe yourselves as “atypical Sustainability is a big trend nowadays, developers”, what sets you apart from what motivates you to pursue this the crowd more specifically? direction and how do you see it reflecting in the local market? When evaluating a plot of land we always create a masterplan design that shows Sustainability is more than marketing how the finished product will fit into for us, because we seek to invest only in the area. Only when we feel it is going projects that bring quality of life, adding to be a suitable project we move into the measures of sustainability that are financial phase, so we have a backwards actually useful to the users. In residential, method, different from other developers, it is still challenging to implement these that first do the math and then start measures because people are not yet Didier designing. In the end, we build less, but of a much higher quality hence benefitting prepared to pay for them even though they are highly interested in using all BALCAEN both the users of our projects as our profitability, and this approach helped the facilities that come as a result. On the other hand, offices are following us especially during the pandemic. This international standards because they mindset is starting to spread throughout cater to multinational companies, so it’s the market and many of our colleagues common practice to develop sustainable CEO & Co-founder are embracing it. projects in that sector. Speedwell You work in various sectors: Do you have a final message about the residential, office and retail - how do Romanian real estate market based on each of them contribute to your wider your experience here? portfolio? Speedwell is a real estate developer Our MIRO office project, demonstrates that specializes in mixed-use, The goal is to have a mix, but from a that the market offers a Western-grade residential, office and retail projects. financial point of view the foundation is A-class office project with Triple-A They put their mark on state-of-the- definitely the residential sector (60-70% tenants such as KPMG at much higher art buildings like MIRO Office, The of the portfolio) because the product is yields than Western or even other Ivy Residential and Record Park, etc. the least dependent on macro-economic Eastern-European capitals. Therefore factors (yields) in the long-term, given investors get a prime asset with the that Romania is a market of primary best tenants at an unbeatable price. buyers (buying to live, not to invest). We Overlooking the Romanian market is do concentrate our attention on projects therefore no less than a professional with functions that add to the existing error if you’re an (institutional) investor. mix, but always keep a safe foundation based on residential buildings. Interestingly, your work in Romania expands well beyond the capital city. What drew you towards regional markets? We didn’t actually conduct any in-depth “Unknown is Unloved” applies Jan studies, but acted on our instincts and when we identified a good plot of land, to Romania. Many investors DEMEYERE we simply went for it - in Cluj-Napoca, and bankers not familiar with Timisoara or wherever it was located. the market often classify it as Since in Romania regional cities are risky and stay away, without smaller than in Poland, for example, liquidity for commercial projects remains even looking deeper if there is an objective reason for the Architect & Co-founder a point of attention, but if you develop a good product you can always lease and “risk” perception. Speedwell sell it at a good price. 32 ROMANIA & POLAND REAL ESTATE 2021
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