Precious Metals Report 2020 - Everything you need to know about gold, silver, platinum and palladium! - Skeena Resources
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Imprint Table of Contents Disclaimer 02 Table of Contents | Imprint 07 Preface09 Precious metals defy Covid-19 pandemic – especially gold and silver are in demand in times of crisis!..........................................................10 Guest Article by Prof. Dr. Torsten Dennin The fight against the Covid-19 pandemic is causing the national debt to explode. Global debt and the growing loss of confidence in the stability of the Editor financial system are becoming an increasing problem. Why investors should Swiss Resource Capital AG consider precious metals in their long-term asset strategy.���������������������������� 23 Poststr. 1 9100 Herisau, Schweiz Invest with the commodity professionals Interview with Prof. Dr. Torsten Dennin Founder and CEO of Lynkeus Capital LLC.......................................................26 Tel : +41 71 354 8501 Fax : +41 71 560 4271 info@resource-capital.ch www.resource-capital.ch Company profiles Editorial staff Jochen Staiger Amex Exploration��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32 Tim Rödel Bluestone Resources��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 36 Layout/Design Frauke Deutsch Caledonia Mining ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 40 All rights reserved. Reprinting Cardinal Resources������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 44 material by copying in electronic You do not have to be a stock market professional SRC Mining & Special Situations Zertifikat form is not permitted. Condor Gold����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48 to make wise investment decisions. ISIN: DE000LS9PQA9 Editorial Deadline: 04/20/2020 Invest together with Swiss Resource Capital AG and WKN: LS9PQA Discovery Metals ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 52 Asset Management Switzerland AG in the mega Currency: CHF/ Euro* Endeavour Silver���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 56 cover: sverker, adobestock.com trend commodities. Since 05.03.2020 the experts‘ Certificate fee: 0.95 % p.a. page 13: Nils Thies, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) specialist knowledge has been available as a Performance fee: 15 % p.a. First Majestic Silver������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 60 page 16: Mijatovic@shutterstock.com Wikifolio certificate: *Trading in Euro is possible at the Euwax in Stuttgart. page 19: corlaffra@shutterstock.com GoldMining ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 64 page 22: corlaffra@shutterstock.com page 30 Stanislaw Zarychta, unsplash MAG Silver������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 68 Currently the following titles are represented in the SRC Mining & Special Situations Certificate (4/2020): FRANCO NEVADA | BHP BILLI Back Osino Resources���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 72 1: Osisko Mining TON | R.DUTCH SHELL B | MAG SILVER CORP. | ENDEAVOUR SILVER | AGNICO EAGLE | RIO TINTO | TOTAL FINA ELF SA B EO 10 | CALEDONIA 2: Sibanye-Stillwater MINING O.N. | FREE MCMORAN COP | ANGLO AMERICAN | URANIUM ENERGY CORP. | DYNACERT INC. | OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES LTD | Osisko Gold Royalties�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 76 3: © Elionora Henzler 4: ©corlaffra/shutterstock.com SIBANYE STILLWATER LTD | CHEVRON | FIORE GOLD LTD | URANIUM PARTICIPATION CORP. | MAPLE GOLD MINES LTD | ROYAL NICKEL CORP. | Skeena Resources������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 80 NEWMONT CORP. DL 1,60 | BLUESTONE RESOURCES | AURYN RESOURCES INC. | BARRICK GOLD Charts: 04/27/2020 by JS Charts by amCharts CORP. | GOLDMINING INC. | COPPER MOUNTAIN MINING CORP. | MILLENIAL LITHIUM CORP. | ISOENERGY LTD. O.N. | SKEENA RES LTD NEW | AURANIA RES CAD R.S. | ENWAVE. 7
Commodity-TV Preface The whole world of commodities in one App! Dear Readers, Now in its fifth year of publication, we are ally producers with dividends are now first pleased to present you our special report on choice and prospective precious metal pro- precious metals, which follows on from our ducers have enormous leverage on the res- successful Battery Metals and Uranium Re- pective metal price. In this Precious Metals ports. Precious metals have become in- Report we present some interesting compa- dispensable for one‘s own (crisis) prevention nies that are suitable for speculation on rising and asset preservation. Not to be forgotten is precious metal prices. We also want to give the unconditional use of precious metals as a you the necessary basic knowledge by me- store of value and money substitute as well ans of our general part, so that you can make Jochen Staiger is founder and CEO as a hedge for extremely bad times. 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Precious metals defy Covid-19 pandemic – especially gold and silver are in demand in times of crisis! Precious metal investors are still in the pole ced a great surge in demand from the invest- Gold: position, precious metals have so far been among the best performers of all asset clas- ment sector. In the future, this is probably where the greatest opportunities for growth Value retention and inflation protection ses through the Covid 19 crisis, also known are to be expected, as silver is finding its way at the same time as the Corona crisis. into more and more industrial applications. In The price of gold weakened only very briefly addition to the energy sector, the pharma- Gold is a chemical element with the element tion, it occurs on earth predominantly in solid and by the editorial deadline of 20 April 2020 ceutical and medical sectors should be men- symbol Au and the atomic number 79. it can form, i.e. in elementary, metallic form. It can was able to catapult itself back to its pre-cri- tioned here. be worked very well mechanically (moderate be found in primary raw material deposits as sis level. Here it is mainly (impending) fiscal The bird was taken by the lesser known rho- melting temperature) and does not corrode. It gold-bearing rock (gold ore) and in secondary and geopolitical distortions and, associated dium, which within four years climbed from $ is not only rare, but also heavy and its yellow deposits, including soap deposits. Up to 20% with this, a certain desire for security that are 575 to $ 11,500 an ounce. luster is durable, which is why it is considered of the gold mined annually is extracted as a keeping the price of the yellow metal at a In the following, this report will deal exclusi- to be imperishable and is therefore largely by-product, mainly from copper, nickel or consistently high level and are likely to push it vely with the four most common precious me- used for jewelry or in coin or bar form for sto- other precious metal mines. even higher. In the vast majority of currencies, tals gold, silver, platinum and palladium. ring value. Gold is also considered easy to gold has recently traded at all-time highs. In doing so, we will mainly focus on the figu- alloy, which makes it very attractive as a ma- Only a still extremely strong US dollar is (still) preventing gold from reaching a new all-time res from 2019. Reliable forecasts regarding supply and demand can only be made with terial. Supply situation 2019 high. difficulty and with little seriousness for the According to the World Gold Council, in 2019 current year 2020 due to the current Covid-19 [Xe] 4f145d106s1 79 a total of 3,463.7 tonnes of gold was extrac- Au situation, which is characterized by a decline ted from mines and 1,304.1 tonnes were re- in supply as a result of mine closures and si- covered from recycling. Thus, the total gold multaneous declines in demand, especially supply (including recycling) increased by for the mainly industrial metals platinum, pal- about 82 tonnes to 4,767.8 tonnes compared ladium and silver, which is why we want to Melting Point 1337 K to 2018. focus on more medium to long-term pros- Boiling Point 3243 K The main gold mining areas are currently Chi- pects. GOLD na, Australia, Russia, the USA and Canada, which together account for almost half of the total annual production. The former, until Most important characteristics: 2007 absolute leader in gold production, Goldprice US$/oz What are precious metals? Appearance, corrosion resistance, South Africa was only in ninth place in 2018. (Surce: JS by amChart) Palladium too, which in the past few months good processability, good contact Other important gold producing nations are had been pushed up to new record highs of From a purely chemical point of view, preci- Peru, Indonesia, Ghana and Mexico, where up to $ 2,780 an ounce, mainly for speculative ous metals are metals that are resistant to Not only in the form of jewellery or coins, but gold is mainly mined as a by-product from sil- reasons, only had to take a short sinking fee- corrosion, i.e. that are permanently chemical- also in medical applications, gold scores ver mines. ling and recently was already trading above ly stable in a natural environment when expo- points above all with its resistance to corrosi- the $ 2,000 mark again. Demand from the au- sed to air and water. The group of precious on. For example, in dental prosthetics, where tomobile sector (use in petrol catalysts) play- metals primarily includes gold and silver, as additional precious metals such as platinum Gold production increases only ed a major role here. well as the so-called platinum metals plati- are added due to the relatively high softness marginally - gold peak reached?! The situation for platinum is contrary to this. num, palladium, ruthenium, rhodium, osmium of gold. In industry, gold is mainly used in the The increasing discrediting of the diesel engi- and iridium. Mercury is also a precious metal. construction of circuits as an additive (gold From the turn of the millennium until 2019 ne led to a decline in demand for platinum, In addition, there are a number of so-called plating) to wires, printed circuit boards, switch gold production was increasing every year, which is used in diesel catalytic converters. semi-precious metals, including copper. A contacts and connectors. but recently it has been declining more and However, there are signs of a renaissance third group is formed by the so-called short- more. While in 2011, about 2,857 tons of the here. lived radioactive precious metals, which, ho- yellow metal were extracted from the earth Silver, more than half of demand for which is wever, play virtually no role in practice. Occurrence and extraction worldwide, in 2015 the figure was 3,300 tons. an industrial metal, initially had to cope with Since then, production has increased only large price losses but has already been able Gold is very rare in nature. For example, in the marginally to 3,398 tonnes in 2016 and 3,455 to recover. With a gold-silver ratio of 125, the earth‘s crust there are on average only 4 tonnes in 2017, and contrary to all predic- end was near, especially as silver experien- grams of gold per 1,000 tons of rock. In addi- tions, gold production in 2018 increased 10 11
Gold-supply/-demand ticular savings have been made in explorati- plications in smartphones or game consoles, Summary: on, which has meant that hardly any major but above all in the electromobility sector. In Demand at record high – supplies deposits have been discovered in recent ye- view of the incipient electric (mobility) revolu- faltering ars. tion, this should lead to continued strong Added to this is the current corona crisis, growth in demand from the technology sector The supply side will be particularly exciting. A which has brought many mining activities in the future. lack of supplies in the form of high-grade new worldwide to a standstill and will have a discoveries as well as increasingly cost-inten- strong impact on gold production - at least in sive and difficult mining will probably lead not 2020. Conclusion: only to an imminent supply deficit but also to Everything stands or falls with the the need for a higher gold price in order to investment sector – ETF inflows meet demand at all. Added to this - as alrea- recently at record levels dy indicated - are production losses due to Demand situation the current corona-induced shutdowns of Although it is the technology sector that is ex- many mines. A further catalyst for a further Central banks are buying more pected to generate the highest percentage increase in the price of gold is the fact that Gold-supply (blue) and -demand (grey) gold than ever before growth in demand for gold in the coming ye- several important smelters have currently (as (Source: own representation) again slightly to 3,510 tonnes. In 2019, pro- ars, everything stands or falls with the invest- of mid-April 2020) been closed down and th- duction then fell to 3,463.7 tonnes, which The whole thing is „tightened“ - albeit only ment sector. Assuming that the jewellery in- erefore the further processing of gold into could only be offset by an increased recycling marginally at present - by the central banks. dustry will remain at the same level in terms of (smaller) bars is not guaranteed. This is parti- rate. After decades of gold sales, they have been demand as in the past years, it is precisely the cularly important in the case of physical deli- It can now be assumed that the gold peak, back on the buyer side since 2010 and have inflows into gold-deposited ETFs that have very claims of COMEX contracts, as this i.e. the annual gold production has reached recently even recorded record purchases. recorded a large surge in demand since the could catch many sellers on the wrong foot, its peak for the time being. Thus, especially in 2018 and 2019, many cen- end of 2018 and therefore offer the greatest who would then have to cover at any price. tral banks have increased their gold reserves. potential for demand growth. In 2019 alone, Above all Russia, but also Turkey, India, Po- the global ETFs recorded an inflow of gold of The reasons for declining gold land, Egypt, Brazil and Kazakhstan have over 660 tonnes! In the first quarter of 2020 a production are manifold bought a lot of gold in 2018 and 2019. The further 298 tonnes were added, the highest central banks thus increased their gold reser- inflow since 2016 and even an all-time record Several factors contribute to this. ves by 656.2 tonnes in 2018. This was 73% for a quarter in US$! Firstly, more and more deposits are reaching more than in 2017. In 2019 central bank the end of their life. Those that have not yet purchases fell slightly to 650.3 tonnes. This been fully exploited have to be expanded at meant that a large amount of the supply was ever greater expense in order to obtain further taken off the market by the central banks alo- gold-bearing material. Some mines already ne, once again putting them on the demand reach depths of 4,000 metres and more. rather than the supply side. The gold content continues to fall steadily. Currently, gold deposits are still being exploi- ted at an average of just over 1 gram of gold Demand from the jewellery and per tonne of rock (g/t). However, in the case of investment sectors stable – deposits that have not yet been developed, technology sector is growing there are already indications that this mark steadily will fall to below 0.9g/t in a few years‘ time. A third point is the (missing) discovery of new In 2019 there was worldwide demand for deposits. While more than a billion ounces of about 4,355 tonnes of gold. The lion‘s share (Photo: Gold reserves of the Deutsche gold were discovered in the 1990s, only was accounted for by the jewellery sector, Bundesbank slightly more than 600 million ounces were which consumed 2,107 tonnes. In second © Nils Thies, 2017, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) discovered between 2000 and 2014. Since place was the investment sector, which de- then, the new discoveries have collapsed manded about 1,272 tonnes (about 110 ton- once again. This is mainly due to the fact that nes more than in 2018). Demand from the in recent years gold producers have concen- technology sector was strong, reaching 326.6 trated primarily on reducing mining prices tonnes in 2019. This showed that gold is be- due to the ongoing slump in gold prices. Par- coming increasingly popular not only for ap- 12 13
Silver: and the total silver supply (including recy- cling) is expected to decline. This is primarily Silver-supply/ -demand New uses and an undervaluation against gold due to the expected closure of several medi- could soon lead to a price explosion um-sized to large zinc/lead mines and, furthermore, to a huge investment backlog that has accumulated in recent years due to Silver is a chemical element with the element million ounces! In 2018 this trend continued: the weak silver price development. Corres- symbol Ag and the atomic number 47 and be- worldwide production was only 847.8 million ponding silver projects have been put on hold longs to the so-called transition metals. It is a ounces! In 2019 finally a further decline to and only poorly developed. As a result, these soft, easily malleable heavy metal with the 835.5 million ounces. With an annual produc- projects are likely to be brought into producti- highest electrical conductivity of all elements tion of 180 million ounces (equivalent to on only after a long delay. In addition, recy- and the highest thermal conductivity of all around 20% of the total worldwide producti- cling has been declining since 2011 and in metals. It is precisely these properties that on) Mexico takes first place among the pro- 2019 was only about 170 million ounces - Silver-supply (blue) and make it an indispensable metal for industrial ducing nations, followed by Peru and China. compared to 233 million ounces in 2011. Silver-demand (grey) applications. These three countries are thus together res- Demand situation (Source: own representation) ponsible for about half of the global silver pro- duction. Silver companies set the Silver with hermaphroditic [Kr] 4d105s1 47 priorities on cost savings function Ag Melting Point 961,78° C Silver is above all one thing: by-product! Only about 30% of annual production comes The development of the mine pipeline also stalled in the past years with weak silver prices because the silver companies had to deal primarily with getting their cost structure While gold is mainly used as an investment, to maintain value and in the form of jewellery (less than 10% of annual demand comes from industry), silver has a kind of hermaphro- Boiling Point 2210°C from pure silver mines or mines where silver is under control. The high silver prices, primarily ditic function. This means that recently about SILVER the primary raw material. In contrast, the ma- in the years 2010 to 2012, ensured that mines 56% of the total demand for silver came from jority (70%) comes from mines in which silver were also put into operation that had all-in industry, while the rest was mainly demanded is only a by-product, i.e. primarily from zinc/ costs of over US$ 20 an ounce. These quickly by investors in the form of bars and coins and lead mines, but also from copper and gold became unprofitable after 2012. Instead of by the jewellery industry. But silver is much more than that: unlike gold, mines. closing them, however, the companies have it is consumed, with the sheer number of pos- been trying to keep costs down ever since. sible applications growing steadily with There was little time and even less money left Main fields of application: technical progress. In addition to be an indus- Weak base metal prices cause for expensive exploration and development Electronics, alloys, photography, trial metal, silver is also a precious metal. Like silver production to stagnate and programs. In the meantime, the vast majority photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals/ gold, it is basically money and serves to overall supply to decline of companies have been able to reduce their medicine maintain its value. It can also be seen as a costs to a tolerable and, for the most part, kind of hedge against advancing inflation. This great dependence primarily on base me- profitable level. Its peak values for important properties (hig- tals such as lead, zinc and copper has recent- hest electrical conductivity of all metals, high ly led to weakening base metal prices and the thermal conductivity and pronounced optical associated closure of mines or at least a re- Recycling and central bank reflectivity) make silver indispensable, espe- duction in the corresponding base metal pro- sales should not contribute to an cially in the fields of electrics, electronics and Supply situation duction also having a negative effect on the increase in supply optics or photography. These areas also ac- production of the by-product silver. Thus, count for a good half of the total industrial Mexico, Peru and China price declines - above all for copper, but also A further decline in supply is also to be ex- demand of around 544 million ounces. In ad- are leading producing nations for lead - in recent years ensured that silver pected in silver recycling. Sales by the central dition, there are applications as silver alloys production only increased marginally and has banks have hardly played a role since 2011 (with copper, zinc, tin, nickel, indium), which According to „The Silver Institute“, global sil- even been declining since 2016. In the co- and should not lead to a significant increase are used in electrical engineering and solde- ver production in 2015 reached a record high ming years, silver production is expected to in silver supply in the coming years either. ring technology as solder alloys (so-called of around 892.9 million ounces. In 2016, pro- stagnate and, due to corona, even decline brazing), contact materials (especially in re- duction declined for the first time in many ye- further, especially as the output of new mines lays) and conductive material (for example as ars. In 2016, 892.3 million ounces of silver will have difficulty compensating for the loss capacitor coatings). Since 2011, the photo- were extracted from the earth‘s crust. In 2017 of zinc/lead mines. From today‘s point of voltaic sector has also been playing an im- there was even a real collapse to only 863.4 view, silver production is expected to decline portant role in the demand for silver. This has 14 15
Summary: Platinum: Supply deficit again, great potenti- al to catch up with gold Irreplaceable in the industry, the next upswing is in sight In the silver sector there was for years a slight overnight supply that turned back into a sa- turated supply deficit of 50.4 million ounces in Platinum is considered by investors to be an sector. Platinum is also used in alloys, for 2019. All in all, despite the corona crisis, glo- absolute rarity and at the same time extre- glass production (melting crucibles), in the bal demand for silver should rise again in the mely mysterious. Viewed in a purely sober electrical sector in resistors and for medical coming years. In addition to expected rising way, platinum is a chemical element with the applications and equipment. Silverprice US$/oz ETP inflows and further physical demand, a element symbol Pt and the atomic number Another large field of application is the jewel- (Surce: JS by amChart) stabilised in recent years at a demand of partly drastic increase in demand is expected 78. lery industry, where platinum is often alloyed around 100 million ounces per year. China, in from the jewellery industry as well as from se- with other metals, mainly gold. The fourth lar- particular, wants to strongly expand the share veral industrial sectors such as photovoltaics, ge area is the investment sector. [Xe] 4f145d96s1 78 Pt of photovoltaic capacity. The Middle King- touch screens and displays, but especially dom alone wants to achieve 120 gigawatts of also from the medical and pharmaceutical cumulative photovoltaic capacity by 2021. sectors. On the supply side, the same applies Occurrence and extraction This means that more and more silver will be as for gold: Most primary silver producers bound in corresponding solar modules for at have concentrated primarily on reducing mi- Platinum is found in solid form, i.e. in elemen- Melting Point 1768° C least 20 years! In future, the pharmaceutical ning prices in recent years due to a persistent Boiling Point 3827°C tary form in nature. Metallic platinum (plati- and medical sectors in particular are likely to slump in silver prices. Particular savings were num soaps) is practically no longer mined to- trigger a further, greater surge in demand. made in exploration, which has led to the fact PLATINUM day. Although a large proportion of the plati- Since silver has an antibacterial and - current- that in recent years virtually no major deposits num mined is extracted from primary deposits ly particularly important - antiviral effect, it is have been discovered. And price weaknesses in a few places, extraction is becoming in- already regarded as a possible salutary agent in several base metals also meant that the de- creasingly important as a by-product in the in medical and pharmacological applications. velopment of mines that extract silver as a Most important properties: production of non-ferrous metals (copper and by-product was initially put on hold. Forgeable, ductile, corrosion nickel). This is where the platinum group me- There is also an enormous potential to catch resistant tals are produced as a by-product of nickel Physical demand recently higher up with gold, which is reflected in a record refining. again gold-silver ratio of over 110. It has an extremely high density and at the same time is very easy to forge and stretch. Physical silver demand reached a record high Its grey-white colour has always fascinated of around 1.0735 billion ounces in 2013 and fell from an extremely high level to around 966 people, probably also because platinum has a remarkable resistance to corrosion and the- Supply situation million ounces by 2018. In 2019, silver de- refore does not tarnish. Due to its high dura- South Africa, Zimbabwe, the USA mand rose again significantly to 1.0735 billion bility, tarnish resistance and rarity, platinum is and Russia are the leading produ- ounces, to the old record level, mainly due to therefore particularly suitable for the manu- cing nations a revived investment sector. Thus, demand for facture of high-quality jewellery. coins and bars increased by 20.4 million oun- Extensive and noteworthy primary platinum ces to 186.1 million ounces from 2018 to mining is only found in the South African Bus- 2019. In contrast, the global silver ETPs, Almost infinite possibilities of use hveld Complex, the Stillwater Complex in which still had to cope with outflows of 22.3 Montana/USA and in Russia. Over 73% of the million ounces in 2018, recorded a net inflow Platinum finds its way into a whole range of platinum mined worldwide in 2019 came from of 81.7 million ounces in 2019. This trend ap- different applications. By far the most com- South African mines. This was followed by pears to continue in 2020. Silver ETPs recor- mon use of platinum is in the automotive in- Russia with about 10.8%, Zimbabwe with 7% ded an inflow of over 70.5 million ounces in dustry, where it is used in the form of automo- and North America with 6%. All in all, plati- the first three and a half months of 2020 alone! tive catalytic converters. In addition to the num mining is a relatively small sector, as only Demand from the jewellery sector fell mini- classic diesel oxidation catalysts, platinum is around 6.02 million ounces were mined in mally from 2018 to 2019 by 1.8 to 201.3 milli- Like gold, silver is in principle money and serves to also increasingly being used in catalysts in 2019, for example. on ounces, while demand for other silverware maintain value and protect against inflation. fuel cells, which could be an enormous de- fell by 5.6 to 59.8 million ounces. (Source: Mijatovic@shutterstock.com) mand driver in the future. The second major area of application in industry is the chemical 16 17
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