Pragmatic Adaptation: American Surrender and Regional Acceptance After Taliban's Takeover of Afghanistan Future Briefs
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Pragmatic Adaptation:
American Surrender and Regional Acceptance After Taliban’s
Takeover of Afghanistan
Future Briefs Issue 576, 17 Aug 2021
Ousted Afghan president Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan on August 15th when the Tal-
iban reached the outskirts of the capital Kabul. At the time, a source close to Taliban
stressed that the two sides reached an agreement whereby Ghani should step down
and hand over power to a transitional administration.
While the United States and the European Union White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that the
might well consider the use of sanctions as a weap- US Administration does not have the luxury of just
on against the Taliban, if the movement does not live feeling disappointed by the declining performance of
up to its commitment not to target US and European the Afghan army.
citizens leaving Afghanistan, it should be noted that
The assertions are clear signs that Washington
most of Afghanistan’s neighbors expected the col-
blames the Afghan government. Blinken spoke in the
lapse of the Afghan government – although not this
same spirit reiterating that “the idea that the status
fast- and even began to open up to the Taliban.
quo could have been maintained by keeping our forc-
Irreversible US Withdrawal es there I think is simply wrong.”
The United States defended its decision to pull out Clearly, US military commanders expected the fall
of Afghanistan rebuffing criticism both at home and of the Afghan government due to chronic issues
abroad. It reiterated that kept forces in Afghanistan that have never been addressed. These include
twice as long as the Soviets. The US Secretary of State deep-rooted corruption, Kabul’s inability to pay sala-
Antony Blinken said remaining in Afghanistan is “sim- ries to pay salaries of troops and police officers for
ply not in the national interest.” He added that the US several months. On top of this came the defection of
succeeded in the mission of reducing attacks on its troops sent to the fronts because they were left with-
soil and interests. out enough food and water and even arms.
The US withdrawal will leave wide repercussions both Realizing, amid this situation, that even if the US
regionally and internationally. troops remained there for additional years will nei-
Pragmatic Adaptation: American Surrender and Regional Acceptance After Taliban’s Takeover of Afghanistan،
Future Briefs, Issue 576,17 Aug 2021, Abu Dhabi, Future for Advanced Research & Studies.
| 1
FUTURE ASSESSMENTS
ther resolve the issue, nor prevent the Afghan army bers insist on sending them back so as they don’t get
from crumbling, US President Joe Biden thought that the wrong message that they can be accommodated.
the best option was to withdraw the troops immedi-
Europe has shortage of tools to influence the Taliban,
ately.
especially after the departure of the US troops. That
It is worth noting that the former administration of is why the EU may seek again to manage this issue
President Donald Trump signed a deal with the Tal- in cooperation with Turkey, and through offering a
iban in Qatar in 2020, which laid out a roadmap for package of economic assistance to accommodate the
the complete withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan, refugees within Turkey and prevent them from mov-
if the Taliban honors its commitments including not ing ahead to Europe.
to turn Afghanistan’s soil into a haven for terrorist or-
European countries are also expected to wield sanc-
ganizations. But the Biden Administrations ignored
tions. The European Union’s foreign policy chief Jo-
this provision and pushed for withdrawal at any cost.
sep Borrell, said in a statement on August 12th that
The result was that, according to the United Nations, “if power is taken by force and an Islamic Emirate
Afghanistan is now haven to some 10000 terrorists re-established, the Taliban would face non-recog-
from al-Qaeda, ISIS and other terror groups. nition, isolation, lack of international support.” But
despite this EU’s threat, and even if the EU carries it
European Concern Over Afghan
out, it would not be serious enough for the Taliban to
Refugee Influx
prompt them respond to European demands.
Europe’s concerns over Afghanistan are stoked by
Backing Pakistan’s Gains
two major issues: terrorism and refugees. For Europe,
the issue of refugees poses the most serious threat, Islamabad has been the main supporter of the Talib-
because Afghan refugees already started to flow to an after the fall of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s
neighboring countries, especially Iran, in an attempt and the civil war in the early 1990s. Afghanistan’s
to reach Turkey and from there to Europe. neighbor also provided a haven for the Taliban Lead-
ership Council, or Shura council, which is still based in
The issue of immigration is among the causes of
Pakistan. The families of several Taliban commanders
deep divisions among the European Union members.
and soldiers still live in Pakistan’s western provinces
While some members, such as France, Germany and
to date.
the Netherlands, suspended repatriation of Afghans
whose asylum applications were rejected, other mem- Additionally, Pakistan was among the three states
2 | Issue 576 17 AUG 2021American Surrender and Regional Acceptance After Taliban’s Takeover of Afghanistan
that recognized the Taliban regime when it captured Beijing’s source of concern is the borderline along
the Afghan capital city in 1996, and even further bol- China’s Xinjiang, a majority Muslim region, where it
stered ties with the movement to confront India’s in- fears that separatist Uyghurs will use Afghanistan to
fluence in the region. Pakistan extended its rule even launch attacks. For their part, the China vowed not to
further to convince the Taliban to engage in talks with interfere in the internal affairs of Afghanistan.
the former US administration in 2020.
Relations between China and the Taliban began sev-
While the Taliban was making its swift advance and eral years ago through Pakistani mediation. Accord-
capturing major cities in the Afghan provinces, the Af- ing to China’s considerations, good relations with the
ghan president claimed that Pakistan allowed more Taliban will pave the way for further expanding the
than 10000 jihadis to cross the border into Afghani- Belt and Road Initiative into Afghanistan, through the
stan to back the Taliban. He also accused Islamabad Central Asian republics. Taliban view China as a highly
of not placing sufficient pressure on the Taliban to important source of economic investments and sup-
accept the course of peaceful settlement. Pakistan, port, whether directly or through Pakistan.
normally, denied providing such support, but the
India Coping with the Taliban
United Nations’ report mentioned earlier emphasiz-
es that militants from Pakistan’s Taliban supported India was among the first regional powers to an-
Afghanistan’s Taliban, and gives credibility to Kabul’s nounce support to the government led by Ashraf
allegations. Ghani, and before that, in 2001, was among the first
countries to welcome Washington’s ousting of the
On the other hand, Pakistan refused to allow Wash-
Taliban. Despite this, it opened official communica-
ington to use its military bases for launching strikes
tion channels with the Taliban for the first time in July
against the Taliban after the withdrawal of US troops.
2021 in anticipation of the collapse of the Afghan gov-
Pakistan’s refusal represents its indirect support to
ernment.
the Taliban.
Currently, India seeks to coordinate with Iran to face
It should be noted that Pakistan will move to further
the developments in Afghanistan especially because
bolster its strategic gains after the Taliban took over
the two countries share concerns over the Taliban’s
all of Afghanistan. That is, in addition to having a loyal
takeover of Kabul. As a result, New Delhi recently in-
government in Kabul, Pakistan will be capable of back-
tensified consultations with Tehran.
ing the Kashmiri resistance of which some groups
were based in Afghanistan. This is likely to earn Paki- Cautious Russian Cooperation
stan more instruments of pressure against India.
Moscow is trying to present itself as a guarantor of
Besides security and strategic considerations, the security in Central Asia following the US withdraw-
geo-economic calculations factor in. Taliban’s takeo- al from Afghanistan. That is why the Russian army is
ver of Afghanistan will ruin India’s plans to connect working on expanding its presence at its military base
the country to the International North–South Trans- in Tajikistan, while also conducting joint military war-
port Corridor, an ambitious project to connect Central games with both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to counter
Asia to Mumbai seaport through Iran. Furthermore, any potential security threats posed by terrorist or-
Pakistan, in collaboration with China, will be able to ganizations operating in Afghanistan.
connect Afghanistan to the Belt and Road Initiative.
Despite its concerns over the rising danger of terror-
Potential Chinese Cooperation ism coming from Afghanistan, Russia is working to
establish ties with the Taliban, which Russian Foreign
China is expected to recognize the Taliban after the
Minister Sergey Lavrov described as “wise people”.
movement took control of Afghanistan. A delegation
This indicates that the movement is keen on showing
from the Taliban visited China on July 28th and reas-
its ability to rule Afghanistan and reach understand-
sured Beijing that Afghanistan will not be a launchpad
ings with neighboring states that guarantee their se-
for attacks against China as the two countries share a
curity.
76 kilometers of land border, mainly towering heights
without any border crossings. Turkey’s Search for Bargaining Chips
17 AUG 2021 Issue 576 | 3FUTURE ASSESSMENTS
During intensified talks with the United States, Ankara to stay in Afghanistan.
offered to guard and run Kabul International Airport
Besides, in light of the Taliban’s success in taking over
after the departure of the US troops so as to help
all of Afghanistan within three months, as expected
protect US and other Western diplomatic missions in
by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Ankara will
Kabul as well as American intelligence agents and mil-
not be able to play a role in Afghanistan.
itary commanders.
Ankara offered to play this role in exchange for dip-
Iran’s Management of Developments
lomatic and logistic support, according to the Turkish
in Afghanistan
president. In its bid, Turkey relies on several factors. Tehran dealt with the development in Afghanistan
Most importantly, it has good relations with some on two levels. On the diplomatic level, former Iranian
former warlords, like The Express Tribune Gulbuddin Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif previously
Hekmatyar, leader of Hezb-e-Islami of Afghanistan, met several times with a number of Taliban leaders in
the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Ab- Teran. Member of the Iranian parliament Ahmed Na-
dul Rashid Dostum, leader of the political party Jun- deri described the Taliban as “the noble movement”,
bish-e Milli and an influential popular figure of the while the Iranian foreign ministry, on the eve of Tali-
Uzbek community. ban’s capture of Herat on August 13th, stressed that
Additionally, Ankara reliance on supporting Islama- the Taliban is fully committed to the security of Iran’s
bad was evidenced by a visit to Pakistan on August Consulate General, diplomats and staff in Mazar-i-
11th by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar where Sharif.
he asked Pakistan to place pressure on the Taliban On the military level, Iran previously involved itself
to accept Turkey’s offer to secure Kabul Internation-
in providing military support to the Taliban in a bid
al Airport. Moreover, in a bid to establish peace in
to put the American presence in Afghanistan un-
Afghanistan, Erdogan offered to meet the supreme
der pressure. Moreover, Tehran formed a number
leader of the Taliban, Hibatullah Akhundzada.
of shi’ite militias comprising fighters from the Shiite
The Taliban turned down the request for Erdogan’s Hazaras. These include the Shaheed Baba Mazari, a
meeting with its leader, and, referring to Turkish forc- 5000-strong militia, according to former foreign min-
es, reiterated its rejection to allow any foreign troops ister Zarif.
Before that, Iran created the Liwa Fatemiyoun militant group and deployed them to
take part in battles in Syria. Additionally, Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, recently visited the Syrian city of Boukamal
several times, where the Liwa Fatimiyoum deploys. According to assessments, the
reason behind these visits is Iran’s plans to move the militants to Afghanistan.
ABOUT FARAS
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in Abu Dhabi, U.A.E. FARAS seeks to enrich public dialogue, support decision-making and enhance academic
research pertaining to future trends that currently constitute a real problem in the Middle East region. In light
of instability and unpredictability, the overarching goal of FARAS is to help ward off future shocks regarding
these developments.
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