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Post
Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences
and economic activities in the European Union
European Commission
Submitted to the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and
Equal Opportunities
Executed by:
TNO Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research
SEOR Erasmus University Rotterdam
ZSI Centre for Social Innovation
DG EMPL project VC/2007/0866
Post
This report is published as part of a series of forward-looking sector studies on New Skills and New
Jobs in the frame of the project Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and
Economic Activities in the European Union.
This publication is commissioned under the European Community Programme for Employment and
Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013).
This programme is managed by the Directorate-General for Employment, social affairs and equal
opportunities of the European Commission. It was established to financially support the implemen-
tation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment and social affairs area, as set out
in the Social Agenda, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Lisbon Strategy goals in
these fields.
The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appro-
priate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and
EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.
PROGRESS mission is to strengthen the EU contribution in support of Member States’ commitment.
PROGRESS will be instrumental in:
1. providing analysis and policy advice on PROGRESS policy areas;
2. monitoring and reporting on the implementation of EU legislation and policies in PROGRESS
policy areas;
3. promoting policy transfer, learning and support among Member States on EU objectives and
priorities; and
4. relaying the views of the stakeholders and society at large
For more information see:
http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/progress/index_en.html
The information contained in this publication does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of
the European Commission.
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European Commission
Post
Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences
and economic activities in the European Union
Executive Summary
The full study is available under the link
http://ec.europa.eu/restructuringandjobs
European Commission
Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities
Unit F3
Manuscript completed in 2009Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held
responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication.
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© European Communities, 2009
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.Preface
Education and of society and the economy, as a
training, in the means to increased competitive-
context of a life- ness and growth, as well as to
long learning greater social cohesion, in Europe.
perspective, are
an indispensable This is more important than ever in
means for pro- the current situation of crisis that
moting adaptability and employabi will undoubtedly lead to substan-
lity, active citizenship, personal and tial changes in economic activities
professional fulfilment. in Europe coming years.
Investment in human capital With this in mind, the Commission
through better education, and the has elaborated a set of analysis of
development of skills and compe- emerging competences in 18 sec-
tences should be increased. It is tors. Those analysis are available
important to anticipate skills needs to all economic, social and profes-
— and also skills gaps — which are sional organisations, educations
emerging in the European labour and training institutions, etc. They
market, as well as to improve the can help them to refine their stra
matching of knowledge, skills tegies and to engage into forward-
and competences with the needs looking actions.
Robert Verrue
Director-General, Employment,
Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities DG
3Post Aims and methodology The renewed Lisbon strategy and by a number of other initiatives over European Employment strategy the oncoming year and beyond. The stress the need for Europe to place current economic crisis calls for the more emphasis on a better antici- reinforcement of policies aimed at pation of skill needs together with developing the employability of the the need to reduce labour markets workforce. This project fits within mismatches. These policies aims this policy objective. also at minimising social costs and facilitating adaptation during 18 sector studies, restructuring processes through one methodology a better anticipation and positive management of change. Globalisa- The results of this study aim to serve tion, technological change, climate as a guide in launching further EU change and demographic develop- and other actions to promote the ments (including ageing and migra- strategic management of human tion) in that respect pose huge chal- resources and to foster stronger lenges, comprising both risks and synergies between innovation, opportunities. In that context, the skills and jobs, taking into account Commission has launched recently the global context and encourag- the New Skills for New Jobs initiative ing adaptations to national and together with other related Euro- regional level. pean projects aimed at identifying future job and skills needs using To validate, add and complement quantitative modelling approaches. the findings of the project and While having advantages of robust- to make sure that results are dis- ness, stakeholders as well as the seminated as broadly as possible European Commission identified a across Europe, relevant stakehold- clear need for complementary more ers including European social part- qualitative forward-looking analy- ners, other services from the Com- sis. Consequently, the European mission with the expertise in the Commission commissioned in 2007 sectors analysed, representatives a series of 18 future-oriented sector from the European Parliament, studies (horizon 2020) on skills and the European Economic and Social jobs following a uniform, qualita- Committee, the Committee of the tive methodology. Results of these Regions, Eurofound and Cedefop studies have become available in were involved in the project from summer 2009, and will be followed the beginning. 4
Aims and methodology
Sectors Covered
Automotive industry
Defence
Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products
Non-metallic materials (glass, cement, ceramic…)
Electromechanical engineering
Computer, electronic and optical products
Building of ships and boats
Furniture and others
Electricity, gas, water & waste
Distribution, trade
Hotels, restaurants, catering and related services
Transport
Post and telecommunications
Financial services (bank, insurance and others)
Health and social work
Other services, maintenance and cleaning
A standard predefined methodol- for emerging competences and
ogy was developed by a panel of occupation profiles in terms of
experts under the direction of Prof jobs expanding, transforming or
Maria João Rodrigues and applied declining, and their implications
to all 18 studies to ensure consis- in terms of strategic choices and
tency and comparability of the subsequent recommendations for
results, the studies being produced companies, education and train-
by different contractors. ing systems, social partners and
public authorities at all levels. This
Based on the basic methodologi- foresight methodology implies an
cal framework, each contractor approach combining desk research
executed 7 defined steps, starting and expert knowledge.
with the mapping of main trends,
key drivers of change, leading to At the end of each sector study a
scenarios of plausible evolution final European workshop for the
and their implication for employ- sector was organised by the Com-
ment at the year 2020 time horizon, mission to validate results as well
the identification of implications as refine recommendations. In
5Post
addition to European Commis- of all sections were summarised
sion and Eurofound staff, about 20 in a SWOT analysis and were used
experts per workshop from indus- as input to identify key drivers.
try, academia and sector organi-
sations including workers and Drivers of change
employers’ representatives with
a sound knowledge of jobs and On the basis of the mapping of
skills were invited to comment and the sector, a set of key drivers,
provide recommendations to the sector specific or not, was identi-
report as part of the methodology. fied. Literature review and expert
knowledge of the sector were
Brief description of then used to define a conclu-
the methodological steps sive list of sector-specific drivers.
Drivers were classified as exog-
Mapping enous or endogenous depend-
ing on the ability for the sector’s
The main purpose of this analy- stakeholders and policymakers
sis was to provide factual back- to influence them. These lists of
ground to identify key drivers drivers were also discussed in the
used in the subsequent scenario experts’ p anel workshops.
development. Consequently, the
Report analysed recent sector Qualitative scenarios and impli-
developments and trends and, at cations for employment trends
the same time, depicts the current
state of play in the sector with an The set of selected sectoral drivers
emphasis on innovation, skills of change served as an input to
and jobs. It was based on an anal- develop scenarios for the evolution
ysis of available time series data of the sector and implications for
and relevant existing studies. It different occupations (composition
analysed 1) structural character- of employment / emerging compe-
istics (production, value added, tences) in the period 2008 to 2020.
employment in various dimen-
sions, and related factors); 2) Implications of scenarios and
the value chain; 3) technological emerging competences
change and innovation; 4) trade
and international competition as Scenarios were built to assess the
well as 5) regulation. The results implications for the level (absolute
6Aims and methodology
demand) and composition (relative were looked at in this step of the
demand compared to other job methodology, focussing more
functions) of employment of dif- particularly on the specific role
ferent job functions by 2020. New to be played by sectoral organi-
and emergent skills required by dif- sations, educational institutions
ferent job functions were identified and governments such as a stron-
based on the analysis of the evolu- ger cooperation between stake-
tion of past data on employment holders or an increased flexibility
by occupation, on the analysis from through modularisation of educa-
the present situation and of experts’ tion and training.
comments during the workshop.
The focus was on identifying and Recommendations
describing key and critical com-
petences for the future for each of Each sector study contains spe-
the major occupational function in cific recommendations to the
relation to the different scenarios sector. However, with the studies
elaborated. These formed the basis analysing Europe as a whole, the
for the strategic choices identified recommendations remain gen-
in a next step. eral and need a follow-up at the
national and regional level. The
Strategic choices for companies to intention of the project especially
meet emergent competence needs in the follow up phase is to use the
results to stimulate stakeholders
Each sector study assessed possible at lower territorial levels (national
strategic choices in terms of feasi- / regional) to work out results in
bility and actor involvement. The more details, repeat and adapt this
options comprised recruiting work- exercise to local needs rather than
ers from other sectors, countries, providing standardised solutions.
recruiting graduates, re-training Some general recommendations
employed workers as well as chang- call for an intensified co-operation
ing work organisation. between relevant stakeholders, the
need to invest strongly in human
Specific implications capital, more standardised regu-
for education and training lations, enhanced VET to increase
social mobility and coordinated
Options to improve or to adapt National and European Vocational
education and training systems Qualifications.
7Post
The post sector – main characterisation
The post sector comprises postal communication (e-mail, Internet)
services (‘national post activities’) and doing business (B2B; B2C; e-bill-
and courier activities. It includes ing, e-banking) have importantly
activities such as pickup, transport altered the sector, and have led to
and delivery of letters and parcels new products and new demand,
as well as the use of the universal most importantly for express par-
service infrastructure (including cels. Post services have gradually
retail locations, sorting and process- shifted from an industry based on
ing facilities) and carrier routes to two-way communication (mail and
deliver the mail. An important dif- parcels) to an industry rendering
ference exists between companies transportation (parcels, packages,
with a universal service obligation freight) and advertising services.
for specific mail items such as letters Liberalisation and IT developments
and other companies with no such have stimulated competition, have
obligation. Universal Service Provid- enabled the entry of new com-
ers (USPs), have to provide services petitors (express companies) and
nationwide for all customers. The have increased overall efficiency
‘other’ companies deliver primarily in the sector. USPs and traditional
express parcels, a service not related mail and parcel services have faced
to universal mail service. decreases but new services (e.g.
hybrid mail; advertising/direct
The post sector is characterized by mail) and express companies have
strong change and dynamics. The shown strong growth.
huge increase in IT-based ways of
8Main economic and employment trends
Main economic and
employment trends
Value added of the post and tele- EU economy (2.3%) as a whole dur-
coms sectors combined amounted ing the period 1995-2006. Most of
to €307 bn for the EU-27 in 2006, this growth, again, was observed in
with the bulk of value added being telecoms. The NMS almost showed
generated by the telecoms sector. double digit annual growth of
Value added in post amounted to 9.6%, three times as much as over-
€59.6 bn in 2004, of which almost all GDP growth.
two thirds were generated by
national post activities (USPs) and About 40,000 enterprises were
one third by courier activities (Euro- active in the post sector, of which
stat, 2008). USPs in the EU showed 37,000 in courier activities. Alto-
below world average growth in the gether, they employed 1.94 mil-
period 1995-2000, but much higher lion people or 0.89% of overall EU
growth in 2000-2006. The express employment in 2006. Almost 81% of
industry, the main competitor of all jobs in the sector were based in
USPs after liberalisation, is one of the EU-15. Two thirds of total sector
Europe’s fastest growing sectors, employment was in national postal
with a yearly turnover growth of activities. Employment in post in
12% in 1998-2003. Although still the EU grew with 1.7% annually
small compared to its ‘old’ EU-15 during the period 2000-2006, and
counterpart, the express indus- in the New Member States even
try has risen fivefold in the new with 2.7%. Most of this growth was
Member States (NMS) during the in courier services, with the express
same period. Value added annual sector showing an employment
growth of the post and telecoms growth of 13% per year during the
sector together was - with 5.6% - period 1998-2003.
more than twice the growth of the
Employment, state-of-play 2006 and changes 2000-2006
Post and courier Level 2006 Annual Share in EU Change in
activities (times 1,000) growth share
EU 1 944 1.7 100 0
EU 15 1 718 1.6 88 -1
NMS 225 2.7 12 1
Source: Eurostat/TNO. Post and courier services: NACE 64.1.
9Post
The majority of firms (97.2%) in the only 7.7%, respectively 4.8% of all
post and telecoms sector together employment, even though their
is small firms employing less than share has been increasing with 2.5
50 employees. 1.9% are medium- and 2.3% points during the period
sized firms and only 0.9% are large 1995-2006. Large firms account for
firms with more than 250 employ- 87.5% of employment, however
ees. However, small firms and with a decreasing share.
medium-sized firms account for
Employment trends by job function: shares (2006) and changes in
shares (in%), 2000-2006
Post and Shares, 2006 Changes in shares, 2000-2006
telecommunications
EU15 NMS EU EU15 NMS EU
Managers 9 9 9 -2 1 -2
Engineers 8 9 8 1 4 1
Other professionals 17 18 17 -8 4 -6
Clerks 40 47 41 1 2 1
Service workers 2 3 2 -2 -4 -2
Electronic equipment 5 5 5 2 -5 1
mechanics
Craft workers. plant 7 5 7 7 -3 6
operators. drivers
Elementary 12 4 11 1 2 1
occupations
Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey/TNO
The impact of IT on substitution of express companies), other pro-
(postal mail by Internet, by e-mail fessionals (i.e. sales & marketing),
and by mobile messages), on engineers and IT professionals, and
e-business (parcels) and on adver- sorting staff and mail carriers (see
tising obviously affects the skills Table above: both drivers and ele-
mix. Most jobs in post are in the mentary occupations). The share
categories ‘clerks’ (administrative of women in overall employment
and sales personnel in, for exam- of post and telecoms combined is
ple, post offices and back-offices 36% in the EU-15 and 53% in the
10Main economic and employment trends
NMS. Almost half of all employees were achieved in the decrease of
is younger than 40 years. Low edu- the number of employees needed
cated workers in post and telecoms to staff the sorting centres as a
are almost all found in post. By much larger share of letters and
2000 the percentage of employees parcels are sorted mechanically
in USPs without qualification was nowadays. Other changes apply
57%. For other operators this share to sales & marketing professionals
is with 43% also substantial even (decreasing in EU-15 and increas-
though it decreased strongly, down ing in NMS), technicians (increasing
from 55% in 1995. Improved and in EU-15, strong decrease in NMS)
new technologies have allowed and engineers and IT professionals
companies to increase efficiency (a gradual upward change in the EU
of their logistics processes dra- as a whole).
matically. Most efficiency gains
Employment by gender, age and education: post and telecoms,
2000-2006
EU EU 15 NMS
Level Change Level Change Level Change
Women 39 1 36 0 53 -4
Age < 40 48 -4 48 -4 54 3
Age 40 – 50 30 0 30 0 27 -4
Age > 50 22 4 22 4 19 1
Low education 21 -4 25 -2 4 -4
Mid education 57 2 52 -1 71 -5
High education 22 2 23 3 25 9
Entrepreneurs 3 n.a. 2 n.a. 4 n.a.
Definition Level % Total Level % Total Level % Total
2006 change % 2006 change % 2006 change %
2000-2006 2000-2006 2000-2006
Source: TNO/Alphametrics based on Eurostat Labour Force Survey
11Post Liberalisation and technological to more-IT intensive production progress have resulted in a reduc- and newer services the nature of tion in the number of staff employed the business has changed to more in traditional postal services and a consultancy-type and technology- change in the composition of the driven services, requiring more labour force, with more part-time high skilled labour. Basic IT skills jobs and less full-time jobs. The shift have become more important for in job and skills structure reflects a operators and postmen; advanced change in technologies (automat- IT skills have become more impor- ed sorting, automation, Internet, tant for technical and professional IT), markets (packages and freight, operators. However, IT skills are not new services) and business mod- even the most important skills to els (competition from new com- be acquired, as will be shown in the petitors but also from ICT and new section on scenario implications. media companies). With the shift 12
SWOT Analysis and Identification of Main Drivers
SWOT Analysis and
Identification of Main Drivers
The Strengths-Weaknesses-Oppor- ifferentiation was made between
d
tunities-Threats (SWOT) analysis exogenous drivers (drivers that
and the expert-based search for form a “given” at sector level)1 and
main drivers of change both yield endogenous drivers (drivers that
important building bricks for the can be influenced at the sector lev-
design and further elaboration el, for instance by national or Euro-
of the scenarios (see Table SWOT pean policy-making, or by collec-
and Table Main Drivers). A further tive effort from within the sector).
SWOT Post Sector
Strengths Weaknesses
• Stable demand (might go down in future) • Old culture incumbents
• New companies act as initiators • Universal service provision
• Dense network • Oligopoly (potent players drive the sector)
• New IT technologies •License obligations (entry barrier)
• Diversification of job profiles • Enhanced automation leads to lower-
• Trusted brands quality-lower-paid jobs
• Universal service provision
Opportunities Threats
• Liberalisation • Security problems
• IT • Less interesting jobs due to insecurity
• New products and services • Relocation of enterprises
• Diversification of products and services • Increasing regulation – acting as a barrier
• Growth new EU members and global to growth if unclear
growth
• Transparent, long term and foreseeable
regulation
• New forms of cooperation between public/
private and private/private
• High skilled job opportunities, need for
up-skilling
• Adaptation to new needs
Source: TNO/SEOR
1 With the exception here of Technology, parts of which
which can be influenced at firm level. For reasons of
internal consistency of the scenarios, this driver is never-
theless categorised as exogenous.
13Post Scenarios and implications for employment Four future scenarios have been degree of uncertainty indicating explored: 1) Snail-mail, 2) Post-all, 3) possible paths for flexible anticipa- Post-IT, and 4) Email-round (see Fig- tion. In constructing the scenarios, ure). The scenarios depict plausible those drivers have been selected and credible futures for the post sec- that scored high on the criteria tor in Europe by 2020. Rather than relevance, impact and uncertainty. wishful pictures (‘dreams’, ‘crystal The relevance criterion was used ball gazing’) of the future, sce- to focus and tailor the scenarios narios are founded on drivers and to the aim at hand, i.e. drawing trends observed and are derived in inferences on the future of jobs a logical and deductive way, hence and skills and knowledge needs by making inferences about plausible 2020. Impact and uncertainty were future developments. Rather than used to define distinct directions in predictions or forecasts based on the four scenarios which have been a model, the scenario outcomes depicted in the figure below, with in this study are based on expert the exogenous drivers on the hori- opinion. The bandwidth between zontal axis and the endogenous the most extreme scenarios can drivers on the vertical axis. be interpreted as indicative for the 14
Driver Is this How How Are subs- Are subs- Are subs- Short, Are subs- Are subs-
driver relevant uncertain tantial tantial tantial medium or tantial tantial
relevant is this is this impacts impact impacts long run diffe- diffe-
for the driver driver expec- expected expected impact? rences rences
sector? for the for the ted on on S M L expec- expec-
Y/N sector? sector? on the employ- new ted ted
Scale Scale volume ment skills? between between
Category
0-10 0-10 of compo- Y/N (groups sub-
employ- sition? of) coun- sectors?
ment? Y/N tries? Y/N
Y/N Y/N
Income per capita Y 8 5 Y N N Y Y Y Y N
and household
Increasing global Y 5 3 Y N N Y Y Y N Y
Main drivers of change: Post sector
competition
Emerging Y 3 3 N N Y N N Y N N
Economic
economies driving
global growth (new
market demand,
especially BRICs)
Advances in IT Y 5 6 N N Y N Y Y N N
impacting on
organizational
structures & new
business models
Internet changing Y 10 0 Y Y Y Y Y Y N N
production and
consumption patterns
(e-business; etc.)
15
Scenarios and implications for employment
innovation
New types of Y 5 0 N Y Y Y Y Y Y N
work organization
(teams-based,
sociotechnique, etc.)
Technology, R&D and product and process
New/additional Y 10 0 Y Y Y Y Y Y N N
value-added servicesDriver Is this How How Are subs- Are subs- Are subs- Short, Are subs- Are subs-
16
driver relevant uncertain tantial tantial tantial medium or tantial tantial
Post
relevant is this is this impacts impact impacts long run diffe- diffe-
for the driver driver expec- expected expected impact? rences rences
sector? for the for the ted on on S M L expec- expec-
Y/N sector? sector? on the employ- new ted ted
Scale Scale volume ment skills? between between
Category
0-10 0-10 of compo- Y/N (groups sub-
employ- sition? of) coun- sectors?
ment? Y/N tries? Y/N
Y/N Y/N
Trade and market Y 10 0 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N
liberalisation
(national level)
EU integration – Y 5 5 Y Y Y N N Y Y N
broadening (bigger
domestic market)
Quality of Y 10 0 Y N N Y Y Y Y Y
institutions
(judiciary,
transparency,
corruption, business
climate, structural
rigidities)
Institutional / Political
Labour market Y 10 3 Y N N Y Y Y N N
regulation
Environmental Y 5 3 Y Y Y Y Y Y N N
regulation
Security and safety Y 7 5 N N Y Y Y Y N N
regulation
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI.Scenarios and implications for employment
Four future scenarios for the post sector and main underlying drivers
Endogenous, sector specific
drivers:
- Trade and market regulation
- Labour market regulation
- Quality of institutions
Open market, flexible labour
market regulation, high quality
institutions
Exogenous drivers:
- Technology:
• Value added services - Moderate Post-all Email-round - F ast
• Process innovations - Moderate - F ast
• Internet changing - Moderate - F ast
consumption patterns
- Lifestyle - Local Snail-mail Post-IT - Virtual community
community
- Income - Low -H
igh
Restricted competition,
inflexible labour market
regulation, low quality of
institutions
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI.
17Post
Note that the demographics – age- through and the quality of regula-
ing (less young, more retirees) – and tory bodies is low. The demand for
its effects on labour supply have not traditional and ‘new’ (IT-based) ser-
explicitly been identified in select- vices is supposed to be stable over
ing the drivers, as demographics time.
in the time frame of 2009-2020 are
relatively certain (i.e. predictable) Scenario II: Post-all
and play a role across all scenari-
os. Education and training, which Post-all depicts a world character-
stricto sensu could be perceived ised - like in Snail-mail - by mod-
as endogenous factors, have been erate technological progress, low
excluded. They form - together with income growth and a community
a number of other strategies and/or focus. Main difference is that com-
policies - the solutions and hence a petitive market regulation and high
possible response to the impact of quality institutions are present,
the scenario on skills, knowledge with liberalization ensuring a high
and jobs. The key features of the level of competition. The larger
four scenarios can be described as corporations face increasing com-
follows: petition from smaller niche players,
both in the traditional postal and
Scenario I: Snail-mail in the express markets. Communi-
ties and local presence are major
Snail-mail depicts a world charac- drivers; the search for further cost
terised by a low level of change. efficiency as a result of low income
Income growth levels are low, growth and moderate technologi-
which result in small increases in cal progress lead to restructuring
demand. The local community is by incumbents, lay-offs and wage
important and technology does decreases.
not change very fast. This stimu-
lates ‘old’ patterns of postal services Scenario III: Post-IT
to survive. Change is also not stim-
ulated by competition, with large Post-IT depicts a world character-
incumbents not being challenged ised by fast technological progress
but rather becoming less market- and virtual communities becoming
driven and inward-looking. The more important than personal con-
intended next steps in postal mar- tacts. The express segment is grow-
ket liberalisation are not carried ing as a result of rising incomes
18Scenarios and implications for employment
and more Internet shopping, while new entrants compete heavily.
traditional postal activities are lag- Express companies are diversify-
ging behind. Incumbents are not ing into other mail segments, with
very efficient, as competition is their ability to service items quickly
restricted and the quality of institu- giving them significant advantage.
tions is low. Also companies have Flexible labour markets and ditto
consolidated in order to cope with regulation facilitate this process.
diminishing market demands and
to try to increase efficiency, but at
a prize: making them inflexible and
unable to change quickly to chang-
ing market conditions. Often, new
entrants are absorbed by the
incumbents. Consumers turn to
other sectors to provide them with
the services they require, leaving
companies overstaffed in various
departments and forcing them to
reorganise.
Scenario IV: Email-round
In Email-round technological
progress is fast, communities are
going virtual and income develops
favourably. Competition is further
stimulated by liberalisation and
deregulation. Traditional mail is
on the way back, with the number
of deliveries going down, offices
closed down and remuneration of
low educated workers going down.
However, companies grow and
develop many new value added
services, creating new chances for
workers but requiring news skills
and knowledge. Incumbents and
19Post
Implications of scenarios for jobs,
skills and knowledge by job function
Job volume changes. All scenarios change is large, but with very differ-
lead to substantial change in the ent different institutional settings,
structure of employment and skills most importantly the continuation
requirements, with the overall job of market liberalisation and deregu-
volume change being negative in lation (Email-round) or a halt (Post-IT).
all scenarios, and with more dynam- Although job numbers will go down,
ics in Post-IT and Email-round (see the main differences between the
Table). Post-all and Snail-mail are scenarios is in skills and knowledge
the scenarios where technology has changes. Substantial differences will
least impact. In Post-IT and Email- continue to exist between new com-
round the impact of technological panies and ‘old’ incumbents.
Implications of scenarios: job volume changes by function, 2009-2020
Snail-mail Post-all Post-IT Email-round
Managers M D M M
Business professionals D M I I
Operations professionals M D M I
Sorting staff and mail M D D D
carriers
Cashiers M M D D
Administrative staff M D D D
Technicians M D M M
Transportation workers D D D D
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI. Note: D = decrease, I = increase, M = maintain.
In all scenarios except Post-all the leading in Post-all to a decrease in
number of managers is expected the number of managers. In Email-
to stabilise, however, for differ- round, the decrease evens out as
ent reasons. With little competi- frequent changes, with high levels
tion managers use their power to of diversification, decentralisation,
remain in position, with not much new start-ups and concentration,
external pressure to reduce man- need to be managed. The number
agement layers. Under high com- of business professionals is expect-
petition such pressure does exist, ed to increase in the scenarios with
20Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
fast changing market conditions (sorting: automation; carriers: part-
and technological change. In Post- time and flex workers). In high com-
IT and Email-round, more business petition/fast technological change
professional are needed, both to scenarios, the position of the sort-
generate and execute new high ing and mail carriers is under pres-
value added products and ideas. sure, resulting in further job losses.
In Snail-mail and Post-all, there is This is also because of high substi-
not much need for business profes- tution effects from other (technol-
sionals. The reason for this is that ogy-induced) services. Snail-mail
competition is little and techno- is the only scenario in which sort-
logical change slow. Only in Post-all ing staff and mail carriers maintain
involving important restructuring, their position, at least in numbers,
business professionals are more in with local communities playing an
demand. Demand for operations important role and competition
professionals which includes ICT and technological change being
and other engineering profession- low. A notable divide in wage pay
als but also logistics specialists, is and conditions exists between old
for most part driven by technologi- and younger mail carriers. New
cal development and supply of new companies are hiring a new type
high value added services. In Email- of distribution worker Active rede-
round, their number increases. A ployment is one of the main chal-
similar trend is observed in Post-IT; lenges for the coming years. The
however, with the number of com- number of sales personnel stabi-
panies reducing, overall demand lizes in Snail-mail and Post–all in
maintains. In Snail-mail their num- which local communities play a
ber is stable: as the number of role, with companies showing local
companies is more stable and since presence. In Post-all incumbents
infrastructure and operations are are under pressure to cut costs,
focal, demand for their services can losing market share in niche mar-
be expected to be stable. kets, but winning also market share
because of local presence. In fast
Sorting staff and mail carriers rep- paced technological growth sce-
resent the bulk of employment in narios where communities become
the postal sector. Their number is even more virtually oriented, local
mostly dependent on demand for presence is not required anymore,
postal services, but also fed by effi- providing the incentive to com-
ciency measures, i.e. cost reduction panies to cutting back on costs.
21Post
Expected changes for administra- However, the latter is not expected
tive personnel are similar as those to offset the decrease in demand.
for sorting staff and mail carriers; Active redeployment of this cat-
regarded mostly by management egory of workers is one of the main
as overhead, this category is subject challenges for the coming years.
to job cuts when profits are falling
behind. Also competition and tech- Identification of emerging
nological change forces companies competences, skills and
to cut costs. Only in Snail-mail their knowledge needs
number is expected to maintain.
By taking the scenarios and drivers
The expected growth of the num- as a starting point, logical infer-
ber of technical staff is expected to ences (‘guestimates’) of skills and
maintain in high paced Email-round knowledge needs were made for
and Post-IT, with more value added each of the identified job functions.
services being offered (requiring Skills refer to the ability to apply
new equipment and maintenance), knowledge and use know-how to
but decreasing demand for letter complete tasks and solve prob-
mail. In Post-all reduction of over- lems. In the context of the Europe-
head costs is important, stimulat- an Qualification Framework (EQF),
ing companies to reorganise sort- skills are described as cognitive
ing and other technical facilities as (involving the use of logical, intui-
well as to cut costs by economis- tive and creative thinking) or prac-
ing on maintenance. The demand tical (involving manual dexterity
for transportation workers under and the use of methods, materials,
fast paced technological growth tools and instruments). Knowledge
decreases as part is replaced by refers to the outcome of the accu-
digital items (Post-IT and Email- mulation of information through
round). In Snail-mail local presence learning. It is the body of facts,
requires local delivery and trans- principles, theories and practices
port to local offices, although trans- that is related to a field of work or
portation workers remain vulner- study. In EQF context, knowledge
able to efficiency gains and hence is described as theoretical and/or
outsourcing (viz. Post-all). USPs try factual. Competences refer to the
to reduce the number of transport proven ability to use knowledge,
workers but new start-up com- skills and personal, social and/ or
panies require transport workers. methodological abilities, in work
22Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
or study situations and in profes- elaboration of future skills and
sional and personal development. knowledge needs for the purpose
Competences thus defined come of this study, both have been fur-
actually close to what is generally ther ‘disentangled’ to result into six
understood nowadays as ‘soft skills’. clusters of similar and related skills
In EQF context, competences are and knowledge needs (see Box).
described in terms of responsibil-
ity and autonomy. In the practical
Overview of skills and knowledge needs identified for each job
function and scenario
Knowledge (‘hard skills’)
• Legislative / regulatory knowledge (environmental / safety / labour / contracting);
Language*; e-skills; Marketing skills; Technical knowledge; Product knowledge; Product
development
Social Skills
• Team working skills; Social perceptiveness (listening / understanding); Communication;
Networking; Language*; Intercultural
Problem-solving Skills
• Analytical skills; Interdisciplinary; Initiative, Multi-skilling; Creativity
Self-management Skills
• Planning; Stress and time management; Flexibility; Multi-tasking
Management skills
• Strategic & visionary; Coaching and team building; Change management; Project
management; Process optimizing; Quality management; People skills crucial for collegial
management style
Entrepreneurial skills
• Supplier and customer relationship / understanding; Business understanding /
development; Trend setting / trend spotting
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI
23Post
Future skills and knowledge Managers. Developments in the
needs by job function postal sector, even in scenarios with
strong technological change, are
Across all job functions soft skills not as fast as in the telecoms and
will become increasingly important, other sectors. Skills and knowledge
especially so for high skilled profes- changes are therefore less dramatic
sional job functions. The general overall, but still have a substantial
trend of up-skilling across job func- impact for managers. For manag-
tions is bound to continue in the ers Email-round, with strong tech-
coming years. Due to the changing nological change and competition,
nature of jobs, predefined technical has the largest skills impact as it
knowledge capabilities will become drastically changes the business.
somewhat less important while skills Snail-mail with slow technologi-
to adapt and learn new competenc- cal change and little competition
es and life-long learning will be put departs from current practices in
at a premium. Certain knowledge – that the local community plays a
notably e-skills – will become more more decisive role in competition
important. Emerging competences and managing a company with a
of higher skilled jobs mostly refer to community focus requires different
how to learn, communicate, inter- techniques than the more tradi-
act and adapt to changing environ- tional management skills. Knowl-
ments in addition to a high quality edge is a major asset for managers.
education. Emerging competences In Post-IT and Post-all regulatory
in medium-educated job functions knowledge is vital in successfully
that mostly execute defined tasks acquiring other companies. In sce-
and processes refer mostly to spe- narios with strong technological
cific knowledge sets that can be change technical knowledge and
taught through learning.We illus- e-skills will become more influen-
trate the key emerging skills and tial, as managers need to keep up
knowledge needs for two of the with developments. In all scenarios
eight distinguished job functions, social skills are needed, but with
notably managers, and operations different emphasis. Most important
professionals.2 is social perceptiveness. In the local
community scenarios social per-
2 F or a summary of future skills and knowledge needs for
these and other job categories, see the tables at the end
ceptiveness is important in ident-
of this summary. More extensive and detailed accounts fying what the community wants,
on skills and knowledge needs can be found in the main
report, with further differentiations made by scenario. and align the company accordingly.
24Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
In scenarios where efficiency and t echnological growth. In Email-
technological development are round with bottom-up change,
important, social perceptiveness managers need to be approach-
is directed also internally, towards able and have a more collegial
employees, as many organisational management style. In all scenarios
changes will affect them. Manag- leadership emerges as critical skill,
ers need to be able to communi- especially leadership for guiding
cate and explain. In scenarios with changes that are under way.
strong technological change it is
important to understand custom- Operations professionals. Logisti-
ers in order to foresee develop- cal efficiency is the prime concern
ments and to identify new oppor- of operations professionals who
tunities. New opportunities require are involved in everything related
(more) problem solving skills, most to planning and distribution sys-
notably analytical skills and cre- tems, including ICT and web relat-
ativity. These skills are needed in ed services. In Post-all and Post-IT,
order to understand technologies where companies focus on reduc-
and to be able to combine them ing costs to cope with competition,
into business opportunities. Ana- operations professionals play an
lytic skills are also important in important role in streamlining the
restructuring. In scenarios with organisation: improving the effi-
forced reorganizations (Post-all ciency of processes and systems,
and Post-IT), coaching, team build- and integrating new services. In
ing and change management skills Email-round the focus is on inte-
are in high demand. In fast paced grating new value added services.
scenarios flexibility is key; planning In Snail-mail characterised by little
skills are more important in sce- change and little competition,
narios of slow paced technological companies focus on process reli-
growth. Marketing, business devel- ability and coherence of business
opment and trend spotting skills operations with local communities.
are most relevant in scenarios with
strong technological change. In all E-skills, operational and logistical
scenarios it is crucial that manag- technical knowledge as well as man-
ers understand their suppliers and agement knowledge are important
customers.Most diversity occurs for operational professionals, espe-
in management skills, with strate- cially in scenarios with strong tech-
gic skills in scenarios with strong nological change. In scenarios with
25Post slow technological progress, social efficiency). Business development perceptiveness is an increasingly and understanding consumers and required and challenging skill, with suppliers skills are key in all sce- the role of local communities being narios. Trend setting and spotting vital for the organisation. Network- are very important in Email-round. ing skills, communication skills and All scenarios require some form of team working skills are especially new management skills. Strategic key in scenarios of strong techno- and visionary skills are especially logical change, in convincing man- relevant in Email-round and Post- agers and business professionals of IT. As companies economise on the need to allocate more means to overhead, quality management new technologies. Strong techno- becomes an issue. In dynamic sce- logical change also requires more narios change management and problem-solving skills, including project management skills are signalling changes and to acting required, either to deal with forced accordingly, as well as analytical changes or to develop new pos- skills. Interdisciplinary skills are sibilities. Moreover in all scenarios important, as new value added process optimising skill are highly services are dependent on many relevant. different technologies. Changes in the business environment require These examples show that there the operational professionals to will not only be a continuous trend adjust themselves to new circum- of up-skilling in the coming years, stances. The most obvious related but also that skills and knowledge self management skills are flexibil- needs – and related gaps and ity in Email-round (fast changing shortages – need to be addressed technologies) and better planning flexibly, taking in mind the trajec- skills in Email-round, Post-IT and tory of strategic change of both the Post-all (improving organisational firm and the sector. 26
Main strategic choices to meet skill and knowledge needs
Main strategic choices to meet skill
and knowledge needs
In order to meet future skills and overall longer-term business strat-
knowledge needs, apt and timely egy, also for SMEs. Some solutions
solutions – referred to here as stra- will be found within the company
tegic choices - are required (see itself, e.g. through reorganising
table below). Strategic choices functions within or between plants,
refer and relate to the medium- and by offering (re)training trajecto-
longer term, even though emerg- ries or by active global sourcing
ing skills and knowledge needs in of personnel. For SMEs and espe-
practice may also apply to the now cially for micro-enterprises such
and tomorrow. Essential in seeking longer-term, more strategic human
appropriate solutions is to keep resource management often will
this longer time perspective in be more difficult to organise and
mind. Rather than focusing on one operationalise.
single solution, a set of linked stra-
tegic choices will in most cases be In order to address the identified
the best strategy to follow. Prioritis- future skills and knowledge needs
ing both in time (what first, where in an encompassing and timely
to follow up) and in allocation of manner, appropriate joint action is
resources (including budgetary needed by all stakeholders, includ-
focus) followed by further fine-tun- ing the industry (firms, sector
ing is a clear necessity to guarantee organisations and social partners),
that skills needs are targeted and training and education institutes,
solved. Skill needs can be identi- intermediary organisations and,
fied at various levels, ranging from last but not least, government at
assessments at the national or even all levels (EU, national, regional and
European sector level to more pre- local). Collaboration is needed in
cise assessments at the regional order to agree on and implement
and company level. Increasingly the a package of feasible solutions.
identification of skills and knowl- Timely, targeted and reliable infor-
edge needs but also the search mation to make decisions – i.e. ade-
for adequate solutions will have quate monitoring and analysis - is
to become an integral part of an an essential prerequisite.
27Post
Conclusions
Implications, conclusions and (higher) education;
recommendations refer to two
distinct levels: the individual job 4) Increase flexibility by pro-
function (micro) level focusing on moting e-learning and blended
available options by job function learning;
and the more aggregate generic
‘meso-level’ level. They are aimed 5) Pro-actively re-train and up-
at sectoral stakeholders (firms, skill employees and those made
social partner, education and redundant;
training institutes and others)
and policy-makers. The preceding 6) Train the trainers – keep voca-
table summarises the micro-level tional training up-to-date;
options and highlights the main
findings by category. At the meso- 7) Improve the provision of infor-
level a further distinction is made mation on future skills and train-
between education and training ing needs to both students and
on the one hand and ‘other’ main trainers;
conclusions and recommenda-
tions on the other, as follows: 8) Provide career guidance for
labour market entrants and
Conclusions and employees;
recommendations on
education and training 9) Actively promote multi-skilling;
1) Adapt and modernise voca- 10) Provide special training and
tional education and training support to self-employed and
(VET) and general education sys- part-time employees;
tems, but do this nationally rather
than at the EU level; 11) Take special courses and sup-
port for older workers seriously;
2) Modernise VET by enhancing
flexibility and addressing emer Main other conclusions
ging training needs by modulari- and recommendations
sation;
1) Improve the image and attrac-
3) Work towards closer collabo- tiveness of the sector in view
ration between companies and of attracting high-skilled and
28Conclusions
technical staff;
2) Collaborate with all relevant
stakeholders and intensify co-
operation: Partnerships for Inno-
vation and Job creation and
Social Dialogue;
3) Recognise prior learning, pro-
mote skills assessments and their
validation and stimulate the
international and intersectoral
acknowledgement of qualifica-
tion certificates;
4) Invest strongly in human capital
and and enhance the possibilities
to engage in life-long learning.
2930
Snail-mail Post-all Post-IT Email-round
Post
1. Employment volume M D M M
change
2. Skills changes 3 9 15 19
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Self-management, Management, Social, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship,
Social, Entrepreneurship, Self- Management, Management, Social,
Entrepreneurship management Knowledge, Social, Entrepreneurship,
Self-management, Self-management,
Managers
Problem-solving Problem-solving
4. Most important In-house development; In-house development; In-house In-house development;
solutions recruiting from other recruiting from other development; recruiting from other
sectors sectors recruiting from other sectors
sectors
5. Most important actors C C C C
1. Employment volume D M I I
change
main players in anticipatory action by scenario
2. Skills changes 2 9 12 22
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Social, Social, Management, Social, Knowledge, Entrepreneurship,
Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship, Management, Management,
Knowledge, Problem- Entrepreneurship, Self-management,
solving Problem-solving Problem-solving,
Summary of job volumes, skills changes, strategic choices and
Social, Knowledge
Business professionals
4. Most important Recruit Recruit, (Re)train Recruit, (Re)train Recruit, (Re)train
solutions
5. Most important actors C C C C1. Employment volume M D M I
change
2. Skills changes 4 9 16 18
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Entrepreneurship, Management, Problem solving, Problem solving,
Management, Social Entrepreneurship, Management, Management,
Social, Self- Knowledge, Knowledge,Entre-
management Entrepreneurship, preneurship, Social,
Social, Self- Self-management
management
Operations professionals
4. Most important Recruit Recruit, (Re)train Recruit, (Re)train Recruit, (Re)train
solutions
5. Most important actors C, E C, E C, E C, E
1. Employment volume M D D D
change
2. Skills changes 2 7 6 8
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Social Self-management Self-management Self-management
(stress), Social, (stress), Problem- (stress), Social,
Problem-solving solving, Knowledge Knowledge
4. Most important Retrain, Information Retrain, Recruit, Retrain, Recruit, Retrain, Recruit,
solutions Information Information Information
Sorting staff and mail carriers
5. Most important actors C, E, S, U C, E, S, U C, E, S, U C, E, S, U
31
Conclusions32
Snail-mail Post-all Post-IT Email-round
Post
1. Employment volume M M D D
change
2. Skills changes 3 9 8 8
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Social Social, Problem solving Knowledge Knowledge
(regulatory), (regulatory),
Self-management, Self-management,
Problem solving Problem solving
Sales personnel
Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship
4. Most important (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information
solutions
5. Most important actors C, E, S, U C, E, S, U C, E, S, U C, E, S, U
1. Employment volume M D D D
change
2. Skills changes 2 6 8 13
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Management, Problem solving, Problem solving, Problem solving,
Entrepreneurship Management, Self- Management, Self- Self-management,
management management Entrepreneurship,
Management
Administrative staff
4. Most important (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information
solutions
5. Most important actors C, E C, E C, E C, E1. Employment volume M D M M
change
2. Skills changes 3 2 9 9
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Self-management, Self-management, Problem solving, Self- Problem solving, Self-
Social, Entrepreneurship management, Social, management, Social,
Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship
Technicians
4. Most important (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information, (Re)train, Information,
solutions New courses New courses
5. Most important actors C, E C, E C, E C, E
1. Employment volume D D D D
change
2. Skills changes 1 2 2 2
counted
3. Emerging skills needs Self-management Self-management Self-management Self-management
4. Most important (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information (Re)train, Information
solutions
Transportation workers
5. Most important actors C, E, U C, E, U C, E, U C, E, U
C=Companies; S=Sectoral organisations, U=trade Unions; E=Education and training institutes; G=Government (EU, Member State, regional, local). Notes: 1) The term ‘skills’ includes
knowledge (needs). 2) The second row ‘skills changes counted’ refers to the number of skills categories in the most extreme scenario that are up to change. 3) Indicated in bold: skills or
knowledge sub-categories up for the strongest upgrade need.
33
ConclusionsWhere to find more information?
The following information can be found on the Europa website under the address:
http://ec.europa.eu/restructuringandjobs
The other 17 sector studies on the analysis of the sector’s evolution and future skills needs
The Restructuring in Europe report
The thematic restructuring forums
The checklist and the toolkit on restructuring processes
The training guide for SMEs
The national seminars on restructuring in 27 EU countries
Official documents related to restructuring policiesYou can also read
