POLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS 2020 - Politico
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
2020 POLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS Broadcast. Cable. Radio. Digital Video. 2020 is on track to shatter politcal Despite an almost nation-wide lockdown, spending records. When Michael We maintain a bullish outlook on the 2020 Bloomberg entered the presidential cycle and have increased our 2020 politi- primary, it seemed spending would cal spending estimate by 12% to a total of blow past our initially projected $6B $6.7B. This is due to historic levels of pri- figure. Then Coronavirus struck and mary spending, record-breaking fundrais- the question has become, “How will ing, the lack of face-to-face campaigning this affect the political landscape in driving higher shares of budgets to paid 2020?” In consideration of the current media, and increased levels of insight into political environment, we have updat- digital video spending. ed our projections model. MAY 2020
POLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS
CYCLE COMPARISON
• So far, a cumulative $2.19B has been spent during the 2020 cycle
• This is over $1B more than what was spent at this point in 2016 and 2018
• Excluding Bloomberg, the $1.58B spent so far is nearly 2x that of any other cycle
• In 2016 and 2018, 54% of the cycle’s total cash was spent in the final 10 weeks
• $443M has already been reserved for the fall of 2020
$2.20B
$2.20B $2.18B
$2.00B $2.18B
$2.00B
$1.80B
$1.80B
$1.60B
$1.60B
$1.40B
$1.40B
$1.20B
$1.20B
$1.00B
$1.00B
$0.86B $0.86B
$0.80B
$0.80B
$0.68B $0.68B
$0.60B
$0.60B
2016 Cycle
2020 Cycle
$0.40B
$0.40B 2018 Cycle
2018 Cycle
2016 Cycle
2020 Cycle
$0.20B
$0.20B
$0.00B
$0.00B
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Figure 1 Spending Comparison by CyclePOLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS
TOPLINE PROJECTIONS
Advertising Analytics, in • $6.7B in political media spending in the 2019-2020 cycle
conjuction with Cross • This represents a 12% increase from our 2019 projection
• $4.9B in spending on traditional media (broadcast televi-
Screen Media,
sion, cable, and radio)
is projecting: • $1.8B in spending on digital video (much of which will be
on Facebook and Google)
BROADCAST CABLE DIGITAL RADIO
$3.56B
$2.52B
$1.82B
$1.73B
$1.30B
$1.16B
$0.74B
$0.66B
$0.45B
$0.32B
No Data $0.17B
Available $0.09B
$0.03B $0.06B
2014 2016 2018 2020 2014 2016 2018 2020 2014 2016 2018 2020 2014 2016 2018 2020
*Digital data begins in June 2018
Figure 2 Cycle Spending by Media TypePOLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS
DIGITAL SPENDING
Advertising Analytics is the only company comprehensively identifying and organizing digital cre-
ative from President to State House into 3 distinct categories: Direct Response (fundraising and
list building), Persuasion, or Get Out the Vote. These buckets allow for comparison to traditional
media and give customers valuable insight into how campaigns leverage the digital space.
• We have tracked more than $605M in spending from 13,000 advertisers on Facebook & Google
• $400M (67%) has been spent in Direct Response vs. $145M in Persuasion ads
• The Trump campaign has spent $48M on Direct Response ads (94% of their total spending)
• The Biden campaign has spent $16M on Direct Response ads (86% of their total spending)
Persuasion Direct Response
Facebook $445M
$92M $313M
Persuasion Direct Response
Google $160M
$54M $95M Figure 3 2020 Digital Spending
• Direct Response increases around elections but has a long tail and flatter trajectory
• Persuasion more closely resembles television trends, where more than 75% of spending gen-
erally happens in the 10 weeks before election day
Bloomberg Enters Race Iowa Caucus Super Tuesday
$16M
$14M
$12M
$10M
$8M
$6M
Ad Type
Direct Response
$4M Persuasion
$2M
$0M
1/6 2/3 3/3 3/31 4/28 5/26 6/23 7/21 8/18 9/15 10/13 11/10 12/8 1/5 2/2 3/1 3/29 4/26
Figure 4 2020 Digital TrajectoryPOLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS
PROJECTIONS BY RACE TYPE
• The Presidential General projection has increased from $1.8B to $2.2B, partially due to
record-breaking fundraising
• Senate projections have increased 19% to $1.0B
As of 5/5 $196M has been reserved for the fall by Senate advertisers
• House and Governor projections remain steady from our previous release
• Neither category has seen large shifts in competitive races
• The Presidential Primary concluded with $1.17B spent, exceeding our projection by 17%
Michael Bloomberg spent $581M, 49.8% of the total primary expenditures
$2.18B
$1.17B
$1.13B
$1.04B
$0.96B
$0.28B
Pres. General Pres. Primary Ballot Initiati.. House Senate Governor
Figure 5 2020 Race SpendingPOLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS
PROJECTIONS BY MARKET
• 14 Markets will exceed $100M in revenue
• We expect Florida and North Carolina to each have two markets exceeding
$100M in revenue
• We expect Phoenix, Philadelphia, and Atlanta to exceed $150M in revenue
Minneapolis - St. Paul, MN
$100M
Boston, MA
Detroit, MI $135M
$146M
New York, NY
Denver, CO
$100M
$141M
Las Vegas, NV Philadelphia, PA
$120M $199M
Phoenix, AZ Atlanta, GA Raleigh, NC
Los Angeles, CA $218M $158M $104M
$127M
Charlotte, NC
$150M
Tampa, FL Orlando, FL
$113M $108M
Figure 6 2020 Spending by Local Market
© 2020 Mapbox © OpenStreetMapPOLITICAL SPENDING PROJECTIONS
METHODOLOGY
OUR PRODUCTS
We set out to build our projections from
the ground up. Rather than dividing the
topline numbers from previous years, we
built a model to project spending at the ADMO
individual race level and then rolled these The only ad detection tool
numbers up to reach our topline conclu- that tracks political ads in
sions. Spending levels in a race correlate real time in all 210 media
markets and on digital plat-
strongly with the competitiveness of a
forms.
seat, so we based our 2020 estimates on
each seat’s previous spending levels and
Cook Political Report’s race ratings (Lean
D, Toss Up, Lean R etc.). https://cookpolit- DELTA
ical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
The most comprehensive
political spending data from
We based our projections on historical all race levels on all media
spending figures. Our database includes types, including digital.
$10B of spending from more than 2,000 A spending database of
elections, and 8 million ad airings. Each $10B+.
race is given a baseline number which is
then adjusted by factors such as the price
of a media market and candidate cash- PHAROS
on-hand reports. On average, a race in a
The most accurate pricing
market that demands higher average unit
tool with a database of TV
rates (AUR) like Los Angeles, CA will see rates containing 540,000+
far more spending than a race in a mar- contracts, 15,000+ advertis-
ket where AUR’s are comparatively less, ers, and $9.5+ billion dollars
such as Norfolk, VA, since it costs signifi- in rates.
cantly more to reach the same relative
audience levels.Advertising Analytics provides clients with sophis- ticated, real-time media intelligence. Our product suite provides actionable data about ad spends, air- ings, ratings, and creative details on both traditional and digital platforms. For more information or to request a demo, please email jlink@advertisinganalyticsllc.com Cross Screen Media is a marketing analytics and software company helping brands, agencies, and networks succeed in the Convergent TV space. Our platform creates a common currency across linear TV, digital, and CTV views so ad buyers can build a single optimized plan and sellers can prove the value of their inventory. For more information, please email dschreff@crossscreen.media.
You can also read
