Polar Capital Funds plc Emerging Market Stars Fund Northern Powerhouse - Northern Powerhouse Summit
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Polar Capital Funds plc Emerging Market Stars Fund Northern Powerhouse February 2019 “The Sustainable Emerging Market Fund” This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. www.polarcapital.co.uk 22/01/2019
Introduction – Emerging Market Stars Fund • Emerging markets, fundamental, stock picking, long only • High conviction portfolio of typically 45–65 stocks Product • Targeting 3% annual excess (net of fees) on a 3-year rolling basis characteristics • High active share • Growth and valuation mindset with a quality bias and ESG integration • Experienced team of five investment professionals with extensive emerging markets knowledge Team and • Each team member has individual responsibilities while working collaboratively decision-making • Strong analytical platform • Lead portfolio manager is the final decision maker • Stock-picking approach • Long-term mindset while considerate of the medium term Value • ESG fully integrated into the fundamental analysis proposition • Strong emphasis on valuation (EVA approach) and thorough due diligence process • Long-proven track record with top-quartile performance • Deliver sustainable shareholder value generation Source: Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 2 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Investment Team Jorry Rask Nøddekær • MSc Economics and Finance (Aarhus University) Head of EM & Asia team Lead Portfolio Manager • 19 years’ experience • BankInvest, New Star, F&C, Nordea Asset Management Michael Wang • BSc Economics (Yale University) Deputy Portfolio Manager • MPhil (Cambridge University) and D.Phil Candidate (Oxford University) • CFA • 16 years’ experience • ING-Barrings, Morgan Stanley Research, Amiya Capital, Nordea Asset Management Jerry Wu • BSc Economics (Peking University) Portfolio Manager/Analyst • MSc Management (London Business School) • CFA • 8 years’ experience • BlackRock Investment Management, Generation Investment Management, Nordea Asset Management Peter Andersen • MSc Economics and Finance (Aarhus University) Analyst • Passed all three levels of the CFA programme • 6 years’ experience • Jyske Markets, Nordea Asset Management Andy Chen • BSc Accounting and Finance (Lancaster University) Head of Research, China • MPhil Real Estate Finance (Cambridge University) (Based in Shanghai) • 10 years’ experience • Laxey Partners This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 3 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Mindset And Process Structure We identify companies that we believe will generate significant Delta ( ) in Economic Value Added (EVA) relative to current market expectations 3. EVA Valuation EVA valuation approach (Identify what is priced in by the market) EVA GAP (Shareholder Value) 1. Pockets of Growth 2. EVA Creation Factors Looking for structural growth The company’s competitiveness within the areas and the companies that industry – analysing company strategies and can capitalise on it the opportunities for EVA creation – including integrated ESG analysis, identifying the Sustainability Delta ( ) for the company Source: Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 4 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Process Research and Idea Generation Research and Stock Selection Portfolio Construction Finding our Pockets of Stock Selection Valuation & and Risk Growth Finding EVA creators identifying upside Demographics Technology Politics & Sustainability Globalisation Industry Dynamics Country Growth Dynamics Consumer Urbanisation Investment Rising Disp. Monetary & Preferences Cycle Income Fiscal policy We search for Pockets of Growth across emerging markets Source: Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 5 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Process Research and Idea Generation Research and Stock Selection Portfolio Construction Finding our Pockets of Stock Selection Valuation & and Risk Growth Finding EVA creators identifying upside Industry key success factors – the EVA Creation Wheel The Sustainability Delta The longer-term sustainability of the business model is essential for the EVA creation We conduct a full Sustainability assessment – including a detailed analysis of Material ESG factors – but as part of an integrated company analysis We have developed a proprietary model to analyse and identify the Sustainability Delta for a company around its stakeholders The key factors being: • Impact to Progress • Material ESG Issues • Business Ethics Impact to progress (35%) • Full integration comes through key input to the EVA model • Sustainability of operations • → Fade factor • Risk – risk to operations as well as reputational risk • → WACC adjustment Business Material ESG ethics (15%) issues (50%) Source: Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 6 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Process Research and Idea Generation Research and Stock Selection Portfolio Construction Finding our Pockets of Stock Selection Valuation & and Risk Growth Finding EVA creators identifying upside Valuation: exploiting the EVA Gap – what is in the price? EVA generation • Focus on long-term fundamentals – key drivers analysed in our EVA Creation EVA Wheel model Gap Market view • The EVA delta is often revealed over the company’s capital allocation process (Capex/investment cycle) • Comes with uncertainty, risk and plays out over the full investment Time/Scenarios cycle – foundation for finding our under-priced EVA delta • Our analysis from the EVA Creation wheel model gives us a better forecast of the future outcome of the company's growth strategies and opportunities EVA valuation levels (V1, V2, and V3) Distribution curve from the EVA modelling 7,000,000 • Better understand risk/reward outcomes 6,000,000 5,000,000 • Where do we have a different view from the market? 4,000,000 • Detailed forecasting with a long-term focus but we acknowledge we do 3,000,000 not have perfect foresight – work with an EVA distribution curve 2,000,000 • V2: Key valuation level – pricing our key growth drivers 1,000,000 • V1: What is the valuation if we are too optimistic on growth - V1 V2 V2 V2 V2 V3 V3 V3 V3 • V3: Is there “up-side risk” from future growth opportunities growth margin capital intensity growth margin capital intensity Source: Polar Capital. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns Polar Capital may achieve. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute advice or a recommendation. Forecasts are based upon subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that have not and may not take place. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 7 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Process Research and Idea Generation Research and Stock Selection Portfolio Construction Finding our Pockets of Stock Selection Valuation & and Risk Growth Finding EVA creators identifying upside The Star companies in Emerging Markets We believe in the Next Generation approach for long-term sustainable growth and shareholder value generation Source: Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 8 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Process Structure – Summary Number of stocks ~1200 → ~500 ~500 → ~300 ~300 → ~150 Portfolio weights Risk / Reward Portfolio of 45-65 stocks Portfolio construction – 1.75-2.0% Max 3.5% balance growth v valuation overweight overweight and focus on risk 1.25%- 0.75-1.25% 1.75% overweight overweight Liquidity Source: Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 9 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Past Performance With Strategy: Nordea 1 – Emerging Stars Equity Fund (BI-USD) Performance relative to peer group – as at 31 December 2017 Nordea 1 – Emerging Stars Equity BI USD MSCI EM NR USD EAA Fund Global Emerging Markets Equity Source: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved as of 08.01.2018. European Open End Funds database, Morningstar EAA OE Global Emerging Market Equity category. Period under consideration: 16.04.2011 - 31.12.2017. Performance in USD. The performance represented is historical; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and investors may not recover the full amount invested. The value of shares can greatly fluctuate as a result of the sub-fund’s investment policy and cannot be ensured. Source: 1. The Nordea 1 – Emerging Stars Equity BI USD Fund was managed by Jorry Nøddekær who had primary responsibility as portfolio manager for the Fund from inception in April 2011 until February 2018. The comparisons represented herein are included for illustrative purposes only and investors must read the Polar Capital – Emerging Market Stars prospectus prior to making a decision to invest. 2. Performance based on BI USD. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 10 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Past Performance With Strategy: Emerging Stars Equity Strategy (Gross Of Fees) Return attribution since inception Source: Nordea Investment Management AB and Barra Global Equity Model. Period under consideration: 16.04.2011 – 29.12.2017. The performance represented is historical; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and investors may not recover the full amount invested. There can be no warranty that an investment objective, targeted returns and results of an investment structure is achieved. Comparison with other financial products or benchmarks is only meant for indicative purposes. Please note that the attribution shown above refers to the Nordea Emerging Stars Equity Strategy (gross of fees). This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 11 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Nordea 1 - Emerging Stars Equity Fund (BI-USD) 16 April 2011 – 31 December 2017 January → end-February 2016: Underperform by ~ - 580bp China and India growth April → mid-August 2015: scare and Value rally Underperform by ~ - 350bp June → end-August 2013: China growth scare / RMB Underperform by ~ - 320bp devaluation Taper event (all “growth Late January → mid-March 2012: assets” hit hard) Underperform by ~ - 280bp Growth scare / China scare Historically we have had a strong rebound in relative performance after these event of underperformance where the underperformance has been driven by “Macro-Economics/Risk aversion” and/or style factors. Data Source - © 2018 Morningstar, Inc.. All Rights Reserved as of 08.01.2018. European Open End Funds database, Morningstar EAA OE Global Emerging Market Equity category. Period under consideration: 16.04.2011 - 31.12.2017. Performance is in USD. The performance represented is historical; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and investors may not recover the full amount invested. The value of shares can greatly fluctuate as a result of the sub-fund’s investment policy and cannot be ensured. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 12 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Performance Update Long-term performance with strategy Launch of Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund – 29 June 2018 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Sep-18 Emerging Stars Equity Strategy MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2018. Share classes used are as follows: April 2011 to 31 December 2017 – Nordea 1 – Emerging Stars Fund (BI share class), 1 July 2018 to 31 December 2018 – Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars fund (I USD Share Class). Performance is quotes Net of Fees. Benchmark is MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (USD). The Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund was launched on 29 June 2018, this is denoted by the orange line on the graph above. Note: No performance data between 31 December 2017 to 1 July 2018. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 13 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Performance Update Long-term performance with strategy Long-term performance for the Emerging Market Stars Strategy – Contribution analysis (Gross of Fees)1 2011** 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*** Active Return (gross of fees) 2.68% 6.91% 5.50% 10.40% 2.97% -3.57% 10.95% -5.85 (Stratgey - MSCI EM) Attribution Analysis* Stock Selection - (Sector) 1.88% 6.04% 3.10% 4.06% 2.12% -2.55% 5.50% -1.84% Asset Allocation (sector) 0.80% 0.87% 2.46% 6.34% 0.85% -1.02% 5.45% -4.01 Stock Selection - (Country) 1.22% 10.41% 9.08% 4.66% 0.35% -1.84% 12.38% -4.24% Asset Allocation - (Country) 1.46% -3.50% -3.53% 5.74% 2.62% -1.73 -1.43% -1.61 Long-term for performance for Strategy – Contribution analysis: Over the longer-term we have retained a strong and significant stock selection effect – consistent with our process and ambitions. Source: Nordea Asset Management and Polar Capital, 31 December 2018. Share classes used are as follows: April 2011 to 31 December 2017 – Nordea 1 – Emerging Stars Fund (BI share class), 1 July 2018 to 31 December 2018 – Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars fund (I USD Share Class). Performance is quotes Net of Fees. Benchmark is MSCI EM Total Return (USD). *Attribution analysis is on the back of GICS classification. **The Strategy (back then the Nordea Emerging Stars Fund) was launched in April 2011. ***The Strategy – The Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund was launched on 29 June 2018. Note: No performance data between 31 December 2017 to 1 July 2018. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 14 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Sustainability Reporting Own “Sustainability Delta model” Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars sustainability map The aim of the model is to give valuable insight into a given companies Sustainability profile and be able to quantify it into an EVA framework – thereby having full integration in the process The Sustainability Delta model aims to identify companies that are on an improving trend from a sustainability perspective – but still have an acceptable level of internal process’s in place in terms of being able to handle material ESG issues and have a good business ethics The blue dots are the holding in the Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund. The red dots are just there as a reference points showing examples of companies that score in a way where we see weak or direct negative contribution to EVA creation and thereby impact the evaluation of the company in a negative way, and thereby disqualify it as a potential investment into this Fund Source: Polar Capital, 31 December 2018. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 15 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Sustainability Reporting Impact-Cubed – measuring impact at the portfolio level We do believe this is a very high score and does show the strong sustainability profile and positive impact our investment process has. Source: Impact-Cubed, 31 December 2018. Benchmark is MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (USD). This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 16 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Sustainability Reporting MSCI ESG IVA – ESG profile of the portfolio using MSCI ESG data • Generally a good ESG score in aggregate • Bias to BBB rated companies • Want to find the “delta” – the companies that are improving • We do often find the biggest “delta” situations in the BB and B segment • Reliance Industries and Alibaba are currently two of our biggest “delta” cases – significant opportunities for EVA creation in the future • Energy and Base-material normally very high risk from an ESG perspective – Antofagasta and Oil Search scores very well Source: Polar Capital and MSCI IVA Research, as at 31 December 2018. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12 months is available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. Benchmark is MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index (USD). This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 17 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Electrification / Renewable Energy Gas revolution Emerging consumer Sustainability Reporting Financial Services penetration & Inclusion New Semiconductor Paradigm Data & 5G mobile revolution Data and Data Centre revolution Specialty Pharma Medical Service Urban livestyle UN SDGs Smart mobility MedTech EV & Electrification Digital living Electrification / Renewable Electrification Energy Energy / Renewable Gas revolution Gas revolution Emerging consumer Emerging consumer Electrification / Renewable Energy Gas revolution Emerging consumer Financial Services Financial penetration Services & penetration & Financial Services penetration & New Semiconductor Paradigm Paradigm Data & 5G mobile New Semiconductor Data &revolution 5G mobile revolution Inclusion Inclusion New Semiconductor Paradigm Data & 5G mobile revolution Inclusion Samsung Chroma SDI Silergy Ate Data and Data Dataand Centre andDatarevolution Data Centre Centre revolution revolution Specialty Pharma Specialty Specialty PharmaPharma Medical Service Medical Service Medical Service Urban Urban livestyle livestyle Urban livestyle Parag Milk Shenzhen Foods Inovance Environmental Related Technology Smart Smart mobility Smart mobility mobility MedTech MedTech MedTech EV & Electrification EV Electrification EV & Electrification Digital livingliving Digital living Digital BYD Antofagasta Oil Search Land Mark Optoelectronics Naspers Microport BB Scientific Seguridade SK Hynix China Medical NMC ASPEED Samsung Chroma Notre Dame Alibaba Ping An Technolog SDI Samsung Silergy Ate Chroma Intermedica AIA Advanced 21 Vianet Samsung SDI Silergy Silergy Chroma Ceramic X Ate SDI Ate Grupo SM Financiero Investments Social Related Banorte Prestige Estates Economic Growth and ICI Bank Productivity Parag Milk Shenzhen Tencent Foods Parag Milk Inovance PSG Group FirstRand John Keells Parag Milk Environmental Related Shenzhen Shenzhen Holdings Foods Environmental RelatedTechnology Inovance Housing Development China Vincom Retail eMemory Technology 51job Sberbank Positive Foods Neutral Environmental Related Inovance Technology NegativeTechnology Finance Resources Sanjiu Medical Reliance Industries Itau Unibanco TSMC 89% BYD 11% Antofagasta 0% Samsung BYD Antofagasta Apollo Electronics BYD Antofagasta Hospitals 89% of our investments have exposure to UN SDGs Oil Search Land Mark Optoelectronics Oil Search Land Mark Oil Search Land Mark Optoelectronics Source: Polar Capital, 31 December 2018. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the Naspers A list of all securities in this document. Optoelectronics recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment Naspers of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. Naspers Microport BB Scientific Seguridade Microport BB This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. Microport Scientific Scientific BB China Seguridade SK Hynix 18 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation. Seguridade Medical NMC SK Hynix China Medical NMC SK Hynix ASPEED China Notre Dame Alibaba Ping An NMC Technolog Medical Intermedica Advanced 21 Vianet AIA ASPEED
Outlook For Emerging Markets And EM Stars Reasons to like EM now as a long term investor • Key PoG: 5G and Data Centre revolution - connectivity • ACX, 21Vianet, LandMark Opt., Aspeed • TSMC, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 19 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
ACX – Hidden 5G Gem • ACX specialises in the design and manufacture of RFFE components which is central to connectivity technology • The company has high exposure to a fast growing industry, has a very strong and defensible industry position and runs its business sustainably • The market valuation offers a very attractive risk/reward profile • Increasing number of connected devices and technology complexity in the 5G era is driving significant growth for the RFFE industry • As technology complexity increases so do the barriers to entry and the number of companies capable of delivering reliable solutions falls • Combined these factors create a strong Pocket of Growth and significant EVA generation opportunities Company exposure to PoG • ACX has strong exposure deriving its profits from wireless technology, Business Ethics 10 Industry Positioning its industry position is attractive as it is a niche leader with good 8 optionality to expand into modules Impact to progress 6 Optionality 4 • Strong pricing power, operational leverage from a vertical integrated 2 business model, high capital efficiency and protective barriers to entry • Material ESG issues Pricing Power 0 Very low balance sheet risk, very high quality of management but high exposure to a cyclical end market Industry risk Cost structure • The company scores well on material ESG issues with the only detractor being slightly below global CG standards. They have mandatory training Invested capital Quality of management efficiency in business ethics and good overall impact to progress score as wireless Balance sheet risk Barriers to entry technology fits well with sustainability trends Valuation EVA Fade 600 90% • Very attractive risk/reward with only limited downside in our V1 scenario 500 80% 70% and significant upside in both our V2 and V3 scenarios • 60% 400 50% Given our EVA wheel analysis we view the market as too negative on the 300 40% 30% level and sustainability of the company's EVA generation, and the market 200 20% fades the EVA too fast in our opinion 10% • 100 0% We see ACX as a STAR company, with strong exposure to a fast-growing - V1 V2 growth V2 margin V2 capital intensity V2 V3 growth V3 margin V3 capital intensity V3 market, a very attractive and defensive industry position and they run ROIC-WACC model ROIC-WACC implied 51% 104% their business sustainably Source : Polar Capital. Upside : -15% Source: Polar Capital, Qualcomm Technologies, Advanced Ceramics X. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute advice or a recommendation. Forecasts are based upon subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that have not and may not take place. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 20 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Outlook For Emerging Markets And EM Stars Reasons to like EM now as a long term investor • Key PoG: EV revolution and automounts driving • Chroma ATE, KingPak, Samsung SDI, BYD, Shenzhen Inovance, Antofagasta It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 21 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Samsung Electronics – Cheap Global Leader • Samsung Electronics is global technology and scale leader in the manufacturing of DRAM and NAND flash memory semiconductors • As the global leader in an indispensable technology area, Samsung Electronics has good exposure and a strong position in a fast-growing market • The current market price offers an attractive risk reward profile • The number and diversity of devices for data creation is growing rapidly with the development of the IoT ecosystem. This is fuelling strong demand for storage and processing technology • The supply side for memory semiconductors has consolidated significantly especially in DRAM due to increasing technology complexity and capital intensity • These factors create a strong Pocket of Growth and significant EVA generation opportunities for the rightly positioned companies Company exposure to PoG • Samsung Electronics has good exposure to memory as a leader but is a Business Ethics 10 Industry Positioning diversified company. They are the strongest positioned company within the 8 memory industry, and they have great optionality in terms of synergies with Impact to progress 6 Optionality their other business areas 4 • As the market leader, Samsung has good pricing power and given the high #1 NAND 2 Material ESG issues Pricing Power capital intensity the cost structure produces a lot of operational leverage. The 0 producer invested capital efficiency is good with strong working capital management Industry risk Cost structure • No balance sheet risk, strong management team with individual segment heads but high exposure to cyclical end markets Quality of Barriers to entry management Invested capital • Business Ethics is improving, they are managing ESG risks well and their Balance sheet risk efficiency products contribute to progress 100,000 Valuation EVA Fade • We see a very attractive risk reward profile, and even if we remove all our 25% 80,000 20% assumptions around optionality and take a "business as usual" view we still 60,000 15% get upside from the current market price 10% 40,000 5% • Given our EVA wheel analysis and our differentiated view of the sustainability 20,000 0% of the memory market growth, we believe that market is way too bearish on 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 -5% 0 -10% the EVA generation capabilities of Samsung Electronics, as our analysis -20,000 -15% shows the current price implies that Samsung will destroy value long-term ROIC-WACC model ROIC-WACC implied Upside: 2% 57% 106% • We see Samsung as a STAR company given their world leading technology and industry position and their active improvement in ESG related areas Source: Polar Capital, Samsung Electronics. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute advice or a recommendation. Forecasts are based upon subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that have not and may not take place. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 22 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Samsung SDI – Leading Battery Maker • Rising penetration of EVs combined with a higher focus on renewable energy production is driving a significant demand for lithium-ion battery technology • As requirements for battery technology increases in terms of energy density and cost effectiveness we expect the industry to consolidate around a few winning players • Combining these factors creates a strong Pocket of Growth and significant EVA generation opportunities for the rightly positioned companies Exposure to PoG 10 Business Ethics Industry Positioning • SDI has strong exposure to pockets of growth as most of their revenue 8 and profits are from battery technology. Their industry position is strong in Impact to progress 6 Optionality our view and they have good optionality to expand their business in ESS 4 • Low pricing power but a very attractive cost structure with significant 2 operational leverage. Barriers to entry are rising and invested capital Material ESG issues Pricing Power efficiency is good 0 • Some balance sheet risk as the company is investment mode, high quality of management but high exposure to a cyclical end market Industry risk Cost structure • The company scores show progress on its material ESG issues but is still lacking in some areas. They have mandatory training in business ethics Management Quality Barriers to entry and good overall impact to progress score as battery technology fits well Balance sheet risk Invested capital efficiency with sustainability trends Valuation • Samsung SDI is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer supplying batteries for 500,000 450,000 automotive and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and consumer 400,000 electronics 350,000 300,000 • The company has high exposure to a fast-growing industry, has a very 250,000 strong and defensible industry position and a product that fit well with 200,000 sustainability trends. 150,000 100,000 • The market valuation is offering a very attractive risk reward profile. 50,000 0 -50,000 V1 V2 growth V2 margin V2 capital V2 V3 growth V3 margin V3 capital V3 intensity intensity Upside: -26% 45% 90% Source: Polar Capital, Avicenne Energy. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute advice or a recommendation. Forecasts are based upon subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that have not and may not take place. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 23 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Outlook For Emerging Markets And EM Stars Reasons to like EM now as a long term investor • Key PoG: India Financial Inclusion and Property (Indian middle-class evolving and urbanisation) • HDFC, ICICI Bank, Phoenix Mills, Prestige Estate Mortgage markets in India Source: European Mortgage Federation, HOFINET & HDFC estimates for India. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 24 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Phoenix Mills – Mall King In India • Phoenix Mills is one of the absolute leading - if not the leading - Mall company EVA Valuation •in India. Phoenix It ownMills keyis one Mall of the assets absolute in Mumbai andleading – cities other key if notinthe that– Mall leading the India Impact to Material ESG issues companies in India. It owns key Mall assets in Mumbai and other are fast growing. Phoenix Mills also own a property development business with key cities in progress significant potential, India which andgrowing. are fast owns Hotels and operates Phoenix Mills alsocommercial centresdevelopment own a property in Mumbai business with significant potential, owns Hotels and operates commercial ockets Industry key growth Business Ethics success factors • Wecentres in Mumbai truly believe Phoenix Mills is a future STAR company • We truly believe Phoenix Mills is a future STAR company 3. Valuation • • India India hashas oneone of theofmost the most interesting interesting social social demographics demographics developments developments as the as the country country seem toseem be at atounique be at point a unique in timepoint in young where time where young population, population, urbanisation, urbanization, uplift uplift in theinservice the economy, service economy, and a moveand a move towards an towards an "international consumer "international consumer lifelife style" will will style" drive hugehuge drive opportunities to capitalize opportunities on on to capitalise Pockets 2. Industry Key thethe new emerging new emergingconsumer. consumer Growth Success Factors • • Land in key Land central in key city locations central are scarce city locations and barriers are scarce to entry to and barriers in the entryMall in the Mall business businessareare highhigh limiting supply,supply, – limiting and place andthe earlythe place movers early and operators movers and operators with deep knowledge of the industry in a very strong position. with deep knowledge of the industry in a very strong position Company exposure • Phoenix Mills is very well positioned to take advantages of the new emerging to PoG 3. Valuation B usiness E thics 10 Indust ry P ositioni ng consumer trends and increased spending power given is location and brand 8 • Phoenix value Mills of its is very -well Malls positioned a clear leadingtointake advantages catching of the the new newurban young emerging consumer consumer trends and increased spending power given is location and brand Im pact t o progress 6 Opt ionalit y • value Theofbusiness its Malls model - a clear- leading owning inand running catching theMalls - offersurban new young very consumer high operational 4 #1 NAND leverage. Phoenix Mills has over the last decade been developing the key Pockets 2. Industry Key • The business model - owning and running Malls - offers very high operational f Growth Success Factors 2 Mall assets - now Millswe believe monetising last decadewill come with a significant uplift in Mat erial E S G issues P ri cing Power producerleverage. Phoenix has over the been developing the key Mall 0 ROIC (Tenant mix and rental revision with incremental large improvements assets - now we believe monetizing will come with a significant uplift in ROIC in margins) (Tenant mix and rental revision with incremental large improvements in Impact to Progress • margins) Indust ry risk Cost st ructure Phoenix Mills manages its stakeholder relationships well - no material ESG • Phoenix risk Mills manages its stakeholder relationships well - no material ESG risk Material ESG Qualit y of Invested capit al • • ItsIts managem ent eff iciency Business balance Ethics issues balance sheetsheet is geared is geared - but - but given given FCF the future theprofile futureweFCF profile we are are comfortable B alance sheet risk B arriers t o entry comfortable Valuation Valuation EVAEVA Fade Fade • We see a very attractive Return / Risk profile for Phoenix Mills, with a strong 1,200 1,200 30% 25% • Weprofile upside see a very attractive relative Return to the / Risk profile downside for Phoenix risk should the Mills, growthwith a profile not 3. Valuation 1,000 25% 20% strong upside profile relative to the downside risk should the growth 1,000 800 20% materialise. profile not materialize. 15% 15% 600 • We see upside coming from increased revenue profile, but also a large uplift • We see upside coming from increased revenue profile, but also a large 800 10% 400 10% 600 200 5% from uplift margin expansion from and future margin expansion andreduced capital capital future reduced insensitivity as theasheavy insensitivity 1. Pockets 2. Industry Key 5% 0% investments the heavy have been taken investments haveupfront been taken upfront 2019 2021 2023 2025 2025 2027 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2035 2039 2037 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2045 2051 2047 2053 2049 2055 2057 - of Growth Success Factors 400 -5% 0% • Looking at the • Looking implied EVAEVAprofile profile-- as wellasaslooking looking at factors like Cap 2019 2021 2023 2029 2031 2033 2039 2041 2043 2051 2053 2055 2057 at the implied as well at factors like Cap ROIC-WACC model 200 ROIC-WACC implied -5% RateRate (as (as a check)we a check) we see see aalarge largedegree degreeof safety on the of safety onupside for the for the the upside Upside: -12% 37% 76% company - V1 V2 growth V2 ma rgin V2 ca pital V2 V3 growth V3 ma rgin V3 ca pital V3 ROI C-W ACC model ROI C-W ACC impl ied company Source: Polar Capital. It should not be assumedintensi thatty recommendations intensi ty made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the urce: Polar Capital. Upside: -7% 35% 72%constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates represent the views of Polar Capital. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute advice or a recommendation. Forecasts are based upon subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that have not and may not take place. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 25 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Outlook For Emerging Markets And EM Stars We are constructive! EM relative to DM 12m forward price to earnings ratio and dividend yield1 • Emerging markets are cheap now • Expectations are low – we have already seen significant cuts to EPS by analysts and multipliers have contracted • Emerging markets do not have massive imbalances • Emerging markets currencies are very cheap • There is room for policy action ‒ Fiscal ‒ Monetary MSCI NJA, Latam and EMEA I/B/E/C consensus +12m PER expectation1 • India looks most “safe” – but not cheap • North Asia very cheap – but there are risks Source: Polar Capital, unless otherwise stated. 1. MB/E/S, MSCI, Credit Suisse research. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 26 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Outlook For Emerging Markets And EM Stars Case in point – SK Hynix Polar Capital EM Stars team: EVA valuation on SK Hynix – very favourable distribution curve from future forecasted EVA SK Hynix (Price to Book and RoE)1 generation2 Huge disconnect between future return profile and asset value relative to current market pricing! Source: 1. Bloomberg, 31 December 2018. 2. Polar Capital, 31 December 2018. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 27 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Emerging Markets: Asset Class With Huge Opportunities Turning points for EM The US twin deficits (current account deficit plus fiscal • US growth and the US$ → ~ 1Q19E – 2Q19E deficit) LEADS the US$ by two years. The gap has – Stronger US$ Risk for EM is overplayed in our view widened and is challenging the strong US$ view for the elevated USD1 – We see likelihood of a stable to potentially falling US$ – EPS growth fading (spread to EM will narrow/close) • Liquidity will come back into the system → ~ 1Q19E - 2Q19E – Fed will ease off and liquidity contraction move the other way – US growth slowing and low inflation – the Fed see we are in an asset based world • China – we will get a soft landing → ~ 4Q18E – 2Q19E – Debt levels are high – but we believe it can be managed – No “real” trade war / inject liquidity into the economy – China will stimulate • Trade / Geo-politics → ~ 4Q18E – 1Q19E 2 – Base case we do not get a trade war – everybody will lose out (Trump way of doing a deal!) – USA or China – do not take this “battle of global leadership” now • Investor and sell-side analysts “capitulation” → ~ 3Q18 - 1Q19E – 2019E & 2020E EPS are getting rebased now • Technology cycle turn around → ~ 1Q19E – 2Q19E – Inventory cycle to clear by ~ 2Q19E – 2020 → Next big technology super cycle (5G, Data, connectivity) Source: 1. BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, BIS, Bloomberg. Note: Dotted line denotes Bloomberg forecast for 2018-2020. 2. Bloomberg, 31 October 2018. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 28 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Outlook For Emerging Markets And EM Stars Portfolio positioning and conviction Our view on where we are different from peers (on best judgement from views on Bloomberg) Top ~ 20 positions The "tails" Large underweight / non-held stocks Relative higher weighting / Tencent SM Investments China Construction Bank Not uncommen stocks Ping An Yandex China Mobile AIA Antofagasta Baidu Samsung Electronics NetEase Petrobras Banorte Vale ICBC Relative low differentiation Alibaba Banco Bradesco (still OW positions) TSMC Hon Hai Itau Bank of China Naspers Infosys HDFC CNOOC TCS Notredame Intermedica Chroma ATE JD.COM Very diffientiating names Reliance Industries Parag Milk Lukoil (the stock name and/or its weighting) NMC Healtcare Advanced Ceramic X HDFC Bank Samsung SDI Microport OTP Apollo Hospitals 51Jobs CSPC Pharmaceutical Oil Search Kingpak Hindustan Unilever ICICI Bank BR Malls SK Hynix Phoenix Mills CD Projekt Silergy eMemory 21Vianet Prestige Estate Aspeed LandMark opt. Vincom Retail John Keells PSG Mail.ru China Medical Systems Source: Polar Capital and Bloomberg, 31 December 2018. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made since the Fund’s inception are available upon request. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 29 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Why Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund? We believe our STAR process will generate alpha: • Disciplined process and experience team to invest in growth opportunities in Emerging Markets • Strong fundamental believe in Economic Value Added (EVA) as the driver for long term shareholder value generation • Identify growing companies with mis-priced EVA profiles - centred on our own proprietary research and disciplined EVA valuation-based approach • Full sustainability integration with focus on companies impact to progress and managing of material ESG issues • Concentrated portfolio of high conviction stock picks • Strong track record with process and strategy • Time to be constructive on growth opportunities in emerging markets We believe our “STAR” investment philosophy & process will lead to “sustainable shareholder value generation” Source: Polar Capital. All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 30 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Important Information Polar Capital 16 Palace Street London SW1E 5JD Important Information: This document is provided for the sole use of the intended recipient and is not a financial promotion. It shall not and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to make an investment into any fund managed by Polar Capital. It may not be reproduced in any form without the express permission of Polar Capital and is not intended for private investors. This document is only made available to professional clients and eligible counterparties. The law restricts distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions; therefore, it is the responsibility of the reader to inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. It is the responsibility of any person/s in possession of this document to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction. It is not designed to contain information material to an investor’s decision to invest in Polar Capital Funds Plc – Emerging Market Stars Fund. SUCH INFORMATION, INCLUDING RELEVANT RISK FACTORS, IS CONTAINED IN THE FUND’S OFFER DOCUMENT WHICH MUST BE READ BY ANY PROSPECTIVE INVESTOR. Statements/Opinions/Views: All opinions and estimates constitute the best judgment of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital. This material does not constitute legal or accounting advice; readers should contact their legal and accounting professionals for such information. All sources are Polar Capital unless otherwise stated. Third-party Data: Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and has not been independently verified by Polar Capital. Neither Polar Capital nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any data contained herein. Holdings: Portfolio data is “as at” the date indicated and should not be relied upon as a complete or current listing of the holdings (or top holdings) of the Fund. The holdings may represent only a small percentage of the aggregate portfolio holdings, are subject to change without notice, and may not represent current or future portfolio composition. Information on particular holdings may be withheld if it is in the Fund’s best interest to do so. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in future will be profitable or will equal performance of the securities in this document. A list of all recommendations made within the lesser of the fund inception or the immediately preceding 12 months is available upon request. This document is not a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. It is designed to provide updated information to professional investors to enable them to monitor the Fund. Benchmarks: The following benchmark index is used: MSCI Emerging Markets Net TR Index. This benchmark is generally considered to be representative of the investment universe. This benchmark is a broad-based index which is used for comparative/illustrative purposes only and has been selected as it is well known and easily recognizable by investors. Please refer to www.msci.com for further information on this index. Comparisons to benchmarks have limitations as benchmarks’ volatility and other material characteristics may differ from the fund. Security holdings, industry weightings and asset allocation made for the Fund may differ significantly from the benchmark. Accordingly, investment results and volatility of the fund may differ from those of the benchmark. The indices noted in this document are unmanaged, unavailable for direct investment, and are not subject to management fees, transaction costs or other types of expenses that the fund may incur. The performance of the index reflects reinvestment of dividends and, where applicable, capital gain distributions. Therefore, investors should carefully consider these limitations and differences when evaluating the comparative benchmark data performance. Information regarding indices is included merely to show general trends in the periods indicated and is not intended to imply that the fund was similar to the indices in composition or risk. Regulatory Status: Polar Capital LLP is a limited liability partnership number OC314700. It is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities & Exchange Commission (“SEC”). A list of members is open to inspection at the registered office, 16 Palace Street, London, SW1E 5JD. FCA authorised and regulated Investment Managers are expected to write to investors in funds they manage with details of any side letters they have entered into. The FCA considers a side letter to be an arrangement known to the investment manager which can reasonably be expected to provide one investor with more materially favourable rights, than those afforded to other investors. These rights may, for example, include enhanced redemption rights, capacity commitments or the provision of portfolio transparency information which are not generally available. The Fund and the Investment Manager are not aware of, or party to, any such arrangement whereby an investor has any preferential redemption rights. However, in exceptional circumstances, such as where an investor seeds a new fund or expresses a wish to invest in the Fund over time, certain investors have been or may be provided with portfolio transparency information and/or capacity commitments which are not generally available. Investors who have any questions concerning side letters or related arrangements should contact the Polar Capital Desk at the Administrator on (+353) 1 434 5007. The Fund is prepared to instruct the custodian of the Fund, upon request, to make available to investors portfolio custody position balance reports monthly in arrears. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 31 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
Important Information Polar Capital 16 Palace Street London SW1E 5JD Information Subject to Change: The information contained herein is subject to change, without notice, at the discretion of Polar Capital and Polar Capital does not undertake to revise or update this information in any way. Forecasts: References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns Polar Capital may achieve. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute advice or a recommendation. Forecasts are based upon subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that have not and may not take place. Performance/Investment Process/Risk: Performance is shown net of fees and expenses and includes the reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions unless otherwise stated. Factors affecting fund performance may include changes in market conditions (including currency risk) and interest rates and in response to other economic, political, or financial developments. The Fund’s investment policy allows for it to enter into derivatives contracts. Leverage may be generated through the use of such financial instruments and investors must be aware that the use of derivatives may expose the Fund to greater risks, including, but not limited to, unanticipated market developments and risks of illiquidity, and is not suitable for all investors. Those in possession of this document must read the Fund’s Prospectus for further information on the use of derivatives. Past performance is not a guide to or indicative of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. Investments are not insured by the FDIC (or any other state or federal agency), or guaranteed by any bank, and may lose value. No investment process or strategy is free of risk and there is no guarantee that the investment process or strategy described herein will be profitable. Allocations: The strategy allocation percentages set forth in this document are estimates and actual percentages may vary from time-to-time. The types of investments presented herein will not always have the same comparable risks and returns. Please see the private placement memorandum for a description of the investment allocations as well as the risks associated therewith. Please note that the Fund may elect to invest assets in different investment sectors from those depicted herein, which may entail additional and/or different risks. Performance of the Fund is dependent on the Investment Manager’s ability to identify and access appropriate investments, and balance assets to maximize return to the Fund while minimizing its risk. The actual investments in the Fund may or may not be the same or in the same proportion as those shown herein. Country Specific disclaimers: In the United States the Fund shall only be available to or for the account of U.S. persons (as defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act")) who are "qualified purchasers" (as defined in the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the "Company Act")) and "accredited investors" (as defined in Rule 501(a) under the Securities Act). The Fund is not, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any of the states of the United States and interests therein may not be offered, sold or delivered directly or indirectly into the United States, or to or for the account or benefit of any US person, except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of such securities laws. The securities will be subject to restrictions on transferability and resale. The Fund will not be registered under the Company Act. Country Specific disclaimers: This document has not been registered as a prospectus with the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Accordingly, this document and any other document or material in connection with the offer or sale, or invitation for subscription or purchase, of Shares may not be circulated or distributed, nor may Shares be offered or sold, or be made the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to persons in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor Pursuant to Section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (the “SFA”) or (ii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. The Prospectus and Information Memorandum are available to download at www.polarcapital.co.uk alternatively; you can obtain the latest copy from the Polar Capital Investor Relations team. The Fund is a collective investment scheme but is not authorised under Section 104 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Accordingly the distribution of this document, and the placement of interests in Hong Kong, is restricted. This document may only be distributed, circulated or issued to persons who are professional investors under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and any rules made under that Ordinance or as otherwise permitted by the Securities and Futures Ordinance Country Specific disclaimers: Polar Capital LLP (Investment Manager) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale investors in Australia and is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the UK under UK laws which differ from Australian laws. This presentation is for one-on-one use with non-US professional investors only. Not for onward distribution. 32 Please refer to the Important Information at the end of this presentation.
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