OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH - Asian Credit Daily Friday, June 10, 2022
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OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH Asian Credit Daily Friday, June 10, 2022 Market Commentary ▪ The SGD SORA curve traded mostly higher yesterday, with shorter tenors trading 4-5bps higher, belly tenors trading 2-3bps higher and longer tenors traded 1-2bps higher (with the exception of 30Y which traded lower by 1bps). ▪ There were heavy flows in SGD corporates yesterday, with flows in OCBCSP 3.9%-PERPs, CS 5.625%-PERPs, HSBC 5%- PERPs and STHSP 3.95%-PERPs. ▪ UST 10Y yields traded 2bps higher to 3.04% yesterday, continuing the upward climb from the previous two days as investors await the consumer price data for May to be released tonight (Singapore time) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The White House commented on Thursday that they expect the next round of economic data to show elevated figures on inflation due to the Ukraine war and its effects on gas prices as well as ongoing supply chain issues. Separately, the CBOE Volatility Index rose more than 2 points to close above 26 for the first time in June and initial jobless claims for the week ended 4 June came in at 229,000, above Bloomberg’s median estimates of 206,000. Credit Summary: ▪ Industry Outlook – Singapore Credit Outlook: Singapore yesterday published the Singapore Green Bond Framework for sovereign green bond issuances by public sector agencies under the Significant Infrastructure Government Loan Act 2021 (SINGA). The framework details the Singapore Government’s (i) intended use of green bond proceeds, (ii) governance structure to evaluate and select eligible projects, (iii) operational approach to manage green bond proceeds, and (iv) commitment to post-issuance allocation and impact reporting. ▪ AIMS APAC REIT (“AAREIT”) | Issuer Profile: Neutral (4): AAREIT has updated that the target date for its acquisition of 315 Alexandra Road (“the Property”) has been extended to 1 July 2022 due to a change in the anchor tenancy arrangement of the Property. ▪ Credit Suisse Group AG (“CS”) | Issuer Profile: Neutral (4): State Street Corp and CS’ CEO Thomas Gottstein has refuted rumours that State Street Corp is looking to acquire Credit Suisse. Separately, the bank announced it is slowing down on its China expansion and delaying the targeted launch of its locally incorporated bank by a year to 2024. The move could also be somewhat related to CS’s need to control costs and investments and the recent global reorganization that has shifted autonomy away from Asia. ▪ Fraser and Neave Ltd (“FNN”) | Issuer Profile: Neutral (4): FNN’s 55.5%-owned Malaysian subsidiary, Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd Group (“FNN Berhad”) announced that it is proposing to take private Cocoaland Holdings Berhad (“Cocoaland”). The total consideration is expected to be ~MYR488.1mn (~SGD153mn) to be paid in cash.
OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH Asian Credit Daily Industry Outlook – Singapore Credit Outlook: ▪ Singapore yesterday published the Singapore Green Bond Framework for sovereign green bond issuances by public sector agencies under the Significant Infrastructure Government Loan Act 2021 (SINGA). These issuances will also be known as Green SGS (Infrastructure) bonds and will finance nationally significant infrastructure which meet the green criteria under the Framework. Nationally significant infrastructure under SINGA is defined as infrastructure projects controlled and legally owned by the Government, cost at least SGD4bn, have a useful life of at least 50 years, and support or materially improve national productivity or Singapore’s economic, environmental, or social sustainability. ▪ The Framework details the Singapore Government’s (i) intended use of green bond proceeds, (ii) governance structure to evaluate and select eligible projects, (iii) operational approach to manage green bond proceeds, and (iv) commitment to post-issuance allocation and impact reporting. ▪ Key principles of the framework include: o Alignment with internationally recognised market principles and standards including the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) Green Bond Principles 2021 and the ASEAN Capital Markets Forum ASEAN Green Bond Standards 2018 o Stringent governance and oversight of project selection and allocation of proceeds through the Green Bond Steering Committee to be chaired by the Second Minister for Finance. As part of the Framework’s implementation, the Singapore Government will also commit to annual post- issuance allocation reporting and impact reporting on environmental benefits and social co- benefits where possible. o Technical screening to evaluate and identify green projects with reference to internationally recognised market principles and standards such as the ICMA Green Bond Principles and the Climate Bond Initiative (CBI) Taxonomy and Sector Criteria. ▪ Per the release from the Ministry of Finance, proceeds from issuances under the Framework will be used to finance expenditures to support the Singapore Green Plan 2030 that facilitates the transition to a low-carbon economy in Singapore. Categories of Eligible Green Expenditures include Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, Green Building, Clean Transportation, Sustainable Water and Wastewater Management, Pollution Prevention, Control and Circular Economy, Climate Change Adaptation, and Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Natural Resources and Land Use. ▪ The Ministry of Finance will select a list of potential green projects before the Green Bond Steering Committee reviews the projects based on their use of proceeds. Once the projects are classified as nationally significant infrastructure, the Green Bond Steering Committee will approve the eligible green projects and allocate proceeds. Representatives of the Green Bond Steering Committee include senior government representatives from the Ministry of Finance, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Accountant-General's Department, the Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment and the Ministry of Transport. ▪ A second part opinion has been provided by Morningstar Sustainalytics to opine that the Framework is credible, impactful and aligns with internationally recognised market principles and standards. (Continued on the next page) Page 2
OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH Asian Credit Daily Industry Outlook – Singapore Credit Outlook: ▪ As a recap, the Singapore Government announced at Budget 2022 that the public sector will issue up to SGD35bn of green bonds by 2030 to finance public sector green infrastructure projects through the Singapore Government as well as its Statutory Boards. The government is expected to issue its first sovereign green bond under the SINGA in the coming months and aims to allocate net proceeds in full within 2 years and possibly up to 3 years in the initial years of the framework. (MoF, Bloomberg, Business Times, OCBC) AIMS APAC REIT (“AAREIT”) | Issuer Profile: Neutral (4): ▪ In relation to the acquisition of 315 Alexandra Road (“the Property”), there is a change in the anchor tenancy arrangement of the Property. ▪ In previous announcements, the Property is being sold on a partial leaseback arrangement where Sime Darby Property Singapore Limited (“SDPSL”) will lease back 70% of the building’s total gross floor area for a minimum of 10 years. ▪ However, with a letter of intent signed with a new anchor tenant, this change may affect the agreed purchase price of the Property which AAREIT is evaluating. The total transaction cost (including acquisition cost) as per earlier announcement is SGD106.6mn. ▪ AAREIT updated that the target date has been extended to 1 July 2022. This acquisition was first announced in January 2021. (Company, OCBC) Credit Suisse Group AG (“CS”) | Issuer Profile: Neutral (4): ▪ State Street Corp has come out to specifically address rumours that it is looking to acquire Credit Suisse. The company released a statement confirming “There is no basis to the continuing market rumors,” and “Although we have a long-standing company policy of not commenting on such speculation, we feel a response to these reports is now warranted in this instance.” CS’ CEO Thomas Gottstein also refuted the rumour yesterday in a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. conference and any other questions on whether CS is a takeover target, also stating that he is holding out hope for CS to report a profit for second quarter. Before the results announcement, CS will be holding an Investor Deep Dive on 28 June 2022 to provide further details on its current transitioning activities. ▪ Separately, the bank announced it is slowing down on its China expansion and delaying the targeted launch of its locally incorporated bank by a year to 2024. This is the second postponement in the past two years ago due to the slower licensing process and concerns amongst senior Credit Suisse executives in Zurich to invest at a time when the economy remains exposed to Covid-19 lockdowns that is impacting the economy and deal-making. ▪ The move could also be somewhat related to CS’s need to control costs and investments and the recent global reorganization that has shifted autonomy away from Asia. The bank however is continuing with its plans to take full ownership of its securities joint venture, Credit Suisse Securities (China) Limited (“CSS”). (Bloomberg, OCBC) Page 3
OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH Asian Credit Daily Credit Headlines Fraser and Neave Ltd (“FNN”) | Issuer Profile: Neutral (4): ▪ FNN’s 55.5%-owned Malaysian subsidiary, Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd Group (“FNN Berhad”) announced that it is proposing to take private Cocoaland Holdings Berhad (“Cocoaland”) by buying shares it does not already own in Cocoaland for MYR1.50 per share. FNN Berhad currently owns a ~28%-stake in Cocoaland, a confectionary and beverage company based in Malaysia. ▪ The total consideration is expected to be ~MYR488.1mn (~SGD153mn) to be paid in cash. The funding is expected to be via bank borrowings. (Company, Bloomberg) Page 4
OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH Asian Credit Daily Key Market Movements 1W chg 1M chg 10-Jun 10-Jun 1W chg 1M chg (bps) (bps) iTraxx Asiax IG 110 -1 -22 Brent Crude Spot ($/bbl) 122.13 2.01% 19.20% iTraxx SovX APAC 31 0 -6 Gold Spot ($/oz) 1,846.26 -0.27% 0.43% iTraxx Japan 71 4 -5 CRB 329.59 2.01% 10.94% iTraxx Australia 95 -1 -13 GSCI 816.81 1.05% 12.94% CDX NA IG 87 6 0 VIX 26.09 5.54% -20.92% CDX NA HY 100 -1 -1 CT10 (%) 3.051% 11.79 6.03 iTraxx Eur Main 93 4 -3 iTraxx Eur XO 466 22 1 AUD/USD 0.710 -1.44% 2.38% iTraxx Eur Snr Fin 103 4 -4 EUR/USD 1.063 -0.87% 0.92% iTraxx Eur Sub Fin 196 7 -10 USD/SGD 1.381 -0.38% 0.69% iTraxx Sovx WE 5 0 -1 AUD/SGD 0.981 1.10% -1.64% USD Swap Spread 10Y 7 -1 1 ASX 200 6,966 -3.76% -1.20% USD Swap Spread 30Y -23 -2 3 DJIA 32,273 -2.93% 0.35% US Libor-OIS Spread 8 -3 -8 SPX 4,018 -3.81% 0.42% Euro Libor-OIS Spread 19 3 12 MSCI Asiax 688 1.50% 7.10% HSI 21,600 2.46% 10.01% China 5Y CDS 70 -1 -15 STI 3,185 -1.45% -1.52% Malaysia 5Y CDS 80 -1 -22 KLCI 1,496 -3.50% -3.79% Indonesia 5Y CDS 107 1 -25 JCI 7,146 -0.51% 4.79% Thailand 5Y CDS 49 -1 -3 EU Stoxx 50 3,724 -1.86% 4.77% Australia 5Y CDS 22 -2 -2 Source: Bloomberg Page 5
OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH Asian Credit Daily New Issues ▪ Bank of China Ltd/Frankfurt priced a USD500mn 3-year senior unsecured green bond at T+20bps, tightening from an IPT of T+65bps area. ▪ Shanhai Hong Kong International Investments Ltd (Guarantor: Lianyungang Port Group Co Ltd) priced a USD250mn 3-year senior unsecured green bond at 5%, tightening from an IPT of 5.3% area. ▪ Coastal Emerald Ltd (Guarantor: Shandong Hi-Speed Group Co Ltd) priced a USD500mn 3-year senior unsecured green bond at 4.1%, tightening from an IPT of 4.6% area. ▪ Standard Chartered PLC priced a SGD235mn 11NC10 senior unsecured bond at 4.5%. Date Issuer Size Tenor Pricing 9-Jun-22 Bank of China Ltd/Frankfurt USD500mn 3-year T+20bps Shanhai Hong Kong International Investments Ltd 9-Jun-22 USD250mn 3-year 5.00% (Guarantor: Lianyungang Port Group Co Ltd) Coastal Emerald Ltd 9-Jun-22 USD500mn 3-year 4.10% (Guarantor: Shandong Hi-Speed Group Co Ltd) 9-Jun-22 Standard Chartered PLC SGD235mn 11NC10 4.50% Source: OCBC, Bloomberg Temporary Suspension ▪ Do note that our official coverage on City Developments Limited and China Construction Bank Corporation are temporarily suspended due to OCBC’s other business. Page 6
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