NYC Jobs Blueprint - PARTNERSHIP for New York City
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Partnership for New York City — Board of Directors Lee S. Ainslie, III Robert Greifeld Ian C. Read Managing Partner, Maverick Capital Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Board & Ajay S. Banga The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. Chief Executive Officer, Pfizer Inc. President & CEO, MasterCard Worldwide Gerald L. Hassell James D. Robinson, III David Barger, President & CEO, Chairman & CEO, BNY Mellon Co-Founder & General Partner, RRE Ventures JetBlue Airways Corporation Glenn H. Hutchins, Co-CEO, Silver Lake Julio E. Rojas, Chief Executive Officer, Candace K. Beinecke Kenneth M. Jacobs Americas, Standard Chartered Bank Chair, Hughes Hubbard & Reed LLP Chairman & CEO, Lazard Ltd Wilbur L. Ross, Jr. Frank A. Bennack, Jr. Jill Kaplan Chairman & CEO, WL Ross & Co. LLC Executive Vice Chairman & CEO, Publisher, Crain’s New York Business Michael I. Roth Hearst Corporation George S. Kaufman Chairman & CEO, Interpublic Group Stephen Berger, Chairman, Chairman, Kaufman Organization Steven Roth, Chairman, Vornado Realty Trust Odyssey Investment Partners, LLC Charles R. Kaye Howard J. Rubenstein William H. Berkman Co-President, Warburg Pincus LLC President, Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Managing Partner, Associated Partners, LP Klaus Kleinfeld, Chairman & CEO, Alcoa Inc. Mitchell E. Rudin Mark T. Bertolini Henry R. Kravis, Co-Chairman & Co-CEO, President & CEO, U.S. Commercial Chairman, CEO & President, Aetna Inc. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. Operations, Brookfield Office Properties Inc. Jeffrey L. Bewkes William P. Lauder, Executive Chairman, William C. Rudin, CEO & Vice Chairman, Chairman & CEO, Time Warner Inc. The Estée Lauder Companies, Inc. Rudin Management Company, Inc. Leon Black Rochelle B. Lazarus Pete Ruegger Founding Partner, Apollo Management, L.P. Chairman Emeritus, Partner, Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP Michael W. Blair Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide Kevin P. Ryan, Chairman, Gilt Groupe Presiding Partner, Debevoise & Plimpton LLP Richard S. LeFrak Linda S. Sanford, Senior Vice President, Lloyd C. Blankfein Chairman & CEO, The LeFrak Organization Enterprise Transformation, IBM Corporation Chairman & CEO, Goldman Sachs & Co. Martin Lipton, Senior Partner, Stephen A. Schwarzman Jeff T. Blau, Chief Executive Officer, Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz Chairman, CEO & Co-Founder, The Related Companies, L.P. Terry J. Lundgren The Blackstone Group Kathy Bloomgarden Chairman, President & CEO, Macy’s, Inc. Jerry I. Speyer Chief Executive Officer, Ruder Finn, Inc. Howard W. Lutnick Chairman & Co-CEO, Tishman Speyer Glenn A. Britt Chairman & CEO, Cantor Fitzgerald L.P. Mark A. Standish, President & Co-CEO, Chairman & CEO, Time Warner Cable Inc. Bridget A. Macaskill RBC Capital Markets, LLC Tory Burch Chief Executive Officer, First Eagle Frederick O. Terrell Chief Executive Officer, Tory Burch LLC Investment Management, LLC Vice Chairman, Investment Banking, Kevin Burke Vikram Malhotra Credit Suisse Chairman, President & CEO, Con Edison Chairman of the Americas, Mary Ann Tighe Kenneth I. Chenault McKinsey & Company, Inc. Chief Executive Officer, Chairman & CEO, Joel S. Marcus NY Tri-State Region, CBRE, Inc. American Express Company Chairman, CEO & Founder, James S. Tisch H. Rodgin Cohen Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. President & CEO, Loews Corporation Senior Chairman, Sullivan & Cromwell LLP Theodore Mathas John B. Veihmeyer Stephen J. Dannhauser, Former Chairman, Chairman, President & CEO, Chairman & CEO, KPMG LLP Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP New York Life Insurance Company George H. Walker Philippe P. Dauman Sherilyn McCoy Chairman & CEO, President & CEO, Viacom Inc. Chief Executive Officer, Avon Products, Inc. Neuberger Berman Group LLC Anthony J. De Nicola, Co-President, Bill McDermott Christopher J. Williams, Chairman & CEO, Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe Co-Chief Executive Officer, SAP AG The Williams Capital Group, L.P. James Dimon Harold McGraw, III Robert Wolf Chairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman, President & CEO, Chief Executive Officer, 32 Advisors, LLC The McGraw-Hill Companies Deborah C. Wright Irene M. Dorner President & CEO, HSBC Bank USA Eric M. Mindich Chairman & CEO, Carver Bancorp Inc. Chairman & CEO, Eton Park Capital Kathryn S. Wylde Joseph J. Echevarria, Jr. Management, L.P. President & CEO, Chief Executive Officer, Deloitte LLP Edward J. Minskoff Partnership for New York City Roger W. Ferguson President, Edward J. Minskoff Equities, Inc. Tim Zagat, CEO & Co-Chair, Zagat Survey LLC President & CEO, TIAA-CREF Thomas Montag Strauss Zelnick Laurence D. Fink Co-Chief Operating Officer, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman & CEO, BlackRock, Inc. Bank of America Corporation ZelnickMedia Corporation Alan H. Fishman Deanna M. Mulligan Mortimer B. Zuckerman Chairman, Ladder Capital Finance LLC President & CEO, Guardian Life Insurance Chairman & CEO, Boston Properties Jay S. Fishman Company of America Chairman & CEO, K. Rupert Murdoch Ex-Officio The Travelers Companies, Inc. Chairman & CEO, News Corporation William C. Dudley, President & CEO, Mark T. Gallogly Duncan L. Niederauer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Managing Principal, Centerbridge Partners Chief Executive Officer, NYSE Euronext David W. Heleniak James P. Gorman Richard D. Parsons Senior Advisor, Morgan Stanley Chairman & CEO, Morgan Stanley Senior Advisor, Providence Equity Partners Stephen R. Howe, Jr. Barry M. Gosin John Paulson, President, Paulson & Co., Inc. America’s Area Managing Partner, Chief Executive Officer, Charles E. Phillips, Jr. Ernst & Young LLP Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Chief Executive Officer, Infor Jonathan N. Grayer Founding chairman President & CEO, Weld North LLC Peter J. Powers, Chairman & CEO, Powers Global Strategies, LLC David Rockefeller
Contents 2 Introduction 4 Executive Summary 10 Section 1 — New York City 2002–2012: Steady Growth in an Era of Turbulence 16 Section 2 — The Bloomberg Principles: Long-Term Vision and Data-Driven Management 24 Section 3 — The Decade Ahead: Vulnerabilities and Challenges 38 Section 4 — The Blueprint 58 Conclusion 61 Endnotes 68 Acknowledgements
New York is the world’s premiere city of opportunity. It is the economic powerhouse that sustains America’s position of leadership in the global economy and provides a universal gateway to the upward mobility that is uniquely possible in this country. Mike Bloomberg, New York’s first “businessman mayor” in more than a century, was unique- ly qualified to preside over the city’s successful transition to the New Millennium economy. No mayor of New York governs without any detractors. But Mike Bloomberg’s supporters and critics generally agree that his financial and political independence enabled his admin- istration to attract exceptional talent to city government, make decisions on the basis of data-driven analysis, and to undertake long-term, often visionary, planning and investment. At the end of this year, Bloomberg will leave the city far more energized and entrepreneurial than he found it in 2001. This NYC Jobs Blueprint intends to lay the groundwork for the actions and partnerships that local government, organized labor, the private sector and civic groups will need to under- take in order to maintain New York’s status as the pre-eminent city of opportunity over the next decade. It focuses on the five pillars that support the contemporary urban platform for opportunity: more and better jobs; better educated and skilled workers; infrastructure that provides greater connectivity and accessibility; a safe and affordable living environment; and an efficient, disciplined and well-run city government. To prepare this Blueprint, the Partnership for New York City relied upon input from its mem- bers, who represent the city’s business leaders and private sector employers, as well as a number of respected urban experts. It draws on information and analysis provided by the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program and fact-based research and analytical support from McKinsey & Company. Together, we took a deep dive into demographic and economic data that has not been previously aggregated for comprehensive analysis. The result is a fresh look at the trends and developments of the last decade and projections that suggest how those will play out over the next ten years. The incoming Mayor will encounter an economic and fiscal context that will be different and, in many respects, more challenging than the Bloomberg era. There will be more competition from other cities and greater internal demands on City resources. There will likely be less aid from Washington, DC and Albany. To cope with these pressures, the next generation of municipal leaders will need to focus on what unites the diverse elements of the city, not what divides us. The aspirations of this plan are simple: a city economy that is growing in ways that generate more high quality jobs and a broader tax base; an excellent, fully integrated system of edu- cation, workforce development and job placement; and a safe, affordable and productive urban setting in which to live, work and build businesses. Laurence D. Fink Terry J. Lundgren Kathryn S. Wylde Chairman & CEO Chairman, President & CEO President & CEO BlackRock, Inc. Macy’s, Inc. Partnership for New York City Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partnership for New York City Partnership for New York City Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 3
A current snapshot of the New York City economy reveals a vibrant center of commercial activity, creative output, and innovation. Despite two recessions, a global financial crisis and the terrorist attack of 9/11, the economy is growing at an annual rate of 3%, outpacing that of the United States and most developed countries. New York ranks as America’s safest big city, its top tourist destination, and its second largest and fastest growing technology cluster outside of Silicon Valley. Population and private sector jobs numbers are at all time highs. The city has grown stronger as a result of of its largest employers, but the economy is more rigorous management of municipal diversifying at a fast pace. The most rapidly services and forward-looking investments growing contributors to economic output in public infrastructure and amenities. More over the past decade are high-tech, creative than 36% of the city’s land area has been industries and tourism, although their share rezoned1 and is ready to accommodate of the overall economy remains small. The development of at least 80,0002 new city’s waterfront has been rediscovered housing units and 41 million square feet of as an urban amenity. Neighborhoods new commercial space.3 Columbia, New and secondary business districts across York and Cornell Universities are poised to the five boroughs are more vibrant and invest tens of billions of private capital in attractive than at any time in modern history, significant institutional expansion, as are increasingly accessible by bikes, ferries and many of the city’s nonprofit healthcare, Bus Rapid Transit. Brooklyn has emerged as research and smaller educational institutions. the borough of choice for a new generation of urbanites and both Lower Manhattan and The financial services industry is still the the Far West Side are being transformed city’s economic engine and healthcare one into model live-work communities. Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 5
The NYC Jobs Blueprint outlines a set of recommendations for collaborative actions that the public and private sectors might take to insure that New York remains a strong, inclusive city of opportunity. Recent history and trends, however, suggest The next decade will bring more intense that the city’s economic strength and global and domestic competition. Industries forward momentum cannot be taken for that anchor the economy—financial and granted. Despite an uptick in the past two professional services, media and technology, years, population growth over the decade health and education, fashion and retail— has been weak. Unemployment is too high, are undergoing dramatic, often disruptive as is chronic poverty. Less than a third of change. Federal and state aid to the city is public high school graduates are deemed becoming less certain, while the demands college or career ready. Productivity—long for public infrastructure investment and the essence of the city’s value proposition municipal services are increasing, putting for business—is falling behind competing extraordinary pressure on the local tax base. business locations. The city is losing both This NYC Jobs Blueprint summarizes how upper and middle class families because of the city economy has developed through the high taxes and the rising cost of housing. last decade and how the policies employed Although the city is a hotbed of digital by the Bloomberg Administration were startups, few young companies are scaling used to achieve job growth and diversified up to more than 30 or 40 jobs in the city. In economic activity across the five boroughs; it fact, over the last decade, there was no net outlines the challenges to continued growth increase in the number of businesses em- that will confront the next Mayor; and, ploying more than 50 people locally.4 Rising finally, it outlines a set of recommendations costs of living and doing business and a dif- for collaborative actions that the public and ficult regulatory and legal environment are private sectors might take to insure that wearing on residents and employers alike. New York remains a strong, inclusive city of opportunity. 6 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
Measures of Success: What the City Must Strive to Achieve by 2020 Real GDP Growth Supporting rationale 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% International peer cities (Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Toronto, % CAGR per year since Modest Ambitious Sydney, Paris and Berlin) have grown the recession (2009– real GDP at 3.4% per year over the past 2011), up from 1.7% per decade (2002–2011), and have grown at year over the decade 4.3% since the Recession (2009–2011); (2002–2011) 3.8% is roughly the mid-point of these growth rates. Recent historical trend Productivity Growth Supporting rationale 1.1% 2.7% 3.0% The “modest” aspiration matches Silicon Valley’s productivity growth of 2.7% over the past decade (2002–2011); 3.0% is the % CAGR from Modest Ambitious productivity growth necessary to reach real 2002–2011 GDP growth of 3.8% while maintaining Recent historical trend employment growth relatively in line with historical norms (0.8% per year would be needed; New York City had 0.6% per year employment growth from 2002–2011). Middle-wage Job Creation Jobs Target Jobs Target Supporting rationale -2.3% +61,000 +101,000 61,000 jobs would restore the number of middle-wage jobs to 2005 levels, 101,000 % CAGR from 2008– Modest (4.3%) Ambitious (7.2%) jobs would restore to the 2011, 101,000 jobs peak of middle-wage jobs Recent historical trend in 2008. Unemployment Reduction Supporting rationale 9.5% 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% was the low during the last business cycle (12/07–6/09), both for as of January 2013 Modest Ambitious New York City and for the U.S. as a whole; 4.2% was Silicon Valley’s low Recent historical trend during the last business cycle (the lowest among peer U.S. cities). Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 7
Challenges Ahead Obstacles to Business and Job Growth Infrastructure Modernization and • High costs and a tough regulatory and legal Maintenance environment make New York City the most • There is an estimated $6.4 billion of additional expensive place in the country to build a capital work needed to achieve a state of good business. Overall costs are 1.5 times the national repair of infrastructure assets (exclusive of transit average; office rent and electricity are double and public housing stock). the national average. • The city’s infrastructure and transportation • New York City firms are not scaling up. Between systems require significant investment to 2003 and 2010, New York City saw no net address vulnerabilities revealed by Superstorm growth in the number of firms with 50 or more Sandy and to expand services to new centers of employees. Of the 220,000+ businesses in employment. the city, 195,000 or 88%, have fewer than 20 employees. Threat to the Middle Class • Job growth is primarily in high-wage and low- Education/Jobs Mismatch wage categories, with middle-wage jobs at risk • There is a growing shortage of qualified workers due to competitive pressures on employers and for available jobs. There will be an estimated availability of skilled workers at a lower cost in 21% increase in NYC jobs that require an other regions. associate degree or higher by 2020. • Middle class households (annual income of • In 2012, only 28.6% of students graduating $35,000–$75,000) cannot keep up with rapidly from public high school were deemed ready for rising housing costs. college or a career; almost 80% of those who were admitted to community college required Structural Budget Deficit/Reduced remedial education. Federal & State Aid • In 2011, there were twice as many graduates of • In 2015, the City is projected to have a budget local colleges and universities with degrees in shortfall of at least $2.4 billion. the humanities as in STEM majors, while the job • Reduced Federal and State aid is likely to demand is heavily weighted toward technology increase pressure on the local tax base. and math skills. • NYC’s tax burden is already the highest in the country. 8 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
NYC Jobs Blueprint: Key Proposals More & Better Jobs • Build Urban “Tech Campus” • Promote Tech Startups Developments in Every Borough • Champion Diversity in the Tech Sector • Replace Non-Strategic Economic • Establish Industry Partnerships Development Programs with for Economic Development Jobs Tax Credits • Create a Commercial Rent Tax Credit • Reinforce the Financial Services Sector • Establish a Resource Center • Accelerate Sector Diversity for Job Creators • Expand Export Intensity • Create a Permanent Innovation • Encourage New Manufacturing Advocacy Organization & Artisan Enterprise Better Educated & Skilled Workers • Launch NYC 2020 Jobs Challenge— • Coordinate Education, Workforce A Partnership between Employers Development & Job Placement & Educators Functions under a Chief Talent Officer • Establish Outcome-Based Criteria for Education Funding Greater Connectivity & Accessibility • Pursue Universal & Redundant • Redesign the Transportation Network Connectivity • Tap Private Sector Resources • Advocate for Improved Airports Safe & Affordable Living Environment • Optimize Existing Housing Resources • Improve Services in High • Reduce Costs of Housing Construction Crime Communities • Prioritize Long-Term Planning & Sustainability Efficient, Disciplined & Well-Run CITY Government • Eliminate the Structural Budget Deficit • Redesign Community Service Delivery • Recruit Strong, Tech-Savvy Managers for “Collective Impact“ • Reform Property Taxes • Mobilize Business-Labor-Citizen Lobbying • Evaluate City-Owned Property for Efforts to Support the City’s Agenda in Revenue Potential & Economic Washington, DC & Albany Development Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 9
Section 1 NYC 2002–2012: Steady Growth in an Era of Turbulence 10 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
During the past decade, the New York City economy has experienced steady growth, despite turbulence in the global and national economies. Innovation in core industries, effective marketing of the city and a burst of entrepreneurial startup activity have been the driving forces. The city’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP or companies, including digital media, e-commerce, economic output) grew at an average annual rate social networking and ad tech, which account of 1.7% over the past ten years and at over 3% for 85% of the city’s high-tech startups.13 Tech annually for the past three years, outpacing the entrepreneurs are attracted to New York because country’s 2.1% average rate of post-recession it is the center of the global advertising industry, GDP growth.5 it has a deep creative talent pool, and New York’s legacy industries—finance, media, retail, Today, at $583 billion, New York boasts the and professional services—represent the biggest largest city economy in the world.6 Of three market of first adapters of new technology. domestic peers (Chicago, Los Angeles, Silicon Valley) only California’s Silicon Valley, with its New York City now commands 13% of national concentration of technology companies, grew market share for economic output in the creative faster than New York during this period. The city’s sector.14 Growth in creative industries (4.1% per private sector added 357,000 jobs since 2003 year) was led by a surge in the film and broad- and, in 2012, the total number of private sector casting sector, which grew 6.2% over the decade, jobs reached 3.332 million, surpassing the 1969 thanks largely to a New York State 30% produc- employment peak of 3.251 million.7 tion tax credit and an aggressive marketing and services program run by the Mayor’s Office of The financial services industry dominates the Media & Entertainment.15 Since 2002, television city economy. Over the decade, it experienced production activity has increased by 82%, ampli- 2.3% annual growth in terms of its contribution fied by average industry salaries of $111,000.16 to the city’s GDP, although job numbers have been flat.8 Recent growth has come from the Tourism has grown steadily at an average rate asset management and insurance sectors, rather of 4.1% per year, with New York passing a new than the traditional mainstays of banking and milestone of 52 million visitors in 2012.17 Visitors securities. The asset management industry to the city generated an estimated $55.3 billion grew annually by 6.2% over the last decade and in total economic impact, with direct spending employment increased by 4.5%.9 In contrast, the reaching $36.9 billion.18 A record 33% share of all securities sector has experienced minimal growth U.S. visitors from abroad came to New York City.19 (0.5%) and has seen a decline in jobs (-2%).10 The volume of international visits from emerging New York’s share of global IPO listings has nearly markets has risen substantially since 2006 with halved over the last decade (currently 22% of the a 447% increase from Brazil, 442% from China, total) as Asia has grown in importance.11 and 258% from Argentina.20 The Metropolitan Museum of Art, for example, saw record breaking The fastest growing sectors in terms of economic attendance for the second year in a row with output are high-tech, creative industries (media, 6.28 million visitors in 2012.21 arts, fashion) and tourism. High-tech has led the way, with annual growth averaging 5.3% over High productivity, high salaries and multiplier the past decade.12 The city still accounts for effects are what make the tech, creative and only 3% of national high-tech industry output, tourism sectors such important contributors to leaving considerable room for further growth. economic growth. The centerpiece of local tech activity are internet Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 11
In terms of jobs, these sectors together only On the negative side, the last decade saw a represented 12.2%, or 462,000, of the city’s 4.5 pecentage point decline in contribution to jobs at the end of 2011.22 All these sectors offer GDP from several “traditional” sectors: construc- salaries that exceed average local earnings, tion/real estate, government, and education. The with tourism having the lowest average wage at healthcare sector, one of the city’s largest em- $52,000, which is still roughly $7,000 more a year ployers, has seen its share of GDP rising at 2.3% than the average city salary.23 Creative industries annually over the last decade.25 Growth has con- actually lost jobs over the decade at the rate of tinued despite hospital closures, with jobs shifting 0.5% a year largely due to flat employment in to outpatient care, but is heavily dependent on the media and publishing sector and continued federal and state funding that is clearly at risk. decline of traditional apparel manufacturing, Professional and business services, a significant which has fallen nearly 10% per year since 2002,24 creator of new jobs in the past decade, should (mass manufacture of apparel has relocated to also continue to grow, assuming their primary lower cost regions and is not coming back to the customers in financial services and other legacy city, as distinguished from fashion design and industries remain strong. While traditional manu- very limited, high end or sample production that facturing has continued to decline, technology- is thriving in New York.) enabled “new” manufacturing shows promise, with a number of entrepreneurial startups calling New York City home. EXHIBIT 1.1: NYC GDP Growth Has Outpaced Domestic Peers and the Nation, but Lagged International Competitors GDP 2002–20111 150 +3.4 +4.3 120 +1.7 +3.1 +1.6 +2.1 +1.4 +2.2 90 2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Post 9/11 Economic Great Post-recession Recovery Expansion Recession Recovery International peers2 U.S. % CAGR, 2002–20114 NYC Domestic peers3 % CAGR, 2009–2011 NOTES: 1) Real GDP, Indexed to 2002 2) International peers: Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Toronto, Sydney, Paris, and Berlin 3) Domestic peers: Chicago, Los Angeles, and Silicon Valley 4) The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is the average annual growth rate (positive or negative), or the year-over-year growth rate, calculated by taking the nth root of the total percentage growth rate, where n is the number of years in the time period being considered. SOURCE: McKinsey analysis of data from the Canback Global Income Distribution Database (C-GIDD) & Moody’s Analytics 12 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
EXHIBIT 1.2A: NYC’s Economy Has Grown but Jobs in Major Industries Have Been Lost Over the Last Decade GDP1, 2011 % CAGR2 Employment, 2011 % CAGR2 $ Billions 2002–2011 Thousands 2002–2011 Finance & Insurance 131 2.3 323 -0.3 Healthcare 40 2.3 590 1.7 Information 52 5.1 169 -0.1 Business Services 91 1.1 597 0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 24 3.4 338 2.7 Retail 21 3.2 313 1.8 Government 47 0.6 548 -0.4 Construction 12 -2.2 112 -0.4 Education 10 0.3 176 2.3 Real Estate 93 0 118 0.4 Manufacturing 9 -2.0 75 -6.6 Other Services 12 -0.4 164 0.8 Other 41 2.1 258 1.4 TOTAL 583 1.7 3,783 0.6 NOTES: 1) Nominal GDP 2) Real GDP SOURCE: McKinsey analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) & Moody’s Analytics EXHIBIT 1.2B: New Economy and High-growth Sectors Saw a Greater Rate of GDP and Jobs Growth Over the Decade than all Industries Combined GDP1, 2011 % CAGR2 Employment, 2011 % CAGR2 $ Billions 2002–2011 Thousands 2002–2011 Creative 58 4.1 224 -0.5 High-tech 27 5.3 98 1.4 Tourism 12 4.1 120 1.4 TOTAL NYC 583 1.7 3,783 0.6 NOTES: The creative, high-tech and tourism sectors were created through McKinsey’s analysis of traditional industry sectors to show the share of jobs and impact on GDP by aggregating 4 digit NCAIS codes. Creative includes relevant codes from the fashion, media and arts industries. Tourism includes codes from the arts, entertainment & recreation industries as well as from accommodations, travel and sightseeing. High-tech includes codes from the information, technical services, computer manufacturing and telecommunications. 1) Nominal GDP 2) Real GDP SOURCE: McKinsey analysis of data from BLS & Moody’s Analytics Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 13
Resilience in the Face of the competitive stakes, despite far greater finan- cial and policy support from their national govern- Crisis and Competition ment than New York gets from Washington, DC. New York has demonstrated remarkable resilience The 2012 Cities of Opportunity benchmarking during a decade marked by terrorism, recession, study, issued by the Partnership for New York City financial crisis and a technological revolution that and PwC, ranks New York and London in a virtual is transforming the city’s anchor industries. The tie for economic advantage, with the real threat destruction of the World Trade Center inflicted to both cities coming from the emerging financial massive economic damage and accelerated a centers of Asia and, in New York’s case, smaller financial downturn that, in 2001, was already domestic cities like Austin and Seattle.27 underway. Yet New York’s economy bounced The 2008 financial crisis and the Great Reces- back, and GDP grew 3.8% annually from 2003 sion interrupted real estate development and to 2007.26 An ambitious and comprehensive construction activity across the city, delaying the rebuilding program, financed by a combination financing, marketing and build out of important of government and private investment, was projects like the new World Trade Center site, responsible for this rapid recovery. Atlantic Yards, Hudson Yards, Alexandria Cen- After 9/11, there were indications that London ter (the city’s first science park) and hundreds was surpassing New York as the global financial of smaller residential and commercial projects, capital. Fear of London’s competitive edge was most of which are finally moving forward. Some reinforced when that city won the 2012 Summer 100,000 New Yorkers lost their jobs during the Olympics bid. But London failed to pull away in national 2008–2009 recession, the city lost several EXHIBIT 1.3: Financial Services Employment Was Nearly Flat Over the Decade, but Remains an Essential Asset 2002 Employment 2011 Employment % Change, 2002–2011 Thousands 330.9 Finance & Insurance -2.57 322.4 114.2 Real Estate and +3.5 Rental & Leasing 118.2 445.1 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT -1.01 440.6 FINANCE AND INSURANCE SUBSECTORS1 Thousands Credit Intermediation 92.6 -4.86 and Related Activities 88.1 Securities, Commodities and 169.5 +0.35 Related Activities 170.1 Insurance Carriers, Brokerages, 58.3 and Related Activities -5.49 55.1 NOTE: Funds, Trusts, and 8.2 1) Numbers may not sum due to rounding. -23.17 Other Financial Vehicles 6.3 SOURCE: NYS Department of Labor 14 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
The city is in a position of strength compared to global and domestic competitors, but this could change quickly. major financial institutions, and the brand of Wall ployed or underemployed—an increase of nearly Street was tarnished.28 Although Wall Street was 7% from 2007.31 Residents who are ill-prepared the epicenter of the financial system meltdown, for the high-tech work environment, or lack other New York rebounded faster than the rest of the skills required by employers, increasingly are in country. The city gained 250,000 jobs between temporary and part-time jobs or freelance assign- 2009 and 2011, 150,000 more than were lost, and ments, often earning less than is required to live at twice the national rate of yearly job growth.29 in a high cost urban environment. Today, unemployment remains high, nearly In response to the seeming contradiction between five percentage points more than its lowest levels robust job creation and high unemployment, the during the last business cycle and 1.5 percentage Independent Budget Office (IBO) identified the points higher than the national average.30 Some impact of a growing labor force participation rate, 15.8% of New Yorkers are estimated to be unem- driven by an increase of nearly 60,000 new city residents and re-entry of job seekers who had previously dropped out of the market.32 In short, employment grew, but not fast enough to absorb EXHIBIT 1.4: NYC’s Unemployment Rate Remains High all the new job seekers. 12 Today New York is navigating a new round of challenges, both natural (Superstorm Sandy) and man-made (fiscal pressures at all levels of government). The city’s economic performance is 10 good, but not unaffected by national and global 9.5 forces that have increased economic inequality 9.5 and poverty across the United States and most of the developed world. In 2011, roughly 20.9% 9.1 8 of New Yorkers—or 1.73 million people—were 7.9 officially classified as poor, an increase of 2.2% 7.6 from two years earlier, compared to a national poverty rate of 15.0% that grew 0.7% in the same 6 period.33 New York has a lower poverty rate than the nation’s five other largest cities, but its poverty statistics are nonetheless troubling.34 4 In sum, the city is in a position of strength 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 compared to global and domestic competitors. But this could change quickly, and the next city NYC Chicago administration must have a plan and a network of Silicon Valley U.S. partnerships in place in order to respond quickly LA and effectively to the inevitable challenges ahead, Unemployment Rate (%) as of Jan 2013 which are discussed in Section 3. NOTE: NYC defined as 5 boroughs; Silicon Valley defined as San Jose MSA & San Francisco MSA; Chicago and LA defined as their respective MSAs. SOURCE: McKinsey analysis of BLS & Moody’s Analytics Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 15
Section 2 The Bloomberg Principles: Long-Term Vision and Data-Driven Management 16 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
The Bloomberg Administration governed with a long-term vision for the city in a global context and an immediate focus on public safety and “livability” as the baseline conditions for economic growth. It advanced this agenda by leveraging the city’s many assets, including an extraordinary concentration and diversity of talent, multiple global industry headquarters, and a cluster of great universities, medical research and cultural institutions. The Administration drew heavily upon ideas and mitments.35 At the same time, to encourage resources from the private and nonprofit sectors, private investment and job creation, it in- resulting in economic development activity far vested heavily in infrastructure and community beyond what city government could have accom- improvements associated with sports facilities plished on its own. In the process, the City gained and other redevelopment projects, which critics “stickiness” with industry leaders and emerging suggest provide relatively modest economic entrepreneurs that helped the local economy benefits for the city. weather the turbulence of the past decade. • The Administration aggressively rezoned the Realizing the vision of New York City as a center city’s land area and supported eminent domain of global innovation and economic growth was actions to assemble sites for private develop- a shared mission of the whole Bloomberg team, ment while carrying out down-zoning actions, not just the Economic Development Corporation imposing design criteria and expanding historic (EDC). This was reinforced by having the Deputy preservation designations that have reduced Mayor for Economic Development also oversee development potential in communities across the Departments of City Planning, Finance, Small the city. Business Services (SBS), Transportation, and • In 2002, the Administration pushed through Housing. an 18.49% property tax increase to deal with the revenue shortfall and security needs con- As the Bloomberg mayoralty ends, there is fronting the city after 9/11.36 As the economy concern in the business community that the improved, it established budget reserves to next Mayor will tip in the direction of one policy avoid income tax increases and issued property extreme, toward a more intrusive, higher cost tax rebates to homeowners, but simultaneously government without an offsetting commitment allowed commercial property tax assessments to quality of life and pro-growth policies. Rather and fines on small business to skyrocket. than governing from the political right or the left, Bloomberg seemed to follow his instincts. For In short, the Administration has often strayed example: from laissez-faire, pro-business orthodoxy. But it has maintained the confidence of job creators by • The Administration toughened up on discre- championing the city’s key industries and great tionary subsidies to business and inserted institutions and by focusing on the safety and serious enforcement and clawback conditions quality of life issues that are essential to a healthy into pre-existing tax incentive programs that business climate. yielded $85 million in returns to the city from companies that failed to meet their com- Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 17
Focus on Geographic public amenities. Targeted public investments sought to maintain manufacturing and shipping and Sector Diversity uses in select locations, such as the Brooklyn The 9/11 terrorist attack illustrated the need Navy Yard, the new Brooklyn Cruise Ship to make the city less vulnerable to the “boom Terminal, the Brooklyn Army Terminal and New and bust” cycles of Wall Street and to create York Container Terminal. In the process, ferry new centers of economic activity outside the services were expanded to provide connectivity highly concentrated Manhattan central business to areas that were poorly served by public transit. districts where an attack, a power failure, or the Moving inland, there were also an unprecedented paralysis of growing traffic congestion could number of City-sponsored planning and rezoning inflict disproportionate damage on the entire five- initiatives to stimulate redevelopment in places borough economy. like Downtown Brooklyn, Jamaica Center, Central Harlem and, most recently, Midtown East. Geographic diversity initiatives were incorpo- rated in the vision for the city’s 2012 Olympics The results of far-reaching planning, zoning and bid, based on a plan for turning derelict sites capital investment activity have been substantial. across the five boroughs into Olympic venues Between 1992 and 2001, Brooklyn, Queens, and permanent new hubs of economic activity.37 the Bronx and Staten Island accounted for only The waterways that historically separated the 18% of New York City’s real GDP growth.38 city’s boroughs were reconceived as connectors By 2012, the “outer” borough contribution and the waterfront as an asset to be reclaimed. had increased to 29% of GDP growth, driven The Olympic bid failed, but the ambitious plans by growth in Brooklyn and Queens.39 From for building out the Far West Side, as well as the 2002–2011, job growth was greater outside Brooklyn and Queens waterfronts, proceeded. Manhattan than within it, with the Bronx seeing more than double (11.7%), and Brooklyn nearly City-initiated rezoning actions reversed decades triple (16.4%) the rate of growth in Manhattan of inactivity on the formerly industrial waterfront. (5.7%) from 2002 to 2011.40 The number of local Long derelict sites such as Hudson Yards, Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) grew by Greenpoint-Williamsburg, Brooklyn, and Hunters 50% since 2002 to 67, mostly outside Manhattan, Point, Queens, attracted major private investment investing over $100 million annually in services to in commercial and residential redevelopment and neighborhood commercial strips.41 Brooklyn & Queens Have Increased EXHIBIT 2.1: Their Contribution to NYC’s GDP Growth Over the Last Decade % Contribution to GDP Growth, 1992–2011 13 +6 1992–2001 Queens 7 2002–2011 12 Brooklyn +5 % of Change in GDP1 7 3 Bronx 0 3 1 Staten Island -1 2 71 Manhattan -11 82 NOTE: 1) Real GDP SOURCE: McKinsey analysis of data from Moody’s Analytics 18 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
Creating a Life Sciences Cluster New York is home to the nation’s largest concentration of world-class medical research institutions and top scien- tists, but this has never translated into development of a local life sciences industry. A 2001 study by the Partner- ship Fund for New York City (Partnership Fund) identified only about 2,000 local jobs in commercial life sciences, as compared to 71,000 in Silicon Valley and 25,000 in Greater Boston.45 Discoveries by New York scientists were being commercialized elsewhere, largely because there had been no commitment by government or the medical research institutions to create a local industry cluster. The Partner- ship Fund study identified two obstacles to development of a life sciences cluster: the anti-commercial culture of the city’s academic medical centers; and the lack of commer- cial lab space to accommodate life science companies.46 The Bloomberg Administration, working with the Partnership Fund and leaders of medical research institutions, set out to address both issues. The City and State provided incentives for development of the first commercial science park, the Alexandria Center, on the City-owned Bellevue Hospital campus. In addition In addition to diversification of economic activ- to a long-term lease and property tax abatements, the ity across the five boroughs, there have been City provided infrastructure funding to move sewers, an deliberate efforts to support the growth of new ambulance entrance and make other site improvements. industries. To spur startup activity, the City The State provided $33 million in grants and other tax provided modest support for a dozen high-tech incentives.47 The private developer committed $700 million business incubators that have housed nearly 500 startups.42 It has launched “jump start” and “boot to build and finance what will ultimately be a million camp” programs for entrepreneurs, promotional square foot facility.48 At the same time, the Partnership competitions, and networking activities that have Fund was working with the major research institutions to added a new dimension to New York’s tradition- encourage industry partnerships, entrepreneurship and ally corporate business culture. These programs local commercialization. have been synergistic with land use and public infrastructure investments on Manhattan’s West Alexandria’s first tower was completed in 2011 and the Side, in Brooklyn, and Long Island City, helping second tower is under construction, housing research to generate “buzz” and creating clusters of new labs of Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Roche Pharmaceuticals and economy businesses in long stagnant areas. including both conference and incubator facilities. The EDC has seen its staff and responsibilities Alexandria Center represents the core of an emerging life expanded significantly beyond the agency’s sciences cluster in the city that is reinforced by public and historic configuration. They have established philanthropic investments in nonprofit initiatives such as industry desks and working relationships with business leaders, hired consulting firms to the Structural Biology Center, the Stem Cell Foundation, develop ideas for enhancing key sectors, and and the Genome Center. Employment in the sector created hundreds of initiatives to demonstrate reached more than 11,500 by 2010.49 While still small, jobs support for core industries and to promote the in life sciences have a huge economic multiplier effect and emerging entrepreneurial ecosystem.43 EDC has cluster activity further strengthens New York’s educational initiated outreach to foreign international markets and healthcare institutions that employ 260,000 New that were likely sources of foreign investment and turned a favorable spotlight on companies Yorkers and attract more than $2.3 billion in federal from around the country and the world that were research grants annually.50 expanding in New York.44 Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 19
It is conventional wisdom that government is not The presence of 45 U.S. Fortune 500 financial and good at picking winners in the economic devel- corporate headquarters operations is the basis of opment arena and the record of direct govern- New York’s global economic clout.51 They are the ment investment in business is unimpressive. But magnetic force that attracts other job creators, the experience of the past decade demonstrates such as professional and business services, how government can invest intelligently in the software application developers, and foreign infrastructure and supportive environment that companies. Aside from federal “Liberty Bonds” encourages business formation and growth if its that were used to reinforce the corporate and decisions are informed by private sector expertise financial sector after the security risks generated and rigorous market analysis, as opposed to wish- by 9/11, the Administration has relied largely on ful thinking or politics. cultivation and advocacy as the preferred tools for corporate retention. While many politicians bash big banks, Mayor Bloomberg has employed Leveraging the City’s his bully pulpit to argue that nothing can replace the solid middle-income jobs and contributions to Assets the city tax rolls of the financial services industry. The most successful economic development Mayoral attention and support has also been lav- initiatives are those that effectively reinforce and ished on other key industries: media, information leverage the city’s economic assets. In New York, services, health, education, fashion and retail, arts these assets include the concentration of global and culture, hospitality and tourism. The busi- headquarters companies in multiple industries, ness community appreciates this support and the world class educational, medical and cultural insti- result is a much stronger commitment to stay and tutions, the growing entrepreneurial community, grow in New York. and the city’s prominent global brand. EXHIBIT 2.2: NYC is Home to the Highest Concentration of US Fortune 500 Companies in the Country Number of US Fortune 500 Headquarters by City Minneapolis 9 New York Chicago Silicon Valley 8 45 30 6 St. Louis 8 Cincinnati Los 5 7 Charlotte Angeles 10 Dallas 10 Top Cities by HQ Revenue Atlanta $ Billions, 2011 22 New York 1,234 Silicon Valley 920 Houston Houston 500 SOURCE: McKinsey analysis of data from Fortune magazine 20 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
The Administration has also effectively exploited making credible claims that New York City is and enhanced New York City’s iconic brand. the greenest, healthiest and safest big city in NYC & Company was restructured and received America, if not the world. serious resources to launch an international Big ideas started early with introduction of the tourism marketing campaign. They helped carry 311 system, where a live person responds to out high profile events, such as The Gates exhibit questions and complaints about city services in Central Park and Fashion’s Night Out, and (and just about anything else). Nearly 22 million to develop new international destinations such annual calls are logged by 311, allowing City as the High Line and Times Square. A retention agencies to anticipate and respond to issues far partnership featured a marketing alliance with more effectively.53 Along with other tools, such JetBlue, “New York’s Hometown Airline.” as Citywide Performance Reporting Online, 311 Spurred by these creative efforts, the tourism resulted in a better managed city, where resource industry has grown from 320,000 jobs in 2011 to allocation and performance evaluation can be an estimated 356,000 jobs today.52 largely data-driven. PlaNYC 2030 was another ambitious undertaking, The pursuit of big ideas engaging representatives of industry, labor, The Bloomberg Administration has pursued— environmental groups and communities to and largely achieved—a series of big, audacious help develop and implement a long-term plan goals: topping 50 million tourists, establishing for the city’s future as a sustainable urban New York as a high-tech innovation capital, and environment.54 The plan proposed to reduce EXHIBIT 2.3: High-tech and Other New Sectors on the Rise While Anchor Industries Remain Vital Assets Change in GDP Growth % CAGR, 2002–2011 Size of the Bubble = 2011 Contribution to NYC GDP 7 High Growth Assets 6 High-tech Tourism 5 Healthcare Creative 4 Food Retail Finance & 3 Insurance Administrative services 2 Wholesale 1 Professional & U.S. GDP Growth Rate Government Engineering services 0 Education Construction & -1 Other Real Estate -2 -3 Low Growth Legacy -4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 2011 Degree of Specialization NOTE: Degree of specialization is calculated by dividing the % of NYC sector employment by the % of U.S. sector employment; value > 1 indicates higher NYC job concentration than the U.S. SOURCE: McKinsey analysis of data from BLS & Moody’s Analytics Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 21
the city’s 2005 carbon footprint by 30% by 2030, through a the $2 billion extension of the #7 subway line—the transit variety of long-term initiatives that range from building code investment with the largest projected economic return of any reform to upgrading wastewater treatment plants. More that is underway in the city.65 than 15% reduction in emissions has already been achieved, In the business community, no current set of projects are representing the lowest per capita greenhouse gas emissions considered more important than those launched under among major U.S. cities.55 Ultimately, this will translate into the Applied Sciences initiative, through which the City has reduced energy costs and a more globally competitive city. An established partnerships with great universities that will more important aspect of this effort was the creation, by local law, of than double the number of engineering graduate students and the Mayor’s Office of Long Term Planning and Sustainability, faculty in the city, insuring its future status as a global center of which is charged with the pursuit of objectives that transcend innovation. short-term thinking.56 The Administration has also taken substantial ownership of Quality of life initiatives have done much to transform the workforce development and training, moving beyond the stereotype of New York from a dense, cold urban center to a city’s traditional role as a passive conduit for state and federal highly livable city. The City has created more than 300 miles funding. Through SBS, it established eighteen Workforce1 of bike lanes57, as well as pedestrian-friendly streetscapes Career Centers that, working with nonprofit and private and new public spaces. Since 2002, the City has added more contractors, have placed more than 160,000 New Yorkers in than 730 acres of new parkland and over 75% of New Yorkers jobs––more than half in the last three years.66 With private now live within a ten-minute of walk of a park.58 New Yorkers philanthropic funding, the Mayor created the Center for have a record high life expectancy rate, 2.2 years longer than Economic Opportunity, to explore innovative solutions to the the national average.59 Improvements in the public education education, health and employment issues confronting the city’s system and expanded school choice have made the city more poorest residents. When it comes to public and undergraduate family-friendly. Major crimes have been cut in half.60 For many education, there has been a greater focus on preparing employers, overall livability and the desire of talent to be here students for employment in growth sectors where there is an have supplanted business needs as the primary reason for unmet demand for skilled labor. The City has partnered with keeping jobs in the city. the City University of New York (CUNY) and the private sector There has been a record $88 billion of improvements to roads, to launch several 9–14 schools and is also rolling out a software sewers and public space and buildings.61 Through the New engineering pilot program in 20 schools modeled after the Housing Marketplace Plan, the city is building or preserving Academy for Software Engineering that opened in 2012.67 165,000 affordable housing units (15,000 to 18,000 annually).62 In sum, the Bloomberg Administration will leave a solid Private, market-rate housing production is slowly rebounding foundation of industry relationships, greater geographic and from the recession, with the Buildings Department issuing sector diversity, and “innovation economy” initiatives for the about 10,600 residential construction permits in 2012, or 31% next Mayor to build on. It has invested heavily in infrastructure of the 2008 peak of 33,910.63 and amenities, parks and streetscape improvements, and has Lower Manhattan has been transformed into a world class live- launched sustainability initiatives that will define the param- work community and the city’s fastest growing neighborhood, eters of the city’s physical and economic growth for decades to with population doubling in the decade after 9/11.64 Through come. But changing demographics, increasing fiscal challenges a novel tax increment financing scheme, the City captured and global competition will require a new blueprint for jobs, benefits from the value created by the Hudson Yards rezoning the outline of which is suggested in the final section. on the Far West Side, and is using proceeds to help finance 22 NYC Jobs Blueprint Partnership for New York City
Applied Sciences NYC Applied Sciences NYC is a “game-changing” • NYU-Center for Urban Science & Progress investment to insure that the city has sufficient (CUSP)70: New York University leads an engineering talent to be a global center of international consortium that will convert an old innovation in the 21st Century. Silicon Valley has Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) nearly four times the concentration of engineering building in Downtown Brooklyn into 150,000 jobs as a percentage of its workforce than New York square feet of classrooms, offices and lab space, City does.68 with another 40,000 square feet dedicated as an incubator for businesses spun off by CUSP- In December 2010, the city issued a challenge to related research. CUSP is projected to create top institutions from around the world to build a 2,200 construction jobs, 900 permanent jobs new or expanded applied sciences and engineering and generate 200 spin-off companies––creating campus in New York City. The competition winner another 4,600 permanent jobs. would be awarded a package of city-owned land, up to $100 million of City capital, and the full • Columbia Institute for Data Sciences & support of the City to make the project a reality. Engineering: Columbia University will expand The City received seven qualifying responses from its engineering space by 44,000 square feet and 17 world-class institutions and selected three create 75 new faculty positions, and create five winners: new areas of study and research which will be crucial to New York City’s innovation economy in • Cornell Tech: A partnership of Cornell University the 21st century, including a New Media Center, and the Technion University of Israel will invest a Smart Cities Center, a Health Analytics Center, $2 billion in a two million square foot campus a Cyber Security Center, and a Financial Analytics on Roosevelt Island that will house hundreds of Center. faculty and staff and 2,000 full-time graduate students. Over the next three decades, Cornell Over the next three decades, these projects will Tech is projected to create 20,000 construction collectively generate more than $33 billion in jobs, 8,000 permanent jobs, and generate nearly overall economic impact, 48,000 Jobs, and nearly 600 spin-off companies resulting in tens of 1,000 spin-off companies. Additionally, the new thousands of additional jobs. The campus will facilities will more than double the existing number also create a $150 million venture fund for New of full-time graduate engineering students in New York startups.69 Classes are already underway in York City to over 5,600 and more than double temporary quarters at the Google offices. engineering faculty in New York City to over 700.71 Partnership for New York City NYC Jobs Blueprint 23
You can also read