NIGERIA'S SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PERFORMANCE - Past, Present, and Future MANAGERIALLY
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NIGERIA’S SOCIOECONOMIC AND
DEMOGRAPHIC PERFORMANCE
Past, Present, and Future
October 2019
MANAGERIALLY CANBACK CONSULTING
RELEVANT Boston, Massachusetts
ANALYTICALLY www.canback.com
ROBUST +1-617-399-1300
A member of The Economist Group
The Canback Global Income Distribution Database (C-GIDD) is used to quantify
market size and demand drivers. C-GIDD is the only database of its kind
C-GIDD COVERAGE EXAMPLES OF C-GIDD USES
• The world's only database with complete subnational data • Quantify number of households at specific income or
series socioeconomic levels
• GDP, household income, size of income brackets, size of • Compare consumer market sizes across geographies in a
socioeconomic classes, population uniform way
• 213 countries, 697 subdivisions and 997 cities • Merge with category or sales data to spot new or under-
developed opportunities
• Subnational: 2004-2029
National: 1970-2039
EXPLANATORY POWER OF C-GIDD
Demand variance explained by income above
C-GIDD MODULES category-specific thresholds
Televison sets
Oil consumption
C-GIDD Cellphone subscribers
C-GIDD
income Internet users
economic,
distribution data demographic, C-GIDD Personal computers
social and benchmark McDonald's restaurants
Available as a products and Milk consumption
psychographic
commercial service services data Cash machines (ATMs)
data
at cgidd.com Insurance premiums
Internal to Canback Internal to Canback Bank deposits
Electricity consumption
Airline passengers
0.00 0.50 1.00
R2
2
C-GIDD covers 213 countries, 697 subdivisions and 997 cities
3C-GIDD sub-Saharan Africa edition covers 49 countries, 329 subdivisions, and
356 cities (>100,000 inhabitants)
4Nigeria is the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa and relies heavily on oil
exports. Inequality remains serious problem of the nation
STRUCTURE OF DOCUMENT KEY FINDINGS
• Nigeria is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of population and GDP*
Country overview • The economy relies on oil and gas which accounts for nearly 20% of GDP. Apart from petroleum, Nigeria’s other
natural resources include natural gas, tin, iron ore, coal, limestone, niobium, lead, zinc and arable land
• Nigeria’s strong growth rates over the past decade have been dampened by the recession, which began in in 2016
• Nigeria has seen an increase in finance/public administration’s and oil/gas/mining/utilities’ share of supply-side GDP, at
GDP and economic the expense of agriculture. The country is now less industry-oriented than most of its peers
trends • On the demand side, Nigeria largely relies on household consumption while international trade contributes less to
GDP. Minerals and organic chemicals take up almost 100% of Nigeria’s export
• The primary risks are associated with poor infrastructure, security, and corruption
• Over the next ten years, the branded goods consuming class will grow by almost 3% in CAGR
• The marginalized class will experience constant growth in the following decades and will comprise 73% of the
Socioeconomics and
population in 2029, causing by growing wealth inequality
demographics
• The youth population will dominate Nigeria’s population growth throughout the next ten years, although its share of the
total will decline
• Lagos, Abuja, Idaban, and Port Harcourt are driving the Nigerian transformation
City evolution
• More than half of Nigeria’s population lives in urban areas and Nigeria is expected to have continued urban growth
* Constant purchasing power parity dollars
Source: Canback analysis 5Since entering a period of recession in 2016, Nigeria has recovered somewhat but
is far from historical growth rates
• Federal presidential republic
• President: Muhammadu Buhari Niger Chad
• Capital: Abuja
• Population: 195.9 million Kano
• Working-age population: 53.6%
• Urban population: 51.0% Kaduna
• Gini coefficient: 43.0 Benin
• Currency: Nigerian Naira (NGN)
Abuja
• NGN 325.6 = USD 1.00 Nigeria
• Major ethnic groups: Hausa (27.4%), Igbo (14.1%), Yoruba (13.9%), Fulani (6.3%), Ibibio
(2.2%), Tiv (2.2%), Ijaw (2%), Kanuri (1.7%)
Ibadan
• Religious affiliations: Muslim (50%), Christian (40%), Indigenous beliefs (10%)
• Official language: English Lagos Benin
• Other major languages: Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo (Ibo), Fulfulde
Port Harcourt
• GDP origins: Cameroon
− Services (57%)
− Industry (22%) Atlantic Ocean
− Agriculture (21%)
• Nigeria's long-term economic performance will pick up HISTORIC DEVELOPMENT OF KEY INDICATORS
moderately as the Federal Government further
implements public and social investment projects '09'-'19'
Indicator* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CAGR
• The growing importance of services has bolstered
growth in the economy. GDP growth 6.9% 7.8% 4.9% 4.3% 5.4% 6.3% 2.7% -1.6% 0.8% 1.9% 2.1% 3.4%
• With the largest population and economy in Sub- Household
30.4% -9.1% -2.7% -0.1% 19.7% 0.4% 1.0% -5.9% -0.5% 1.9% 2.1% 0.4%
Saharan Africa, high market potential is constrained by income growth
extremely low income levels for the majority of the Inflation 12.5% 13.7% 10.8% 12.2% 8.5% 8.0% 9.0% 15.7% 16.5% 12.1% 11.3% 11.8%
population Pop growth 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7%
* GDP and income are measured in local 2010 constant currency
Source: World Bank; IMF; CIA World Factbook; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 6In sub-Saharan Africa and its comparison group, Nigeria is both the largest
country in terms of population and GDP**
POPULATION GDP* GDP**
2019, millions 2019, B USD 2019,B PPP$
479.5 1,044.6
Nigeria 201.0
696.3
South Africa 58.1 433.0
164.4
170.3
Kenya 52.2
175.5
65.2 99.9
Angola 31.8 86.7
97.8
Ghana 30.1
76.5
Cote d’Ivoire 25.5 45.6
Cameroon 25.3 39.4
3,671.5
Other Africa
894.9 1,301.6
* Constant 2010 values at the 2010 exchange rate
** Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 7Nigeria’s GDP supply structure has been stable in the past forty years, with
service sector taking larger share comparing to its comparison countries
GDP SUPPLY BREAKDOWN OVER TIME GDP SUPPLY BREAKDOWN – COMPARISON COUNTRIES
1979-2019e, % of GDP 2019e, % of GDP
3%
9%
Agriculture 18% 16% 12%
21% 21% 21% 24%
33% 13%
6%
13%
Construction 10% 3% 4%
8% 5% 6%
8% 9% 16% 4%
Manufacturing 7%
12% 14% 6%
Oil/gas/mining and utilities 11% 10% 25% 15%
19% 5%
9%
13% 9% 8%
12% 3% 10%
Transport, storage, and
17% 7% 5%
communication 11% 10%
9%
21%
20% 13%
Wholesale, retail trade, 9%
13% 21%
restaurants, and hotels 16% 18%
44%
Finance and 27% 29% 30%
25% 25% 21%
public administration 21% 18%
1979 1999 2019e Ghana Cameroon Cote Kenya Angola South
d’Ivoire Africa
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 8In the last forty years, household consumption has grown to cover more of
Nigeria’s demand-side GDP, while government spending has declined
GDP DEMAND BREAKDOWN OVER TIME GDP DEMAND BREAKDOWN – COMPARISON COUNTRIES
1979-2019e, % of GDP 2019e, % of GDP
Household
35%
consumption 72%
58% 66% 54% 59%
78% 70% 79%
Government 9% 11%
35% 14% 21%
consumption 7%
22% 11%
12% 18% 14% 30% 19%
23%
7% 19%
Investment 26% 36% 34% 30%
28%
37% 15% 19% 14%
Exports 13% 14% -23% -25% -22% -28%
-39% -32%
Imports -9% -13% -14%
1979 1999 2019e Ghana Cameroon Cote d’Ivoire Kenya Angola South Africa
Nigeria’s household consumption experienced tremendous increase from
1978 to 1998, which significantly shrinks the percentages of government
consumption and investment. Besides Kenya, Nigeria’s household
consumption overpasses the average of its comparison countries (66.5%)
in 2018, but other sectors appear significantly weaker.
Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 9Nigeria’s export is almost fully dependent on oil while imports largely depend on minerals and vehicles.
There is a big difference between its exports and import partners
NIGERIA EXPORTS BREAKDOWN MAIN TRADE PARTNERS
2019e 2019
Others Exports Imports
100% = USD 63.4 B 100% = USD 63.4 B
3%
India 16.2% China 13.6%
Netherlands 10.9% Netherlands 8.0%
Spain 10.3% Korea, South 7.6%
France 8.1% Belgium 5.9%
97%
South Africa 6.5% USA 5.2%
Oil
NIGERIA IMPORTS BREAKDOWN USA 6.2% India 3.7%
2019e
Animal products Manufactured goods Indonesia 4.3% France 2.0%
Metal products
Inorganic and 3%
5% Sweden 3.9% Germany 1.9%
man made chemicals 3% Minerals and organic
7%
chemicals United Kingdom 3.7% United Kingdom 1.8%
37%
Plant products 11%
Brazil 3.3% Russia 1.7%
Other 26.6% Other 18.1%
34% Discrepancy 0.0% Discrepancy 30.6%
Vehicles and machinery
Source: UN Comtrade; Canback analysis
* Discrepancy comes from difference between C-GIDD and UN Comtrade 10Political instability, currency fluctuation and economic structure risk are among the
serious challenges faced by Nigerian government
TOPIC RISK
Economic growth is well below potential, as Federally retained revenue is among the lowest in the world, at less than 4%
Sovereign Risk is hydrocarbons output, from which the of GDP. If debt-servicing costs continue to rise sharply, the sovereign may be
government gets most of its revenue faced with the choice of defaulting or ceasing to provide basic services
Ongoing distortions in the foreign- A legacy of currency and capital controls and the multiple-exchange-rate
Currency Risk exchange market and political interference regime increase transfer and convertibility risks. If oil prices were to crash,
will continue to weigh on currency risk restrictions could again come into force
The banks are highly exposed in particular to the energy sector, which leaves
Non-performing loans increased during the
Banking Sector Risk the banking sector highly vulnerable to price fluctuations on the world crude
2016-17 recession
market
Presidential and legislative elections on
High political, social and religious tensions drive serious outbreaks of violence:
passed peacefully in the main, but the
Frequent and extreme violence can often be seen in the north; poverty and
Political Risk result underscored an endemic geopolitical
underdevelopment are common themes, as is political interference for self-
divide between the north and south of
interested ends
Nigeria
Oil still generates the bulk of fiscal revenue
There has been some progress on economic reform over the past decade, but
Economic Structure and almost all export earnings, reflecting
significant deficiencies in the business environment remain, compounding
Risk the failure of successive governments to
underlying structural weaknesses in the public finances
undertake structural reform
Source: World Bank; Transparency International; EIU; Canback analysis 11Nigeria has seen rapid growth throughout the last twenty years. However, the
future growth will be dampened by the recession, which began in 2016
GDP EVOLUTION
1979-2029, Constant 2010 B NGN
Economic era Post-Independence Democracy
Next decade
1979-1999 2000-2018
CAGR by era 2.1% 5.8% 2.9%
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000 Forecast
0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032
1970 – 1999
2000 – 2018 2019 –
After the 1967-70 civil war, an oil boom supported the
Eras
Substantial economic reforms, in GDP growth rate is projected
strengthening of the central government. Dependence on
conjunction with rising oil prices and output, to be low throughout the next
petroleum paired with falling oil output and prices led to declines in
led GDP per capita to almost double decade
GDP per capita during the late ’70s and early ’80s
Source: Bloomberg; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 12In the next decade, Nigeria will experience lower growth rate than the average of
both comparison countries and the whole world
EXPECTED ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE* PROJECTED GDP
2019-2029 2019-2029 CAGR
Each dot represents one country
8.0% Uganda 7.7%
7.5% Uganda Nigeria
Ghana
7.0% Other countries Ethiopia 6.5%
Ethiopia Angola
6.5% Cote d’Ivoire Other countries
Cote d’Ivoire 5.9%
6.0%
5.5%
Kenya Kenya 5.7%
5.0%
GDP growth
2019-2029
4.5% Cameroon 4.8%
4.0%
Cameroon Regional average
3.5% Ghana 4.8%
3.0% Global average
2.5% Nigeria Angola 3.2%
2.0%
Nigeria 2.9%
1.5% Sudan
1.0%
South Africa 1.8%
0.5%
South Africa
0.0% Sudan 1.1%
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
GDP / Capita Equatorial
-2.9%
2019, Constant 2010 PPP$ Guinea
Typically, the higher the GDP per capita is of a country, the harder it is for
that country to grow its economy
* Trend-curve is generated by applying nonlinear regression on GDP growth and GDP per capita of 212 countries since 1980; weighted based on population
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 13Nigeria’s income per capita growth was near the top of its comparison group in
2019, but projected to increase significantly over the next decade
HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER CAPITA EVOLUTION FOR COMPARISON COUNTRIES
2009-2029, constant 2010 PPP$*
2009 Growth p.a. 2019 Projected growth p.a. 2029
’09-’19 ’19- ’29
United States 35,805 1.5% 41,391 1.0% 45,853
South Africa 7,771 0.8% 8,412 0.8% 9,089
Equatorial Guinea 7,534 -0.2% 7,388 -5.7% 4,123
Ghana 2,683 4.7% 4,234 2.7% 5,538
Nigeria 4,074 -2.2% 3,274 0.3% 3,395
Kenya 2,175 3.4% 3,028 3.3% 4,196
Cote d’Ivoire 1,831 4.0% 2,708 3.3% 3,753
Angola 2,342 1.3% 2,670 0.1% 2,688
Cameroon 2,195 1.6% 2,568 2.3% 3,221
Sudan 2,396 -1.1% 2,142 -1.2% 1,895
Tanzania 1,366 2.4% 1,733 2.8% 2,287
Uganda 1,419 1.1% 1,580 4.4% 2,438
Ethiopia 743 3.2% 1,022 4.2% 1,543
* Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars, the metric used for cross-country comparisons
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 14We now turn to socioeconomic and demographic perspectives on Nigeria. We use
socioeconomic levels as described below
• Multimillionaires with inherited wealth
• Owning rent-producing properties
UPPER CLASS (AB) • Living in ostentatious luxury
• Residences located in exclusive residential neighborhoods
• High-level executives or professionals at large firms
• Same consumption habits as upper class, but constrained by income
UPPER MIDDLE CLASS (C+) • Own or rent residence in residential zone
• Members of first-class clubs and organizations
• Professionals, executives or employees of mid-sized businesses
• Living in comfortable style
MIDDLE CLASS (C) • Able to easily meet their primary needs
• Reside in detached houses or modern buildings in middle-housing area
• Employees of small business or informal company
• Live in heavily populated area
LOWER MIDDLE CLASS (D+) • Live in apartment building or small detached houses
• Able to meet their primary needs
• Low-level worker at small company
• Almost no convenience goods
LOWER CLASS (D) • Barely able to meet primary needs
• Living in heavily populated area or informal housing
• Informal work or unemployed
• Large family size
MARGINALIZED CLASS (E) • Living outside urban centers in makeshift huts
• Barely any convenience goods
Source: AMAI; ZonaLatina; Canback analysis 15On a global scale, Nigeria is a lower middle income country. Over the next 20
years, there won’t be significant changes in its income distribution
GLOBAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION
2019, Constant PPP$*
200
Asia
Millions of households
Nigeria average household
Europe
150 income 2019 = PPP$ 15,357
Africa
N America
100
S America
Oceania
50
0
100
10,000
100,000
1,000
1,000,000
Household
income
(log scale)
NIGERIA HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION
10 1979-2039, Constant PPP$*
Nigeria 1979
Millions of households
8 Nigeria 2019
Nigeria 2039
6
4
2
Household
0 income
100
10,000
100,000
1,000
1,000,000
(log scale)
* Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 16The richest 6% of Nigerians earn 30.4% of total income. The income of the upper
and upper-middle classes is nearly 12 times that of the lowest decile
INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY SOCIOECONOMIC GROUP NIGERIA INCOME PER CAPITA
2019, % 2019, NGN, by decile*
Population Income Associated Population
Share Share SEL Decile
Upper 0.8% 1.8% Upper,
3.1% 8.9% upper middle
Upper middle 90-100% 1,406,768
9.7% and Middle
Middle 10.0%
Lower 80% 677,353
Lower middle
middle
Lower 15.2% 11.4%
Lower 70% 565,436
21.6% 60% 461,870
50% 366,655
19.3% 40% 299,050
Marginalized 69.3% Marginalized
30% 259,054
Corresponding to
Nigerian Gini
20% 195,624 index of 43.0
28.8%
0-10% 115,073
2019 2019
* Average income by socioeconomic level (SEL) in Nigeria
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 17In the next decade, per capita income will be stagnant, leading to similar SEL
growth going forward
INCOME PER CAPITA GROWTH BY SEL SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL DISTRIBUTION
Constant 2010 NGN 2019-2029 CAGR 2009-2029, %
0.9%
Upper 3.4% 1.4% 0.9% Upper
-2.2% 2.0%
2.9%
+0.3% Upper middle
272,645 3.4% 3.6%
4.4% 2.1%
Upper middle 3.3% 2.0%
3.5% Middle
218,803 226,028 Lower middle
Middle 3.1% 12.1%
16.5%
16.8% Lower
Lower middle 8.4%
Lower 2.8%
17.4%
Marginalized 2.3%
75.2%
73.1% Marginalized
2009 2019 2029 61.9%
The analysis is based on the international definition of SEL’s adapted from an association of
research agencies (AMAI) in order to provide a standardized basis for cross-country
comparisons. The current socioeconomic level index groups individuals in six levels based on
an assignment tree considering 13 variables 2009 2019 2029
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 18The branded goods consuming class will increase by almost 3% CAGR in the next
decade; population of the marginalized class will grow significantly
POPULATION BY SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS*
1979-2039, millions 2019-2029, millions
220
Marginalized
200 +3.2%
32.0
180
160 Forecast
140
23.2
120
100
80
Lower
60
Lower middle
40 Middle
20 Upper middle
Upper
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Over the next 20 years, classes of all socioeconomic levels will increase in absolute terms, with 2019 2029
marginalized class increasing the fastest whereas the growth rate of other classes are relatively similar.
Apart from that, the branded goods consuming class in Nigeria will boom by 32% throughout the next
decade, making Nigeria a better FMCG market.
* Branded goods are assumed to be consumed by lower middle class and above (i.e., lower middle + middle + upper middle + upper classes)
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 19The youth population will grow more in absolute terms than any other age group in
the next decade; share of each age category will be stable in next ten years
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AGE GROUP EVOLUTION
2009-2029, millions ‘18-’28 2019-2029, millions
CAGR
2.5% 257.8
Total population 150.3 195.9 251.6
5.0
55+ 6.8% 6.8% 7.2% 3.1% 5.4
45-54 6.3% 6.5% 5.5
7.2% 3.5%
9.0
35-44 9.4% 10.1% 10.0% 2.4%
7.9
25-34 14.3% 13.7% 14.2% 2.9%
24.0
19-24 11.0% 10.8% 201.0
11.5% 3.2%
Population in each age
classes will increase during
the next decade, with most
2.1% significant increasing in youth
0-18 52.2% 52.1% 49.9% bracket
2009 2019 2029 2019 0-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ 2029
Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis 20In West Africa, most of the largest cities are from Nigeria. The country has 50% of
its population living in urban areas and is expected to further urbanize
20 LARGEST URBAN CENTERS IN WESTERN AFRICA MOST URBANIZED WESTERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES
2019 Nigeria Other countries 2019-2029 urban share of population**
Population HCE*/capita Total HCE*
Country 2019 2029
M PPP$ ‘000 PPP$ B
Lagos 15.8 14.5 116.6 Mauritania 62.1% 66.5%
Port Harcourt 2.9 10.5 30.2
Gambia 61.8% 65.7%
Ibadan 3.6 7.8 27.9
Abidjan 5.6 4.5 25.1 Cote d'Ivoire 56.9% 62.6%
Kumasi 3.1 7.0 21.4
7.1 19.9 Ghana 56.5% 62.1%
Abuja 2.8
Kano 4.0 4.0 15.9 Nigeria 51.7% 59.0%
Accra 2.5 6.5 15.9
Dakar 4.1 3.3 13.4 Liberia 51.3% 55.8%
Benin City 1.7 6.0 10.2
Benin 45.8% 50.8%
Aba 1.1 8.3 8.9
Uyo 1.1 7.8 8.3 Senegal 45.2% 49.8%
Bamako 3.1 2.6 8.1
Mali 42.9% 49.7%
Kaduna 1.1 6.8 7.7
Sekondi-Takoradi 0.9 8.2 7.0 Togo 42.0% 47.2%
Jos 0.9 6.9 6.2
Conakry 2.2 Sierra Leone 41.5% 46.2%
2.8 6.1
Warri 0.8 7.3 5.9 Guinea 39.2% 44.6%
Owerri 0.8 6.4 5.4
Ouagadougou 3.5 5.3 Burkina Faso 33.1% 40.4%
1.5
* HCE stands for household consumption expenditure. 2010 constant exchange rate used
** Urban population as a percentage of total population
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 21Throughout the next ten years, Nigeria will urbanize faster than its peers, with the
majority of the population growth being found in urban areas
NIGERIA POPULATION BREAKDOWN SOURCE OF POPULATION GROWTH
2019, millions 2009-2029, millions
Total: 201 +2.5% CAGR
257.8
Major cities* 20.9
42.6 27.3
+2.7% CAGR
(21.2%)
201.0 8.6
12.7
97.0 Rural 24.3
(48.3%)
154.4 9.6
61.3
(30.5%)
2009 Rural Other Major 2019 Rural Other Major 2029
Other urban urban cities urban cities
URBANIZATION RATE
Lagos Rural countryside Nigeria Year on year, 1999-2029
Comparison countries** Forecast
4.3% 4.9% 4.1%
3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.6%
2.8%
1999 2009 2019 2029
* Cities with more than 500,000 residents
** Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Sudan
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 22Lagos has the largest branded goods consuming class in Nigeria. The top 14
cities will see an average rate of 4% growth in branded goods consuming class
BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS* BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS CAGR
SHARE BY MAJOR CITIES Population in 2019, ‘000 2019-2029e
2019, Nigeria
Lagos 5,533 3.0%
Kano Ibadan 1,766 4.0%
Zaria 4.7%
1.4% Port Harcourt 1,728 4.2%
Abuja 1,240 2.6%
Kaduna
2.4% Kano 1,092 3.8%
Jos
1.9% Kaduna 546 3.8%
Abuja Yola
5.3% 1.3% Benin City 512
Ibaban Yola 4.0%
7.6% 1.3%
Uyo 487 4.3%
Benin City Aba 467 3.6%
2.2% Owerri
1.2% Aba Jos 442
2.0% 3.7%
Warri 420 4.4%
Warri
Uyo Zaria 316
1.8% 3.7%
Lagos 2.1%
23.8% Port Harcourt Yola 294
4.1%
7.4%
Owerri 285
4.4%
* Branded goods are assumed to be consumed by lower middle class and above (i.e., lower middle + middle + upper middle + upper classes)
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis 23Port Harcourt has the highest share of affluent consumers. Over time, the
country’s most well-off group will grow rapidly
SHARE OF POPULATION BY INCOME BRACKET Below NGN 250K NGN 250K - 750K Above NGN 750K
2019 '19-'29 cagr '19-'29 cagr '19-'29 cagr
Port Harcourt 1% 18% 80% -8.3% -10.5% 6.3%
Ibadan 3% 37% 60% -11.0% -8.7% 8.3%
Uyo 3% 37% 60% -10.5% -8.1% 8.8%
Aba 3% 37% 59% -10.5% -8.0% 8.4%
Lagos 3% 38% 59% -13.2% -10.4% 6.9%
Warri 4% 39% 57% -11.4% -7.7% 9.0%
Abuja 4% 39% 57% -14.0% -10.2% 6.8%
Jos 4% 40% 56% -11.6% -7.3% 8.7%
Kaduna 5% 40% 55% -12.3% -7.5% 8.7%
Owerri 5% 41% 53% -12.9% -7.1% 9.4%
Benin City 7% 43% 50% -13.7% -6.4% 9.6%
Zaria 7% 43% 50% -13.8% -6.5% 9.4%
Yola 15% 52% 33% -7.5% 3.5% 13.0%
Kano 16% 54% 30% -12.9% -0.6% 12.0%
Less than NGN 250K NGN 250K – 750K More than NGN 750K
NGN 250K and 750K were used as income cutoff points to illustrate how income brackets can meaningfully segment a population based on consumption power
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
24Canback Consulting is a global management consulting firm mainly working on
issues where quantitative analysis is central to success
Founded by Dr. Staffan Canback, we are an elite management
consulting firm.
We operate globally with the world’s largest companies as clients.
This has taken us to 89 countries since our founding in 2004.
The basis for our work is predictive analytics, applied with high
resolution, and informed by on-the-ground market observations.
Canback has five practices: Strategy, M&A Due Diligence, Sources of
Growth, Corporate Finance, and Performance Improvement.
We also offer analytic services with the Canback Global Income
Distribution Database (C-GIDD) as our cardinal product.
Canback is a subsidiary of The Economist Group since 2015.
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25Canback Consulting is probably the world’s smallest global company
CANBACK GLOBAL FOOTPRINT
Global projects
North America 28%
13%
Europe
7%
Asia-Pacific
11%
South America
21%
Offices
Country projects
Consultants’ work travel
Africa
20%
26Canback Contact information
AMERICAS
Boston Canback Headquarters Ying Li Chicago Canback USA Ivan Izus Torossian
210 Broadway, Suite 303 yli@canback.com 220 E Illinois street, Ste 209 itorossian@canback.com
Cambridge MA 02139 Chicago IL 60611
+1-617-399-1300 +1-312-498-1236
C-GIDD Canback C-GIDD Bobo Shen Mexico City Canback Mexico Francisco Maciel Morfin
210 Broadway, Suite 303 cgidd@canback.com Bosque de Ciruelos 194, PH3 fmaciel@canback.com
Cambridge MA 02139 Bosques de las Lomas
+1-617-399-1300 11700 Ciudad de México, D.F.
+52-1-55-4354-9806
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
London Canback Europe Caleb Darsch Johannes- Canback MEA Arshad Abba
20 Cabot Square cdarsch@canback.com burg Inanda Greens Business Park arshad_abba@canback.com
London E14 4QW Building 8
+44-20-7576-8181 54 Wierda Road West
Wierda Valley, Sandton, 2196
+27-10-590-5546
ASIA
Shanghai Canback China Casper Ye Jakarta Canback SE Asia Teddy Purnomo
Rm 2508A, 25/F, Rui Jin cye@canback.com Jl. Tiang Bendera 5 no. 2A tpurnomo@canback.com
Bldg DKI Jakarta 11230
205 Mao Ming South Rd +62-812-8743-7578
Shanghai 200020
+86-186-1627-0081 27You can also read
